Voters Don't Approve Of All Of Trump's Agenda

 

The charts above reflects the results of the Quinnipiac University Poll -- done between January 23rd and 27th of a nationwide sample of 1,019 registered voters, with a 3.1 point margin of error.

Voters Oppose Much Of Trump's Agenda

 The chart above reflects the results of the Economist / YouGov Poll -- done between January 26th and 28th of a nationwide sample of 1,376 registered voters, with a 3.3 point margin of error.

Poll Shows Texans Worried About Much In Their State

 

The charts above are from the Texas Voter Poll -- done between November 16th and 20th of a statewide sample of 1,001 Texas voters, with a 3.1 point margin of error.

Why Did Trump Close The Voting Gap In Most Groups?

 

Donald Trump actually won the popular vote in the 2024 election (although it was by less than 2%). The reason he was able to do this is because, as the charts above show, he was able to increase his percentage of the vote in groups that normally oppose him.

Nicholas Stephanopoulas said it showed that America is not as divided as we thought. Not true. Nearly half of all voters voted against Trump.

Others say it was because Democrats were unable to appeal to working class voters (who thought Trump would manage the economy better and bring down inflation). I don't buy this argument either.

It's hard to believe workers thought a billionaire who hates unions, opposes raising the minimum wage, and supports tax cuts for corporations and the rich would do anything to help the working class. 

And it's harder to believe that they thought Trump's one big economic idea - raising tariffs on imports - was going to bring down inflation. It doesn't take a genius to see that would actually raise prices on many goods, including groceries (where about half of fruits and vegetables are imported).

The truth is that Trump had no plan to help workers or bring down inflation, and while his cult may have thought he did, most voters are not that stupid.

So, why did they vote for Trump? 

I still believe it was a combination of racism and misogyny. The public, no matter what they might say, were simply not ready to vote for a woman - especially a Black and Asian woman. Americans like to believe we are a nation that values equality. Sadly, for many voters, that is just not true.

We still have a long way to go to make the American Dream a reality for all citizens. And we're not going to get any closer to that goal during the next four years.

Kamala Harris And Democrats Are Not To Blame For The Trump Victory

Like many millions of other Americans, I was shocked at Trump's victory in the recent election.

The voters knew that Trump was an inveterate liar, and voted for him anyway.

The voters knew Trump was a convicted criminal, and voted for him anyway.

The voters knew Trump had numerous criminal trials pending, and voted for him anyway.

The voters knew Trump was a racist, and voted for him anyway.

The voters knew Trump was a sex abuser, and voted for him anyway.

The voters knew Trump opposed reproductive freedom, and voted for him anyway.

The voters knew Trump played fast and loose with critical intelligence (including stealing and hiding top secret documents), and voted for him anyway.

Why did this happen? How could it have happened?

Some are trying to blame Kamala Harris. They say she was a bad candidate. Bullshit! The Democratic base loved her. She trashed Trump in their only debate. And she was a tireless campaigner who gave great campaign speeches.

Some are trying to blame President Biden - saying if he had dropped out earlier and allowed Democrats to have a competitive primary things would have been different. Nonsense! 

And some are trying to blame the Democratic Party. They say the party is broken and has abandoned workers. That's also ridiculous!

The party raised over a billion dollars from small donors, and had a massive get out the vote effort. And it has been true to workers. It is the Republicans who have blocked all efforts to help workers.

The reason Trump won can be summed up in one sentence. A majority of voters didn't want to vote for a woman (misogyny) who was Black and Asian (racism). 

I wish it wasn't true, but most voters were racists, misogynists, or both. That's a sad fact in a country that claims to believe in equality and opportunity for all. 

Presidential Voting In Texas

 

The election left no doubt that Texas, despite Democratic hopes, is still a bright red state. Donald Trump carried the state over Kamala Harris by a whopping 14 point margin. While I wish the outcome had been different, I can accept those results. Voters have the right to vote as they want.

But I am very disappointed in another statistics. Out of 18,623,931 registered voters in the state, only 59% bothered to cast a vote. About 41% of Texas voters couldn't be bothered to take a little time to vote!

Texas has always been a low voter turnout state. But that's no excuse. That 41% of non-voters should be ashamed of themselves!

Please Vote - It Matters!

Regular readers of this blog will know that I post a lot of polls. I like polls, and I believe they can give us a clue about what is happening in this country. 

But polls are not infallible. They can be wrong in a number of ways - and no one should take them as a good predictor of the future.

One thing polls can never do is determine the winners and losers of an election. Only voters can do that.

So, I urge all my readers to vote in this election - no matter who you support.

Many polls are predicting a very close election. While your vote always matters, if the polls are right it could matter even more in this election.

If your vote helps a candidate to win, that's great. If it doesn't, it still gives you an earned right to complain until the next election.

Please vote. It's your duty as a citizen of a democracy. 

Swing State Black Voters Are Solidly Behind Kamala Harris

The chart above reflects the results of the Howard University Poll -- done between October 2nd and 8th of 981 Black voters in the swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The margin of error is 3.2 points.

There has been some talk on cable news about how some Black voters are abandoning Kamala Harris. This poll shows that is probably not true. 

Jewish Voters In The Swing States Are Solidly Democratic

 

The charts above are from the Jewish Democratic Council of America Poll -- done between September 26th and October 2nd of 800 American Jews registered to vote in the swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. The margin of error is 3.5 points.

Most Voters Oppose Project 2025 (And Tie It To Trump)

 

The charts above are from the Navigator Poll -- done between September 12th and 16th of a nationwide sample of 1,003 registered voters, with a 3.1 point margin of error.

The Trump Voters In 2024 Really Are Deplorable!

In the 2016 campaign, Hillary Clinton called Trump supporters "deplorable". At that time, it was probably true of many of them, but not all. 

There were some who were just good Republicans and voted for their party. They believed that once elected Trump would grow into the job (as other presidents have done). Sadly, they were wrong.

But this is 2024. We know what Trump is like. We know his first term was disastrous. And anyone that has been paying attention to what he wants to do in a second term, has to realize that second term would be disastrous for the nation. And anyone still supporting him has to be deplorable.

Trump wants to deport 11 million immigrants, which would be disastrous for the economy. Anyone who supports that is deplorable.

Trump wants to use the Justice Department to get revenge on his political opponents and others he doesn't like. Anyone who supports that is deplorable.

Trump wants to destroy our democracy by becoming an authoritarian ruler. Anyone who supports that is deplorable.

Trump wants to keep states in charge of denying women reproductive rights. Anyone who supports that is deplorable.

Trump wants to give more tax cuts to billionaires. Anyone who supports that is deplorable.

Trump wants to keep the minimum wage as a poverty wage. Anyone who supports that is deplorable.

Trump wants to overturn the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) even though he has no plan tonsure most Americans. Anyone who supports that is deplorable.

Trump wants to levy a heavy tariff on goods coming from other nations, which would increase prices for American consumers and increase inflation. Anyone who supports that is deplorable.

The word "deplorable" may not have fit every person voting for Trump in 2016. But it is a very fitting description for Trump voters in 2024!

Hispanic Voters Prefer Harris Over Trump

 

The charts above are from a Pew Research Center survey that questioned 691 Hispanic registered voters between August 26th and September 2nd, with a 5.2 point margin of error.

These three charts are from the NBC News / Telemundo / CNBC Poll -- done between September 16th and 23rd of a nationwide sample of 1,000 Hispanic registered voters, with a 3.1 point margin of error.

New Poll Shows Blacks Are Solidly Behind Kamala Harris

 

The charts above are from the Washington Post / Ipsos Poll -- done between August 23rd and September 3rd of a nationwide sample of 924 Black registered voters, with a 3.4 point margin of error.

Sharp Rise In Voter Enthusiasm Is Driven By Democrats

 

The charts above are from the Gallup Poll -- done between August 1st and 20th of a nationwide sample of 932 registered voters, with a 4 point margin of error.

Note To Allred: Don't Neglect To Campaign In The Red Areas

The Harris/Walz campaign is doing something I like a lot. They are taking their campaign to the red areas of Georgia - and they plan to do the same thing in other states. That's smart. Even if they can't win those red areas, they can reduce Trump's margin in them (and that might allow them to win statewide).

I think Democrat Colin Allred should do the same thing in his race for the Senate in Texas.

Texas' largest 15 counties contain about 65% of the total votes in the state. And if the election was only in those 15 counties, Democrats would do very well. But Texas has 239 other counties, and most of them are bright red. While they only have about 35% of the vote, they normally give Republican a 30% to 40% vote margin. That huge margin gives the GOP the votes they need to overcome any deficit they might have in the large cities in the state - and it allows them to keep control of the state.

These red areas are mostly rural and they don't get a lot of visits (or attention) from politicians. Many just regard them as hopelessly owned by the Republican Party.

That's a mistake. There are a significant number of Democrats and Independents in those rural counties. While the Democrats can be counted on, the Independents should not be ignored. They could be courted to vote blue, but they need to be asked to do so - in person, not just in a TV ad. They need to be shown they are not discounted or forgotten. Right now, many of them stay home on Election Day because they don't believe anyone cares about them. That doesn't have to be!

Now you may be thinking that even if a Democrat campaigns in these areas they will still lose there. That may well be true. But a Democrat like Allred doesn't have to win in these areas. He just needs to cut into the GOP margin there - lowering it from 30% to 40% to about 15% to 20%. That might well be enough to stop the GOP from overcoming the Democratic advantage in urban areas - and give the Democrats a statewide win.

As someone who lived in a rural red county for many years, I believe the Democrats could help themselves there. But it can only be done by going there and asking for their votes. 

Raising the Democratic margin in blue areas must be combined with reducing the Republican majority in red areas if Democrats are to win a statewide race in Texas.

Walz Could Help Dems Reach Small Town Voters

The following post was written by Patrick Healy in The New York Times:

Republicans used to brag a lot about family values, but Donald Trump cooked that turkey when the G.O.P. traded moralizing for an immoral president.

In his wake, there hasn’t been much talk in national politics about ideals, principles and conscience — that is, until Wednesday night, when Tim Walz made an awfully persuasive case for Democrats as the party of old-fashioned, small-town and, yes, conservative values, stressing the theme of neighbors looking after neighbors and especially children as the measure of a country’s humanity.

“While other states were banning books from their schools, we were banning hunger in ours,” said Walz, the Democratic vice-presidential nominee, in one of several lines that drew effusive applause from the party’s convention hall in Chicago. 

“We respect our neighbors and the personal choices they make,” Walz said, invoking his support for abortion rights while also noting his respect for those who hold differing views. “And even if we wouldn’t make those same choices for ourselves, we’ve got a golden rule: Mind your own damn business.”

On one level, Walz delivered a classic running mate’s speech: He delved into his biography to introduce himself to the country (Nebraska-born, 24 in his high school class, close-knit community, then the National Guard and a career as a social studies teacher); his political beliefs (a center-left agenda focused on health care, education, gun control and a social safety net); and the case for the top of the ticket, Kamala Harris, and some shredding of Trump.

But Walz’s speech was really about something greater: a vision of a party and country that take pride in the military uniform, that show awareness for vulnerable families struggling with illness, poverty and debt, that prize the most essential workers (“never underestimate a public-school teacher” drew huge applause).

I’ve heard quite a few running mate speeches at conventions — John Edwards, Joe Biden, Sarah Palin, Mike Pence, Tim Kaine, Kamala Harris — but I’ve never heard one as values-driven and down-home as Walz’s. (Edwards’s was a little like this, but far more slick.)

Don’t get me wrong, it wasn’t all sugar and honey — he knocked Trump plenty, like saying “some folks just don’t understand what it takes to be a good neighbor.” Walz knows how to be an attack dog: Speaking of Project 2025, he drew on his football coaching days and said, “when someone takes the time to draw up a playbook, they’re going to use it.”

But the man has a way with a speech. “We’ll build a country where workers come first, health care and housing are human rights, and the government stays the hell out of your bedroom,” Walz said.

It was a peroration that would make any progressive proud, but it also felt grounded in core values — dignity, humanity, privacy — that a great many Americans of all parties care about.

Dems Are Having A Good Convention - Now The Work Begins

 

The Democratic Party is having a great convention - full of joy and hope. And there's good reason for that. They have a very good candidate in Kamala Harris. Meanwhile the Republicans have nominated a terrible candidate - a convicted felon that is disliked by most Americans. And all the polls are trending toward the Democratic candidate. But now the tough part begins.

Being joyous or hopeful doesn't win campaigns. The polls don't win campaigns. And having a poor opponents doesn't insure a campaign win. Those are all good thing, but only one thing wins a campaign - VOTES!

While Trump's fans are a minority of the voting population, they will definitely vote in the coming election - and if too many good people stay home on Election Day, they will win. 

Getting out the vote is now the most important thing Democrats must do. We need a massive turnout. A turnout that insures a victory large enough that even Trump and his acolytes can't claim the election was stolen. We must give Kamala Harris a margin of victory that no one can doubt.

But it doesn't stop there. Just electing Kamala Harris isn't enough. We must also give her a Democratic Congress. If the Republicans win control of either house in Congress, then they will block anything Harris tries to do. None of the country's problems will be solved.

The country faces many problems, but those problems can be solved with a Democratic Congress and a Democrat in the White House. The only way to accomplish that is to vote - and then make sure your friends, family, and neighbors vote. We need a massive turnout on Election Day.

Harris Is Now Viewed More Favorably Than Trump

 

The charts above are from the Navigator Poll -- done between August 1st and 4th of a nationwide sample of 1,000 registered voters, with a 3.1 point margin of error.

Voters View Harris More Favorability Than Trump

 

The charts above reflect the results of the Economist / YouGov Poll -- done between August 4th and 6th of a nationwide sample of 1,413 registered voters, with a 3 point margin of error.