A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Jan 10, 2025

Putin's Appointment of New Kursk Commander Reveals War There Is Going Badly

The Kremlin is pushing a propaganda line about how well its offensive is going. But Putin's actions reveal a different truth: he has just appointed another new commander as Ukraine's surprise offensive has again disrupted Russian plans to retake Kursk.

The problem the new commander faces is the same as his predecessors: inadequate, unmotivated, poorly trained troops, equipment shortages - and a skilled, determined enemy with better tactics and leadership. JL

James Kilner reports in The Telegraph:

General Yunus-Bek Yevkurov, promoted in December 2024 by Putin, arrived in Kursk less than a couple of hours after Ukrainian tanks started rumbling again towards Russian positions. Russia’s defence ministry may believe its forces are “defeating” Ukraine’s counter-offensive in the Kursk region, but Vladimir Putin clearly doesn’t. He has sent (yet another) general to organise the fight against Ukraine’s surprise counter-offensive. Putin is clearly worried as Ukraine still holding on to Russian territory, even small parcels, weakens him. With the clock ticking down towards a second Trump presidency and potential peace negotiations, he may not have the luxury of time in the Kursk region.

Ukrainian Neptune Missile Blows Up Drone Warehouse 170 Km Inside Russia

Ukrainian targeting of Russian strategic logistics facilities is impacting the Kremlin's ability to achieve its war aims. 

Ukraine first sent drones to distract Russian air defenses, then used a converted anti-ship missile to destroy the facility which housed thousands of reconnaisance drones used to help attack Ukrainian forces. JL

Jake Epstein reports in Business Insider:

A Ukrainian  cross-border attack targeted a drone and ammunition storage facility in Russia's southwestern Rostov region, 170 kilometers from Ukraine. A massive fireball can be seen at one point, followed by a loud blast.Ukraine first launched drones to overwhelm Russia's air defenses in the area before striking the site with a Neptune missile. The Neptune was initially developed as an anti-ship missile, but has since been modified to strike land targets.

"He's Mine:" How Ukraine's Top Drone Units Hunt Russian Soldiers

Having received delivery of 1.5 million drones last year, the Ukrainian military now has enough of them - and of skilled pilots - that it can target individual Russian soldiers as well as armored vehicles, artillery and other high value assets. 

Alerted by reconnaisance to advancing Russians or North Koreans, the Ukrainian pilots can identify their heat signatures and are talented enough to hit soldiers running and weaving. JL

Francis Farrell reports in the Kyiv Independent:

The Achilles Strike Drone Battalion is part of Ukraine’s 92nd Assault Brigade, one of the most effective drone units. Forming as a ragtag drone reconnaissance group in May 2022, the unit became one of Ukraine’s first official strike drone companies in February 2023. Less than a year later, the company became a battalion and soon become a regiment. While kamikaze drones were first used for enemy vehicles, by mid-2024, top units had enough to spend two or more each on a single enemy infantryman. Almost all pilots first learned the intricate art of FPV piloting on a computer simulator. A skilled pilot can dip the drone into an open hatch and an MT-LB is in flames.Everything that moves can be the target of a cheap, high-precision manhunt.

Russian Forces "Now Beyond Peak Capabilities," Using All Its Reserves

New reports reveal that the Kremlin has now committed all of its reserves to the war in Ukraine and is thus 'beyond its peak capabilities' in terms of prosecuting its invasion. 

This confirms that Putin is hoping to add whatever territory he can by committing every resource he has to the Ukraine battle before he is pressured by Trump and the EU to negotiate as his military power begins to wane and his economy collapses. JL

Espreso Ukraine reports:

Ukraine must now maximize Russia's losses as (the Kremlin) is "using all its reserves and for the next six months there will be no significant changes on the front line. Right now, Russian forces are already beyond the peak of their capabilities but will continue to use all resources to pressure our defense. Our main task now is to prevent systemic failures and ensure maximum destruction of Russian troops, even by abandoning certain areas of our territory. A war of attrition is exactly what this entails,"

Ukraine's Tanks, Drones Repulse Another Russian Toretsk Attack With Heavy Losses

Toretsk has become yet another crowded graveyard of Russian soldiers and weaponry. JL

Militarnyi reports:

The drone operators and tankmens of the Azov 12th Special Operations Brigade  repulsed another attack by Russian troops in the Toretsk direction. Azov drones attacked enemy armored vehicles on the way to defenders’ positions. Over the past few months, during massive assaults in the Toretsk direction, the enemy has lost a significant amount of armored vehicles. That is why the Russians resort to the use of cars, buggies, ATVs, and even electric scooters.

LA Will Be Rebuilt By the Immigrants Who Are 43% of Its Construction Workers

Plans to transform the US economy by deporting significant numbers of immigrants may not just cause inflation to rise - as most economists have predicted - they may also prevent the rebuilding of regions struck by natural disasters like hurricanes - and the current Los Angeles fires. 

Immigrants constitute majorities in trades crucial to residential construction which will be essential to rebuilding the parts of LA destroyed by wildfire, just as they have been to areas in Texas, North Carolina and Florida devastated by hurricanes. The economic imperative for immigrant labor is evident. JL

Leon Krauze reports in the Washington Post:

The Los Angeles wildfire is among the most destructive in the region’s history. Rebuilding will be a monumental task. One thing is certain: the rebuilding of LA will rely on immigrants. 43% of construction workers in California are immigrants, a majority of Mexican origin. After Hurricane Harvey struck Houston in 2017, more than half of the workers involved in rebuilding were immigrants as they were in rebuilding Florida after Hurricane Ian in 2022. 31% of workers in construction nationwide are foreign born. Most plasterers, ceiling tile installers and roofers are immigrants, 23% of whom are undocumented. 40% of drywall installers lack permanent legal status. It is crucial to acknowlege who really builds America. Immigrants will be the ones bringing LA back from the ashes.

Jan 9, 2025

Russian Bomber Base Oil Fire Still Burning 24 Hrs After Ukraine Drone Hit

A massive fire caused by a Ukrainian drone strike on the oil storage facility supplying one of Russia's two Tu-160 bomber bases is still burning 24 hours after the attack. 

The Engels-2 airfield has been a primary launching site for Russian bomber attacks on Ukrainian military and civilian targets. The loss of the oil and the storage facility is expected to cause delays in launching further bomber attacks on Ukraine. JL

Hugh Cameron reports in Newsweek:

Russian authorities are still struggling to contain a fire near the Kazakhstan border, which broke out following the latest Ukrainian attack on the country's energy infrastructure. The Engels-2 military airfield, which the plant serves, has been the springboard of aerial attacks against Ukrainian forces and cities since the early days of the invasion. Engels-2 is one of only two airfields to house Russia's Tu-160 bombers. The destruction of the Kristall Plant will "creates serious logistical problems for the strategic aviation of the Russians."