CA-50: A Second Poll Shows Leibham Tied

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner has released a new poll showing Nick Leibham well-positioned to knock off xenophobe Brian Bilbray in CA-50.

A building Democratic wave is about to hit San Diego beaches. The campaign of former prosecutor Nick Leibham is surging, and Leibham is now in a statistical dead heat with incumbent Republican Congressman Brian Bilbray, 42 to 44 percent.

Key Findings

Leibham launched an extremely effective and aggressive mail and television advertising blitz against Bilbray that features a four-star general criticizing Bilbray's vote against the G.I. Bill. As a result, Leibham has pulled into a statistical tie with the incumbent (42 to 44 percent) after trailing by 19 points (35 to 54 percent) as recently as August.

Barack Obama is also running strong in California’s 50th Congressional District, leading John McCain by double digits (53 to 41 percent). The environment is now ripe for Democratic victories in a district George W. Bush won by 11 points - twice. Concerns about the economy dominate the political landscape, President Bush is more unpopular than ever, and five out of six voters think the country is off on the wrong track.

Leibham’s strong position is due to his appeal beyond Democratic base voters. He currently wins four out of five (79 percent) Democrats, while Bilbray wins three out of four (75 percent) of Republicans. The biggest difference, however, is that Leibham holds a 16-point advantage among voters not aligned with either party (48 to 32 percent)

Democrats have been coming close in this seat ever since the Duke-Stir, Randy "Duke" Cunningham, was sent to jail in 2006. Francine Busby lost a special election and then the general election to Bilbray. The third time may be the charm.

CA-50: Yet ANOTHER Deadlocked Congressional Race - Third of the Week

Adding to Bill Durston in CA-03 and Debbie Cook in CA-46, now Nick Leibham has some poll numbers showing a virtual tie:

You can now add Rep. Brian Bilbray (R-CA 50) to the new heap of GOP incumbents who should be suddenly very worried. A new poll, conducted for atty/ex-San Diego City prosecutor Nick Leibham's (D) camp, shows him trailing Bilbray by a miniscule 44-42% margin.

This may feel like deja vu for GOPers. In the '06 special election to fill imprisoned-Rep. Duke Cunningham's (R) term, Bilbray needed $4.5M from the NRCC to skate by a relatively lackluster Dem. What's worrisome for Bilbray is that the cash-starved NRCC can't afford to put anywhere near that amount in his CD to save it this year. And the DCCC has enough cash, if it chooses to enter the contest, to make a difference. The NRCC simply can't afford to overwhelm Dem efforts here like they did in '06.

This is particularly acute in CA-50. Leibham beat Bilbray in fundraising in the third quarter, and they are almost even in cash on hand. Which means that, barring a life raft from the national party, Bilbray is largely on his own. And he doesn't have much to run on. Here he is whining about that powerful ad from Leibham supporter Joe Hoar, a retired Marine General, which ripped Bilbray for voting against the new GI Bill:

Bilbray said he was one of the GI Bill's original co-sponsors, but voted against it after congressional Democrats loaded it up with extraneous goodies, including a "massive tax increase" and a foreign aid package for Africa and Mexico.

"That's the kind of cynical tactics we said 'no' to," the Carlsbad Republican said. "We forced it to come back as a clean bill and we were able to pass it and it was signed into law in June."

Actually, it wasn't a clean bill at all, it was folded into an Iraq appropriation. And he objected to it initially because it was funded by a tax on millionaires.

Liebham supporters have put up an attack website called Wrong Way Bilbray highlighting his votes. Now that the campaign has settled into attacking Bilbray on the issues, with the Democratic wind at their backs, they are gaining traction.

And more than CA-50, what we're seeing is an across the board re-evaluation of Republican incumbents, with multiple GOPers in trouble.

CA Campaign Update: Q3 Money Race Tells The Story

The FEC reports are starting to come in for our candidates. I'll update them here, but the preliminary numbers are very strong.

• CA-50: Wow. Nick Leibham raised $413,000 in the third quarter, his best quarter of the cycle by a factor of four. With $334,000 cash on hand, he's going to be able to get his message out in the final weeks. As much as anything, this is why Leibham is Red To Blue. No word on Brian Bilbray's take yet. Leibham's latest ad uses a local war hero to hammer Bilbray for his vote against the new GI Bill, and it's very powerful, a great improvement over the attention-getting stunts from earlier in the year. I'm starting to feel good about this race.



• CA-45: Julie Bornstein raised around $102,000 in Q3, while Mary Bono Mack raised $245,000. The cash on hand situation shows Bono Mack with $462,548 in the bank compared to Bornstein's $179,308. That's not terrible, especially if the DCCC steps in with some outside help - they just added Bornstein to their emerging races list (along with Bill Durston in CA-03). Her latest ad, showing Bono Mack as a rubber-stamping bobblehead, is spot-on ("Do you think George Bush is right 92% of the time?")



• CA-52: In our toughest winnable race, Mike Lumpkin raised $107,000 and has $125,000 CoH, and Duncan D. Hunter raised $290,000 with $321,000 CoH. It'll take a monumental effort to win this one, but I don't consider it impossible. Lumpkin just got put on the D-Trip's Races To Watch page, along with Russ Warner (CA-26).

• CA-46: A nice writeup about canvassing for Debbie Cook from friend of the blog Andrew Davey (atdleft).

more money updates when they roll in...

UPDATE: Debbie Cook raised $114,000 and has $181,000 in the bank. Nothing yet from Dana Rohrabacher. Will she outraise him three quarters in a row?

California Campaign Update

Things are happening very quickly in the most hotly contested campaigns in California. Here's an update:

• CA-04: Watching himself falling behind in the race to replace John Doolittle, perennial candidate Tom McClintock decided to borrow one of his predeccesor's smear campaigns and release an ad claiming that Charlie Brown dishonored servicemen by appearing at an anti-war rally.



The idea that wearing a camouflage jacket constitutes being "in uniform" is ridiculous, and so is the idea that a retired military officer has no free speech rights. But the idea is to smear Charlie as some kind of radical leftist and anti-military, despite Brown's long record of supporting veterans and McClintock's longer record voting against them.

The ensuing press conference put on by the McClintock campaign was a wild affair.

SACRAMENTO - A press conference on congressional candidate Charlie Brown's actions in 2005 at the home of an anti-war display nearly descended into conflict itself, with disruptions before, during and after the event and a near-appearance by police officers [...]

But before the event even began, a handful of Brown supporters - accompanied by Brown's campaign manager, Todd Stenhouse - were asked to leave so that they wouldn't cause a disruption.

One man loudly protested that as a military veteran and the father of an active-duty U.S. soldier, he felt he could stay. "This is not Russia," he said.

McClintock campaign consultant John Feliz and Stenhouse eventually got the man to agree to leave, but not before security at the Hyatt hotel where the press conference took place made calls to Sacramento police to remove the man [...]

But a third man who was with the veterans pointed out that Brown was within his First Amendment right to do so, prompting Feliz to ask him to leave as well, while also saying Brown should re-enlist and face a court martial for his actions.

The man, who gave his name as Bret Sherlock, said afterward that he attended because he was tired of non-veterans like McClintock smearing veterans like Brown.

"Did he do anything illegal?" Sherlock said of Brown, adding that if anyone should be able to protest the war, it should be Brown, as both a veteran and a father of a soldier who has served four tours of duty in Iraq.

McClintock campaign spokesman Bill George said the video came from a "concerned citizen." Neither McClintock nor Brown appeared at the press conference.

After the press conference concluded, Stenhouse tried to give McClintock's campaign a pledge to join a Brown program that donates 5 percent of Brown's campaign contributions to nonprofit community groups that work with charities.

Feliz angrily took it and threw it down without looking at it.

They don't want to talk about issues. So McClintock tries to smear a decorated veteran to win an election. Typical.

• CA-11: We've talked before about Dean Andal's embarrassing fall from Congressional contender to also-ran, but it's just getting worse and worse. The questions over Andal's role in a botched construction project at a local community college have continued, and he's also been caught lying about his claim that he's raised more money than any Congressional challenger in the country. Now his mailers are hitting mailboxes throughout the district, and they've been revealed as lies.

What it says: "Instead of taking action to fix America's energy crisis, ruling Democrats shut down Congress this month (August) for a five-week vacation — with Democratic Congressman Jerry McNerney casting the deciding vote to adjourn."

Is it true? No. The vote was 213-212 in favor of adjournment. Under Andal's argument, all 213 members of Congress who voted in favor of the annual summer break were the "deciding vote."

Besides, party leaders don't let freshmen decide anything.

It's almost sad how bad Andal is doing. The NRCC isn't even spending in the district.

• CA-50: The latest registration numbers for the district are in, and while Republicans continue to hold an 11-point lead, the trend is in Democrats' favor. Republicans are also perilously close to the 40% registration line, under which it becomes harder for them to win, as more independent voters lean Democratic. I don't know if Paris Hilton ads and chicken suits will get it done for Nick Leibham, whose campaign is clearly just trying to get in the headlines. But there are lines of attack on Bilbray, particularly over his single-minded focus on immigration and not the pocketbook issues that affect people's lives, though Bilbray is enough of a nut to say that the two are functionally equivalent.

• CA-26: There's another smear campaign going on in this race, where David Dreier and the NRCC are trying to hold onto this seat by dredging up old news about Russ Warner and old tax liens and business license payments. These are incidents from as far back as 1992, and Warner's business license has since been reinstated. It's a pretty negative mailer considering that Dreier sounds so confident about victory. Warner is now out with his own mailer highlighting Dreier's many ties to special interests (like the $200,000 he's received from oil and gas companies). The fact that Dreier and Bush agree 94% of the time makes an appearance as well. The fact that this race is getting so nasty so early suggests that Dreier has seen some polling that has him worried.

• AD-80: Manuel Perez has snagged the endorsement of the Sierra Club. They also have an ad up on the air, which is notable for an Assembly candidate.

CA-46, CA-50: Cook, Leibham Outraise Incumbents

Two more Democratic challengers have outraised their incumbent opponents in the second quarter. That doesn't happen very often, and it's not supposed to in the supposedly impenetrably gerrymandered state of California. But as I've been saying, this is a different year.

In CA-50, I've been informed that Nick Leibham outraised Brian Bilbray by $245K-$210K in the second quarter. From the release:

Challenger Nick Leibham raised more money than Congressman Brian Bilbray in this fundraising quarter, according to FEC reports. Leibham raised $245,504 while Bilbray managed $210,315. The quarter spanned from April 1, 2008-June 31, 2008.

“Any time that you out raise an incumbent, especially someone like Brian Bilbray who has taken over $180,000 in campaign contributions from Big Oil, it gives the campaign a huge amount of momentum,” said Leibham. “This is the clearest sign yet that the voters of the 50th are ready for change and I’m honored that so many of them are willing to contribute to our effort.”

Leibham has $266K cash on hand, compared to $528K for Bilbray.

In CA-46, there is similarly good news about Debbie Cook so I'll let it speak for itself:

Debbie Cook Raises More Than Rohrabacher For The Second Straight Quarter

Democratic Congressional nominee Debbie Cook announced today that she raised more campaign funds than Dana Rohrabacher in the latest reporting period, making it the second quarter in a row she’s out-raised the nine-term incumbent.

Cook, the Mayor of Huntington Beach, out-raised Rohrabacher by more than $10,000. Cook raised $92,900 to Rohrabacher’s $78,712.

Cook has $97K CoH. 70% of her donors are local, meaning she has grassroots support AND that she has limitless potential if she can tap into netroots energy and build a national fundraising base. She will be appearing at Netroots Nation.

Both of these are, in some respect, a reflection of two lazy incumbents. Bilbray and particularly Rohrabacher aren't paying any attention to fundraising. But there's not going to be any NRCC money forthcoming if these two get in trouble. There's not going to be any expansion of their donor base. So while both have cash reserves (Bilbray has about $528K CoH, Rohrabacher has $387K), they aren't overwhelming, and both Leibham and Cook ought to be somewhat competitive financially.

This is nothing like CA-26, where David Dreier has $1.9 million in the bank. (Russ Warner's numbers aren't out yet.)

More numbers:

CA-45: Bornstein raised a little over $96,000, has $121K CoH. No numbers for Mary Bono yet.
CA-03: Bill Durston raised around $125K, has $188K CoH. Nice haul for him. Dan Lungren raised $173K, has $615K CoH.
CA-52: Mike Lumpkin raised $128K but only has $53K CoH.

CA-50: Cheryl Ede Endorses The Responsible Plan

Cheryl Ede, a Congressional candidate in CA-50 (Bilbray), just informed me that she has signed on to endorse the Responsible Plan. This is the third Congressional candidate in California to endorse the plan, joining Ron Shepston (CA-42) and Debbie Cook (CA-46). By the end of the weekend I expect several more.

It's time for Nick Leibham to sign on as well. This is a intelligent and important set of policies that will create a legitimate mandate to end this war, not a vague nod toward a "new direction" in Iraq. Plus, it will seek to repair the broken institutions that led us into this disaster in the first place. The candidates that have signed on nationwide seek to represent some of the reddest districts in the country, some of the bluest, and everything in between. There is no reason for a candidate who wants to best represent the Democratic Party not to sign on.

2007 Congressional Fundraising Totals

I've been a really, really bad blogger and have stopped my Congressional House Roundup. So here's a mini-one. I've dug up the totals for 2007 fundraising in the top races in the state, and they're a little interesting. Here are the numbers from the key races.

CA-11:
Jerry McNerney raised $1.065 million in 2007, has $760,000 cash on hand
Dean Andal raised $535,000, has $471,000 CoH

CA-04:
Charlie Brown raised $506,000, has $383,000 CoH
Eric Egland raised $141,000, has $79,000 CoH

There are no fundraising numbers yet for the new challengers who have entered the race on the Republican side, including former State Sen. Rico Oller and former US Rep. Doug Ose. By the way, Ose has donated to Doolittle's legal defense fund, along with Minority Leader John Boehner. Reformers, all of them!

CA-26:
David Dreier raised $599,000, has $1.96 million CoH
Russ Warner raised $380,000, has $240,000 CoH
Hoyt Hilsman raised $114,000, has $10,550 CoH

Obviously, Dreier is sitting on a goldmine.

CA-50:
Brian Bilbray raised $419,000, has $262,000 CoH
Nick Leibham raised $211,000, has $188,000 CoH

Very encouraging.

Others to note:
Mary Bono (CA-45) only has a paltry $219,000 CoH. Her potential opponents Julie Bornstein, David Hunsicker and Paul Clay got in too late to register any money in this quarter (sometimes the FEC shows residual candidates who have run in previous years, so I'm not certain they're running.)
Mike Lumpkin, the Democrat in CA-52 trying to take Duncan Hunter's open seat, raised $78,000 in 2007 and has $43,000 CoH.

There's not much else to write home about here.

D-Trip Commits To 3 CA House Campaigns

This is big news. Roll Call's articles require subscription, but I'll link to DKos diarist (and friend of Calitics) RandySF's description. Basically Chris Van Hollen is announcing that the DCCC, the campaign arm for House Democrats, will be targeting 40 seats to start in the 2008 election, 31 of them held by Republican incumbents and 9 of them open seats. The amazing thing is that 3 of those seats are here in California. On the top 40 list for the D-Trip are:

CA-04 (John Doolittle)
CA-26 (David Dreier)
CA-50 (Brian Bilbray)

What this means is that the DCCC will support financially challengers to those seats, and encourage Democratic donors to do the same. Now, the D-Trip has a mixed record in getting involved in Congressional races. In 2006 some of the seats they contested most strongly were lost at the expense of some strong progressive challengers who were beat by a mere handful of votes, and could have used the money. But looking at the list, I perceive a shift from Rahm Emanuel's style to Chris Van Hollen. I think Van Hollen is rewarding strong candidates who have a chance to win. Netroots-endorsed candidates like Linda Stender, Darcy Burner, Gary Trauner, Dan Maffei, Eric Massa and Larry Kissell are on the list. So I am hopeful that this is not the case of a push to get a bunch of Bush Dogs into office.

What this also shows is the faith in California to have some competitive targets in 2008. The partisan gerrymander is supposed to negate any attempt at flipping seats out here, but times have changed. John Doolittle is so ethically compromised that his idea of good news these days is believing his case will be delayed by a year while they fight a subpoena in the courts. David Dreier is completely out of touch with his district, and Brian Bilbray doesn't even live there. So we will see some opportunities in California in 2008. And this is great news for Charlie Brown, Russ Warner and Nick Leibham, as they have been validated as national players. I hope that they remain true to their beliefs and run these races their way, however, and not the way the national consultants tell them.

Not to toot my own horn, but these have consistently been the top three pickup opportunities in my Congressional roundups. :)

CA House Races Roundup - September 2007

OK, I'm getting this in just under the wire. Time for the House roundup for September. There are a little over 13 months until Election Day, and with the end of the 3rd quarter on Sunday (donate), this election is really not that far away. In fact, CQ Politics has put out their initial assessment of the House landscape. It's favorable for Democrats, but predictably, there are only two California seats on that radar: CA-04 and CA-11. But there have been a lot of developments in the other races throughout the state as well.

I'm going to rank them in order of most possible pickup, including their number from the last roundup. I'm also, as usual, including the "Boxer number." Basically, seeing how Boxer fared in her 2004 re-election against Bill Jones in a particular district is a decent indicator of how partisan it is. If I put "57," that means Boxer received 57% of the vote. Anything over 50, obviously, is good.

First, let's look at the one threatened seat currently held by a Democrat.

1) CA-11 (McNerney). CQ Politics has the seat "Leans Democratic," and only two Democratic seats are less safe (Tim Mahoney in FL-16 and Nancy Boyda in KS-02). Dean Andal has the funds to make a challenge here, and he's become a born-again environmentalist, which is curious considering his prior anti-environmental history. But McNerney has done himself no favors. His bungled rhetoric during the Iraq debate in August was met with outcry, and this week's vote to condemn MoveOn.org, an organization that gave him over $50,000 in 2006, didn't exactly enthuse activists either. He tried to respond by blasting Rush Limbaugh's comments and asking that he be taken off the air; I'm not sure how that jibes with the First Amendment. McNerney will clearly have a lot of DCCC incumbency protection, but this is obviously a race that won't be easy, and McNerney is making it difficult for activists to continue to support him.

Now, to the top 10 challengers.

1) CA-04 (Doolittle). Last month: 1. Boxer number: 40. This is one of six Republican-held seats listed in CQ's ratings as "No Clear Favorite," and one of only two where the incumbent is running for re-election (the other is Robin Hayes against netroots hero Larry Kissell in NC-08). Charlie Brown, who has a great interview in CQ this week, actually announced his campaign just a few weeks ago as part of a barnstorming tour. As for John Doolittle, his legal woes continue. Eleven years' worth of documents have been subpoenaed by the Justice Department, as part of the Abramoff case. Doolittle is refusing to comply with the subpoena, setting up what could be a Constitutional showdown. Meanwhile, he has at least three high-profile primary challengers, and a lot of pressure within the district to resign. The more candidates in the primary actually helps Doolittle, as it spreads out the vote. If it's a two-person primary, he could easily lose. And Brown would be in excellent position to beat Doolittle if there's a rematch.

2) CA-26 (Dreier). Last month: 2. Boxer number: 48. Russ Warner, last seen at the Calitics Q3 event, has been busily raising money for the end of the quarter. I'm told that the numbers will be better than Q2. Warner has also gone on the offensive against David Dreier's shameful voting record, being one of the first Congressional challengers to use the SCHIP vote as a campaign issue. That's going to be a big vote to highlight next year. Meanwhile Dreier nearly caused an international incident in Colombia by sitting on a lectern, continued to whine about supposedly shoody treatment on the House Rules Committee (yeah, that never happened under Republicans), and had some shady connections with those who were trying to steal the Presidential election with the Dirty Tricks Initiative in California.

Of course, there's a primary, but Hoyt Hilsman's campaign website hasn't been updated since July. Russ Warner is running a professional campaign, and a good one thus far.

3) CA-50 (Bilbray). Last month: 4. Boxer number: 48. Nick Leibham, who has two nice-looking dogs, is about to get the endorsement of Francine Busby for the Democratic primary, according to our man in San Diego.

The field has been slowly clearing for a while now, with Michael Wray opting against a run and John Lee Evans running for School Board. Steve Schechter has also filed FEC paperwork to run in the district, but this endorsement would line up the one major recognizable Democratic face in the district behind Leibham. Putting to rest any remaining speculation that she might run again, much of the drama is likely over in the primary, leaving now more than a year of Bilbray-hunting.

Avoiding a primary would obviously be a plus for Leibham. Meanwhile, Bilbray is being his usual brown-hating self, calling on the feds to pay local governments for the services spent on "illegal immigrants." This is immigrant bashing at its worst, but while it offends the conscience of the sane, his base is energized by these theatrics. Leibham will have to do a better job of finding new voters than Busby did to have a shot at this district.

4) CA-24 (Gallegly). Last month: 3. Boxer number: 47. I'm still keeping this race fairly high, maybe higher than it should be, because of the possibility of retirement. We've seen the mass exodus of Republicans from the House, as the prospects for them regaining those plum committee chairmanships grow dim. Gallegly says he's running, but he resigned last year before un-resigning, so he's not that credible a source. So far, the only challenger in this district is Mary Pallant, who officially declared her candidacy this week. Pallant is a fellow AD delegate of mine, and a very progressive Democrat.

In announcing her intent to run, Pallant emphasized her stance as a “progressive Democrat,” and invoked Roosevelt in her campaign theme, a Newer and Fairer Deal for the 21st Century. Her platform is described as ending the occupation of Iraq, she said, as well as implementing a universal single-payer healthcare system, seeking energy independence while enforcing environmental protections and pursuing economic strength and security through economic self-sufficiency.

Other candidates seem to be waiting this one out until they see if Gallegly actually runs. Jill Martinez, the candidate in 2006, is rumored to be running again, but hasn't declared officially. Brett Wagner kind of says he's running, but his website hasn't been updated since February. Education activist Chip Fraser may run; he once walked from Ventura to the state Capitol to promote education reform. The district is smaller than that!

5) CA-42 (Miller). Last month: 5. Boxer number: 41. Ron Shepston and his team have been spending September making appearances and raising money. He did both in a Blue America chat on Firedoglake. Blue America support has in the past been crucial to Congressional success around the country. Meanwhile, Gary Miller has been voting for endless war in Iraq and against children's health care and S-CHIP. That puts him in line with every other California Republican, but Miller is also incredibly corrupt. Although, he claims that he is not under FBI scrutiny, which is an inspiring political message.

Miller agreed to an on-the-record, unrecorded interview with The Hill days before the August recess, in which he rejected the
notion that the FBI is investigating him.

On Jan. 31, 2007, the Los Angeles Times reported that Dick Singer, a spokesman for the city of Monrovia, Calif., said federal agents had interviewed city officials about a $10 million land deal in which Miller did not pay capital gains taxes.
Miller says no taxes were owed because he was forced to sell the land under threat of eminent domain.

Miller also pointed out that a “federal agent” could be any federal entity, such as the IRS. He said he wouldn’t be surprised if the IRS had questions after the liberal-leaning group Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington filed a complaint to the federal agency against him in August 2006.

“I’m sure the IRS wanted to see the information. A federal agent could be anyone — anyone flashing a badge,” Miller said.

Though there's not much new to report, these ethics concerns aren't likely to go away, and a good candidate could capitalize on them, a la Charlie Brown with John Doolittle.

6) CA-44 (Calvert). Last month: 7. Boxer number: 45. The Inland Empire was one of the areas where they were out gathering signatures for the Dirty Tricks initiative, before it cratered, and Ken Calvert was quoted in the article:

Rep. Ken Calvert, R-Corona, also favors the system, saying it could help improve the state's dismal voter-turnout rates. He said presidential candidates from both parties, who have written off California as a lock for the Democrats, would have to campaign in Inland Southern California and across the state.

"They'd have to be here, and that would create excitement," he said. "People would think their vote matters."

We'll see if Bill Hedrick can make any hay out of that next November. In addition to Calvert's dismal voting record and serious corruption issues. Calvert was one of 5 US Congressmen on a junket to the CNMI where rumors of sex tourism abound (Dana Rohrabacher and John Doolittle were on this trip as well).

7) CA-52 (open seat) Last month: 10. Boxer number: 44. There are new candidates on the Democratic side in this San Diego-area race. Former Special Forces regular JIm Hester and ex-Navy SEAL Mike Lumpkin are running. Lumpkin seems to be keeping a busy schedule and generating a little press, both offline and in the blogosphere; Markos wrote enthusiastically about him. I still think it's going to be hard to beat the son of Duncan Hunter, and hard to criticize him while he's serving in Afghanistan or possibly Iraq.

8) CA-41 (Lewis). Last month: 6. Boxer number: 43. Jerry Lewis has announced that he's running for re-election again, so that puts the retirement rumors to rest. In addition, he's managed to get the Justice Department drain the money swamp committed to investigating him:

The veteran prosecutor who'd been heading up the Lewis case has been forced into retirement, The Los Angeles Daily Journal reported yesterday (not available online). It knocks the investigation, already stalled, further off course.

Because of civil-service rules, a 25-year veteran of the U.S. attorney's office who just recently took over the probe of Rep. Jerry Lewis must exit the office for good by the end of September, marking the third significant departure from the office's corruption unit since Lewis first came under suspicion last year.

Michael Emmick, who first joined Los Angeles's U.S. attorney's office in 1982, has been serving under one-year appointments since 2004, after he triggered a contractual clause that will allow him to collect retirement benefits immediately upon leaving the office.

It's highly unlikely that the Lewis investigation is going anywhere. Furthermore, since Lewis will run again, it's likely that Tim Prince, the likely challenger, won't. Worse, Louie Contreras, the candidate in 2006 who didn't campaign at all past the primary, and may have been hand-picked by Lewis himself as a sock-puppet challenger, appears to be running again.

9) CA-03 (Lungren). Last month: unranked. Boxer number: 42. In my preference to highlight races where there's actually an announced candidate, I'm highlighting this one. Dan Lungren is fairly entrenched as an incumbent, but 2006 challenger Bill Durston is running again. Who knows? Maybe the Charlie Brown magic will wear off on Durston and propel him to make a race out of it in this Republican district. Here's his website.

10) CA-45 (Bono). Last month: 8. Boxer number: 49. I'm breaking my "no candidate" rule because I want to see this potentially competitive district be challenged, and I do believe someone will eventually step up. But more important than that, I wanted to mention that someone in Congress is named Miss Mary Mack. Notably, Bono was the only California Republican to vote for SCHIP, which suggests that she knows she has to moderate her views in the district.

Special mention: Because it ought to be mentioned that Dana Rohrabacher thinks the premier of China wants to poison the President. This guy is in Congress, by the way.