Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:            

• Biden Will Get Little Inflation Relief If He Eases China Tariffs.  
• TikTok’s US Data Admission Stokes Fresh Concerns With Republican FCC Member.  
• Shanghai Mass Testing Fuels Concern Another Lockdown Looms.  
• China’s Housing Market Pain Set to Continue After Sales Bottom.
• Singapore's Sky-High Car Prices Are a Warning for Global Cities.
• Stocks Slip in Asia While Crude Oil Pares Plunge: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Steadies Above $100 After Plunging on Recession Concerns.
  
• Michael Burry Sees Inflation Sticking Around as Geopolitical Turmoil Drives US Manufacturing.
• Natural Gas Soars 700%, Becoming Driving Force in the New Cold War.  
• Bridgewater’s Flagship Hedge Fund Gains 32% for First Half of Year.

Wall Street Journal:     

• ESG Feeds Inflation, Hurts Economic Growth. When companies divert their attention to social goals, they produce less, driving prices higher.
• Russian Army Turns Ukraine Nuclear Plant Into a Base.
• Short Sellers Pull Back on Their Bets.
• Red States Are Winning the Post-Pandemic Economy.
• EU Approves Sweeping Digital Regulations.
• Americans Tap Savings to Cope With Inflation.
• Walmart Tells Suppliers New Fuel and Pickup Fees Are Coming.

Fox News:

• Parade shooting suspect's parents speak out after troubling reports about upbringing, police run-ins.
• Highland Park and Chicago gun laws are among the strictest in the country.
• Biden admin sues state over law requiring voters prove they're American.

CNBC.com:

• The second half is ‘not looking good’: Strategists on how to weather the market storm.
• Bonds flash recession warning light as key part of the yield curve inverts again.
• Euro slides to 20-year low against the dollar amid recession worries. 
  

MarketWatch:           

• Credit Suisse cuts S&P 500 target again for 2022 as U.S. stocks sink.
  
• Are markets underestimating how far the Fed must go to tame inflation?  
• Bitcoin miners struggle with crypto’s price decline, rising energy costs, and increase in mining difficulty.
  
• Euro to reach parity against the U.S. dollar unless natural-gas crisis ends, Citi strategists warn.

Zero Hedge:

• DeSantis' Team Responds To Newsom Ad Saying Florida Residents Should Move To California.
• Canada's Health Minister: "You Will Never Be Fully-Vaxxed".
• Mexico President: Free Assange Or Dismantle Statue Of Liberty.
• Cross-Dressing Parade Gunman Bought 5 Weapons Despite Threats.
• Dutch Cops Shoot At Farmers Protest After 'Threatening Situation' Arose.
• The World's Third-Largest Economy Is Facing A Looming Energy Crisis.
• Victor Davis Hanson: The Great Regression.
• "I'll Be Happy When I'm Not Mayor" Philadelphia's Jim Kenney Tells Reporters After July 4 Shooting.
• US stocks were choppy as recession fears weighed on cyclicals but duration-sensitive staged a comeback on lower yields, while oil suffered a near-record slump - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• "Disarm The IRS Act": House Lawmaker Introduces Bill To Ban IRS From Buying Ammunition.
• We're Witnessing A Stunning Breakdown Of Law & Order, And The Overwhelmed Police Seem Powerless To Stop It.
• Mike Wilson: This Slowdown Is Even Worse Than We Expected... Stocks Will Hit 3,000 Late This Year.
• Recession fear loop continues as Dollar and bonds surge while oil plummets - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• What Does A Catastrophic First Half Mean For The Rest Of The Year (Spoiler: Nothing Good).
• Crude Crashes, Yield Curve Inverts, Bonds & The Dollar Surge.

Newsmax: 

• Rep. Mullin: Mental Health, Not Gun Control, Essential.
  
• Ron Paul: Biden's Call to Control Gas Prices Could Bring Shortages.
• Nebraska Gov. Ricketts: Shootings Show Need For Mental Health Focus.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• “These Tariffs Have Brought Many Billions of Dollars to Our Country” – Biden Considers Removing Trump’s China Tariffs – Trump Responds
• Disney Funded GLSEN, and LGBTQ Foundation, Lauches Another Push To Infiltrate Schools
• BREAKING EXCLUSIVE: Information Uncovered Overnight Shows Highland Park Shooter, Bobby Crimo, Is Tied to Socialists, Progressives, Antifa and the Occult.
• Election Integrity Investigator Gregg Phillips Announces Investigative Team Has Identified Unique Devices on Interest in Location of TCF Center Election Night Ballot Dump.
• Police Were At Crimo’s Home Twice, One Time to Confiscate 16 Knives, a Dagger, and a Sword — He Was Still Able to Purchase 5 Firearms.
• BIDEN ECONOMY: Recession No Longer on the Way – IT’S HERE – US GDP Down Seven Months in a Row – October 2021 Was Last High.
• Karine Jean-Pierre Has No Answer For Why Joe Biden Left Voicemail For Son Hunter Wanting to Talk About Biden Family Business Dealings in China (VIDEO).
• Chinese City of 13 Million People Locks Down Due to 18 Covid Cases.
• BREAKING: Chicago News Channel WGN Obtains Picture of Highland Park Shooter in Drag Attempting to Evade Police.
• Why Did Local PDs and FBI Suppress Information that July 4th Killer Crimo Was Connected to Antifa, Progressives and the Occult?
• Developing: Police Admit Highland Park Shooter Was Wearing Women’s Clothing at Time of Attack.
• Expert: Reports of Two and Three-Year-Old Children Having Seizures — But Only in Vaccinated Children.

 The Epoch Times:  

• Republican Lawmakers Seek to Crack Down on Beijing’s ‘Trojan Horse’ Activities in US Universities  
• Forced Organ Harvesting of Falun Gong Adherents Should Be Focus in Human Rights Talks With China: Advocates.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 837,191 Reports(+2,129 from prior week) Through June 24th, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 146.75 +3.0 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 87.0 +1.75 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 49.39 -.01%.  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 4,040.0 +151.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 28.6 +.09%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +2.0%.

• S&P 500 futures +.22%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.38%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• None of note
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• The ISM Serivces Index for June is estimated to fall to 54.0 versus 55.9 in May.
• JOLTS Job Openings for May is estimated to fall to 10900K versus 11400K in April.
  

2:00 pm EST:

• FOMC June 15th Meeting Minutes.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Williams speaking, Eurozone retail sales reports, weekly US retail sales reports and the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.