Saturday, July 23, 2011
[Saturday] Sox Talk: Is It Hot in Here, Or Is It Them? And: Steroids, Jeter, and Thome
But the Red Sox, about whom I have not written of late, are also pretty damned hot. They are 8-2 in their last ten games, have the second best record in baseball, and have hit the 60 win mark faster than at any point since the Fred Lynn-Jim Rice "Gold Dust Twins" era. And they have been doing it all with a depleted roster that has been beleaguered by injuries -- 60% of the starting rotation is on the disabled list and Carl Crawford just returned.
I'd like to think that all of this means that this team is not even close to peaking. Which is good for at least two reasons. For all of their accomplishments just past the midway point the Sox are still only two games clear of the Yankees, who are the only team with an even better run differential than the Yankees, which is the key factor in figuring out Pythag projections. And if we are willing to project to the end game I hope happens, the likely National League champion right now seems to be a Phillies team that looks even better than the Sox do and that has what is clearly one of the better rotations in a generation or more, surpassed only by the 1990s Braves in my memory.
The Sox just started a twenty game stretch of games that should help clarify things. They host Seattle now, facing a wretched Mariners team and will follow that up with a Kansas City visit in which the away team's rallying cry is "we're not quite the worst team in the AL!" From there they get a three game trip to Chicago to face a White Sox team whose most interesting element their cumbustible manager but who are probably still in the running for a mediocre AL Central. Then it is back home to face Cleveland, which had every sign of a team ready to fold it in after setting the world on fire in April and then collapsing soon after but that is back in the running of the aforesaid Central. Three games in Fenway against the Yankees should give us a really good sense of the direction the divisional race will take, though that is likely not to be the last clash between these two teams, and then the Twins meet up with the Sox in Fenway before the Sox get their next off day.
A few words on Derek Jeter and Jim Thome. Both have hit or are about to reach monumental landmarks, Jeter becoming the first Yankee to reach 3000 hits and Thome about to surpass 600 home runs. Jeter is surely a great player even if he is simultaneously a vastly overrated player. Thome is probably rated right about where he should be given that we do not really know what power numbers mean anymore even for those of us who think the steroid scandals, while bad for the sport, created ginned up outrage among the media that did not really reflect fan outrage to the same degree. But while we are on the steroids thing, let's just keep in mind that a lot of those same media members are now saying that Jeter and Thome have never been tainted by steroids. And it would be unfair to do so without evidence (not that lack of evidence has stopped the speculation before, but the media loves Jeter in a way that they never loved other guys). But one of the forms of circumstantial evidence that people happily used against, say, Barry Bonds was that OMG Look How Big He Got. And his head grew!!! Ok.
Jeter as a rookie:
And Jeter more recently:
All I'm saying is that using the head growth argument as a form of evidence brings us down a slippery slope because, and I want to be nice here, Jeter's current head appears to have swallowed his rookie head and left room for seconds.
And Jim Thome:
Rookie:
And now:
(Please do your own Google image searches because obviously this is an imperfect measurement -- which is, of course, my point).
See, when journalists say that an athlete "has not been tainted" the passive construction masks who tends to do the tainting, which is, of course, that selfsame media. Now, before anyone goes crazy, I do not have any reason to believe that Jeter or Thome (or for that matter Cal Ripken, who also got a lot bigger over his career, and whose longevity streak happens to coincide with the one thing that we know that steroids do even more than increasing power, which is increase the ability to fend off and recover from injury) ever took steroids. I'm just saying what I'm saying, which is that there was always an asymmetrical approach to steroids (by a media that managed to miss almost the entirety of the steroid era while it was happening, by the way, and yet managed to be the most outraged constituency of all once they caught up to the story) that was based as much on personality as it was on concerns about journalism.
Thursday, June 30, 2011
Friday Sox Talk: Travel Edition
Let's get to the brunt of the matter: interleague play is not working out well for the Sox, who have lost every series in this leg against the National League and might be on the verge of getting swept by a Phillies team most people expect to be a potential World Series foe for the Sox. It all comes back to what I've said before and will play again. This team as not as bad as they looked in April and we not as good as they seemed at the beginning of June. They are better than they have played of late. It's pretty clear that this is not a 105-win Sox team. But they have to be better than this. The division still seems to be theirs to claim, but they do have to claim it. I'm tired of checking in only to find another loss to a National League team.
I'm now at Durban's beachfront, having moved on to the Garden Court Marine Parade. I plan to spend the weekend decompressing, catching up on some work and digging into South African life and politics and generally enjoying is country I love so much. You can check out more extensive updates, including on my conference, at the FPA Africa Blog.
Friday, June 17, 2011
Red Sox Report: Airport iPad Edition
The Red Sox have, in a word, been awesome of late, sweeping away just about everything in their path, with the closest call in the last couple of weeks being a loss to open the recent series against the Rays, and even then they came back to win the next two and take the series.
We are in a nice part of the sports year. There is time to breathe after the Bruins' glorious run to the Stanley Cup and the NBA is a feint memory (though I almost wish I had a class this summer term if only to see West Texans discover that there are NBA teams in Texas in the same way that they discovered that Dallas-Fort Worth had a baseball team last fall. And so barring a few intermittent events (soccer here and there - I am writing this on my way to California whe I have tickets to the finals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup in the Rose Bowl in addition to seats at a Dodgers-Angels game and U2 in Angels Stadium - the US track championships and subsequent world championships) baseball takes center stage.
The Red Sox are in a position to take the East and possibly to do so in dominant fashion. Injuries are always a possibility (Clay Buchholz has a worrying back issue and we've already lost DiceK for the season) and we've seen this team struggle with slumps this season already. But as of right now the Sox look set to shine in a period when baseball can dominate the sporting calendar.
As I said, I am en route to California for about ten days and then from LA I'll be flying straight to my annual South Africa trip. Oh, and have I mentioned that I got an iPad?
Friday, June 03, 2011
Friday Red Sox Report: Back on the Skids
What to make of DiceK needing Tommy John surgery? Well, first, if he needs it he needs it. There was apparently a dispute as to whether he should go under the knife or simply let rest work its magic, but that had to be an effort at magical thinking. Guys who need Tommy John surgery actually need the surgery. Hoping that it will heal given time is a recipe for, well, for eventually needing surgery when rest fails as a medical option. Dicek came in with such high hopes and objectively he has not met those expectations. But one of the benefits of having a solid revenue stream (and let's not pretend that the Red Sox are simply one of a fortunate few -- it is the work the organization has done to make sure the team is competitive year-in and year-out that has put them in this position) is that they can afford to take risks like winning the bidding for DiceK and then rolling the dice (ha!) on signing him to a long-term deal. He still contributed to a World Series win, and that makes it worth it for just about any team, none moreso that a Red Sox fan base that should well recall the pre-2004 mindset.
So I suppose that we can look at this little bad streak as an adjustment. As I said last week, this team was never as bad as they seemed in April. They are not as good as they seemed for most of May. But I am going to continue to bet going forward on more of the latter and less of the former as baseball takes center stage in the summer months.
Friday, May 27, 2011
Friday Red Sox Report: Two Weeks of Bliss
Still: Fuck yeah!
This is more like it. They are banging the piss out of the ball and preventing the other guys from doing the same. And the rising tide has elevated nearly every boat. Carl Crawford's slow start is giving way to him showing major flashes of being the guy who signed a monster contract in the offseason. Consecutive four-hit games will do something for a struggling man's numbers, and his .244/.277/.368 is merely bad, not wretched, and those numbers are on an upward trajectory. The same can be said for the team as a whole, which had been mired in the middle of the league in the various offensive measurements, crude and otherwise. They now rank 3rd in batting average (crude!) 4th in runs, and second in both on base percentage and slugging (otherwise!)
The pitching has not been quite as glorious in the aggregate, but the Sox are missing 40% of their starters and the 1-2 punch of Josh Beckett (I have no answer to it either) and Jon Lester is getting support from Buchholz and others. The ageless Tim Wakefield had a marvelous start last weekend and Alfredo Aceves has done well after being thrust into the starting rotation, something all the more gratifying because he was plucked off the scrap heap of the Yankees.
Suddenly the Sox are in a virtual tie with the Yankees for first place, with Tampa 1.5 back (and the O's at .500 and Blue Jays only two under) and they have the third best record in the American League. This is what I think we all expected. And this is what we'd love to see going forward.
Now, since last I wrote (I was in San Antonio last weekend, thus the absence) the Sox have gone 11-2, a pace I'd love for them to continue, but let's be realistic. But this is the team I think we all hoped to see. The AL East is going to go down to the wire, and that's as it should be. But there is ample reason to believe that when it all shakes out, Boston will be looking at another postseason berth and another shot at October Glory.
Friday, May 13, 2011
Friday Red Sox Report: New Verse, Same as the First
Mediocrity is in some ways even more frustrating than abject badness. They win a couple, they lose a couple, each winning streak yin met with a losing streak yang, every sign of hope dampened by worrisome trends. .500 becomes the top of the hill, each new opposing team Sisyphus' rock.
Tonight the second season series with the Yankees kicks off in the New Toilet Bowl in the Bronx. I have a nice bet with Holmes this year -- every year we have different stakes, sometimes tied to sauces from our respective barbecue hotbeds, sometimes requiring the loser to buy the winner a hat or tee or shorts from a local sports team, or the other's favorite sports teams. This year's bet has an air of the philanthropic about it, as for each win equals five dollars for the charity of the winner's choice. The Sox are up 2-1 early on, so $10 is allocated to the Jimmy Fund, and I believe I am at $5 and counting for Children's Hospital. There are no losers in this one, though I hope my side wins a lot more.
This would be a great time to get rolling on the winning streak that we Sox fans have been counting on. The Yankees lead the way in the East but are themselves vulnerable. Someone will distinguish themselves in the division this year. Now would be a good time for the Sox to do so. I'd as soon not be reflecting on another .500 week seven days from now.
The Yankees Suck.
Friday, May 06, 2011
Friday Red Sox Report: Can't Anybody Here Play This Game?
At a certain point seemingly unlimited promise does not get the job done. Indeed there is nothing more disappointing than when promise fails to fulfill itself. Realistically, everyone thought the Indians would be wretched, so their performance is especially welcome for Cleveland fans. Or alternatively, baseball fans in Kansas City cannot possibly enter any given season with especially high hopes. But Red Sox fans? Well, our expectations are simply higher, and everything fuels those expectations, including management that knows it can get away with the highest ticket prices in baseball because the seemingly inexorable march through the Fenway turnstiles continues apace.
That said, it is still nearly impossible for me to imagine that this team will not start hitting in particular. Carl Crawford reminds me a lot of Edgar Renteria in 2005. It's easy (and self congratulatory) for Sox fans simply to chalk some players' inability to perform to the heightened expectations, knowledge, and intensity of the fan base. My guess is that most of the pressure Crawford is feeling comes from within. But whatever the circumstances, new guys tend to feel disproportionate heat when things go awry. All know is that a .515 OPS isn't going to get it done. Not in Fenway, but realistically, not anywhere. He's shown signs of life the last week or so, and that has to continue. But the rest of the lineup needs to produce as well. They rank 17th in runs and 19th in slugging percentage. That is, to be blunt, horrid.
The Sox have four games against an even more struggling Minnesota team and then two games against the Blue Jays, a team that probably is beginning to think it has a chance in the AL East. Then a week from today commences the second series of the season with the Yanks. It would be nice to be closer to first than to last when that happens. But it's not going to happen if they do not start putting the wood on the ball and keeping the other guys from doing the same.
Friday, April 22, 2011
Friday Red Sox Report: After the Deluge
That said: Eeeesh. The Red Sox had a horrible start to the season, but one that I suspected would recede into the rearview mirror over the course of a very long season. Barring some sort of cataclysm, this Sox team simply was not going to continue to flail. Their outlier came early, and while clawing back into contention became a lot more difficult after the first week or so of the season it would have been foolhardy to believe they would not right the ship. Lots of experts started pulling out statistics about teams that started 1-7 or 2-10 and came up with the same ominous result: Teams with those sorts of starts don't win championships. Well, no shit. they were bad teams that started off badly. This Sox team is a good team that started off badly. Not recognizing the two represents obtuseness. Of course obtuseness tends to reign among the sorts of folks who get paid a lot to discern that the majority of teams that start off badly don't finish well.
Since then the hitters have hit well and the pitchers have pitched well, and lo and behold, the Sox have won some games. As I write this they lead Anaheim or Fake Los Angeles or wherever the hell they hail from 3-0 after taking a big win in extra innings last night. They will be climbing out of the hole they dug early for quite some time now. But the Red Sox will be just fine just as the hot-starting Baltimore Orioles will end up wallowing in mediocrity. Ten games in baseball is a tiny sample size, equivalent to a single NFL regular season game.
[I will say this: 2004 (and 2007) made the brink seem a lot farther away than it otherwise would.]
Friday, April 01, 2011
Friday Sox Report: Opening Day Edition
It's Opening Day (Opening Day for me is when the Sox first toss the ball out there for real) and there is much reason for optimism in Red Sox Nation. Despite the fact that lots of people are picking the Sox to do well (usually enough to give pause -- how often is that consensus right?) I am going to agree with them simply because Boston experienced a horrid season of injuries last year and still finished up with 89 wins and were in the running with a week or so to go in the season. Assuming that last year was an outlier -- Pedroia, Youkilis, Ellsbury, Martinez and Cameron missed an average of 88 games to injury last year and much of the pitching staff spent time on the DL.
And if reverting to something resembling a mean on the disabled list would be enough to inspire optimism, the offseason signings of Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzales should be enough to have warmed even the frostiest heart. Gonzales is going to mash in Fenway. He was a stud in San Diego, and PETCO is the worst hitter's park in the game. Crawford meanwhile steps into a better lineup in Boston and is just reaching what should be his peak years. The irony of last year's team is that while they went in preaching the virtues of defense, with cynics wondering where the offense would come from, they ended up having an incredibly potent offense despite some of the lineups Tito was forced to put out there and despite their supposedly weakened situation. This year's team could conceivably bring the team back to its 2003-2005 offensive apex when they were historically good.
The biggest concern is likely with pitcing depth both in the starting rotation and at the back end in the bullpen. In the pen papelbon had his worst year last year and every save opportunity seemd like a misadventure, even when he prevailed. Fortunately Paps is in his contract year, so he has every reason to excel, and they have Daniel Bard and former White Sox closer Bobby Jenks in the wings. Barring some sort of epic season from Papelbon this is likely his last year in a Sox uniform as it would be uncharacteristic of Theo and the rest of management to break the bank for a closer.
On paper the starting rotation looks as if it could be exceptional. but there are some cracks. Lester and Buchholz should continue to improve, though whether they will be top-5 in the Cy Young voting good again remains to be seen. But Daisuke Matsuzaka, Josh Beckett, and John Lackey all disappointed last year. For all of DiceK's potential he is simply maddening, nibbling rather than being aggressive, and as a consequence rarely getting much past the 5th inning. there have been some promising signs this spring (and last fall) but most Sox fans need to see progress when it counts to believe it. Beckett too has been frustrating since his first couple of years in uniform, putting up mediocre numbers and having a hard time avoiding injuries great and small. It felt like a panic move when they extended him last year when he was struggling. He needs a big year to validate the contract and to avoid being the priciest fifth starter in baseball. Lackey too disappointed, though as the season progressed he seemed to get a bit better. Maybe the pressure of the first year in a Sox uniform got to him. Whatever it was, he needs to improve. Ageless knuckleballer Tim Wakefield returns as well but he is at the stage in his career where he is better seen as a stopgap than a regular starter, though reports of his demise have proven premature in the past.
The season starts against Texas, here in the Lone Star State, and were it not for an unfortunate foot injury that's kept me on my own version of the DL the last ten days I'd be getting up there this weekend. But I'll be watching here at home and obviously will hope that the Red Sox get out of the gate strong and keep it rolling. Once again the AL East will be beastly. The Blue Jays and Orioles are no slouches. It seems a long time since Tampa was a laughingstock and even after some of their offseason losses have likely become "perennial" contenders, though they have to hope they continue to replicate their farm system success. Then there are the Yankees. I suspect that they have loved being discounted by just about every pundit. yes, they did not have the offseason they had hoped for, largely because they put all of their eggs in the Cliff Lee basket and they never hatched. but something tells me that the demise of the Yankees has been greatly exaggerated. they will be there in September when postseason berths are being allotted.
Monday, March 21, 2011
News Flash! Integration Was Good For Baseball
Tuesday, November 30, 2010
Now Batting for the Red Sox, Number 2, Derek Jeter?
This is nothing more than idle speculation as far as I can tell. Jeter's prime is long past, and so the Red Sox should not want him for anything more than a cost-contained option to tweak the Yankees and then only if Jeter is willing to move to third (even if they ultimately use him as a shortstop -- I still hope they re-sign Beltre).
But can you imagine the reaction? Just for that reason (and because the Sox have plenty of money) I'd love to see them offer Jeter, say, four years and $64 million or even three years and $57 million. Stoke the bidding process, stoke the rivalry, and maybe acquire a stopgap shortstop.
I respect Jeter even if he is one of the most overrated players in the history of sports. But just from a brinksmanship angle this makes some sense. The Yankees almost certainly won't let him go to the Red Sox, certainly not over a few million dollars or an extra contract year. But can you imagine if they did? Criminy.
I's not going to happen. But this is a nice palate cleanser between hideous Monday Night games matching Arizona and San Francisco and the nightmare that is the BCS. Plus, it provides a nice lead-in to Pats-Jets on Monday night.
Thursday, October 14, 2010
Bill James and the Simpsons
Even in making fun of statistical analysis, the episode (inadvertently?) got at a larger truth: stealing bases is actually pretty dumb much of the time (not always, just much and possibly most of the time).
Sunday, September 05, 2010
Stupid is As Stupid Does
Is it stupidity? Is it rank dishonesty? At a certain point with modern-day conservatives it really isn't cost-effective to make the distinction, now is it?
Monday, April 05, 2010
dcat's National League Preview (With World Series Pick!)
NL East
1. Phillies: This quasi-dynasty in the making had a peculiar offseason, effectively swapping proven postseason commodity Cliff Lee for Uber-Ace Roy Halladay. Very good rotation, strong lineup, postseason experience: I think you'd be a fool not to pencil Philly in to the postseason.
2. Braves: They have the most exciting young position player in baseball in Jason Heyward. The rotation is sneaky good. But they are rolling the dice with Takaski Saito and Billy Wagner at the back of the bullpen.
3. Mets: The sun will rise, the sun will set, Mets will get injured, and they will disappoint their fans, aka the fans of New York's other team.
4. Marlins: They have Hanley Ramirez going for them, which is nice. Although keep in mind that some years this front office really tries to win. But what a lousy team to root for as a consequence in all of those other years.
5. Nationals: I have Stephen Strasburg on my fantasy team just because at some point they are going to have to bring him up just to get people to go to games. This will be an improved team, but by how much, and will it matter?
NL Central:
1. Cardinals: Always good, rarely great (even when they won the World Series in 2005) but they have the best player in the game, a strong rotation, and a decent lineup. It is difficult to begrudge this team and their fans their success.
2. Cubs: Remember last year when they were a hot choice to win it all? That was then. Expectations are low, which might benefit this team. But I look at their lineup, their pitching staff, their bullpen, and I just see nothing that makes me think that the best thing about Wrigley this year won't yet again be Wrigley itself.
3. Brewers: Or maybe the Reds.
4. Reds: Or maybe the Brewers. Though I have to say, I love them stepping up for the moderate-risk, high-reward Aroldis Chapman signing.
5. Astros: Ever since they made their improbable run to the World Series a few years back it seems as if this team has just disappeared. I will root for Brad Mills, their first-year manager and Terry Francona's long-time right-hand man with the Sox. By the way: Is it me, or is the NL Central really freaking dull?
6. Pirates: It is nearly impossible for casual fans to have any reason to understand that this is one of the great franchises in baseball history. We need to find a way to get them in the same division as the Royals.
NL West:
1. Rockies: Every year this is a competitive division, and it seems that every year someone different wins, and someone good fades. They have done a good job of developing an organization that produces players and they have built the team to their ballpark. The lineup is really disciplined too, drawing loads of walks and therefore seeing lots of pitches. It will pay off this year.
2. Dodgers*: The Dodgers seem to be in the running every year. This year won't be any difference. Manny is flying below the radar, the Broxton-Sherrill bullpen combo should shorten games, and they seem to be made up of solid if not spectacular guys up and down the lineup. That's not a key to a World Series championship, but it should keep Chavez Ravine open into October.
3. Diamondbacks: If they can just improve their OBP slightly this is a team that should score tons of runs. And if they can score lots of runs they can win lots of games, or at least keep fans entertained in the Valley of the Sun.
4. Giants: Largely because I don't see Tim Lincecum, with that frame, continuing to be an ace without dealing with some injuries. This is not, to say the least, a great hitting team. And without Lincecum it could get ugly. And yes, I am predicating my entire guess on the San Francisco season in 2010 on an injury that has shown no sign of coming.
5. Padres: Sure -- if the Pads are in the crapper in July it increases the odds that the Sox are in the Adrian Gonzalez sweepstakes. But it's not like I wish ill on them. I just suspect that illness is coming no matter what, and if I can provide a gentle nudge, well . . .
* Denotes Wild Card Winner
NLDS:
Phillies over Dodgers
Rockies over Cardinals
NLCS:
Phillies over Rockies
World Series:
Red Sox over Phillies
dcat's MLB Preview: American League
AL East:
1. Red Sox: Look, by now you should be used to homer picks from me. But since I've been writing dcat, there has never been a year when picking the Sox to succeed has exactly been pie-in-the-sky stuff. The narrative for this year's Sox is pretty well set: They decided to go with pitching and defense at the expense of offense, as indicated by letting Jason Bay sign with the star-crossed Mets and placing Mike Cameron in center field and Adrian Beltre at third. And this is true for what it is worth. But they also upgraded at shortstop on O and D by bringing in Marco Scutaro from the Blue Jays, who had a peculiarly late-blooming career year at the plate. Meanwhile, they went and added Angels ace (the word "bulldog" usually accompanies most descriptions) John Lackey. The fact is, the Red Sox will be in the top five and maybe better in offense in the American league, and whatever drop-off they have at the plate will be more than countered by runs saved on the mound and in the field. Thus their Pythag prediction should have them projecting out to more than 95 wins, and 95 wins is always the target on Yawkey Way. Obviously we worry about Big Papi's bat -- will he be the hitter of April, May and October of last year, or will he be the guy who pounded the ball in June, July, August and September? The answer to this question will go a long way in determining just how much offensive dropoff the Sox experience.
2. Yankees*: Trust me, I wanted to go with the Rays here, and the Rays are a popular choice not only to make the playoffs, but in some circles to win the East. And the Yankees have holes -- their D is not all that good. Their bullpen bridge to Rivera is far from secure, and Joba Chamberlain throwing 93 mph is a long way from him throwing 99 mph. One always assumes that they will get old. But that team can bash. It has enough starting pitching to be competitive on most nights. They seem to be nearly everyone's choice to repeat, and the middle of that lineup is going to pucker the sphincters of a lot of pitchers in the American League. But they have some holes that their supporters do not want to acknowledge even if their detractors (allo guvnah!) play them up too much.
3. Rays: This is an absurdly precocious bunch. And if they all peak at the right time, they could be an even better team than they were two years ago when they went to the World Series. But in this crazy game as much goes wrong as goes right for even the best teams, and I just don't think that Tampa has given themselves a depth of experienced talent that will be able to compete day-n-and-day-out with the Sox and Yanks. That said, I kept expecting them to fold two years ago and it never happened. If they are there in September they just might be there through October. The rest of the country gets sick of hearing it, but goodness, the AL East is loaded, and yet these teams still win 95 or so games a year.
4. Orioles: Another team that has embraced a youth movement, the O's are, simply enough, victims of geography. That's not going to change any time soon. If this team can win some games it will revive what has historically been a pretty good fan base. But when they play the Sox at Camden Yards it becomes Fenway South, and it turns into the Southern Toilet when New York is in town. Win games, fill stands, make money, get better players. That's a blueprint for every team in baseball, of course, but is vital in the AL East with the two leviathans and the upstart Rays.
5. Blue Jays: This was a team that seemed to be on the rise three years ago. I suppose they can find solace in the fact that in most divisions they would not be slotted in to last place. In this one however, if a lot goes right they can pick off the Orioles. That's a rousing thought when trying to inspire a ticket base.
AL Central:
1. Twins: Every year Minnesota is in it to win it. If by "It" we mean the American League Central. In a world where everyone now plays Moneyball (the rich Red Sox every bit as much as any small market team) they still actually have to try to find ways to exploit inefficiencies in the market because they have little money to spend. The new outdoor facility should be a boon to them -- though would you want to attend a game there in October? -- as will be signing hometown All American Boy Joe Mauer to a lengthy extension that all but assures that all of his important years are spent in a Twins uniform. Yeah, losing Joe Nathan is tough, but what does Moneyball tell us about closers? This will be a competitive, if somewhat mediocre, division. the winner might emerge with only 90 wins. I think the Twins will hit that target first.
2. Tigers: Look at that lineup. Pretty cobbled together -- Damon and Ordonez and Cabrera and Everett all have come in from elsewhere in the last year or two. Dontrelle Willis has claimed their third starter spot, which could be a sign of redemption or of desperation. Yet Jim Leyland has this team in a position to compete every day, and they have done so for three years now, playing the role of the Rays before the Rays did.
3. White Sox: I have to admit, the idea of the Windy City Madman having a Twitter account and the wherewithal to use it was almost enough to inspire me to figure out how the hell Twitter works. Almost. This team will frustrate the hell out of Guillen all summer as they struggle to reach 80 wins. That should make for fun reading, assuming you are not sensitive to profanities.
4. Indians: Remember when these guys were one win away from winning the American League and thus getting to face the Rockies and likely winning the World Series in 1997? Yeah, it seems like a long time ago. Maybe Fausto Carmona will return to form. Travis Hafner too. But it's probably going to be a long year at the Jake.
5. Royals: The Royals. it will surprise you to hear, will probably not be very good in 2010. Wash, rinse, repeat.
AL West:
1. Rangers: I suppose this could be seen as a surrogate homer pick since I have lived in Texas for nearly six years. I think the West is going to be wide open. Seattle is a trendy pick. The Angels are the safe pick. The A's are no one's pick. I thought last summer that the Rangers were one year away. By that math it's one year later. That pitching staff will be legitimately decent. The bats will rebound from a disappointing 2009. Neftali Feliz is about to make the leap at the back of the pen. The only reservation I have about the Rangers is the one I have always had: Do you know how freaking hot it gets in Texas for the entirety of the summer? It's 90+ today in West Texas and it's not uncharacteristic. DFW might be mildly cooler, but there will be a ton of 100 degree days in Arlington this year. Try playing in that weather every home game for three (or more) months straight.
2. Angels: The Angels are always good. And they got over the hump of beating the Red Sox in the postseason last year. But they intentionally got a lot older in the offseason (Matsui and Abreu and Hunter -- oh my!) while losing the closest thing thay had to an ace in Lackey. Plus I hate small ball. Though they will have a harder time playing it this year. I may well be most wrong on this one, but I think the Angels might be fighting for third this year.
3. Mariners: If you want to talk about run prevention over run scoring, don't look to Fenway, look to the trendy choice to win the West, which plays at Safeco. But look at that lineup. Eesh. Milton Bradley is slotted in as their cleanup hitter. Ruminate on that for a few minutes and get back to me as to how they win the West.
4. A's: Don't think that Moneyball has been discredited just because Billy Bean is no longer using duct tape and chewing gum to cobble together a team that wins 95 games and the AL West every year. the rest of the league caught up with them. It's harder to exploit inefficiencies when the rest of the league knows what those inefficiencies are, can pay for them, and can pay for stars, the lack of whom led to Moneyball (Not Billy Bean's coinage -- you knew that, right?) in the first place. But, yeah, the A's are going to get last in this division.
* Denotes Projected Wild Card Winner
Postseason:
ALDS:
Sox over Twins
Yanks over Rangers
ALCS:
Sox over Yanks (What, you expected something else?)
Wednesday, March 10, 2010
Nomahhhhh!!!
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
Play Ball! (And Other Cliches)
[Crossposted at the FPA Africa Blog, where I have also been writing about, among other things, Hillary Clinton's trip to Africa, the responsibility of journalists to Africa, what I call the "boosters vs. bashers" debate, rugby, and much more.]
Thursday, August 06, 2009
Yankees: Criminals
Oh, and it goes without saying, but the Yankees Suck!
Wednesday, August 05, 2009
Thurman Munson, In Memoriam
I remember the moment clearly, though I think I have conflated the context. I was riding in my Dad's silver Chevy Blazer, a big-assed SUV in an era where Big-assed was good and no one knew what an SUV was. We were listening to the radio, and they interrupted the broadcast with breaking news. Now keep in mind that this was an age before ESPN, before sports talk radio, before the internet. If you were a sports fan you had the games themselves when they were broadcast, you had the daily newspaper, and you had a few precious minutes on the news in the evening and snippets on the radio. Sports and news were simply not ubiquitous. Breaking news was a big deal, unlike today when the Sportscenter after Pardon the Interruption opens with breaking news virtually every day. ("This just in: Brett Favre could not choose between waffles or pancakes at breakfast this morning.")
Thurmon Munson, the Yankees fireplug of a catcher and the New York version of local hero Carlton Fisk, had gone down in a plane crash in Canton, Ohio in which he was the pilot. He was dead. And I was legitimately crushed. By that time I truly, absolutely, unquestionably loathed the Yankees. I hated Thurman Munson because he embodied the evil doppelganger of Pudge, and because he was the heart and soul of that mighty but detestable Yankees team. But even then I knew that the hate existed within a context and that some things -- life and death -- were more important.
In my memory I have always remembered hearing that broadcast, and its grim updates confirming the fatal climax, in New York with my Dad and his then-girlfriend. That memory is plausible -- she was from New York, Dad enjoyed a good two-or-three year span in which he spent much of his time in New York, even living on Long Island for a spell. My uncle had just moved to Long Island (where he raised my cousins as Red Sox fans, God bless him) and so we went down somewhat regularly in elementary school and junior high. But my guess is that when I heard that terrible news we were simply driving around Newport -- running to a farm supply store or an auto parts place for one of my Dad's projects on the farm. The memory provides a nice symmetry -- young Red Sox fan from a farm in rural New Hampshire driving with his Dad on the outskirts of the big city that represented so much promise and hope and excitement and most of all the damned Yankees, hearing news that for at least a little while changed his worldview. It may not have quite happened where I thought it happened, but the slight transformation, and the intrusion of the real world on what was still at that point the sparkly fantasy world of sports, was very real then, and still strikes me as one of the most real experiences I have had as a sports fan even thirty years hence.