,hl=en,siteUrl='http://0ldfox.blogspot.com/',authuser=0,security_token="v_SeT2Tv8vVdKRCcG9CCW-ZdIfQ:1429878696275"/> Old Fox KM Journal : cycles
Showing posts with label cycles. Show all posts
Showing posts with label cycles. Show all posts

Wednesday, February 25, 2015

What's a Fabian socialist?

The following essay was written by Jerry Bowyer for Forbes in 2008. We were warned. -- Gary DeMar
_________________
Barack Obama is a Fabian socialist. I should know; I was raised by one. My Grandfather worked as a union machinist for Ingersoll Rand during the day. In the evenings he tended bar and read books. After his funeral, I went back home and started working my way through his library, starting with T.W. Arnold’s The Folklore of Capitalism. This was my introduction to the Fabian socialists.

Fabians believed in gradual nationalization of the economy through manipulation of the democratic process. Breaking away from the violent revolutionary socialists of their day, they thought that the only real way to effect “fundamental change” and “social justice” was through a mass movement of the working classes presided over by intellectual and cultural elites. Before TV it was stage plays, written by George Bernard Shaw and thousands of inferior “realist” playwrights dedicated to social change. John Cusack’s character in Woody Allen’s “Bullets Over Broadway” captures the movement rather well.

Arnold taught me to question everyone–my president, my priest and my parents. Well, almost everyone. I wasn’t supposed to question the Fabian intellectuals themselves. That’s the Fabian MO, relentless cultural and journalistic attacks on everything that is, and then a hard pitch for the hope of what might be.

That’s Obama’s world.

He’s telling the truth when he says that he doesn’t agree with Bill Ayers’ violent bombing tactics, but it’s a tactical disagreement. Why use dynamite when mass media and community organizing work so much better? Who needs Molotov when you’ve got Saul Alinski?

So here is the playbook: The left will identify, freeze, personalize and polarize an industry, probably health care. It will attempt to nationalize one-fifth of the U.S. economy through legislative action. They will focus, as Lenin did, on the “commanding heights” of the economy, not the little guy.
Obama_fabian

As Obama said, “the smallest” businesses will be exempt from fines for not “doing the right thing” in offering employer-based health care coverage. Health will not be nationalized in one fell swoop; they have been studying the failures of Hillary Care. Instead, a parallel system will be created, funded by surcharges on business payroll, which will be superior to many private plans.

The old system will be forced to subsidize the new system and there will be a gradual shift from the former to the latter. The only coercion will be the fines, not the participation. A middle-class entitlement will have been created.

It may not be health care first; it might be energy, though I suspect that energy will be nationalized much more gradually. The offshore drilling ban that was allowed to lapse legislatively will be reinstated through executive means. It may be an executive order, but might just as well be a permit reviewing system that theoretically allows drilling but with endless levels of objection and appeal from anti-growth groups. Wind and solar, on the other hand, will have no permitting problems at all, and a heavy taxpayer subsidy at their backs.

The banking system has already been partially nationalized. Bush and Paulson intend for their share purchases to be only non-voting preferred shares, but the law does not specify that. How hard will it be for Obama, new holder of $700 billion in bank equity, to demand “accountability” and a “voice” for the taxpayers?

The capital markets are not freezing up now, mostly because of what has happened, although community organizers’ multidecade push for affirmative-action mortgages has done enormous harm to the credit system. Markets are forward looking.

A quick review of the socialist takeovers in Venezuela in 1999, Spain in 2004 and Italy in 2006 show the same pattern–equity markets do most of their plummeting before the Chavez’s of the world take power. Investors anticipate the policy shift in advance; that’s their job.

It’s not just equity markets, though; debt markets do the same thing. Everywhere I turn I hear complaints about bankers “hoarding” capital. “Hoarding” is a word we’ve heard often from violent socialists like Lenin and Mao. We also hear it from the democratic left as we did during the 1930s in America. The banks, we’re told, are greedy and miserly, holding onto capital that should be deployed into the marketplace.
Well, which is it, miserly or greedy? They’re not the same thing. Banks make money borrowing low and lending high. In fact, they can borrow very, very low right now, as they could during the Great Depression.

So why don’t they lend? Because socialism is a very unkind environment for lenders. Some of the most powerful members of Congress are speaking openly about repudiating mortgage covenants. Local officials have already done so by simply refusing to foreclose on highly delinquent borrowers. Then, there’s the oldest form of debt repudiation, inflation. Even if you get your money back, it will not be worth anything. Who would want to lend in an environment like this?

Will Obama’s be the strong-man socialism of a Chavez, or the soft socialism that Clement Atlee used to defeat Churchill after WWII? I don’t know, but I suspect something kind of in between. Despite right-wing predictions that we won’t see Rush shut down by Fairness Doctrine fascists. We won’t see Baptist ministers hauled off in handcuffs for anti-sodomy sermons. It will more likely be a matter of paperwork. Strong worded letters from powerful lawyers in and out of government to program directors and general mangers of radio stations. Ominous references to license renewal.

The psychic propaganda assault will be powerful. The cyber-brown-shirts will spew hate, the union guys will flood talk shows with switchboard-collapsing swarms of complaint calls aimed at those hosts who “go beyond the pale” in their criticisms of Obama. In concert with pop culture outlets like The Daily Show and SNL, Obama will use his podium to humiliate and demonize those of us who don’t want to come together and heal the planet.

You’ve heard of the bully pulpit, right? Well, then get ready, because you’re about to see the bully part.

Read more at http://godfatherpolitics.com/20609/barack-obama-fabian-socialist/#fzBHPtvm75muSQ9h.99


Tuesday, June 24, 2014

Chicken Little reporting...

geoengineering

http://www.agriculturedefensecoalition.org/sites/default/files/file/geo_scheme_16/MAN_MADE_CLIMATE_CHANGE_IN_THE_SKIES_2011_1.pdf

http://www.agriculturedefensecoalition.org/content/geoengineering-current-actions























--Reporting from your sky, this is Chicken Little. Now back to you in the studio.

This just in:
http://www.thedailydigest.org/2013/07/15/chemtrail-patent-stratospheric-welsbach-seeding/#comment-2211

http://www.thedailydigest.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/US5003186.pdf

http://www.thedailydigest.org/2013/07/23/patent-procured-by-evergreen-international-aviation-for-weather-modification-chemtrails/#comment-2187



Wednesday, May 07, 2014

the most influential ETF's to support the long term bull market

link

XLF Pauses In The Caution Zone

The XLF ETF - Financial SPDR - is one of the most influential ETF's to support the long term bull market. Bank managers see financial issues before other sectors and the broad array of industries within the financial sector can mask the actual performance of XLF. The sector contains REIT's, Insurance, Regional Banks, and Brokers to name a few. Importantly, the Brokers and Banks are breaking their long trendlines from 2012. Sometimes the long term chart of an entire sector can help us the most as we start to micro analyze the trends. So here is a weekly view  of XLF.  The last support level before the collapse of Bear Stearns is marked with a blue vertical line near the left of the chart. March 10th was the day the Fed announced a $50 Billion Dollar Fund to aid financials institutions in trouble. In the next 4 days, hedge funds redeemed their assets rapidly and removed underlying capital at Bear. (Source- Street Fighters: Kate Kelly) Interestingly enough, while Bear was getting weaker, the financial markets rallies into April. The low of $21.11 on March 10, 2008 was a very significant low in time. The rally up before Lehman's collapse topped out at $20.21. Now with resistance above, the financial sector plummeted.
 In  Q3 2013, the XLF found resistance at $20.56.  In the fourth Quarter of 2013, the financials pushed through this significant resistance level. The January 2014 weekly low bounced at $20.98 which is also very close to the intersection of the two yellow trendlines. This horizontal level marks a long term support level after finding resistance, then support within the range before Bear and before Lehman. Between $20.21 and $21.11 we have a solid level where support and resistance are working. Recently, we broke below the upsloping trend line. Now we have a clear level for our long term stop on XLF. Below support of $20.21 would be a clear breach. This $0.90 zone of support is the line to lean on. Until a move either way breaks, we are in an area of caution under the long term uptrend and above the horizontal support.
If you liked this blog, feel free to forward it to investing friends and family. If you didn't like the blog, please send me a note on what we could do better. The charts should be printable. They should also be clickable so that you can go look at the settings.
We try to keep our articles informative and entertaining. Make sure you check out the other blog writer articles in MailbagChartwatchersTraders JournalDecision Point and The Canadian Technician. One of the little known secrets of StockCharts is our Blog or Articles section. The Blog tab will bring up a view of some of the most recent articles. StockCharts.com subscribers have two additional daily feature articles.
Lastly, Chartcon 2014 in Seattle is rapidly booking up. Click here for more information.
Good trading,
Greg Schnell, CMT

Saturday, March 29, 2014

Cramer and Kudlow...

Cramer now espousing Kudlow's views:


"But, Larry said, what's holding it back? Why aren't we having a more robust economy? Why don't people want to create more businesses?

Indeed, why isn't small business, the true generator of jobs, taking off here? Nine years ago, when Larry and I last worked together, I would never have given him the answer that I tossed out instantaneously to his query: regulation -- too much regulation. My old partner smiled, Cheshire-like, knowing that, somehow, I had come to see the light that he has emitted daily since the ascent of President Obama to the White House.

But how could you not think that? Remember, I am of the micro, and just an hour before sitting down on the set of The Kudlow Report, I had interviewed the CEOs of TriNet (TNET) and Paychex (PAYX) , two immensely profitable companies designed to help small- and medium-sized businesses deal with the government and all of its rules that are now too hard to understand for just about any businessperson. Taxes, mandates, health care, rules for hiring and firing and processing: These are now well beyond the ken of any company, save the multinationals.

So you either use a company such as Paychex or Trinet or Workday (WDAY) or Cornerstone (CSOD) or Automatic Data Processing (ADP), or you succumb to red tape that can either wreck your business or land you in jail. These two alternatives keep you chained to your current enterprise, rather than creating one yourself.

Now, it is easy to argue that the government has simply become much more prolabor and that all of these regulations boost workers' rights. That may be true, but all of that is being sacrificed upon an altar that makes starting a new business too hard to do in the first place. You want to protect workers, but first you have to be able to create a company that can hire those workers, and the rules have simply become too difficult to follow. I know this all too well, not just from the companies in interview, but from the inn and restaurant I own -- two new developments that have emerged since I first sat across from Larry.

I could tell Larry was pleased with my evolution toward his position, even as I sure wish I hadn't needed to evolve at all. And, with that, we smacked fists, as we always did every night on Kudlow & Cramer, and bid each other a fond goodbye. Larry is now embarking on his next chapter of spreading patriotism, optimism and much-needed civility into an American polity starved for all three."

Tuesday, February 05, 2013

Missed it by That Much!

Even after the housing market began its collapse in 2006, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said in 2007, "The impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime market seems likely to be contained."

Tuesday, January 17, 2012

Economics History Article

link
Say's Law is the principle that supply constitutes demand. Or, in the words of economist Jean Baptiste Say, "...a product is no sooner created, than it, from that instant, affords a market for other products to the full extent of its own value." (A TREATISE ON POLITICAL ECONOMY, Chapter 15).

J.B.Say (1767-1832) is the French economist who coined the word entrepreneur to describe an economic agent independent from the landlord, worker or even capitalist (since the entrepreneur may secure financing from others). Say wrote his TREATISE to counter the Mercantilist doctrine that money is the source of wealth. According to Say, goods buy goods, and money mediates the transaction: "It is not the abundance of money but the abundance of other products in general that facilitates sales." James Mill expanded on Say's argument in his book COMMERCE DEFENDED to counter the belief that underconsumption is the cause of economic recession — and to counter the belief that increased consumption is the remedy for recession. Say incorporated Mill's ideas in subsequent editions of his TREATISE. Say was emphatic that consumption destroys wealth and that only production creates wealth.

Thomas Malthus was the foremost classical economist who promoted the idea that underconsumption causes recession. Malthus blamed the wealthy for saving rather than spending. David Ricardo, in answering Malthus, invoked J.B.Say to write: "The shoemaker when he exchanges his shoes for bread has an effective demand for bread." Ricardo attributed post-war depression & unemployment to a mismatch of supply & demand, rather than to underconsumption.

Classical economics incorporated the ideas of Say, Mill and Ricardo rather than Malthus in its body of wisdom. These ideas were augmented by John Stewart Mill who emphasized the role of savings rather than consumption in wealth-creation when he said: "...to consume less than is produced, is saving; and that is the process by which capital is increased."

The beliefs of Malthus were revived during the Great Depression of the 1930s by John Maynard Keynes in his book THE GENERAL THEORY OF EMPLOYMENT, INTEREST AND MONEY (1936). It may not be much of an exaggeration to state that the GENERAL THEORY is little more than a protracted attack on Say's Law — a reversion to Malthus in claiming that underconsumption (low "aggregate demand") causes recession & unemployment — and the claim that government spending (financed by deficits, taxes or inflation) and subsidized consumer spending can compensate for "demand deficiencies". In his preface to the French edition of THE GENERAL THEORY Keynes refers to Say's Law as a "fallacy" and describes his own book as "a final break-away from the doctrines of J.-B. Say".

In the first section of Ch...