Hurricane Ike Approaches Texas

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It now appears to be only a matter of hours before Hurricane Ike slams into the Texas coast.

Ike is currently a Category 2 storm with wind speeds of 105 miles an hour. By the time Ike reaches Texas, the winds may be anywhere from 111 and 155 miles an hour. The storm surge could be as high as 20 feet.

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"If you live in mandatory evacuation areas and the storm surge comes, you won't have a house. It's not a question of riding it out."

Harris County Judge Ed Emmett

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According to the Galveston County Daily News, the storm surge was already causing flooding in Galveston's downtown area this morning.

The Daily News' weather expert, Stan Blazyk, is blunt about the prospects.

"Unless Ike's track takes a sudden and currently unexpected turn to the north well east of Galveston Island, we are facing the highest tidal surge since at least the 1900 Storm," Blazyk writes (referring to the 1900 hurricane that wiped out Galveston), "and possibly even exceeding that if the highest projected tidal surge materializes."

Hurricane Ike Rearranges Football Schedule

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You know people in Texas are getting concerned about a hurricane when football games get postponed.

Saturday's game between my alma mater, the University of Arkansas, and the University of Texas has been postponed for two weeks because of the dire warnings about Hurricane Ike.

Texans are already fleeing the coast ahead of the storm, which is predicted to make landfall sometime early Saturday. Current projections anticipate a Category 3 storm.

The Arkansas-Texas game is supposed to be played in Austin — which lies in Ike's path, even though Austin is roughly 200 miles west-northwest from Galveston on the Gulf coast — but updated projections seem to move the path of the storm away from Austin.

Anyway, the real concern is not so much the hurricane as it is both the unimpeded inland movement of evacuees from the stricken areas and the arrival of the remnants of the hurricane — the wind and the heavy rain — which are predicted to be felt as far north as this area (Dallas) during the weekend.

Both teams have open dates on Sept. 27, so the game has been tentatively re-scheduled for that day. It was originally scheduled to be televised, but that is now undetermined. The time of the kickoff also has not been decided.

The Sept. 27 playing date could still cause headaches for both schools, ESPN says.

"It's the same weekend as the Austin City Limits Music Festival, which annually brings thousands of people to the Austin area. Hotel rooms are difficult to find throughout Central Texas during that weekend. It might be difficult to accommodate the Arkansas team party — much less fans of both schools — because of the festival. And it would also make for a tough stretch for the Longhorns, who start the Big 12 schedule the following week."

ESPN also points out that "Arkansas will also find its schedule more challenging now. The Razorbacks had an open date between games against Alabama and Florida, but now must play the Longhorns in the middle of it."

Well, that's the same three teams the Razorbacks were going to play in the next four weeks, anyway. The difference is that the open date will be this Saturday, not two weeks from now.

But re-scheduling the game won't put the fans or players at risk — unless another hurricane pops up in late September.

ESPN reports that other Texas schools also have made new arrangements for games scheduled for this Saturday:

• The start of the Stanford-TCU game in Fort Worth has been moved up to noon (Central). The game originally was scheduled to start at 6 p.m. (Central).


• Air Force was originally scheduled to play Houston at John O'Quinn Field at Robertson Stadium in Houston. Because of the hurricane, the game has been moved to Gerald J. Ford Stadium at Southern Methodist University in Dallas.

The Austin American-Statesman also reports that more than a dozen area high school football games that were originally scheduled for this Friday have been moved up to tonight.

Ike Meanders Through the Gulf of Mexico

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Hurricane Ike is still making its way through the Gulf of Mexico — and it's still a long way from making landfall.

Experts seems to think it is still likely to make landfall along the Texas coast sometime Saturday morning. As a precautionary measure, some evacuations along the Texas coast were being ordered today.

A high tidal surge is expected in the Galveston area so the evacuation has to be completed by 6 p.m. local time on Thursday. And officials are warning that anyone who stays needs to be aware that there will be times during the storm when no services will be available, when electricity will be out and they won't be able to go out for supplies — "they will absolutely be on their own."

Current projections call for Ike to be a Category 4 storm when it arrives.

And its current path now calls for a rainy weekend in more than half of Texas and Louisiana and in most of Oklahoma and Arkansas.

But Ike's projected path has changed frequently in the last several days so keep an eye on it for awhile.

What a Difference a Day Makes ...

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... in the life of a hurricane.

About 24 hours ago, I was looking at the projected path of Hurricane Ike, which had crossed over Cuba and was hovering over the Caribbean.

As expected, Ike had weakened into a tropical storm during its time on land, but it has shown a tendency to regroup when it gets over water. And it became a hurricane again over those Caribbean waters.

Anyway, at that time, it was expected to make landfall again sometime this afternoon, cross Cuba again, perhaps weakening to a tropical storm again while on land, and then head out to sea, into the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico, where it would strengthen into a significant hurricane, maintaining a west-northwest trajectory.

That projection model took Ike's path to the Galveston area, spreading rain over most of Louisiana and half of Texas by the end of the week.

But the unpredictable nature of hurricanes has shown itself in the last 24 hours.

Ike has proceeded across Cuba again, as expected, but its latest projected path takes it more to the west and less to the northwest.

It barely qualified as a hurricane when it hit Cuba for the second time, but it hadn't spent much time over water before making landfall again.

When it emerges from Cuba, it will have the entire Gulf of Mexico to feed its ravenous appetite.

And that could mean that Ike will be a Category 3 storm when it makes landfall again — wherever that might be. As this storm has demonstrated, long-term projections for hurricanes are virtually useless, and the National Hurricane Center says Ike could make landfall anywhere from northern Mexico to the Texas-Louisiana border.

For awhile Louisiana was out of the picture for significant rainfall, according to the projection, while most of Texas was going to get some rain from Ike.

And the hurricane was expected to make landfall south of Corpus Christi, Texas, instead of near Galveston — which is nearly 200 miles north of Corpus Christi.

But the late afternoon projection today now calls for Ike to make a sudden turn to the right while it's still in the Gulf (its projected path is becoming weirdly reminiscent of Kevin Costner's description of the zig-zag path of the "magic bullet" in "JFK") and may now make landfall near Galveston after all.

And the projection now calls for western Louisiana to see some rain this weekend, along with nearly all of Texas and all of Oklahoma. Western Arkansas should also see some rain, according to the latest projection.

Keep your eyes on this one. It could still do just about anything.

What Will Be Hurricane Ike's Next Move?

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Hurricane Ike made landfall on the island of Cuba and weakened to a Category 1 storm, but its present projected path would take it back over water before long.

And, in Ike's brief but potent existence, the storm has shown a tendency to intensify when it's over water.

It's still far too early to tell what the storm may do. Its current path would take it to the Texas coast, possibly the Galveston area.

But the path could change once the storm begins its trek across the Gulf of Mexico.

The Galveston County Daily News isn't sounding any alarms yet — but it's wisely monitoring the storm's progress.

At this point, that's about all anyone can do.

Hurricane Ike Makes Landfall in Cuba

Hurricane Ike made landfall in Cuba today, and its projected path appears to lead it across the entire island.

After that, it's anyone's guess what it will do. The projected path takes Ike into the Gulf of Mexico, where projections seem to take it west of New Orleans.

But hurricanes can do funny things. At 7 p.m. Central time, the hurricane had sustained winds of 120 miles an hour with higher gusts. It was moving in a westward direction at about 14 miles an hour.

Once the hurricane passes over Cuba and gets into the open Gulf waters, there's no telling what will happen, although the projections call for it to continue moving in a west-northwest direction.

If you live along the Gulf, especially in Texas or Louisiana, keep your eyes on this storm. At the very least, it looks capable of dumping a lot of rain in your area before the end of the week.

There may also be some heavy rain in southern Mississippi and Alabama.

A Look at 'The Map'

During the weekend, I wrote about the Electoral College and how it works (read: how it really elects the president), and I made my first assessment of Barack Obama and John McCain in their head-to-head matchup in the Electoral College about a month ago.

Today, Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics weighed in.

"[E]xcept for the guessing game about the vice presidential nominations," Sabato writes, "there's no greater fun to be had in July."

And he affirms some of the points I've been making.

For example ...

Sabato concedes that "[i]t is highly likely that a half-dozen or more states will flip sides," but he confirms my point, which has been that past election results are a pretty good way to assess the chances that a party's nominee has of winning a given state.

If, as Sabato says, "a half-dozen or more" states switch party allegiances this fall, "that suggests that around 40 states may keep the same color scheme."

And, Sabato writes, "If November unexpectedly becomes a landslide for one party, then many states may temporarily defect from their usual allegiances."

The key word in that sentence, whether you're Obama or McCain, is "temporarily." The winner of such a state can't count on its support when the next presidential election campaign rolls around.

For example, if Obama carries Colorado, as many people are suggesting that he might, that would be a significant shift in voting behavior. Colorado has voted for every Republican since 1968 — with the solitary exception of voting for Bill Clinton in 1992 (but the voters there resumed their Republican pattern when Clinton ran for re-election).

At this stage of the campaign — nearly four months before Election Day without knowing the identities of either running mate or what may happen in the world before the voters go to the polls — Sabato says it is necessary "to assume that the election will be basically competitive, let's say with the winner receiving 52% or less of the two-party vote."

A lot can happen in four months, and Sabato says "If one candidate's proportion of the vote climbs above 52%, then virtually all the swing states will move in his direction."

In Sabato's current scenario, there are eight states worth a total of 99 electoral votes that qualify as "swing states" — Colorado, Michigan, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. It's a mix of small states (New Hampshire and Nevada), mid-sized states (Colorado, Virginia, Wisconsin) and large states (Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania).

If these states are still the swing states by the middle of October, states like New Hampshire and Nevada can expect to get as much attention from both parties as Ohio and Pennsylvania.

If this race is as close as it was in 2000, every electoral vote will matter.

Which leads me to another interesting point that Sabato makes.

"History also suggests that the Electoral College system is only critical when the popular vote is reasonably close or disputed. That is, the College can potentially or actually upend the popular vote just in elections where the major-party candidates are within a point or two of one another."

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So where does Sabato think things stand on July 10?

Well, he starts with the states that appear to be "solid" for one party or another.

Obama has 13 states (California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington) and D.C. in that column, worth 183 electoral votes.

McCain has 17 "solid" states (Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wyoming) worth 144 electoral votes.

Sabato thinks it would be futile for either candidate to make much of an effort to win any of the "solid" states from the other, and I'm inclined to agree.

I think Sabato is right when he says McCain "will end up wasting a lot of money" if he tries to win a state like California. And I also think Sabato is right when he says he "will be surprised" if Obama is successful at capturing any of McCain's "solid" states — although he acknowledges the possibility that Obama could win Indiana if he puts Sen. Evan Bayh on his ticket.

From the "solid" states, we move on to the ones where the candidates are "likely" to win. These are also states where the chances are better for the opponent to pull off an upset.

Sabato lists only two "likely" states for Obama — Oregon and Minnesota — worth 17 votes (that gives Obama a total of 200 electoral votes from 15 states and D.C.). He lists five "likely" states — Alaska, Georgia, Mississippi, Montana and North Dakota — worth 30 electoral votes for McCain (and that gives him 174 electoral votes from 22 states).

From Obama's list, Sabato says McCain's best shot at an upset is in Oregon. "The only way McCain could steal Minnesota is by picking Gov. Tim Pawlenty as his running mate," Sabato says. "However, even a McCain-Pawlenty ticket would have a 50-50 chance, at best, of carrying Minnesota."

Sabato rates Obama's chances of winning some of McCain's "likely" states as better than his opponent's chances, but he's skeptical about the claim that Obama can produce enough of a turnout among blacks to reverse voting patterns of four decades in the South.

"If Libertarian nominee and former Georgia GOP Congressman Bob Barr wins his projected 6 to 8% in the Peach State, or if Obama chooses former U.S. Senator Sam Nunn of Georgia, Obama could have a shot at a plurality victory," Sabato says, "but for now we'll bet on McCain ... A giant African-American turnout might shift Mississippi (38% black) to Obama, but that is not our gamble."

That leaves the states that are "leaning" in one direction or another.

Again, there are two states in Obama's column — Iowa and New Mexico — worth 12 electoral votes. If those two states, along with the "likely" states and the "solid" states that Sabato has identified, do indeed vote for Obama, that gives him 212 electoral votes from 17 states and D.C.

McCain has three states "leaning" in his favor — Florida, Missouri, North Carolina — worth 53 electoral votes. If McCain sweeps all the states in his column, he will receive 227 electoral votes from 25 states.

Of the leaners, Sabato seems confident that Obama can hold both Iowa and New Mexico, especially if he puts New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson on his ticket.

In McCain's case, Sabato says, "If he loses even one of them, he will be up against the Electoral College wall."

So then it's up to the states that are too close to call.

"If Obama carries Colorado, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, he's already at 269 (one vote short), and would need just one of the following states: Ohio, New Hampshire, Nevada, and Virginia," Sabato writes.

"Of course, if McCain managed to secure Ohio, New Hampshire, Nevada, and Virginia, we'd be at that fabled 269-269 tie."

And, Sabato continues, "If McCain can grab Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin, while holding Ohio, he's back in the hunt, with smaller toss-up states proving decisive."

Actually, Sabato's prediction isn't that much different from my own. He allowed himself the luxury of putting the troublesome states in the "toss-up" column. But, excluding the "toss-ups," our predictions were identical.

In my prediction, I gave McCain six of the eight states Sabato lists as "toss-ups" — and, in my scenario, that gave him a 295-243 victory in the Electoral College.

It's all a guessing game right now.

Will the running mates make a difference?

What will happen in the world between now and November 4?