Ironies, or Fibs?

Fast food restaurants have to be "transparent," and post calories. Even though there is no evidence that this helps.  It's just expensive.  But members of Congress don't have to allow anyone to read legislation before it's passed.  Let's pass this thing, so we can find out what's in it!

And there are no pre-existing conditions or upcharges in ACA.  No one can be denied.  Except that there are, and you can.  And anyone who is upcharged will just not finish the application.  So we are manufacturing a giant adverse selection problem.

I don't think "the state" has a real collective consciousness capable of appreciating irony.  These are just fibs that serve to protect the corrupt individuals who are yelling "Pay no attention to the politicians behind the curtain!"  Nancy Pelosi is NOT a very bad woman.  She's just a very bad leader in a democracy that values transparency.

Men Think Women Dig Them, Women are Surprised By This

The Misperception of Sexual Interest

Carin Perilloux, Judith Easton & David Buss
Psychological Science, forthcoming

Abstract: The current study (N = 199) utilized a "speed-meeting" methodology to study sexual misperception. This method allowed us to evaluate the magnitude of
men's sexual over-perception bias, whether and how women misperceive sexual interest, and individual differences in susceptibility to misperception. We found strong support for the novel prediction that women underestimate the sexual interest of male interaction partners. Men inclined to pursue a short-term mating strategy and men who rated themselves as attractive were especially likely to over-perceive women's sexual interest. As targets of misperception, women's physical attractiveness predicted the magnitude of men's sexual over-perception bias. We discuss implications of gender differences and individual differences within sex in susceptibility to sexual misperception.

Interesting that the prettier the woman, the more the man thinks she is interested in him. All men think they are good drivers, good dancers, and good...you know.

To be fair, though, this is clearly adaptive. Type 1 and type 2 error problem. If only one out of ten women who smile at you actually thinks she wants you, it makes sense to be embarrassed nine times and have a shot at reproducing once. There is no fitness penalty for embarrassment. But there is a fitness penalty for thinking you are ugly and not trying. The fact that most men are in fact ugly is irrelevant.

Nod to Kevin Lewis, who is always a gentleman.

Markets in everything: non-surgical sterilization

Levi's is actually marketing and selling what they call "ex-girlfriend jeans" to men.

Here's their pitch:

Remember the girlfriend with the great style? Here's a tribute to her -- a fit that's super-snug allover, an update of the five-pocket classic that's as skinny as it gets.

Here's a pic:

I can totally see this fad sweeping through the membership of the American Economic Association, can't you?

Good news for people who love bad news

Here's a cheery note to start your morning: Economists are doomed!

Yes, we are in the same category (high paying jobs with no future) as travel agents and newspaper reporters according to Yahoo! Finance:

The Federal government is the largest employer of economists in the country. More than half — 53 percent — of all economists in the U.S. work for declining government sectors, so Uncle Sam's not hiring a lot of economists just now. "Econ" is a hot college major, but most of those newly-minted grads won't find work as traditional economists. Instead, they'll end up in niche sectors in business, finance, insurance, and education. Those set on working as conventional economists better have a Plan B, or a Plan Ph.D, because they'll need one. The economists at BLS do tell us that by 2018, an additional 900 economists will be employed — so the outlook is not as dismal for dismal scientists as it is for, say, travel agents. But if current trends continue, the future isn't promising. "You look at the last 10 to15 years and it has been flat," says Henry Kasper of the BLS. "There's little reason to think it's going to get better."

So it's not technology that's killing economists, it's smaller government? I guess that helps to explain a few things, no?

I personally think economists are like meteorologists; the more we screw up, the more we are in demand!

We are also like chameleons; we can change our stripes and insinuate ourselves pretty much anywhere in the workplace. That is part of what makes "econ" such a great major.

the irresistible force and the immovable object

This is so great. China is trying to censor Wikileaks!

"According to WikiLeaks’ calculations, China appears in more than 8,300 of the cables—good enough for fifth place, behind Israel and just ahead of Afghanistan. The U.S. Embassy in Beijing accounts for 3,300 of the roughly 250,000 cables WikiLeaks claims to have in its possession. Six of the Beijing embassy cables have been released on the site so far."

Hmmm, wonder why they've got their Mao-shorts in a knot over this stuff.


"Contained in the cables are assertions that could make things awkward between China and the U.S., including suggestions that China ignored a U.S. request to stop transfers of ballistic missile technology Tehran and offered Kyrgyzstan $3 billion to close a U.S. airbase there.

Another cable, not yet released on the website but seen by the Guardian, quotes an unnamed source saying China’s Politburo—the powerful governing group within the Communist Party-–directed hacking attacks against Google after one of its members searched his own name on the U.S. company’s site and didn’t like what he saw."

Oh.

The Culture that is Australia: a story in two parts

Part One:

MELBOURNE, Australia – Two men were arrested after bewildered diners at a McDonald's spotted them wrestling a 5-foot (1.5 meter) python named Boris in the restaurant parking lot, police said Thursday. Victoria state police said the men stole the 8-year-old black-headed python and a lizard from a pet shop on Wednesday. They then brought the snake to the McDonald's parking lot, where they began wrestling with it in front of puzzled customers, police said.

Part Two:

SYDNEY (Reuters) – The cause of a mystery eye ailment that struck about 50 visitors to a dairy pavilion at an agricultural show in Australia has been traced -- to cow urine.
The Royal Adelaide Show had to close its dairy cattle pavilion after an rising number of people reported sore eyes when visiting the judging marquee.
Officials from the South Australia (SA) Health Department were called in to investigate and found the cause of the outbreak was stagnant cow urine.

The Queen must be so proud!

People who need people to the back of the bus!

It's been out for a while now, but I want to go on record as saying that "This is Happening" by LCD Soundsystem is an excellent recording. On a first listen, I didn't think maybe it was as good as "Sound of Silver", but after 5 listens, I think it is the best work James Murphy has done. Highly recommended.

Here's a bizarre video for the song "Drunk Girls":

Does "lossless" REALLY mean lossless?

People, here at Chez Angus we are on a campaign to remove clutter. Target #1 is our CD collection.

I may be late to this party, but it now appears to me that you can finally have a truly high quality music system with a computer as the source.

I have gotten an asynchronous USB DAC, a quiet laptop, and a 1T external drive to store the collection on (yes, I got a LOT a rippin' to do).

But I am torn over what format to store the files. WAV or AIFF are uncompressed so they should be bit perfect copies (you can rip using an error correction package), but they are HUGE and we have a fair amount (>1000) of CDs.

Apple Lossless or FLAC are compressed but allegedly no musical information is lost in the compression. This to me sounds like the free lunch I've been warned against lo these many years.

Any thoughts or suggestions folks?

I guess I will try making a couple copies of some favored CDs in each format and listen to them "blind" letting Mrs. A choose the type of file to play.

All Hail Greg Weeks

Greg puts a hammering on Chuck Schumer on Immigration reform.

Here's Schumer on meet the press:

MR. GREGORY: Senator Schumer, is immigration reform dead then?

SEN. SCHUMER: I don't think so. First, let's look at how desperately we need it. Fifteen thousand people cross our border illegally every day. Most of them take jobs from Americans. And yet, at the same time, there are certain people we need in this economy to help us grow, and we can't get them--engineers, doctors, farm workers. So the system is broken--it lets the wrong people in, excludes the wrong people--and so we need to fix it.

Now here's Greg on Schumer:

This is both inaccurate and unhelpful. "Most" illegal crossers do not take jobs away from Americans. But if Schumer believes they do, then it is not useful to say we "desperately" need them to take away those jobs. Overall, he seems to think the U.S. economy needs only a tiny fraction of the workforce that is attracted to it, which ignores demography and common sense. Which "wrong people" does he think are being let in?

In short, if Schumer is the point man for immigration reform, then it is in trouble.

Kudos, Sir!

Any boy with a microphone can tell you what he loves the most

Long term musical greatness

I was deep in my music collection last night playing "There's nothing wrong with love" by Built to Spill from 1994 and re-realized that the first four songs on that record are just astonishingly good. Then I realized that BTS is still good as of 2009 and never made a record that sucked. That's pretty rare, so I started trying to think of who else could fit that bill, limiting myself to American groups. Here's what I came up with:

Built to Spill

Luna

Spoon

People, that's it! That's the list!

Modest Mouse now officially sucks. 

The National has been good for a while and never made a record that sucks, but haven't done it long enough to qualify yet (they have a new album coming out soon!!), 

Neil Young was good for a long time but has gone on too long (not heeding his own advice), he's the musical equivalent of Willem de Kooning, only his family isn't destroying his late works. 

I love Guided by Voices, but I have to admit that a lot of what they did sucked. They are the musical equivalent of Picasso; lot's of very high highs but also lots of nasty lows. 

Nirvana didn't last long enough.

Who am I missing?

This....THIS is entertainment

This is REAL music.

And performance talent.

Angus's favorite music of 2009

To me, there was one release that stands above all others this year. "Bitte Orca" by Dirty Projectors totally knocked my socks off. It's just so f-ing triumphant! Here is a song from the album called "Cannibal Resource"

I also really liked "XX", by The XX. I think this is their debut album. Kind of Edwyn Collins meets Young Marble Giants (i.e. freaking tremendous).

Here's a sample:

Another fantastic release for 09 is "All My Friends are Funeral Singers" by Califone. I have this as double vinyl album and it sounds so incredibly good. Califone has been good for a long time, but they really stood out to me this year in particular. Here's the video for the song "Funeral singers".

Next is a definite guilty pleasure release. I mean, come on, these guys are soundtracking Cadillac commercials. I got it for Mrs. Angus and swore I wasn't going to like it, but Holy Crap!   ">"Wolfgang Amadeus Phoenix" by Phoenix is such a fun and practically perfect rock record, it totally won me over. Here's the video for "Liztomania":

The next picks are weird in that while they stand out from the rest of 09's releases, they are not quite as good as music by the same people from last year.

"Tarot Sport" by The F***k Buttons would be in my top picks except it's not as good as last year's "Street Horrrsing", which was my record of the year for 08.

Same for "Sometimes I Wish We Were an Eagle" by Bill Callahan. Stellar, but not as good as " Woke Up a Whaleheart" from 2008.

The last example of this phenomenon is "Blood Bank", the 2009 EP by Bon Iver which is awesome, but not as good as last year's "For Emma, Forever Ago".

People, could "Skinny Love" be the best song of the decade?

I also really enjoyed new releases by stalwart groups like Built to Spill's "There Is No Enemy" and Dinosaur Jr.'s "Farm".

The best live shows I saw this year were Built to Spill at the Diamond Ballroom in OKC, and Bill Callahan at the Granada Theater in Dallas

Turkey-Schmurky

In case any of y'all thought I was kidding about point #2 in my earlier post, here is a shot of my Thanksgiving dinner plate.

Homemade gnocchi with broccolini and tomatoes (click on the fotie for a larger view).



Life iz good.

We Get Letters: Confidence in Men

I have this friend, a young woman who graduated from Duke years ago, and now works in a large city in the Northeast. She sometimes tells me of her dating disasters, laughing ruefully at the latest apocalypse.

Here is a g-chat exchange we had, some months ago:

A: I'm afraid I go for the arrogant type
like that awful guy I told you about.
me: you think you can TAME them?
A: i dont want to;
at a certain point it's not worth it
me: how's that brilliant plan working out
A: not working out at ALL
me: so, what about the NICE guys, the quiet
A: they love me
and i dont give them a chance
it's bad
lots of them
me: well, yes, exactly.
A: oy.
you sound like my mother
i wish i could be attracted to them
i literally cant
it's a huge problem
me: can't fake it. not worth trying
A: you cant fake attraction
what's the point?
it is or it isn't
it's biological, chemical

Well, anyway, it struck me that there is an obvious explanation for why men are arrogant jerks. Women prefer men who are arrogant jerks. Women say they don't (though A, above, is honest enough to admit that she DOES prefer arrogant jerks), but they do.

So, the reason boys are more confident than girls is that girls want them to be, and choose mating partners based on confidence. Boys do NOT choose girls on this basis.

The point is that, as usual, women are in charge here. Don't blame the boys, we are just trying to please you ladies.

What Explains Boys’ Stronger Confidence in their Intelligence?

Ricarda Steinmayr & Birgit Spinath
Sex Roles, November 2009, Pages 736-749

Abstract:
This study investigated whether boys’ stronger confidence in their intelligence is explained by gender differences in measured intelligence and gender-stereotypical parental perceptions of their children’s intelligence. Verbal, numeric, figural, and reasoning intelligence and corresponding self-ratings were assessed for 496 German 11th and 12th graders (284 girls; age: M = 16.95). Parents also rated their children’s intelligence (339 parents; 205 mothers; age: M  = 46.66). With and without controlling for intelligence, boys rated their numerical, figural, and reasoning abilities higher than girls. The same pattern appeared in parental intelligence perceptions. Boys even judged themselves as more intelligent controlling for both measured intelligence and parental intelligence estimates. Thus, neither intelligence nor gender-stereotypical parental perceptions totally explains boys’ stronger confidence in their intelligence.

----------------------

The Evolution of Overconfidence

Dominic Johnson & James Fowler
University of California Working Paper, September 2009

Abstract:
Confidence is an essential ingredient of success in a wide range of domains including job performance, mental health, sports, business, and combat. Many authors have suggested that overconfidence -- defined here as believing you are better than you are in reality -- is advantageous because it serves to increase ambition, resolve, morale, persistence, and/or the bluffing of opponents. However, too much overconfidence can cause arrogance, market bubbles, financial collapses, policy failures, disasters, and wars, so it remains a puzzle how such a false belief could evolve or remain stable in a population of competing accurate beliefs. Here, we present an evolutionary model that shows overconfidence actually maximizes individual fitness and populations will tend to become overconfident, as long as the resources at stake during conflicts exceed twice the cost of competition. This is because overconfident individuals make more challenges when there is uncertainty about the strength of opponents (and thus the outcome of conflicts), while less confident individuals shy away from many conflicts they would win. Where the value of a prize is at least twice the cost of trying, overconfidence is the best strategy. The model suggests that the conditions under which humans would have evolved to have a "rational" unbiased view of their own capabilities are exceedingly rare, and it helps to explain why resource-rich environments can paradoxically create more conflict. Moreover, the fact that overconfident populations are evolutionarily stable may be one reason why overconfidence persists today in politics, business, and finance, even if it causes occasional disasters.

(Nod to Kevin L, who is very confident, for the article references)

(I couldn't find a video of Jack Palance saying, "Confidence is very sexy, don't you think?" But I wanted to)

(UPDATE: Commenter Adam Dynes comes up big. He's WAAAAY ahead of me. Check this out....)

The Culture that is Germany X

Man I love Reuters!

"German naturists will soon have their own 18-km (11-mile) long trail for hiking in the nude and some enthusiasts have been trying it out before the official opening next May.

Heinz Ludwig, who runs a nearby campsite, has led the project to create the nudist trail that meanders up and down the Harz mountain range in central Germany, overcoming some local protests by pointing out its potential boost for tourism.

"I think it's a great way to promote tourism here," Ludwig told Reuters on Tuesday after Bild newspaper published a picture of two women wearing nothing but rucksacks on the trail. "There's already been a lot of interest in it."

The trail runs between the village of Dankerode and the Wippertal dam. Naturism fans have been monitoring progress of the trail in Internet chatrooms for months and a band of naked hikers took a test walk on the not-quite-finished trail in May.

The trail is being marked with special signs warning the uninitiated that they could encounter nude hikers.

"If you don't want to see people with nothing on then you should refrain from moving on!," reads one warning sign."

When the guy says it will promote tourism, does he mean voyeuristic tourism, or that throngs of nudists will come hiking there?

RTL-Day Minus 10: What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

Dave Barry asks the question about the Samoan lane change, the one question we have all been asking: What could possibly go wrong?

Well, part of the answer is this: Some villages have refused to "go along." Switching models may work for regression; random switching doesn't work so well for games of coordination with multiple equilibria.

La Paz trumps Amsterdam!

by offering cocaine instead of mere marijuana in the drug tourism market.

That's right parents, be worried when you kid tells you they're going to do a semester abroad in Bolivia:

"Tonight we have two types of cocaine; normal for 100 Bolivianos a gram, and strong cocaine for 150 [Bolivianos] a gram." The waiter has just finished taking our drink order of two rum-and-Cokes here in La Paz, Bolivia, and as everybody in this bar knows, he is now offering the main course. The bottled water is on the house.

The waiter arrives at the table, lowers the tray and places an empty black CD case in the middle of the table. Next to the CD case are two straws and two little black packets. He is so casual he might as well be delivering a sandwich and fries. And he has seen it all. "We had some Australians; they stayed here for four days. They would take turns sleeping and the only time they left was to go to the ATM," says Roberto, who has worked at Route 36 (in its various locations) for the last six months. Behind the bar, he goes back to casually slicing straws into neat 8cm lengths.

Phone call for Rick James!!!

Who you got?

Tonight I turned off all the lights in the living room and was listening to Krishna Das in a peaceful reverie (while Mrs. A  was Wii boxing upstairs). Just me, Krishna, and the glow of my tube amp, when from nowhere it occurred to me: now that Nusrat Fateh Ali Khan, Desmond Dekker, Johnny Cash, and Ali Farka Toure are all recently passed on, I might be listening to the best voice living on the planet. 

Seriously, who are the other contenders? 

Van Morrison is up there, Youssou N'Dour, Bill Callahan, and maybe Kurt Wagner? Anyone else? Maybe Jamie Stewart? 

I am not talking about favorite singers or great musicians, but best voice (Probably my favorite singer who doesn't really have a great voice but can really bring spirit and emotion is John Prine).

How great is it to be able to listen to any of these voices whenever you want?

OK, 'nuff said. Back to Krishna Das!

    

That's nacho cheese

This graph is floating around the interwebs (click on image for a larger version):



It's from Daniel Wilson of the SF Fed who wrote a short piece entitled, "Are fiscal stimulus funds going to the "right" states?" He defines "right" as "have the funds been allocated in a way that maximizes their potential impact on national economic growth?"

Wilson says that the answer is basically yes.

My first reaction was to wonder what exactly is going on in Connecticut?

My second was to look at the fine print. Here is what I found.

(A) The stimulus is $787 billion. The graph covers $144 billion in the Fiscal Stabilization Fund and the Fiscal Relief Fund.

(B) The data in the graph are projected state deficits and estimated state allocations from the two funds. In other words, neither variable has actually happened yet! Both estimates come from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities

(C) 12 states are excluded from the graph.

(D) The regression line is from a population weighted least squares regression and all the piece says is that "The figure clearly shows a strong positive correlation between a state’s degree of fiscal strain and the amount of federal stimulus funds it is expected to receive", with no indication if "strong" means significant.

My third reaction was to remember Gavin Wright's classic 1974 RESTAT paper on the political economy of new deal spending where he claimed that a "political" model ex-plains between 58.7% and 79.6% of the variance in per capita spending over the whole period !"

If Team Obama can make the overall stimulus as economically well targeted as the above graph suggests one particular chunk of it might turn out to be, that would be progress indeed.

Hat tips to Bob Tollison and Menzie Chinn