Bad News for Mitt

Another poll of Ohio shows Obama ahead by 9 points. And early voting is about to start in the state.

About Mr. Sproul

Amidst the tempests of late September, the 2012 campaign this last week was hit by a thunderclap of schadenfreude, as the Republican Party, which has been using baseless claims of voter fraud to disenfranchise voters around the country, was itself embroiled in a scandal involving voter registration fraud. The story centers on a firm called Strategic Allied Consulting employed by the Republican National Committee to do voter registration work in Florida and other states. And the man behind Strategic is someone longtime TPM Readers will definitely remember: Nathan Sproul.

Now, before going any further, let’s clarify one point. Voter registration fraud is not vote fraud. The first is relatively common in the US and the later is extremely rare. And while both are criminal offenses and should be they are apples and oranges when it comes to affecting the outcome of elections.

The Bottom Line on Party ID

To understand the current ‘debate’ about party ID levels in 2012 polls, check out this chart below the fold. You can’t understand what’s going on without it.

More on TPMPrime: What Will It Cost?

This morning I introduced TPMPrime, the new membership section that will debut in October. We’ve had a great response so far. And many have asked: so what will it cost?

Good question.

Thompson/Baldwin Debate Live Blogging Pt. 3

9:48 PM: And now we’re on to the threat that the Asian Carp will take over the Great Lakes.

9:48 PM: Thompson: Alright, Carp! Get the hell outta here!

9:50 PM: Okay, if it comes down to who’s angrier at the Carp, I think Thompson’s taking this baby.

9:56 PM: Baldwin: “Tommy Thompson would voucherize Medicare.”

Thompson/Baldwin Debate Live Blogging Pt. 2

9:30 PM: And Baldwin goes in for the kill on Medicare. Though that’s really just my language. My like go in for the soft bonk on the head. Interestingly, more than hit Thompson’s comments she tied him to the Ryan plan. Very revealing.

9:32 PM: Curious how people see Thompson in the state right now. He really seems like he has codgerism in my book.

9:33 PM: Thompson first says it’s ridiculous to say he supports Ryan plan; then he says he supports the Ryan Plan.

9:35 PM: Someone must have told Thompson they’d kill his pet rabbit if he correctly pronounced any word having to do with Iran – just go ask AhmadineJohn or travel through the Strait of Hormuth.

9:38 PM: Yep, I’m sure. He’s got codgerism.

9:38 PM: What does Thompson mean he built a women’s hospital in Kabul?

9:41 PM: Baldwin sounds sort of unstated and low key, clear but a little uninspired. Thompson meanwhile is boisterous, direct but also sort of like a character in The Simpsons. Quite a contrast.

Thompson/Baldwin Debate Live Blogging

9:07 PM: Thompson starting off really trying to push against those ‘do away with Medicare/Medicaid’ remarks. Heavy emphasis on health care and women’s health care.

9:12 PM: Having watched a lot of crazy over the last two years, it’s sort of weird watching a debate with two fairly competent people making their case.

9:16 PM: Thompson comes off fairly well in this debate so far. But Thompson’s role in the Bush administration may be his achilles heel. Also not sure his chuckling at her while she’s talking works for him.

9:19 PM: “I’m a builder. I built Wisconsin.” Thompson just said that. That sounded sort of weird.

9:21 PM: Interesting. Thompson basically just came out for abolishing the filibuster … Baldwin basically agreed, though she was a bit more vague.

9:23 PM: Baldwin gets a question on Social Security, tries to shift it to Medicare (Thompson’s weak point).

9:24 PM: Thompson seems to really be leading with a glass jaw on Medicare. Is it considered too mean in Wisconsin for Baldwin to hit back?

9:25 PM: Weird, I’m being deluged by emails from the Thompson campaign. Zero from the Baldwin campaign.

9:26 PM: Maybe I don’t get Wisconsin politics. Thompson said a few days ago – or the tape was released a few days ago – showing him saying he wanted to do away with Medicare. He just said he’d save it. No response from Baldwin. Guess maybe she doesn’t think she needs to?

Thompson/Baldwin Debate

In moments the Thompson/Baldwin debate begins on CSPAN. I’ll be liveblogging here. If you’re watching, email me or tweet me your thoughts.

Interestingly, intro to debate was apparently based on a late 1970s Second City TV episode.

Introducing TPMPrime

Today I’m proud to announce TPMPrime, a new Membership section designed for our most passionate, core readers. Do you visit TPM multiple times a day? (You can admit it, you’re among friends.) Is TPM a critical part of your news diet? Is TPM important to you? Then TPMPrime is designed for you.

Just so we’re crystal clear: this is not a paywall and never will be. Everything you see here on TPM today will continue to be here free to everyone. That won’t ever change.

This is different. Please join me after the jump to learn more.

Unskewing the Polls

Have you heard of “unskewing” the polls? Meet the conservative heartthrob behind unskewedpolls.com.

As I’ve noted before, having been through several of these cycles, if you’re theory is based on systemic error on the part of basically all pollsters, you’re in for a long election night.

Tommy Thompson Makes The Case For ‘Doing Away’ With Fact Checkers

If you haven’t heard much about Tommy Thompson’s super subtle primer on “doing away” with Medicare and Medicaid, it’s probably because Thompson had already been in free fall for weeks when his remarks first surfaced.

But I wanted to very briefly propose that, whatever the incident’s impact on that race, it should once and for all put to rest the Fact-Checker stoked “dispute” about what the GOP’s plans for Medicare and Medicaid really are.

If before 2011 you understood how these programs functioned and knew the history of conservative disdain for them, nothing Paul Ryan and House Republicans did or said that year came as a huge surprise. Phasing out Medicare and replacing it with vouchers to buy private insurance has been a conservative goal since before Newt Gingrich wanted it to “wither on the vine.”

I Mean, WTF?

Todd Akin consultant compares Akin’s resolve to suicidal cult extremist David Koresh’s.