Showing posts with label 2012 Predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2012 Predictions. Show all posts

Sunday, March 11, 2012

2012 Predictions: AL East

1st Place: New York Yankees- Look, I know they're the Yankees, and we hate them-- but they're a very good team and should finish first for the 13th time in the last 15 years. Last year, they finished 11th in MLB in pitching, and even so, made a huge push to acquire pitching this offseason. On the free agent front, they acquired Hiroki Kuroda (right)(13-16/3.07/161) and trading for Michael Pineda (9-10/3.74/173) to bolster a decent rotation. They have the best bullpen in baseball, and an offense that ranked 7th last year which, this year, will be helped by a solid DH in Raul Ibanez (.245/20/84). Expect the Yankees to win the division as they've been doing.

2nd Place: Tampa Bay Rays- If you say you expected the Rays to do what they did last year, then you're lying. They traded all sorts of pieces from their 2010 team and still won the Wild Card and won 91 games. They had the 2nd best pitching in the AL and while their rotation should remain the same, they made a few additions to their bullpen in Fernando Rodney (3-5/4.50/26) and Burke Badenhop (2-3/4.10/51). While their pitching was strong, their offense at 2nd worst in the AL was weak. What they did to improve the offense was acquiring power bats like Carlos Pena (left)(.225/28/80) and Luke Scott (.220/9/22 in 64 games). They also got a few singles hitters like Jeff Keppinger (.277/6/35) and Jose Molina (.281/3/15). Expect the Rays' pitching to carry them to a playoff berth.

3rd Place: Boston Red Sox- Much like nobody expected the Rays to do what they did last year, nobody expected what happened to the Red Sox last year. It was their pitching (22nd in the league) that suffered last year and they made several low-risk high-reward type acquisitions such as Vicente Padilla (0-0/4.15/9 in 9 games), Aaron Cook (3-10/6.03/48), and Ross Ohlendorf (1-3/8.15/27). However, the moves they made to their bullpen should really make a dividend-- guys like Mark Melancon (8-4/2.78/66) and Andrew Bailey (right)(0-4/3.24/41). They had the best offense in the league last year, and should stay at a similar pace after they upgraded their right field position by adding Cody Ross (.240/14/52) and Ryan Sweeney (.265/1/25). Expect the Red Sox to win around 90 games, but in this division-- that isn't enough.

4th Place: Toronto Blue Jays- The Toronto Blue Jays may be the best fourth place team in baseball, but in this division, they aren't going anywhere. Their pitching was very rough last year at 24th in the league and while their rotation stayed about the same, their bullpen improved massively. They acquired Francisco Cordero (5-3/2.45/42), Sergio Santos (left)(4-5/3.55/92), and Jason Frasor (3-3/3.60/57). On offense, the Jays were only 20th in the league-- but look for that to improve as Kelly Johnson, Colby Rasmus, and Jeff Mathis get adjusted to their new home. The Blue Jays aren't going anywhere yet, but in a few years they could be a contender.

5th Place: Baltimore Orioles- Each year, I want to say the Orioles are getting better and each year they aren't, so I'm gonna go ahead and say that they won't. They improved their pitching rotation with the Japanese imports Tsuyoshi Wada (16-5/1.51/168 in Japan) and Wei-Yin Chen (right)(8-10/2.68/94 in Japan) as well as Jason Hammell (7-13/4.76/94). They also improved their bullpen with the acquisitions of Luis Ayala (2-2/2.09/39), Matt Lindstrom (2-2/3.00/36), Darren O'Day (0-1/5.40/18). You wouldn't know it, but the Orioles don't have a bad offense (11th in MLB last year), and to it they added utility man Wilson Betemit (.285/8/46). Still, they are the Orioles.

Sunday, March 4, 2012

2012 Predictions: AL Central

1st Place: Detroit Tigers- The Tigers were already one of the best teams in baseball in 2011, with a sparkling 95-67 season. They had the 4th best offense in baseball, and that was before they signed Prince Fielder (right)(.299/38/120) to a huge contract this offseason. Their pitching was middle-of-the-pack in 2011, at 18th in the league with a 4.04 ERA. However, this offseason, they upgraded their bullpen with the acquisitions of Collin Balester (1-4/4.54/34) and Octavio Dotel (5-4/3.50/62). Expect the Tigers to be among the best teams in the league and to make a serious run at the World Series.

2nd Place: Cleveland Indians- For the early portion of 2011, the Indians were a surprise and one of the best teams in baseball. However, due to a lack of pitching, they fell off as the Tigers took control of the division. The Indians didn't do a whole lot this offseason, either. However, they made a few acquisitions that could help their pitching staff such as Derek Lowe (left)(9-17/5.05/137) and Kevin Slowey (13-6/4.45/116 in 2010) who could do with a change of scenery after rough 2011 seasons. Their offense is middle-of-the-road, their only real acquisition there being Casey Kotchman (.306/10/48). Expect the Indians to be 2nd place at around .500 in this very weak division.

3rd Place: Kansas City Royals- As bad as the Royals have been the past few years, they are a team on the rise and there is reason to hope. In this weak division, they could even move to 3rd place in 2012. They had some of the worst pitching in the league last year, but that should be helped by the addition of Jonathan Sanchez (right)(4-7/4.26/102) to the rotation. Also, Jose Mijares (0-2/4.59/30) should be a nice addition to their bullpen. The Royals were actually one of the best hitting teams in the league last year, and the addition of Yuniesky Betancourt (.252/13/68) should help in case their infield isn't performing. This is not the Royals' year, but they are a team on the rise, and it will be soon.

4th Place: Minnesota Twins- Pretty much everything that could go wrong for the Twins last year, went wrong as injuries and ineffectiveness destroyed this team that looked like a contender early. Their pitching fell apart last year, but that should be helped along by the addition of Jason Marquis (8-6/4.43/76) to the rotation. Their bullpen should also look better with the acquisition of Esmerling Vasquez (1-1/4.15/20). Their hitting was below average too in 2011, but that should be helped by outfielder Josh Willingham (left)(.246/29/98), infielder Jamey Carroll (.290/0/17), and catcher Ryan Doumit (.303/8/30). If the Twins can stay healthy, they will go from a 63-win team to a mid-70's winning team-- but still not good enough to contend.

5th Place: Chicago White Sox- While the Royals are a team on the rise, the White Sox are a team free-falling from their glory days. Everything that could go wrong went wrong this offseason, with longtime ace Mark Buehrle going to the sunny skies of Miami and losing pieces of their bullpen in Jason Frasor and Sergio Santos. The moves they did make will not really help them, with outfielder Kosuke Fukudome (right)(.262/8/35) not likely to make an impact. Expect the White Sox to be bad this year, and even worse in the near future.

Sunday, February 26, 2012

2012 Predictions: AL West

1st Place: Los Angeles Angels- Take an 86-76 team from last year, and add securities at pretty much every position they lacked last season. This team could easily go to a 95-100 win team in 2012 based on the tremendous offseason they just had. Take a pitching staff that was the best in the American League in 2011, and add a fantastic starting pitcher in C.J. Wilson (16-7/2.94/206) and an excellent reliever in LaTroy Hawkins (3-1/2.42/28). Their hitting was middle-of-the-road in 2011, but expect that to jump in 2012 with the mega-signing of Albert Pujols (right) (.299/37/99). Also, expect what was an insecure position in 2011 to become stable with the addition of catcher Chris Iannetta (.238/14/55). It will be a tough fight with the Rangers for the division, but I expect the Angels to edge it out.

2nd Place: Texas Rangers- The 2010 and 2011 American League champions pretty much stood pat in this offseason. While this does not make them a bad team in any way, the Angels additions, coupled with the loss of C.J. Wilson will push them to second place. However, the loss of C.J. Wilson won't be nearly as substantial if Yu Darvish (left)(18-6/1.44/276 in Japan) plays up to par. Also, much like what they did at the Trading Deadline last year, they upgraded their bullpen-- this time, with the addition of Joe Nathan (2-1/4.84/43). Expect the Rangers to be contenders for the Wild Card(s?) with the Rays and Red Sox, and to be strong competitors throughout the year.

3rd Place: Seattle Mariners- The Mariners were one of the worst teams in the league last year at 67-95, but while they stood pat-- the A's mortgaged their team. The Mariners didn't do a whole lot this offseason. The only real thing they did was to upgrade their offense (worst in the league in 2011), by acquiring Jesus Montero (right)(.328/4/12 in 18 games) and John Jaso (.263/5/44 in 2010), both catchers. They also upgraded their bullpen a bit, with the acquisitions of Hector Noesi (2-2/4.47/45), George Sherrill (3-1/3.00/38), Shawn Camp (6-3/4.21/32), and Hong-Chih Kuo (3-2/1.20/73 in 2010). They won't be good, but they may reach 70 wins and be at least better than last year.

4th Place: Oakland Athletics- Now we have the A's, who will make a run at the worst team in the league after trading away all of their stars this offseason. They traded away their two best starting pitchers (Trevor Cahill to Arizona and Gio Gonzalez to Washington), as well as their closer (Andrew Bailey to Boston). One could argue that they could afford to do so, with a 3.71 ERA in 2011 (10th best in the league), but I disagree. What they got in return for those pitchers were mostly prospects, but they did acquire some young players who could help their 24th ranked offense. They acquired young outfielders in Seth Smith (left)(.284/15/59), Josh Reddick (.280/7/28), and Jonny Gomes (.209/14/43). Expect the A's to be one of the worst teams in baseball.

Sunday, February 12, 2012

2012 Predictions: NL East

1st Place: Philadelphia Phillies- I'm gonna start off with a quick, easy prediction here-- the Phillies will win the NL East and be the best team in the National League. Now that that's out of the way, let's take a look at their offseason. The best pitching staff in baseball (a 3.02 ERA in 2011) should stay about the same in 2012. However, it may dip a bit with the losses of Roy Oswalt and Ryan Madson. However, they helped compensate for the loss of Madson by building their bullpen a bit with acquisitions of Jonathan Papelbon (right)(4-1/2.94/87) and Chad Qualls (6-8/3.51/43). They didn't do a whole lot for their 13th in the league offense-- just small acquisitions like Jim Thome (.256/15/50), Ty Wigginton (.242/15/47), and Laynce Nix (.250/16/44). Expect the Phillies to be among the league's best in 2012.

2nd Place: Washington Nationals- I am a huge fan of what the Nationals did this offseason and I think that for the first time since they moved to Washington, they could be a contender. Their offense (24th in 2011) is still a bit shaky, the only real acquisition being Mark DeRosa (.279/0/12 in 47 games). Their pitching was already 7th in the league in 2011, and in 2012 it should be among the league's best in 2012. Acquisitions of Gio Gonzalez (left) (16-12/3.12/197) and Edwin Jackson (12-9/3.79/148) should bolster the pitching rotation while Ryan Perry (3-5/3.59/45 in 2010) and Brad Lidge (0-2/1.40/23) should bolster the bullpen. Expect the Nationals to move from a .500 team to a potential wild card team.

3rd Place: Atlanta Braves- Under normal circumstances, I would place the Braves ahead of the Nationals after they went 89-73 and just missed the playoffs in 2011. However, they did nothing this offseason. Honestly, the only move they made that could affect the roster at all was signing Adam Russell (right)(1-2/3.03/13) to help out their bullpen. However, they could be helped by some young arms coming up from AAA, Randall Delgado (7-7/3.88/135 in the minors) and Julio Teheran (15-3/2.55/122 in AAA) should spend time with the Braves. Expect the Braves to be a solid team, but not a true contender.

4th Place: Florida Marlins- The Marlins went through a stunning change in character this offseason-- usually a quiet team, they made several big splashes in the offseason. Most teams don't just go from 72-90 and last place to a contender, but the Marlins will make a run. They really helped out their pitching rotation by acquiring Mark Buehrle (13-9/3.59/109), Wade LeBlanc (5-6/4.63/51) and Carlos Zambrano (9-7/4.82/101). They also helped out their bullpen by acquiring Heath Bell (3-4/2.44/51) to be their closer. They didn't do a whole lot for their offense, but what they did was big-- acquiring shortstop Jose Reyes (left)(.337/7/44, 39 steals) and moving Hanley Ramirez to third. Expect the Marlins to be a part of the Nationals, Braves, and Marlins who will be battling for second place in 2012.

5th Place: New York Mets- The Mets are a bad team, and they didn't do anything to improve in the offseason. They have no payroll space, as it is being eaten up by bad contracts for Jason Bay, Johan Santana, and David Wright. The only real move they made this offseason was trading Angel Pagan to the Giants for reliever Ramon Ramirez (3-3/2.62/66) and outfielder Andres Torres (right)(.221/4/19). Also to bolster their bullpen, they acquired Jon Rauch (5-4/4.85/36). Finally, they acquired Ronny Cedeno (.249/2/32) in a move to cover the shortstop position. The Mets are essentially a lock for last place in an NL East that should be a good division.

Sunday, February 5, 2012

2012 Predictions: NL Central

1st Place: Milwaukee Brewers- The Brewers rode a great 2010-2011 offseason to a division lead and playoff berth at 96-66. They did quite well with the 11th best hitting in the league and 8th best pitching. Much of that team stays intact, with one notable exception-- the loss of Prince Fielder. However, to some degree, they made up for that loss with the acquisition of Aramis Ramirez (right)(.306/26/93) to play third. They traded their current third baseman Casey McGehee to the Pirates for Jose Veras (2-4/3.80/79) to improve their bullpen. Expect their win total to fall off a bit with the loss of Fielder, but I still think they'll take the NL Central.

2nd Place: St. Louis Cardinals- The Cardinals had a great year in 2011, winning the World Series and shocking many-- including myself. However, like the Brewers, they lost their great star (Albert Pujols) in this offseason. Also like the Brewers, they replaced him to some degree, with outfielder Carlos Beltran (left)(.300/22/84). However, besides that, the Cardinals had a very quiet offseason. Their pitching staff that was 12th in the league with a 3.74 ERA will be all back, and potentially stronger with the likely addition of Roy Oswalt (9-10/3.69/93). The hitting will take a hit, but expect the Cardinals to make a strong push for the Wild Card(s).

3rd Place: Cincinnati Reds- The Reds were a major disappointment last year, as many people thought they may repeat the 91-71 season and first place finish of 2010-- however, they slipped to 79-83 and 3rd place in 2011. I think they'll stay in 3rd, but I think they will be a much better team in 2012. They mortgaged their future to improve a pitching staff that was 20th last year-- trading for Mat Latos (right) (9-14/3.47/185) from the Padres. They also helped their bullpen by troves, acquiring Ryan Madson (4-2/2.37/62) and Sean Marshall (6-6/2.26/79). On hitting, they didn't do a whole lot but phenom Devin Mesoraco (.289/15/71 in AAA) will be taking over the reins at catcher. Expect the Reds to miss the Playoffs, but not by a whole lot.

4th Place: Chicago Cubs- The Cubs were another disappointment in 2011, going 71-91 and finishing 5th. They haven't done a whole lot this offseason, but they got front office minds Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer so they are headed in the right direction. They also improved one of the worst pitching staffs in the league by acquiring Paul Maholm (left)(6-14/3.66/97), Chris Volstad (5-13/4.89/117), and Travis Wood (6-6/4.84/76). Their biggest acquisition to an offense that was 18th in the league was David DeJesus (.240/10/46 in a down year). All in all, the Cubs haven't done enough and Bud Selig's compensation for Theo Epstein sits on the horizon.

5th Place: Pittsburgh Pirates- The Pirates were looking like an early season surprise before the wheels came off the bus in June when they went from a 1st place team to a 4th place team at 72-90. Their pitching staff was pretty good for much of the year, but Paul Maholm left for Chicago, and the only real starter they've signed is Erik Bedard (right) (5-9/3.62/125). However, they have gotten some help with their 27th ranked offense, acquiring Rod Barajas (.230/16/47), Clint Barmes (.244/12/39), and Casey McGehee (.285/23/104 in 2010). Still, the Pirates won't be a contender or close in 2012.

6th Place: Houston Astros- The league's worst team at 56-106 in 2011 will probably stay in the cellar in 2012. Their hitting ranked 27th in 2011 and their pitching ranked 28th for a terrible team. They haven't really improved either one very much. In fact, they even traded their best reliever-- Mark Melancon-- to Boston for Jed Lowrie (left)(.252/6/36) and Kyle Weiland (0-3/7.66/13). All they've done otherwise is acquire Chris Snyder (.271/3/17) and Jack Cust (.213/3/23). Expect the Astros to be the league's worst team for a second year running.

Sunday, January 29, 2012

2012 Predictions: NL West

1st Place: Arizona Diamondbacks- The Diamondbacks haven't really lost anything from a team that went 94-68 last year. In fact, if anything, they've improved. They acquired Trevor Cahill (right) and Craig Breslow in a shrewd trade with the A's that will net them a solid reliever in Breslow (0-2/3.79/44 in 2011) and a solid starter in Cahill (12-14/4.16/147 in 2011). I expect Aaron Hill (.246/8/61) and Lyle Overbay (.234/9/47) to have rebound years with a change of scenery. The D-Backs could be among the league's elite without a doubt  in 2012.

2nd Place: San Francisco Giants- After winning the World Series in 2010, 2011 was a disappointment for the Giants as they went 86-76 and missed the playoffs. If anything, 2011 just showed that 2010 was a fluke. While they do have fantastic pitching: Tim Lincecum (13-14/2.74/22), Matt Cain (12-11/2.88/179), and Madison Bumgarner (13-13/3.21/191) highlighted the second best rotation in baseball last year, they have no hitting. While they were battered by injuries, Buster Posey (.305/18/67 in 2010) and Freddy Sanchez (.292/7/47 in 2010) will be back for the full year, they just don't have enough offense to compete. The acquired a couple of outfielders in Angel Pagan (.262/7/56) and Melky Cabrera (left) (.305/18/87) but they don't have the offense to compete.

3rd Place: Colorado Rockies- The Rockies were a major disappointment to many who thought that they would ride a great offense to a playoff berth; however, they finished 4th and went 73-89. Still, they have done nothing but improved this offseason, acquiring Michael Cuddyer (right)(.284/20/70), Casey Blake (.252/4/26), Marco Scutaro (.299/7/54), and Ramon Hernandez (.282/12/36) to bolster an offense that was 7th in the league last year. Their pitching is a bit weak, but Jhoulys Chacin (11-14/3.62/150) is a stud and Jorge De La Rosa (5-2/3.51/52 in 10 starts) should be healthy.

4th Place: Los Angeles Dodgers- Like the Rockies, the Dodgers were a disappointment to many in 2011. However, unlike the Rockies, they haven't done much to improve in the offseason. They do have a strong pitching staff, led by NL Cy Young Award Winner Clayton Kershaw (21-5/2.28/248), Chad Billingsley (11-11/4.21/152), and Ted Lilly (12-14/3.97/158). However, their offense lacks any firepower whatsoever behind Matt Kemp (.324/39/126) and Andre Ethier (.292/11/62). Plus, this offseason, the only real players they acquired were replacement level middle infielders like Mark Ellis (.248/7/41), Adam Kennedy (.234/7/38), and Jerry Hairston Jr. (left)(.270/5/31). In other words, the Dodgers lack the offensive firepower to compete, even in a weak division like the NL West.

5th Place: San Diego Padres- Like all too many teams in this division, the Padres have a stellar pitching staff and a terrible offense. However, they have made a move to fix that, trading Mat Latos to the Reds for gifted first baseman Yonder Alonso (.330/5/15 in 47 games), Edinson Volquez (5-7/5.71/104), and a bucket of prospects. They also netted Carlos Quentin (right) (.254/24/77) in a trade with the White Sox-- however, Petco Park should keep Quentin's undeniable power at bay. The Padres haven't done enough to make them a contender, or even close to one.