The Huckster Advantage

I do think that this Wayne Dumond ad, which will likely be brutal in a Republican primary, could significantly impact what I'm about to say. But I do think Mike Huckabee has the clearest path to the nomination as anyone.

The road to the GOP nomination will certainly not be based on issues; antiwar Republicans went for John McCain in New Hampshire (though you have to wonder what "antiwar Republican" really means; maybe it's someone who wants to get out the most honorable way possible, in which case they consider McCain the most experienced option). It's going to fall on identity issues, much as the Democratic race is falling along identity lines in kind of an ugly way. And there's no doubt in my mind that Southern conservatives, who will end up deciding this nomination, will end up rejecting John McCain, whose fundamentals in New Hampshire were weaker than in 2000, and who still has no love from mainstream conservatives. McCain has problems with tax-cutters, too, and while Huckabee doesn't inspire confidence on this front, his embrace of the FairTax has blunted that criticism to a degree. And if Huckabee were smart, he would attack McCain at his strength, pointing out all of the earmarks he has received for his constituents in Arizona.

Money is a non-factor, in my view. The guy with the most is in a do-or-die situation in Michigan, and the only other candidate with even a little money is hanging out in Florida trying to gin up "security" events to get attention. And I maintain that Huckabee has more money on hand right now and eligible to spend than McCain; that's why they're going the 527 route to beat him.

But like I said, this is about identity. And I think it will be hard to wave base voters off of Huckabee. He still has the national lead, and is the only candidate at or near the lead in all the big states to come (Michigan, South Carolina, Florida). Michigan would be a pipe dream for him but would clearly put him on a path to the nomination; if he loses, I believe South Carolina will come through. Plus there's this analysis:

If Huck exceeds expectations--even marginally--then he can probably knock Mitt out of the race. Huck has a real possibility of bumping Mitt to third place in his Daddy's state, which I gotta believe would chase him from the race.

And then we'd be left with Huck versus McCain. A Baptist preacher who will chase away the corporatists versus a war-monger who will chase away the nativists and evangelicals. While I think either Huck or McCain may do well in the General election (I'd rather be running against Mitt), I think a two-way contest between Huck and McCain has the real potential to cause the GOP a while lot of angst between now and whenever they do get to the General.

I gotta believe that Huck looked at this polling and realized he had the ability to hit Mitt with a real body blow, taking out the one other guy who can appeal to the values voters. Which makes this very interesting indeed.

Knocking out Mitt would be fatal for the guy who doesn't connect with base Republican voters, McCain. And South Carolina is a closed primary.

I truly believe Huckabee is the front-runner right now, such as it is. And only a really gut-level smear campaign can derail him.

And Now The Nastiness

The polls are continuing to show a surge for Mike Huckabee, and not only are voters signing on to the Huck train, political endorsers like the House speaker in Florida are as well.

So of course, it's time for the opponents to go into the dirt, particularly in the historically dirty South Carolina primary. This is a flyer being passed around in the Palmetto State this weekend, courtesy of the "Lynchburg Christian Students For Truth."



It's striking how the critiques of Huckabee from the left and from the right are almost totally different, but the unifying factor is the Wayne Dumond story. While Huckabee tried to claim that story as the provenance of a far-left smear machine, it gets nearly a full treatment here. They conveniently don't mention the fact that Dumond was a Clinton hater cause celebre, but on "law 'n' order" grounds, they are using it. (I prefer the argument that this guy doesn't have a clue what's going on in the world, but what are you gonna do?)

It's completely unclear where this is coming from, but what is clear is that Republican primaries always wind up this way. For all the hype about Reagan's 11th Commandment, the whisper campaign always takeover. And in a race where it doesn't appear that anybody can possibly win, the operative word in this last month will be NASTY.

Scandal Dumond

Jill from Brilliant At Breakfast has the ultimate explanation of the Wayne Dumond situation at The Right's Field. This looks absolutely coordinated. As soon as Huckabee started to become a phenomenon, all of a sudden the media gets interested in the Wayne Dumond story. This is oppo research at its finest. But the facts of that case really aren't in dispute.

In 1988, the campaign of George H.W. Bush ran this ad against Democratic nominee Michael Dukakis. The ad worked, and Dukakis’ reputation as “soft on crime” never recovered.

But with Huckabee, you have a convicted rapist not just released for weekend furloughs, but outright released, and for only one reason: because wingnuts insisted that because the woman Dumond raped initially was a distant cousin of Bill Clinton’s, that by definition that meant Dumond was railroaded, and therefore should be released. The Arkansas parole board, after being pressured by Huckabee, released Dumond [...], who went on to rape and murder at least one, and possibly two more women.

If there had been exculpatory evidence, Huckabee’s decision might have been understandable. But the fact is that Dumond was released from prison for only one reason — because the woman he raped had the misfortune to be distantly related to the man Republicans hate most in the entire universe — more than Fidel Castro, more than they did Saddam Hussein, more than they hate Osama bin Laden, more than they hate Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. And therefore that meant anyone who raped her was by definition innocent.

The wingnuts who pushed for Dumond's release were CONVINCED that Bill Clinton was so powerful that he had relatives pretend to be raped to railroad people into jail. That's the craziness of the Clinton years. And Huckabee bought it completely, so this is rebounding back on him.

What a First-Rate Operation

Here's Mike Huckabee, maybe a week or so away from being your Republican frontrunner, on the biggest international news story on the planet:

Kuhn: I don’t know to what extent you have been briefed or been able to take a look at the NIE report that came out yesterday ...

Huckabee: I’m sorry?

Kuhn: The NIE report, the National Intelligence Estimate on Iran. Have you been briefed or been able to take a look at it —

Huckabee: No.

Kuhn: Have you heard of the finding?

Huckabee: No.

OK, a guy's out campaigning all day, maybe he doesn't pick up on the breaking news. But nobody from his communications staff prepares him for an on-the-record interview? They don't think that, you know, CURRENT EVENTS might come up?

Between this and the third party robocalling and the Wayne Dumond thing back in the news, suddenly Mr. Meteoric Rise looks about to leave a crater.

Here's Mike Huckabee, maybe a week or so away from being your Republican frontrunner, on the biggest international news story on the planet:

Kuhn: I don’t know to what extent you have been briefed or been able to take a look at the NIE report that came out yesterday ...

Huckabee: I’m sorry?

Kuhn: The NIE report, the National Intelligence Estimate on Iran. Have you been briefed or been able to take a look at it —

Huckabee: No.

Kuhn: Have you heard of the finding?

Huckabee: No.

OK, a guy's out campaigning all day, maybe he doesn't pick up on the breaking news. But nobody from his communications staff prepares him for an on-the-record interview? They don't think that, you know, CURRENT EVENTS might come up?

Between this and the third party robocalling and the Wayne Dumond thing back in the news, suddenly Mr. Meteoric Rise looks about to leave a crater.

UPDATE: The Chicago Tribune has a story on this, as well as The Hotline. This is not going to be pretty.

"I don't know where the intelligence is coming from that says that they suspended the program and how credible that is versus the news that they actually are expanding it," he said. "And then I've heard the last two weeks supposed reports that say that they are accelerating and could be having a reactor in a much shorter period of time than originally they thought."

"I don't know where these boys with their newfangled machinery and techno-wizardry get off saying Iran doesn't have a n- CIA? What's that, a new pro cockfighting league? 16 intelligence agencies? Get out of town. Far as I know, we only got one higher intelligence, and that's the good Lord Jesus Christ!"

Huckabee's Own Shag Fund - For Shag Carpets, And More

The new frontrunner in Iowa is starting to attract some scrutiny across the media. This article from the Los Angeles Times offers a good compendium of the more damaging charges. Obviously there is the insufficient fealty to tax cuts and inappropriate concern for sick kids and poor people in Arkansas (I mean, can you imagine?). Huckabee has signed the Grover Norquist "no new taxes" pledge, so maybe that's not a problem for him anymore.

The Times managed to cover the Wayne Dumont angle without actually explaining the whole story:

Shortly after he became governor, Huckabee expressed his support for the release of a convicted rapist -- who, once freed, sexually assaulted another woman and killed her. Wayne Dumond had been sentenced to life plus 20 years in 1984 for raping a 17-year-old cheerleader. Tucker, Huckabee's predecessor, reduced Dumond's sentence in 1992, making him eligible for parole.

In 1996, according to the Democrat-Gazette, Huckabee questioned Dumond's guilt and said he might commute his sentence to time served. He also met with the parole board in a closed session. Some board members have said Huckabee pressured them into releasing Dumond; others said he did not.

Dumond was released from prison in October 1999. He chose his next victim 11 months later.

What isn't expressed is that Dumond's first victim was a distant cousin of Bill Clinton, and it became a wingnut cause celebre to release him.

But the real revelations in the article concern Huckabee's venality - his belief in being entitled to gifts and perks common for a Southern preacher but not a politician.

During his years in office, the media scrutinized numerous mini-scandals, including an allegation that he used public funds for private purposes, and failed to properly report gifts and income. Huckabee was cited five times for violating ethics rules by the Arkansas Ethics Commission.

Toward the beginning of Huckabee's governorship, the Arkansas Times, an alternative weekly, reported that his family had used a fund meant for upkeep of the governor's mansion for expenses like out-of-town trips and dry-cleaning.

As he was preparing to leave office, local media reported that bridal registries had been established at two stores for the governor and his wife, even though they had been married for more than 30 years. State ethics laws prohibited Huckabee from receiving gifts of more than $100 as a reward for doing his job. But there was an exception for wedding presents. The Huckabees had registered for nearly $7,000 in housewares as they prepared to move to a private residence.

Arkansas Times Executive Editor Max Brantley -- a longtime nemesis of Huckabee's -- said Huckabee's ethics violations and other gaffes probably stemmed from his preacher's background, in which "love offerings," or gifts to the pastor, were encouraged.

That's practically Giuliani-esque. Good thing there's no Judith Nathan in his life, or he would have bankrupted the Arkansas budget!

Perhaps more damaging in a general election are the quotes that show how Huckabee's religious life informs his political life. His clever dodge of a question in the YouTube debate about the death penalty, claiming that "Jesus was too smart to run for public office," belies the fact that he answered the question in the context of Jesus before:

“Interestingly enough,” Huckabee allowed, “if there was ever an occasion for someone to have argued against the death penalty, I think Jesus could have done so on the cross and said, ‘This is an unjust punishment and I deserve clemency’.”

State-sponsored killing: OK with Jesus, OK with me.

And that's how it's gone on a number of issues, as Matt Taibbi recounted in a must-read for Rolling Stone.

But Huckabee is also something else: full-blown nuts, a Christian goofball of the highest order. He believes the Earth may be only 6,000 years old, angrily rejects the evidence that human beings evolved from "primates" and thinks America wouldn't need so much Mexican labor if we allowed every aborted fetus to grow up and enter the workforce [...]

The troubling thing about Huckabee's God rhetoric is that a man who is glad that Christians will "win" at Armageddon must be happy about the rest of us losing. When I press him on whether he believes all non-Christians are eternally damned, Huckabee is evasive. "Being president isn't about picking who goes to heaven and who goes to hell," he says. When none other than Bill O'Reilly hammered him on the same point a day later, Huckabee conceded that "I believe Jesus is the way to heaven."

This God stuff isn't just talk with Huck. One of his first acts as governor was to block Medicaid from funding an abortion for a mentally retarded teen ager who had been raped by her stepfather — an act in direct violation of federal law, which requires states to pay for abortions in cases of rape. "The state didn't fund a single such abortion while Huckabee was governor," says Dr. William Harrison of the Fayetteville Women's Clinic. "Zero."

As president, Huck would support a constitutional amendment banning abortion and would give science a back seat to religion. "Science changes with every generation and with new discoveries, and God doesn't," he says. "So I'll stick with God if the two are in conflict." Huckabee's well-documented disdain for science was reflected in the performance of the Arkansas school system when he was governor; one independent survey gave the state an F for its science standards in schools, a grade that among other things reflected Huckabee's hostility toward the teaching of evolution.

Obviously, some of this scrutiny will help Huckabee among hard-core conservatives, and some of it will hurt him. But at least there's a little catch-up being done on the true nature of this guy.