One of the best things about baseball is its inherent uncertainty. While statistical analysis has gone a long way to changing how we view and value the events that make up the game of baseball, there is still a measure of uncertainty. And, a bit of uncertainty makes the game fun. It's a bit ironic that as statistical analysis improves our understanding and valuation of the game, it also threatens to eliminate the mystery that helps make it special. Fortunately, the human element of the game will never be completely understood or predicted, because it would be pretty boring if all the organizations had perfect knowledge of players and their future career arcs. There are definite trends around which events gravitate and cluster, but the outliers and unexpected happenings that make baseball fun remain.
For example, position player prospects typically follow a rather standard linear development curve. It almost seems as if trend line has its own gravity, pulling any potential outliers back into conformance. Typically, either position prospects conform to the develop trend line or they cease to be prospects. Typically, they gradually progress up the ladder making incremental improvements in their game along the way to perform up to the level of the competition. However, every once in a while, a player completely defies the trend, seemingly coming out of nowhere.
A prime example is Devin Mesoraco, whose 2010 story is truly remarkable. Most, if not all, of the professional pundits were writing Mesoraco off, which isn't all that surprising considering his professional production prior to this year:
2007: .219/.310/.270/.580
2008: .261/.311/.399/.710
2009: .228/.311/.381/.692
Now, he's absolutely crushing the ball to the tune of .316/.387/.603/.989. Mesoraco has unlocked his true potential with the help of good health and the wisdom that comes from struggle and experience. Additionally, he may have finally caught up to the aggressive, fast-track development program that the Reds have placed him on. Right now, Mesoraco is proving that the Reds were right to select him in the first round.
In my 2010 prospect rankings, I had Mesoraco at #16. While his pre-2010 production was never impressive, the peripherals were always relatively strong and gave reason for optimism. Additionally, Mesoraco was always going to need a longer development curve, as he was a cold weather high school prospect who missed time due to Tommy John surgery. He was at a position that required more development time than most and yet brought less experience with him to the professional ranks than normal. In short, even the best case scenario was going to involve a lot of games and at bats in the minors.
In the write-up, I stated that for me the statute of limitations on the opinion of Mesoraco as a potential impact talent was one more year. If he didn't put it together in 2010, he was going to slide off my rankings entirely. Fortunately, he is putting it all together and his 20 homeruns have put to rest my question of whether his swing would enable him to generate significant power. At this point, the power seems to be legit.
It's not a stretch to say that Mesoraco is probably the biggest surprise in all of the minor leagues, as he's gone from afterthought/irrelevant to elite/impact in a matter of mere months. And, he's bucked conventional player development ideas and trends to do it, which makes it all the more satisfying for its unexpectedness.
Additionally, Mesoraco's emergence also highlights an interesting and important organizational trend. Take a look:
2010 - Yasmani Grandal, c
2009 - Mike Leake, rhp
2008 - Yonder Alonso, 1b
2007 - Devin Mesoraco, c
2006 - Drew Stubbs, cf
2005 - Jay Bruce, of
2004 - Homer Bailey, rhp
What's missing from this list?
Looking back all the way to 2004, it's rather difficult to consider any of the Reds' first round draft picks a mistake. There's simply no bust on the list. Sure, you can quibble about the massive opportunity cost that came along with the Drew Stubbs selection, but it seems unlikely that any of the these picks are going to flame out and be a huge bust. Mesoraco was the question mark, but as his performance continues over a larger and larger sample size, it's getting more and more difficult to forecast significant regression. Neither Yonder nor Grandal have proven enough to consider them locks, but they are polished college prospects who have much shorter development curves than other prospects, which makes them much lower risk.
All in all, it's been a very strong 7 years for the Reds, who are entitled to take a bow for their strong work. The first round is obviously the best opportunity to land impact talent, but the flame out rate is also higher than might be expected. For the Reds to land a likely impact talent in 7 straight drafts is a pretty extraordinary achievement, especially for a team that previously struggled so mightily in the draft, to say the least:
2003 - Ryan Wagner, rhp
2002 - Chris Gruler, rhp
2001 - Jeremy Sowers, lhp
2000 - David Espinosa, inf
1999 - Ty Howington, lhp
1998 - Austin Kearns, of
1997 - Brandon Larson, inf
1996 - John Oliver, of
1995 - --none--
1994 - C.J. Nitkowski, lhp
1993 - Pat Watkins, of
1992 - Chad Mottola, of
It has taken an absurdly long time to undue the damage done to the scouting department by the frugal and tightfisted Marge Schott, who famously gutted the scouting budget after stating that she wasn't willing to pay people simply to watch games. She decided that the better option was to plow all the money into the MLB roster, which enabled the team to find short-term success. However, this short-term success was actually accomplished by shifting a massive cost onto the back of future Reds teams. By neglecting the farm system, more resources could be poured into the 25-man roster, but it came at the expense of the future as the flow of cost effective, homegrown talent inevitably dried up.
At this point, the future is clearly bright for both Mesoraco and the Reds, as each has managed to make a complete 180 degree turn from their established performance level to get back on track. Mesoraco has stepped forward to give the Reds another potential impact prospect in their system and could easily be playing his way into the Reds major league plans for 2011.
The emergence of Devin Mesoraco when coupled with the selection of Yasmani Grandal gives the Reds two potential "catchers of the future" where a few short months earlier there had been none. The Reds system continues to get deeper and more productive, which makes the team's strong performance at the MLB this year look more and more sustainable.
Showing posts with label D.Mesoraco. Show all posts
Showing posts with label D.Mesoraco. Show all posts
Thursday, July 29, 2010
Thursday, January 21, 2010
2010 Top Prospect List: #16 Devin Mesoraco, c
Devin Mesoraco
Height 6-1, Weight 220, B/T: R/R, DOB: 6/19/1988
2009 Redlegs Baseball Prospect Ranking: #7
Rob Neyer once wondered whether there was a "statute of limitations on an opinion." Neyer was asking the question in regards to Kris Benson, who continually earned big MLB money despite poor production by living off his status as the #1 overall pick in the draft. In the near future, we may be asking a similar question about Devin Mesoraco. But...not just yet.
Mesoraco, who has really struggled in adapting to the professional game, is still worthy of mention because of his tools. His reputation heading into the draft was as a fast rising prospect due in part to five solid tools and good makeup. At this point, he hasn't lived up to his draft position and he no longer looks like a solid five-tool guy, but there's still reason for hope.
DRAFT POSITION, EXTENUATING CIRCUMSTANCES, AND PHYSICAL BUILD
The Reds selected Mesoraco with the 15th overall pick in the 2007 draft. He hasn't panned out yet, but it's difficult to fault the selection too much. Despite some quality talent in the top 10 or so picks, not many players after the 14th pick have developed. Unfortunately, potentially the best player in that draft was selected right before the Reds picked, as the Braves snapped up hometown prospect Jason Heyward, leaving Devin Mesoraco for the Reds.
Despite the slow start to Mesoraco's professional career, his circumstances have always necessitated patience. Mesoraco was drafted out of Punxsotawney High School in Pennsylvania, which quite obviously is a cold weather state. Prospects are much more frequently and easily found in warm weather states, where the weather simply allows for longer baseball seasons and greater opportunities to hone baseball specific skills. In addition, Mesoraco injured his elbow and required Tommy John surgery, which cost him a year of development in high school. Finally, as a catcher, his development curve was already going to be longer than that of other position prospects, so the Reds will continue to need patience with Mesoraco's development.
Mesoraco stands 6-1, but has added bad weight to his lower body (compare the high school photo with the Sarasota Reds photo). It happens with young catchers, due in large part to the physical demands of the position. Lower body strength can help reduce the stress on the knees, but also adds bulk to the lower half. Additional weight in the legs can rob a prospect of a bit of lateral quickness and agility, as the legs get thicker and slower. It's also something that can show up at the plate, as the changing body type can lead to changes in the swing. Ranger catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia seems to be an example of this, as he has added weight to his legs and his swing no longer looks as fluid as it did with the Braves. Maybe it has more to do with Salty's shoulder injury, but even before that injury came to light his swing simply wasn't the same. Fortunately, Mesoraco has maintained a pretty solid swing.
2009 SEASON
Mesoraco spent the entire 2009 season at high-A Sarasota, which continued the Reds deliberate development pace for him. After he was drafted, Mesoraco spent the 2007 season in the Gulf Coast League. In 2008, he spent the entire 2008 season at low-A Dayton. He has made a one level jump in each professional season.
In 2009, Devin was assigned to high-A Sarasota. In 312 ABs, he hit .228/.311/.381/.692 with a 76/35 K/BB ratio and 8 homers. On the plus side, he was in a tough environment for hitters, collected 22 doubles, and got stronger later in the year. Before the All Star break, he hit .200/.307/.343/.650, but after the break he hit a more respectable .263/.315/.431/.746. His best month was July, when he posted a borderline impressive slash line of .271/.330/.458/.789. In addition, he hit line drives at an impressive 20% clip, which should have resulted in a higher BABIP than .276.
Behind the plate, he continues to show a strong arm and signs of being a good defensive catcher, which will only help his cause as he climbs the ladder. In addition, he continues to show a strong work ethic and good character, which could help emerge as a leader in the clubhouse.
Obviously, his overall level of production wasn't inspiring, but his peripherals do give some reason for optimism. His walk rate was solid, he consistently hit line drives, and also flashed a bit of extra base power. Add in the fact that he finished up strong and will be in a home park that is more friendly for hitters in 2010 and the potential is there for a long awaited step forward.
SWING MECHANICS
As an amateur player, Mesoraco utilized very little stride in his swing, instead he used a rocking motion in his pre-pitch setup to load up for the swing. As the pitcher delivers the ball, he transferred his weight from back to front to meet the pitch. In utilizing this approach, he occasionally got out on the front foot to early, leaving him susceptible to good offspeed pitches.
In the professional ranks, Mesoraco made changes to the lower body action in his swing. Instead of the rocking motion to trigger his weight transfer, Mesoraco switched to a more traditional stride. The stride he uses is short and towards the plate, which closes up his stance a bit as the ball is delivered. His stance starts off square to the plate, but his stride closes him off a bit. Despite the change, he still doesn't incorporate the lower body into the swing all that effectively, relying more on his upper body and arms. His limited lower body action reduces his load and the torque generated by the rotation of the hips, which makes it difficult to envision him ever hitting for significant power.
Mesoraco utilizes a fairly upright and slightly wider than shoulder width stance. He uses a high pre-pitch hand position, as he holds his hands up at or even above ear level. In addition, he also uses a very high back elbow, which is at or above the level of his shoulders. At times, a high back elbow can make it more difficult to be quick to the ball, as the back elbow must drop before the swing can fire. Once the swing gets underway, he gets good extension out to and through the ball and finishes with one hand on the bat. His swing can get a bit long at times, which when coupled with a slightly closed off hitting position could leave him susceptible to good fastballs in on the hands, but generally speaking he does a nice job of centering the ball on the bat.
FINAL THOUGHTS
As each year passes, it's gets more difficult to be optimistic regarding Mesoraco. Even so, the circumstances surrounding his development warrant an additional year of patience. He was always the type of prospect that would have to travel a longer development curve, because of the additional layer of unpredictability inherent in catcher development. And, he did show signs of improvement in 2009, so he may be starting to figure it out. Fortunately, as a catcher, his bat doesn't need to improve too much for him to carve out an MLB career, but he does need to show something more in 2010. If he doesn't take a step forward next year, then he'll slide off this list completely.
Patience has been warranted, but now is the time for Mesoraco to make good on his ability. If not now, then it becomes increasingly unlikely that he'll ever take the necessary steps forward. For me, the statute of limitations on this particular opinion is one more year, but for now Mesoraco checks in at #16 on the list.
Height 6-1, Weight 220, B/T: R/R, DOB: 6/19/1988
2009 Redlegs Baseball Prospect Ranking: #7
Rob Neyer once wondered whether there was a "statute of limitations on an opinion." Neyer was asking the question in regards to Kris Benson, who continually earned big MLB money despite poor production by living off his status as the #1 overall pick in the draft. In the near future, we may be asking a similar question about Devin Mesoraco. But...not just yet.
Mesoraco, who has really struggled in adapting to the professional game, is still worthy of mention because of his tools. His reputation heading into the draft was as a fast rising prospect due in part to five solid tools and good makeup. At this point, he hasn't lived up to his draft position and he no longer looks like a solid five-tool guy, but there's still reason for hope.
DRAFT POSITION, EXTENUATING CIRCUMSTANCES, AND PHYSICAL BUILD
The Reds selected Mesoraco with the 15th overall pick in the 2007 draft. He hasn't panned out yet, but it's difficult to fault the selection too much. Despite some quality talent in the top 10 or so picks, not many players after the 14th pick have developed. Unfortunately, potentially the best player in that draft was selected right before the Reds picked, as the Braves snapped up hometown prospect Jason Heyward, leaving Devin Mesoraco for the Reds.
Despite the slow start to Mesoraco's professional career, his circumstances have always necessitated patience. Mesoraco was drafted out of Punxsotawney High School in Pennsylvania, which quite obviously is a cold weather state. Prospects are much more frequently and easily found in warm weather states, where the weather simply allows for longer baseball seasons and greater opportunities to hone baseball specific skills. In addition, Mesoraco injured his elbow and required Tommy John surgery, which cost him a year of development in high school. Finally, as a catcher, his development curve was already going to be longer than that of other position prospects, so the Reds will continue to need patience with Mesoraco's development.
Mesoraco stands 6-1, but has added bad weight to his lower body (compare the high school photo with the Sarasota Reds photo). It happens with young catchers, due in large part to the physical demands of the position. Lower body strength can help reduce the stress on the knees, but also adds bulk to the lower half. Additional weight in the legs can rob a prospect of a bit of lateral quickness and agility, as the legs get thicker and slower. It's also something that can show up at the plate, as the changing body type can lead to changes in the swing. Ranger catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia seems to be an example of this, as he has added weight to his legs and his swing no longer looks as fluid as it did with the Braves. Maybe it has more to do with Salty's shoulder injury, but even before that injury came to light his swing simply wasn't the same. Fortunately, Mesoraco has maintained a pretty solid swing.
2009 SEASON
Mesoraco spent the entire 2009 season at high-A Sarasota, which continued the Reds deliberate development pace for him. After he was drafted, Mesoraco spent the 2007 season in the Gulf Coast League. In 2008, he spent the entire 2008 season at low-A Dayton. He has made a one level jump in each professional season.
In 2009, Devin was assigned to high-A Sarasota. In 312 ABs, he hit .228/.311/.381/.692 with a 76/35 K/BB ratio and 8 homers. On the plus side, he was in a tough environment for hitters, collected 22 doubles, and got stronger later in the year. Before the All Star break, he hit .200/.307/.343/.650, but after the break he hit a more respectable .263/.315/.431/.746. His best month was July, when he posted a borderline impressive slash line of .271/.330/.458/.789. In addition, he hit line drives at an impressive 20% clip, which should have resulted in a higher BABIP than .276.
Behind the plate, he continues to show a strong arm and signs of being a good defensive catcher, which will only help his cause as he climbs the ladder. In addition, he continues to show a strong work ethic and good character, which could help emerge as a leader in the clubhouse.
Obviously, his overall level of production wasn't inspiring, but his peripherals do give some reason for optimism. His walk rate was solid, he consistently hit line drives, and also flashed a bit of extra base power. Add in the fact that he finished up strong and will be in a home park that is more friendly for hitters in 2010 and the potential is there for a long awaited step forward.
SWING MECHANICS
As an amateur player, Mesoraco utilized very little stride in his swing, instead he used a rocking motion in his pre-pitch setup to load up for the swing. As the pitcher delivers the ball, he transferred his weight from back to front to meet the pitch. In utilizing this approach, he occasionally got out on the front foot to early, leaving him susceptible to good offspeed pitches.
In the professional ranks, Mesoraco made changes to the lower body action in his swing. Instead of the rocking motion to trigger his weight transfer, Mesoraco switched to a more traditional stride. The stride he uses is short and towards the plate, which closes up his stance a bit as the ball is delivered. His stance starts off square to the plate, but his stride closes him off a bit. Despite the change, he still doesn't incorporate the lower body into the swing all that effectively, relying more on his upper body and arms. His limited lower body action reduces his load and the torque generated by the rotation of the hips, which makes it difficult to envision him ever hitting for significant power.
Mesoraco utilizes a fairly upright and slightly wider than shoulder width stance. He uses a high pre-pitch hand position, as he holds his hands up at or even above ear level. In addition, he also uses a very high back elbow, which is at or above the level of his shoulders. At times, a high back elbow can make it more difficult to be quick to the ball, as the back elbow must drop before the swing can fire. Once the swing gets underway, he gets good extension out to and through the ball and finishes with one hand on the bat. His swing can get a bit long at times, which when coupled with a slightly closed off hitting position could leave him susceptible to good fastballs in on the hands, but generally speaking he does a nice job of centering the ball on the bat.
FINAL THOUGHTS
As each year passes, it's gets more difficult to be optimistic regarding Mesoraco. Even so, the circumstances surrounding his development warrant an additional year of patience. He was always the type of prospect that would have to travel a longer development curve, because of the additional layer of unpredictability inherent in catcher development. And, he did show signs of improvement in 2009, so he may be starting to figure it out. Fortunately, as a catcher, his bat doesn't need to improve too much for him to carve out an MLB career, but he does need to show something more in 2010. If he doesn't take a step forward next year, then he'll slide off this list completely.
Patience has been warranted, but now is the time for Mesoraco to make good on his ability. If not now, then it becomes increasingly unlikely that he'll ever take the necessary steps forward. For me, the statute of limitations on this particular opinion is one more year, but for now Mesoraco checks in at #16 on the list.
Saturday, February 28, 2009
2009 Top Prospect List: #7 Devin Mesoraco, c
Devin Mesoraco
Height 6-1, Weight 200, B/T: R/R, DOB: 6/19/1988
2008 Redlegs Baseball Prospect Ranking: #8
Devin Mesoraco was part of the new Reds draft philosophy, which placed renewed emphasis on players at premier positions. Mesoraco was drafted with the 15th overall pick in the 2007 draft to fill the gaping hole behind the dish that has plagued the Reds over the past decade or so. Mesoraco was drafted on the basis of his impressive athleticism and raw tools, but he needs to continue to refine those tools into baseball skills.
2008 SEASON
After spending the 2007 season in the rookie Gulf Coast League, the Reds kept Mesoraco in extended spring training to begin the 2008 season. Early speculation was that he would be sent to the rookie Pioneer League, but Mesoraco showed enough in extended spring training to convince the Reds to send him to low-A Dayton.
Mesoraco immediately justified the organization's confidence in him by hitting .286/.357/.444 in 70 plate appearances in May. He performed well at the plate in the first three months of the season, but he tailed off badly in August, in which he posted a lackluster .216/.266/.307. Obviously, the physical strain of his first full professional season caught up to him in the dog days of summer, but it was a fairly successful year for Mesoraco. Overall, he posted a line of .261/.311/.399/.710 with 13 doubles, 1 triple, 9 homers, and a 64/20 K/BB ratio in 331 PAs. His components weren't bad either, as he hit line drives 14% of the time and had a BABIP of .304. Ideally, he'll increase his line drive rate and decrease his 51% GB% as he continues to gain more experience and physical strength at the professional level.
While some have been disappointed in Mesoraco's 2008 season, it's important to put it in the proper context. To start, the development curve for a high school catcher is long and arduous. Catchers have to learn the nuances of calling a game, familiarize themselves with the pitching staff, and in their free time squeeze in time to learn how to hit professional pitching. It's a challenging development curve and, not surprisingly, catchers frequently move much more slowly up the ladder than other position prospects.
So, even in the best of circumstances, a high school catcher is looking at a long development process, but there are two other factors working to lengthen his development curve even further. First, Mesoraco played high school baseball in Pennsylvania, which is a cold weather climate. Simply put, players who attend schools in cold weather climates simply don't get the opportunity to play as much baseball as those who attend warm weather schools. Second, Mesoraco was forced to undergo Tommy John surgery as a sophomore in high school, so he missed considerable development time during the injury and subsequent rehabilitation. Not only was Mesoraco already facing a lengthy development curve due to the position he played, but it's likely to be even longer due to the game experience he lost because of injury and cold weather.
Clearly, Mesoraco has a long road to travel to the majors, but placing too much emphasis on his early struggles may ultimately prove to be shortsighted.
SWING MECHANICS
Last year's report discussed his hitting mechanics and his active lower body action. As an amateur player, Mesoraco utilized very little forward stride, choosing instead to lift his front foot up and placing it right back down. In order to get his weight moving forward to meet the pitch, Mesoraco would transfer his weight to the front foot when the pitcher began his delivery and then transfer the weight to the back foot as the pitcher got closer to releasing the ball. This mechanism allowed him to load up for the swing and get his weight moving forward without much of a forward stride.
At the professional level, it seems that the Reds have worked to eliminate some of this back-and-forth weight transfer technique. Mesoraco has quieted his lower body and increased the length of his stride, which may help lessen his tendency to get too far out on the front foot. Mesoraco has good natural strength, but it hasn't translated to homerun power at the plate. Mesoraco has good tools, but he's still raw at the plate and will need to continue working on his swing and approach.
You can compare the MLB draft video for Mesoraco with the above youtube clip.
BAD LOWER BODY WEIGHT
This offseason, I've actually been taking a more in-depth look at catching prospects, which was inspired in part by a recent write up by John Sickels in which he reviewed his past rankings of catching prospects to see how their respective careers turned out.
One of the phenomenon he identified was what he called "Young Catcher Stagnation Syndrome." As he states, it's more of a description than an explanation, but the theory is that young catchers frequently fail to develop offensively because of the physical stress of playing the position.
While it's definitely too soon to see it happening with Mesoraco, it's something to keep an eye on. Especially in light of Mesoraco's thumb injuries, which is the type of problem that could crop up again and hinder his development at the plate.
On the plus side, Sickels found that the best young catchers in the Majors today, Joe Mauer and Brian McCann, were drafted out of high school. Of the ten best catchers in baseball, only Chris Iannetta and Kurt Suzuki were college draft picks. So, it's possible that there are advantages for catching prospects who get into the professional ranks as early as possible, because the development curve for catchers is quite long. However, it may be nothing more than a small sample size, as Matt Wieters and Buster Posey are on the horizon and both were selected out of the college ranks.
Another interesting issue that I've noticed that can hinder catcher development is bad body weight. Perhaps due to the unique physical demands of the catcher position, it seems that young catchers have a greater tendency to add weight to their lower half. Obviously, to withstand the rigors of catching and the toll it can take on the knees, it's important to have strong leg muscles. However, more than any other position, it seems that the weight that catchers add ends up in the lower body. It's bad body weight because it can rob them of agility and quickness. The legs get thicker and heavier, which reduces lateral movement behind the plate, slows footwork on throws, and, quite simply, seems to rob them of some explosiveness.
Below, you can see Mesoraco in high school in the photo on the left and with the Dayton Dragons in 2008 in the photo on the right. Now, quite obviously, everyone is going to fill out after high school, so it's hardly unexpected. However, some scouts think he added some bad body weight in 2008 and these pictures do reveal a somewhat stockier Mesoraco. Projecting players is difficult enough as it is, but factoring in physical development adds yet another layer of unpredictability to catcher projection. It's too soon to definitively state that this will be a problem for Mesoraco, but it's something that bears watching, especially since he was highly touted for his athleticism and anything that would diminish it is detrimental.
CONCLUSION
Mesoraco is an interesting prospect, but one with both potentially significant positives and negatives. The question is what will win out? His raw athleticism and myriad of tools? Or, his inexperience, injury problems, and lower body weight? It's far too soon to tell, as the development curve for high school catchers is longer and more volatile than that of any other type of baseball prospect.
When he was drafted, I thought Mesoraco's ceiling was that of Russ Martin, but he already seems to have lost a bit of explosiveness. His upside is still considerable, but he'll need to make some adjustments in 2009 in order to continue to climb the ladder. That said, his work ethic is solid and his makeup is good, so he has the intangibles needed to refine his game and reach his ceiling. Mesoraco's upside is considerable and he has all the tools to be an All Star, so for now he checks in at #7 on the list.
Height 6-1, Weight 200, B/T: R/R, DOB: 6/19/1988
2008 Redlegs Baseball Prospect Ranking: #8
Devin Mesoraco was part of the new Reds draft philosophy, which placed renewed emphasis on players at premier positions. Mesoraco was drafted with the 15th overall pick in the 2007 draft to fill the gaping hole behind the dish that has plagued the Reds over the past decade or so. Mesoraco was drafted on the basis of his impressive athleticism and raw tools, but he needs to continue to refine those tools into baseball skills.
2008 SEASON
After spending the 2007 season in the rookie Gulf Coast League, the Reds kept Mesoraco in extended spring training to begin the 2008 season. Early speculation was that he would be sent to the rookie Pioneer League, but Mesoraco showed enough in extended spring training to convince the Reds to send him to low-A Dayton.
Mesoraco immediately justified the organization's confidence in him by hitting .286/.357/.444 in 70 plate appearances in May. He performed well at the plate in the first three months of the season, but he tailed off badly in August, in which he posted a lackluster .216/.266/.307. Obviously, the physical strain of his first full professional season caught up to him in the dog days of summer, but it was a fairly successful year for Mesoraco. Overall, he posted a line of .261/.311/.399/.710 with 13 doubles, 1 triple, 9 homers, and a 64/20 K/BB ratio in 331 PAs. His components weren't bad either, as he hit line drives 14% of the time and had a BABIP of .304. Ideally, he'll increase his line drive rate and decrease his 51% GB% as he continues to gain more experience and physical strength at the professional level.
While some have been disappointed in Mesoraco's 2008 season, it's important to put it in the proper context. To start, the development curve for a high school catcher is long and arduous. Catchers have to learn the nuances of calling a game, familiarize themselves with the pitching staff, and in their free time squeeze in time to learn how to hit professional pitching. It's a challenging development curve and, not surprisingly, catchers frequently move much more slowly up the ladder than other position prospects.
So, even in the best of circumstances, a high school catcher is looking at a long development process, but there are two other factors working to lengthen his development curve even further. First, Mesoraco played high school baseball in Pennsylvania, which is a cold weather climate. Simply put, players who attend schools in cold weather climates simply don't get the opportunity to play as much baseball as those who attend warm weather schools. Second, Mesoraco was forced to undergo Tommy John surgery as a sophomore in high school, so he missed considerable development time during the injury and subsequent rehabilitation. Not only was Mesoraco already facing a lengthy development curve due to the position he played, but it's likely to be even longer due to the game experience he lost because of injury and cold weather.
Clearly, Mesoraco has a long road to travel to the majors, but placing too much emphasis on his early struggles may ultimately prove to be shortsighted.
SWING MECHANICS
Last year's report discussed his hitting mechanics and his active lower body action. As an amateur player, Mesoraco utilized very little forward stride, choosing instead to lift his front foot up and placing it right back down. In order to get his weight moving forward to meet the pitch, Mesoraco would transfer his weight to the front foot when the pitcher began his delivery and then transfer the weight to the back foot as the pitcher got closer to releasing the ball. This mechanism allowed him to load up for the swing and get his weight moving forward without much of a forward stride.At the professional level, it seems that the Reds have worked to eliminate some of this back-and-forth weight transfer technique. Mesoraco has quieted his lower body and increased the length of his stride, which may help lessen his tendency to get too far out on the front foot. Mesoraco has good natural strength, but it hasn't translated to homerun power at the plate. Mesoraco has good tools, but he's still raw at the plate and will need to continue working on his swing and approach.
You can compare the MLB draft video for Mesoraco with the above youtube clip.
BAD LOWER BODY WEIGHT
This offseason, I've actually been taking a more in-depth look at catching prospects, which was inspired in part by a recent write up by John Sickels in which he reviewed his past rankings of catching prospects to see how their respective careers turned out.
One of the phenomenon he identified was what he called "Young Catcher Stagnation Syndrome." As he states, it's more of a description than an explanation, but the theory is that young catchers frequently fail to develop offensively because of the physical stress of playing the position.
While it's definitely too soon to see it happening with Mesoraco, it's something to keep an eye on. Especially in light of Mesoraco's thumb injuries, which is the type of problem that could crop up again and hinder his development at the plate.
On the plus side, Sickels found that the best young catchers in the Majors today, Joe Mauer and Brian McCann, were drafted out of high school. Of the ten best catchers in baseball, only Chris Iannetta and Kurt Suzuki were college draft picks. So, it's possible that there are advantages for catching prospects who get into the professional ranks as early as possible, because the development curve for catchers is quite long. However, it may be nothing more than a small sample size, as Matt Wieters and Buster Posey are on the horizon and both were selected out of the college ranks.
Another interesting issue that I've noticed that can hinder catcher development is bad body weight. Perhaps due to the unique physical demands of the catcher position, it seems that young catchers have a greater tendency to add weight to their lower half. Obviously, to withstand the rigors of catching and the toll it can take on the knees, it's important to have strong leg muscles. However, more than any other position, it seems that the weight that catchers add ends up in the lower body. It's bad body weight because it can rob them of agility and quickness. The legs get thicker and heavier, which reduces lateral movement behind the plate, slows footwork on throws, and, quite simply, seems to rob them of some explosiveness.
Below, you can see Mesoraco in high school in the photo on the left and with the Dayton Dragons in 2008 in the photo on the right. Now, quite obviously, everyone is going to fill out after high school, so it's hardly unexpected. However, some scouts think he added some bad body weight in 2008 and these pictures do reveal a somewhat stockier Mesoraco. Projecting players is difficult enough as it is, but factoring in physical development adds yet another layer of unpredictability to catcher projection. It's too soon to definitively state that this will be a problem for Mesoraco, but it's something that bears watching, especially since he was highly touted for his athleticism and anything that would diminish it is detrimental.
CONCLUSION
Mesoraco is an interesting prospect, but one with both potentially significant positives and negatives. The question is what will win out? His raw athleticism and myriad of tools? Or, his inexperience, injury problems, and lower body weight? It's far too soon to tell, as the development curve for high school catchers is longer and more volatile than that of any other type of baseball prospect.
When he was drafted, I thought Mesoraco's ceiling was that of Russ Martin, but he already seems to have lost a bit of explosiveness. His upside is still considerable, but he'll need to make some adjustments in 2009 in order to continue to climb the ladder. That said, his work ethic is solid and his makeup is good, so he has the intangibles needed to refine his game and reach his ceiling. Mesoraco's upside is considerable and he has all the tools to be an All Star, so for now he checks in at #7 on the list.
Sunday, June 22, 2008
Top 25 Prospects: Midseason Update Part 1
Well, we are almost halfway through the season, so it's as good a time as any to check in on the sprouts down on the farm to see who on our Top 25 Prospect List is thriving and who is withering on the vine. Here is how I had them ranked this offseason and how they are doing this season:
1. Jay Bruce - Well, I'm not sure much needs to be said on this one, as Jay lit up triple-A pitching to the tune of .364/.393/.630/1.023, which brought him a well earned promotion to the majors. Bruce wasn't phased much by the big leagues, as he got off to a white hot start and sits now at a more than respectable .300/.386/.470/.856. Pitchers have slowed him down lately, but Bruce will simply need to adjust to their plan of attack. He has too much offensive skill to be held down for long. Get ready for a fun next decade or two, Reds fans.
2. Homer Bailey - Well, while Jay Bruce's path to the majors has been as straight as a string, Homer Bailey's has had more twists and turns than Lombard Street in San Francisco. Homer's triple-A performance really didn't earn him a call-up to the majors, but he got one anyway. At triple-A Louisville, Homer currently sports a 4.07 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, and a 62/31 K/BB ratio. During his most recent stint in the majors, Homer made 3 starts posting an 8.76 ERA, a 2.11 WHIP, and a putrid 3/10 K/BB ratio. He's still young, so he has time to right the ship, but at the MLB level his fastball velocity is down and he seems to lack both command of his pitches and also an out-pitch. Also, his attitude has repeatable been called into question, which is never a good sign for a young ballplayer. The Reds tinkered with Homer's mechanics (including having him bring his hands only to the chest, rather than over the head), but have yet to see positive results. The best thing the organization can do is leave him in triple-A for the rest of the year and force him to actually EARN his next promotion.
3. Johnny Cueto - Johnny's rookie season has been overshadowed by the dominance of fellow rotation member Edinson Volquez. However, unlike the prospect directly above him on the list, Cueto has demonstrated the skills necessary to be a very effective MLB starting pitcher. Three of the main elements of a successful pitcher are walk rate, strikeout rate, and groundball rate. Well, interestingly enough, Cueto is very strong in walk rate and strikeout rate, while Edinson is very strong in strikeout rate and groundball rate. However, Great American Ballpark is more ideally suited to a strong strikeout/groundball pitcher like Edinson, than it is to a low walk/strong strikeout pitcher like Cueto. Over time, Cueto should learn to limit his susceptibility to the long ball, but for now Edinson's game is better tailored to Great American Ballpark. Even so, Cueto should have a long, successful career in Cincinnati.
4. Joey Votto - The Canadian kid has performed about as well as expected, however his production is a bit different than I expected. So far in his big league career, Votto has displayed good power, but only average on base skills. Given his career minor league line of .289/.385/.476/.861, I expected the opposite. Regardless, his career is in its infancy and he should continue to provide professional At Bats in Cincinnati for years to come.
5. Drew Stubbs - Stubbs is still plying his trade at high-A Sarasota, where he
started off as hot as a supernova. While he has cooled off as of late, his line is still solid at .267/.381/.405/.786 with 22 steals in 29 attempts. Stubbs came out of the University of Texas with a reputation for tremendous defense, good speed, and light-tower power. He is one of the few Longhorns to ever hit the ball over the scoreboard at Texas. However, his current skill set would seem to have him on track to be a leadoff hitter, as his on-base skills and speed are both above average. Stubbs is what we need to see from more of the Reds prospects: great defensively, strong on-base skills, and a high baseball IQ. If he continues to stay on track, he could be the Reds starting centerfielder and leadoff hitter for good starting opening day of 2010.
6. Todd Frazier - Previously, I wrote: "Todd Frazier is a baseball player. That sentence may not seem like it says much, but in reality it says it all." That statement continues to be true, as Frazier's polished skill-set is enabling him to climb the ranks of the Reds system. He started out back at low-A Dayton, where he pounded pitchers to a tune of .321/.402/.598/1.000 before getting promoted to high-A Sarasota. At Sarasota, Frazier is currently at .288/.347/.485/.832, which doesn't strike the eye as very impressive, but Sarasota is notoriously tough on hitters. Overall, Frazier is one of the brightest lights in the Reds system and his innate understanding of the game allows all of his solid tools to play up a notch. If he continues to perform as he has, Frazier will continue to climb the levels of the farm system and up even higher on this prospect list.
7. Juan Francisco - Juan is another bright light in the farm system and another example of the importance of international scouting in the modern game. Juan is also working at high-A Sarasota, where he has posted a respectable line of .283/.301/.476/.777 in a pitcher friendly park. Francisco has substantial power and is a very good athlete, but he is less polished than Todd Frazier and still has an alarming K/BB ratio of 69/8. It's difficult to envision a hitter have much MLB success without improving on his approach at the plate, so it's a very large red flag. Still, he's a young player and has significant upside, so he's definitely one to keep an eye on.
8. Devin Mesoraco - Mesoraco was held back in extended spring training to start the year, which led to talk that he was destined
to head back to the rookie level Pioner League. But, the Reds eventually sent him to low-A Dayton, where Mesoraco begin to make good on his promise and justify his high draft slot. He is currently hitting .276/.331/.397/.727 after following up a slow start with a nice hot streak. As a catcher, Mesoraco has a long way to go in his development, as he has much to learn on both sides of the dish. Still, after an injury plagued season last year and a bit of a poor start in 2008, it's comforting to see Mesoraco play so capably. Mesoraco has a long way to go, but he's demonstrating a great deal of promise.
9. Travis Wood - Wood slid down many prospects list due to an injury plagued 2007, but he has had a strong bounce back year thus far. He posted a very impressive 2.70 ERA and 41/21 K/BB ratio in 46.2 innings at high-A Sarasota. That earned him a promotion to double-A Chattanooga, where he has strong 24/12 K/BB ratio in 23.0 innings pitched. He also has a poor ERA of 6.65, due in large part to back to back games in which he allowed 6 and then 7 earned runs. Still, Wood seems healthy, which should go a long way towards reestablishing him as a quality pitching prospect in the eyes of the national baseball media.
10. Chris Valaika - Valaika is another who slipped down most
prospect lists, but he is having a very strong 2008 season. Chris posting a stellar line of .363/.393/.585/.978 at Sarasota and now has a line of .281/.345/.425/.770 at double-A Chattanooga. After some questions emerged about his bat in 2007, Valaika has done his best to answer them in 2008. The jump from A-ball to double-A ball is considered the toughest in the minors, so it'll be interesting to see if Valaika can build on his solid start. In addition, he has improved his defensive play at shortstop to the point that some are wondering whether he might be a legitimate option at shortstop at the big league level, which would only increase his value. Overall, it's been a nice year for Valaika, but he needs to continue to prove that he profiles as more than just a utility infielder at the big league level.
11. Neftali Soto - No one has gotten off to a better start in 2008 than Soto. The
Reds assigned him to the rookie league Billings Mustangs, who just got their season underway. In the team's first 5 games, Soto has cranked 4 homeruns and posted a line of .435/.480/1.087/1.567. Soto is a right handed hitter with a beautiful swing. It has a similar fluid grace to Joe DiMaggio's swing. If Soto can be half the MLB player that the Yankee Clipper was, then the Reds will be quite pleased. Personally, I still don't think Soto will be able to stick at shortstop, as he already lacks good first step quickness and will likely only lose range when he inevitably adds weight to his 6'2 frame. Still, Soto is an intriguing prospect and could shoot way up this list if he continues his stellar play.
12. Danny Dorn - Dorn is one of my favorite prospects, but he's had a bit of a strange year. He suffered a knee injury early in the season, which has made it difficult for him to get into a rhythm. Still, Dorn has posted a solid line of .272/.368/.474/.842, which is well down from his amazing performance at double-A last year (1.089 OPS). Even so, the on-base skills are strong and given his lack of top flight power, that is what will drive his career. Another strange aspect to Dorn's season is that the Lookouts are using him at several different positions. So far this season, he's played leftfield, rightfield, quite a bit of firstbase, and spent a lot of time at designated hitter. I'm not sure if the Reds are moving him around because they don't view him as a potential starter, so they are attempting to increase his versatility or if they are taking it easy on his injured knee. Regardless, he'd be better off starting every game in leftfield and I hope to see that happen in the near future.
13. Matt Maloney - It's been a tale of two seasons for Maloney,
as he started out 2008 with very poor results. However, he's been much better as of late, which has earned him an ERA of 4.93, a whip of 1.37, and a stellar K/BB ratio of 78/28 in 84.0 innings pitched. His peripherals have been solid all year, so a large part of his struggles seem to be poor luck. His BABIP for the season is .331 and his Fielding Independent Pitching has been 3.98, which is much more impressive than his 4.93 ERA. Overall, Maloney has had a deceptively solid season and as the sample size increases his ERA and WHIP should regress to the mean. He should make his debut in Cincinnati later this summer.
14. Josh Ravin - Turning to one of my other favorite prospects, the Reds kept Ravin in extended spring training, but eventually sent him to low-A Dayton. At Dayton, Ravin has shown flashes of brilliance, but also struggled with his command. Ravin fell off of most prospect lists because of his terrible control in 2007. However, I've always loved his mechanics, which should help his command come around, and his pure stuff, so I still rate him highly. At Dayton, Ravin has posted the following: 5.00 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, and a K/BB ratio of 24/16 in 27.0 innings. Clearly, the stuff is there, as he's striking out almost a batter an inning, but it's hard not to be disappointed in the control. However, he's young and I still wouldn't change his ranking on this list, as I'm a true believer. For me, he's definitely someone to watch. Now, if he could only find a consistent arm slot, the sky would be the limit.
15. Adam Rosales - Rosales had a very impressive spring training and he turned all of the right heads in the Reds organization. In addition, he has no longer been relegated to 1b, which is where he spent most of last season due to an elbow injury. So, with the elbow injury no longer of concern, Rosales has been able to climb back up the defensive spectrum, which has really helped him regain some of the value he lost at first base. Still, despite all these positives, Rosales has really struggled at the plate with triple-A Louisville, where he is hitting a paltry .215/.279/.318/.597. Unfortunately, he seems to have given back some of the gains he made in Spring Training. At this point, he seems to be a real long shot to be anything more than a utility infielder at the MLB level.
Well, that's how the first 15 stack up, so the next installment will feature #16-25 and the Other Notables. I'm sure you won't want to miss that!!!
1. Jay Bruce - Well, I'm not sure much needs to be said on this one, as Jay lit up triple-A pitching to the tune of .364/.393/.630/1.023, which brought him a well earned promotion to the majors. Bruce wasn't phased much by the big leagues, as he got off to a white hot start and sits now at a more than respectable .300/.386/.470/.856. Pitchers have slowed him down lately, but Bruce will simply need to adjust to their plan of attack. He has too much offensive skill to be held down for long. Get ready for a fun next decade or two, Reds fans.
2. Homer Bailey - Well, while Jay Bruce's path to the majors has been as straight as a string, Homer Bailey's has had more twists and turns than Lombard Street in San Francisco. Homer's triple-A performance really didn't earn him a call-up to the majors, but he got one anyway. At triple-A Louisville, Homer currently sports a 4.07 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, and a 62/31 K/BB ratio. During his most recent stint in the majors, Homer made 3 starts posting an 8.76 ERA, a 2.11 WHIP, and a putrid 3/10 K/BB ratio. He's still young, so he has time to right the ship, but at the MLB level his fastball velocity is down and he seems to lack both command of his pitches and also an out-pitch. Also, his attitude has repeatable been called into question, which is never a good sign for a young ballplayer. The Reds tinkered with Homer's mechanics (including having him bring his hands only to the chest, rather than over the head), but have yet to see positive results. The best thing the organization can do is leave him in triple-A for the rest of the year and force him to actually EARN his next promotion.
3. Johnny Cueto - Johnny's rookie season has been overshadowed by the dominance of fellow rotation member Edinson Volquez. However, unlike the prospect directly above him on the list, Cueto has demonstrated the skills necessary to be a very effective MLB starting pitcher. Three of the main elements of a successful pitcher are walk rate, strikeout rate, and groundball rate. Well, interestingly enough, Cueto is very strong in walk rate and strikeout rate, while Edinson is very strong in strikeout rate and groundball rate. However, Great American Ballpark is more ideally suited to a strong strikeout/groundball pitcher like Edinson, than it is to a low walk/strong strikeout pitcher like Cueto. Over time, Cueto should learn to limit his susceptibility to the long ball, but for now Edinson's game is better tailored to Great American Ballpark. Even so, Cueto should have a long, successful career in Cincinnati.
4. Joey Votto - The Canadian kid has performed about as well as expected, however his production is a bit different than I expected. So far in his big league career, Votto has displayed good power, but only average on base skills. Given his career minor league line of .289/.385/.476/.861, I expected the opposite. Regardless, his career is in its infancy and he should continue to provide professional At Bats in Cincinnati for years to come.
5. Drew Stubbs - Stubbs is still plying his trade at high-A Sarasota, where he
started off as hot as a supernova. While he has cooled off as of late, his line is still solid at .267/.381/.405/.786 with 22 steals in 29 attempts. Stubbs came out of the University of Texas with a reputation for tremendous defense, good speed, and light-tower power. He is one of the few Longhorns to ever hit the ball over the scoreboard at Texas. However, his current skill set would seem to have him on track to be a leadoff hitter, as his on-base skills and speed are both above average. Stubbs is what we need to see from more of the Reds prospects: great defensively, strong on-base skills, and a high baseball IQ. If he continues to stay on track, he could be the Reds starting centerfielder and leadoff hitter for good starting opening day of 2010.6. Todd Frazier - Previously, I wrote: "Todd Frazier is a baseball player. That sentence may not seem like it says much, but in reality it says it all." That statement continues to be true, as Frazier's polished skill-set is enabling him to climb the ranks of the Reds system. He started out back at low-A Dayton, where he pounded pitchers to a tune of .321/.402/.598/1.000 before getting promoted to high-A Sarasota. At Sarasota, Frazier is currently at .288/.347/.485/.832, which doesn't strike the eye as very impressive, but Sarasota is notoriously tough on hitters. Overall, Frazier is one of the brightest lights in the Reds system and his innate understanding of the game allows all of his solid tools to play up a notch. If he continues to perform as he has, Frazier will continue to climb the levels of the farm system and up even higher on this prospect list.
7. Juan Francisco - Juan is another bright light in the farm system and another example of the importance of international scouting in the modern game. Juan is also working at high-A Sarasota, where he has posted a respectable line of .283/.301/.476/.777 in a pitcher friendly park. Francisco has substantial power and is a very good athlete, but he is less polished than Todd Frazier and still has an alarming K/BB ratio of 69/8. It's difficult to envision a hitter have much MLB success without improving on his approach at the plate, so it's a very large red flag. Still, he's a young player and has significant upside, so he's definitely one to keep an eye on.
8. Devin Mesoraco - Mesoraco was held back in extended spring training to start the year, which led to talk that he was destined
to head back to the rookie level Pioner League. But, the Reds eventually sent him to low-A Dayton, where Mesoraco begin to make good on his promise and justify his high draft slot. He is currently hitting .276/.331/.397/.727 after following up a slow start with a nice hot streak. As a catcher, Mesoraco has a long way to go in his development, as he has much to learn on both sides of the dish. Still, after an injury plagued season last year and a bit of a poor start in 2008, it's comforting to see Mesoraco play so capably. Mesoraco has a long way to go, but he's demonstrating a great deal of promise.9. Travis Wood - Wood slid down many prospects list due to an injury plagued 2007, but he has had a strong bounce back year thus far. He posted a very impressive 2.70 ERA and 41/21 K/BB ratio in 46.2 innings at high-A Sarasota. That earned him a promotion to double-A Chattanooga, where he has strong 24/12 K/BB ratio in 23.0 innings pitched. He also has a poor ERA of 6.65, due in large part to back to back games in which he allowed 6 and then 7 earned runs. Still, Wood seems healthy, which should go a long way towards reestablishing him as a quality pitching prospect in the eyes of the national baseball media.
10. Chris Valaika - Valaika is another who slipped down most
prospect lists, but he is having a very strong 2008 season. Chris posting a stellar line of .363/.393/.585/.978 at Sarasota and now has a line of .281/.345/.425/.770 at double-A Chattanooga. After some questions emerged about his bat in 2007, Valaika has done his best to answer them in 2008. The jump from A-ball to double-A ball is considered the toughest in the minors, so it'll be interesting to see if Valaika can build on his solid start. In addition, he has improved his defensive play at shortstop to the point that some are wondering whether he might be a legitimate option at shortstop at the big league level, which would only increase his value. Overall, it's been a nice year for Valaika, but he needs to continue to prove that he profiles as more than just a utility infielder at the big league level.11. Neftali Soto - No one has gotten off to a better start in 2008 than Soto. The
Reds assigned him to the rookie league Billings Mustangs, who just got their season underway. In the team's first 5 games, Soto has cranked 4 homeruns and posted a line of .435/.480/1.087/1.567. Soto is a right handed hitter with a beautiful swing. It has a similar fluid grace to Joe DiMaggio's swing. If Soto can be half the MLB player that the Yankee Clipper was, then the Reds will be quite pleased. Personally, I still don't think Soto will be able to stick at shortstop, as he already lacks good first step quickness and will likely only lose range when he inevitably adds weight to his 6'2 frame. Still, Soto is an intriguing prospect and could shoot way up this list if he continues his stellar play.12. Danny Dorn - Dorn is one of my favorite prospects, but he's had a bit of a strange year. He suffered a knee injury early in the season, which has made it difficult for him to get into a rhythm. Still, Dorn has posted a solid line of .272/.368/.474/.842, which is well down from his amazing performance at double-A last year (1.089 OPS). Even so, the on-base skills are strong and given his lack of top flight power, that is what will drive his career. Another strange aspect to Dorn's season is that the Lookouts are using him at several different positions. So far this season, he's played leftfield, rightfield, quite a bit of firstbase, and spent a lot of time at designated hitter. I'm not sure if the Reds are moving him around because they don't view him as a potential starter, so they are attempting to increase his versatility or if they are taking it easy on his injured knee. Regardless, he'd be better off starting every game in leftfield and I hope to see that happen in the near future.
13. Matt Maloney - It's been a tale of two seasons for Maloney,
as he started out 2008 with very poor results. However, he's been much better as of late, which has earned him an ERA of 4.93, a whip of 1.37, and a stellar K/BB ratio of 78/28 in 84.0 innings pitched. His peripherals have been solid all year, so a large part of his struggles seem to be poor luck. His BABIP for the season is .331 and his Fielding Independent Pitching has been 3.98, which is much more impressive than his 4.93 ERA. Overall, Maloney has had a deceptively solid season and as the sample size increases his ERA and WHIP should regress to the mean. He should make his debut in Cincinnati later this summer.14. Josh Ravin - Turning to one of my other favorite prospects, the Reds kept Ravin in extended spring training, but eventually sent him to low-A Dayton. At Dayton, Ravin has shown flashes of brilliance, but also struggled with his command. Ravin fell off of most prospect lists because of his terrible control in 2007. However, I've always loved his mechanics, which should help his command come around, and his pure stuff, so I still rate him highly. At Dayton, Ravin has posted the following: 5.00 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, and a K/BB ratio of 24/16 in 27.0 innings. Clearly, the stuff is there, as he's striking out almost a batter an inning, but it's hard not to be disappointed in the control. However, he's young and I still wouldn't change his ranking on this list, as I'm a true believer. For me, he's definitely someone to watch. Now, if he could only find a consistent arm slot, the sky would be the limit.
15. Adam Rosales - Rosales had a very impressive spring training and he turned all of the right heads in the Reds organization. In addition, he has no longer been relegated to 1b, which is where he spent most of last season due to an elbow injury. So, with the elbow injury no longer of concern, Rosales has been able to climb back up the defensive spectrum, which has really helped him regain some of the value he lost at first base. Still, despite all these positives, Rosales has really struggled at the plate with triple-A Louisville, where he is hitting a paltry .215/.279/.318/.597. Unfortunately, he seems to have given back some of the gains he made in Spring Training. At this point, he seems to be a real long shot to be anything more than a utility infielder at the MLB level.
Well, that's how the first 15 stack up, so the next installment will feature #16-25 and the Other Notables. I'm sure you won't want to miss that!!!
Monday, November 19, 2007
Top Prospect List: #8 Devin Mesoraco, c
The Reds continued to adhere to the new draft philosophy implemented by scouting director Chris Buckley when they selected Devin Mesoraco with the 15th overall pick of the 2007 draft. Under Buckley, the Reds have focused on acquiring strong, up the middle talent in the draft. It started in 2006 with centerfielder Drew Stubbs and shortstop Chris Valaika and continued in 2007 with catcher Devin Mesoraco and shortstops Todd Frazier and Zach Cozart.
Mesoraco was drafted out of Punxsutawney High School in Pennsylvania. He's 6'1, 200 lbs, bats right, and throws right. Mesoraco was a 19 year old senior when the Reds drafted him, so he is a bit older than expected. Accordingly, he'll already be 20 in June of next season.
PROFESSIONAL DEBUT
There really isn't a euphemistic way to say it: Mesoraco's professional debut went over like a lead balloon.
Once under contract with the Reds, Mesoraco was sent to the Gulf Coast League Reds where he hit .219/.310/.270/.580 in 140 ABs. On the plus side, Mesoraco walked in 9.6% of his plate appearances. On the downside, he hit line drives only 8% of the time.
While there certainly isn't much to get excited about here, there also isn't much cause for concern either. Mesoraco was 19 years old and getting his first taste of professional ball. In addition, he was playing through lingering injuries to both thumbs, which also hindered his performance.
The sample size is too small and there are just too many variables to draw any conclusions from his 2007 stats at this point.
OFFENSE
Mesoraco has a nice collection of offensive skills. He makes good contact, possesses good power, and has good pitch recognition. In addition, he runs well...for a catcher.
At the plate, Mesoraco uses a wide stance, which limits the length of the stride. In fact, he essentially just lifts his front foot and puts it back down in the same spot. Given that he lacks a stride, Mesoraco relies on weight transfer to get his body moving towards the pitch. Prior to the pitcher's windup, he rocks back and forth slightly from his front foot to his back foot. When the pitcher starts his windup, Mesoraco flexes his left knee to shift his weight onto his front front. When the pitcher gets ready to release the ball, Mesoraco straightens his left knee to transfer his weight to his back foot to load up for the pitch.
He seems to use this rocking type motion in his pre-pitch routine to improve his weight transfer during the swing and offset the impact of his no-stride approach. The lack of a stride at the plate may have made it difficult for him to consistently get his weight moving forward to attack the pitch. The rocking motion that he uses offsets this, as it enables him to effectively get his weight moving forward towards the pitch.
However, the one problem that Mesoraco seems to have may be related to this technique. Mesoraco can occasionally get out on his front foot a bit too much in his swing. This is likely a byproduct of his no-stride approach, as his weight transfers forward in the swing, but his front foot does not move forward, so he can get too far over his front foot in the swing.
You can access the link to Mesoraco's MLB draft video here.
Overall, Mesoraco is a very good athlete and has a very nice offensive skillset. Ultimately, he could develop into the rarest of the rare: the offensive catcher.
DEFENSE AND INTANGIBLES
Mesoraco has all the tools to be a very strong defensive catcher. Despite undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2006, Mesoraco has plus arm strength and very good accuracy. His arm action is short and compact, which is what you like to see in a catcher. In addition, he's got good footwork, which enables him to get into a good position to throw.
Mesoraco is a good receiver, as he has soft hands and is accomplished at blocking balls in the dirt. He also has strong leadership skills and a baseball IQ that is off the charts. In short, defensively Mesoraco is exactly what you look for in a catcher.
FUTURE
At this point, there's no need to worry about his slow start in 2007. He got his feet wet and knows what to expect from professional baseball. He can use this off season to get healthy and take what he learned last year to better prepare for the 2008 season.
All in all, I expect a big step forward from Mesoraco in 2008 and he could move well up the list with a strong performance. At this point, he hasn't shown much and high schools catchers are second only to high school pitchers in terms of the risk of flaming out, so he still needs a lot of development time. The best case scenario for Mesoraco is that he develops into the Cincy version of Dodger catcher Russell Martin.
For now, his impressive overall skillset and his intangibles land him at #8 on the list.
Saturday, September 1, 2007
Devin Mesoraco Profile, Video, and Slideshow
The Gulf Coast League wrapped up its regular season play on Monday, August 28th. Unfortunately, the GCL Reds not only missed out on the postseason, but also finished dead last in the Southern Division.
GCL Twins: 37-19
GCL Orioles: 32-24
GCL Red Sox: 30-26
GCL Pirates: 26-30
GCL Reds: 15-41
The end of the season brought about an end to top prospect Devin Mesoraco's first taste of professional baseball. Mesoraco didn't exactly set the world on fire, finishing up at .219/.310/.270/.580, but given that he's straight out of high school and facing professional pitching for the first time it isn't surprising. Given an offseason to re-energize and better prepare for his first full season, the results in 2008 should be much better.
The Official Minor League Baseball website put together a draft profile about Mesoraco, which includes a scouting report on his skill set and a scouting video. Mesoraco profiles well across the board and the video captures his strong arm and impressive athleticism.
The Sarasota Herald Tribune put together an interview with Devin Mesoraco and a slide show on his first season that is worth a look. I'll be excited to see how Mesoraco develops next year, as his impressive athleticism makes me hopeful that he can become the Cincinnati version of Dodger catcher Russell Martin.
Wednesday, August 22, 2007
Down on the Farm: Devin Mesoraco
Now is as good a time as any to check in on the Reds' first round draft pick, Devin Mesoraco. Mesoraco is a catcher that the Reds drafted straight out of Punxsutaweny high school with the #15 pick.
As a senior, Mesoraco put up huge numbers (.467/.632/.911 with 4 HRs and 21 RBI) and captured the Gatorade Player of the Year, which honors the best player in Pennsylvania high school baseball. A season which is even more remarkable, considering that he underwent Tommy John surgery in his sophomore season and spent his entire junior season rehabbing his arm. Obviously, he's made a complete recovery.
Personally, I would have preferred to see the Reds draft Oregon State catcher Mitch Canham, as he has been an integral part of the past two College World Series championship teams and has a pure swing.
High school catchers are about as risky a selection as you can make, as they have a tremendous amount to learn and need a great deal of development time. The only thing that comes with more risk is a high school pitcher. Mesoraco was highly regarded by scouts, but unfortunately a lot can happen before a high school catcher will reach the majors.
That said, it is refreshing to see the Reds draft impact talent at premier defensive positions. As of late, all the Reds good prospects have played corner spots. The more valuable prospects are the ones that play up the middle of the field (c, ss, 2b, cf). Over the past couple of drafts, it seems the Reds focus has shifted towards prospects that play these premier defensive positions (Stubbs, Mesoraco, Frazier, Vailaka, etc), which is nice to see after watching such poor defensive play in Cincinnati over the past few years.
The Reds started Mesoraco with the Gulf Coast League Reds, which is about as low as you can go in minor league system. Unfortunately, Mesoraco has still struggled mightily with the bat. On the season, he's hitting .211/.307/.260/.567 with 14 runs, 1 homerun, and 7 RBI in 123 At Bats.
Given his age and the fact that it is his first taste of professional baseball, his poor performance means very little. Not to mention, he's been dealing with lingering thumb problems, which could also be impacting his performance.
While his performance has been poor, expect a big step forward next season from Mesoraco. He'll be healthy, experienced, and be ready to play. This half season is just for him to get his feet wet, so take the subpar performance with a grain of salt. Next year is when we will be able to see what we've got with Mesoraco.
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