Quick Note on the Peril of Crosstabs

I’m seeing a lot of people second guessing the Pew poll because of things like party ID and similar characteristics in the cross-tabs. A word of advice: don’t.

Please, No Mind Loss

Okay, I’m seeing people write some really wild stuff about today’s polls and the state of the race. And that’s putting it mildly. For myself, I don’t buy it. The first debate was clearly a major pivot point in the race. But all the data I’m seeing – including today’s Pew poll – are consistent with the idea that Romney got a solid bump out of the debate which then started to fade over the weekend. As I noted this morning, all the tracking polls seem to point to this conclusion.

Also remember, challengers generally have good showings in the first debate and the incumbent frequently underwhelms. That often leads to at least a near term gain in the polls for the challenger.

So What’s It Mean?

So what’s the deal with the polls?

As you can see, Pew released a poll this afternoon that had Romney 4 points ahead of Barack Obama. That really is a big number. Not just because I don’t think any major poll has had Romney with that kind of margin ever but also because it’s Pew. These things aren’t a matter of bias. Pew is an extremely well respected and rightly respected poll. But in this cycle, on balance, if there are a handful of polls, Pew’s will generally lean more toward Obama than the others. So this is by no means a poll that shows any anti-Obama lean.

On The Other Hand!

New Pew poll shows Romney with a 4 point margin!

What makes this especially notable is that Pew has generally had numbers quite favorable to Obama through the campaign. The results also seem contrary to the latest we’re seeing in the daily tracking polls.

Buckle up.

Feel. The. Magic.

At the request of many- I will be doing live tweets during the next presidential debate.

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 8, 2012

Your Daily Tea Leaf(s)

Perhaps demanding from the numbers more than they are able to give, I posted each day over the weekend what the polls seemed to be showing about the post-debate environment. Today’s numbers provide some encouraging signs for President Obama.

Romney, Phoney

Romney on Israel/Palestine.

Foreign Policy Speech …

Finally, I will recommit America to the goal of a democratic, prosperous Palestinian state living side by side in peace and security with the Jewish state of Israel. On this vital issue, the President has failed, and what should be a negotiation process has devolved into a series of heated disputes at the United Nations. In this old conflict, as in every challenge we face in the Middle East, only a new President will bring the chance to begin anew.

Private Fundraiser …

“I look at the Palestinians not wanting to see peace anyway, for political purposes, committed to the destruction and elimination of Israel, and these thorny issues, and I say there’s just no way … the Palestinians have no interest whatsoever in establishing peace and that the pathway to peace is almost unthinkable to accomplish … [S]o what you do is, you say, you move things along the best way you can. You hope for some degree of stability, but you recognize that this is going to remain an unsolved problem…and we kick the ball down the field and hope that ultimately, somehow, something will happen and resolve it.”

Looking at You, Ohio

Some great shots of the presidential battle for Ohio. How can you not like this one?

Oh, And One More Thing

I’ll keep this brief. If you’re planning on joining TPMPrime or thinking about it, can you take a moment right now and do it today? It’s quick. It’s not much, less than 15 cents a day for an annual membership ($50 for a year). It gets you access to all the benefits and features of TPMPrime and lets you strengthen and improve this site you visit multiple times a day (if you do). We’re coming up on our goal of 3,000 signed up members. The more members we get signed up pre-launch the better for budgeting, planning and so forth. Help us make this happen. Click here to sign up.

And thanks for being part of our enterprise.

Gallup Tracking Poll Shows Dead-Even Race

Gallup has released new numbers showing Romney going from a 5-point deficit (50-45) to Obama in the three days before last week’s debate to a 47-47 tie in the three days after the debate.

Rasmussen’s lastest tracking poll is also just out and shows a 48-48 dead heat.

More details on the post-debate polling trends here.

ICYMI

SpaceX’s Dragon capsule was successfully launched last night on the first cargo resupply mission by a private company to the International Space Station.

PPP: Obama Still Leads In Virginia

Small movement in Romney’s direction in Virginia post-debate, according to the latest PPP poll.