Recap of a Curve Game

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Went to an Altoona Curve game this evening. Let's just say that going with a 3-year old and a 3 month old, while a wonderful time, is not the best opportunity to scout our division rivals' AA team.

It was a blow-out by the third inning, though the Curve scored four in the 9th to bring the score 9-7. We left at the 7th inning stretch...kids getting cranky at their bedtime.

I saw two PA's by Pedro Alvarez. He took a called third strike and then popped out to short right. He was DHing tonight, so I didn't get to see him in the field.

Gorkys Hernandez grounded out the PA I clearly saw him, which was his first. I heard him hit an RBI triple, but I was in the bathroom stall helping my daughter go potty.

Ray Chang of WBC fame also had a great game. I saw him line a double to left field to drive in the Curve's first run. He apparently hit another at some point, but I missed it (maybe in the 9th?). Also made some slick plays in the field.

My 3-year old ate her first bag of Cracker Jack tonight. And she has demonstrably improved her bouncy house skills over the past year to being clearly above replacement level. The gymnastics lessons probably have helped with that.

Documented - Reds in first (briefly)

I know it's already old news after Milwaukee's win, but I always try to post standings when the Reds are at the top of the division:

Man, I looooove winning! Like, it's better than losing!

First win of the year. Votto's kind of a stud, isn't he? I probably need to get more on board with him than I have been around here.

Reds lose a low-scoring game at GABP

The start of a theme for this season? Hopefully we'll win as many as we lose.

13 walks in one game? Must have been freaking cold out there.

WBC Games, Round Two - Saturday

Didn't get to watch either of today's games kicking off the second round.

Venezuela(*) over Netherlands, 3-1

Venezuela is clearly the better team over a large number of games, but the Netherlands has shown that it can win a baseball game or two. They continue to play great defense (pitching + fielding = 2.68 ERA), thanks in part to another good start by Sidney "I'd really like a job" Ponson. Their bats just can't keep pace, though--the team has an OPS of 0.385, scoring 7 runs in 5 games! Which do you think is more indicative of their true talent? Team OPS or Team ERA?

Puerto Rico mercy rules USA, 11-1

Ouch. Jake Peavy clearly didn't have a good day, and Team USA couldn't get anything going against Javier Vazquez and company despite a ridiculously stacked lineup. By the time Matt Thornton started giving up doubles in the 7th, what was already a big hole became subject to the mercy rule.

Not quite the start the US was going for in round 2. Assuming they can beat the Netherlands tomorrow (and they should, of course), USA will have to beat either Puerto Rico or Venezuela on Tuesday to stay alive...and both of those teams beat the US the last time they met. Team USA absolutely has the talent to advance, but things are starting to look a little shaky. Heck, by this time tomorrow, our team could be on its way home!

On the personnel front, losing Pedroia is a significant loss...MVP's tend to be pretty good players. But replacing him with Brian Roberts is about as good as you could possibly do, at least given Chase Utley's situation.

My brackets after round 1

So the first round of the '09 WBC had its share of upsets, the Netherlands advancing to the second round obviously being the largest. How's my bracket holding up?

For each game played, I put a green box around it if I guessed the winner correctly (regardless of who the loser was), and a red box around it if I guessed wrong. And the results?
Not so good. :) That's 10 correct, 13 wrong. I can't count the first games in the Asian bracket because I posted this after those games started...but that's how I would have picked them, so maybe I can cheat and say I was 12-13? Oh, all right, nevermind.

Dominican is killing me, as I picked them to go all the way. And I was probably foolish to choose Canada over the USA in the first game of that bracket, but you gotta choose an upset now and then (right?) and I was hoping it would be Votto's team that did it.

What's amazing to me is that as bad as that went, the fact that the US lost to Venezuela in the seeding game of round 1 means that I actually have three games "correctly" forecasted to kick off round 2! That's the best I could possibly do given that two of the teams I thought would be in round two are no longer with us. I'm thinking we should up-weight round two games a little bit in the scoring. And given that I'm scoring against myself (i.e. no one else submitted a bracket, save Patriot), I don't have a problem with changing the rules mid-way through the tourney! :)

FWIW, my modified picks are that the Netherlands do not win again, and that the US will finish first in pool 2, with the runner up being Puerto Rico. Venezuela loses game 4 and will be out of the tourney. And I'm rooting for team USA the rest of the way, folks!

Update: Jeff Sackman loves the WBC. Bravo!

WBC Games - Monday & Tuesday

Korea(*) over Japan, 1-0

Aside from the fact that Korea won, it felt like Japan played the better game. I think that was because Korea ran themselves into so many outs, which made Japan's defense look extremely solid. But Japan certainly couldn't get anything going against former Reds farmhand Bong Jung Keon, nor his replacements, and it's hard to win a game when you don't score a run.

The Asian bracket played out perfectly in the first round. Hopefully that will help my bouy up the rest of my brackets, which are looking pretty dreadful right now.

Venezuela over Italy, I think.

I never forecasted that Italy would win a game, so I can't claim any sort of prediction on this game 4--though I did choose Venezuela to win the first match-up between these teams (which they did). Great to see Chris Denorfia again--I don't think I've seen him play since he was traded...though I wish I would have seen him against Canada, as he apparently had a heck of a game. Not digging the 'satche though.

...and, for some reason, my recording bugged out early. Last I saw, though, Venezuela was up handily over Italy with little sign of letting up.

WBC Games - Sunday

So I'm still a day behind. Maybe I'll catch up tomorrow. Again, I'm only talking about games I actually get to see. That means fewer and fewer games as the week goes on, as most games are only viewable on MLB Network.

Sunday's games were pretty lopsided affairs, though at least the USA game was close early.

Korea(*) over China, 14-0

Ray Chang, it was fun while it lasted. Korea shows some power. Whether they can ride that tune-up into a better showing against Japan in game 5 remains to be seen.

USA(*) over Venezuela 15-5

I'm cheating a little bit here, because I had Canada playing instead of the USA in this game. But I did pick USA to win their game against Venezuela in my bracket (game 4), so we'll go with that pick.

The managerial decision to bring in the AA-lefty to face Ianetta might be the strangest managerial decision thus far. And while there's no guarantee that it would work out any better with another option--Ianetta's a quality hitter--it's not a move you'd expect to see. I was also starting to get uncomfortable with the degree to which players were being substituted into the game on team USA. But they won, handily, so I won't complain much.

I have to say I just am incredibly happy that Dunn is getting this chance, and is exceling to the degree that he is. It's about time that the rest of baseball got to see what an awesome guy he is, and I think that's a big part of what's been on display in the dugout. That and the fact that he's a heck of a hitter--he's made like one out so far in two games, right? The dugout shot of Jimmy Rollins' reliving his interview that took place during Dunn's homer had me laughing out loud, and probably woke my wife up in the other room.

WBC Games - Saturday (cont'd)

USA over Canada(*)

It was the Joey Votto vs. Adam Dunn Show. Really good game, and great to see two of my favorite guys playing such a pivotal role. And the Dunn stuff in the 9th inning was priceless--I really miss having him on the team.

Overall, while it again screwed up my bracket (I picked the wrong upset), I was relieved to see team USA playing to win. The only substitution was Jimmy Rollins replacing Derek Jeter, and I don't see how you can consider that anything but an upgrade. It seemed like a very different atmosphere than what we saw from this team in 2006. More humble, and more hungry.

Puerto Rico(*) over Panama

As much as they love Bernie Williams, this was the Ivan Rodriguez show. He projects as a replacement-level hitter, which isn't a disaster for a catcher if he's solid defensively (is he?). It's not good either. Would he take a reserve job? Somehow, I doubt it.

WBC Games - Saturday (partial)

Thoughts on some of today's games. I watched as many as I could tonight, usually fast forwarding until there were runners in scoring position. I'll catch up with the remainder tomorrow--today is probably the largest number of games I get to see and record on Dish, so keeping up will be easier in the future. My picks from my bracket are indicated by an asterisk.

China(*) over Taiwan, 4-1

Ray Chang put on a show. Maybe he's not much of a prospect, but it was a neat story and made the losers' game worth watching. It's also a mild upset, and made me one for one since posting my bracket. :)

Japan(*) over Korea, 14-2

Lee's homer in the first inning off of Dice-K made it seem like it might be interesting. Then the second inning happened. After that, the game was mostly just about waiting for the mercy rule to kick in. I picked Korea to win their next match-up, and I hope I don't regret that.

Netherlands over Dominican Republic(*), 3-2

So at what point did you start to think that the Dominican Republic could lose this game? I think it was after they failed to score in the 7th that I started to realize it was a real possibility. Given that I picked the Dominican to win it all, this could potentially be a problem for my bracket. They'll be back...they just can't lose again.

Anyway, it wasn't the start I was hoping to see by Volquez, but it's not like they were slugging the ball all over the place either--infield hits, errors, a blockable wild pitch, etc. I also have to wonder, assuming the Dominican Republic stays in this, whether Reyes will play some 2B over Cano. I'd sure rather have Reyes and Ramirez over Cano and Ramirez or Cano and Reyes. And Reyes has played there before. I aso cannot fathom why ESPN insists on sending Gary Thorne to do games in Puerto Rico. It's Ta-VER-as, not Ta-VAR-ES. But his lack of understanding of the Spanish language is an old issue...

I pick Canada(*) over the USA

I chose Canada to win this game as a salute to their victory over the USA in the last WBC. And, of course, because they've got Joey Votto. It's about midnight, so it's time to go to bed. Currently, by my DVR, it's a tie game after the bottom of the 2nd. Please, no spoilers. :)

Rays win!

And my faith in the inherent goodness of baseball is restored.

Renegade BBWAA awards

Today, Pizza Cutter posted the first annual renegade BBWAA awards. He has a nice article discussing the results at The Hardball Times, and you can see the complete results here at "his" website.

These work much like the Fielding Bible awards. PC polled a bunch of statistically-friendly blogger types, compiled the results, and used that as the basis for the awards. Despite my almost complete lack of activity here the past several months, Pizza was kind enough to ask me to participate, and you can see my ballot here.

As you can see, while I seriously doubt that any of the other voters (there were 18 in all, myself included) used my total value rankings to make their decisions, the overall rankings of players conforms very closely to my rankings. For example, my AL MVP pick, Grady Sizemore of Cleveland, has generated several critical comments over the past month or so. But he came in tied for first with Minnesota's Joe Mauer (who I picked third). That's reassuring and gratifying--at the risk of sounding like a blowhard, I really do think that the data I post are the best of their kind that you can find on the internets.

There were only a handful of players who got a top-3 ranking in the Renegade awards who didn't also get at least a mention in my awards post. Here they are, along with what the total value stats say about them:

For NL Cy Young: Cole Hamels (60.2 RAR, 47.6 FIPRAR), voted to a tie for third.

Hamels was in a 3-way tie with Sabathia & Webb for third place in the votes. It's a very defensible choice: he ranked 3rd overall in the NL in RAR. But his FIP (3.56) wasn't quite as glorious as his ERA (3.09), and that knocked him down to "just" 7th place according to FIPRAR. I'd like to think that doesn't take anything away from him--he had a fabulous season, and he flat out overmatched the Brewers in the first playoff game.

For AL Rookie of the Year: Alexi Ramirez (17 RAR, -9 field, +2 position adjust = 10 total value), voted third.

Here's the only one that I have some actual issues with. Ramirez didn't net any first place votes (Evan Longoria was the unanimous winner), but he got two second-place votes and three third-place votes, ranking him third overall, though well behind Mike Aviles. Offensively, while Ramirez showed nice power, he also proved to be very averse to the walk, resulting in a below average OBP of 0.317 and a fairly unimpressive RAR of 17. And defensively, at least based on one year of data, he doesn't look particularly good either. I discarded my rookie rankings by accident after making my awards post, but 10 runs above replacement in total value puts him very far down on the rookie rankings according to my numbers. Maybe in the 10th to 15th range among AL rookies?

By contrast, mine was the only vote for Denard Span of Minnesota. Now, we're only talking about a third place vote here, but I think the guy deserves a bit more recognition. Oh well!

For the NL Rookie of the Year: Joey Votto (38 RAR, +10 field, -11 posadj = 37 total value), voted second.

I actually did mention Votto in my awards post, but by the numbers he was just barely outperformed by the strong rookie pitching tandem of Jurrjens and Kurota. Nevertheless, the guy had an outstanding season, showing a nice balance between on-base ability and power. It's true that he wasn't a world beater for a first basemen on offense, and I wonder if he'll get much better...but his plus defense for his position puts him in the second tier of first basemen this year, behind only Pujols, Teixeira, Berkman, and Youkilis, and essentially tied with Carlos Pena. I'm very happy to have him on my team moving forward.


Thanks again to Pizza Cutter for asking me to participate in his project!

Watching Griffey

I've had the chance to sit in front of a TV the last few nights and grade papers while the White Sox battled it out with the Tigers & the Twins. I somehow have a very hard time rooting for the Sox, at least when Griffey's not at the plate. But it sure was fun to see him celebrating after they made it into the playoffs tonight. And it's been nice to see Griffey able to contribute, be it today's perfect throw from the outfield, or the walk yesterday to load the bases for Ramirez.

I wonder what it's like for the guy. He's playing a much diminished role with them vs. what he's accustomed to in Cincinnati & Seattle, center field bizzaroness notwithstanding. And he's only been there two months now, so he's essentially a rent-a-player--not a role he's experienced before. I almost felt bad for him when he left the game for a pinch runner today after his double. But at the same time, that's probably how he should be used these days, as Anderson's game-halting catch so clearly demonstrated (Griffey wouldn't have made that play).

I'm sure it's not as sweet as when his Mariners made it to the playoffs back in the '90's. But I'm also sure it feels good to finally be going to a playoff series. I certainly will keep trying to root for them to go all the way.
-j

Went to a Curve game

As you've probably surmised from the minimal activity here on the blog, the new job has been pretty all-consuming since the semester started. The good news is that I'm having a great time with it. But the bad news, for the blog at least, is that by the time I get home and spend some time with my kid before she goes to bed, my brain is pretty much tapped out. Add to that a fair bit of work at home, and the result is that during my rare bits of free time I've been much more inclined to watch some TV or go shoot things with a sniper rifle than I have to sit down and write or do number crunching. The fact that the Reds stink doesn't help matters, of course.

I did, however, get to go to an Altoona Curve game last Sunday night. It was a really fantastic experience. Extremely attractive small ballpark with a lot of charm, nice people, and very family/kid friendly. We sat in the grandstand section for $7/ticket, and they were outstanding seats. We also spent a fair bit of time at the row of sheltered picnic tables below the grandstands, which still have a nice view of the action. And, of course, we had to go visit the "bouncy house" things down the right field foul line. I'll (probably) post more pictures later, but here's my daughter at the game:
She didn't catch a foul ball, but we like to think that she was close to getting one in the 6th inning.

A few other fun notes from the game:

• Miguel Perez is catching for the Curve, so that's apparently where he ended up this year. He was hitting 9th, but went 2 for 4 and made the defensive play of the night on a sliding catch of a pop fly.
• Aaron Harang's younger brother Daryl threw for the Fisher Cats in the 8th and struck out the only batter he faced. I guess they do have LOOGY's in AA.
• The Curve's starting pitcher was Dan Reichert, who threw 153 innings for the Royals in 2000 as a 23-year old. He's 32 now, though, didn't crack 87 mph on the stadium gun, and struggled badly with his command. Apparently this is his first year back pitching in the minor league system since 2005, but he was pitching in independent ball in 2007. You have to hand it to him for keeping at it...but the writing is obviously on the wall. The minor leagues are a place of hope and dreams, but they're also where those dreams finally die.
  

Finally, this guy absolutely scared the crap out of my kid.
First time he walked by she jolted so hard she sent a spoon full of my wife's Dippin' Dots flying. Is it bad that we found our daughter's terror the funniest part of the evening? Can't wait for her to meet Rosie Red...

Brief reflections on the game

Saw tonight's game. Yesterday was crazy-busy, so I missed Volquez's gem. And tomorrow is radio-only here in PA, so I won't see it either. But it was "good" to see the Reds again...been a long while.

Highlights:

• Jay Bruce jacking an 0-2 pitch over the wall.
• Affeldt going crazy-wild on Freddie Sanchez, and then getting him to fly out on a fastball down the middle.
  
• The Pittsburgh announcers, while not particularly exciting, were a refreshing change. They talked up their young players, and had a small featurette on improvements in hitting mechanic instruction over the past 30 years that I found interesting.
  
• The uniforms still look nice and stuff. PNC's a darn pretty park too.
• It was a quick game.
  

Lowlights:

• I kept score, which was interesting because it reinforced how few swings and misses Fogg induced on the evening. I counted two. Not strikeouts--swings and misses on any pitch. I guess 84 mph fastballs just don't cut it. Who knew?
  
• Encarnacion seeming to give up on that catchable flare over his head, and then Fogg not covering third. Maybe Keppinger called him off or something, but I'd sure like to see them pull a Braun and put Eddie in left field next year. In fairness, Edwin did make a helluva throw on Michaels' grounder in the 8th.
  
• I see the lineups every day when they're posted. But it really is something to see a game unfold with a starting lineup featuring Jolbert Cabrera, Andy Phillips, Ryan Hanigan, and Corey Patterson. The Pirates' 2-run lead felt freaking insurmountable, which is ridiculous.

Ah, well. As I said, it was nice to have a chance to see the team play again. One more series vs. the Pirates left, and hopefully we'll also see some nationally-televised games vs. the Cubs or something. I know I'll never really quit the Reds, even if I do start paying more attention to other teams.

Congratulations Ken Griffey Jr.

Photo by Getty Images

HitTrackerOnline.com reports that Griffey's 600th homer traveled 406 feet, and left the bat at 110.2 mph. Here is their graph:
Finally, here is the win probability plot for tonight's game.

Jay Bruce is the Opposite of Corey Patterson

Did he actually touch the ground, or did he just glide from base to base?

Tell me if you've heard this one before

The Reds were starting to play better. It looked like maybe, just maybe, they might turn the season around. And then, they went out to the west coast to play the Dodgers. And they got swept.

Three straight years.

I hate losing.

1990 World Series Game 3

Not sure if anyone is around, but XM Radio is playing the 1990 World Series Game 3 right now. I'm taking measurements on photographs of bug eyes tonight, so this is a nice treat.

Reds come back!

The Reds wrested victory from the jaws of defeat this afternoon by coming back in the bottom of the 10th inning for three runs against Eric Gagne and Salmon Torres. In doing so, they absolved Edwin Encarnacion and Jared Burton of rather sloppy performances in the top of the 10th that led to two Brewers runs. Yay!

Here's the win probability graph, courtesy of Fangraphs:
Eddie's throwing error cost the Reds 0.133 WPA. His offense (including his two homers) netted a total of 0.215 WPA. So a net positive day for Eddie, but not by a whole lot.

Paul Bako continues to have a fairytale-like April with the Reds, today leading position players with +0.420 win probability added with the stick. Someday, one has to think he'll return to Earth. But it's fun while it lasts!