President Obama arrives at Cleveland Airport; 12,000 people roar

All of the pearl-clutching over the close polls was beginning to give me a nervous twitch last night. Then I caught this video of the president arriving at his final stop in his 48-hour, 8-state tour - Cleveland, Ohio.

The roar of the crowd as Air Force One rolled up on the tarmac was amazing, and their energy didn't abate for the entire rally. It reminded me of 2008, when crowds gathered in epic numbers to get a glimpse of him on the stump, and the electricity that seemed to follow him wherever he went.

But I do recall being nervous in 2008, even though the polls were clearly pointing toward an easy win. Why? Because of Ohio. It's always Ohio, it seems. So let's have a look at what the pundits and papers were saying back 4 years ago today, on October 26, 2008, about Ohio:

Toledo Blade headline: McCain goes for broke to keep Ohio 'red'

This weekend s Ohio Newspaper Poll shows the race for Ohio to be a statistical dead heat with a slight edge for Mr. Obama in a state that Mr. McCain characterizes as a must-win for himself if he is to capture the White House.

Cleveland Plain Dealer: Poll gives Obama slight lead in Ohio

Ohio voters, wrong only twice when picking the president in the last 108 years, remain nearly split over their choice for the White House, according to a new Ohio Newspaper Poll.

But while the race remains a statistical dead heat, more voters are siding with Democrat Barack Obama, who has erased Republican John McCain's previous lead in Ohio and now holds a 3-point advantage, 49 percent to 46 percent.

TimesofMalta.com: Battleground States

Herb Asher, a political science professor at Ohio State University in Columbus, and an expert on Ohio politics, believes that although the polls are pointing to an Obama victory in Ohio, it is still up for grabs.

"It will be a close election here," Prof. Asher says.

Obama's ground operation and push for early voting was credited with keeping him in play in Ohio. Patrick Gaspard, executive director of the DNC, released some numbers in a memo Thursday pointing at key statistics for Ohio:

• There is no party registration in Ohio, but counties and precincts that Obama won in 2008 are voting early at a higher rate than GOP counties and precincts
• In counties that Obama won in 2008, 10% of registered voters have already cast ballots. In GOP counties, only 7% of registered voters have cast ballots
• Voters from precincts that voted for Obama in 2008 have cast 408,788 ballots (53%) in 2012 compared with just 355,388 ballots (47%) from GOP precincts
• The difference (D +53,400) is 80% higher than the difference at this time four years ago (D +29,706)

And how did Ohio turn out in 2008? Barack Obama won it 51/47, with less voters voting early.

But this is 2012, you say, and Barack Obama has been beaten up by recalcitrant Republicans and evil tea partiers? Yes, it is. But the numbers and the reports are there for anyone to see. What it tells me is what I've been saying all along: If turnout is high, we win. If we win, he wins.

If for nothing else, you have to give the 2008 and 2012 GOP tickets for getting their lines straight. On Thursday, John McCain rejoined Mitt Romney in support of embattled Indiana Republican Senate hopeful Richard Mourdock. That McCain would come around after accepting Mourdock's "apology" for proclaiming rape-induced pregnancies gifts from God should come as no surprise. After all, McCain like Romney is a former supporter of Roe v. Wade who turned anti-abortion champion in order to secure the Republican nomination. And as it turns out, McCain mocked the very idea of a "health of the mother" exception to the abortion ban his party demands. That's just like Paul Ryan, who dismissed it as "a loophole wide enough to drive a Mack truck through."

As this handy chart shows, in their perpetual quest to erase women's reproductive rights, Mourdock, Todd Akin and others among the GOP's best and not-so-brightest have been trying to "shut down" rape as a legitimate basis for abortion. But during an October 2008 debate with then Senator Barack Obama, John McCain used "air quotes" to dismiss "an exception for the mother's health and life" altogether:

"Just again, the example of the eloquence of Sen. Obama. He's [for] health for the mother. You know, that's been stretched by the pro-abortion movement in America to mean almost anything. That's the extreme pro-abortion position, quote, 'health.'"

As it turns out, McCain was just echoing the position of Mitt Romney's running mate, Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan.

Ryan's jaw-dropping disregard for the health and safety of American women came during the 2000 debate over the so-called "partial birth abortion" bill. As NPR explained, the very rare intact dilation and extraction (used only 2,200 times out of 1.3 million procedures performed in 2000) was resorted to precisely to protect the health of the woman in certain late-term pregnancies. The alternative, NPR noted, "can involve substantial blood loss and may increase the risk of lacerating the cervix, potentially undermining the woman's ability to bear children in the future."

Mitt Romney's new running mate was having none of it. During House debate on April 5, 2000, Wisconsin Rep. Tammy Baldwin told the House that "the women I have spoken to wanted nothing more than to have a child and were devastated to learn that their babies could not survive outside the womb. They made difficult decisions with their doctors and families to terminate pregnancies, to preserve their own health and in many cases their ability to try to have a child again." Afterwards, Paul Ryan rose to denounce that position:

Mr. Speaker. I just have to take issue with the comments that have been preceding this debate. This is not a political issue. This is a human issue. Let me just say this to all of my colleagues who are about to vote on this issue, on the motion to recommit. The health exception is a loophole wide enough to drive a Mack truck through it. The health exception would render this ban virtually meaningless.

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"It really is a worst-case scenario," one of the Weather Channel anchors said late last night. The forecast scared me enough to go out and buy a few items I normally wouldn't have: A windup radio/battery/charger, an electric lantern and a single-burner unit for a propane tank. I wish I had the money to buy a propane heater, because the storm is going to bring cold weather in its wake, and I'm not happy about the possibility of sitting in the cold and the dark.

This morning's update includes the European model forecast, which still sees a direct hit on the Delaware Bay. Since I live about a half-mile from the Delaware River, I'm worried about the potential for storm surge and flooding. There's no good way to predict what will happen, because no one's ever seen a storm like this before.

In the meantime, a friend of a friend who works in emergency services said in a call with the feds yesterday, they were told to prepare for two-week power outages along the East Coast -- which means no phone, no computer, and no heat. And that's the best case scenario. (As I've written before, power companies are chronically understaffed to keep stock prices up, and hire inexperienced temp workers to clean up after disasters.)

Maybe now that this puts Election Day at risk, we can start talking about global warming:

Hurricane Sandy, having blown through Haiti and Cuba on Thursday, continues to barrel north. A wintry storm is chugging across from the West. And frigid air is streaming south from Canada.

And if they meet Tuesday morning around New York or New Jersey, as forecasters predict, they could create a big wet mess that settles over the nation's most heavily populated corridor and reaches as far inland as Ohio.

With experts expecting at least $1 billion in damage, the people who will have to clean it up aren't waiting.

Utilities are lining up out-of-state work crews and canceling employees' days off to deal with the power outages. From county disaster chiefs to the federal government, emergency officials are warning the public to be prepared. And President Barack Obama was briefed aboard Air Force One.

"It's looking like a very serious storm that could be historic," said Jeff Masters, meteorology director of the forecasting service Weather Underground. "Mother Nature is not saying `trick-or-treat.' It's just going to give tricks."

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecaster Jim Cisco, who coined the nickname Frankenstorm, said: "We don't have many modern precedents for what the models are suggesting."

Government forecasters said there is a 90 percent chance - up from 60 percent two days earlier - that the East will get pounded starting Sunday and stretching past Halloween on Wednesday. Things are expected to get messier once Sandy, a very late hurricane in what has been a remarkably quiet season, comes ashore, probably in New Jersey.

Coastal areas from Florida to Maine will feel some effects, but the storm is expected to vent the worst of its fury on New Jersey and the New York City area, which could see around 5 inches of rain and gale-force winds close to 40 mph. Eastern Ohio, southwestern Pennsylvania, western Virginia and the Shenandoah Mountains could get snow.

And the storm will take its time leaving. The weather may not start clearing in the mid-Atlantic until the day after Halloween and Nov. 2 in the upper Northeast, Cisco said.

"It's almost a weeklong, five-day, six-day event," he said from a NOAA forecast center in College Park, Md. "It's going to be a widespread, serious storm."

It is likely to hit during a full moon, when tides are near their highest, increasing the risk of coastal flooding. And because many trees still have their leaves, they are more likely to topple in the event of wind and snow, meaning there could be widespread power outages lasting to Election Day.

Eastern states that saw blackouts that lasted for days after last year's freak Halloween snowstorm and Hurricane Irene in late August 2011 are already pressuring power companies to be more ready this time.

Asked if he expected utilities to be more prepared, Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick responded: "They'd better be."

Jersey Central Power & Light, which was criticized for its response to Irene, notified employees to be ready for extended shifts. In Pennsylvania, PPL Corp. spokesman Michael Wood said, "We're in a much better place this year."

Some have compared the tempest to the so-called Perfect Storm that struck off the coast of New England in 1991, but that one didn't hit as populated an area. Nor is this one like last year's Halloween storm, which was merely an early snowfall.

"The Perfect Storm only did $200 million of damage and I'm thinking a billion," Masters said. "Yeah, it will be worse."

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Actress Tiny Fey was seething on Wednesday as she try to express her outrage at recent comments by several Republican politicians about rape.

"I wish we could have an honest and respectful dialogue about these complicated issues," the comedienne told the Center for Reproductive Rights Inaugural Gala. "But it seems like we can’t right now. And if I have to listen to one more gray-faced man with a two-dollar haircut explain to me what rape is, I’m gonna lose my mind!"

Last month, Republican Missouri Senate candidate Todd Akin had asserted that women could not get pregnant through “legitimate rape.” And then Republican Indiana Senate candidate Richard Mourdock claimed on Tuesday that pregnancy from rape “is something that God intended to happen.”

"I watch these guys and I'm like, what is happening? Am I secretary on Mad Men?" Fey said on Wednesday. "What is happening?"

"Todd Akin. Oof. This guy," she continued. "Todd Akin claims that women can’t really get pregnant from a legitimate rape because the body secretes hormones. Now I can’t even finish this sentence without getting dumber; it’s making me dumber when I say it—but it’s something about the body not being able to get pregnant when it’s under physical stress."

"Mr. Akin, I think you are confusing the phrase ‘legitimate rape’ with the phrase ‘competitive gymnastics.’”

(h/t: BuzzFeed)

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The first email I saw today was written in an anguished tone by an anguished person. A friend who had been putting off seeing a doctor for what he knew to be a hernia finally became so wracked with pain he made the decision to go to the emergency room. He hoped they'd have a look and tell him they'd have him fixed up in no time. That didn't happen. This did:

The emergency room......put me on the street with a prescription & a referral.

I was afraid of this. He's been in pain for awhile, and we'd been urging him to get to a doctor or even the emergency room. Hernias aren't life-threatening unless they become strangulated. If that happens, immediate surgery is necessary to prevent gangrene from setting in.

I suppose my friend can take some solace in that, but he doesn't because he is still suffering. In a series of follow-up emails, I asked him to tell his story, not only about where he is in this whole stupid process, but how he got to this place. He's not the type to open up, so it took a series of questions and answers. Here are the high points about where he is in the process.

The ER gave me the WRONG number for Community Health Net. I had to call [them] back for the right number.

Community Health Net won't give me a "sliding-fee" appointment until I've applied for Medical Assistance & been denied.

Community Health Net is a community health clinic funded with federal dollars. Those are the clinics Bernie Sanders fought so hard for in the middle of the health care reform battle, and he won. Funding was stepped up considerably for those clinics, though Congress has tried very hard to pull that funding back in the last two years. According to their website, anyone who is uninsured can apply for reduced payment on a "sliding fee" scale according to their income and ability to pay.

But as you see from his response, there appears to be an additional requirement. It seems that he first must apply for insurance and be denied before they will see him on an "ability to pay" basis. Unless, of course, they are homeless and have joined the "health care for the homeless" program. Then they pay nothing.

My friend has a full-time job which requires him to spend long hours on his feet. His payscale is what one might expect for this kind of job, between $9 and $10 per hour. As his condition has gotten worse, he's found himself in a situation where he has to take short breaks and lay down on the floor to, as he says, "let everything slither back in."

Otherwise, he's in pain from the moment he stands up to the moment he sits down. Searing, debilitating gut pain. In his words:

I can't stay on my feet longer than half an hour or so due to the pain. I can't walk properly. I can't work without risking my guts tearing loose. I am disabled.

His job, of course, depends on him being able to stand up for more than 30 minutes at a time, and when he says he's disabled, that doesn't mean he's regarded as disabled for employment purposes.

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Leave it to good old John Sununu to say out loud what the rest of them only say in private. As a top surrogate for the Romney campaign they must have been thrilled to hear that. Here's what he said to Piers Morgan tonight on CNN.

SUNUNU: You have to wonder whether that’s an endorsement based on issues or that he’s got a slightly different reason for President Obama.

MORGAN: What reason would that be?

SUNUNU: Well, I think that when you have somebody of your own race that you’re proud of being President of the United States — I applaud Colin for standing with him.

Here's one for your Facebook page. It seems like Mitt Romney isn't the only Republican with Romnesia. Enjoy this collection of his current Republican boosted saying what they really think about the Mittster! Dear God, even Newt Gingrich is telling the truth.

With friends like these, huh, Mitt?

In endorsing President Obama this morning, Colin Powell slammed Mitt Romney’s foreign policy as a “moving target.” He said Romney hasn’t thought through national security issues, which is why he’s espousing the “very, very strong neo-conservative views” of his advisers and tried to change all of his extreme positions in the final presidential debate. Powell also cited the President’s leadership on job creation, immigration, education, and health care as reasons for endorsing the President.

"You know, I voted for him in 2008 and I plan to stick with him in 2012, and I'll be voting for he and Vice President Joe Biden next month," he said on CBS' "This Morning."

POWELL: I signed on for a long patrol with President Obama and I don't think this is the time to make such a sudden change. And not only am I not comfortable with what Governor Romney is proposing for his economic plan, I have concerns about his views on foreign policy. The Governor, who was speaking on Monday night at the debate, was saying things that were quite different from what he said earlier. So I'm not quite sure which Governor Romney we would be getting with respect to foreign policy.

O’DONNELL: What concerns do you have about Governor Romney's foreign policy?

POWELL: Well, it's hard to fix it. I mean, it's a moving target. One day he has a certain strong view about staying in Afghanistan, but then on Monday night he agrees with the withdrawal. Same thing in Iraq. On almost every issue that was discussed on Monday night, Governor Romney agreed with the President with some nuances. But this is quite a different set of foreign policy views than he had earlier in the campaign. And my concern, which I've expressed previously in a public way, is that sometimes I don't sense that he has thought through these issues as thoroughly as he should have, and he gets advice from his campaign staff that he then has to adjust to modify as he goes along.

ROSE: Are you concerned about the people that are advising Governor Romney?

POWELL: I think there's some very, very strong neo-conservative views that are presented by the Governor that I have some trouble with. There are other issues as well, not just the economy and foreign policy. I'm more comfortable with President Obama and his administration when it comes to issues like what are we going to do about climate, what are we going to do about immigration? What are we going to do about education? Lots of things like that. I do not want to see the new Obamacare plan thrown off the table. It has issues, you have to fix some things in that plan. But what I see when I look at that plan is 30 million of our fellow citizens will now be covered by insurance. And I think that's good. We're one of the few nations in the world, with our size, population and wealth, that does not have universal health care.

It's Friday, and we're entering the sunset of Romney's political career. And I do love a good sunset, no matter where it is.

The Consumerist Manifesto: Romney: Yachts for the Navy

The Reaction: The view from Massachusetts: An interview with Michael Dukakis

Minesota Progressive Project: Conflict of Interest? David Hann, GOP Health Insurance Salesman

Legal Schnauzer: Romney Might Prove That Ted And Randall Rollins Aren't The Only Rich Guys Who Lie Under Oath

Round up by Swimgirl.(tweeter @miamiswimmer) Send tips to mbru AT crooksandliars DOT com

The USA is 39th in the world for voter turnout. Ian Rhett (who offers a free download of this song at the link) wants you to know why change is coming whether you vote or not, so if you want a say in HOW it changes, vote.

Open Thread below....