The Little Ensign That Could

This John Ensign story just gets worse and worse for him. As it turns out, he wasn't being blackmailed by a cuckold; he was pre-empting a potential disclosure on Fox News, and a lot of people had prior knowledge about the affair, including the network and key Senators, while it was happening.

The unethical behavior and immoral choice of Senator Ensign has been confronted by me and others on a number of occasions over this past year. In fact one of the confrontations took place in February 2008 at his home in Washington DC (sic) with a group of his peers. One of the attendee’s (sic) was Senator Tom Coburn from Oklahoma as well as several other men who are close to the Senator. Senator Ensign’s conduct and relentless pursuit of my wife led to our dismissal in April of 2008. I would like to say he stopped his heinous conduct and pursuit upon our leaving, but that was not the case and his actions did not subside until August of 2008.

No wonder the Republicans don't really want to talk about this--they've known about it for over a year. Here's what Coburn had to say:

Reporters mobbed Tom Coburn of Oklahoma, who shares an apartment with Ensign on Capitol Hill. "I'm not answering any Ensign questions," he announced. "You can ask all you want."

"You don't have any thoughts?"

"I don't have any thoughts."

"Have you had a chance to talk about it?"

"I'm just not going to comment."

Finally, Coburn was badgered into making a defense. "He is a bright young man," the senator said of his 51-year-old colleague. "Lots of people make mistakes."

The details in the letter are pretty juicy. I would say Ensign's in some trouble and this won't go away. But the best take I've seen is from David Kurtz:

While Norm Coleman was battling for his political life in 2008 in a race he ultimately lost to Al Franken by a mere 312 votes, his colleague John Ensign -- whose job as chairman of the NRSC was helping GOP senators like Norm get re-elected -- was off having an affair and finding jobs for his mistress' family.

Hilarious

FL-Sen: Better To Support The Stimulus From Outside The Senate

In one of the few bright spots for Republican recruiting thus far, Florida Governor Charlie Crist will announce a run for Senate today. Crist enjoys a high approval rating in the state because of many moderate stances, including a high-profile support of the federal stimulus package. That's EXACTLY the same vote that drummed Arlen Specter out of the GOP. The question is whether the Florida primary electorate will make Crist pay for that. Marco Rubio, the former Speaker of the Florida House, will also run in the primary from the right. And Florida has a closed Republican primary.

Senate Guru reports:

Nationally, the conservative Weekly Standard is promoting Crist's primary challenger, former state House Speaker Marco Rubio, as the Republican Obama; also, the conservative Club for Growth has already started a cheering section for Rubio against Crist:

But Rubio could also pick up some powerful supporters in the primary. Following his announcement Tuesday, the anti-tax Club for Growth, which is known for its ability to drive fundraising for candidates it supports, released a statement praising Rubio's entry into the race.

Rubio's "fiscally responsible, pro-growth approach in the State Capitol stands in stark contrast with other elements of the state government, led by Charlie Crist," club President Chris Chocola said.

Meanwhile, within the state borders of Florida, conservatives are downright displeased with what they see as Crist being not conservative enough:

Florida Republican Party circles are hearing increasing talk of conservative dissatisfaction with Gov. Charlie Crist and a possible primary challenge if he runs for the U.S. Senate next year. ...

Some conservatives, never happy with Crist's emphasis on racial diversity, environmental regulation and populist willingness to take on big business, are now saying it openly.

Rubio is already fomenting this sentiment with direct shots at Crist:

"If you agree with Susan Collins or Olympia Snowe on some of these issues, you might as well become a Democrat,'' said former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio, a Republican who is likely to run for the Senate, whether or not Crist does.

Rubio, the son of anti-Castro Cubans, offers maybe the only conservative profile that could beat Crist in the state. We're seeing one of those "battles for the soul of the party" play out. And then there's the persistent closet talk about Crist, who suddenly married last year when it was rumored that he could get the VP slot next to John McCain.

Simply put, if Charlie Crist can't get elected by Florida Republicans, then their party truly has crawled into a spider hole of denial. Rep. Kendrick Meek and progressive state lawmaker Dan Gelber have jumped in this race on the Democratic side.

The NRSC is taking sides in this race by endorsing Crist immediately. A cold-blooded move based in political reality. What will Rush say?

Worst. Candidate Recruiters. Ever.

You would think that a former Governor, someone extremely competitive in the general election against an incumbent, would be an easy mark to recruit for the Senate. Unless the person in question is Tom Ridge, and the party in question the Republican Party. Here's his statement:

After careful consideration and many conversations with friends and family and the leadership of my party, I have decided not to seek the Republican nomination for Senate.

I am enormously grateful for the confidence my party expressed in me, the encouragement and kindness of my fellow citizens in Pennsylvania and the valuable counsel I received from so many of my party colleagues. The 2010 race has significant implications for my party, and that required thoughtful reflection. All of the above made my decision a difficult and deeply personal conclusion to reach. However, this process also impressed upon me how fortunate I am to have so many friends who volunteered to support my journey if I chose to take it and continue to offer their support after I conveyed to them this morning how I believe I can best serve my commonwealth, my party and my country.

It's clear from the statement that he didn't want to deal with the whackos of the Pennsylvania Republican primary electorate either. Kos had numbers showing him losing to Pat Toomey in the primary.

Two things here: first, this is all the more reason to support a primary of Arlen Specter. With Ridge's departure, the probability that Pat Toomey will win the Republican nomination go up significantly. Sure, the party poohbahs will try to find someone not fated to lose, like Rep. Jim Gerlach from the Philly suburbs. But Toomey has the momentum. And he cannot win a general election. Democrats in Pennsylvania should know that they can put someone who shares their values in the race with every expectation that they can win the seat.

Second, this is an epic FAIL for the GOP recruitment team. Combine this with Mark Kirk's demurral to run for the Senate in Illinois, and you have two high-profile candidates begging off a run. Nobody wants anything to do with the Republican Party. And why would they? Consigned to a minority for the near future, unable to gain traction with the same old ideas, and in the face of a popular President, the Republicans have nothing to offer their candidates, let alone America.

Conservative Losing-Team Slap-Fights

There ultimately will be no "conservative crackup" - a party espousing authoritarian and business-friendly policies will always exist. But there are fissures - and pretty much due to personality rather than ideology. For example, Rush Limbaugh gets personally upset when politicians challenge his "I want Obama to fail" mantra. Tim Pawlenty is personally hurt by national Republicans urging on Norm Coleman to continue fighting the Minnesota election despite impossible odds, because his state isn't getting what it needs. And another example is Kentucky Senator Jim Bunning, who the party wants to ease into retirement because, well, he's crazy and would lose a re-election fight, but who is too stubborn to go quietly:

But Bunning, a famously irascible former pitcher enshrined in baseball's Hall of Fame, is digging in. He insists he will run despite lackluster fundraising and is rebuking those who suggest he shouldn't.

McConnell has not publicly asked Bunning to retire, but he has ducked questions about the race, saying he will wait until Bunning makes his intentions clear. Bunning, who has said over and over that he is running, said later that McConnell must have "had a lapse of memory."

He has had even harsher words for Texas Sen. John Cornyn, who is leading the GOP's re-election efforts for next year. Cornyn had similarly deflected comment on the race, prompting Bunning to say Cornyn "doesn't understand English."

Bunning did not appear to be mollified when Cornyn said he supports the Kentucky senator. "I don't believe anything John Cornyn says," Bunning said.

That comment came around the same time that word leaked that Republican Kentucky state Senate President David Williams met with the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which Cornyn heads. Bunning told reporters Tuesday that he would have grounds for a lawsuit against the committee if it backed a GOP challenger to him in the 2010 primary.

Bunning first threatened to sue the NRSC if they didn't support him. Then he apparently made an even more substantive threat:

WASHINGTON — Already in conflict with his party’s leaders, Sen. Jim Bunning has reportedly said privately that if he is hindered in raising money for his re-election campaign he is ready with a response that would be politically devastating for Senate Republicans: his resignation.

The Kentucky Republican suggested that possible scenario at a campaign fundraiser for him on Capitol Hill earlier this week, according to three sources who asked not to be identified because of the politically sensitive nature of Bunning’s remarks.

The implication, they said, was that Bunning would allow Kentucky Gov. Steve Beshear, a Democrat, to appoint his replacement — a move that could give Democrats the 60 votes they need to block Republican filibusters in the Senate.

“I would get the last laugh. Don’t forget Kentucky has a Democrat governor,” one of the sources quoted Bunning as saying.

“The only logical extension of that comment is, ‘(Make me mad) … enough and I’ll resign, and then you’ve got 60 Democrats,’ ” said another source who was present at the event.

Bunning is already backing away from the statement. But you can see how a strong daddy conservative with a runaway ego would say such a thing. Just like in sports, when you're a losing team, all the petty jealousies and angry backbiting comes out. I'd say it's unlikely that Bunning bolts, but he'd probably be thrilled to screw Mitch McConnell and the GOP. It's all a game to them, anyway.

Big John

Only one Senator missed the cloture vote on the stimulus (Judd Gregg recused himself, because why should he have to do his job?). That would be John Cornyn, the leader of the campaign committee for Republicans in the Senate, who was too busy wooing potential contributors to vote on providing unemployment benefits and food stamps to needy citizens:

Glenn Thrush says the question from the Senate floor this evening was "where was Cornyn," as the Texas Republican was the only senator to miss the crucial cloture vote on the stimulus package.

The answer: He was at a New York gathering of prominent media conservatives and Wall Street Republican donors called the Monday Meeting, held at the Grand Hyatt hotel in Midtown Manhattan.

Though not a fundraiser, the meeting is a hub of conservative money and buzz, a good place for Cornyn to tap into resources in his role as chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

Good optics, dude.

You Might Be Losing The Presidential Election If...

...you're a Republican and you're losing in Montana.

(I knew the Ron Paul factor - he's on the Presidential ballot here - would be huge, as big as Perot's presence in Montana in 1992. Perot got something close to 20% of the vote there, and Clinton ended up winning. This is a replay.)

...your own Senate campaign committee is running ads that assume you will lose.

...even Chuck Todd figures out that you and your running mate look very uncomfortable together.

The Strange Death Of Republican America

The campaign arm of Senate Republicans just pulled out of Louisiana to focus on saving their seats in Georgia and Kentucky. Louisiana, where Karl Rove personally recruited a former Democrat to face Mary Landrieu, was the only Democratic-held seat where Senate Democrats were playing in 2008.

This guarantees not only that Democrats will keep the Senate, but that Republicans won't pick up one single solitary seat for the second campaign cycle in a row.

Meanwhile, some of the very Southern states where Republicans picked up their last seats, way back in 2004, are holding competitive races in 2008. The money is pouring into Georgia, where progressive Democrat Jim Martin is trying to unseat Saxby Chambliss. The early voting there has been so huge, with such a high black turnout, that Martin has an excellent chance. In North Carolina, listless Liddy Dole is in big trouble.

As economic turmoil has driven down support for Republican candidates in recent weeks, several polls have suggested that Mrs. Dole’s opponent, Kay R. Hagan, a relatively unknown state senator from Greensboro, has closed Mrs. Dole’s double-digit lead or even pulled ahead, and many analysts are now calling the race a tossup.

Ms. Hagan is a crucial part of the effort by Democrats to gain a 60-seat majority in the Senate, a margin that could limit Republican filibusters. From Nov. 16, 2007, to Oct. 5, the Democratic senatorial committee spent more than $4 million on advertising in North Carolina, more than in any other Senate race, according to TNS Media Intelligence/CMAG, a political data firm in Arlington, Va. The Democrats have reserved television time worth millions more.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee, which has less money, has also spent more in North Carolina than in any other state, $1.7 million. That disparity between parties is reversed when it comes to the candidates’ own treasuries. By the end of September, Mrs. Dole had raised $12.9 million, and Ms. Hagan, $4.8 million.

If Republicans need to pull out all the stops to win in Georgia and North Carolina, they're in worse shape than I thought. And it's not simply the economy, IMO; these are BAD lawmakers. Liddy Dole never spends a second in her home state and has no accomplishments. Saxby Chambliss is arguably worse. They were in the majority for four years and did nothing to distinguish themselves. When you are a robotic rubber stamp, there's no way to show leadership - you're spending all your time following. And I think people understand this.

Keeping It To 8 Losses Would Be Nice

Fresh off of failing to recruit anyone decent to run as a Republican for the US Senate and seeing:

• loony Steve Pearce use Club for Growth money to beat the more moderate Heather Wilson in New Mexico's primary, putting that Senate seat against Ton Udall out of reach

• an 85 year-old former Green Party candidate win the Republican primary in Montana

• the golden boy candidate Jim Ogonowski fail to get on the ballot in Massachusetts

...NRSC Chair Jon Ensign (won't be NRSC Chair for long-NV) has settled on a at least we're not going to lose the right to filibuster strategy to fire up his base:

NRSC chair John Ensign has moved the goal posts, according to the Savannah Morning News, saying that the GOP will have succeeded if they don't lose more than eight seats.

Ensign pointed out that if the Dems win nine seats they'll get to the filibuster-proof magic number of 60 -- at which point, Ensign warned, "they will be able to do pretty much whatever they want."

So if the Dems can't get to a 60-seat super-majority, the GOP will have won. Talk about lowering the bar.

That's not lowering the bar, that's throwing the bar on the ground and stepping on any ants that try to get near it.

Meanwhile, Democrats have great recruits almost everywhere, including Al Franken, who won the endorsement of the DFL Caucus in Minnesota this weekend.

It's a good time to be the Senate Guru.