July 2024 Archives

This year's World Science Fiction convention is taking place at the Scottish Events Campus (SEC) in Glasgow, from August 8th to August 12th (next month).

You will be unsurprised to know that, unless I come down with COVID19 in the next week, I'm going to be there. I'm also going to be appearing on a few panels and other events during the convention, which I'm listing below the cut.

(The names after the time identify the function space in the SEC where the events are held. An (M) in brackets after a particpant's name indicates the person moderating the discussion.)

Almost exactly six months ago I blogged in The Coming Storm about how 2024 looked like a "somewhat disruptive" year. Hoo, boy!

Let's recap point by point from that piece.

(This is for discussion of BRITISH politics. Deviations onto American politics will be deleted without warning.)

There is a general election coming tomorrow (Thursday July 4th). It looks likely to be a Conservative wipe-out—the worst defeat for the Tories since 1945. Pre-election polling shows large defections from the Conservative right to Reform UK, the latest reincarnation of Nigel Farage's fascist-adjacent UKIP. Reform UK won't get many (if any) seats in parliament but they are likely to cost the Conservatives a lot of votes, while Labour has persistently shown a lead of 20-25% in polling for the past year.

There's a well-known issue in British politics of "bashful Conservative" voters, who say they'll vote for someone else but who then revert to tribal loyalty on the day of the election. But even assuming everyone who says they're defecting to Reform but they turn out for the Conservatives on the day, there's likely to be a Labour government by next Monday.

What happens next?