Jim Pendergraph and 287(g)

Jim Pendergraph was sheriff of Mecklenburg County and was the first to sign up for the 287(g) program in North Carolina. He did not like the Op-Ed I wrote about the program and wrote a letter to the News & Observer. He apparently thinks I make stuff up, because he finds it "difficult to believe" the direct quote from ICE that I got from the January 2009 GAO report, which he has obviously not read. He also believes that there is no problem with the relationship between law enforcement and the Latino community because there is "no verifiable evidence" that people are afraid.

Given his prominent position in all this, I was disappointed the response was this weak.

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Vice President No

Two days ago I wrote about how Joe Biden announced that the administration did not have plans to end the Cuba embargo. Now he also says that there are no immediate plans for immigration reform, something that Central American leaders are very interested in (and they are particularly concerned about the number of deportations, which their economies cannot handle).

The overall theme of his Latin America trip has been "cooperation," and I've heard lots of pleasantries. However, the real message at the moment seems to be that the U.S. isn't planning on doing anything.

So I guess we shouldn't be too surprised that while the Obama administration talks nice and does nothing, the Argentine government decided to get Chinese help to shore up the peso.

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Encyclopedia of U.S.-Latin American Relations

CQ Press is putting together an Encyclopedia of U.S.-Latin American Relations, and they still need some authors. If anyone out there is interested, here is the relevant info:

UNASSIGNED ARTICLES – NEED AUTHORS!

We have begun a final push to assign the remaining entries for EUSLA and hope to enlist you and your colleagues to aid in this effort! Assigning articles for an encyclopedia is a continuous process as contributors sign on and, for various reasons, may choose to sign off. Please consult the complete list of unassigned articles that is attached to this newsletter, or visit our project’s Sharepoint site at the following address to view the most current list:

Authors.cqpress.com/latin america

When prompted, enter the username: latinamerica

And the password: read

Additionally, if you know of people who would be interested in writing for the Encyclopedia, please refer them to Tim Arnquist or Liza Baron (at eusla@cqpress.com).

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Back Channels

My friend and political science colleague Jim Walsh has started a new blog examining terrorism and other bad things, called Back Channels. So check it out. He's not a Latin Americanist but I don't hold that against him.

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More on that Mexican "exodus"

The Houston Chronicle has another "exodus to Mexico" story. I am trying to keep an open mind about this, but I am still waiting for a good argument to convince me that it is actually occurring.

One problem is simply the reporting, which I have mentioned before. This particular article opens with the story of a guy who is making much less than in Mexico than he did in Houston. So he chose to do this? Actually, no.

Pichardo said he is not likely to make the dangerous journey to cross the Texas-Mexico border since he has restarted his life in his home state of Guanajuato. He returned home in September 2007 after an arrest on immigration charges, and now can’t afford the expensive smuggling fees to cross the border. He’s also heard work is increasingly scarce.

So he is in fact an example of someone choosing not to emigrate, rather than someone coming home voluntarily. He was deported!

Meanwhile, the report also interviews the director of the Guanajuato state social development office, who immediately rejects the idea of an exodus as "alarmist reports."

The only hard figure the reporter uses is the DHS estimate that the number of illegal immigrants in the U.S. has declined very slightly. That may suggest people have left and not come back, but even a small margin of error (and we are talking about rough estimates for this sort of thing) could point in a different direction.

There will always be people returning to Mexico, because that is how migration patterns have worked for decades. Some people might choose to stay, but as of now the number is relatively small.

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Obama and the embargo

Joe Biden has ruled out scrapping the Cuba embargo. This does not come as a surprise, as I think it's fair to say that conventional wisdom held that Obama would mostly use executive authority to repeal some of the more restrictive measures enacted during the Bush administration. There is still a review of Cuba policy going on (unless it is complete) so best case scenario is that we could move gradually toward the whole enchilada. Obviously, getting rid of the embargo requires Congress, and it is not a priority. There is, however, growing congressional interest in the matter.

What particularly got my attention, however, was Biden's logic, which is worse than the Bush administration's because it is so cloaked in the "we are moving in a new direction" language. So, Mr. Vice President, why not end the embargo?

"We think that Cuban people should determine their own fate and they should be able to live in freedom and have some prospect of economic prosperity"

I guess technically it is true that the best way to let people determine their own fate is to refuse to have anything to do with them.

But it gets worse:

"Obama and I made it clear during our campaign that we thought there's a need for transition in our policy toward Cuba"*

But refusing to get rid of the embargo means no real transition in our policy, so this is contradictory. Unless there is a very gradual plan they're not revealing, which does not seem terribly likely. We'll see.


* It also seemed a little weird for a VP to refer to his president by his last name.

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Basic rules of diplomacy

You don't usually declare that a neighboring president's obesity is affecting his judgment (as Evo Morales said of Alan García).

On the other hand, you also shouldn't necessarily make a crack about how Bolivia had already given up its claim to sea access, given the fact that it is obviously a permanent gaping wound in Bolivia.

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Funes and leftism

When I posted about Mauricio Funes' victory, I predicted that it was now time for people to start pigeon-holing him into "good left" or "bad left." Moisés Naím has the first I've seen, talking about the "axis of Hugo" and the "axis of Lula." He emphasizes how Funes will be antagonistic toward the United States, an argument that ignores pretty much everything Funes has said both before and after his election. If he is part of the Axis of Hugo, then I guess the idea is that we refuse to believe anything he says. He's a puppet of Hugo Chávez because we say so.

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287(g) program

I had an Op-Ed published in the Raleigh News & Observer about the 287(g) program, arguing that it is broken, but could be fixed.

They also published an opposite view, which makes the widely believed but totally inaccurate assertion that illegal immigration is a crime.

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Labeling Mexico

I may be alone in this, but I am already tired of the "labeling Mexico" game. It all started with the the question of whether Mexico was a "failed state." Samuel Logan at Security in Latin America disagrees and makes an argument for a "hollow state."

Given how large and diverse Mexico is, I am really resisting any labels. At this point, it would be like calling the United States the place where everyone drinks Cheerwine.

And now we also get new acronyms. Boz mentioned Transnational Criminal Organizations (TCO). Shannon O'Neil refers to Drug-Trafficking Organizations (DTO). Maybe I am getting old, but the good old term "drug trafficker" always referred to a transnational presence and to a broad range of economic activities. So I am a bit Tired of Acronyms (TOA).

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The "F" word in drug policy

I've noted a few times the shift, sometimes subtle, that has been taking place with regard to drug policy. Hillary Clinton's speech in Mexico is yet another example. We would expect a reference to "shared responsibility," but how long has it been since a Secretary of State admitted a policy was failing? Even further, I wonder how many U.S. policy makers have said publicly that failures in U.S. policy have led to Mexican deaths.

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Obama's border plan

I happened to catch the question about Mexico during Obama's news conference last night. There have been many loosely worded news stories about how more "troops" will be sent to the border and I kept wondering who these "troops" would be, and how many. I was glad to see that his answer avoided the word "troops."

Do you consider the situation now a national security threat? And do you believe that it could require sending national troops to the border? Governor Perry of Texas — Texas has said that you still need more troops and more agents. How do you respond to that?

OBAMA: Well, first of all, let's focus on what we did today. It's very significant.

We are sending millions of dollars in additional equipment to provide more effective surveillance. We are providing hundreds of additional personnel that can help control the border, deal with customs issues.

Indeed, at least for now it will be 450 federal agents and intelligence analysts, along with all kinds of equipment aimed at detecting gun smuggling.

It's not really a huge initiative, and only uses existing resources. But I do like the fact that it resists the temptation to throw National Guard troops to the border, as President Bush did in 2006 because of complaints about illegal immigration. They weren't trained, had no clear role, and ultimately achieved very little. But they made for a good "get tough" story.

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Fidel and baseball

Fidel Castro is doing a bit of gloating because he accurately predicated the course of the World Baseball Classic, including saying beforehand that the game between Japan and the United States was a mere formality, and that the final would be between Japan and Korea (and Japan just won it all). He had previously argued that the main goal of the organizers was to ensure Cuba's ouster, so the Cuban team was put in a group with two Asian teams because the organizers felt they were the best (did the organizers not get all weird about Venezuela?). He did acknowledge, however, that Cuba probably would not have defeated either Japan or Korea regardless.

It also occurs to me for everyone interested in Fidel that all this sports writing seems to confirm that he is not dead.

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Making research presentations

Notorious Ph.D. has some good suggestions for giving research presentations, two of which revolve around time--stay within your time limit, and don't cram too much in. I think the same is even more true of conference presentations because the time limit is so short. Strangely enough, I have found that if someone says, "I'll make this real quick" chances are very high that she or he will not.

I would also add that someone making a presentation should know the material well enough not to read from notes (or, worse, verbatim from the paper itself). I have seen some very interesting topics get crushed into boredom as someone looks down at the paper and reads in a monotone.

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Drug trafficking in Peru

Peru's top anti-drug official says that coca cultivation likely rose 4% in 2008. Last June, the UN reported a 5% increase from the year before that (which, by the way, the U.S. then claimed was a good sign). Part of this is due to more activity by non-ideological profit seekers Shining Path "rebels."

The good news? Peru set a record! The 30 tons of cocaine seized last year is the most ever, and 10 more tons than in 2007. I've also noted before how the war on drugs is all about setting records.

In short, setting more records=losing.

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Biden's trip to Costa RIca

Can you hear that? It is the sound of calm, spiced a bit with common sense. It may not last--indeed historically it never has--but let's enjoy it while we can. We start with Costa Rica re-establishing diplomatic relations with Cuba, followed by President-elect Funes in El Salvador saying he will do the same once he takes office.

Taken alone, that is not very exciting. The U.S. chastises them for doing so, reiterates its commitment to cutting Cuba off as much as possible, and makes references to bad leftists. Right? Well, actually Joe Biden is traveling to Costa Rica on March 30, where he will meet all the Central American presidents, even Daniel Ortega (and Funes will accompany current President Saca). And, gasp, not even any "preconditions."

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Achy Obejas' Ruins

Achy Obejas' Ruins is a novel about one Cuban man's struggle with revolutionary purity during the Special Period. I really enjoyed it and am going to assign it to my Latin American Politics class in the fall. It centers on Usnavy (his mother was watching U.S. naval vessels) and his desire to remain committed to the revolution even as everyone around him is deserting it, either by grubbing for dollars or setting off on rafts.

I could not help but feel sympathy Usnavy, and Obejas does a nice job showing his internal debate. That debate revolves around a lamp he has, as well as a lamp he finds. Are they Tiffany? That allows Obejas to examine the market for scarce dollars (and how the hunt for dollars affects people), perceptions of what "quality" means (e.g. why would a Cuban-made lamp be considered worthless if it is equally beautiful) as well as the contrast between the beauty of the lamp and the squalor of Usnavy's tenement.

Finally, the end of the novel encapsulates all the conflicting feelings Usnavy has--the positives and the negatives about the revolution, his interest in dollars, even his perceptions of foreign tourists.

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Colombian vs. Brazilian foreign policy

Adam Isacson links to and also translates an article in Colombia's El Tiempo about the contrast between Colombian and Brazilian foreign policy. It hits the nail on the head. The argument is that Uribe (and VP Santos) based their policies on an alliance strictly with the Bush administration, whereas Lula proved he could work with both Democrats and Republicans. As a result, Lula has moved very quickly to establish good relations with Obama, while Santos "stamps his feet."

Colombia will lose its status as preferred partner, also for obvious reasons. Because its role was being exaggerated and because President [Álvaro] Uribe did away with the bipartisan relationship he inherited from [1998-2002 President Andrés] Pastrana and took the side of the Republicans, who lost the election. The result is that Uribe was decorated [with the Medal of Freedom, in January] by Bush, but Colombia is left without solid bipartisan bridges to defend the country’s interests.

I would add, however, that the Bush administration should also shoulder some of the blame. During the FTA debate, I wrote several posts about how the FTA was being framed not just as a policy proposal, but as the last bastion of civilization itself. That overblown "us versus them" national security rhetoric further pushed Democrats away because it did not allow for legitimate concerns to be aired. And, ultimately, it failed.

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Russia's failed war of words in Latin America

There were big headlines about Russia saying it might make use of short-term bases in Cuba and/or Venezuela, with a public statement of support from Hugo Chávez. Very juicy news. As usual, it generated at least one headline with the words "missile crisis" in it.

You don't see a lot of joking in Pentagon press statements, yet the press secretary's main response was, "That would be quite a long way for those old planes to fly."

And then, Chávez denied ever offering a base, but said he just told Medvedev that the planes could land in Venezuela if they needed to.

As posturing goes, this is not a particularly successful effort.

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Follow up on U.S.-Salvadoran relations

The State Department spokesman answered a question about yesterday's election in El Salvador. I like the fact that he made a point of ignoring the reporter's insistence that the election be framed entirely in left/right terms. There was a free and fair election, and we're going to work with the new president. Period.

QUESTION: Yeah, there’s the El Salvador joining the ranks of leftist governments in Latin America.

MR. WOOD: Well, first and foremost, I want to congratulate the people of El Salvador for, you know, a very free, fair, and democratic election. I want to specifically congratulate Mauricio Funes as the winner of the presidential election, and also his opponent, Rodrigo Avila, for participating in the election and for respecting the election results. So we look forward to working with the new government of El Salvador, you know, on our bilateral agenda. And you know, and that’s what I have.

QUESTION: Do you expect the history of past ties with El Salvador by U.S. governments and, say, right-wing elements in Latin America to hurt chances for working with this new government?

MR. WOOD: I certainly hope that that isn’t the case. You know, this is a democratically elected government. The people of El Salvador made a decision and that – the will of the people needs to be respected. As I said, it was a very free, fair, and democratic election. This is something we’d like to see throughout the hemisphere. And the people of El Salvador deserve congratulations.

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