Google Launches Real-Time Search... Toast is Burning

Not a big prediction since most people knew it was coming, but here's what I wrote in the comments of my tech op-ed at Mashable, "4 Emerging Trends of the Real-Time Web":

When Technorati, Feedster and others arrived on the scene. I loved their services, but believed that once Google paid attention to this space and developed their own blog search that Technorati and others would be toast. A few years later, Google quietly launched their blog search service and I made the switch within a year once their search results were better than Technorati’s.

So I'm doubtful of any big new companies in this space and expect only smaller exits of $10M-$30M for those trying to be a comprehensive search engine. That's why I think vertical categories have more potential. Of course, I could be wrong but will keep track of this space. Thanks!

In my initial draft, I was more negative and my third emerging trend, "Real-Time Search is Looking Up," was actually written as "Real-Time Search is Toast" since I was referring to the startups trying to be the next Google of real-time search. Unless you like butter and jam, I warned people to avoid this space that Google and other big dogs would eventually conquer. Since it was an op-ed, which was to be encouraging to entrepreneurs, I changed it to a more upbeat title.



Google's official announcement here.

4 Emerging Trends of the Real-Time Web

My op-ed on the real-time web is up at Mashable. HatTip to Adrian Chan, Dave S. and John S. for providing their insights on this piece. Check it out, comment and retweet if you can :)

4 Emerging Trends of the Real-Time Web

There is a lot of hype surrounding the real-time web, and much of the feeding frenzy reminds me of the RSS space four years ago — though there is a lot of potential, there is also a lot of noise. How do you navigate through it all and which developments should you be paying attention to? What are the emerging trends for companies and entrepreneurs to watch for? Here are four real-time web trends that I’m tracking.

Real-Time Collaboration is Ripening
Real-time will play a major role in the future of online collaboration. We’ve seen all the hype around the new Google Wave platform, as well as the growth of Twitter and Twitter-like communications (such as Facebook status). On the business side, SAP’s Gravity, a prototype of real-time collaborative business process modeling within Google Wave, is a good example. But I see this as the tip of the iceberg.

Companies that are more efficient have an advantage whether within their walls or with their customers. Imagine being able to make real-time changes with your colleague in another city and graphic designer at your local Kinko’s to finalize a presentation and print it hours before your meeting. Or working with your manufacturer in Nanjing, China on changes to your new BBQ grill design and seeing if it’s possible in real-time. Or game developers in Korea and Dallas story boarding a new video game concept in a new real-time game development application. There is massive potential for real-time collaboration across almost every discipline, and I believe there are an incredible amount of exciting possibilities here... (full post)