If you look hard enough, you can find something incredibly ridiculous in the sports media just about everyday. You provided us with just that on June 9th when you typed An Open Letter to the City of Detroit. I’m not familiar with your other material so you might be an otherwise fine writer but this particular column was one of the worst I’ve read in any forum ever. If you’re going to pick a sports city to rip on, why not start with New York (or Chicago, Philadelphia, St. Louis, Los Angeles etc.)? What cities are Detroiters supposed to be envious of in the sports world? I have no idea how someone could get something so wrong. Only you can answer how you came to such an erroneous conclusion. In the meantime, I’ll quickly rundown what Detroit fans have to look forward to because there is plenty of it.
The Red Wings
This is a great place to start. You said, “Enjoy this Cup. It may be a rocky road for a while.” If by “a while” you mean “not a while” then you might be on to something. If you hadn’t noticed, the Wings will return every major contributor from their Cup-winning team next season. That means more Zetterberg, Datsyuk, Lidstrom and all of the other players who just finished waltzing through the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Maybe the idea of a repeat slipped your mind but the Wings will likely top 100 points for the 9th straight season and be the odds-on favorite to win the Cup again.
The Tigers
If you polled the GMs in baseball asking them which roster they would choose for the next ten years, who do you think they’d pick? If you don’t think the Tigers would be one of the top five teams mentioned, then you’re crazy. Curtis Granderson, Miguel Cabrera, and Justin Verlander are three of the brightest young stars in MLB. The Tigers will shed $50 million in payroll over the next two years. They are two years removed from going to the World Series with a roster nowhere near as talented as the one they have today. Do you really think Detroit baseball fans should envy the Yankees and their $207,000,000 payroll? They’re barely playing .500-baseball. In fact, the Yankees have spent $1.4 billion on payroll over the last eight years and have no World Series Titles to show for it. The Yankees and Mets have a combined $347 million payroll this year and have a combined 71-68 record. The Tigers are on the cusp of becoming one of the annual powers in MLB. Maybe you have a short-term memory issue but the Tigers lost 300 games from 2003-2005. Are we really supposed to be depressed about a team that has underperformed for 70 games? The season isn’t half over and you’re ready to throw the Tigers into the same underachieving-boat as the Yankees? Sorry Bauer, but by my calculations, the Tigers still have roughly $1 billion to go before they are that pathetic. To suggest that the future isn’t bright for the Tigers regardless of their poor start is to declare your ignorance. Also, I’d like to take this opportunity to manipulate short-term statistics to “prove” my point as you did. You said, “The Tigers are currently 24-35, losers of three straight and 3-7 in their last ten.” Well, the Tigers are currently 32-38, winners of six of seven, and 8-2 in their last ten. Also, the Tigers have been playing above .500 since April 8 (yes, that would be the second week of the season). Does that mean they’re going to win the World Series?
The Pistons
The Pistons are in line for a fire sale? If by “fire sale” you mean they’re “exploring trade options to improve the team”, then you’re correct. Do you really think Joe Dumars is going to cash-in his best players for nothing? An outsider like you might look at the fact that Joe D is looking to make a trade as a bad sign. For Detroit fans, it’s a godsend. Do you have any idea how frustrating it is to root for a team that may or may not show up on any given night? Detroit might not make the Eastern Conference Finals next season but if you don’t think the Pistons are in excellent shape for the future with a bounty of young talent and cap-room to burn, then you aren’t paying attention. Have you heard of Rodney Stuckey, Jason Maxiell and Amir Johnson? I guess we should wish the Pistons were more like the Knicks. Parlaying $90 million—$30 million over the salary cap mind you—into 23 wins is not easy to do. Although, I must give the Knicks credit for improving on their 2006-effort that saw them turn $130 million–$80 million over the cap—into 23 wins.
The Lions
Nobody in Detroit is going to spend more than 10 seconds defending the Lions on any front but you’d have to be awfully naïve not to see that Rod Marinelli is slowly but surely putting together a defense that might actually be able to stop people. That’s more than I can say for any other Lions team of my lifetime. The Lions are certainly in no worse shape now than they’ve been in a decade.
Michigan Football
Do you have any idea how excited people around here are about Rich Rodriguez? There is more excitement surrounding the Michigan football program right now than at any point in the last 20 years. I love how you focused on the fact that Michigan “lost” Pryor but failed to acknowledge that Rodriguez secured a top-ten recruiting class in just two months on the job and already has another one lined up for next year. Rodriguez has also secured commitments from two of the top dual-threat quarterbacks in the country for 2009. In fact, I think it’s safe to say that they are immediately the mostly highly-touted QB recruits Rodriguez has ever signed. So yeah, things are just absolutely dire in Ann Arbor because Rodriguez wasn’t able to sign the #1 recruit in the country. I guess that makes every other program in the country—with the exception of Ohio St.—a disappointment. There is this thing called “the spread”. Rodriguez nearly won a National Championship at West Virginia with it. Michigan > West Virginia.
Michigan St. Football
Heck, people are even excited about Michigan St. football. You do realize that Mark Dantonio coaches MSU now, right? You may have also wanted to mention in your letter that Michigan St. went to a bowl game for the first time in four years last season. Or, that MSU lost its six games (all against teams .500 or better) in ’07 by a grand total of 31 points. Rutgers—is that the team New Yorkers claim now days?—lost to Louisville by 30 points. If you don’t think Spartan-fans are excited about the future of the program, then you did absolutely no research before typing your letter.
I’m amazed that you were permitted to publish an opinion that reflects such a skewed view of reality. You probably couldn’t find two or three sports cities with more promise for the next 5-10 years than Detroit. Detroit has the best front-office personnel in sports. If you want to know what the future looks like, look no further than its coaches and GMs. The list is impressive. Ken Holland, Dave Dombrowski, Joe Dumars, Rich Rodriguez, Mark Dantonio, Tom Izzo, and John Beilein are all universally considered among the best at their respective positions. Do you honestly think that all of these established winners are just going to start losing at the same time? Other than the Lions, there isn’t a single major sports team in the area that people aren’t excited about. Your letter was an overreaction to a poor start by the Tigers. How you made the leap from that to “Detroit sports=doomed” is a mystery. Then again, you get paid for overreactions, right?
Showing posts with label Detroit Lions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Detroit Lions. Show all posts
Tuesday, June 17, 2008
Friday, May 02, 2008
Lions handled the draft poorly
The functionality of grading the NFL Draft before any of the draftees actually play a down is questionable at best. NFL scouts know a whole lot more about the stengths and weaknesses of the players in the draft than the average fan. It doesn’t make much sense for fans to blast picks based on how good they feel a particular player is when it is based on very limited information. I’m always willing to give the benefit of the doubt when a team makes a reasonable selection. Grading drafts is fun but mostly futile. However, I do think the ability to grade a draft based on how a team managed the draft with regards to trades and perceived value is a legitimate endeavor. For instance, I wouldn’t have knocked the Lions for taking Rashard Mendenhall even though I didn’t want them to. By most accounts, he will be a good NFL running back. The Lions had more pressing needs but Mendenhall was a mid-first round value. While I wouldn’t have agreed with the philosophy behind the pick, I wouldn’t have blasted the Lions for making the pick. Differences in philosophies are fine as long as there is value with the pick. So, I’m going to grade the Lions on how I feel they managed the draft based on what they did and what they could’ve done.
Some analysts have hammered the Lions first and/or second selections but cited the overall quality of the draft as a reason to give a “B” grade. However, the first round pick is, by far, the most important of the picks. The second pick is, by far, the second most important and so on. In fact, NFL GMs use a draft value sheet to gage the value of each pick. I will be using those point values to weigh each selection of Deroit's selections. Simple math will show that it is nearly impossible for the Lions to receive poor marks for the first two picks and still receive a “B” as the overall grade.
1). Round 1, Pick 17
Gosder Cherilus, OT, Boston College
Pick Point Value=950 points
The Lions made the third worst selection of the first-round in terms of value. By “value”, I mean where that player should have been selected. The Titans shocked the world by taking Chris Johnson with the 24th overall pick. Johnson was, by most accounts, a second-round projection at best. The Texans took Duane Brown from Va. Tech with the 26th pick. I can only guess that the run on offensive tackles just before their selection caused them to panic into taking Brown. Both the Titans and Texans took second-round values in the mid-20s of the first round. The Lions took a late first/early second-round value with the 17th overall pick. I think Cherilus will be a serviceable player. He might even end up being a pretty good player. However, the worst thing you can do in a draft is cash in your draft pick for lesser value. It just doesn’t make sense.
There are people who loved this pick because it wasn’t a wide receiver. There are people who will argue that Cherilus fits into Rod Marinelli’s game-plan. They will also argue that the Lions needed an OT. I agree with all of that. Cherilus is a good fit for the Lions. The Lions very much needed to address their OL deficiencies. That doesn’t make it OK to draft a player 15 picks too early. That’s just insane. Honestly—and this probably sounds overboard but I’m serious here—getting that low of a return on value for the #17 pick should put a GM’s job in danger. It’s silly to draft a player 15 picks too early.
The Lions should have traded out of the #17 pick. Jeff Otah was the next rated Offensive Tackle on virtually all draft boards. The Lions didn’t care for Otah. Instead of capitalizing on that knowledge and making the rest of the league pay, they simply stayed put. The Lions could’ve picked up an extra third-round pick or even a second round pick by trading down to the mid-20s. Millen and Marinelli were hell-bent on taking either Derrick Harvey or Jared May going into the draft. Their plans were ruined by the Patriots. The Pats were the only team in the NFL who would’ve taken Mayo before pick #15 which is where the Lions were initially slotted before trading down to #17. The Lions got screwed. However, they screwed themselves even worse by taking Cherilus. The players they wanted at #17 weren’t there.
A trade was the only correct decision at that point. Heck, there was a pretty damn good chance that Cherilus would’ve been there 10-12 picks later. The Lions could’ve picked up an extra second-rounder and still gotten Cherilus. Even if Cherilus was off the board, the Lions could’ve taken the best player available with the knowledge that they picked up an extra second-rounder. It’s not like they entered the draft wanting Cherilus with the first pick. They were already down to plan “C”. Plus, mid-to-late round offensive tackles are some of the most dicey prospects in the draft. Aaron Gibson (pick #27), Stockar McDougle (pick #20) and Jeff Backus (pick #18) are more than enough proof of that. Again, Cherilus may very well end up being a decent player. I’m not knocking his future. I’m knocking the Lions for turning the #17 pick into a mid-to-late 20s pick.
My grade for this pick isn’t based on how good Gosder Cherilus is or will be. The grade is how the Lions handled the #17 pick. In my opinion, they really couldn’t have handled it worse. If an F is not making a pick like the Vikings in 03, then the Lions deserve a D for their first round pick.
Grade: 65
2). Round 2, Pick 45
Jordon Dizon, LB, Colorado
Pick Point Value=450 points
A lot of people—and I guess I can be somewhat included in this group—wanted the Lions to draft Dan Connor in round two. The Lions needed to address the ILB position and Connor was one of the best in the draft. With Jared Mayo off the board, Connor would’ve been an excellent fit. Instead, the Lions took Jordan Dizon from Colorado. I’m not questioning Dizon’s future as a pro. He could end up being decent just like Cherilus. However, the Lions reached by taking Dizon with pick #45. I support Marinelli’s desire to build a tough team. I don’t support doing stupid things like deliberately losing value on picks. It is very likely that the Lions could’ve traded down in round one and round two--picked up an extra second and third round pick--and still drafted Cherilus and Dizon. That is just poor execution, in my opinion.
Grade: 65
3). Round 3, Pick 64
Kevin Smith, RB, UCF
Pick Point Value=270 points
I like this pick. I was a bit nervous coming into the draft that the Lions would select Rashard Mendenall in round one. Mendenhall may very well end up being a great back for the Steelers but there were a multitude of reasons the Lions shouldn’t have gone RB in round one. First and foremost, Kevin Jones was a first round running back in almost the exact same mold as Mendenhall. There are as many first round running back-busts as any other position. Second, the Lions needed to address their foundation. Third, the Denver Broncos have proven over and over again that quality backs can be found in round three or later. Smith was worth the risk. His 4.60 40 time is not ideal. In fact, it has got to be a cause for concern.
However, he ripped up I-A football last season. He came fewer than 100 yards shy of breaking Barry Sanders’s all-time single-season rushing record. There is no reason to think that Smith can’t be a productive back in the NFL. With Kevin Jones gone, running back was definitely a need coming into the draft. At the very least, he should buy the Lions some time in their pursuit for a franchise back.
Grade: 85
4). Round 3, Pick 87
Andre Fluellen, DT, Florida St.
Pick Point Value=155 points
This was another good value pick. Fluellen is the classic underperforming-but-talented defensive tackle. The Lions picked up Shaun Rogers in much the same way. Fluellen is adamant that he’ll be able to take his game to a new level in the NFL. He wasn’t healthy at Florida St. which surely contributed to the underachievement. He is a bit undersized but that hasn’t stopped Cory Redding from becoming a successful DT. Fluellen was worth a risk this deep into the draft and, with Shaun Rogers’s departure, DT certainly qualifies as a need.
Grade: 85
5). Round 3, Pick 92
Cliff Avril, DE/OLB, Purdue
Pick Point Value=132 points
The Lions coveted Florida’s Derrick Harvey in round one. I’m pretty pleased that he went to Jacksonville instead. I don’t think Harvey is a dominant pass-rusher. In fact, there is a pretty good chance that Avril will end up being just as effective as a pro. My only concern is that Avril reminds me a lot of Kalimba Edwards. It’s hard to find top-end defensive ends later in the draft. However, Avril was a late second/early third round projection. The Lions got him near the end of the third-round which makes this another good value pick. Plus, defensive end was a big need coming into the draft.
Grade: 85
6). Round 5, Pick 136
Kenneth Moore WR Wake Forest
Pick Point Value=38 points
It’s hard to rip fifth-round picks because there are reasons why these guys haven’t been picked yet. These picks are pretty much made for two reasons: 1). To fill roster spots and 2). To take chances on guys you think have been undervalued. Moore was selected for reason #1. The Lions needed a 4th wide-receiver and a return man. Hopefully he’ll develop into a receiving option but he was drafted on need.
Grade: 78
7). Round 5, Pick 146
Jerome Felton, FB, Furman
Pick Point Value=33 points
This pick was based on need as well. Felton was one of the top fullbacks available in the draft. The Lions needed a FB. So, there you have it.
Grade: 78
8). Round 7 Pick, 216
Landon Cohen, DT, Ohio
Pick Point Value=5 points
Cohen wasn’t even among the top 30 defensive tackles coming into the draft. There isn’t a whole lot of information about him. I’m not sure there’s much of a ceiling here. He is a candidate to move to end since he is undersized. He started 37 games in college so he has experience.
Grade: 78
9). Round 7, Pick 218
Caleb Campbell, S, Army
Pick Point Value=4.2
Chances are that Campbell won’t end up being very good. There is a reason he wasn’t picked until the 7th round. However, I love the pick. The Lions will probably try him at safety to start with. Though, he might be best utilized as a linebacker. I have no idea if he’ll be able to make the transition but he has size, speed and quickness. In my opinion, he was clearly worth the risk. His work ethic and toughness certainly won’t be an issue.
Grade: 90
Final Grade
Detroit’s nine draft picks had a total point value of 2037.2 points. The number of points those picks earned according to my grades is 1446.51. That adds ups to a 71% or a C-. The good news is that the respective ceilings of the third round picks could end up making this a decent draft at some point. The C- is for draft management. It was weak.
Some analysts have hammered the Lions first and/or second selections but cited the overall quality of the draft as a reason to give a “B” grade. However, the first round pick is, by far, the most important of the picks. The second pick is, by far, the second most important and so on. In fact, NFL GMs use a draft value sheet to gage the value of each pick. I will be using those point values to weigh each selection of Deroit's selections. Simple math will show that it is nearly impossible for the Lions to receive poor marks for the first two picks and still receive a “B” as the overall grade.
1). Round 1, Pick 17
Gosder Cherilus, OT, Boston College
Pick Point Value=950 points
The Lions made the third worst selection of the first-round in terms of value. By “value”, I mean where that player should have been selected. The Titans shocked the world by taking Chris Johnson with the 24th overall pick. Johnson was, by most accounts, a second-round projection at best. The Texans took Duane Brown from Va. Tech with the 26th pick. I can only guess that the run on offensive tackles just before their selection caused them to panic into taking Brown. Both the Titans and Texans took second-round values in the mid-20s of the first round. The Lions took a late first/early second-round value with the 17th overall pick. I think Cherilus will be a serviceable player. He might even end up being a pretty good player. However, the worst thing you can do in a draft is cash in your draft pick for lesser value. It just doesn’t make sense.
There are people who loved this pick because it wasn’t a wide receiver. There are people who will argue that Cherilus fits into Rod Marinelli’s game-plan. They will also argue that the Lions needed an OT. I agree with all of that. Cherilus is a good fit for the Lions. The Lions very much needed to address their OL deficiencies. That doesn’t make it OK to draft a player 15 picks too early. That’s just insane. Honestly—and this probably sounds overboard but I’m serious here—getting that low of a return on value for the #17 pick should put a GM’s job in danger. It’s silly to draft a player 15 picks too early.
The Lions should have traded out of the #17 pick. Jeff Otah was the next rated Offensive Tackle on virtually all draft boards. The Lions didn’t care for Otah. Instead of capitalizing on that knowledge and making the rest of the league pay, they simply stayed put. The Lions could’ve picked up an extra third-round pick or even a second round pick by trading down to the mid-20s. Millen and Marinelli were hell-bent on taking either Derrick Harvey or Jared May going into the draft. Their plans were ruined by the Patriots. The Pats were the only team in the NFL who would’ve taken Mayo before pick #15 which is where the Lions were initially slotted before trading down to #17. The Lions got screwed. However, they screwed themselves even worse by taking Cherilus. The players they wanted at #17 weren’t there.
A trade was the only correct decision at that point. Heck, there was a pretty damn good chance that Cherilus would’ve been there 10-12 picks later. The Lions could’ve picked up an extra second-rounder and still gotten Cherilus. Even if Cherilus was off the board, the Lions could’ve taken the best player available with the knowledge that they picked up an extra second-rounder. It’s not like they entered the draft wanting Cherilus with the first pick. They were already down to plan “C”. Plus, mid-to-late round offensive tackles are some of the most dicey prospects in the draft. Aaron Gibson (pick #27), Stockar McDougle (pick #20) and Jeff Backus (pick #18) are more than enough proof of that. Again, Cherilus may very well end up being a decent player. I’m not knocking his future. I’m knocking the Lions for turning the #17 pick into a mid-to-late 20s pick.
My grade for this pick isn’t based on how good Gosder Cherilus is or will be. The grade is how the Lions handled the #17 pick. In my opinion, they really couldn’t have handled it worse. If an F is not making a pick like the Vikings in 03, then the Lions deserve a D for their first round pick.
Grade: 65
2). Round 2, Pick 45
Jordon Dizon, LB, Colorado
Pick Point Value=450 points
A lot of people—and I guess I can be somewhat included in this group—wanted the Lions to draft Dan Connor in round two. The Lions needed to address the ILB position and Connor was one of the best in the draft. With Jared Mayo off the board, Connor would’ve been an excellent fit. Instead, the Lions took Jordan Dizon from Colorado. I’m not questioning Dizon’s future as a pro. He could end up being decent just like Cherilus. However, the Lions reached by taking Dizon with pick #45. I support Marinelli’s desire to build a tough team. I don’t support doing stupid things like deliberately losing value on picks. It is very likely that the Lions could’ve traded down in round one and round two--picked up an extra second and third round pick--and still drafted Cherilus and Dizon. That is just poor execution, in my opinion.
Grade: 65
3). Round 3, Pick 64
Kevin Smith, RB, UCF
Pick Point Value=270 points
I like this pick. I was a bit nervous coming into the draft that the Lions would select Rashard Mendenall in round one. Mendenhall may very well end up being a great back for the Steelers but there were a multitude of reasons the Lions shouldn’t have gone RB in round one. First and foremost, Kevin Jones was a first round running back in almost the exact same mold as Mendenhall. There are as many first round running back-busts as any other position. Second, the Lions needed to address their foundation. Third, the Denver Broncos have proven over and over again that quality backs can be found in round three or later. Smith was worth the risk. His 4.60 40 time is not ideal. In fact, it has got to be a cause for concern.
However, he ripped up I-A football last season. He came fewer than 100 yards shy of breaking Barry Sanders’s all-time single-season rushing record. There is no reason to think that Smith can’t be a productive back in the NFL. With Kevin Jones gone, running back was definitely a need coming into the draft. At the very least, he should buy the Lions some time in their pursuit for a franchise back.
Grade: 85
4). Round 3, Pick 87
Andre Fluellen, DT, Florida St.
Pick Point Value=155 points
This was another good value pick. Fluellen is the classic underperforming-but-talented defensive tackle. The Lions picked up Shaun Rogers in much the same way. Fluellen is adamant that he’ll be able to take his game to a new level in the NFL. He wasn’t healthy at Florida St. which surely contributed to the underachievement. He is a bit undersized but that hasn’t stopped Cory Redding from becoming a successful DT. Fluellen was worth a risk this deep into the draft and, with Shaun Rogers’s departure, DT certainly qualifies as a need.
Grade: 85
5). Round 3, Pick 92
Cliff Avril, DE/OLB, Purdue
Pick Point Value=132 points
The Lions coveted Florida’s Derrick Harvey in round one. I’m pretty pleased that he went to Jacksonville instead. I don’t think Harvey is a dominant pass-rusher. In fact, there is a pretty good chance that Avril will end up being just as effective as a pro. My only concern is that Avril reminds me a lot of Kalimba Edwards. It’s hard to find top-end defensive ends later in the draft. However, Avril was a late second/early third round projection. The Lions got him near the end of the third-round which makes this another good value pick. Plus, defensive end was a big need coming into the draft.
Grade: 85
6). Round 5, Pick 136
Kenneth Moore WR Wake Forest
Pick Point Value=38 points
It’s hard to rip fifth-round picks because there are reasons why these guys haven’t been picked yet. These picks are pretty much made for two reasons: 1). To fill roster spots and 2). To take chances on guys you think have been undervalued. Moore was selected for reason #1. The Lions needed a 4th wide-receiver and a return man. Hopefully he’ll develop into a receiving option but he was drafted on need.
Grade: 78
7). Round 5, Pick 146
Jerome Felton, FB, Furman
Pick Point Value=33 points
This pick was based on need as well. Felton was one of the top fullbacks available in the draft. The Lions needed a FB. So, there you have it.
Grade: 78
8). Round 7 Pick, 216
Landon Cohen, DT, Ohio
Pick Point Value=5 points
Cohen wasn’t even among the top 30 defensive tackles coming into the draft. There isn’t a whole lot of information about him. I’m not sure there’s much of a ceiling here. He is a candidate to move to end since he is undersized. He started 37 games in college so he has experience.
Grade: 78
9). Round 7, Pick 218
Caleb Campbell, S, Army
Pick Point Value=4.2
Chances are that Campbell won’t end up being very good. There is a reason he wasn’t picked until the 7th round. However, I love the pick. The Lions will probably try him at safety to start with. Though, he might be best utilized as a linebacker. I have no idea if he’ll be able to make the transition but he has size, speed and quickness. In my opinion, he was clearly worth the risk. His work ethic and toughness certainly won’t be an issue.
Grade: 90
Final Grade
Detroit’s nine draft picks had a total point value of 2037.2 points. The number of points those picks earned according to my grades is 1446.51. That adds ups to a 71% or a C-. The good news is that the respective ceilings of the third round picks could end up making this a decent draft at some point. The C- is for draft management. It was weak.
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
Army got it right
A little over two years ago, I wrote a post titled, “Go Army! Beat Someone!” The point of the post was to encourage the military academies to grant exceptions to graduates who had the opportunity to play football professionally. Although a number of benefits exist for such a change, the one that I was particularly advocating in that post was an improved football program. The once legendary athletic prowess of the academies (Army and Navy initially and Air Force much later) had turned to levels bordering embarrassing over the last few decades. Talented high school athletes no longer had any reason to even consider the academies as an option for school since it would mean a mandatory five-year commitment in the military and—even worse—five years of athletic prime down the drain. The academies have shown no interest in moving down to a lower division where they would be on a level playing field talent-wise with other schools that have recruiting handicaps. They have chosen to continue to attempt to compete with other D-1 schools that don’t require military commitments. The results are seasons like Army going 0-13 in 2003. Air Force and Navy have had some success but both programs have very defined ceilings and rely totally on deception to compete. Even when Navy was at its pinnacle over the last few years under Paul Johnson, losing to I-AA opponents was not only a possibility but a reality.
I respect the athletes at the academies immensely. The grueling academy-coursework is demanding enough as it is. Trying to fit that same coursework into college football preparation means very little free time, if any. Their lives are more stringent than most can imagine. That aside, it doesn’t make sense for the academies to pretend they’re football programs are good enough to compete with teams they’re not good enough to compete with. So, something about its culture needed to change. The options for change were to either drop down a division, or allow athletes to play professionally immediately upon graduation. I don’t think the first option is a realistic consideration at this point for pride and morale purposes. So, option #2 seemed like the best choice. Questions like—would it be fair to other cadets who don’t play a sport, and, would there be some sort or reserve commitment incurred?—would need to be answered but dealing with those issues would be better than keeping things the way they were.
Well, West Point finally adopted such a plan. The new “alternative service option program” allows academy graduates to play professionally in exchange for two concessions. First, the athlete must act as a recruiter for the military for the first two years of the program. Then, if a continued athletic career is an option, the athlete can buy out of the remaining three years of the initial commitment by agreeing to six years of reserve duty. I’m sure there are a multitude of reasons why West Point has implemented this plan but the primary principals involve making it easier to build a winning football program and to capitalize on the notoriety of West Point alums in the NFL for military recruiting gains. I don’t think this program will start to attract top 100 high school talent but there will surely be an increase in the caliber of player willing to attend West Point. If you can make the NFL, you are free to go. If you can’t, you’ll have a first-rate education and a fantastic career waiting for you. That is a much sexier recruiting pitch than, “come to West Point where you’ll never play in the NFL even if you get drafted.”
This policy looked like a winner on Draft Day when the Lions selected Army’s Caleb Campbell in the 7th round making him the first Army football player to take advantage of West Point’s new policy. Matt Millen was praised for the selection by more than a few editorials. However, it hasn’t been a winner in a number of forums, military and non-military alike. Resentment for “favoring athletes” is commonplace amongst the academy student-bodies. Football players are essentially sequestered from the rest of the student-population at the academies causing some mixed feelings about “special treatment” for athletes. So, it is no surprise that a number of alums feel burned by this policy. The policy is being viewed by many as “weaseling out of service to country.” It is true that West Point, Annapolis, and the Air Force Academy are not breeding grounds for football players. Those schools are meant to produce officers. That is the goal. However, it is also true that those schools should not be playing D-1 football. If they are going to continue to play D-1 football, then embarrassing seasons that result in zero wins need to stop. Those sorts of seasons are not good for anyone—especially an institution as proud and talented as West Point. So, before anyone starts bashing individuals—i.e. Caleb Campbell—for doing absolutely nothing wrong, it would be kosher to ask why the military academies continue to play D-1 football.
The number of idiots who have attacked Campbell’s patriotism over the last week is mind-numbing. You’ll find Campbell-bashing going on in military forums, local opinion columns, and in the comment-section of ESPN.com articles. One of the arguments for attacking both Campbell and the policy go something like, “it’s not fair that a football player at West Point gets an exemption but a talented artist at West Point does not”. What people are failing to realize—or admit rather—is that there is a huge difference between professional athletic aspirations and virtually every other career. Professional sports are age-sensitive professions. Most athletes are done by the age of 30. Requiring an officer to serve a five-year commitment before moving on to a professional athletic career means the average academy-graduate wouldn’t start a professional career until the age of 27. That service-time cuts an athletic career in half. Add on to that the fact that it’s nearly impossible to mimic the peak athletic condition that is required to play in the NFL for five years while at a military post and not having an exemption essentially eliminates an athletic career for anyone who could have had such a career. Artists and the like do not have such age constraints. How fair is that for the athletes? Honestly, arguments of this nature are among the classier that you’ll find. After that, it gets downright ridiculous.
The opposing viewpoint is riddled with ignorance and hypocrisy. Most people don’t know this—and if you have never been connected to a service academy there would be no reason for you to know this—but cadets are allowed to leave the military academies after two years without having to honor any military service or incurring any penalties. Why aren’t the people who walk away after two years not labeled “cowards trying to weasel their way out of military service” like Campbell has been? Why is it OK for Anthony Schlegel to play two years at Air Force and then transfer to Ohio St. and play professionally with no penalty, yet it’s not OK for a four-year academy-athlete to do the same? Do those two years really make that big of a difference between being patriotic and not patriotic?
There are all sorts or ridiculous arguments being bandied about like questioning the use of taxpayer money. Since cadets receive a $500,000 education for free in exchange for five-year military commitments, some say that taxpayer money is wasted if a cadet doesn’t end up paying back the money with a five-year commitment. What about the money spent on all of the cadets who leave after two years free and clear of any obligation? Why isn’t anyone leading a campaign against taxpayer money wasted by that policy? Also, who says those two years as a high-profile recruiter and six years in the reserves aren't worth the $500,000 education? The military says it is and I don’t think there is anyone who can effectively argue that it isn’t. Don't forget that Campbell will be required to buy out his final three years of active duty while still serving in the reserves.
Other arguments question the effectiveness of Campbell as a recruiter since he was exempted from his military-commitment as if he were so some sort of a draft-dodger. Again, Campbell has two years of an active-duty committment and a six year commitment as a reserve. Just because he isn't serving in Iraq (and trust me, reserve units--the same kind of unit that Campbell will have his six-year commitment in--were much more likely to have served in Iraq than not) doesn't diminish the fact that he is, in fact, a soldier. If not fighting in a war diminishes service to country, then every member of the armed forces in the 80s should be equally discredited since there were no major military conflicts. To minimize the effectiveness of Caleb Campbell as a recruiting tool to the military is to use highly unintelligible reasoning. Campbell can do so much more for the military as a recruiter than he could have ever done as one person on the battlefield. Campbell prepared for four long years at West Point to be a leader of men in battle. He didn’t slack. After four years of going to school and playing football, it became apparent that he might be good enough to play professionally. For him to be able to preach to similarly-minded high-schoolers that an athletic career and a military career can co-exist—that you’re either going to play in the NFL or get the best education in America by signing on at an academy—is a huge recruiting tool for the military. That’s just the effect that he’ll have on high school athletes considering the academies. His effect on the recruitment of enlisted soldiers will be substantial as well. Campbell is likely in the 99th percentile in a multitude of categories among soldiers. He is exactly the kind of person you want introducing the military to prospective recruits.
It's also disheartening to see the sheer number of idiots who speak as if Campbell hasn't dedicated his life to the military. Four years at a military academy are more intense than most could possibly imagine. It is four years of an in-your-face, military-centered, education. People who enter the military via an academy have already dedicated more of their lives to their country than the vast majority of the popluation--and that's before they are even recognized as official members of the U.S. Armed Forces. Campbell has already done more in the name of "duty" than a moron like Bill Simonson will ever do. Then there's the fact that Campbell will be an active-duty member in the military which is something that idiots like Simonson strategically neglect to mention. Campbell's calling as a soldier will be different--but no less important--than every other American soldier. To pretend it isn't is to be foolish.
There are certainly fairness issues that need to be addressed. For instance, I can envision a situation where NFL teams draft newly-commissioned officers over other qualified athletes as a “favor”. The positive praise that Matt Millen received for drafting Campbell in the 7th round will only encourage other NFL franchises to do the same. It’s good publicity. A 7th-round pick is often a throw-away pick anyway so why not make the best of it with a good-publicity pick? Millen’s son played with Campbell on the West Point football team. Millen claims that didn’t influence his decision to take Campbell but that isn’t believable in the slightest. The odds that it was purely a coincidence that Campbell would be drafted by the only franchise in the NFL with a GM whose son played with Campbell at West Point are slim at best. There is no question that Millen’s familiarity with Campbell via his son had at least a minimal impact on his decision to draft him. Now, Campbell was graded as a late-round draft pick. I don’t think the Lions did anything wrong by drafting him. In fact, I think it was a great move for all parties. However, it is easy to envision a similar situation where a player in Campbell’s position who wasn’t graded as a late-round pick might get drafted and thrown on special teams for five years to “save” a player from military service. I can even see an NFL franchise favoring an academy-alum for the wrong reasons subconsciously. Another "fairness" issue that needs to be addressed is the fact that Navy and Air Force graduates are not afforded the same policy.
There are two ways of looking at the benefits of this policy. The easiest and most obvious is that it benefits the football program. It makes it easier to attract more skilled athletes. However, I think the most important benefit is fairness. To deny an NFL-career because of inflexibility is obtuse. It doesn’t make sense. It’s simply not fair. This policy doesn’t reward as much as it prevents punishment. There is no reason that a cadet capable of being a professional athlete should be punished by having their professional aspirations destroyed. The opposing viewpoint is mostly fueled by ignorance and jealousy. The only acceptable opposing viewpoint is to argue that the academies should not recruit any athletes because its purpose is not to produce professional athletes rather it is to produce officers. That would mean a reduction to D-2 status and the marginalization of all academy-athletic programs. To be honest, that’s not a terrible argument. But, nobody ever argues for that. Finally, I’d like to welcome Caleb Campbell to Detroit and wish him a successful NFL career. He has earned the opportunity.
I want to dedicate this post to a friend who was recently killed in a car accident that also claimed the life of her two year old son. Carrie Pedersen was a Major in the Air Force and a graduate of the Air Force Academy. We were classmates in the same graduate program in Germany. This post reminded me of her.
I respect the athletes at the academies immensely. The grueling academy-coursework is demanding enough as it is. Trying to fit that same coursework into college football preparation means very little free time, if any. Their lives are more stringent than most can imagine. That aside, it doesn’t make sense for the academies to pretend they’re football programs are good enough to compete with teams they’re not good enough to compete with. So, something about its culture needed to change. The options for change were to either drop down a division, or allow athletes to play professionally immediately upon graduation. I don’t think the first option is a realistic consideration at this point for pride and morale purposes. So, option #2 seemed like the best choice. Questions like—would it be fair to other cadets who don’t play a sport, and, would there be some sort or reserve commitment incurred?—would need to be answered but dealing with those issues would be better than keeping things the way they were.
Well, West Point finally adopted such a plan. The new “alternative service option program” allows academy graduates to play professionally in exchange for two concessions. First, the athlete must act as a recruiter for the military for the first two years of the program. Then, if a continued athletic career is an option, the athlete can buy out of the remaining three years of the initial commitment by agreeing to six years of reserve duty. I’m sure there are a multitude of reasons why West Point has implemented this plan but the primary principals involve making it easier to build a winning football program and to capitalize on the notoriety of West Point alums in the NFL for military recruiting gains. I don’t think this program will start to attract top 100 high school talent but there will surely be an increase in the caliber of player willing to attend West Point. If you can make the NFL, you are free to go. If you can’t, you’ll have a first-rate education and a fantastic career waiting for you. That is a much sexier recruiting pitch than, “come to West Point where you’ll never play in the NFL even if you get drafted.”
This policy looked like a winner on Draft Day when the Lions selected Army’s Caleb Campbell in the 7th round making him the first Army football player to take advantage of West Point’s new policy. Matt Millen was praised for the selection by more than a few editorials. However, it hasn’t been a winner in a number of forums, military and non-military alike. Resentment for “favoring athletes” is commonplace amongst the academy student-bodies. Football players are essentially sequestered from the rest of the student-population at the academies causing some mixed feelings about “special treatment” for athletes. So, it is no surprise that a number of alums feel burned by this policy. The policy is being viewed by many as “weaseling out of service to country.” It is true that West Point, Annapolis, and the Air Force Academy are not breeding grounds for football players. Those schools are meant to produce officers. That is the goal. However, it is also true that those schools should not be playing D-1 football. If they are going to continue to play D-1 football, then embarrassing seasons that result in zero wins need to stop. Those sorts of seasons are not good for anyone—especially an institution as proud and talented as West Point. So, before anyone starts bashing individuals—i.e. Caleb Campbell—for doing absolutely nothing wrong, it would be kosher to ask why the military academies continue to play D-1 football.
The number of idiots who have attacked Campbell’s patriotism over the last week is mind-numbing. You’ll find Campbell-bashing going on in military forums, local opinion columns, and in the comment-section of ESPN.com articles. One of the arguments for attacking both Campbell and the policy go something like, “it’s not fair that a football player at West Point gets an exemption but a talented artist at West Point does not”. What people are failing to realize—or admit rather—is that there is a huge difference between professional athletic aspirations and virtually every other career. Professional sports are age-sensitive professions. Most athletes are done by the age of 30. Requiring an officer to serve a five-year commitment before moving on to a professional athletic career means the average academy-graduate wouldn’t start a professional career until the age of 27. That service-time cuts an athletic career in half. Add on to that the fact that it’s nearly impossible to mimic the peak athletic condition that is required to play in the NFL for five years while at a military post and not having an exemption essentially eliminates an athletic career for anyone who could have had such a career. Artists and the like do not have such age constraints. How fair is that for the athletes? Honestly, arguments of this nature are among the classier that you’ll find. After that, it gets downright ridiculous.
The opposing viewpoint is riddled with ignorance and hypocrisy. Most people don’t know this—and if you have never been connected to a service academy there would be no reason for you to know this—but cadets are allowed to leave the military academies after two years without having to honor any military service or incurring any penalties. Why aren’t the people who walk away after two years not labeled “cowards trying to weasel their way out of military service” like Campbell has been? Why is it OK for Anthony Schlegel to play two years at Air Force and then transfer to Ohio St. and play professionally with no penalty, yet it’s not OK for a four-year academy-athlete to do the same? Do those two years really make that big of a difference between being patriotic and not patriotic?
There are all sorts or ridiculous arguments being bandied about like questioning the use of taxpayer money. Since cadets receive a $500,000 education for free in exchange for five-year military commitments, some say that taxpayer money is wasted if a cadet doesn’t end up paying back the money with a five-year commitment. What about the money spent on all of the cadets who leave after two years free and clear of any obligation? Why isn’t anyone leading a campaign against taxpayer money wasted by that policy? Also, who says those two years as a high-profile recruiter and six years in the reserves aren't worth the $500,000 education? The military says it is and I don’t think there is anyone who can effectively argue that it isn’t. Don't forget that Campbell will be required to buy out his final three years of active duty while still serving in the reserves.
Other arguments question the effectiveness of Campbell as a recruiter since he was exempted from his military-commitment as if he were so some sort of a draft-dodger. Again, Campbell has two years of an active-duty committment and a six year commitment as a reserve. Just because he isn't serving in Iraq (and trust me, reserve units--the same kind of unit that Campbell will have his six-year commitment in--were much more likely to have served in Iraq than not) doesn't diminish the fact that he is, in fact, a soldier. If not fighting in a war diminishes service to country, then every member of the armed forces in the 80s should be equally discredited since there were no major military conflicts. To minimize the effectiveness of Caleb Campbell as a recruiting tool to the military is to use highly unintelligible reasoning. Campbell can do so much more for the military as a recruiter than he could have ever done as one person on the battlefield. Campbell prepared for four long years at West Point to be a leader of men in battle. He didn’t slack. After four years of going to school and playing football, it became apparent that he might be good enough to play professionally. For him to be able to preach to similarly-minded high-schoolers that an athletic career and a military career can co-exist—that you’re either going to play in the NFL or get the best education in America by signing on at an academy—is a huge recruiting tool for the military. That’s just the effect that he’ll have on high school athletes considering the academies. His effect on the recruitment of enlisted soldiers will be substantial as well. Campbell is likely in the 99th percentile in a multitude of categories among soldiers. He is exactly the kind of person you want introducing the military to prospective recruits.
It's also disheartening to see the sheer number of idiots who speak as if Campbell hasn't dedicated his life to the military. Four years at a military academy are more intense than most could possibly imagine. It is four years of an in-your-face, military-centered, education. People who enter the military via an academy have already dedicated more of their lives to their country than the vast majority of the popluation--and that's before they are even recognized as official members of the U.S. Armed Forces. Campbell has already done more in the name of "duty" than a moron like Bill Simonson will ever do. Then there's the fact that Campbell will be an active-duty member in the military which is something that idiots like Simonson strategically neglect to mention. Campbell's calling as a soldier will be different--but no less important--than every other American soldier. To pretend it isn't is to be foolish.
There are certainly fairness issues that need to be addressed. For instance, I can envision a situation where NFL teams draft newly-commissioned officers over other qualified athletes as a “favor”. The positive praise that Matt Millen received for drafting Campbell in the 7th round will only encourage other NFL franchises to do the same. It’s good publicity. A 7th-round pick is often a throw-away pick anyway so why not make the best of it with a good-publicity pick? Millen’s son played with Campbell on the West Point football team. Millen claims that didn’t influence his decision to take Campbell but that isn’t believable in the slightest. The odds that it was purely a coincidence that Campbell would be drafted by the only franchise in the NFL with a GM whose son played with Campbell at West Point are slim at best. There is no question that Millen’s familiarity with Campbell via his son had at least a minimal impact on his decision to draft him. Now, Campbell was graded as a late-round draft pick. I don’t think the Lions did anything wrong by drafting him. In fact, I think it was a great move for all parties. However, it is easy to envision a similar situation where a player in Campbell’s position who wasn’t graded as a late-round pick might get drafted and thrown on special teams for five years to “save” a player from military service. I can even see an NFL franchise favoring an academy-alum for the wrong reasons subconsciously. Another "fairness" issue that needs to be addressed is the fact that Navy and Air Force graduates are not afforded the same policy.
There are two ways of looking at the benefits of this policy. The easiest and most obvious is that it benefits the football program. It makes it easier to attract more skilled athletes. However, I think the most important benefit is fairness. To deny an NFL-career because of inflexibility is obtuse. It doesn’t make sense. It’s simply not fair. This policy doesn’t reward as much as it prevents punishment. There is no reason that a cadet capable of being a professional athlete should be punished by having their professional aspirations destroyed. The opposing viewpoint is mostly fueled by ignorance and jealousy. The only acceptable opposing viewpoint is to argue that the academies should not recruit any athletes because its purpose is not to produce professional athletes rather it is to produce officers. That would mean a reduction to D-2 status and the marginalization of all academy-athletic programs. To be honest, that’s not a terrible argument. But, nobody ever argues for that. Finally, I’d like to welcome Caleb Campbell to Detroit and wish him a successful NFL career. He has earned the opportunity.
I want to dedicate this post to a friend who was recently killed in a car accident that also claimed the life of her two year old son. Carrie Pedersen was a Major in the Air Force and a graduate of the Air Force Academy. We were classmates in the same graduate program in Germany. This post reminded me of her.
Friday, April 25, 2008
Wish-list for pick #15
Before I get started, I would like to do a little advertising for the Detroit Chapter of SABR’s Symposium Weekend that is happening this Saturday and Sunday. Details are here. The weekend includes a tour of Detroit’s historical baseball scene and a brunch featuring Willie Horton and Gates Brown.
Two years ago, I did a mock draft. Last year, I covered all of the “acceptable” scenarios. This year, I’m just going to throw out my wishlist keeping in mind that the Lions don’t have much say at pick #15. I also promise not to make any wide receiver jokes (unless this sentence counts as one) because I can’t handle another joke of that nature even if I’m the one making it. ESPN apparently hasn’t reached its limit yet.
First, let me say that this isn't a prediction-list. According to Tom Kowalski Rod Marinelli has already decided he is going defense with the first pick. In fact, he goes on to say that it will either be Derrick Harvey or Jerod Mayo. Mayo is guaranteed to be available at #15 so apparently it will be one or the other and nobody else. However, that won't stop me from wishing on a different outcome.
I’ll first rule out the positions that the Lions shouldn’t be looking at with their first pick. With Brian Kelly and Leigh Bodden in the fold, I think it’s safe to say the Lions need not look at cornerback in round one. Wide receiver is obviously out. QB is likely out with Matt Ryan gone (count me in the camp who doesn’t want Ryan anyway) and the rest of the QB’s not #15-worthy. Tight end is clearly out. That leaves the offensive and defensive lines, running back, and linebacker. I would prefer the Lions not take a running back. Rashard Mendenhall might end up being good but good running backs can come from all sorts of rounds and avenues. Mendenhall reminds me an awful lot of Kevin Jones and he didn’t amount to much even when he was healthy. The Lions need to finally address the foundation after years and years and years and…you get the idea…of neglect.
Defensive line would be nice but the Lions had one of the top defensive tackles (when he was able to breath) in the NFL for the last few years and that didn’t help much. So, I’m down with an offensive lineman. Kitna gets sacked a gazillion times per game and that needs to stop. Marinelli wants to run the ball and that won’t happen with the current cast of characters on the line. The team’s most pressing need since I’ve been alive—this includes pre-Barry, Barry, and post-Barry—has been the offensive line. That is my preferred position of choice for pick #15. After that, I’d go linebacker and then defensive end in that order. The top three tackles in the draft could be gone by pick #15 which means the Lions should strongly consider trading down especially since Marinelli has all but admitted that taking Jerod Mayo at #15 might be a reach. So, considering my preferences, here is my wish-list for pick #15…
1). Chris Williams OT Vanderbilt
2). Ryan Clady OT Boise St.
3). Jeff Otah OT Pittsburgh
4). Jerod Mayo MLB Tennessee (trade down)
5). Keith Rivers OLB USC
Two years ago, I did a mock draft. Last year, I covered all of the “acceptable” scenarios. This year, I’m just going to throw out my wishlist keeping in mind that the Lions don’t have much say at pick #15. I also promise not to make any wide receiver jokes (unless this sentence counts as one) because I can’t handle another joke of that nature even if I’m the one making it. ESPN apparently hasn’t reached its limit yet.
First, let me say that this isn't a prediction-list. According to Tom Kowalski Rod Marinelli has already decided he is going defense with the first pick. In fact, he goes on to say that it will either be Derrick Harvey or Jerod Mayo. Mayo is guaranteed to be available at #15 so apparently it will be one or the other and nobody else. However, that won't stop me from wishing on a different outcome.
I’ll first rule out the positions that the Lions shouldn’t be looking at with their first pick. With Brian Kelly and Leigh Bodden in the fold, I think it’s safe to say the Lions need not look at cornerback in round one. Wide receiver is obviously out. QB is likely out with Matt Ryan gone (count me in the camp who doesn’t want Ryan anyway) and the rest of the QB’s not #15-worthy. Tight end is clearly out. That leaves the offensive and defensive lines, running back, and linebacker. I would prefer the Lions not take a running back. Rashard Mendenhall might end up being good but good running backs can come from all sorts of rounds and avenues. Mendenhall reminds me an awful lot of Kevin Jones and he didn’t amount to much even when he was healthy. The Lions need to finally address the foundation after years and years and years and…you get the idea…of neglect.
Defensive line would be nice but the Lions had one of the top defensive tackles (when he was able to breath) in the NFL for the last few years and that didn’t help much. So, I’m down with an offensive lineman. Kitna gets sacked a gazillion times per game and that needs to stop. Marinelli wants to run the ball and that won’t happen with the current cast of characters on the line. The team’s most pressing need since I’ve been alive—this includes pre-Barry, Barry, and post-Barry—has been the offensive line. That is my preferred position of choice for pick #15. After that, I’d go linebacker and then defensive end in that order. The top three tackles in the draft could be gone by pick #15 which means the Lions should strongly consider trading down especially since Marinelli has all but admitted that taking Jerod Mayo at #15 might be a reach. So, considering my preferences, here is my wish-list for pick #15…
1). Chris Williams OT Vanderbilt
2). Ryan Clady OT Boise St.
3). Jeff Otah OT Pittsburgh
4). Jerod Mayo MLB Tennessee (trade down)
5). Keith Rivers OLB USC
Thursday, April 17, 2008
Lions dealt dream schedule
I’m writing this post in a make-believe world where people actually care about the Lions. I have never been less excited for an NFL Draft in my life. Thankfully, we all have the power to create “make-believe worlds” where that doesn't have to be true. The 2008 schedules were released this week and, thankfully, ESPN was there to bore everyone to death by hyping match-ups that won’t take place for seven months. Last season—well before the season started—I took a look at the 2007 schedule and concluded that the Lions couldn’t possibly win 10 games, make the playoffs, or even finish above .500. The schedule was simply too difficult. Jon Kitna looked at the same schedule and saw 10 wins. The moral of that story is: listen to me and don’t listen to Jon Kitna.
In the NFL, “the schedule” is everything for mediocre teams. A mediocre team with a difficult schedule has no chance of making the playoffs. However, a mediocre team with an easy schedule can make a run. That’s good news for Lions fans because the Lions ’08 schedule is quite possibly the easiest NFL schedule I have ever seen. I can’t remember the last time the Lions had what could be described as an easy schedule. It definitely hasn’t happened since the NFL instituted its new scheduling policy. I was blown away as I looked down the list. It featured beatable team after beatable team. Even the “good” teams aren’t that good. Granted, the Lions are terrible and will be underdogs in most games no matter how good the opponent is but this schedule is as accommodating as it gets.
The Lions had the good fortune of being paired up with the NFC South and the AFC South plus San Francisco and Washington. Obviously, the Lions will lose to Indianapolis but that game is on the road. The Lions also play Jacksonville but that game is at home and Jacksonville at home is much more winnable than Indy on the road. The Lions also get Tennessee, Tampa Bay, New Orleans, and Washington at home. That brings me to my next point. The Lions schedule isn’t just easy because there aren’t a ton of great teams on it. It’s easy because the Lions play all of their toughest opponents at home and their weakest opponents on the road. The home/away aspect of the schedule couldn’t be more perfect if the Lions designed it themselves.
Home/Away Breakdown
Away Games
@ Atlanta
@ San Francisco
@ Minnesota
@ Houston
@ Chicago
@ Carolina
@ Indy
@ Green Bay
The Lions play two road games against teams that were above .500 last year. One of those teams—Green Bay—will be playing with an unproven quarterback. The other is Indy which will be a loss no matter where the game is played so it’s a bonus that the Lions don’t have to waste that loss at home.
Home Games
Green Bay
Chicago
Washington
Jacksonville
Tampa Bay
Tennessee
Minnesota
New Orleans
Name a team on this list that the Lions will most definitely lose to. Every team on the list has major flaws. Washington, Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, and Tennessee don’t score points. They are decent teams—all made the playoffs in ’07—but they are all very beatable. New Orleans has no defense—unless Dan Morgan and Jonathan Vilma are set to do their best Sam Mills and Rickey Jackson impersonations. Minnesota will run for 200+ yards per game but—without a passing attack—they will continue to be beatable. Green Bay, again, will be unproven at the most important position on the field. There is no way another 14-2 season is in the cards for the Pack.
My point here isn’t that the Lions will win 10 games or even break .500. My point is that there is only one game on the schedule that the Lions most certainly won’t win. The rest are up for grabs. Every road game sans Indy is winnable. Every home game is winnable. Even though the Lions really only added Tampa’s scraps to the defense this year, I think those scraps are better than what the Lions originally had. I think the defense will be better. Hopefully, Millen and Marinelli have enough foresight to address either the defense (any position) or the offensive line. With Martz out of the picture, the Lions may actually be able to play ball control offensively and take advantage of Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson’s size and strength to move the chains and score in the red zone. Neither unit will be flashy—or great. But, I think both units can be effective. That sort of reminds me of Tampa Bay, Washington, and Tennessee all of which made the playoffs last year. The result? I think the Lions are going to shock the world in ’08 with an 8-8 season.
In the NFL, “the schedule” is everything for mediocre teams. A mediocre team with a difficult schedule has no chance of making the playoffs. However, a mediocre team with an easy schedule can make a run. That’s good news for Lions fans because the Lions ’08 schedule is quite possibly the easiest NFL schedule I have ever seen. I can’t remember the last time the Lions had what could be described as an easy schedule. It definitely hasn’t happened since the NFL instituted its new scheduling policy. I was blown away as I looked down the list. It featured beatable team after beatable team. Even the “good” teams aren’t that good. Granted, the Lions are terrible and will be underdogs in most games no matter how good the opponent is but this schedule is as accommodating as it gets.
The Lions had the good fortune of being paired up with the NFC South and the AFC South plus San Francisco and Washington. Obviously, the Lions will lose to Indianapolis but that game is on the road. The Lions also play Jacksonville but that game is at home and Jacksonville at home is much more winnable than Indy on the road. The Lions also get Tennessee, Tampa Bay, New Orleans, and Washington at home. That brings me to my next point. The Lions schedule isn’t just easy because there aren’t a ton of great teams on it. It’s easy because the Lions play all of their toughest opponents at home and their weakest opponents on the road. The home/away aspect of the schedule couldn’t be more perfect if the Lions designed it themselves.
Home/Away Breakdown
Away Games
@ Atlanta
@ San Francisco
@ Minnesota
@ Houston
@ Chicago
@ Carolina
@ Indy
@ Green Bay
The Lions play two road games against teams that were above .500 last year. One of those teams—Green Bay—will be playing with an unproven quarterback. The other is Indy which will be a loss no matter where the game is played so it’s a bonus that the Lions don’t have to waste that loss at home.
Home Games
Green Bay
Chicago
Washington
Jacksonville
Tampa Bay
Tennessee
Minnesota
New Orleans
Name a team on this list that the Lions will most definitely lose to. Every team on the list has major flaws. Washington, Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, and Tennessee don’t score points. They are decent teams—all made the playoffs in ’07—but they are all very beatable. New Orleans has no defense—unless Dan Morgan and Jonathan Vilma are set to do their best Sam Mills and Rickey Jackson impersonations. Minnesota will run for 200+ yards per game but—without a passing attack—they will continue to be beatable. Green Bay, again, will be unproven at the most important position on the field. There is no way another 14-2 season is in the cards for the Pack.
My point here isn’t that the Lions will win 10 games or even break .500. My point is that there is only one game on the schedule that the Lions most certainly won’t win. The rest are up for grabs. Every road game sans Indy is winnable. Every home game is winnable. Even though the Lions really only added Tampa’s scraps to the defense this year, I think those scraps are better than what the Lions originally had. I think the defense will be better. Hopefully, Millen and Marinelli have enough foresight to address either the defense (any position) or the offensive line. With Martz out of the picture, the Lions may actually be able to play ball control offensively and take advantage of Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson’s size and strength to move the chains and score in the red zone. Neither unit will be flashy—or great. But, I think both units can be effective. That sort of reminds me of Tampa Bay, Washington, and Tennessee all of which made the playoffs last year. The result? I think the Lions are going to shock the world in ’08 with an 8-8 season.
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Rippin' it up 9th district style
By now, many of you have probably heard that former Lions running back and Mosi Tatupa Award winner, Brock Olivo, has decided to run for Congress in his native Missouri. Olivo’s political debut came on a video that has made the rounds on YouTube where he has been mocked by seemingly every person in existence. My goal here is not to indict Olivo’s candidacy. Clearly, a 31-year old delving into politics for the first time is going to be “green.” Hardcore political people will make fun of anyone for anything if it makes their side—and thus themselves—look good. That is magnified by three million when the internet is involved. Olivo, no doubt, has a lot more to offer than what his 3-minute spiel might otherwise indicate. One of his main criticisms is that he was not ready to talk about his platform or admit to some of the issues that will be paramount to his campaign. That is a fair point but Olivo stated repeatedly that he was just getting started and would be willing to discuss his platform in due time. Give the guy a break!
Even the most savvy candidates are usually glorified puppets anyways so if you’re going to criticize Olivo for something, criticize him for not understanding that politics is largely about saying things that people want to hear whether you believe them or not. Or, you might criticize him for being forced to put “former member of the Detroit Lions” on his resume. Never mind the criticism that he’s taken thus far for being an appropriately inexperienced, 31-year old politician. Explaining his association with the Lions might be his biggest obstacle. Then again, Olivo picked the right state to make his political debut. Missouri elected a dead guy to the Senate in 2000…not that there’s anything wrong with that.
The Olivo story provides a nice segue into my primary reason for writing which is to respond to one of the least reasonable decisions since the Macaroni Grill got rid of its nachos (Feel free to leave a comment if you feel the same way). The Lions—the 31-81 over the last seven years Lions—have decided to raise ticket prices! Unbelievable. The season-ticket holders are partially to blame on this one. I cannot believe that the Lions still sell-out every game with such a blatant disregard for competency. I would not attend a Lions game for free. William Clay Ford is the worst owner in the history of professional sports and he fittingly has held on to the worst GM in the NFL despite going through three different coaching regimes. It would be astonishing if there wasn't a massive drop-off in season ticket-holders next year. This price increase has to be taken as a slap in the face to any person who has actually spent money on the Lions product. If this doesn’t drive people over the edge, then Ford might as well save money by getting in contact with all of the Alabama degenerates who will no doubt be looking for somewhere to play. He could pay them the league minimum and actually make even more of a profit on this 31-81-thing.
Honestly, what motivation could Ford possibly have in spending even half as much as the rest of the NFL when Lions fans keep spending their hard earned dollar no matter how terrible the team performs? Is it possible that this whole seven-year experience has just been a really long episode of “MTV’s Boiling Point” and Lions fans are about to cash-in on a measly $100? That’s really the only explanation I have for how ghastly the Lions have played and the subsequent indifference demonstrated by the fan-base. Ask any season ticket-holder how they feel about the Lions and they'll start rippin' into Ford and Millen while pulling out their checkbook to renew for next season. Stop giving them your money!
Even the most savvy candidates are usually glorified puppets anyways so if you’re going to criticize Olivo for something, criticize him for not understanding that politics is largely about saying things that people want to hear whether you believe them or not. Or, you might criticize him for being forced to put “former member of the Detroit Lions” on his resume. Never mind the criticism that he’s taken thus far for being an appropriately inexperienced, 31-year old politician. Explaining his association with the Lions might be his biggest obstacle. Then again, Olivo picked the right state to make his political debut. Missouri elected a dead guy to the Senate in 2000…not that there’s anything wrong with that.
The Olivo story provides a nice segue into my primary reason for writing which is to respond to one of the least reasonable decisions since the Macaroni Grill got rid of its nachos (Feel free to leave a comment if you feel the same way). The Lions—the 31-81 over the last seven years Lions—have decided to raise ticket prices! Unbelievable. The season-ticket holders are partially to blame on this one. I cannot believe that the Lions still sell-out every game with such a blatant disregard for competency. I would not attend a Lions game for free. William Clay Ford is the worst owner in the history of professional sports and he fittingly has held on to the worst GM in the NFL despite going through three different coaching regimes. It would be astonishing if there wasn't a massive drop-off in season ticket-holders next year. This price increase has to be taken as a slap in the face to any person who has actually spent money on the Lions product. If this doesn’t drive people over the edge, then Ford might as well save money by getting in contact with all of the Alabama degenerates who will no doubt be looking for somewhere to play. He could pay them the league minimum and actually make even more of a profit on this 31-81-thing.
Honestly, what motivation could Ford possibly have in spending even half as much as the rest of the NFL when Lions fans keep spending their hard earned dollar no matter how terrible the team performs? Is it possible that this whole seven-year experience has just been a really long episode of “MTV’s Boiling Point” and Lions fans are about to cash-in on a measly $100? That’s really the only explanation I have for how ghastly the Lions have played and the subsequent indifference demonstrated by the fan-base. Ask any season ticket-holder how they feel about the Lions and they'll start rippin' into Ford and Millen while pulling out their checkbook to renew for next season. Stop giving them your money!
Thursday, January 03, 2008
A three-for-one special
First and foremost, I hope everyone out there is off to a great start to the New Year. I don’t mind sounding cliché by saying, “Operation: lose gut” starts today. I’m sending out an open invitation to Shaun Rogers. If he wants in on my New Year’s resolution, he’s more than welcome. There are a number of things on my mind related to the Detroit sports scene. I can’t decide what I want to focus on right now so I’ll give you a three-for-one…
Carr Finally Opens up the Offense in Game 162
Michigan’s win over Florida in theCapital One Bowl Citrus Bowl was unexpected for a million reasons that have nothing to do with the talent of either team. In ESPN’s Bowl Mania, 91% of the 300,000 participants picked Florida to win with an insane amount of confidence. In some ways, Michigan’s win only reaffirms what many have felt for quite a long time: Michigan has underachieved too often because of poor coaching. I’m happy for Lloyd Carr and the seniors. This game will go down in Michigan history as one of the most meaningful. But, I can’t help but to ask where that game-plan has been before now. I also can’t help but to think that Carr only had the courage to install such a game-plan because it was his last game. It was almost as if he finally said, “What do we have to lose? Let’s go for it.”
Well, what did Michigan ever have to lose? Carr has always had the athletes to open things up. The option to pass-first and run-second has always been there. Instead, Carr tortured fans for a number of years with a stale game-plan that minimized Michigan’s talent advantage. For years, I’ve pined for Michigan to start off games in the two-minute type offense that has yielded so many scores during second-half comeback attempts. Michigan fans have begged for Carr to abandon the ineffective run-first mentality for a pass-first mentality that opens up the running game. Michigan fans have pleaded for Carr to take advantage of his annual wide receiver bounty by using the middle of the field and throwing vertical instead of the annoyingly ineffective horizontal patterns that have plagued his offensive game-plans. For all of those things to finally be implemented during his last game—just before the program was about to undergo a major facelift—is akin to Carr saying, “F U!” to every Michigan-fan.
Michigan showed everyone in the Citrus Bowl that the lofty expectations that have been placed on the program by fans and media have not been unreasonable. They were simply unattainable without the proper game-plan. Carr never could’ve opened up the offense for the long-term. It was only a one-time deal. That is why it was time for him to retire. Rich Rodriguez is going to do a lot of good things at Michigan. I don’t know what the extent of his success will be but I can assure you that he won’t wait until the last game of his career to give his team the best chance to win. I enjoyed the game for a multitude of reasons but it was bitter-sweet for just as many.
This Pistons-team Looks Familiar
The Pistons are playing at an unbelievable level right now. The weird thing is that despite the team being considerably better than it was last season, there hasn’t been a single ounce of improvement in the starting five. Those guys have been their consistently-good selves. The change in the team’s potency has been entirely due to the bench. I don’t have a problem admitting that I like watching the bench more than the starters. Joe Dumars deserves all of the credit in the world for making the Pistons championship contenders again without the aid of a significant trade. It was evident after last season that the Pistons weren’t good enough to win a championship in their current form. In fact, the future looked downright gloomy as the Pistons were bounced from the playoffs in embarrassing fashion for the second consecutive year. Joe D explored trade opportunities but didn’t find anything to his liking. He didn’t take .50 on the dollar for one of his stars when nothing was available which is certainly commendable.
Instead, he focused on improving the bench and he has done a miraculous job at doing so. Dumars started by drafting Rodney Stuckey and Arron Afflalo in the first round. Both players are playing big roles. Stuckey is a Dwyane Wade-type player in his ability to get by his defender. He has tremendous athleticism which allows him to get to the hole and finish or draw a foul. He can run the point despite spending his college career as a shooting guard. Stuckey will play a crucial role in the playoffs but he’ll be a bona fide starting combo guard (i.e. Wade) in the NBA within a few years. Afflalo came out of UCLA as a ready-made NBA player; it’s just that nobody knew it at the time. He is as fundamentally solid as a rookie can get. He knows exactly what he can and can’t do. He is an above-average defender who can shoot. Stuckey and Afflalo were godsends for the Pistons and provide hope for the future beyond Chauncey and Rip.
Jason Maxiell’s development continues to improve exponentially. He is one of the best rebounders in the league. He can shoot from 15’. He is as explosive around the rim as any player in the league. He is unquestionably my favorite player to watch. His dunk-backs are thunderous and demoralizing for the defense. He is already better and more effective than Ben Wallace ever was and that’s not meant to be a dis on Ben. I don’t think most people feel comfortable admitting that because Ben was such an icon in Detroit but Ben was also a “system” player who was one of the worst offensive players in the history of the league. Max does everything well. The Pistons don’t need him to start but if he did, I think it would be evident to everyone that he is a better all-around player. Amir Johnson is finally getting some minutes because the Pistons have handed out so many beat-downs over the last month. I think he will continue to improve. I’m not sure where his ceiling is but he should be a solid contributor off the bench as the season moves along.
The best bench player might just be Jarvis Hayes who Dumars quietly added for the bottom dollar price of $1.2 million just before the season started. Hayes is extremely versatile. He struggled with his shot after a good start to the season but he has bounced back big-time. At 6'8, he is extremely effective posting up smaller players. He can hit the “three” at an impressive rate (42%). Most people would be surprised to know that Hayes was a top ten pick just four years ago. He is probably what Dumars was hoping for when he signed Maurice Evans two years ago. Lindsey Hunter is still a defensive hound. Come playoff time, he’ll combine with Stuckey and Afflalo to give teams fits. When that second unit gets in there, it is like a pack of wild dogs. That sort of tenacity is what Hunter and Mike James provided the Pistons in 2004 on their way to the NBA title.
The bench was dynamite even before Dumars flipped Nazr Mohammed for Walter Herrmann and Primo Brezec. Neither player puts the Pistons over the top but both have ability. Herrmann is a dynamic player who mysteriously lost out on playing-time in Charlotte after averaging 18 points per game over the last 17 games of the 2006 season. Brezec is a big-body who seems to love diving for loose balls that have already gone out-of-bounds. Most importantly, Dumars was able to dump the remaining four years of Mohammed’s unfriendly salary. I didn’t think there was any way the Pistons could improve this season without moving one—if not more—of the starters for a superstar. Dumars proved me wrong by overhauling the bench. Now, the Pistons are playing the best basketball in the NBA while simultaneously playing their starters an average of three minutes less per game than last season.
An amazing side-note: the Pistons don’t have a single player making enough money to crack the top 30 salaries in the league. The Pistons also boast and underwhelming payroll of $65 million which is good for 17th in the league. One point that needs to be underscored is that while the moves Dumars has made have greatly enhanced the bench and freed up payroll obligations, they also give the Pistons a bevy of commodities if/when he wants to pull the trigger on a major trade. That won’t need to happen this season but Maxiell, Stuckey, Johnson, and Afflalo could be put together in some sort of combination to net a supreme player. Hopefully, the Pistons will never need to do that but it’s better to have the option just in case. Having highly sought after commodities is something new for the Pistons. I’m not sure how this season is going to end but I can say—with certainty—that the Pistons actually have a chance at the championship which is more than I can say for last year’s team. And as usual, we owe it all to Joe Dumars.
The “Genius” has Mercifully Left the Building
For every 50 things the Lions do wrong, they do one thing right. That one thing came in the form of firing Mike Martz. There has never existed a more un-genius genius in the history of geniuses. Martz single-handedly destroyed the Lions offense in 2007 by making it a no-trick pony. I’m not going to try to convince anyone that Jon Kitna is a great quarterback or that the Lions had anything short of a terrible offensive line. However, never running the football is idiotic regardless of personnel. Martz followed up his brilliant 2006 campaign in which he produced a 32:68 run/pass ratio with an almost equally inept 34:66 ratio in ’07. The Lions had the fewest rushing attempts in NFL history in 2006 and the 6th fewest in 2007. No team in history has run the ball less over a two-year stretch. As you might have guessed, that sort of ridiculous ratio combined with a brutal offensive line meant Lions quarterbacks were sacked 54 times which was one off the league-lead. To be fair, that was quite an improvement from the 63 sacks given up in 2006. So, yay for that! Despite the miraculous nine-sack improvement orchestrated by Martz, Kitna was battered all year. The offense was ambushed every gameas if because the defense knew what was coming. Martz’s ineptness was never more evident than it was at Arizona in a must-win game for the Lions. The Cardinals defense dominated the Lions from the first snap to the last because Martz allowed the Cardinals to rush the quarterback every play without consequence.
Part of the allure of throwing first is the idea that it will make it easier to run by keeping defenses honest. Martz didn’t care whether they were honest and evidently didn’t care how terribly predictable and inept he had made his offense. When word started to come down that Martz was going to be axed, I read more than a few complaints defending him by suggesting that he turned Kitna into a 4,000 yard-passer as if only a genius could do such a thing. What good is 4,000 yards anyways if it’s accompanied by an 80.7 QB rating? It would be incredibly difficult for Kitna not to throw 4,000 yards with a 32:68 run/pass ratio. Martz also effectively sidelined Calvin Johnson for the entire season which accomplished absolutely nothing. Martz was a plague. He certainly wasn’t the only thing that was wrong with the Lions. But, aside from William Clay Ford, Matt Millen (Here is a good one: Jeff Backus was the 5th highest paid player in the NFL in 2006; please don’t wait for the punch-line because that wasn’t a joke), and Shaun Rogers’ strict no-cardio workout regiment, he was the most obvious thing that was wrong. With Martz out of the picture, the Lions can now shed the whole “it takes a quarterback three years to learn the system” angle. That means a new starting quarterback in ’08 is a possibility.
The worst thing the Lions could do is trade a first and third-round pick for Derek Anderson (signing him as an RFA would also mean the Lions would have to give up a first and a third so that’s pretty much the price if the Lions want him this season) as suggested by Tom Kowalski who calls that a low-asking price. Huh? Randy Moss was traded for a 4th round pick. He is one of the greatest players in NFL history. Anderson has played one full-season. He had an 82.5 rating this year. Scott Mitchell had an 84.5 rating the year before the Lions were sold on him. I’m not bashing Anderson. He may have a bright future. However, a first and third has never been a “low asking price.” The Lions would be lucky to get more than a third-round pick for Shaun Rogers who is one of the most dominant defensive linemen in the league. Dre' Bly—one of the top corners in the league—netted the Lions two hot dogs and a fifth-round pick. Nobody gets a first and a third for anyone.
Plus, it’s time for everyone to stop acting as if the Browns have any leverage. They face the exact same situation that San Diego faced two years ago. The Chargers drafted Phillip Rivers when they already had Drew Brees. They couldn’t keep both and they eventually had to let Brees go for nothing. The Browns are in the same situation. Brady Quinn can’t sit on the bench forever making the kind of money that he makes. Anderson—having actually played—has more value of the two so the Browns will try to move him. If they can’t, they’ll lose him for nothing next season just like the Chargers lost Brees. There isn’t much leverage there. When teams don’t have leverage, they don’t get a first and third round pick for a first-year starting quarterback who was drafted in the 6th round just two years ago. Even the great Tom Brady—a 6th round pick—might not have netted that after his first year as a starter.
The Lions need a new signal-caller. This upcoming draft class is incredibly deep at quarterback. The Lions could have an opportunity to take Andre Woodson from Kentucky. He destroyed the SEC this season with 40 touchdowns and only 11 interceptions. Since the Lions are drafting at 15, they might have a shot at Woodson. They’ll also have the opportunity to trade up by dangling Rogers in front of teams in the top ten. Regardless of who is available, the Lions are much better off drafting a quarterback with their first round pick and keeping their third than they are in trading both picks for Derek Anderson. Then again, who cares?
Carr Finally Opens up the Offense in Game 162
Michigan’s win over Florida in the
Well, what did Michigan ever have to lose? Carr has always had the athletes to open things up. The option to pass-first and run-second has always been there. Instead, Carr tortured fans for a number of years with a stale game-plan that minimized Michigan’s talent advantage. For years, I’ve pined for Michigan to start off games in the two-minute type offense that has yielded so many scores during second-half comeback attempts. Michigan fans have begged for Carr to abandon the ineffective run-first mentality for a pass-first mentality that opens up the running game. Michigan fans have pleaded for Carr to take advantage of his annual wide receiver bounty by using the middle of the field and throwing vertical instead of the annoyingly ineffective horizontal patterns that have plagued his offensive game-plans. For all of those things to finally be implemented during his last game—just before the program was about to undergo a major facelift—is akin to Carr saying, “F U!” to every Michigan-fan.
Michigan showed everyone in the Citrus Bowl that the lofty expectations that have been placed on the program by fans and media have not been unreasonable. They were simply unattainable without the proper game-plan. Carr never could’ve opened up the offense for the long-term. It was only a one-time deal. That is why it was time for him to retire. Rich Rodriguez is going to do a lot of good things at Michigan. I don’t know what the extent of his success will be but I can assure you that he won’t wait until the last game of his career to give his team the best chance to win. I enjoyed the game for a multitude of reasons but it was bitter-sweet for just as many.
This Pistons-team Looks Familiar
The Pistons are playing at an unbelievable level right now. The weird thing is that despite the team being considerably better than it was last season, there hasn’t been a single ounce of improvement in the starting five. Those guys have been their consistently-good selves. The change in the team’s potency has been entirely due to the bench. I don’t have a problem admitting that I like watching the bench more than the starters. Joe Dumars deserves all of the credit in the world for making the Pistons championship contenders again without the aid of a significant trade. It was evident after last season that the Pistons weren’t good enough to win a championship in their current form. In fact, the future looked downright gloomy as the Pistons were bounced from the playoffs in embarrassing fashion for the second consecutive year. Joe D explored trade opportunities but didn’t find anything to his liking. He didn’t take .50 on the dollar for one of his stars when nothing was available which is certainly commendable.
Instead, he focused on improving the bench and he has done a miraculous job at doing so. Dumars started by drafting Rodney Stuckey and Arron Afflalo in the first round. Both players are playing big roles. Stuckey is a Dwyane Wade-type player in his ability to get by his defender. He has tremendous athleticism which allows him to get to the hole and finish or draw a foul. He can run the point despite spending his college career as a shooting guard. Stuckey will play a crucial role in the playoffs but he’ll be a bona fide starting combo guard (i.e. Wade) in the NBA within a few years. Afflalo came out of UCLA as a ready-made NBA player; it’s just that nobody knew it at the time. He is as fundamentally solid as a rookie can get. He knows exactly what he can and can’t do. He is an above-average defender who can shoot. Stuckey and Afflalo were godsends for the Pistons and provide hope for the future beyond Chauncey and Rip.
Jason Maxiell’s development continues to improve exponentially. He is one of the best rebounders in the league. He can shoot from 15’. He is as explosive around the rim as any player in the league. He is unquestionably my favorite player to watch. His dunk-backs are thunderous and demoralizing for the defense. He is already better and more effective than Ben Wallace ever was and that’s not meant to be a dis on Ben. I don’t think most people feel comfortable admitting that because Ben was such an icon in Detroit but Ben was also a “system” player who was one of the worst offensive players in the history of the league. Max does everything well. The Pistons don’t need him to start but if he did, I think it would be evident to everyone that he is a better all-around player. Amir Johnson is finally getting some minutes because the Pistons have handed out so many beat-downs over the last month. I think he will continue to improve. I’m not sure where his ceiling is but he should be a solid contributor off the bench as the season moves along.
The best bench player might just be Jarvis Hayes who Dumars quietly added for the bottom dollar price of $1.2 million just before the season started. Hayes is extremely versatile. He struggled with his shot after a good start to the season but he has bounced back big-time. At 6'8, he is extremely effective posting up smaller players. He can hit the “three” at an impressive rate (42%). Most people would be surprised to know that Hayes was a top ten pick just four years ago. He is probably what Dumars was hoping for when he signed Maurice Evans two years ago. Lindsey Hunter is still a defensive hound. Come playoff time, he’ll combine with Stuckey and Afflalo to give teams fits. When that second unit gets in there, it is like a pack of wild dogs. That sort of tenacity is what Hunter and Mike James provided the Pistons in 2004 on their way to the NBA title.
The bench was dynamite even before Dumars flipped Nazr Mohammed for Walter Herrmann and Primo Brezec. Neither player puts the Pistons over the top but both have ability. Herrmann is a dynamic player who mysteriously lost out on playing-time in Charlotte after averaging 18 points per game over the last 17 games of the 2006 season. Brezec is a big-body who seems to love diving for loose balls that have already gone out-of-bounds. Most importantly, Dumars was able to dump the remaining four years of Mohammed’s unfriendly salary. I didn’t think there was any way the Pistons could improve this season without moving one—if not more—of the starters for a superstar. Dumars proved me wrong by overhauling the bench. Now, the Pistons are playing the best basketball in the NBA while simultaneously playing their starters an average of three minutes less per game than last season.
An amazing side-note: the Pistons don’t have a single player making enough money to crack the top 30 salaries in the league. The Pistons also boast and underwhelming payroll of $65 million which is good for 17th in the league. One point that needs to be underscored is that while the moves Dumars has made have greatly enhanced the bench and freed up payroll obligations, they also give the Pistons a bevy of commodities if/when he wants to pull the trigger on a major trade. That won’t need to happen this season but Maxiell, Stuckey, Johnson, and Afflalo could be put together in some sort of combination to net a supreme player. Hopefully, the Pistons will never need to do that but it’s better to have the option just in case. Having highly sought after commodities is something new for the Pistons. I’m not sure how this season is going to end but I can say—with certainty—that the Pistons actually have a chance at the championship which is more than I can say for last year’s team. And as usual, we owe it all to Joe Dumars.
The “Genius” has Mercifully Left the Building
For every 50 things the Lions do wrong, they do one thing right. That one thing came in the form of firing Mike Martz. There has never existed a more un-genius genius in the history of geniuses. Martz single-handedly destroyed the Lions offense in 2007 by making it a no-trick pony. I’m not going to try to convince anyone that Jon Kitna is a great quarterback or that the Lions had anything short of a terrible offensive line. However, never running the football is idiotic regardless of personnel. Martz followed up his brilliant 2006 campaign in which he produced a 32:68 run/pass ratio with an almost equally inept 34:66 ratio in ’07. The Lions had the fewest rushing attempts in NFL history in 2006 and the 6th fewest in 2007. No team in history has run the ball less over a two-year stretch. As you might have guessed, that sort of ridiculous ratio combined with a brutal offensive line meant Lions quarterbacks were sacked 54 times which was one off the league-lead. To be fair, that was quite an improvement from the 63 sacks given up in 2006. So, yay for that! Despite the miraculous nine-sack improvement orchestrated by Martz, Kitna was battered all year. The offense was ambushed every game
Part of the allure of throwing first is the idea that it will make it easier to run by keeping defenses honest. Martz didn’t care whether they were honest and evidently didn’t care how terribly predictable and inept he had made his offense. When word started to come down that Martz was going to be axed, I read more than a few complaints defending him by suggesting that he turned Kitna into a 4,000 yard-passer as if only a genius could do such a thing. What good is 4,000 yards anyways if it’s accompanied by an 80.7 QB rating? It would be incredibly difficult for Kitna not to throw 4,000 yards with a 32:68 run/pass ratio. Martz also effectively sidelined Calvin Johnson for the entire season which accomplished absolutely nothing. Martz was a plague. He certainly wasn’t the only thing that was wrong with the Lions. But, aside from William Clay Ford, Matt Millen (Here is a good one: Jeff Backus was the 5th highest paid player in the NFL in 2006; please don’t wait for the punch-line because that wasn’t a joke), and Shaun Rogers’ strict no-cardio workout regiment, he was the most obvious thing that was wrong. With Martz out of the picture, the Lions can now shed the whole “it takes a quarterback three years to learn the system” angle. That means a new starting quarterback in ’08 is a possibility.
The worst thing the Lions could do is trade a first and third-round pick for Derek Anderson (signing him as an RFA would also mean the Lions would have to give up a first and a third so that’s pretty much the price if the Lions want him this season) as suggested by Tom Kowalski who calls that a low-asking price. Huh? Randy Moss was traded for a 4th round pick. He is one of the greatest players in NFL history. Anderson has played one full-season. He had an 82.5 rating this year. Scott Mitchell had an 84.5 rating the year before the Lions were sold on him. I’m not bashing Anderson. He may have a bright future. However, a first and third has never been a “low asking price.” The Lions would be lucky to get more than a third-round pick for Shaun Rogers who is one of the most dominant defensive linemen in the league. Dre' Bly—one of the top corners in the league—netted the Lions two hot dogs and a fifth-round pick. Nobody gets a first and a third for anyone.
Plus, it’s time for everyone to stop acting as if the Browns have any leverage. They face the exact same situation that San Diego faced two years ago. The Chargers drafted Phillip Rivers when they already had Drew Brees. They couldn’t keep both and they eventually had to let Brees go for nothing. The Browns are in the same situation. Brady Quinn can’t sit on the bench forever making the kind of money that he makes. Anderson—having actually played—has more value of the two so the Browns will try to move him. If they can’t, they’ll lose him for nothing next season just like the Chargers lost Brees. There isn’t much leverage there. When teams don’t have leverage, they don’t get a first and third round pick for a first-year starting quarterback who was drafted in the 6th round just two years ago. Even the great Tom Brady—a 6th round pick—might not have netted that after his first year as a starter.
The Lions need a new signal-caller. This upcoming draft class is incredibly deep at quarterback. The Lions could have an opportunity to take Andre Woodson from Kentucky. He destroyed the SEC this season with 40 touchdowns and only 11 interceptions. Since the Lions are drafting at 15, they might have a shot at Woodson. They’ll also have the opportunity to trade up by dangling Rogers in front of teams in the top ten. Regardless of who is available, the Lions are much better off drafting a quarterback with their first round pick and keeping their third than they are in trading both picks for Derek Anderson. Then again, who cares?
Thursday, November 08, 2007
The Lions are finally not terrible
The fact that the Lions are—at the very least—a decent team is awesome. Since Barry Sanders tore my still-beating heart from my body and ate it Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom-style retired, the NFL has been a letdown every season. When your team sets the record for “worst five-year stretch” in NFL history among other notable achievements in futility, everything else in professional football ceases to be enjoyable. That is one of the first things that I noticed when the Lions started winning this season. Obviously, winning makes fans happier which in turn makes everything more enjoyable including the simple act of breathing and eating doughnuts. However, the fact that other games actually matter to the Lions now changes everything. Instead of watching a Packers-Redskins game and wondering why the NFL even exists, I can actually view the match-up as a game featuring possible playoff opponents. Whereas in most seasons, a Redskins game would put me to sleep, the fact that they are only one game behind Detroit with the tiebreaker advantage makes their games important. The Lions being competitive again allows fans to take part in the whole NFL experience again. The last Saturday in April (the NFL Draft) used to be the playoffs, Super Bowl, and off-season wrapped up in one for Lions fans. I’m used to focusing on the draft starting in week three of the regular season. Since #20 left (or since Millen arrived if you prefer), every game after week four or five had the same significance whether it was against a good or a bad team: none. The presence of the Giants, Packers (2), Chargers and Cowboys on the remaining schedule used to just be another way of saying, “0-5.” Now, it means an opportunity for the Lions to play their way into the playoffs.
As happy as I am that the Lions are winning, I’m equally pleased with the way it has happened and the manner in which the success has been treated and accepted by the fans, media, and players. I read a quote the other day from a Lions player—I can’t remember who said it or where it was printed so please don’t hurt me Chris McCosky—that expressed satisfaction at the idea that the Lions were finally giving their fans something to cheer about. Lions fans have been pissed off for six years. They had a right to be. The fact that the current players acknowledge that right and appreciate what the fans have been through makes it easy to support this bunch.
The media has also treated the Lions success the right way. The players have been annoyed—and I can see their point—with the relative skepticism shown by the local media. I would be disappointed if the media wasn’t skeptical. Six years of misery and failure doesn’t get thrown out the window because of one good eight-game stretch or even one good season. Millen isn’t all of a sudden a great GM. The players have not earned the right to never be criticized or second-guessed again. The Lions are winning right now. If that keeps happening this season and next, then perceptions can start to change. Only then can Millen be viewed as a good GM or as having done a good job. Only then can the players be given the benefit of the doubt.
The Lions have matured as the season has progressed. That maturation has happened on the field and on the sidelines. The team has started to rely on the running game which has yielded a more balanced and effective attack. The defense is putting pressure on the quarterback which is the hallmark of a good defense. Granted, the Lions have not beaten a slew of great teams. In fact, I’m not sure that the Lions haven’t even beaten a single “good” team. However, good teams are supposed to beat the bad teams. The Lions have done that. Clearly, the debacles at Philly (L 56-21) and at Washington (L 34-3) are worrisome. This team still has to play its best game to even have a chance against good teams. I presume, though, that at least half of the teams in the NFL would gladly change places with the Lions. This isn’t a talent-less team like the last Lions team to finish above .500 (2000). This team has talent. This team has a very good and sometimes dominating defense. This team has playmakers all over the field. One could look at the current version of the Lions and make a pretty good comparison to the ’05 Tigers. People who follow baseball closely knew the Tigers were heading for an explosion in the not-so-distant future. I get the same feeling with this team. Obviously, there are positions that need to be improved and personnel obstacles that will need to be overcome. It’ll be interesting to see what happens to the offense if/when Mike Martz leaves for another tour as a head coach. It takes 2-3 years to install his offense. The Lions are still getting used to everything his offense entails. If he leaves, it’s possible that the offense will undergo a change in philosophy which will likely cause some stagnation. Jon Kitna is much better than anyone thought he’d be. He clearly has a grasp of the offense. He has a tremendous amount of confidence. However, he probably has a shelf-life of two or three years. When he moves on, the Lions will need to bring in a capable replacement or everything could go south in a hurry. Fortunately, those are problems that all teams face—even good ones.
This team is young and talented. It appears to have a man with a winning vision at the helm (Marinelli). I don’t think this version of the Lions is going to resemble the “win one year and lose the next” version that we had to endure in the 90’s. This might just be the first consistently good Lions franchise in most of our lifetimes. It’ll be interesting to see if all of this comes to fruition because Millen will need to get the credit. Nobody has ever been more publicly maligned than Millen—and deservedly so. However, if he can do something that nobody has ever been able to do since the NFL/AFL merger—turn the Lions into a winning franchise—then he will be a hero in Detroit. And really, Millen’s failure thus far has been no different than Ilitch’s decade-long failure as the Tigers’ owner. The only difference is that Ilitch had the Red Wings to mask the failures of the Tigers. Plus, doing a terrible job does not preordain someone to doing a terrible job forever. Bill Belichick is a perfect example of that.
The remaining schedule is not easy. I can say—with a decent amount of confidence—that the Lions are going to beat my best-case scenario prediction before the season (which was seven wins). I have never been happier to be wrong. However, the Lions have a lot of work to do if they are going to even sniff the 10-win mark as predicted by Kitna. I’m starting to think that the Lions will have to do just that to make the playoffs. The way it looks now, there is one playoff spot open in the NFC. The Packers, Cowboys, Saints, and Seahawks will probably end up being the Division winners. The Giants appear to be on their way to one of the Wild Card spots. That leaves the Lions, Redskins, Bucs, and Panthers to fight for the last Wild Card spot. The Lions hold the tiebreaker over the Bucs and the Redskins hold the tiebreaker over the Lions. Hopefully, the Bucs can beat the ‘Skins on November 25 which would give the Lions a reprieve if all three teams finish with the same record. The Lions have—by far—the most difficult schedule of the group. The Bucs have—by far—the easiest schedule. The Bucs get Atlanta (2), Houston, and San Francisco. Even their more difficult opponents aren’t the greatest in Carolina, New Orleans and Washington. The Lions have the Packers (2), Chargers, Cowboys, Chiefs, and Giants. All are .500 or better. The Lions also have to play at Adrian Peterson. That makes this week’s game at Arizona the most important Lions game in seven years. Win and the Lions can afford to close out the season 2-4 and still have a pretty good chance at the last Wild Card spot. Lose and the Lions will have to split against one of the most difficult end-of-season schedules in the league. The good news is that, win or lose this week at Arizona, the game the following week against the NY Giants immediately becomes the most important Lions game in seven years. I can get used to this flirtation with hyperbole. It’s much more exciting than preparing for the draft in late-September.
As happy as I am that the Lions are winning, I’m equally pleased with the way it has happened and the manner in which the success has been treated and accepted by the fans, media, and players. I read a quote the other day from a Lions player—I can’t remember who said it or where it was printed so please don’t hurt me Chris McCosky—that expressed satisfaction at the idea that the Lions were finally giving their fans something to cheer about. Lions fans have been pissed off for six years. They had a right to be. The fact that the current players acknowledge that right and appreciate what the fans have been through makes it easy to support this bunch.
The media has also treated the Lions success the right way. The players have been annoyed—and I can see their point—with the relative skepticism shown by the local media. I would be disappointed if the media wasn’t skeptical. Six years of misery and failure doesn’t get thrown out the window because of one good eight-game stretch or even one good season. Millen isn’t all of a sudden a great GM. The players have not earned the right to never be criticized or second-guessed again. The Lions are winning right now. If that keeps happening this season and next, then perceptions can start to change. Only then can Millen be viewed as a good GM or as having done a good job. Only then can the players be given the benefit of the doubt.
The Lions have matured as the season has progressed. That maturation has happened on the field and on the sidelines. The team has started to rely on the running game which has yielded a more balanced and effective attack. The defense is putting pressure on the quarterback which is the hallmark of a good defense. Granted, the Lions have not beaten a slew of great teams. In fact, I’m not sure that the Lions haven’t even beaten a single “good” team. However, good teams are supposed to beat the bad teams. The Lions have done that. Clearly, the debacles at Philly (L 56-21) and at Washington (L 34-3) are worrisome. This team still has to play its best game to even have a chance against good teams. I presume, though, that at least half of the teams in the NFL would gladly change places with the Lions. This isn’t a talent-less team like the last Lions team to finish above .500 (2000). This team has talent. This team has a very good and sometimes dominating defense. This team has playmakers all over the field. One could look at the current version of the Lions and make a pretty good comparison to the ’05 Tigers. People who follow baseball closely knew the Tigers were heading for an explosion in the not-so-distant future. I get the same feeling with this team. Obviously, there are positions that need to be improved and personnel obstacles that will need to be overcome. It’ll be interesting to see what happens to the offense if/when Mike Martz leaves for another tour as a head coach. It takes 2-3 years to install his offense. The Lions are still getting used to everything his offense entails. If he leaves, it’s possible that the offense will undergo a change in philosophy which will likely cause some stagnation. Jon Kitna is much better than anyone thought he’d be. He clearly has a grasp of the offense. He has a tremendous amount of confidence. However, he probably has a shelf-life of two or three years. When he moves on, the Lions will need to bring in a capable replacement or everything could go south in a hurry. Fortunately, those are problems that all teams face—even good ones.
This team is young and talented. It appears to have a man with a winning vision at the helm (Marinelli). I don’t think this version of the Lions is going to resemble the “win one year and lose the next” version that we had to endure in the 90’s. This might just be the first consistently good Lions franchise in most of our lifetimes. It’ll be interesting to see if all of this comes to fruition because Millen will need to get the credit. Nobody has ever been more publicly maligned than Millen—and deservedly so. However, if he can do something that nobody has ever been able to do since the NFL/AFL merger—turn the Lions into a winning franchise—then he will be a hero in Detroit. And really, Millen’s failure thus far has been no different than Ilitch’s decade-long failure as the Tigers’ owner. The only difference is that Ilitch had the Red Wings to mask the failures of the Tigers. Plus, doing a terrible job does not preordain someone to doing a terrible job forever. Bill Belichick is a perfect example of that.
The remaining schedule is not easy. I can say—with a decent amount of confidence—that the Lions are going to beat my best-case scenario prediction before the season (which was seven wins). I have never been happier to be wrong. However, the Lions have a lot of work to do if they are going to even sniff the 10-win mark as predicted by Kitna. I’m starting to think that the Lions will have to do just that to make the playoffs. The way it looks now, there is one playoff spot open in the NFC. The Packers, Cowboys, Saints, and Seahawks will probably end up being the Division winners. The Giants appear to be on their way to one of the Wild Card spots. That leaves the Lions, Redskins, Bucs, and Panthers to fight for the last Wild Card spot. The Lions hold the tiebreaker over the Bucs and the Redskins hold the tiebreaker over the Lions. Hopefully, the Bucs can beat the ‘Skins on November 25 which would give the Lions a reprieve if all three teams finish with the same record. The Lions have—by far—the most difficult schedule of the group. The Bucs have—by far—the easiest schedule. The Bucs get Atlanta (2), Houston, and San Francisco. Even their more difficult opponents aren’t the greatest in Carolina, New Orleans and Washington. The Lions have the Packers (2), Chargers, Cowboys, Chiefs, and Giants. All are .500 or better. The Lions also have to play at Adrian Peterson. That makes this week’s game at Arizona the most important Lions game in seven years. Win and the Lions can afford to close out the season 2-4 and still have a pretty good chance at the last Wild Card spot. Lose and the Lions will have to split against one of the most difficult end-of-season schedules in the league. The good news is that, win or lose this week at Arizona, the game the following week against the NY Giants immediately becomes the most important Lions game in seven years. I can get used to this flirtation with hyperbole. It’s much more exciting than preparing for the draft in late-September.
Thursday, June 14, 2007
Lions are too good for Culpepper
At some point over the last few years, the Detroit Lions became too good for Daunte Culpepper. I’m not 100% sure when this occurred but I think it was when the Lions were marching towards a 3-13 season in ’06. Or, it could have been in ’05 when the Lions were a force at 5-11. Clearly a team that has gone 24-72 over the last six years has no use for a 30-year old quarterback with a reasonable salary who has a 4,700-yard/39-touchdown-season under his belt.
As tempting as it is to stay in sarcasm mode for the remainder of this post, I’m going to switch to logical/dumbfounded mode. The Lions are in the midst of the worst six-year stretch in NFL history. They have been looking for a franchise QB since before I was born. Their current QB is a 34 year-old journeyman with three more career touchdown passes than interceptions. The Lions couldn’t have a worse QB situation even if they could swap with any team in the league. The Lions feature a freaky-talented three-wide receiver, pass-happy offense. Culpepper just happened to thrive in the same offense for five years in Minnesota. In fact, if anyone should know how good Culpepper can be, it’s Matt Millen. The Lions were biannual victims of Culpepper’s domination.
Two years ago—before Culpepper injured his knee—he was widely recognized as one of the top four quarterbacks in the league (along with Manning, Brady, and McNabb). The Dolphins—hoping that Culpepper would return to form for their organization—gave him a grand total of 11 games over two injury-riddled seasons before concluding that he was washed-up. Now, 27 NFL teams are avoiding him like the plague. I am almost certain that if Tom Brady went down with an injury the Patriots would be the first team in line to trade for Culpepper. It almost seems as if NFL GM’s live in a fantasy world where they practice groupthink refusing to take even the slightest risks for fear of failure. Only in the NFL would a group of highly-paid, educated men think that Randy Moss is washed up. The Green Bay Packers made the dumbest move in the history of professional sports by passing on Moss and that dumbness has little to do with how Moss performs this year. It has everything to do with the fact that it would have cost them a fifth-round draft pick. GM’s over-think themselves to a point of paralysis. That is what the Lions are doing now with the Culpepper situation.
How can we trade for Culpepper when we already have Jon Kitna, Dan Orlovski, and Drew Stanton? I believe that is a question that the Lions front office asked itself without even a hint of sarcasm. And even worse, I think they answered that question with a simple: “we can’t.” The Lions have talked themselves into thinking that there is no room in Detroit for Culpepper when everyone in the universe—with the exception of Terry Foster—can see that he could be a godsend for the organization. The Dolphins just traded a fifth-round draft pick for Trent Green. One would think that Culpepper’s price would be comparable or even less. That means all it would take for the Lions to obtain Culpepper would be parting with a fifth-round. The worst thing that could happen is that the Lions find out that Culpepper will never be the same again and they cut him. The best thing that could happen is that Culpepper returns to form and the Lions have one of the top offenses in the NFL. Any Business or Econ major—or any breathing human being really—could tell you that the cost-benefit analysis of that decision is favorable towards bringing in Culpepper.
One thing that I am having a hard time understanding is how teams are so convinced that Culpepper won’t return to form. His knowledge of the quarterback position should be the same as it ever was. The strength of his arm should be the same as it ever was. The only two things that may cause problems are his ability to scramble and his ability to plant while throwing. Culpepper never needed to scramble to be a good QB in the first place. Plus, he can’t be any slower than Byron Leftwich even after the injury. So everything comes down to Culpepper’s ability to plant his leg while throwing. With modern day medicine and physical therapy, there is no reason to bet against a man being able to rehabilitate his knee to the point of being able to throw a football. At the very least, it’s worth a fifth-round draft pick to find out.
I’m going to close this post by playing a game. I’m going to list a group of quarterbacks. One of the quarterbacks is not like the rest. The object of the game is to identify the quarterback that’s not like the rest. I’ll help even give you a hint: his name is bolded in giant font.
Eric Hipple
Chuck Long
Bob Gagliano
Rodney Peete
Andre Ware
Erik Kramer
Dave Krieg
Scott Mitchell
Kent Graham
Don Majkowski
Matt Blundin
Frank Reich
Charlie Batch
Gus Frerotte
Stoney Case
Ty Detmer
Mike McMahon
Joey Harrington
Jeff Garcia
Dan Orlovsky
Jon Kitna
Josh McCown
Daunte Culpepper
As tempting as it is to stay in sarcasm mode for the remainder of this post, I’m going to switch to logical/dumbfounded mode. The Lions are in the midst of the worst six-year stretch in NFL history. They have been looking for a franchise QB since before I was born. Their current QB is a 34 year-old journeyman with three more career touchdown passes than interceptions. The Lions couldn’t have a worse QB situation even if they could swap with any team in the league. The Lions feature a freaky-talented three-wide receiver, pass-happy offense. Culpepper just happened to thrive in the same offense for five years in Minnesota. In fact, if anyone should know how good Culpepper can be, it’s Matt Millen. The Lions were biannual victims of Culpepper’s domination.
Two years ago—before Culpepper injured his knee—he was widely recognized as one of the top four quarterbacks in the league (along with Manning, Brady, and McNabb). The Dolphins—hoping that Culpepper would return to form for their organization—gave him a grand total of 11 games over two injury-riddled seasons before concluding that he was washed-up. Now, 27 NFL teams are avoiding him like the plague. I am almost certain that if Tom Brady went down with an injury the Patriots would be the first team in line to trade for Culpepper. It almost seems as if NFL GM’s live in a fantasy world where they practice groupthink refusing to take even the slightest risks for fear of failure. Only in the NFL would a group of highly-paid, educated men think that Randy Moss is washed up. The Green Bay Packers made the dumbest move in the history of professional sports by passing on Moss and that dumbness has little to do with how Moss performs this year. It has everything to do with the fact that it would have cost them a fifth-round draft pick. GM’s over-think themselves to a point of paralysis. That is what the Lions are doing now with the Culpepper situation.
How can we trade for Culpepper when we already have Jon Kitna, Dan Orlovski, and Drew Stanton? I believe that is a question that the Lions front office asked itself without even a hint of sarcasm. And even worse, I think they answered that question with a simple: “we can’t.” The Lions have talked themselves into thinking that there is no room in Detroit for Culpepper when everyone in the universe—with the exception of Terry Foster—can see that he could be a godsend for the organization. The Dolphins just traded a fifth-round draft pick for Trent Green. One would think that Culpepper’s price would be comparable or even less. That means all it would take for the Lions to obtain Culpepper would be parting with a fifth-round. The worst thing that could happen is that the Lions find out that Culpepper will never be the same again and they cut him. The best thing that could happen is that Culpepper returns to form and the Lions have one of the top offenses in the NFL. Any Business or Econ major—or any breathing human being really—could tell you that the cost-benefit analysis of that decision is favorable towards bringing in Culpepper.
One thing that I am having a hard time understanding is how teams are so convinced that Culpepper won’t return to form. His knowledge of the quarterback position should be the same as it ever was. The strength of his arm should be the same as it ever was. The only two things that may cause problems are his ability to scramble and his ability to plant while throwing. Culpepper never needed to scramble to be a good QB in the first place. Plus, he can’t be any slower than Byron Leftwich even after the injury. So everything comes down to Culpepper’s ability to plant his leg while throwing. With modern day medicine and physical therapy, there is no reason to bet against a man being able to rehabilitate his knee to the point of being able to throw a football. At the very least, it’s worth a fifth-round draft pick to find out.
I’m going to close this post by playing a game. I’m going to list a group of quarterbacks. One of the quarterbacks is not like the rest. The object of the game is to identify the quarterback that’s not like the rest. I’ll help even give you a hint: his name is bolded in giant font.
Eric Hipple
Chuck Long
Bob Gagliano
Rodney Peete
Andre Ware
Erik Kramer
Dave Krieg
Scott Mitchell
Kent Graham
Don Majkowski
Matt Blundin
Frank Reich
Charlie Batch
Gus Frerotte
Stoney Case
Ty Detmer
Mike McMahon
Joey Harrington
Jeff Garcia
Dan Orlovsky
Jon Kitna
Josh McCown
Daunte Culpepper
Thursday, May 03, 2007
The 2007 Lions didn't catch any breaks
Now that the NFL Draft is over, let the rampant win/loss predictions for 2007 begin. I can’t remember a year when there wasn’t a least a good-sized contingent of Lions fans either saying “this is finally the year” or “we might be able to sneak into the playoffs at 8-8.” I used to do that when I was 10—not so much now. Despite the hoopla of the Calvin Johnson pick—and the eradication of trouble-makers per the Marinelli Doctrine—the draft almost never has anything to do with how the Lions will perform the following season.
The number one indicator of how the Lions will fare—other than the fact that they’re terrible—is the pending schedule for next season. Dating back to the Wayne Fontes-era, the Lions have failed or succeeded based largely on the difficulty of their schedule. The NFL schedule has always been created to give the better teams from the previous year a more difficult schedule and the weaker teams from the previous year an easier schedule. The Lions made a killing off of this in the 90’s. They seemed to almost purposefully fail every other year simply to set up a “cupcake” schedule the following season. This phenomenon somewhat started in 1989 but really got going in 1991. Here is how many games the Lions won in odd years starting in 1989:
1989 7
1991 12
1993 10
1995 10
1997 9
1999 8
Alternatively, here is how the Lions fared in even years starting in 1988:
1988 4
1990 6
1992 5
1994 9
1996 5
1998 5
In odd years in this range, the Lions had a mean win total of 9.33. In even years, the Lions had a mean win total of 5.66. I don’t believe the difference has anything to do with coincidence. The Lions were just good enough to do well with a poor schedule and just bad enough to do terribly with a difficult schedule.
Seemingly every year, Lions die-hards aren’t able to resist predicting absurd win totals based on the draft and “supposed” player development. I understand the excitement that goes into preparing for the upcoming football season. But, things have changed dramatically since the 90’s. The Lions can no longer limp into the playoffs with a roster full of holes. The “reward” of receiving a weak schedule for having a poor previous season has all but disappeared due to the league’s schedule realignment. The Lions were 3-13 in ’06. Their subsequent schedule in ’07 features teams with a combined ’06 record of 129-127. Needless to say, the Lions have their work cut out for them.
Here is how the games play out for NFC North in 2007:
Six games vs. NFC North
Four games vs. AFC West
Four games vs. NFC East
Two games against equivalent team from previous season in NFC West and NFC South
The last two games are all that exist in the name of the old NFL style of giving weak teams from the previous year easier schedules and vice versa. The Lions have had awful rosters for six years now which is one of the primary reasons they’ve fared so poorly. It’s also evident that not having the luxury of having an easier schedule has halted any type of miracle season. I think the way the NFL has the schedule set up now makes the most sense. There’s no need to punish good teams and reward bad teams. It was great to be a Lions fan in the 90’s when this policy almost single handily allowed the Lions to make the playoffs six times in the decade. Regardless, that policy was a misguided attempt to promote parity. The Salary Cap took care of that problem.
So, when you’re predicting the fate of the ’07 Lions, don’t bother thinking about who is playing QB or WR. Just look at the schedule. I have looked through the schedule quite a few times and I can’t see where this team will be able to improve more than a couple games in the win column. I realize that the Lions are capable of winning any game on the schedule per the “Any Given Sunday” mantra. What I tried to do is factor the likelihood of a victory. There are likely to be as many instances of the Lions beating a team they should lose to as there are of the Lions losing to a team they should beat so I don’t pick too many upsets. Sadly, the NFC North has been paired up with the two strongest divisions in football. So things are already looking bleak. Here is the schedule:
1 Sun, Sep 9 at Oakland
2 Sun, Sep 16 Minnesota
3 Sun, Sep 23 at Philadelphia
4 Sun, Sep 30 Chicago
5 Sun, Oct 7 at Washington
6 BYE WEEK
7 Sun, Oct 21 Tampa Bay
8 Sun, Oct 28 at Chicago
9 Sun, Nov 4 Denver
10 Sun, Nov 11 at Arizona
11 Sun, Nov 18 NY Giants
12 Thu, Nov 22 Green Bay
13 Sun, Dec 2 at Minnesota
14 Sun, Dec 9 Dallas
15 Sun, Dec 16 at San Diego
16 Sun, Dec 23 Kansas City
17 Sun, Dec 30 at Green Bay
Let’s break the schedule down the way the NFL does.
Intra-division games:
At best, the Lions could finish 3-3. Since they haven’t beaten Green Bay at Lambeau Field since I was in seventh grade, it’s not a stretch to consider that a loss. Winning at Chicago is nearly impossible. I don’t see the Lions beating Minnesota twice—especially since they haven’t won at Minnesota since 1997. So, 3-3 is the absolute best case scenario.
NFC East games:
The weakest team in the NFC East is Washington and the Lions have to play the Redskins on the road. That is 50/50 at best. The Lions will be underdogs to Dallas, Philly, and the NY Giants. I will reluctantly give the Lions a 1-3 record against those teams.
AFC West games:
The weakest team in the AFC West is Oakland but the Lions have to travel to Oakland. The Lions should win this game but it’s probably 50/50. They will be huge underdogs to Denver and San Diego and slight underdogs to KC at home. The best I can give the Lions in this group of games is 1-3.
NFC West and NFC South games:
The Lions have to play Arizona on the road and Tampa Bay at home. Arizona and Tampa Bay are in the same boat as the Lions. I think both games are 50/50 so I’ll give the Lions a 1-1 record here.
Keep in mind that I have tried to give the Lions the benefit of the doubt. A 3-3 record in conference is really pushing it. Unless Calvin Johnson has an immediate Randy Moss-type presence, the Lions will do no better than 6-10. If Johnson is unstoppable, then I can see an extra win at home against KC and a win at home against either the NY Giants or Dallas. That would be good enough for an 8-8 record. But, realistically, the Lions will be staring at another 10+ loss season come December. Hopefully Millen has his wide receiver fetish out of the way so he can start using his first round picks on strengthening the most important needs on the team (i.e. OL, LB, and CB). Then again, do we really need Aaron Gibson, Chris Claiborne, and Bryant Westbrook? Maybe that’s why Millen keeps taking WR’s; the alternative has been even worse.
Lastly, I do want to apologize for three Lions posts in a row. You don't deserve that and I will try not to let that happen again.
The number one indicator of how the Lions will fare—other than the fact that they’re terrible—is the pending schedule for next season. Dating back to the Wayne Fontes-era, the Lions have failed or succeeded based largely on the difficulty of their schedule. The NFL schedule has always been created to give the better teams from the previous year a more difficult schedule and the weaker teams from the previous year an easier schedule. The Lions made a killing off of this in the 90’s. They seemed to almost purposefully fail every other year simply to set up a “cupcake” schedule the following season. This phenomenon somewhat started in 1989 but really got going in 1991. Here is how many games the Lions won in odd years starting in 1989:
1989 7
1991 12
1993 10
1995 10
1997 9
1999 8
Alternatively, here is how the Lions fared in even years starting in 1988:
1988 4
1990 6
1992 5
1994 9
1996 5
1998 5
In odd years in this range, the Lions had a mean win total of 9.33. In even years, the Lions had a mean win total of 5.66. I don’t believe the difference has anything to do with coincidence. The Lions were just good enough to do well with a poor schedule and just bad enough to do terribly with a difficult schedule.
Seemingly every year, Lions die-hards aren’t able to resist predicting absurd win totals based on the draft and “supposed” player development. I understand the excitement that goes into preparing for the upcoming football season. But, things have changed dramatically since the 90’s. The Lions can no longer limp into the playoffs with a roster full of holes. The “reward” of receiving a weak schedule for having a poor previous season has all but disappeared due to the league’s schedule realignment. The Lions were 3-13 in ’06. Their subsequent schedule in ’07 features teams with a combined ’06 record of 129-127. Needless to say, the Lions have their work cut out for them.
Here is how the games play out for NFC North in 2007:
Six games vs. NFC North
Four games vs. AFC West
Four games vs. NFC East
Two games against equivalent team from previous season in NFC West and NFC South
The last two games are all that exist in the name of the old NFL style of giving weak teams from the previous year easier schedules and vice versa. The Lions have had awful rosters for six years now which is one of the primary reasons they’ve fared so poorly. It’s also evident that not having the luxury of having an easier schedule has halted any type of miracle season. I think the way the NFL has the schedule set up now makes the most sense. There’s no need to punish good teams and reward bad teams. It was great to be a Lions fan in the 90’s when this policy almost single handily allowed the Lions to make the playoffs six times in the decade. Regardless, that policy was a misguided attempt to promote parity. The Salary Cap took care of that problem.
So, when you’re predicting the fate of the ’07 Lions, don’t bother thinking about who is playing QB or WR. Just look at the schedule. I have looked through the schedule quite a few times and I can’t see where this team will be able to improve more than a couple games in the win column. I realize that the Lions are capable of winning any game on the schedule per the “Any Given Sunday” mantra. What I tried to do is factor the likelihood of a victory. There are likely to be as many instances of the Lions beating a team they should lose to as there are of the Lions losing to a team they should beat so I don’t pick too many upsets. Sadly, the NFC North has been paired up with the two strongest divisions in football. So things are already looking bleak. Here is the schedule:
1 Sun, Sep 9 at Oakland
2 Sun, Sep 16 Minnesota
3 Sun, Sep 23 at Philadelphia
4 Sun, Sep 30 Chicago
5 Sun, Oct 7 at Washington
6 BYE WEEK
7 Sun, Oct 21 Tampa Bay
8 Sun, Oct 28 at Chicago
9 Sun, Nov 4 Denver
10 Sun, Nov 11 at Arizona
11 Sun, Nov 18 NY Giants
12 Thu, Nov 22 Green Bay
13 Sun, Dec 2 at Minnesota
14 Sun, Dec 9 Dallas
15 Sun, Dec 16 at San Diego
16 Sun, Dec 23 Kansas City
17 Sun, Dec 30 at Green Bay
Let’s break the schedule down the way the NFL does.
Intra-division games:
At best, the Lions could finish 3-3. Since they haven’t beaten Green Bay at Lambeau Field since I was in seventh grade, it’s not a stretch to consider that a loss. Winning at Chicago is nearly impossible. I don’t see the Lions beating Minnesota twice—especially since they haven’t won at Minnesota since 1997. So, 3-3 is the absolute best case scenario.
NFC East games:
The weakest team in the NFC East is Washington and the Lions have to play the Redskins on the road. That is 50/50 at best. The Lions will be underdogs to Dallas, Philly, and the NY Giants. I will reluctantly give the Lions a 1-3 record against those teams.
AFC West games:
The weakest team in the AFC West is Oakland but the Lions have to travel to Oakland. The Lions should win this game but it’s probably 50/50. They will be huge underdogs to Denver and San Diego and slight underdogs to KC at home. The best I can give the Lions in this group of games is 1-3.
NFC West and NFC South games:
The Lions have to play Arizona on the road and Tampa Bay at home. Arizona and Tampa Bay are in the same boat as the Lions. I think both games are 50/50 so I’ll give the Lions a 1-1 record here.
Keep in mind that I have tried to give the Lions the benefit of the doubt. A 3-3 record in conference is really pushing it. Unless Calvin Johnson has an immediate Randy Moss-type presence, the Lions will do no better than 6-10. If Johnson is unstoppable, then I can see an extra win at home against KC and a win at home against either the NY Giants or Dallas. That would be good enough for an 8-8 record. But, realistically, the Lions will be staring at another 10+ loss season come December. Hopefully Millen has his wide receiver fetish out of the way so he can start using his first round picks on strengthening the most important needs on the team (i.e. OL, LB, and CB). Then again, do we really need Aaron Gibson, Chris Claiborne, and Bryant Westbrook? Maybe that’s why Millen keeps taking WR’s; the alternative has been even worse.
Lastly, I do want to apologize for three Lions posts in a row. You don't deserve that and I will try not to let that happen again.
Monday, April 30, 2007
Lions draft assessment
Considering the Lions ended up going with “Good Scenario #1” from last week’s “The Perfect Draft Scenario” post, I am obviously pleased with what Millen and Co. did with the second overall pick in the NFL Draft. It’s important to note that just about every other “good” scenario that I had mapped out never really had a chance of happening because teams weren’t much interested in trading—or at least trading fairly. Reports surfaced early in the draft that Tampa Bay was reluctant to give up its two second round picks to the Lions for Calvin Johnson. Since the Lions were probably looking for more than two second-round picks, I think it’s safe to say that discussions never really reached a serious level. Cleveland had no interest in Brady Quinn—at least at #3 overall—so scaring the Browns into moving up a spot to secure Quinn was also off the table. When nobody offered anything beyond mediocre, the Lions did the only smart thing left to do—take Calvin Johnson.
When Miami passed on Quinn at #9, it became apparent that Quinn had a long wait ahead of him. The longer his wait lasted, the more the idea of a team trading up to get him became a possibility. I started to wonder if Millen had thoughts of trading up. A draft class featuring Johnson and Quinn would surely set the Motor City on fire with optimism. The Lions would have needed to trade up 12 spots from 34 to get to where Quinn was inevitably drafted. I was thinking that something along the line of this year’s second and third round picks and next year’s second would be something I think the Lions would have to seriously consider. I’d even throw in two of the four fifth-round picks that the Lions had this year. Any discussion of next year’s first round pick would be a deal- breaker in my mind. So when Cleveland traded up 13 spots from 35 and gave up its second round pick and next year’s first round pick, I was very thankful that the Lions weren’t naïve enough to get involved in a trade that costly. While conventional wisdom says the Browns gave up too much to get Quinn, the Trade Value Chart shows it even more vehemently. The 22nd pick in the draft is worth 800 points. The 35th pick in the draft is worth 600 points. That means that theoretically the Browns only had to give up an extra 200 points (equivalent to a mid-third round pick) along with their second round pick to match-up point-wise. Instead, the Browns gave up a first-round pick next year which will more than likely be in the top 12. The 12th overall pick in the draft is worth a whopping 1,200 points. Nobody takes the Trade Value Chart as the final authority on trading draft picks. It is merely a guideline. However, I’m not talking about a hundred-point difference; I’m talking about 1,200 points. The first thing I thought when I heard about the Browns trading up wasn’t that Quinn finally got drafted but rather how sweet of a deal Dallas made. While I hope Millen at least made an inquiry about trading up to draft Quinn, he once again made a correct decision in the first round. Judging the first round alone, I would have to give the Lions an A. Part of this grade is also due to the Lions not giving into to some local media pressure to draft Gaines Adams on need alone. That would have been a nightmare.
Unfortunately, the draft moves on after the first round which is something that Millen may not have been aware of. The Lions’ draft fell apart the moment the draft entered the second round. First, the Lions allowed Arizona to jump in front of them to draft Alan Branch who had inexplicably fallen out of the first round. Anybody with even a remote sense of football knowledge can tell you that Branch is a bona fide first round talent. If the Lions weren’t planning on taking Branch with the 34th pick then they have more problems than I thought. Arizona certainly thought the Lions were going to take Branch which is why they traded up right in front of Detroit. I have to think that Oakland called Detroit before they finalized the trade with Arizona to see if Detroit was interested. All it cost Arizona to move up five spots to take Branch was a fourth-round pick. I would have done that deal in a second if I were Millen. Branch is a first-round talent and all it would have cost the Lions was a fourth-round pick. Missing out on Branch was a disaster. Arizona had their stuff together and it showed. They also took Buster Davis in the third round. Davis is better than all three of Detroit’s second round picks, in my opinion.
The Lions—possibly reeling from losing out on Branch—quickly traded out of the 34th pick which allowed them to pick up an extra third round pick. This was actually a good move. If Branch is who the Lions wanted and there was nobody else they thought was worth taking, then trading down was the right move. Regrettably, the Lions followed that move up with a series of dreadful decisions the first of which was drafting Drew Stanton with the 43rd pick. I am not a Stanton-hater. I think he is a smart QB with the potential to be an adequate starter in the NFL. I am, however, a “reach” hater. After making two other trades, the Lions had a total of three second-round draft picks. Since Stanton was a borderline 2nd round pick, the Lions reached to take him with their first second-round pick. The Lions could have ended up with LaMarr Woodley, Drew Stanton, and Buster Davis/Marcus McCauley/Daymeion Hughes. Instead, they ended up with Drew Stanton, Ikaika Alma-Francis, and Gerald Alexander. The latter two were serious reaches. Alexander was a borderline third-round pick. Alma-Francis was viewed similarly. Woodley is a fierce pass-rusher with size and quickness. There isn’t any question in my mind—or in most scouts’ minds—as to whether Woodley is superior to Alma-Francis. There has been plenty of speculation that Alma-Francis and Alexander would have been available in the third or fourth rounds which I am inclined to believe as well. Reaching for players or drafting “projects” is fine for the fourth and fifth rounds but the second round is where teams still get starters. It’s just disappointing that the Lions turned three second-round picks into two “projects” and one QB that has as many shortfalls as strengths. I would love for someone from the Lions to write to me two year’s from now about how wrong I was hear. I just don’t think it’s going to happen.
The Lions actually came away with a low risk/high reward type player in the fourth round in A.J. Davis. He is a player that has never really put it all together at the same time but has a tremendous amount of physical ability. He was one of the top 25 players coming out of high school according to at least one prominent recruiting service. He is extremely fast. The Lions have drafted an abundance of cornerbacks that fit the injured/underrated mold in the past few years. None of them have really panned about but that’s what the fourth round is for—not the second round! The Lions also drafted a guard from Texas Tech with a low risk/high reward label in the fourth round. The Lions appeared to have made a steal last year in the seventh round by drafting USC’s Fred Matua but they subsequently released him. Hopefully, this guy (Manuel Ramirez) has a better fate. The rest of the draft featured Johnny Baldwin and Ramzee Robinson. I know absolutely nothing about either player so I’m not even going to pretend to know what I’m talking about.
Since the first round is probably worth 70-75% of a draft grade, the Lions could receive no less than a C- from me and that’s if I gave them a 0% for rounds 2-7. I’ll give the Lions a D for their non-Calvin Johnson selections. Tied into that D is how they handled the trading of Mike Williams and Josh McCown. The Lions may have taken the best trade available—which is what they said they did—but if you’re only getting a fourth round pick in return for a first-round pick two years ago and your back-up QB, then why trade them at all? The Lions fumbled the Mike Williams era in Detroit from the moment they drafted him. The Lions weren’t going to win last season and everyone knew it. Yet, they sidelined Williams for basically the whole season. The Lions were just as responsible for Williams’ plummeted stock around the league as Williams was. They could have showcased him last season in an attempt to garner trade interest from around the league. Instead, they basically put up a sign that says “offer us nothing for Mike Williams and we’ll trade with you.” That brings Detroit’s overall draft grade to a B- . Had the Lions drafted Gaines Adams at #2 as some suggested, I would have given the Lions an F-. I am genuinely excited about seeing a non-overweight, non-habitual drug test-failer, top five wide-receiver selection actually put up meaningful statistics in Detroit. For the next couple days, that excitement will be tempered a bit as I try to get over the rash of questionable draft picks the Lions made after Johnson.
When Miami passed on Quinn at #9, it became apparent that Quinn had a long wait ahead of him. The longer his wait lasted, the more the idea of a team trading up to get him became a possibility. I started to wonder if Millen had thoughts of trading up. A draft class featuring Johnson and Quinn would surely set the Motor City on fire with optimism. The Lions would have needed to trade up 12 spots from 34 to get to where Quinn was inevitably drafted. I was thinking that something along the line of this year’s second and third round picks and next year’s second would be something I think the Lions would have to seriously consider. I’d even throw in two of the four fifth-round picks that the Lions had this year. Any discussion of next year’s first round pick would be a deal- breaker in my mind. So when Cleveland traded up 13 spots from 35 and gave up its second round pick and next year’s first round pick, I was very thankful that the Lions weren’t naïve enough to get involved in a trade that costly. While conventional wisdom says the Browns gave up too much to get Quinn, the Trade Value Chart shows it even more vehemently. The 22nd pick in the draft is worth 800 points. The 35th pick in the draft is worth 600 points. That means that theoretically the Browns only had to give up an extra 200 points (equivalent to a mid-third round pick) along with their second round pick to match-up point-wise. Instead, the Browns gave up a first-round pick next year which will more than likely be in the top 12. The 12th overall pick in the draft is worth a whopping 1,200 points. Nobody takes the Trade Value Chart as the final authority on trading draft picks. It is merely a guideline. However, I’m not talking about a hundred-point difference; I’m talking about 1,200 points. The first thing I thought when I heard about the Browns trading up wasn’t that Quinn finally got drafted but rather how sweet of a deal Dallas made. While I hope Millen at least made an inquiry about trading up to draft Quinn, he once again made a correct decision in the first round. Judging the first round alone, I would have to give the Lions an A. Part of this grade is also due to the Lions not giving into to some local media pressure to draft Gaines Adams on need alone. That would have been a nightmare.
Unfortunately, the draft moves on after the first round which is something that Millen may not have been aware of. The Lions’ draft fell apart the moment the draft entered the second round. First, the Lions allowed Arizona to jump in front of them to draft Alan Branch who had inexplicably fallen out of the first round. Anybody with even a remote sense of football knowledge can tell you that Branch is a bona fide first round talent. If the Lions weren’t planning on taking Branch with the 34th pick then they have more problems than I thought. Arizona certainly thought the Lions were going to take Branch which is why they traded up right in front of Detroit. I have to think that Oakland called Detroit before they finalized the trade with Arizona to see if Detroit was interested. All it cost Arizona to move up five spots to take Branch was a fourth-round pick. I would have done that deal in a second if I were Millen. Branch is a first-round talent and all it would have cost the Lions was a fourth-round pick. Missing out on Branch was a disaster. Arizona had their stuff together and it showed. They also took Buster Davis in the third round. Davis is better than all three of Detroit’s second round picks, in my opinion.
The Lions—possibly reeling from losing out on Branch—quickly traded out of the 34th pick which allowed them to pick up an extra third round pick. This was actually a good move. If Branch is who the Lions wanted and there was nobody else they thought was worth taking, then trading down was the right move. Regrettably, the Lions followed that move up with a series of dreadful decisions the first of which was drafting Drew Stanton with the 43rd pick. I am not a Stanton-hater. I think he is a smart QB with the potential to be an adequate starter in the NFL. I am, however, a “reach” hater. After making two other trades, the Lions had a total of three second-round draft picks. Since Stanton was a borderline 2nd round pick, the Lions reached to take him with their first second-round pick. The Lions could have ended up with LaMarr Woodley, Drew Stanton, and Buster Davis/Marcus McCauley/Daymeion Hughes. Instead, they ended up with Drew Stanton, Ikaika Alma-Francis, and Gerald Alexander. The latter two were serious reaches. Alexander was a borderline third-round pick. Alma-Francis was viewed similarly. Woodley is a fierce pass-rusher with size and quickness. There isn’t any question in my mind—or in most scouts’ minds—as to whether Woodley is superior to Alma-Francis. There has been plenty of speculation that Alma-Francis and Alexander would have been available in the third or fourth rounds which I am inclined to believe as well. Reaching for players or drafting “projects” is fine for the fourth and fifth rounds but the second round is where teams still get starters. It’s just disappointing that the Lions turned three second-round picks into two “projects” and one QB that has as many shortfalls as strengths. I would love for someone from the Lions to write to me two year’s from now about how wrong I was hear. I just don’t think it’s going to happen.
The Lions actually came away with a low risk/high reward type player in the fourth round in A.J. Davis. He is a player that has never really put it all together at the same time but has a tremendous amount of physical ability. He was one of the top 25 players coming out of high school according to at least one prominent recruiting service. He is extremely fast. The Lions have drafted an abundance of cornerbacks that fit the injured/underrated mold in the past few years. None of them have really panned about but that’s what the fourth round is for—not the second round! The Lions also drafted a guard from Texas Tech with a low risk/high reward label in the fourth round. The Lions appeared to have made a steal last year in the seventh round by drafting USC’s Fred Matua but they subsequently released him. Hopefully, this guy (Manuel Ramirez) has a better fate. The rest of the draft featured Johnny Baldwin and Ramzee Robinson. I know absolutely nothing about either player so I’m not even going to pretend to know what I’m talking about.
Since the first round is probably worth 70-75% of a draft grade, the Lions could receive no less than a C- from me and that’s if I gave them a 0% for rounds 2-7. I’ll give the Lions a D for their non-Calvin Johnson selections. Tied into that D is how they handled the trading of Mike Williams and Josh McCown. The Lions may have taken the best trade available—which is what they said they did—but if you’re only getting a fourth round pick in return for a first-round pick two years ago and your back-up QB, then why trade them at all? The Lions fumbled the Mike Williams era in Detroit from the moment they drafted him. The Lions weren’t going to win last season and everyone knew it. Yet, they sidelined Williams for basically the whole season. The Lions were just as responsible for Williams’ plummeted stock around the league as Williams was. They could have showcased him last season in an attempt to garner trade interest from around the league. Instead, they basically put up a sign that says “offer us nothing for Mike Williams and we’ll trade with you.” That brings Detroit’s overall draft grade to a B- . Had the Lions drafted Gaines Adams at #2 as some suggested, I would have given the Lions an F-. I am genuinely excited about seeing a non-overweight, non-habitual drug test-failer, top five wide-receiver selection actually put up meaningful statistics in Detroit. For the next couple days, that excitement will be tempered a bit as I try to get over the rash of questionable draft picks the Lions made after Johnson.
Thursday, April 26, 2007
The Perfect Draft Scenario
The following scenario is for entertainment purposes only. There is a better chance of understanding the lyrics to a 50 Cent song than there is that the Lions will attempt the following. Please, for your own sanity, do not get your hopes up.
The Lions should show faux interest in drafting Brady Quinn. They should call Cleveland and let them know that they are going to draft Quinn unless Cleveland wants to throw them a second round pick. If Cleveland wants Quinn bad enough, they will have no choice but to make the move. The Lions would then have the third pick to go along with two second round picks.
Then, the Lions should call Tampa Bay and Atlanta and let them know that they are planning on drafting Calvin Johnson with the third pick unless either of those teams wants to “ante up.” If both Atlanta and Tampa Bay want to trade their two second-round picks, then the Lions are presented with a dilemma. Atlanta has the better combination of second round choices at # 39 and #44 (Tampa Bay has #35 and #64). However, trading with Atlanta likely means passing on Thomas, Peterson, and possibly Adams. It also means eliminating and possibility of trading down one spot to Arizona. The best option would be to trade with Tampa Bay. TB will almost certainly be interested in moving up to take Johnson.
The Lions could then offer the fourth pick to Arizona who is, by many accounts, enchanted with Joe Thomas. The Lions could again pick up an extra second round pick by dropping down a spot to fifth. This would leave the Lions with the fifth pick and the option of picking Adrian Peterson or Gaines Adams, or the option of trading down a couple spots again. If Arizona doesn’t want to trade up, then the Lions can simply draft Joe Thomas to go along with four second round picks.
Something tells me that no NFL team would ever attempt this because of the complexity. I don’t believe it is complex in the slightest. Every move features a more-than-acceptable exit strategy. If any of the teams declines a trade at any point, the Lions could easily stay wherever they are at that point and draft a very good player. If the Lions choose this scenario—and it would make my year if they did—these are the picks they would end up with:
1 #5
2 #34
2 #35
2 #36
2 #38
2 #64
3 #66
No team has ever had more leverage in the history of the NFL draft. The four teams immediately following the Lions all have their eyes on specific players. The Lions are in the enviable position of not caring who they end up with because their needs are so pronounced. If they play their cards right, they could end up with Adrian Peterson and five second round draft picks or Joe Thomas and four second round draft picks. Imagine the possibilities of trading up with five second-round draft picks. They would have no problem snatching up Patrick Willis somewhere in the mid-first round. As fantastic as this idea sounds, the Lions will probably not even consider it. The fact that no team has ever done anything this elaborate before probably keeps the Lions from giving it much thought.
Assuming the Lions won’t be bold enough to rake in possibly the greatest draft haul in NFL history; it makes sense to discuss the more likely scenarios. By my calculations, there are only a few ways the Lions can screw up with their first round draft pick on Saturday and they all have something to do with Gaines Adams. I don’t think we’re out of danger completely with respect to the Lions passing on Brady Quinn and—if Oakland passes on him—JaMarcus Russell. But, I think the Lions are looking in other directions. I do think we’re very much in danger of seeing the Lions draft Adams. I know there are more than a few local media members who are begging the Lions to draft Adams. I can kind of see where they’re coming from. The Lions have an awful pass rush. So, it stands to reason to want to draft a defensive end. The 1998 Chargers needed a quarterback. So, they took Ryan Leaf. I’m not suggesting Adams is the defensive version of Leaf. I’m just saying that you can’t be stubborn enough to draft on need when the value isn’t there. I’ve read on more than a few occasions that there are six elite “prospects” in this draft. The only reason it’s six is because Adams has been inexplicably thrown in with the group of Russell, Quinn, Calvin Johnson, Adrian Peterson, and Joe Thomas. I’m not sure how an undersized defensive end managed to reach “elite” status but it has happened nonetheless.
Just Say No to Defensive Ends
Draft “busts” are not specific to any position. No position is immune to a bust, either. However, I think that drafting a defensive end produces the most diminished returns of any other position. Defensive end prospects often shoot up the draft charts because they are in the unique position of “raising eyebrows” at the NFL Draft Combine. No other position consistently produces athletes that stand 6’5, weigh 260 lbs, run the 40-yard dash in 4.6 seconds, bench press 25 reps of 225, and vertically jump 40 inches. Scouts salivate over those numbers. If numbers were all that mattered, then teams would draft defensive ends with their first pick every year. Adams could be a solid pro. He had tremendous success in college and has impressive “measurables.” Adams would be a great pick for a team in the mid-first round. Drafting Adams at #2 or #4 would be a monumental reach. One only needs to look at past drafts to see how rare it is for a defensive end to live up to his pre-draft hype. Additionally, a large percentage of the elite defensive ends in the NFL were drafted outside of the first round. Here is a list of the Pro Bowl defensive ends over the last three seasons along with where they were drafted:
Player---------------Round
Julius Peppers-------First Round
Aaron Shobel--------Second Round
Jason Taylor---------Third Round
Derrick Burgess------Third Round
Will Smith------------First Round
Aaron Kampman-----Fifth Round
Dwight Freeney------First round
Michael Strahan------Second Round
Osi Umenyiora-------Second Round
Kyle Vanden Bosch---Second Round
Aaron Smith----------Undrafted
Bertrand Berry-------Third Round
Patrick Kerney-------First Round
Two things stand out. First, only Peppers, Taylor, Freeney, and Strahan are what I would call unbelievable players. The others are very good but not necessarily worth the second pick in the draft. So, even a good defensive end is usually not a dominating player. Second, notice the number of players that weren’t selected in the first round. Not only is the defensive end position one that produces its share of busts, it is also a position that produces a bevy of low-round values. The Lions signed James Hall as an undrafted free agent in 2000. He produced 11.5 sacks in 2004 before battling injuries his last two years in Detroit. I know there is a huge difference between “serviceable” (James Hall) and “game-changing” (Julius Peppers). Clearly it pays to draft someone of the caliber of Peppers in the top five. Peppers is a once-a-decade player. Adams is no Peppers. Considering the value that can be found in the later rounds and the relative letdown of top ten picks at the position, it just doesn’t make sense to draft a defensive end that has as many question marks as Adams. There are too many elite players available to draft Adams out of need. Having said that, I think there are far more “correct” decisions the Lions can make on Saturday than “wrong” ones.
The Lions should show faux interest in drafting Brady Quinn. They should call Cleveland and let them know that they are going to draft Quinn unless Cleveland wants to throw them a second round pick. If Cleveland wants Quinn bad enough, they will have no choice but to make the move. The Lions would then have the third pick to go along with two second round picks.
Then, the Lions should call Tampa Bay and Atlanta and let them know that they are planning on drafting Calvin Johnson with the third pick unless either of those teams wants to “ante up.” If both Atlanta and Tampa Bay want to trade their two second-round picks, then the Lions are presented with a dilemma. Atlanta has the better combination of second round choices at # 39 and #44 (Tampa Bay has #35 and #64). However, trading with Atlanta likely means passing on Thomas, Peterson, and possibly Adams. It also means eliminating and possibility of trading down one spot to Arizona. The best option would be to trade with Tampa Bay. TB will almost certainly be interested in moving up to take Johnson.
The Lions could then offer the fourth pick to Arizona who is, by many accounts, enchanted with Joe Thomas. The Lions could again pick up an extra second round pick by dropping down a spot to fifth. This would leave the Lions with the fifth pick and the option of picking Adrian Peterson or Gaines Adams, or the option of trading down a couple spots again. If Arizona doesn’t want to trade up, then the Lions can simply draft Joe Thomas to go along with four second round picks.
Something tells me that no NFL team would ever attempt this because of the complexity. I don’t believe it is complex in the slightest. Every move features a more-than-acceptable exit strategy. If any of the teams declines a trade at any point, the Lions could easily stay wherever they are at that point and draft a very good player. If the Lions choose this scenario—and it would make my year if they did—these are the picks they would end up with:
1 #5
2 #34
2 #35
2 #36
2 #38
2 #64
3 #66
No team has ever had more leverage in the history of the NFL draft. The four teams immediately following the Lions all have their eyes on specific players. The Lions are in the enviable position of not caring who they end up with because their needs are so pronounced. If they play their cards right, they could end up with Adrian Peterson and five second round draft picks or Joe Thomas and four second round draft picks. Imagine the possibilities of trading up with five second-round draft picks. They would have no problem snatching up Patrick Willis somewhere in the mid-first round. As fantastic as this idea sounds, the Lions will probably not even consider it. The fact that no team has ever done anything this elaborate before probably keeps the Lions from giving it much thought.
Assuming the Lions won’t be bold enough to rake in possibly the greatest draft haul in NFL history; it makes sense to discuss the more likely scenarios. By my calculations, there are only a few ways the Lions can screw up with their first round draft pick on Saturday and they all have something to do with Gaines Adams. I don’t think we’re out of danger completely with respect to the Lions passing on Brady Quinn and—if Oakland passes on him—JaMarcus Russell. But, I think the Lions are looking in other directions. I do think we’re very much in danger of seeing the Lions draft Adams. I know there are more than a few local media members who are begging the Lions to draft Adams. I can kind of see where they’re coming from. The Lions have an awful pass rush. So, it stands to reason to want to draft a defensive end. The 1998 Chargers needed a quarterback. So, they took Ryan Leaf. I’m not suggesting Adams is the defensive version of Leaf. I’m just saying that you can’t be stubborn enough to draft on need when the value isn’t there. I’ve read on more than a few occasions that there are six elite “prospects” in this draft. The only reason it’s six is because Adams has been inexplicably thrown in with the group of Russell, Quinn, Calvin Johnson, Adrian Peterson, and Joe Thomas. I’m not sure how an undersized defensive end managed to reach “elite” status but it has happened nonetheless.
Just Say No to Defensive Ends
Draft “busts” are not specific to any position. No position is immune to a bust, either. However, I think that drafting a defensive end produces the most diminished returns of any other position. Defensive end prospects often shoot up the draft charts because they are in the unique position of “raising eyebrows” at the NFL Draft Combine. No other position consistently produces athletes that stand 6’5, weigh 260 lbs, run the 40-yard dash in 4.6 seconds, bench press 25 reps of 225, and vertically jump 40 inches. Scouts salivate over those numbers. If numbers were all that mattered, then teams would draft defensive ends with their first pick every year. Adams could be a solid pro. He had tremendous success in college and has impressive “measurables.” Adams would be a great pick for a team in the mid-first round. Drafting Adams at #2 or #4 would be a monumental reach. One only needs to look at past drafts to see how rare it is for a defensive end to live up to his pre-draft hype. Additionally, a large percentage of the elite defensive ends in the NFL were drafted outside of the first round. Here is a list of the Pro Bowl defensive ends over the last three seasons along with where they were drafted:
Player---------------Round
Julius Peppers-------First Round
Aaron Shobel--------Second Round
Jason Taylor---------Third Round
Derrick Burgess------Third Round
Will Smith------------First Round
Aaron Kampman-----Fifth Round
Dwight Freeney------First round
Michael Strahan------Second Round
Osi Umenyiora-------Second Round
Kyle Vanden Bosch---Second Round
Aaron Smith----------Undrafted
Bertrand Berry-------Third Round
Patrick Kerney-------First Round
Two things stand out. First, only Peppers, Taylor, Freeney, and Strahan are what I would call unbelievable players. The others are very good but not necessarily worth the second pick in the draft. So, even a good defensive end is usually not a dominating player. Second, notice the number of players that weren’t selected in the first round. Not only is the defensive end position one that produces its share of busts, it is also a position that produces a bevy of low-round values. The Lions signed James Hall as an undrafted free agent in 2000. He produced 11.5 sacks in 2004 before battling injuries his last two years in Detroit. I know there is a huge difference between “serviceable” (James Hall) and “game-changing” (Julius Peppers). Clearly it pays to draft someone of the caliber of Peppers in the top five. Peppers is a once-a-decade player. Adams is no Peppers. Considering the value that can be found in the later rounds and the relative letdown of top ten picks at the position, it just doesn’t make sense to draft a defensive end that has as many question marks as Adams. There are too many elite players available to draft Adams out of need. Having said that, I think there are far more “correct” decisions the Lions can make on Saturday than “wrong” ones.
It has been written by many sources that the Raiders will likely select JaMarcus Russell with the first pick. I don't think it's a "slam dunk" decision. Al Davis loves him some freaky wide receivers. It would not surprise me if he took Johnson. If the Raiders do take Johnson, then the Lions lose a lot of their leverage with the #2 pick. But, that doesn't mean they still can't make a few trades. I do not think they should draft Russell if he is there. I think they would be better off trading down a spot to Cleveland because Cleveland will want Russell. Then, the Lions could either draft Joe Thomas or Adrian Peterson or trade down again. For this post, however, I'm going to assume that the Raiders will draft Russell.
Here are the scenarios in which the Lions could end up with a successful first round:
Good Scenario One:
Draft Calvin Johnson with the second pick.
Johnson is no Charles Rogers or Mike Williams. Rogers and Williams didn’t have anything close to Johnson’s level of athleticism. Also, Johnson was honest enough to admit to marijuana use before the draft. Some may argue against this but I think that shows at least some integrity. The Lions had to wait until Rogers failed the first of many drug tests before they found out that he was a marijuana user. Jon Kitna is good enough that he could do some damage with Johnson and Roy Williams.
This also allows the Lions to listen to trade offers even after the pick. It can’t hurt to listen. If Tampa Bay or Atlanta wants to offer up an enticing package, then let them.
Good Scenario Two:
Trade down and draft Joe Thomas.
It would be my preference that the Lions not draft Joe Thomas with the second pick. He would, in all likelihood, be available at pick #4. The Lions could pick up extra draft picks and perhaps a player at a position of need. Thomas could be a very good tackle. The Lions haven’t had even a “good” tackle since the days of Lomas Brown and his annual holdouts. The second quickest way to improve the running game is to draft Thomas. The quickest way is to draft Adrian Peterson but the Lions already have 87 running backs that are expected to receive playing time so I’m not sure the Lions want another one.
Good Scenario Three:
Trade down and draft Adrian Peterson.
Passing on Peterson would be very much akin to the Texans passing on Reggie Bush. Peterson has everything you could ask for in an NFL running back with the possible exception of being good at avoiding injury. He is drawing comparisons to Eric Dickerson and I don’t think those comparisons are far off. He is the type of player that you draft regardless of need.
Good Scenario Four:
Trade down and draft Calvin Johnson.
There is really only one option that makes this possible. Cleveland is apparently concerned that the Lions may be thinking about Brady Quinn. The Lions could force a trade with Cleveland and pick up an extra draft pick ala 2004 when the Lions were able to squeeze a pick out of Cleveland that ended up turning into Kevin Jones. The Lions would pick up an extra pick for dropping down one spot. This would still allow Matt Millen to explore trade options with Tampa Bay at #4 and Atlanta at #8. I would really like to see Millen attempt to trade with Cleveland. It’s really a no-lose situation—unless Cleveland bamboozles Detroit by selecting Johnson. That would be a disaster.
Here are the scenarios in which I think the Lions will have wasted the leverage of having the second pick in such a top-heavy year (notice that Adams is prominently involved in each one):
Bad Scenario One:
Draft anyone other than Johnson with the second pick.
Drafting anyone other than Johnson immediately destroys any leverage that the Lions had by having the second pick. They can trade down and still draft Thomas, Peterson, or—if they must—Adams. The only player that makes sense to draft with the second pick is Johnson.
Bad Scenario Two:
Draft Gaines Adams with the second pick.
This one also falls under “Scenario One” but I want to highlight the importance of not doing this. The absolute worst thing the Lions could do is draft Gaines Adams with the second pick. This would be a monumental blunder and devoid of any logic or reason. I am convinced the Lions know how valuable the second pick is this year with Calvin Johnson being on everyone’s wish list. So, I don’t think this will happen. It is possible, though.
Bad Scenario Three:
Trade down to #3 and draft Adams.
It would defy reason for the Lions to trade down one spot to the third pick and then not trade down again to the fourth pick only to pick Adams. Cleveland wants Quinn. Tampa Bay wants Johnson. The Lions could take advantage of knowing that instead of taking Adams at either #2 or #3.
Bad Scenario Four:
Trade down to #4 and draft Adams.
If the Lions trade down to the fourth pick, the first three selections in the draft will likely be JaMarcus Russell, Calvin Johnson, and Brady Quinn. That would leave the Lions the choice of Joe Thomas or Adrian Peterson. Picking Adams over those two would be foolish.
Bad Scenario Five:
Trade down to #8 and draft Adams.
There are so many opportunities to trade multiple times within the top five (see first paragraph) that it doesn’t make sense for the Lions to trade from second to eighth. Clearly picking Adams at #8 would be better than picking Adams at #2 but that’s about all it is better than.
I’m still unsure whether I think Adams is a good value at #8. If the Lions take him with the eighth pick, we just have to hope he turns out to be pretty good. A trade to eight means the Lions would pick up two second round picks from Atlanta at a minimum. This would give the Lions three second round picks which is more than enough to trade back into the first round. Whether those picks will be enough to trade high enough into the first round to draft Patrick Willis is yet to be known. Thomas and Willis or Peterson and Willis would be a much better haul than Adams and Willis, in my opinion. While this wouldn’t be a terrible draft haul, the sheer number of more favorable options makes this scenario a relatively bad one.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
