AP's Old News

In this report, we read:

For the past 25 years, the international community has supported the establishment of a Palestinian state on the West Bank, east Jerusalem and the Gaza Strip — lands captured by Israel in the 1967 Mideast war — as the best way to ensure peace in the region.

The logic is clear. With the number of Arabs living on lands controlled by Israel roughly equal to Jews, and the Arab population growing faster, two-state proponents say a partition of the land is the only way to guarantee Israel’s future as a democracy with a strong Jewish majority. The alternative, they say, is either a binational state in which a democratic Israel loses its Jewish character or an apartheid-like entity in which Jews have more rights than Arabs.

It also appeared in the NY Times. 

Let's clear this up, with facts.

The international community supported the establishment of an "Arab State" in the West Bank Judea and Samaria, note: not specifically "Palestine", in 1947 with the UN partition recommendation. The Arabs refused that, just as they refused the 1937 Peel Commission suggestion of partition and just as the first partition, when historic Palestine was truncated and its eastern regions were separated from the League of Nations original mandate plan and awarded to a recent arrival from Saudi Arabia. Moreover, Jewish settlements rights were disallowed in those areas while Arabs could continue to live in and come to the Jewish section of Palestine.

Furthermore, given the record of all lands yielded up or surrendered by Israel of the territories it gained in 1967 have been used as bases for hostile terror attacks, especially Gaza from which Israel supposedly "disengaged". To provide the Arabs with more such bases is quite the opposite of peace.

There is no logic in a two-state solution.

The so-called "demographic threat" is not as portrayed. The figures are actually in favor of the Jewish population.  But really. I detailed sources here. And you can search this blog going back over decade (using "demography", "demographic threat").

As for "democracy", if Arabs, or for that matter any non-Jewish minority, seek to de-Judaize the Jewish state, well, there are safeguards for that, or there will be. Otherwise, if all Jews need to exit the proposed state of "Palestine", why not all the Arabs exist Israel? Not that I am suggesting that but just pointing to the illogical thinking of some people who only care about Arabs.

The Jewish character need not be "lost" without a strong Jewish majority.  And, by the way, what is a "strong Jewish majority"? Is it 80%? 75%? 70%? 60%? What, indeed, is the cut-off? Or, what is Jewish? Do we have to regard all those who claim to be Jews as Jews? And what about the non-Jewish non-Arabs, the foreign migrant worker community? Are they a factor?

Of course, all this avoids the central issue: is the Arab conflict with Israel and Zionism one of territory or is it existential? That is, will the Arabs honestly and genuinely accept a Jewish state in any territory they consider Islamic? Do they recognize Jewish national identity?

Will Jews accept a state without Jerusalem in its entirety?

AP reporting still stuck in the past.

^

Demography Demonology Dead?

Israel, we have lectured to for five decades, cannot maintain its rule over Judea and Samaria because there are too many Arabs.  It started in government deliberations in the months after the 1967 Six Days War and continued until today.

Or yesterday.

Here's the Haaretz report by Amira Hass:

Lebanon Census Finds Number of Palestinian Refugees Only a Third of Official UN Data

A census in Lebanon finds 175,000 Palestinian refugees living in the country, while the UN figure put their number at 500,000

Fox News via Associated Press:

Census shows there are 174,422 Palestinians in Lebanon

BEIRUT –  The first official census of Palestinian refugees in Lebanon has revealed that there are 174,422 Palestinians now living in Lebanon, a figure almost two thirds less than previously estimated.

The Jewish Press asks:

 How Did Lebanon Misplace a Quarter-Million ‘Palestinians’?

A based-in-England Arab outlet spins it this way:

Palestinians in Lebanon less than half previous estimate, census shows

Palestinian leaders believe revelation of fewer Palestinians in the country should encourage politicians to improve their conditions

And further informs that the

UNRWA welcomed the census and will be able to better plan its programmes with the “updated and accurate information...Now we will have scientific data in hand,” 

And details the method:

The census was conducted by the Lebanese Central Administration of Statistics and the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics under the umbrella of the Lebanese Palestinian Dialogue Committee, a group formed by the Lebanese government to study and propose policies related to the Palestinian population.

Hundreds of Palestinian and Lebanese youth went from house to house with tablet computers to conduct the count, and the data was then linked to the location of the dwellings using a geographic information system, Director-General of the Lebanese Central Administration of Statistics Maral Tutelian Guidanian said.

The point is that

The census contradicts earlier estimates of more than 450,000 Palestinian refugees in Lebanon.

According to the official Palestinian Authority's population data, there were  2,935,368 Arabs residing in the territory they call the 'West Bank' at the end of 2016.

If we apply the Lebanese Theorem Principle, there are probably under 2,000,000 Arabs in that area in actuality.

We know that the data show that in 2015 24.4% of the West Bank population are refugees while 68.5% of Gaza Strip population are refugees.

We also know the emigration figures are high as findings show that 23.6% of youth (15-29 years) in Palestine desire to migrate abroad.

We know the birth rate and fertility is low.  We know the growth rate is low. 

And now via Lebanon we know they cheat at statistics.

It would seem the Demography Threat is not as bad as it is portrayed.

_____________

Yoram Ettinger, who has been on this issue for years,  just wrote me that his data indicates but 1.85 million Arabs living in Judea and Samaria.

Yakov Faitelson is also exact in details on this matter and accuses the Pal. Authority of hiding data.

Ian Lustick who has jettisoned the Two-State Solution long ago ("Dead Plan Walking"), and again just recently, and who believes that the "paths to political decisions in Israel and the United States that could result in that outcome via negotiations are so implausible that the negotiations themselves end up protecting and deepening oppressive conditions", has argued that population data is being manipulated - by Zionists. Who is been manipulating really?

^

How Many Revenant Residents Are There?

According to B'tselem's current web site entry, the number of Jewish Israelis residing beyond the Green Line, a category they term "settlers", is

an estimated 588,000...This figure is derived from two sources: According to data provided by Israel’s Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS), at the end of 2015, 382,916 people were living in the settlements of the West Bank, excluding East Jerusalem. According to data provided by the Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies, the population of the Israeli neighborhoods in East Jerusalem numbered 205,220 people at the end of 2014.

However, as they note, the annual population increase of that population is 4.1%.

My calculation is that increase would be around 23,500 people. Two years have passed and so 588,000 + 47,000 (23,500 x 2) = 635,000. Correct? 

Peace Now's figures are 399, 300 in Judea and Samaria at end of 2016. And in "East Jerusalem" (what do they do with Jewish neighborhoods constructed since 1967 in the north and south of the city?) live 208,410 Jews.  That totals to 607,710. We then add 23,500 and that equals 631,210. Correct?

The Yesha Council lists 421,400 Israeli residents in the area as of January 2017, but excluding post-1967 Jerusalem neighborhoods.  An average of B'tselem's figure and Peace Now's figure for Jerusalem would be 206,815 and, added to the above number, would total 628,215. We'll leave the extra population figure off.

An average of those three figures results in 631,475.

So, in another two months, we can expect the number of Jewish Israelis residing in regions of the historic Jewish homeland not as yet under full Israel sovereignty to total, in my estimation, at least 640,000.

Ken yirbu ( & tfoo-tfoo)

____________________

Now I have to figure what percentage the Jewish Israelis are of the total population.  Off my head, in Judea and Samaria, that would be 20% approximately.

^

Kerry's "Jewish" and "Democratic" State

In his remarks on December 28, 2016, John Kerry, United States Secretary of State addressed the Arab-Israel conflict and the lack the the achievement of peace.

Paying close attention to his words, I noticed that he mentioned the term "Jewish" twelve times and "democratic" nine times and together, as the "Jewish and democratic state", twice and once as "Jewish democratic".

I picked them out:

That’s what we were standing up for: Israel’s future as a Jewish and democratic state

if the choice is one state, Israel can either be Jewish or democratic – it cannot be both – and it won’t ever really be at peace. 

Is ours the generation that gives up on the dream of a Jewish democratic state of Israel living in peace and security with its neighbors? Because that is really what is at stake.

And here are mention of Israel's Jewish identity:

Israelis are fully justified in decrying attempts to legitimize [sic. that should be delegitimize'] their state and question the right of a Jewish state to exist.

Nearly 70 years ago, United Nations General Assembly Resolution 181 finally paved the way to making the State of Israel a reality. The concept was simple: to create two states for two peoples – one Jewish, one Arab – to realize the national aspirations of both Jews and Palestinians. 

Principle two: Fulfill the vision of the UN General Assembly Resolution 181 of two states for two peoples, one Jewish and one Arab

Recognition of Israel as a Jewish state has been the U.S. position for years

That’s why it is so important that in recognizing each other’s homeland – Israel for the Jewish people and Palestine for the Palestinian people – both sides reaffirm their commitment to upholding full equal rights for all of their respective citizens.

There is one odd, even strange, use of 'democratic':

And we understand that in a final status agreement, certain settlements would become part of Israel to account for the changes that have taken place over the last 49 years – we understand that – including the new democratic demographic realities that exist on the ground. 

That, I think could be a result of Kerry's meandering of mind and tongue although it could indicate that Kerry is quite well aware that the decisions to revitalize Jewish life in the historic regions of the Jewish homeland was done through a very democratic process in that election after election, governments were established, except in very short time periods, that all supported, encouraged and engaged in activities that increased the Jewish population in Judea and Samaria and, until 2005, in Gaza as well.

Incidentally, refugees are mentioned in a formulation that actually disengages the issue from the existence of Israel in this way:

Provide for a just, agreed, fair, and realistic solution to the Palestinian refugee issue, with international assistance, that includes compensation, options and assistance in finding permanent homes, acknowledgment of suffering, and other measures necessary for a comprehensive resolution consistent with two states for two peoples...The international community can provide significant support and assistance. I know we are prepared to do that, including in raising money to help ensure the compensation and other needs of the refugees

That set off the PLO's Executive Committee member Hanan Ashrawi who declared on television: 

"The six principles that [US Secretary of State John] Kerry presented are undeniable Zionist principles that serve Israeli interests...he said 'a Jewish state,' giving them [Israel] a great prize. We have refused and still refuse to say that Israel is a Jewish state... Even on the issue of the refugees, he [Kerry] automatically denied them the right of return, and said that it is necessary to reach a just solution of compensation and resettling and the like. In other words, there is no right of return."  [Official PA TV, State of Politics, Jan. 3, 2017]

Of course, Jewish refugees were not included in his speech.

But getting back to the issue of Kerry deciding for Israel what "Jewish" and "democratic" mean and why they are important, we can note there also her words

he said 'a Jewish state,' giving them [Israel] a great prize

Prize?  Or a simple recognition of what Israel is?

On January 6, in an interview, Kerry returned to that matter and expounded:

I believe in the state of Israel’s dream to be the democracy and the Jewish state it wants to be. But the simple reality is you cannot be a unitary, one state, with more non-Jews than Jews and remain a democracy or a Jewish state. It’s impossible. You can’t do it. David, Ben Gurion, the first president of Israel, said that. Rabin said it... moving towards a single state without resolving this two-state issue, which is why everybody has supported it until today, is leading Israel to a very dangerous place of perpetual conflict and it will not be a Jewish state.

Besides being contradicted by Ashrawi, I would wish to point out the chutzpah of someone defining for us Jews what is 'Jewish" and how that state is to be as a 'democratic' one.  I am sure Kerry is predicating himself of J Street's ideology, among other left-wing Jewish groups, as well as Peter Beinart's thinking, most more radical than the next.

I could argue that the demographic outlook is not as Kerry thinks it is and that his projected minority status or threatened minority status are in error.

But is think it could be summed up so:

Dear American Jewish Liberal-Progressives:

You Can Be Either Jewish

or Liberal.

You Cannot Be Both.

Let's make that a poster:

Of course, that is as true as they intend their slogan of "Israel can either be Jewish or democratic – it cannot be both" is.  They cannot have it both ways.

They have moved far off the Jewish quotient scale and have supplanted their liberalism, what is actually a universal assimilationist progressivism, as have Jews before them, for a foreign ideology which is destructive to Zionism, the Jewish national movement.

Those who join them risk losing their Judaism, no matter how they define it in practical religious terms.  They are 'lost at sea'.  They do not realize, or refuse to do so or worse, reject, that Israel and its Zionism is their anchor.

______________

Tangentally, here is Melanie Phillips on "Real liberals must shun Palestinian colonialism".

And something similar.

^

Illegal Immigration from Gaza (UPDATED)

Thanks to TN, I can now inform you that the Gazans allowed to travel to Jerusalem to pray at the Haram A-Sharif (here) not only have been benefiting from a privilege that I do not think they deserve, one that is not granted to a Jew, especially as they come from a Hamas regime area, but as the Civil Administration admits, they are taking advantage of and sneaking off to the Galilee and other places to remain in Israel.

(see Update below)

Here's one post:

Here's a news item that I see confirms:

More than 200 Palestinians from the besieged Gaza Strip traveled to occupied East Jerusalem on Friday to attend prayers at the Al-Aqsa Mosque, according to Palestinian liaison officials...The number of Palestinians permitted to worship at Al-Aqsa was reduced by Israel earlier this year...A spokesperson for the Coordination of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT), the Israeli agency responsible for implementing Israeli policies in the occupied Palestinian territory, told Ma'an at the time that Israeli authorities decided to reduce the quota of permits for Palestinians to travel to the Al-Aqsa Mosque for prayers as a result of Hamas and other groups "choosing to use the crossing permits given to them illegally."

Illegally?

We are increasing our demographic imbalance (not to mention potential future terror activities) - and for prayer privileges that Jews cannot enjoy?

Maybe you'd like to discuss this matter with them?

Public Ombudsman at the Unit's HQ and the Civil Administration
Telephone: 03-6977957
Fax: 03-6975177

Civil Administration: 

Telephone: 02-9977001
Fax: 02-9977341

Social Media
Twitter: https://twitter.com/cogat_israel

Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/cogat.israel

Or with your favorite MK?

___________________________

UPDATE:
(h/t=IMRA)

Israel cancels permits for elderly Gazans traveling to Al-Aqsa for Friday prayers

GAZA CITY (Ma'an) - Israeli authorities cancelled weekly permits allowing elderly Gazans to travel to occupied East Jerusalem on Fridays to attend prayers at Al-Aqsa Mosque.

An official at the Palestinian liaison office told Ma’an that Israeli authorities decided to cancel the weekly visits of Palestinians in Gaza to Jerusalem's Al-Aqsa Mosque due to Palestinian worshipers not returning directly back to the Gaza Strip after prayers, in violation of the permit conditions.

However, the official added that Israel would continue to permit 100 Palestinians who are UNRWA employees, the UN agency responsible for providing services to some five million Palestinian refugees, to travel to Al-Aqsa for prayers.

Second UPDATE

100 UNRWA employees travel from Gaza Strip to attend prayers at Al-AqsaDec. 9, 2016 11:08 A.M. 

GAZA CITY (Ma'an) -- One hundred employees of UNRWA, the UN agency responsible for providing services to some five million Palestinian refugees around the Middle East, traveled from the besieged Gaza Strip to occupied East Jerusalem to perform Friday prayers at the Al-Aqsa Mosque, as Israeli authorities cancelled the permits of 150 other Palestinians typically permitted to pray at the holy site.


Palestinian liaison officials told Ma’an that 100 UNRWA employees traveled via the Erez borader crossing between the coastal enclave and Israel to travel to the Al-Aqsa Mosque, and added that the 150 Palestinians whose permits are arranged by Gaza’s Civil Affairs Committee were prevented from attending prayers, as Israeli authorities have continuously accused Palestinians of not returning to the Gaza Strip immediately following the visit.


A spokesperson for COGAT, the Israeli agency responsible for implementing Israeli policies in the occupied Palestinian territory, told Ma'an that the permits were cancelled as a result of "many [Palestinians] exploiting the permits and staying illegally in Israel."


"In spite of the agreements with the Palestinian side, Gaza residents have continued to exploit the permits and so it was decided to reduce the amount of permits given for travel to Jerusalem Fridays, in a similar step that was taken a few weeks ago," the statement continued, adding that "we will not allow for this abuse of Israel's civil policy to continue."

^ 

"People"

According to B'tselem, at the end of 2013 there were  

350,010 people were living in the settlements residency communities of the West Bank Judea and Samaria excluding East Jerusalem. According to data provided by the Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies, the population of the Israeli neighborhoods in East Jerusalem numbered 196,890 people at the end of 2012.

That adds up to 546,900.

With an annual growth rate at that time of  4.4% and 1.9% percent, respectively, they assert that there are

an estimated 547,000 [?] settlers in the West Bank Judea and Samaria

as of last May.

So, at the end of next month, that figure could be close to 575,000.  And the post-1967 neighborhoods of Jerusalem would be perhaps 205,000.  If I took errors into consideration, in favor of the Jewish population, the number of Jews beyond the Green Line is approaching 800,000.

That's a lot of 'people'.

^

Improving A Demographic Instagram

You've seen this?

(Click to enlarge)

Well, don't forget the ethnic cleansing of Jews in Yesha 1920-1948.

Jews lived in Hebron, Nablus, Gaza. Jerusalem's Old City, Kfar Shiloach, Atarot, Neveh Yaakov, Bet HaAravah, Kfar Etzion, Ein Tzurim, Revadim, Masu'ot Yitzhak, and other locations from where they were expelled after undergoing a period of rioters and pogroms and terror for the 30 years of the British Mandate. Some families were residing there for centuries.

I do know that upwards of 17,000 Jews were considered refugees after 1948 for a few years and aided by UNRWA. How many were in those areas and had left earlier, after the 1920, 1921, 1929 and 1936-1939 riots, is a daunting accounting task.

In any case, between 1948 and 1967, the number of Jews living in Judea, Samaria and Gaza was ... 0. Zero.

Oh. and by the way:

Statistics published in the Palestine Royal Commission Report (p. 279) indicate a remarkable phenomenon: Palestine, traditionally a country of Arab emigration, became after World War I a country of Arab immigration. In addition to recorded figures for 1920-36, the Report devotes a special section to illegal Arab immigration. While there are no precise totals on the extent of Arab immigration between the two World Wars, estimates vary between 60,000 and 100,000. The principal cause of the change of direction was Jewish development, which created new and attractive work opportunities and, in general, a standard of living previously unknown in the Middle East. Another major factor in the rapid growth of the Arab population was, of course, the rate of natural increase, among the highest in the world. This was accentuated by the steady reduction of the previously high infant mortality rate as a result of the improved health and sanitary conditions introduced by the Jews. Altogether, the non-Jewish element in Palestine's population (not including Bedouin) expanded between 1922 and 1929 alone by more than 75 per cent.

^

Demography Figures

I read this:

RAMALLAH, December 29, 2014 (WAFA) – The number of Palestinians and Israelis is expected to reach about 6.4 million each by the end of 2016, with the number of Palestinians in historical Palestine (including Israel) amounting to a total of 7.2 million compared to 6.9 Israelis by the end of 2020, according to the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics’ report released Monday.

...PCBS’s report stated that the number of Palestinians in historical Palestine estimated at 5.9 million by the end of 2013 is expected to exceed the total number of Israelis by the year 2020 if the current growth rates persist.

...A total of 4,550,368 million Palestinians live in the West bank...Meanwhile in Gaza...around 1,760,037 Palestinians remain...


a. According to Yakov Faitelson, the number of Arabs in Judea and Samaria is 1.5 million.

Moreover,

According to the CIA FACTBOOK publications, the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of the Arabs of Judea and Samaria fell down to 2.83 child per woman in 2014, compared with 5.70 child per woman in 1994. The TFR of Arabs had reduced more than by 50% in less than one generation.

b. According to Yoram Ettinger,

in Judea and Samaria, there are 1.7 Arabs as of 2013 (probably 1.74 in 2014) and 1.4 in Gaza (probably 1.45 in 2014).

and more here.

^

The 'Demogs' of the Demography

In Issue 482 of the Yesha Council's official weekly bulletin, "Yesha Shelanu", some numbers were released regarding the new school year.

First of all, the total population of Judea and Samaria's Jewish communities has passed 382,000 with 7,600 being added during the first half of 2014.

As for schoolchildren and education, there are 1400 educational institutions from kindergartens to high schools.

One example, in the Binyamin Regional Council, there were 20 new kindergartens and 15 new grade one classes.  In Shomron, 11 new kindergartens and three new grade one classes.  In Gush Etzion, 5 new kindergartens and five new grade one classes.

Some more; 60 kindergartens are operating in Efrat.  In Alfei Menasheh, 516 kindergarten pupils.  In Har Hebron, 1451 primary school children.  In Karnei Shomron, grade one classes opened up with 170 pupils.  Om Elkana, 8 new kindergarten classes were opened.  In Ariel, 213 children entered grade one.  In Bet El, there are 18 kindergartens.

The 'demogs' of the demography.

^

The Not So Wonderful Tom Friedman (Who's In A Spin)

An excerpt from a Tom Friedman column this week:

The PowerPoint maps that Israeli military briefers use for Sinai, Gaza, Lebanon and Syria today consist of multicolored circles, and inside each are clusters of different armed groups. Israel is like a Petri dish of the new world, with nonstate actors, armed with rockets, dressed as civilians and nested among civilians on four out of its five borders: Sinai, Gaza, Lebanon and Syria.

I understand why all this makes even some moderate Israeli military leaders more wary about any West Bank withdrawal. But the status quo is not neutral. Israel needs to do all it can to avoid turning itself into a kind of forced binational state — with a hostile minority in its belly — by permanently holding onto the West Bank and its 2.5 million Palestinians. 

I added this comment:

If indeed the "status quo is not neutral", and if indeed, Mr. Friedman understands "why all this [Islamic terror groups] makes even some moderate Israeli military leaders more wary about any West Bank withdrawal", then why not assume that the staus quo could move one way and not another?  That to withdraw would be inviting danger, encouraging terror and ultimately, with more narrow and relatively - given the vast technological advances in weaponery since 1967 - indefensible borders, would prove to be silly and, if Friedman insist on this solutiuon, bad advice?
Is this so wonderful?

And that 2.5 million figure?

It's wrong.

My friend Yakov Faitelson:

...The Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics' demographic data arrived at its data not through objective scientific inquiry but rather by overstating the size of the Arab population residing in the territories administered by the Palestinian Authority...far from doubling, Arab fertility and natural increase are decreasing following the demographic transition rules.

Careful demographic analysis, however, should lead to a conclusion in stark contrast to the demographic time bomb thesis. The natural increase of the Jewish population in Israel—that is, its yearly birth rate less its yearly death rate—stabilized thirty years ago and, since 2002, has even begun to grow. The natural increase of the total Arab population, comprising both Israeli Arabs and the Arabs of the West Bank and Gaza, continues to descend toward convergence with the Jewish population, probably in the latter half of this century.

The data, moreover, point to rising levels of Arab emigration, particularly among young people...

The misuse of demography has been one of the most prominent, yet unexamined, aspects of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Many Israelis have so thoroughly absorbed the repeated claims of a diminishing Jewish majority that they do not consider whether their conventional wisdom is false. Before an accurate demographic picture of Israel and the Palestinian territories trickles down to the consciousness of the residents of the region, it must first be understood by Israeli and Palestinian policymakers, academics, and journalists, who need accurate, factual information to do their jobs. The impact on the conflict of such a development would be substantial.

And this from last year.  And a previous discussion.  According to Yoram Ettinger, 

Jews make up 66 percent of the population between the river and the sea. And due to the change in birthrates, this majority is stable. "There is no Arab time bomb, there is a Jewish tailwind," he said.

Friedman's in a spin.

P.S.:-

P.P.S.

My comment is in.


^

Jews in Jenin?

Well, in 1888, the Reverend James Kean was in Jenin * and in his 1893 book, "Among the Holy Places", p. 214-215 we can read this:

There were Jews there in various historical periods:

First called Gina, a site of a battle between Egypt and Het, it is mentioned twice in the Amarna Letters.  It became a Levite city, Ein-Ganim, as recorded in Joshua 19:21.  Ishtori Ha-Parhi, who lived in the Eretz-Yisrael in the first quarter of the 14th century, mentions Jenin (Chapt. 11).  Josephus (Wars 3:4) notes that "Now as to the country of Samaria, it lies between Judea and Galilee; it begins at a village that is in the great plain called Ginea (or Ginia)" and Ginai is mentioned in the Jerusalem Talmud (Shekalim 7:2).  Jews resided in Jenin during the 16^th & 17^th centuries.  In 1583, the Polish-Lithuanian Prince Nicholas Christopher Radziwill of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania toured the country and noted Jews as living there as possibly did a French doctor, Gabriel le Bremond, who was at Tanin which was a misspelling of Jenin in 1643.  Rabbi Yosef Matrani of Jerusalem had visited the Jewish community there on visits in 1593 and 1602. In 1885, a Jewish blacksmith was in the town and in 1889, a Jewish tailor and two brothers who conducted business in grains loved there.  In 1888, a Jewish shoemaker was in Jenin.

In 1891, the "For Zion" society's representative, Mordechai Edelman, purchased property and land there and eight Jewish familes arrived to take up residence, together with a ritual slaughterer and a melamed.  However, an outbreak of an infectious disease the following year caused them to flee to a healthier location.

During the Mandate period, Jews worked in the area on the main road development as well as an army camp during 1921-1922 and lived at a site near the town and when its Tegart police station was built, 1939-1941, some 70 Jewish construction workers lived by the town (in previous years, Jewish policemen were based there at the previous station house such as Yosef Hirsch and Yosef Mabati). On January 27, 1922, Masha and Eliezer Perlson were married the workers' camp outside Jenin.  In 1929, two Jewish families joined, Goldstein and Lieber, joined the husbands who were policemen and they were extracted from the town when the riots broke out in August.

In the 1931 British census, four (or 2) Jewish residents were counted (in 1922, there were 7) and in 1936, Ladislas Farago, in his book, notes on p. 22 that 7 Jews were living there among 2500 Arabs. By the way, that census counted 3 Jews (2 males and a female) in Khan Yunis, 1 in Gaza, 1 in Majdal, 2 in Yibne, 5 in Beer Sheba, 28 in Lydda, 5 in Ramle, 135 in Hebron, 1 in Bet Jala, 39 in Bethlehem, etc.

Oh, between 1948 - 1967, there were no Jews in or near Jenin.  

Why?

Arabs ruled the area.

____________

*

Here's a mention of Shiloh, which was desolate at the time:

Based on
עין גנים, ההיסטוריה היהודית בג'נין
מאת אהרן אורבך ועמיחי מרחביה
ירושלים, התשס"ה

^

Playing the Numbers

The Jewish population of Judea and Samaria grew by 2.12%, down from 2.25%, in the last six months – faster than the rate of Jewish population growth in the rest of Israel, which is 1.9% annually, reports Israel Hayom.

The Jewish population of Judea and Samaria currently numbers 367,000. In the last six months, this number grew by 7,700, including immigrants and births.

^

Faitelson Responds to Lustick on the Demographic Threat

At this previous post, I related to the new article on demography in Israel, from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea, that is, the state of Israel as well as the regions of Judea and Samaria.  Written by Prof. Ian Lustick, it seeks to undermine the recent prognostications that the so-called "Demographic Threat", that a Jewish minority is the result of the continued administration of the territories, and for sure their incorporation into Israel proper.

I alerted some of the persons involved and one, Yaakov Faitelson, has sent me the following article as a first response.

I am proud to serve as a platform for the discussion of the issue.

________________________________

I will not respond on the same level of the “quality” of Ian Lustick. He  continues simply to use and to manipulate the same sources such as Arnon Sofer, Sergio DellaPergola and others, despite the fact that their demographic projections and estimates published during last 30 years had crashed to the dust. 

Twenty-six years ago  I was cited by Dan Petreanu in his article "Demography: Men or Myth" published by Jerusalem Post  in August 16, 1987: "But neither Arab population, says Faitelson, will become a majority, because the decline in the Arab death rate in the administrated territories will soon reach a plateau, whereas their birth rate will continue to fall. Thus, their rate of natural increase will decline while that of the Jews will increase slightly". And further: "Faitelson predicts that the Israeli Arabs rate of increase will eventually reach that of the Jews - today about 1.4 per cent - around the first decade of the next century, followed about 10 years later by that of the Arabs in the territories".

The natural increase of the Jews in 2012 was 1.52% which was 14.3% higher than in 1987 and  27.4% higher than in 2000. The Arabs natural Increase was 2.19% which was 21% lower than in 1987, but 33.7% lower than in 2000. The number of the Jewish Live Births was 125,492 in 2012, 77.2% higher than in 1987, while there were 40,080 Arab Live Birth, 58.2% higher than in 1987.

But here one must take a look at the dynamics of the demographic development: the number of the Jewish Live births in 2012 was  36.5% higher than in 2000, while it was  1% lower for the Arabs. Actually, the number of the Arab Live birth has stabilized at around 40,000 during all the past12  years. The Arab Baby Boomers of the 1960s are about 50 years old already. It means that Arab Death rate started to grow, accelerating it towards the average level of the Jewish Death rate. It will sharply influence the Arab Natural increase rate making its decline even faster in the coming years. 

During the same period , the Jewish Natural Increase rate had been stabilized  for the last 45 years and in 2012 it is almost the same, 1.52%, as it was in 1962 which was 1.55%. Taking into consideration the continuous annual addition of immigrants to the development of the Jewish Natural Increase will explain why the heralded “Demographic Doomsday” never came about and , I claim,definitely will not come in the future.

Taking in consideration the demographic development in Judea, Samaria and Gaza Strip, I usually compare the estimates of the Palestinians themselves and of the US Census Bureau.
It is clear for everyone, that all demographers agree that the Arab growth rate is decreasing steadily. I believe that even Lustick had paid attention to such well-known fact. Even while the US Census Bureau takes as their estimate that the migration balance from the Judea, Samaria and Gaza strip as 0, it still shows the decrease of the natural increase in Judea and Samaria from 3.01% in 2002 to 2.05 in 2012, 16.7% less in one decade. The  picture is similar regarding the Gaza Strip - 14.5% less, from 3.58 to 3.06.

In comparison,, the natural increase of the Arabs of Israel declined by 26.8%, while the Jewish natural increase rose by 27.5% during the same time period of 2002-2012.

The Head of Demographic Department of the ICBS, Dr. Ahmad Hleihel, had admitted that the ICBS assumptions regarding  demographic developments of the Jewish and Arab citizens of Israel were mistaken.  "Ma'ariv" journalist Rotem Sela quoted him in his article published on 27.7. 2011:  "We were mistaken in assessing the increase in the Jewish fertility, and on the other hand, the rate at which Arab fertility declined. I believe that the Arab population's fertility will continue to fall in the direction of 2-3 children".  This conclusion of Dr. Hleihel actually confirmed the conclusions I made and published already 26 years ago.

Now regarding  Aliya and emigration.

In the same Dan Petreanu article, Arnon Sofer was quoted saying as follows: "So, without even considering future birth rates, to make up one percentage point today we need an additional 170,000 Jews. Who among us really expects that sort of Aliya in the near future". 

As everyone can understand now, even Lustick, I can suppose, the facts were quite different. The failure to properly assess the ongoing developments in the Soviet Union of 1987 was a cause of huge surprise not only for Sofer...

Actually, the same failure of understanding of the current potential of Jewish Aliya  can be seen now, if  the rising new wave of the anti-Semitism in Europe, Latin America, etc., combined with the world economic crisis, is ignored or downplayed.

Attempting to manipulate the numbers of the Jewish emigrants from Israel is also a failure. According to the ICBS the emigration rate from Israel is now on the lowest level in all 65 years of the Jewish State existence.

Some remarks regarding Lustick's argumentation as to  my forecasts from 2007 for the possible growth of the Jewish population in Israel and the Jewish Aliya to Israel till 2050 are in order.

I presumed that the natural increase will continue to be 1.27% and, together with  Aliya numbers, the annual increase would have been 1.42%.

Lustick wrote that my assumption made in 2007 that there will be Aliya of 10,000 Jews annually till 2050 is not real. Let's see what really happened during the years of 2007-2012.

The annual increase of the Jewish population was 1.83%, which was a 28.9% increase, higher than my own assumption.

The total number of new immigrants during this time period was about 86,000 or more than 14,300 annually. That represents a figure 43% higher than my assumption.

In my paper published by the IZS I had predicted that the Jewish population of Israel in 2012 will reach 5,878,820 people and  the Arab population would be 1,614,415. Actually, in 2012 there were 6,014.100 Jews (a 2.3% increase above that  projection) and 1,648,400 Arabs (2.1% more than what I projected). In any case, my mistake was just little bit higher than 2%, which is only a half of the 4%  statistical error factor.

I will not relate to  the facts about the increased Jewish population. It appears to be more a moral problem for such persons like Lustick than a demographic problem of the Jewish State. It is enough for me that Prof. Sofer who only in 2002 talked about the demographic danger caused in State of Israel by”Arabs, Russians and Moldavian prostitutes", has changed his opinion and now declares that the members of the mixed families of the repatriates from the Former Soviet Union are a part of the Zionist majority in the State of Israel. It took him a lot of time and rivers of the young soldiers’ blood spilled on defense for Israel to understand it. 

However, also Prof. Sergio DellaPergola has different approach now to the definition ‘who is a Jew. As he had written in his paper, "Jewish Demographic Policies", published by the Jewish People Policy Institute in 2011: "It seems that ways must be found to include and ‘embrace’ this population within the Jewish community, especially those who have integrated into the country, and whose children are in the school system and are serving in the IDF".   It couldn’t be better stated.

And finally, for such a short note, let's now see what the Arab demographers, researches and journalists say when they work for the international institutions and what they are publishing in Arabic. Here just some examples from many:

According to Mustafa Khawaja,Director of Jerusalem Statistical Department, Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics: "The net balance of arrivals and departures for the West Bank in the period 1967 to the present has been consistently negative, with an average of about 10,000 leaving annually… the main reason for migration by Palestinians relates to the economic factors resulting from the political instability and the infighting between the Palestinian parties" as quoted from his work published by the Robert Shuman Centre for Advanced Studies, San Domenico di Fiesole (FI): European University Institute, 2010.

Khaled Abu Toameh, "80,000 Palestinians emigrated from territories since beginning of year (a rise of 50 percent compared to last year), a senior Palestinian Authority official said Monday. The official, who asked not to be named, told The Jerusalem Post another 50,000 Palestinians are now trying to leave through the Jordan River bridges and the Rafah border crossing".  Jerusalem Post, Aug. 26, 2002.

The Egyptian journalist Bissan Edwan, published on April 16, 2004 the article in Arabic  "Demographic bomb in Israel and the self-deception" this data: "According to Jordan statistics, at least 150 thousand Palestinians left the West Bank during the intifada years from 2000 to 2002 and did not return". 

Bissan Edwan comes to the conclusion that the economic situation in the Palestinian Authority causes the possibility of new waves of large emigration as it had happened during the Intifada. Bissan Edwan writes that the demographic factor will play a limited and marginal role in the future of the conflict. She mentions that the Jewish net migration was able to maintain a significant Jewish majority of the population in Israel and that the results of the higher Palestinian natural increase vanish because of the high rates of emigration, the increasing mortality and the successful programs of birth control that help lowering Palestinian fertility rates.

There are a lot of facts that I bring in my papers to establish my case based on the international official Data bases and the researches of the Arab and other demographers, including the PCBS. It is difficult to somebody who isn't looking for truth to follow it. But this is an acknowledged fact by every objective researcher that the Arab and Muslim fertility is fast decreasing, not only in the Land of Israel, but across the countries in the Middle East. Another fact is that Jewish fertility is stabilized with some significant increase (temporarily, in my opinion, until, that is, the large part of the Jewish population will be finally absorbed in the Israeli nation) during the 2 last decades. The Arab TFR in Judea and Samaria is already equal to the Jews in general, the Israeli Arabs TFR is decreasing towards convergence with Jewish and even the Arabs of Gaza Strip are on their way to the same direction.

It needs a higher moral level and integrity to be able to accept these facts than Prof. Lustick owns.

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