Needlenose

CNN articleA new poll has what seems to be good news for anyone frustrated by the apparent lack of public concern over the problems with the U.S. occupation in Iraq:

The number who said things are going well has dipped from 86 percent in early May to 56 percent, and the number that say [they're going] badly has grown from 13 percent to 42 percent.

. . . . The public continues to show support for both the president, with a 61 percent job approval rating in this poll, and the overall Iraq effort.

. . . . The number that expects the United States to find weapons of mass destruction, however, has dropped from 84 percent in late March to 53 percent now.

Almost four in 10 say they believe the Bush administration deliberately misled the public about whether Iraq had weapons of mass destruction, while six in 10 say they do not believe that.

More than half, 53 percent, say it would matter a great deal to them if they became convinced the Bush administration deliberately misled the public on that subject.

On the surface, this looks like “progress” in communicating the reality of what’s happening in Iraq — you might think that perhaps, with a little effort (and maybe a continuing flow of bad news), the ranks of those questioning the Bushites will continue to grow exponentially.

But take a closer look, and you’ll see that the number of people who say that things are going badly, disapprove of Bush’s performance, and think they were misled about WMD is roughly about 40 percent in each case . . . in all likelihood, these are merely progressives who would be disinclined to back Bush anyway, “coming home to roost” after perhaps feeling obligated to support the president during the pre-guerrilla phase of the war.

The real question is, are more conservative Americans starting to have doubts, too (in other words, is Tacitus the start of a trend)? If not, what will it take to get those who are less naturally disposed to question Dubya’s policies to open their eyes?

A Dean supporter (whom I won’t bother to name) forwarded me this email this morning:

History Will Be Made Today

Dear Friend,

As I sit here writing this, I find myself searching for the right words, the right way to explain what has happened, how it happened, and why today is so important.

History is being made. The last eight days and today will be written about for years, and go down in Presidential campaign history as the nine days that changed the 2004 campaign for President, produced a politics of meaning, and a new kind of campaign powered by people. . . .

What was the author (Dean’s campaign manager) talking about?

His candidate’s second-quarter fundraising totals. Which are great news, granted . . . but is this what a purportedly anti-establishment campaign (especially one dedicated to a “politics of meaning”) supposed to go around touting as “history”?

I guess Dean has become a mainstream candidate in more ways than one!

Quotes from two separate articles in the Los Angeles Times this morning:

“You have to go in and tell them: ‘We’re gonna do what we did in Germany and Japan. We’re gonna write your constitution. We’re gonna install your government. We’re gonna write your laws. We’re gonna watch your every move for a decade, and then maybe you’ll get a chance to do it yourself.’”

– An anonymous “senior military official in Washington”

“The people say to me that the Americans will stay forever. ‘It’s not true,’ I tell them. ‘We don’t want to occupy Iraq. We want to get home to our families.’ But, you know, I don’t think a lot of them believe me.”

–Abdel Jamila, an Arabic-speaking native of Morocco serving in the U.S Army in Iraq

Is it any wonder that the macho talk of a long-term, authoritarian occupation comes from the guy in an air-conditioned office in Washington, D.C.?

It’s getting harder to miss the bad news that keeps coming out of Iraq. And the trends we’ve identified before are continuing to develop. This Los Angeles Times story on Friday’s attacks includes the following details:

The latest attack took place Friday night when a U.S. Army soldier was killed and four others wounded in Sadr City, a neighborhood of the capital . . .

In Najaf, about 100 miles south of Baghdad, a U.S. soldier from the 1st Marine Expeditionary Force was killed in an ambush . . .

In northwestern Baghdad, a soldier was critically wounded in an ambush shortly before Friday afternoon prayers in the predominantly Shiite Muslim neighborhood of Kadhimiya, a place that had largely welcomed U.S. troops . . .

The important common element here is that all of these attacks took place in Shiite areas, where once violent resistance in Iraq was limited to the Sunni Muslim-dominated regions.

This may not mean that the Shiite population is in open rebellion — one of the leading Shiite clerics is quoted in the same article as saying, “Violence must be the last solution . . . The beginning must be negotiations and peaceful demonstrations” (which I guess qualifies as good news under the circumstances!).

But it at least suggests that the conscious strategy of the Sunni resistance has shifted so that they are playing Johnny-Appleseed-with-grenades in Shiite areas rather than their home towns so as to avoid being rooted out by American retaliation — and to spread the steadily growing discontent ever wider. As soon as overanxious U.S. troops make a blunder like killing a 12-year-old boy in a Shiite neighborhood, it no longer matters who started the cycle of violence.

Meanwhile, in a typically decisive-but-counterproductive move by Jerry Bremer, the U.S has decided to cancel local elections across Iraq, thereby ensuring that only America and Britain are blamed for ongoing problems. Immediately after Baghdad fell, rumors spread among Iraqis that the collapse happened so quickly, Saddam Hussein must have been in league with the Americans . . . but subsequent events keep making it look like the other way around.

elections canceled
LAT on attacks in Shiite areas
WMD incompetence
NYT’s Gordon on sabotage strategy
Iraqi mood deteriorating

Hey, it’s news quiz time! Here’s a quote from a news story:

Asked where he got his information, he said: “From authentic sources. Many authentic sources.”

. . . . “The time is not ripe yet to say what happened. When’s history is ready, then we can talk about it,” he said.

Now the quiz — who was speaking, and what was he talking about? Was it . . .

(A) Former Iraqi information minister Mohammed Saeed al-Sahhaf on his fantastic claims during the fall of Baghdad, or

(B) A Bush administration official talking about the ongoing search for weapons of mass destruction in Iraq?

Good luck!!

   

Let me start out by saying, for the record, that I hate Gray Davis. He is a quintessential, self-serving political hack, who has managed to float to the top of California’s Democratic leadership. I hated him long before he became Governor. Voting for him in the last election was the hardest vote I’ve ever cast. And as Governor, while I admit that he’s inherited much of the mess, or had it imposed upon him by über-Partisan George “Screw Progressive California” Bush, I also concede that rather than making things better he has further screwed things up .

But are Issa, Bill Simon and Arnold Schwarzenegger – in a state of 34 million+ inhabitants – the best candidates that Republicans can offer? A serial car thief, a man who defrauds his business partner of $78 million (whose overturned verdict is again under appeal) and a bad, imported actor?

The irony is, one or more of this mega-millionaires can easily hope to buy the California governorship, mid-term, in a flagrant abuse of the recall process. The issue that the putative office-thief is going to face, though, is that the recall is a double-edged sword. I pledge that, on the day following a Republican ‘win’ in the recall election, I will immediately form a “Recall [Name of Jackass Here]” campaign and start collecting signatures for his/her elimination.

The California Republican party is acting like a bunch of spoiled brats – between their regressive ideology and lack of organization, they can’t elect a Republican in progressive California, so they’ll throw a tantrum and spoil the party for the rest of us. Serving the public interest? I don’t think so.

Badr Brigades
Secular Iraqis uneasy
AP on attacks, 11-year-old boy
LAT on attacks
If you’re reading this weblog, you probably follow the news fairly closely. You’re probably on top of the facts enough to have some sense of when the government says things that don’t match up with them.

And you’re also meaningless — at least as far as this administration is concerned.

Don’t believe me? Get a load of what they told the New York Times in a story this morning:

The White House said today that an Iraqi scientist who led American forces to blueprints and prototype equipment for enriching uranium claimed Saddam Hussein had intended to revive his nuclear program as soon as the United Nations lifted sanctions against Iraq.

. . . . Mr. Fleischer described the equipment as “a template for what would have been needed to rebuild their centrifuge enrichment program.” He said the plan, according to Dr. Obeidi, was to dig them up after sanctions were lifted, when it would be easier for Iraq to obtain the high-tech materials it would need to restart its weapons program.

“What was under the garden would have saved them several years and million of dollars in reconstituting their work,” [a] senior official said today.

Now, to the reporter’s credit, the article quickly debunks these glib statements each time:

Today the International Atomic Energy Agency said the fact that the stash remained untouched was evidence that Iraq had not resumed its nuclear program since inspections began after the Persian Gulf War.

. . . . To enrich uranium — a process that North Korea and Iran have well under way, according to American intelligence officials — Mr. Hussein would have needed hundreds or thousands of precisely machined centrifuges, arrayed together.

But so what? Millions of ordinary Americans who catch only a headline or a snippet of the TV news won’t get these nuances. They’ll see or hear the words “Hussein Planned to Revive Nuclear Program”, and it’ll become another commonly accepted “fact” to join the crowds toppling Saddam’s statue, the links between Iraq and the Sept. 11th terrorist attacks, the heroism of Jessica Lynch, and so on.

Sitting up close, you can see the strings and wires behind the scenery, the makeup on the actors, the unrealistic and overly broad gestures. But to the folks in the cheap seats, who aren’t paying so much attention, it’s all too believable.

You ever wonder just how ingrained, how instinctive the impulse to disinform is among the people running the U.S. occupation in Iraq? Consider this Reuters story:

A U.S. soldier was shot and critically wounded in Baghdad on Friday, in the latest of a spate of attacks on coalition occupation forces.

“A soldier with the 352nd Civil Affairs command was shot and critically wounded today near Kazimiyah mosque while conducting a civil affairs assessment in the area,” a U.S. military spokesman said.

. . . . Witnesses had earlier told Reuters that the soldier was shot in the head while buying digital video discs in a Kazimiyah street.

The shop owner, who refused to give his name, said the soldier had come into the DVD shop in the northwest of the city at around 11 a.m. and picked up two discs.

“He took out dollars from his pocket and as I looked at the money I heard a bang. He froze and then fell backwards,” the owner told Reuters Television. “Two other soldiers came in, picked him up and took him away.”

Other witnesses corroborated the owner’s version.

I’d say more, but I’m hungry and need to go conduct a “civil affairs assessment” of a local restaurant . . .

…according to the just-released MoveOn primary poll, it looks like Dean resonates more strongly with the online progressive crowd than the other dudes:

BRAUN           7021    2.21%
DEAN         139360   43.87%
EDWARDS    10146    3.19%
GRAHAM        7113    2.24%
KERRY         49973   15.73%
KUCINICH    76000   23.93%
GEPHARDT     7755     2.44%
LIEBERMAN    6095     1.92%
SHARPTON     1677     0.53%
OTHER           6121     1.93%
UNDECIDED   6378     2.01%
                 317647  100.00%

But as Swopa might say, it’s too early to count anybody out (except maybe Braun & Sharpton). There’s probably lots of progressive folks who’ve never even heard of MoveOn and could easily steer the race in another direction. It is nice to have a forum in which to express a pre-primary opinion, even if it is just a progressive PAC. Ultimately, though, it’s probably more important to get involved with the local Democratic party club and champion the public interest within the party.

Rubin editorial

“More than five hours after a grenade attack Thursday in southern Baghdad on a U.S. military convoy that injured two U.S. soldiers, Iraqi citizens were still gathered around the smoldering skeletons of American trucks, chanting, ‘Iraq is strong! Iraq will make them pay!’“

– From a Knight-Ridder article on yesterday’s attacks

Did somebody say escalation? ‘Cause that’s what it sure looks like:

American troops and helicopters scoured the desert Thursday for two U.S. soldiers who were apparently abducted from an observation post north Baghdad. Ambushes and hostile fire elsewhere in Iraq killed two U.S. soldiers and two Iraqi civilians and wounded eight other Americans.

A day after a U.S. Marine was killed responding to an ambush on Americans, reports of attacks on U.S. troops appeared almost hourly – too frequent for military press officers to keep up with. Most of the information came from witnesses at the attack scenes.

Between Wednesday and Thursday, assailants blew up a U.S. military vehicle with a roadside bomb, dropped grenades from an overpass, destroyed a civilian SUV traveling with U.S. troops, demolished an oil pipeline and fired an apparent rocket-propelled grenade at a U.S. Army truck.

Officials played down the violence, but with shattered glass, blood stains and mangled vehicles littering the landscape, the upsurge in attacks is causing concern that the U.S.-led occupation of Iraq could be turning into a guerrilla war.

The latest running total for the day is 2 dead (likely 4, when the kidnapped U.S. soldiers turn up), 9 wounded. “Mission Accomplished,” Mr. President? Really?!?

Meanwhile, in a fresh dispatch from the Department of Understatement, a consulting firm advising companies that may invest in Iraq is telling them:

“It is pretty unlikely that the kind of liberal capitalist democracy that has been talked about is going to emerge any time soon.”

Wonder how much they charge for advice like that?