Putting 贰 and 贰 together

A flurry of interesting things happened earlier this week, though none should be a surprise for anyone familiar with local real estate bear blogs, forums, and their commenters.

First up, the Bank of Canada announced rates will remain unchanged. From March:

the Bank has decided to maintain the target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. This leaves considerable monetary stimulus in place, consistent with achieving the 2 per cent inflation target in an environment of significant excess supply in Canada. Any further reduction in monetary policy stimulus would need to be carefully considered.

From May:

the Bank has decided to maintain the target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. To the extent that the expansion continues and the current material excess supply in the economy is gradually absorbed, some of the considerable monetary policy stimulus currently in place will be eventually withdrawn, consistent with achieving the 2 per cent inflation target. Such reduction would need to be carefully considered.

And they went out of their way to now state this:

The possibility of greater momentum in household borrowing and spending in Canada represents an upside risk to inflation.

OK so we know that high levels of borrowing based on inflated asset values is a problem, and was one of the major reasons why the Department of Finance announced changes to CMHC mortgage insurance policies implemented earlier this year. While this would in and of itself reduce the rate of borrowing it does not tell us whether or not the rate of borrowing is declining as expected. The Bank of Canada, after analysing the evidence, thinks more needs to be done.

Then we get this report from Colliers president and managing partner Greg Ashley:

There also seems to be more myths than facts about Mainland Chinese investing. This trend is certainly impacting single family housing values in Vancouver - West and Richmond. However, it is not the driving force behind all sales. For example, a number of the recent launches reported large numbers of Asian buyers. Yet a signiicant portion of these buyers are actually local residents not foreigners. That being said, foreign demand is having a positive impact on multi-family sales and the debate will continue.

While restricting foreign ownership may curtail this demand it may also have the unintended negative consequence of hindering the development of much needed new housing elsewhere in Vancouver. While debate is healthy, restricting foreign investment will not only afect our real estate market, development industry, housing supply and our economy it may also damage how we are viewed in the world. Personally, I’d rather live in a place that is envied and sought after by people all over the world: a place that is welcoming, accepting, tolerant, inclusive, multi cultural and beautiful.

Again with the foreign ownership restrictions! Who asked him anyways? So let's for argument's sake say that the Colliers data, and Bob Rennie's statements, on foreign ownership are correct and foreigners indeed are not buying much. Who is buying, exactly, if not foreigners? The answer, obviously, is locals, or at least those who have some semblance of local ties through their immigration.

So now we come to it. The Bank of Canada, for whatever reason, is worried about debt growth and we have some reasonable indication that foreign ownership is not significant. I will be so bold as to put two and two together and state that, as I have mentioned previously, Vancouver may have not read the memo from the Department of Finance that Canada's debt levels are too high.

I agree that restricting foreign ownership in and of itself is a bad idea, insofar as the data simply don't support foreigners wagging the tail of the dog. But there is an argument that tamping the perception of boundless future foreign and immigrant investment may go a long way to ground future price expectations, though this is by no means a sure thing. Nonetheless, in my view a more plausible explanation for "ludicrous" prices is that marginal local buyers have bought into the "myth" of boundless immigration and foreign investment supporting higher future valuations, and they are going into debt to do so.

Am I off base in thinking locals taking on debt is really what's going on?

The thorny issue of Vancouver's civic taxes

Intrepid civic reporter Frances Bula wrote an article on the City of Richmond's plan to reduce property taxes for certain commercial properties whose land prices have increased due to nearby residential rezoning and speculation.

Commercial property owners near Richmond’s Canada Line who got caught in a “hot zone” of frenetic land speculation will be getting a new tax break.

But the same tax break won’t be coming for Vancouver landowners caught in the same situation.

The province is proposing new legislation that will only allow Richmond – not other municipalities – to give full or partial exemptions of city taxes to dozens of businesses whose land values soared in a once-commercial area that Richmond has designated as a future downtown residential zone...

Councillor Raymond Louie said he doesn’t believe Vancouver needs to give the kind of tax relief that Richmond petitioned the provincial government for.

He said the city helps keep commercial taxes reasonable by averaging land values over three years and by discouraging speculation with its system of making developers give back the city some of their profits from land-value increases that are created through rezonings.

Richmond, and the City of Vancouver among others, face the problem of high price distortions due to land speculation. In Richmond this is becoming acute due to a flurry of commercial to residential and mixed-use rezoning application approvals, leading to once-safe commercial-only lots being bid up in anticipation of future rezoning to residential/mixed-use when presale condo developments are going for high prices.

According to the article, Vancouver has experienced similar issues around the new Canada Line stations where re-zoning applications have bid up low-rise commercial land values. But there is another problem "bubbling" under the surface...

Residential property prices in parts of the Vancouver area, notably in parts of Richmond, West Vancouver, and the west side of Vancouver, have been bid up significantly in the past 6 months. As the assessment values for 2011 approach (they typically use sales in mid-year months to ascertain assessment values for the purposes of tax allocation) there will be a stark increase for certain residents with a relatively flat increase for others. When setting the property tax rate in early 2012, the City, and its newly-elected council, will undoubtedly face awe-inspiring sticker shock outcries from those residents in areas where prices have skyrocketed.

Here are the latest benchmark year-over-year changes:

Vancouver West detached : 17.6%

Vancouver East detached : 8.2%

Vancouver West apartment: 2.9%

Vancouver East apartment: 3.6%

So how will the 2011 property tax assessment go down? Well people with detached properties in Dunbar, Kits, Marpole, and pretty much anywhere west of Ontario St. will face a stark increase in assessed values. Condo owners, by all accounts, have not experienced much in the way of increases. Owners of detached properties on the east side of the city will likely see mixed assessments. The long and short is that recent run-ups will produce stark winners and losers in the property tax division race, more so than past years.

Unless the City understands this impending distortion, there will be significant outcry by west side detached residents, and probably a few sad stories of long-time-resident grandmothers who will face significant pain to their bottom lines.* The City can, of course, allow dispensation for the recent pockets of price run-ups but all residents of Vancouver should understand that ameliorating such residents' ironic misfortune due to recent assessed fortunes will be at their expense.

You heard it here first.

*Edit: a commenter "Everyman" on Frances's blog reminded me of the property tax deferment program available to homeowners over the age of 55 and those with children under the age of 18. That will help ease the burden but most west-side denizens are likely to explicitly carry deferments on their books.