The ball is on Terry Ryan's court: The aftermath of the firing of Ron Gardenhire by the Twins.

Today Terry Ryan held a press conference, in absentia Jim Pohlad & Dave St. Peter, who apparently had better things to do, to announce that Ron Gardenhire will not be returning as the Twins manager in 2015.   The news were so unusual that might be the reason that former Twins manager Tom Kelly suffered a minor stroke today (best wishes Tom.)  Ron Gardenhire's dismissal was long overdue.  It should had happened after the 2006 post-season.  And, as I indicated previously,  I felt that it was done deal at least a month ago.

There are a few strange things about this and I don't think that they are coincidental:

• The Twins' owner and president were not around in the press conference
• Gardenhire was and allegedly was offered a position within the organization (rumors that it is for the roving grouch instructor are not substantiated.)
• There was no word about his coaches, however their contacts are all expired and no renewals were announced and it looks like they are all gone, pending new manager's whim.
• When asked, Ryan said that he knows what type of manager he wants (and went to a great detail describing characteristics) but admitted that he has no list of candidates.
• The kicker is that Terry Ryan was adamant and on the record as late as 8/22 saying that Gardenhire will be back. 

This does not seem like a General Manager who a. wanted to do this and was ready to do it,  b. has the support of his bosses (who did not even bother attending) and c. is facing a serious health issue.  If Gardenhire's firing was demanded and imposed by Ryan's bosses recently, several things could be explained (especially his unpreparedness for a replacement.)  However,  no matter what, Ryan looks like a liar right now.  I would not be surprised if Terry Ryan resigns shortly, before he names a manager and this will probably be better for both him and the Twins. 

Ron Gardenhire is out as the Twins' manager, now what?

The writing is pretty much on the wall.  From this to this, and everything in between, the biggest question in the Twins' Territory is not if this will be Ron Gardenhire's last season as the Twins' manager, it is when will he be replaced.   Enumerating reasons about Gardenhire's replacement right now will be pointless (it was not after the miserable 2006 post-season, when this place was one of the few week voices suggesting that this team will not go anywhere with Gardenhire and Ryan at its helm.   It took the four most miserable consecutive seasons in franchise history, since the move to Minnesota, to actually have some sort of a majority thinking that this might be the case.)  It did not had to take for Ron Gardenhire to accumulate 1000 losses and be one of only seven managers in baseball history to achieve this feat, for this to happen.

As far as the "when" goes, it looks like it will happen sooner than later.  It might happen as soon as this series is over or it might happen after this season.   I suspect that Gardenhire will be allowed to leave on his own terms and retire riding into the sunset like Clayton Moore, instead of being forced out.  This franchise does things this way (and it is fine.)   For the record, my bet is that Gardenhire does not finish the season and for practical reasons (like not enough bodies to sit in the dugout) they will wait until minor league play is over to do it.  It has a bit more oomph if it is done during the season and that's what I think they will do.  I have never seen so many main press sources either re-iterating how sick and tired Gardenhire is lately, or how sad and "remote" Ryan seems lately.  Something is about to happen, folks, in the land of ten thousand lakes, and it does not involve soaking cod in lye in a bathtub.

The "what" is more important:  What will happen after Gardy is gone?  Potentially, this would be another case of rearranging coaching chairs (c. 2012, when they blamed the lost season on Jerry and Stelly and did a round robin with the rest.)  If Tonto is still around when Kemo Sabe is gone (utterly love the sarcasm of the advertizing copy placement on that shot in so many levels, btw), it will be another failure.   It will also be a failure is Scotty and Vavry and Steiny and Bruno were kept.  They are part of the problem as well.  They need to go.  The jury is still out on Paul Molitor, who has instituted some improvements already, like the defensive shifts, and Bobby Cuellar, who I think has not given an opportunity to do what he can do with this staff in the shade of Anderson.

Fresh thoughts and ideas are needed in this Franchise.  And, of course, this starts in the front office.  I think that Terry Ryan will also retire after this season, and health issues will be sited.  He does have a bigger battle than the Twins' to fight at this point and wishing him the best.  If I were the Pohlads, I would offer someone like Joe Maddon a position similar to what Nolan Ryan had with the Rangers or Tony LaRussa has with the Diamondbacks and give him carte blanche to fix the team (and if he still likes to manage, let him manage as well.)

But this is another long story, better saved for later...

Ron Gardenhire is out as the Twins' manager, now what?

The writing is pretty much on the wall.  From this to this, and everything in between, the biggest question in the Twins' Territory is not if this will be Ron Gardenhire's last season as the Twins' manager, it is when will he be replaced.   Enumerating reasons about Gardenhire's replacement right now will be pointless (it was not after the miserable 2006 post-season, when this place was one of the few week voices suggesting that this team will not go anywhere with Gardenhire and Ryan at its helm.   It took the four most miserable consecutive seasons in franchise history, since the move to Minnesota, to actually have some sort of a majority thinking that this might be the case.)  It did not had to take for Ron Gardenhire to accumulate 1000 losses and be one of only seven managers in baseball history to achieve this feat, for this to happen.

As far as the "when" goes, it looks like it will happen sooner than later.  It might happen as soon as this series is over or it might happen after this season.   I suspect that Gardenhire will be allowed to leave on his own terms and retire riding into the sunset like Clayton Moore, instead of being forced out.  This franchise does things this way (and it is fine.)   For the record, my bet is that Gardenhire does not finish the season and for practical reasons (like not enough bodies to sit in the dugout) they will wait until minor league play is over to do it.  It has a bit more oomph if it is done during the season and that's what I think they will do.  I have never seen so many main press sources either re-iterating how sick and tired Gardenhire is lately, or how sad and "remote" Ryan seems lately.  Something is about to happen, folks, in the land of ten thousand lakes, and it does not involve soaking cod in lye in a bathtub.

The "what" is more important:  What will happen after Gardy is gone?  Potentially, this would be another case of rearranging coaching chairs (c. 2012, when they blamed the lost season on Jerry and Stelly and did a round robin with the rest.)  If Tonto is still around when Kemo Sabe is gone (utterly love the sarcasm of the advertizing copy placement on that shot in so many levels, btw), it will be another failure.   It will also be a failure is Scotty and Vavry and Steiny and Bruno were kept.  They are part of the problem as well.  They need to go.  The jury is still out on Paul Molitor, who has instituted some improvements already, like the defensive shifts, and Bobby Cuellar, who I think has not given an opportunity to do what he can do with this staff in the shade of Anderson.

Fresh thoughts and ideas are needed in this Franchise.  And, of course, this starts in the front office.  I think that Terry Ryan will also retire after this season, and health issues will be sited.  He does have a bigger battle than the Twins' to fight at this point and wishing him the best.  If I were the Pohlads, I would offer someone like Joe Maddon a position similar to what Nolan Ryan had with the Rangers or Tony LaRussa has with the Diamondbacks and give him carte blanche to fix the team (and if he still likes to manage, let him manage as well.)

But this is another long story, better saved for later...

Twins' Ron Gardenhire is in a rare company among managers, and not because of the 1000 losses.

Today Ron Gardenhire achieved his 1000 loss as a Twins' manager.   In an interview with Mike Berardino, Gardenhire said that 1000 losses is an indicative of longevity, as is 1000 wins.   Is it so?

Here is a list of all managers who have lost 1000 games in their career, with Gardenhire being the 50th:

1 Connie Mack (HOF) 3948 - 9 AL Championships, 5 World Championships
2 Tony La Russa (HOF) 2365 - 3 AL Championships, 3 NL Championships, 3 World Championships   
3 Bucky Harris (HOF) 2219 - 3 AL Championships, 2 World Championships   
4 Gene Mauch 2037 -----    Minnesota Twins (1976–1980)   
5 Bobby Cox (HOF) 2001 5 NL Championships, 1 World Championship               
6 Joe Torre (HOF) 1997 6 AL Championships, 4 World Championships
7 John McGraw (HOF) 1948 10 NL Championships, 3 World Championships   
8 Casey Stengel (HOF) 1843 10 AL Championships, 7 World Championships   
9 Sparky Anderson (HOF)    1834 4 NL Championsips, 1 AL Championship, 3 World Championships   
10 Jim Leyland 1769 1 NL Championship, 2 AL Championships, 1 World Championship   
11 Bill McKechnie (HOF)    1723 4 NL Championships, 2 World Championships
12 Lou Piniella    1713  1 NL Championship, 1 World Championship   
13 Leo Durocher (HOF) 1709 3 NL Championships, 1 World Championship
14 Walter Alston (HOF) 1613 74 NL Championships, 4 World Championships   
15 Bruce Bochy    1573  3 NL Championships, 2 World Championships
16 Jimmy Dykes    1541 -----
17 Ralph Houk 1531 3 AL Championships, 2 World Championships   
18 Dusty Baker 1504 1 NL Championship
19 Dick Williams (HOF)     1451 3 AL Championsips, 1 NL Championship, 2 World Championships
20 Tom Lasorda (HOF) 1439 4 NL Championships, 2 World Championships
21 Wilbert Robinson (HOF) 1398    2 NL Championships
22 Chuck Tanner     1381 1 NL Championship, 1 World Championship   
23 Clark Griffith (HOF) 1367  1 AL Championship   
24 Joe McCarthy (HOF) 1333 8 AL Championsips, 1 NL Championship, 7 World Championships   
25 Bill Rigney 1321 ------ Minnesota Twins (1970–1972)   
26 Tom Kelly 1244 2 AL Championships, 2 World Championships       
27 John McNamara 1233 1 AL Championship       
28 Lou Boudreau (HOF) 1224 1 AL Championship, 1 World Championship
29 Fred Clarke (HOF) 1181  4 NL Championships, 1 World Championship
30 Frank Robinson (HOF)     1176 -----
31 Mike Hargrove  1173 2 AL Championships,    
32 Bobby Valentine 1165     1 NL Championship   
33 Ned Hanlon (HOF) 1164 5 NL Championships
34 Buck Showalter 1138 -------
35 Art Howe 1137 --------
36 Miller Huggins (HOF)    1134 6 AL Championships, 3 World Championships
37 Whitey Herzog (HOF)    1125 3 NL Championships, 1 World Championship   
38 Jim Fregosi 1094 1 NL Championship       
39 Frankie Frisch (HOF) 1078  1 NL Championship, 1 World Championship
40 Mike Scioscia 1072  1 AL Championship, 1 World Championship    
41 Davey Johnson 1071 1 NL Championship, 1 World Championship    
42 Charlie Grimm 1067 3 NL Championships
43 Earl Weaver (HOF) 1060 4 AL Championships, 1 World Championship    
44 Joe Cronin (HOF)  1055 2 AL Championships
45 Phil Garner 1054 1 NL Championship   
46 Terry Francona 1032    2 AL Championships, 2 World Championships
47 Felipe Alou 1021 -------
48 Billy Martin    1013 2 AL Championships, 1 World Championship
49 Al Lopez (HOF) 1004    2 AL Championships   
50 Ron Gardenhire  1000 ------  

So Ron Gardenhire is the 7th among 50 managers who managed long enough to lose 1000 and have never led their team to a World Series.   This dubious company includes Gene Mauch, Jimmy Dykes, Bill Rigney (along with Mauch, former Twins' managers,) Buck Showalter, Art Howe and Felipe Alou.

For his 1000th win, Ron Gardenhire received a custom humidor as an award.  Being in this select company among the 7 biggest loser managers, Gardenhire deserves another award:

Myth Busting: The Rich Anderson Legacy or the Twins' pitching in the 00s

I think that a lot of the Minnesota Twins' fans have been frustrated with the way the Twins have been performing this and the last season.  Some of us have been frustrated even longer, since the Twins have last won a World Series in 1991.  That was 21 seasons ago.  Kids who were born then they can now buy booze.  Not good.

Anecdotally, there have been a lot of remarks and thoughts about the Twins trying to create cookie cutter pitchers, about Ron Anderson (who was named the pitching coach when Ron Gardenhire was named the manager in 2001) wanted everyone in the whole organization to throw the 2 seamer and pitch to contact.

But gut feelings and all, this blog is about substantiated evidence and numbers.  So here is what I did, and here is what I am presenting:  I looked at all pitchers who wore a Twins' uniform this Millennium and compared how they did while with the Twins vs. how they did after they left the Twins. I went as far as 2009-10 (but some of the latest losses have inconclusive numbers).

And here is the honor roll.  A list of 20 pitchers who did better after they left the Twins, when they were older, when they were past their prime.  Not one or two (like Jose Reyes who did phenomenally while with the Twins) but 20.  It cannot be a coincidence.   And I am not even including pitchers like Sergio Santos and Peter Moylan on whom the Twins gave up before they ever gave them a chance.

Here is Rick Anderson's (ok a couple are before his time) Honor Roll:

Luis Ayala:

Twins 2009 (age 31) : 4.18 ERA, 1.423 WHIP, 5.8 K/9, 2.63 K/BB (was cut)
Yankees 2011 (age 33) : 2.09 ERA, 1.268 WHIP, 6.3 K/9, 1.95 K/BB
Orioles 2012 (age 34) : 1.82 ERA, 1.054 WHIP, 5.1 K/9, 2.80 K/BB

Grand Balfour:

Twins (2001-2004 ages 23-26) : 4.63 ERA, 1.456 WHIP, 9.8 K/9, 1.95 K/BB
Rays (2007-2010 ages 29-32) : 3.33 ERA, 1.212 WHIP, 10.4 K/9, 2.6 K/BB
Athletics (2011-2012 ages 33-34) : 2.78 ERA, 1.145 WHIP, 8 K/9, 2.52 K/BB

Joe Beimel:

Twins (2004, age 27) : 43.20 ERA, 6 WHIP, 1.2 IP (was cut)
LA Dodgers (2006-2008, ages 29-31) 3.04 ERA, 1.336 WHIP, 4.9 K/8, 1.53 K/BB
Nationals (2009 age 32) 3.40 ERA, 1.336 WHIP, 5.4 K/8, 1.6 K/BB
Rockies (2009-10 ages 32-33) : 3.56 ERA, 1.385 WHIP, 4.7 K/9, 1.68 K/BB

Craig Breslow:

Twins 2008-9 (ages 27-28) : 2.89 ERA, 1.132 WHIP, 7.3 K/9, 1.72 K/BB (was cut)
Oakland 2009-11 (ages 28-30) : 3.14 ERA, 1.199 WHIP, 7.6 K/9, 2.34 K/BB
Arizona 2012 (age 31) : 2.13 ERA, 1.026 WHIP, 7.8 K/9, 2.2 K/BB


Jesse Crain:

Twins 2004-10 (ages 22-28) : 3.42 ERA, 1.257 WHIP, 6.2 K/9, 1.87 K/BB
White Sox 2011-12 (ages 29-30) : 2.37 ERA, 1.180 WHIP, 9.8 K/9, 2.42 K/BB

Jack Cressend:

Twins (2000-2001 ages 25-27) : 4.59 ERA, 1.480 WHIP, 6 K/9, 1.66 K/BB
Indians (2003-2004 ages 28-29) : 3.53 ERA, 1.381 WHIP, 5.5 K/9 1.89 K/BB


R.A. Dickey:

Twins: 2009 (age 34) : 4.62 ERA, 1.617 WHIP, 5.9 K/9, 1.4 K/BB
Mets: 2010-12 (ages 35-37) 3.08 ERA, 1.193 WHIP, 6 K/9, 2.65 K/BB

Willie Eyre:

Twins 2006 (age 27) : 5.31 ERA, 1.635 WHIP, 3.9 K/9, 1.18 K/BB
Texas 2007-9 (ages 28-30) : 5.02 ERA, 1.558 WHIP, 5.2 K/9, 1.32 K/BB
Baltimore 2011 (age 32) : 3.44 ERA, 0.927 WHIP, 4.9 K/9, 2 K/BB

Aaron Fultz:

Twins (2004, age 30) : 5.04 ERA, 1.460 WHIP, 6.7 K/9, 1.61 K/BB
Phillies (2005-6 ages 31-32) : 3.38 ERA, 1.239 WHIP, 7.3 K/9, 2.27 K/BB
Indians (2007, age 33) : 2.92 ERA, 1.324 WHIP, 6.8, 1.56 K/BB

Matt Garza:

Twins 2006-7 (ages 22-23) : 4.47 ERA, 1.602 WHIP, 7.1 K/9, 1.91 K/BB
Rays 2008-10 (ages 24-26) : 3.86 ERA, 1.251 WHIP, 7.1 K/9, 2.32 K/BB
Cubs 2011-12 (ages 27-28) : 3.51 ERA, 1.237 WHIP, 8.8 K/9, 3.00 K/BB

LaTroy Hawkins:

Twins: (SP/RP 1995-2003 ages 22-30): 5.05 ERA, 1.523 WHIP, 5.9 K/9, 1.83 K/BB
Twins: (RP: 2000-2003 ages 27-30): 3.09 ERA, 1.271 WHIP, 7.1 K/9, 2.31 K/BB
Cubs: (2004-2005 ages 31-32) : 2.76 ERA, 1.099 WHIP, 7.3 K/9, 3.9 K/BB

Livan Hernandez:

Twins 2008 (age 33) : 5.48 ERA, 1.632 WHIP, 3.5 K/9, 1.86 K/BB
Nationals 2009-11 (ages 34-36) 4.17 ERA, 1.363 WHIP, 5.0 K/9, 1.82 K/BB
Atlanta 2012 (age 37) : 3.68 ERA, 1.389 WHIP, 5.8 K/9, 2.38 K/BB

Phil Humber:

Twins 2008-9 (ages 25-26) : 6.10 ERA, 2.032 WHIP, 6.5 K/9, 1.07 K/BB
Royals 2010 (age 27) : 4.15 ERA, 1.338 WHIP, 6.6 K/9, 2.29 K/BB
White Sox 2011-12 (ages 28-29) : 4.14 ERA, 1.219 WHIP, 6.8 K/9, 2.55 K/BB

Mike Lincoln:

Twins (1999-2000 ages 24-25) : 7.70 ERA, 1.825 WHIP, 3.9 K/9, 1.08 K/BB
Pirates (2001-2003 ages 26-28) : 3.50 ERA, 1.362 WHIP, 6.2 K/9, 2 K/BB

Kyle Lohse:

Twins 2001-2006 (ages 22-27) : 4.88 ERA, 1.447 WHIP, 5.6 K/9, 1.94 K/BB
Reds 2006-2007 (ages 27-28) : 4.58 ERA, 1.361 WHIP, 6.1 K/9, 2.52 K/BB
Cardinals 2008-2012 (ages 29-33) : 4.18 ERA, 1.332 WHIP, 5.4 K/9, 2.33 K/BB

Jose Mijares:

Twins 2009-11 (ages 23-26) : 3.16 ERA, 1.315 WHIP, 6.9 K/9, 1.9 K/BB
Royals 2012 (age 27) : 2.49 ERA, 1.200 WHIP, 6.6 K/9, 4.0 K/BB

Mark Redman:
Twins (1999-2001 ages 25-27) : 4.86 ERA, 1.469 WHIP, 6.6 K/9, 2.21 K/BB
Detroit (2001-2002 ages 27-28) : 4.29 ERA, 1.307 WHIP, 4.8 K/9, 2.05 K/BB
Florida (2003 age 29) : 3.59 ERA, 1.222 WHIP, 7.1 K/9, 2.48 K/BB

JC Romero:

Twins: (1999-2005 ages 23-29) : 4.35 ERA, 1.482 WHIP, 7.4 K/9, 1.61 K/BB
Philies: (2007-2011 ages 31-35) : 2.73 ERA, 1.406 WHIP, 7.3 K/9, 1.14 K/BB

Brad Thomas:

Twins (2001-2004 ages 23-26) : 9.89 ERA, 2.155 WHIP, 3 K/9, 0.85 K/BB
Tigers (2010-2011 ages 32-33) : 4.59 ERA, 1.606 WHIP, 4.1 K/9, 1.06 K/BB








That is a lot of opportunity lost.   A lot of adverse results.  And this does not even include the current pitchers.  It is not one or two or 3.  Twenty.  The Twins can just not ignore this  any more...

Twins, Gardenhire and Maritime Law

When Francesco Schettino, the captain of Costa Concordia, abandoned his sinking ship last January, it made international news . But he was not alone, to quote a very interesting Discovery channel article: "Considered one of the most infamous crimes in maritime law, [this] act of cowardice has many precedents in history.", and goes on to list several of the previous captains who have abandoned ship.

 Today, another name needs to be added to the list: Ronald Clyde Gardenhire.

With the excuse that he needs to attend his daughter's college graduation, he left his team (with the worse record in baseball) hours after a sweep was completed with a no-hitter against the Twins, to go home to Minnesota for a 4-day weekend. The Twins will join him after they finish their 3 game series at Seattle against the Mariners. He was so ready to get out of town that he caught a red-eye flight the night of the sweep and rushed reporters out off his office to make the flight.  Before the blood even dried.  Before he could have a single team meeting.

College graduation is an important personal event and the father should be there, but, looking at the details a little closer, it is obvious that it is just an excuse for Ron Gardenhire to take a break and leave the team he led to the worse record in the majors, on the very night of arguably their lowest point in the season. Let's look at the facts:

• Ron Gardenhire's daughter is attending the Southwest Minnesota State University at Marshall, MN. According to the University's web site, commencement takes place at 10 AM this Saturday. Commencement exercises of schools that size, usually take about 1.5-2 hours. The Twins are playing the Mariners at Seattle this Friday at 7:10 PM, this Saturday at 6:10 PM and this Sunday at 1:10 PM (all local, PDT times.)
• The drive to Marshall, MN home of the Southwest Minnesota State University, where his daughter is graduating at 10 AM is 2 hrs and 46 minutes according to Bing maps. The ride from the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport to Safeco Park, where the Twins are playing this weekend, according the same source, takes 18 minutes. Also Marshall is the home of the Southwest Minnesota Regional Airport.
• It takes about 3 hrs to fly from the Twin Cities area to Seattle and vice versa

Given those facts, Ron Gardenhire had 3 options:

• Option 1: Stay with the sinking ship, making the flight to Seattle, managing the team Friday night and taking a private plane (I assume that the Pohlads or the team would allow the use of their private planes, esp if Gardenhire pitched in for gas; or he could have arranged for one) that night or early morning to Marshall arriving in plenty of time for the graduation. Also a 2 PM Marshall departure which would allow plenty of time for pictures and a lunch, would have had him back in Seattle by 3 PM local time, plenty of time to go to the ballpark and manage the 6:10 Saturday game. This way, he would have done his duty to his family and his team. There was no conflict, just inconvenience and cost.
• Option 2: Stay with the sinking ship, making the flight to Seattle, managing the team Friday night and taking the red eye commercial flight Friday night. I want to think that someone who makes millions a year can afford a private plane and that he has access to the team's plane, but let's say that he does not. Delta Airlines flight 1014 leaves Seattle at 12:30 AM local time Saturday morning and arrives in Minneapolis at 5:46 AM local time. Plenty of time to arrive at Marshall at about 8:30 for the 10:00 commencement. The ceremony ends around 11:30 AM. The ride to the airport might make the 2:20 PM flight arriving Seattle at 3:35 PM (in time to manage the whole game) a bit tight (and I assume that he is poor enough not to get private air transport from Marshall to Minneapolis), but the next flight leaving at 5:35 PM and arriving at Seattle at 7:13 PM is doable and allows him to spend an hour or two for lunch and pictures before he joins the Twins. Arriving at Seattle at 7:13 will get him at the ballpark and in uniform before 8:00 PM (the ride is only 18 minutes according to Bing Maps). That is about half way into the game. So he would have missed only half a game and do his paternal duty, but be a bit inconvenienced also.
• Option 3: Abandon the sinking ship, taking the next flight out in the middle of the night, arriving in his Minnesota home more than 2 days before he needed to be there, stay longer than he needs to be there, miss Sunday's game.  Let his team come to him in Minnesota and play alone, headless, three games at Seattle right after they were swept by the Angels, right after a no-hitter against them, while he is having a nice and comfy 4-day weekend.  That was the option chosen.

Maritime Law is stern and specific. The Twins' front office has (vaguely) been talking about "accountability" last off-season. The captain abandoned his ship. And he did not have to. The facts are there. It is more than time that the ship finds a new captain who respects his position and follows his duty, trying to right it when it is ready to break, instead of abandoning it and let it sink even further.

Why was Luke Hughes cut by the Twins? The plot thickens...

Yesterday, I have written why Luke Hughes got a rotten deal but the Twins, but I think I let another reason out: this was a great way for Twins' manager Ron Gardenhire to get his consanguine Drew Butera up to majors, claiming that he could use 3 catchers.

Interestingly enough, Stealing a page from Pontius Pilatus' book, Terry Ryan, the Twins' interim GM, washed his hands from accountability on player personnel decisions in the Twins' organization, especially the Luke Hughes release, attributing those decisions to Ron Gardenhire and proclaimed that his role is "just" that of a facilitator (last paragraph in the linked article.)

So Terry Ryan's role is to "facilitate" Ron Gardenhire's personnel decisions. Yesterday, within half day after I tweeted this, my fears about Gardenhire's true intentions were confirmed by Rhett Bollinger the Twins' MLB.com beat writer... Also in the last paragraph of this writeup by La Velle Neal and in the last paragraph of this one by Rhett Bollinger, albeit a bit subdued by quotes of Gardenhire not being sure of what he wants to do and that he wants "to do the right thing" (unfortunately, the time for the latter has passed...)

Here is the reason why Luke Hughes was released:


  
When that decision will be announced, expect to hear about how that will provide the club with versatility and about how much better Drew has been hitting this season in Rochester. Meanwhile, hints like the ones I mentioned previously about Butera's ascent to the major leagues will be coming slowly and steadily...

I hope that the Twins' fans and ownership have long enough memories and hold accountable the people who are responsible for losing...

No title...

Can the Twins win the World Series as is?

Here is some food for thought, after the Twins were swept by the Yankees yesterday, further contributing to a dismal record at Yankee stadium under Gardenhire (3-23).

My premise is simple: for a team to win the world series, it will have to beat teams that made it to the post season.

Here is how the Gardenhire Twins fared against postseason teams during Gardenhire's tenure (in bold are the seasons when the Twins won the division):

2008:

Rays: 3-3
Red Sox: 3-4
Angels: 3-5
White Sox: 10-9

total: 19-21


2007:

Red Sox: 3-4
Yankees: 2-5
Indians: 4-14
Angels: 3-6

total: 12-29

2006:

Yankees: 3-3
Tigers: 6-12
Athletics: 6-4

total: 15-18

2005:

Yankees: 3-3
Red Sox: 2-4
White Sox: 7-11
Angels: 4-6

total: 16-24

2004:

Yankees: 2-4
Red Sox: 4-2
Angels: 4-5

total: 10-11


2003:

Yankees: 0-7
Red Sox: 4-2
Athletics: 8-1

total: 12-10



2002:

Yankees: 0-6
Athletics: 3-6
Angels: 5-4

Total: 9-16




Total overall record against postseason teams: 93-129 (.419, equivalent of a 94 loss season)

Other than 2003, when the Twins had a 12-10 record against post-season teams, the Gardenhire led Twins had a losing record every season, even in their division championship seasons accumulating a .419 record. This is not world champion material.

Something here is very wrong and I suspect that it starts with the manager...

Doing Things the Twins' way: Uncle Ron's and Cousin Joe's Small-ball Shop of Horrors

One of the Twins' maxims has been that they are proud to be doing things the Twins' way, which translates to "doing the little things right", in other words: hitting and running, advancing runners to scoring position, taking an extra base here and there; in other words: small-ball.

How has that pride and joy helped the Twins during the Gardenhire years? Let's examine the facts. One way to look at it is that if the method is successful, one would assume that a team would need fewer hits to score runs. That would be efficient way of playing. In this way, you make the best of each hit and score more runs than the competition with fewer hits. This is a recipe for winning. The following graph spans every season from TK's last season, 2001 (1) to 2009 (9). I am plotting total hits over runs (i.e. how many hits it takes to score a run) for the Twins (blue), the AL average (burgundy) and the AL champion (yellow; for 2009 I am using the team with the best AL record, Toronto):



As you can clearly see, the Twins need more hits to score a run than the average AL team and the team that wins the pennant usually scored more runs with fewer hits than the average. And (other than 2008), the situation has gotten worse with Joe Vavra as the hitting coach.

Conclusion 1: Small-ball, i.e. doing the little things right, i.e the Twins' way is hurting the Twins.

How much?

Let's quantify:



This is the table that is used to create the graph above. The columns are years, Twins Hits/Run, AL Average Hits/Run and AL Champion Hits/Run for every season (the last column is the difference of the Twins' squad from that of the AL Champion every season, but it is unimportant in the calculation)

The averages of all 10 seasons are underneath each column. The ratios of the Twins average to those of the other averages are noted under each column. Still, all these are ratios, fractions and small numbers; how do they translate in concrete terms.

There we go:



here is a table with the runs the Twins scored each season since 2002 and the runs they would have scored that season, if they were scoring runs at the rate of an average AL team based on the number of their hits and if they were scoring runs at the rate of the AL champion based on the number of their hits. The two last columns are the difference for how many runs the Twins scored and how many they would have scored, if they were translating their hits into runs as effective as the average AL team or the AL Champion. I averaged the values of the last two columns and came to this conclusion:

Doing things the Twins' way, cost this team between 40 and 73 runs every season.

And if you calculate about 5 runs per win, this is costing between 8 and 15 wins a season.

That is concrete. And it is so concrete, that in other words I could have called this little piece: "Honey I've shrunk the offense"

Decisions, decisions, decisions.

Last night's game was a big disappointment for the Twins' Fans: The bats were alive, but Slowey and Ayala were not on the top of their game, resulting to turning the game in the favor of the Blue Jays, pretty quickly at the late innings.

Here is a closer look to the win probability graph by fangraphs:



I marked 2 points with asterisks (*1, *2 and *3), because I think they were the turning points of the game and they were bad decisions by Ron Gardenhire:

*1: Kevin Slowey has been struggling throughout the game, but Gardenhire sends him in to start the 6th inning. At this point, the Twins are about 85% win probability. If Slowey left the game then, and the Twins won, he would have been credited with the win. Slowey allows a hit to Rolen. Instead of taking him out at that point, Gardenhire lets him face the next batter (in a manner similar to that allowing Liriano to face multiple hitters after he walked in a run with the bases loaded in the last game of the Chicago series). Overbay hits a home run and the Jays are within 2. A little too late, after facing 2 more batters and walking one, Gardenhire lifts Slowey for Guerrier. Guerrier finishes the inning and starts the next. Breslow replaces him in the 7th after he gives a hit and strikes out the only batter he faces. At this point, Gardenhire, uses Breslow again only to face a single lefty hitter and replaces him with Ayala who finishes the 7th giving a hit and driving a run with 2 outs to bring the Jays within 1 (6-5 Twins)

*2: Top of the 8th inning. You would think that Crain is the 8th inning man, esp. with Ayala having problems the previous inning, who can provide a bridge to Nathan. But this is not the case: Gardenhire keeps Ayala in. A double and a home run later, the Twins' win probability drops from 75% to 15% and the score is Jays 8, Twins 6. That was the biggest turning point of the game

*3: Bottom of the 8th, the Twins hitters are staging a comeback: Brendan Harris doubles to start the inning and goes to third with no outs on a wild pitch. Delmon Young is up. The Twins have a great batter and the best AL Centerfielder in Carlos Gomez on the bench, one would think that getting Gomez in to sacrifice Harris (or get a bunt base hit) would be the proper play (or at least have Young try for the sacrifice). The win probability with Harris at 3rd, nobody out and the Twins down by 2 runs, climbed up to 30%. Young strikes out. Gardenhire, still going for a 2-run homer instead of getting the man from third in with a sacrifice, substitutes Crede for Morales. Crede strikes out. Punto strikes out. Inning over.

Last season, Gardenhire's mismanagement of the pitching staff and the bullpen, cost the Twins the division championship. He was rewarded with a contract extension. Apparently he has not yet learned his lessons from last season. I hope he learns them pretty quickly before this season gets out of hand.

Oh well...

Crap happens, but it doesn't have to happen like that: burn the best pitchers in your pen when you are 3 runs behind and play lefty/righty match ups.

So, for tomorrow only Duensing and Humber will be rested enough to bridge the starter to Nathan. Rejoice...

Here is a quote when pondering the starting lineup for the opener.

Last winter, after the Fargo gaffe, Ron Gardenhire gave an interview to scout.com. Among other things he was asked about who he will start in the outfield. Here is his response:

Gardenhire: Well, they have to earn it. In the course of spring training next year, they will decide who is going to be out there playing. Either they get it done or they don’t. I don’t have to decide stuff like that, unless they all hit .500 in spring training and that makes it a little more difficult. But they have to decide who is going to go out there and play.

As a reminder:

This spring training:

Cuddyer .317/.358/.583, 2 HR, 5 BB. 9 RBI (60 AB)
Gomez .283/.358/.583, 3 HR, 6 BB, 5 SB, 8 RBI (60 AB)
Young .292/.313/.492, 3 HR, 1 SB, 9 RBI (65 AB)
Span .190/.274/.286, 1 HR, 9 BB, 2 SB, 10 RBI (84 AB)

Opening day lineup:

Span LF, Gomez CF, Cuddyer RF

This is not perjury, but Ron Gardenhire is a liar, any way you slice it.

Gardy, Gardy, Gardy...

The latest from the manager of the millennium from the North Dakota Forum (you need to register for access), talking about his outfield:

“Those three guys (Gomez, Span and Cuddyer) need to play every day,” said Gardenhire, in Fargo to speak at an agricultural trade show. “Delmon is in the mix. He’s a hell of a player, a hell of a talent. But to me, those three guys should be your outfield and then you go from there.”

Why is that inane?

1. You should never make negative public statements about your players (and Gardy has been guilty of that many times). Did he really need to talk about his outfield in an "agricultural trade show"?

2. You should never say who is going to be your starting outfielder in December, before Spring training, before the roster is set. This smells prejudice and it is stupid not to only count but name your eggs before they hatch

3. Young outplayed both Gomez and Cuddyer last year a fact that Gardy either does not realize (which means he does not have baseball sense) or ignores (which means he is prejudiced).

Any way you cut it, it’s bad, but at least it happened in a proper forum (a bull trading show)

Gardy has already burned enough bridges with players arranging from superstar level (Ortiz) to serviceable+ major leaguers (Romero, Lohse) to budding stars (Garza, Liriano) with his bullheaded judgmental closedmindedness. And this organization rewarded him with a non-deserved extension. If he messes up with Young, it should be the last straw…

back to hitting

Great article about Young and Gomez. If you can't read it, the gist is that Gomez and Young have a batting average of .324 and .320 respectively when they are hitting pitches in the zone and .181 and .206 respectively when they are trying to hit pitches outside the zone. The writer is pleading for patience from Gomez and Young, but I believe that the true cause of the problem is bad coaching, as I argued in the last several posts here. Effective managers and hitting coaches would have seen the problem and tried to make changes. Apparently Gardy and Varva don't...

And yet, there is more

For the sake of completeness, here are the road splits for every MLB team, ranked by decreased home to road era (the differential in parenthesis) along with their home stadium factor (the second parenthesis):

Pittsburgh 2008: Home ERA 3.75, Road ERA 6.59 (+2.84) (98)
Twins 2008: Home ERA 3.32, Road ERA 5.69 (+2.37) (96)
Tampa 2008: Home ERA 2.87, Road ERA 5.05 (+2.18) (100)
San Diego 2008: Home ERA 3.38, Road ERA 5.10 (+1.72) (91)
Milwaukee 2008: Home ERA 3.36, Road ERA 4.95 (+1.59) (101)
Dodgers 2008: Home ERA 3.35, Road ERA 4.51 (+1.19) (105)
Cleveland 2008: Home ERA 3.57, Road ERA 4.75 (+1.18) (102)
Oakland 2008: Home ERA 3.01, Road ERA 4.02 (+1.01) (93)
Mets 2008: Home ERA 3.57, Road ERA 4.58 (+1.01) (96)
Boston 2008: Home ERA 3.45, Road ERA 4.27 (+.82) (105)
Reds 2008: Home ERA 4.05, Road ERA 4.85 (+.80) (105)
Toronto 2008: Home ERA 3.24, Road ERA 3.95 (+.71) (99)
Colorado 2008: Home ERA 4.35, Road ERA 4.97 (+.62) (108)
MLB 2008: Home ERA 3.89, Road ERA 4.48 (+.59) (100)
Kansas City 2008: Home ERA 4.20, Road ERA 4.75 (+.55) (104)
Seattle 2008: Home ERA 4.41, Road ERA 4.95 (+.54) (96)
Cubs 2008: Home ERA 3.44, Road ERA 3.92 (+.48) (105)
Atlanta 2008: Home ERA 3.52, Road ERA 3.98 (+.46) (96)
White Sox 2008: Home ERA 3.31, Road ERA 3.70 (+.39) (105)
Philadelphia 2008: Home ERA 3.71, Road ERA 4.04 (+.33) (104)
Baltimore 2008: Home ERA 4.20, Road ERA 4.47 (+.27) (102)
Marlins 2008: Home ERA 4.37, Road ERA 4.55 (+.18) (97)
Detroit 2008: Home ERA 4.53, Road ERA 4.59 (+.06) (101)
Texas 2008: Home ERA 4.96, Road ERA 4.92 (+.04) (100)
Yankees 2008: Home ERA 4.13, Road ERA 4.10 (-.03) (99)
Giants 2008: Home ERA 4.45, Road ERA 4.36 (-.11) (100)
St Louis 2008: Home ERA 4.16, Road ERA 3.89 (-.27) (99)
Nationals 2008: Home ERA 4.80, Road ERA 4.41 (-.39) (100)
Houston 2008: Home ERA 4.95, Road ERA 4.20 (-.75) (99)
Arizona 2008: Home ERA 4.32, Road ERA 3.45 (-1.13) (106)
Angels 2008: Home ERA 4.44, Road ERA 3.21 (-1.23) (100)

What is clear from this is that, surprisingly, there is no correlation between home/road ERA differential and park factor of the home park. There are 3 teams, Pittsburgh, the Twins and Tampa Bay, which have really bad home/road ERA differentials this year. It's all about planning, managing and coaching. The current Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay managers and coaches have been regarded as 'not that great'; however, the Twins manager, has been regarded as 'one of the best in the game'. Who lies? numbers or opinions?

Even more about pitching

The 4 game differential in the previous post is somewhat high level and I wanted to get a bit more granular to increase the accuracy of the statistical argument.

Here are the home road splits posted previously:

Joe Nathan: Home ERA 0.86,Road ERA 2.79
Dennys Reyes: Home ERA 1.32,Road ERA 4.00
Matt Guerrier: Home ERA 1.46, Road ERA 5.74
Jesse Crain: Home ERA 1.47, Road ERA 4.72
Nick Blackburn: Home ERA 2.20, Road ERA 5.06
Scott Baker: Home ERA 2.28,Road ERA 4.60
Brian Bass: Home ERA 3.20, Road ERA 6.95
Livan Hernandez: Home ERA 3.86, Road ERA 7.0
Boof Bonser: Home ERA 5.73,Road ERA 8.55

additionally pitchers not currently with the team are:

Juan Rincon: Home ERA 3.68,Road ERA 8.78
Pat Neshek: Home ERA 1.29,Road ERA 8.53
Bobby Korecky: Home ERA 6.00,Road ERA 2.45
Francisco Liriano: Home ERA 5.40,Road ERA 16.88

by subtracting road from home era, subtracting the differential between the league average Home ERA 3.89, Road ERA 4.48 (.59) and dividing by 9 to get runs per inning pitched that the team would have gained if the Twins' pitchers were pitching on the road with the same effectiveness that the league average pitcher does, based on home ERA:

Joe Nathan: 0.15 R/IP
Dennys Reyes: 0.23 R/IP
Matt Guerrier: 0.41 R/IP
Jesse Crain: 0.30 R/IP
Nick Blackburn: 0.25 R/IP
Scott Baker: 0.19 R/IP
Brian Bass: 0.35 R/IP
Livan Hernandez: 0.28 R/IP
Boof Bonser: 0.25 R/IP
Juan Rincon: 0.50 R/IP
Pat Neshek: 0.74 R/IP
Francisco Liriano: 1.21 R/IP


Looking at the Twins road losses and adjusting the score based on the above numbers (i.e. if Livan Hernandez pitched 5 innings and Brian Bass 4, in a hypothetical 5-0 loss, the adjusted score would be 5-(0.28*5 )-(0.35*4)= 2-0. To make it fair to the particular game, if a pitcher did not allow any runs, his differential will not be counted. Here is a list of those road losses, the original score and the adjusted score, along with win loss differential for the Twins and other AL Central teams:

Apr 7 @CHW act: L 4-7 adj: L 4-5
Apr 13 @KCR act: L 1-5 adj: W 1-0 diff +1 Twins -1 KC
Apr 14 @DET act: L 9-11 adj: W 9-8 diff +2 Twins -1 KC -1 Det
Apr 15 @DET act: L 5-6 adj: W 5-4 diff +3 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
Apr 23 @OAK act: L 0-3 adj: L 0-1 diff +3 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
Apr 24 @OAK act: L 2-11 adj: L 2-9 diff +3 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
Apr 25 @TEX act: L 5-6 adj: W 5-4 diff +4 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
Apr 27 @TEX act: L 0-10 adj: L 0-8 diff +4 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
May 6 @CHW act: L 1-7 adj: L 1-5 diff +4 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
May 8 @CHW act: L 2-6 adj: L 1-4 diff +4 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
May 17 @COL act: L 2-3 adj: W 2-1 diff +5 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
May 18 @COL act: L 2-6 adj: L 2-6 diff +5 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
May 24 @DET act: L 3-19 adj: L 3-16 diff +5 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
Jun 6 @CHW act: L 6-10 adj: L 6-8 diff +5 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
Jun 7 @CHW act: L 2-11 adj: L 2-9 diff +5 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
Jun 8 @CHW act: L 2-12 adj: L 2-11 diff +5 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
Jun 9 @CHW act: L 5-7 adj: L 5-7 diff +5 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
Jun 10 @CLE act: L 0-1 adj: L 0-0 diff +5 Twins -1 KC -2 Det (assume loss)
Jun 12 @CLE act: L 2-12 adj: L 2-10 diff +5 Twins -1 KC -2 Det
Jun 15 @MIL act: L 2-4 adj: L 2-4 diff +5 Twins -1 KC -2 Det

According to this, the Twins record should have been 45-31 (a .592 winning percentage that projects to 96 wins for the season). If the pitching preparation problems were fixed, they type of discussions that are happening today wouldn't be happening... It is still early. There are 86 games left in the season. If the team identifies the problems, adjusts and plays the remaining 86 games at the potential .592 rate, it will finish the season with 91 wins, easily on top of the AL Central. The team management should really focus on this vs. adding bats...

Digging more into pitching this year...

The huge discrepancy in home and road ERAs, posted earlier, really took me by surprise and made me dig a bit deeper. I have been suggesting (screaming actually) that the numbers indicate that problem with this team this year is pitching, esp starting pitching and not batting. All the trade talk about adding 'better' bats and the talk about players like Lamb, Monroe and Everett underachieving, and who should the utility player be, in order for the Twins to win, are really moot points. I even wrote the following in Joe C's blog:

This team can and should contend. Starting pitching has been a problem and the most serious problem in this team. Having discussions about whether one of Punto/Tolbert/Macri/Harris should play, is somewhat atopic, because either way the way the team has been performing this year, it would not make a difference. Looking at the bench vs. starting pitching is like looking at someone with a heart failure, and trying to give him/her a pedicure before resuscitating him/her… (extreme hyperbole, but I’m trying to make a point… That’s why I think that Gardy messing around with the line up is like an old lady at the checkout counter arguing whether she was shorted 3 cents, while someone is pickpocketing her purse…)

I think that the previous analysis showed that the root cause of the pitching problems is bad road pitching. What is the root cause of bad road pitching?

The players are the same, their stuff is the same at home and on the road. Just the preparation is different and this, as I said before, falls on the manager, the pitching coach and the travel staff. The team should look more serious into this big problem that is costing 2 runs for every away game.

I'll come back to the last point later, but here are the numbers for the major leagues this year, making sure that there is not a league-wide aberration

MLB 2008: Home ERA 3.89, Road ERA 4.48
AL 2008: Home ERA 3.81, Road ERA 4.45
NL 2008: Home ERA 3.96, Road ERA 4.52

and here are the historic numbers for the Twins

Twins:
2008: Home ERA 3.32, Road ERA 5.69
2007: Home ERA 3.84, Road ERA 4.54
2006: Home ERA 3.40, Road ERA 4.54
----
2005: Home ERA 3.62, Road ERA 3.83
2004: Home ERA 3.89, Road ERA 4.20
2003: Home ERA 4.50, Road ERA 4.31
2002: Home ERA 3.76, Road ERA 4.52
2001: Home ERA 4.47, Road ERA 4.56
2000: Home ERA 5.18, Road ERA 5.13
1999: Home ERA 5.08, Road ERA 4.97
1998: Home ERA 4.52, Road ERA 5.00
1997: Home ERA 4.94, Road ERA 5.10
1996: Home ERA 5.38, Road ERA 5.22
1995: Home ERA 5.74, Road ERA 5.81
1994: Home ERA 5.26, Road ERA 6.17
1993: Home ERA 4.73, Road ERA 4.73
1992: Home ERA 3.68, Road ERA 3.76
1991: Home ERA 3.90, Road ERA 3.48
1990: Home ERA 4.24, Road ERA 4.03

Up until and including 2005, the Twins' splits were comparable with the league. Ron Gardenhire and Rick Anderson came to the team in 2002. Rick Stelmaszyk has been the bullpen coach all those years, so his presence probably has nothing to do with this. Did something change between 2005 and 2006? Where any changes made in the travel routine this year? The one thing that changed in 2006 was that this was the first year the majority of the Twins pitching staff had the Gardenhire/Anderson combination as their only Twins MLB coaching/manager combination. Arguable, a veteran pitcher that learned travel habits and preparation that work for him from other coaches, a change in coaching stuff and road preparation philosophy will be less affected than a younger pitcher who has seen nothing else in the Twins' organization. Could it really be just Gardy's and Ronnie's fault?

If the Twins followed the ML trend, their road ERA should have been 3.91. Instead it is 5.69. This is the equivalent of starting every road game down 2-0. Looking closely to the road games this year, if the manager and coaching stuff had the team prepared like every other ballclub in the majors this year, the following games would statistically have been wins:

Apr 15 @DET L 5-6
Apr 25 @TEX L 5-6
May 17 @COL L 2-3
Jun 10 @CLE L 0-1


And the club record would have been 44-32, 2.5 games ahead in Central and 0.5 game off the WC race.

The numbers clearly show that the issue with pitching is not personnel but preparation, managing and coaching. Is the management of the team aware of this issue? I would think that they have someone who analyzes the team performance and reports such obvious discrepancies. If the team straightens things out with the above problems, it would be the equivalent of adding 2 great pitchers in the rotation... If not, Gardenhire and his coaches should be held accountable, unless the management of this team would like to continue its pickpocketing at the rate of 2 runs a game.

Saturday game notes

• I do not subscribe to his philosophy, I think he is way overrated as a manager, but I feel for Gardy. Loosing a sibling sucks. No matter if the sibling is 5, 30, 50 or 99 years old. My thoughts are with him.


• Meanwhile down the farm, Ullger is managing the team and has the brilliant idea to bat Harris lead off and Lamb in the 2-hole. Harris is a much better bottom of the lineup hitter; and both him and Lamb are plugs in the bases. Morneau stole more bases than Lamb last year. Gomez is ready and willing and he better start tomorrow against the lefty-killer Rogers.


• Ullger looks more spastic moving to the mound than Pat Neshek getting into his wind up. That's a scary thought. And even scarier is that this guy was the Twins' hitting coach for (way too many) years. Speaking of hitting coaches, Vavra seemed to be elated that Mike Lamb got those 2 hits today, because he (according to Bert) worked with Lamb to 'make him stand more "upright" in the batter's box'; as if Lamb could stand more upright (and uptight) in the box, to begin with. Gratz Vavra!


• Baker's groin re-flamed up again allowing Bass the opportunity to be a hero today and he took it by the ears... Monroe showed why he should play more; and he should. If he does not start tomorrow, it will be a very stupid decision (but that would come from the man who was trying to make David Ortiz hit to the opposite field, so it should be taken with a 20lbs grain of salt or so.


• Twins win. They are first in the Central and above .500. All is good

Twins MVP: Bass

Twins win

Yeap. Convincingly 11-1 over Detroit. Great pitching, great hitting, what is there to say, other than Gomez getting hit on the head by Pudge during his second steal of the game and Gardy's brother dying. Hope all is good for Gardy. Yes, I do think that he is not the sharpest knife on the block as far as managers go, but this is a game and no matter how the game goes and how things turn out losing one's brother sucks. Wishing the best for Gardy and hope that he takes all the time needed to heal.

Twins MVP: Gomez