Breakdown of the Orlando Cabrera for Tyler Ladendorf trade

The Twins today acquired 34 year old, twice gold glove winning shortstop Orlando Cabrera for 21 year old Shortstop, Tyler Ladendorf, who was the Twins' second round pick in the 2008 amateur draft and split this season between Elizabethton (high Rookie) and Beloit (A).

Let's see what the Twins are getting with Orlando Cabrera:

Cabrera has played in the post-season 4 times: 2004 world champion with the Red Sox, 2005 and 2006 with the Angels and 2008 with the White Sox. When he was traded to the Red Sox mid season in 2004 (by the Expos in a 4-team trade with the Twins and the Cubs - the Twins traded Mientkiewicz to the Red Sox and received Justin Jones by the Cubs. Another interesting point in that trade was that current Twin Brendan Harris went to the Expos by the Cubs), he spark plugged the Red Sox with a .294/.320/.465 performance in 58 games. That season was a contract year for him, similar to this season.

His current line is .280/.318/.365 with a .302 wOBA, however after the All-Star break he has been on fire hitting .386/.415/.525 with half of his season total 4 home runs. The Athletics had him bat on the lead-off spot for a while and he disappointed (.224/.263/.308; 153 PA), however when he was switched to the second spot of the order, he has been hitting .305/.346/.381 (244 PA). For a comparison, players who occupied the Twins #2 spot were hitting a combined .245/.299/.372 (475 PA). Also, the player who he will likely replace, Brendan Harris has been very cold recently, hitting .203/.239/.313 since the All Star break.

Defensively this has been a bad season for Cabrera posting a -7.9 UZR (projecting to -9.6 UZR/150). However, last season he posted a 14.0 UZR (13.1 UZR/150), which suggest that there is potential to return to his previous form defensively. For comparison purposes, Brendan Harris at SS has a -1.2 UZR (-2.4 UZR/150) and Nick Punto a -1.0 UZR (-2.4 UZR/150).

Tyler Ladendorf was one of the top Twins' middle infield prospect who has been thought as a potential 5-tool player. He is 21 and just promoted to Beloit. With this trade the Twins are actually doing something similar to what the did with the Luis Castillo trade from the Marlins in the 2006 off-season: trading potential with actuality.

What impact would Cabrera have with the Twins?

Best case scenario is that he will hold the every day shortstop position, his defense will improve with better fielding teammates, his hitting will be solid and solidify the number 2 spot in the batting order and hopefully be a piece of the puzzle that propels the Twins to a path similar of his 2004 Boston Red Sox team. It remains to be seen whether this will happen, but overall this is a good trade with low risk for the Twins since they did not part with a current MLB player or a player expected to help the team within the next 3 seasons.

2 hours for the trade deadline and I have a feeling that the Twins are not yet done dealing

Twins acquire Orlando Cabrera

Orlando Cabrera for Tyler Ladendorf. More details later

Ladendorf scouting report from scout.com.

Highlights: ETA 2012, their number #32 prospect in the Twins' organization, possible five-tool prospect, potential 15-20 HR power, potential 20 steals, "tremendous arm, and good range".

Catching up

Not many news are expected this weekend (a travel weekend for many officials and reporters to the Winter Meetings in Vegas). A couple of interesting notes (and I am not going to harp on the the Gardy foot in the mouth situation and potential Delmon Young trade rumors or why the Twins should not give 3 years to Blake):

• The Twins made the first blunder this off-season, releasing Randy Ruiz to reportedly open another spot on the 40 man roster. Readers of this space know who I feel about Randy Ruiz. It is bothersome that this comes from a team that has 5 catchers on the 40 man roster, re-singed the AARP-eligible Redmond as the back-up catcher for next season, and having several older career minor league non-prospects in that roster. Good luck Randy, you deserve a 25 man roster spot and you'll get it, but unfortunately not with the Twins. There are strong rumors about Ruiz going to Japan; we'll have to wait and see.


• Apparently the shortstop market has become a buyer's market after the singing of Rentaria by the Giants and the trade for Greene by the Cardinals: The A's pulled off the table their offer to Furcal ($35-40M for 4 years). The Tigers are looking at Jack Wilson and Adam Everett, Orlando Cabrera is still out there as they are the lesser free agent shortstops (Alex Cora, Juan Uribe, Cesar Izturis et. al.). The Twins do have 2 internal options (3 if you add Plouffe), Steven Tolleson, who supplemented a great season in AA last year with a phenomenal AFL performance and Alejandro Machado who in his first year with the Twins' organization, after sitting all 2007 out with injuries, hit .338/.376/.472 in Rochester, primarily as a second baseman. Depending how the market goes, I would not be surprised if the Twins wait until late and if Furcal is available come January/February make him a 1-2 year contract offer. The Furcal situation also affects the Blake situation, because if the Dodgers sign Furcal, they will probably be out of the running for Blake, making the Twins the only team with an offer on the table.


• I have been updating with signings my Minor League free agent potential target list. A couple of players have already singed with other clubs.


• Meanwhile, it looks like, finally, the names "Wigginton" and "Twins" are being placed in the same sentence. Earlier (time flies, it has been almost 2 months), I suggested that Wiggington should be one of the 4 real targets for third base help this offseason. Speculation is that Wigginton might cost just prospects of the caliber the Padres received for Greene.

Crazy waiver days...

Yesterday the Red Sox claimed Brian Giles from the Padres to block him from going to the Rays.

Today there is word out of Frisco, that several teams claimed Huston Street. Do you think?

Finally...

The Twins' front office made up for the lack of activity in July, by bringing up Fransisco Liriano and Randy Ruiz as the first order of business in August.

The Liriano call up was expected. What was not expected was that Randy Ruiz is finally given a chance to show what he can do in the majors, after he crushed the competition at every year in the minors.

Randy Ruiz is free!

Update: Ruiz is slated to start against Cleveland tonight at DH

Is Beltre attainable?

What would it take for the Twins to get Beltre? Let's examine some similar trades the past ten years. What I am doing here is listing people similar to Beltre who got traded and trying to assess equivalent trade value based on today's Twins' major and minor league players and the stage the traded players where in their careers when traded:

Trade #1: Roberto Alomar traded by the Cleveland Indians with Danny Peoples and Mike Bacsik to the New York Mets for Matt Lawton, Alex Escobar,Jerrod Riggan, Earl Snyder (2001 offseason, $7-8mil/year contract with 2 years remaining)

Alomar = Beltre

Peoples = Erik Lis

Bacsik < Perkins



Lawton < Cuddyer

Escobar = Erik Lis

Riggan = Casey Daigle

Snyder = Brock Peterson < Buscher


equivalent value trade: Beltre for Buscher and Cuddyer or Bass and Cuddyer or Buscher and Bass and Lis or Buscher and Bonser


Trade #2: Scott Brosius was traded from the Athletics to the Yankees for Kenny Rogers (32) and cash.(1997)

Equivalent value trade: Beltre for Hernandez + Buscher

Trade #3: Carlos Guillen Traded by the Seattle Mariners to the Detroit Tigers for Ramon Santiago and Juan Gonzalez (2004, $2.5mil contract)


Ramon Santiago = Trevor Plouffe
Juan Gonzalez (not Juan Gone) = Ramon Santana

Equivalent trade: Beltran + cash for Plouffe and Ramon Santana (a steal)

Trade #4: Bobby Abreau traded by the Philadelphia Phillies with Cory Lidle to the New York Yankees for Matt Smith, C.J. Henry, Carlos Monasterios, and Jesus Sanchez (2006 $13-16mil/year contract).

Lidle > Hernandez


Matt Smith = Carmen Cali

CJ Henry = Eric Santiago

Monastrios = Alex Curry

Sanchez = Daniel Rohlfing

Equivalent trade: Beltran for Carmen Cali and Eric Santiago (another steal)


Trade #5: Scott Rolen traded by the Philadelphia Phillies with Doug Nickle and cash to the St. Louis Cardinals for Placido Polanco, Mike Timlin, and Bud Smith. (2003 $8.6-12.5 mil contract)

Doug Nickle < Bass


Polanco > Punto
Timlin = Guerrier
Smith = Matthew Williams

Hard to figure this one out but the closer I get for an equivalent trade is Beltre for Punto, Bonser and Humber


I think that a combination of one or 2 from Bass/Buscher/Bonser plus one or 2 minor leaguers from Lis/Plouffe/Peterson/De Paula, might actually do it...

Sunday Game Notes

• Gardenhire made the following condescending comment in an interview with La Velle E. Neal III:
  
  When it was mentioned how much Punto gets ripped by fans, Gardy replied: “That’s because he doesn’t help fantasy teams but he can help you win baseball games.”
  
  
  Here is the numbers (btw, Punto starts today instead of Tolbert):
  
  Career Runs Created per Game for the current Twins batters:
  Tolbert: 7.8
  Mauer: 6.6
  Morneau: 5.9
  Cuddyer: 5.3
  Lamb: 5.0
  Kubel: 4.5
  Harris: 4.5
  Monroe: 4.4
  Redmond: 4.4
  Young: 4.3
  Everett: 3.7
  Punto: 3.6
  
  As far as his defense goes, career numbers for all positions are
  
  FP: Punto: .976, league: .972
  RF: Punto: 3.13, league: 3.41
  
  Also his VORP, every year in his career other than 2006 has been negative, meaning that whomever played instead of him in that position was more productive…
  
  I am just tired of Gardenhire’s unsubstantiated and irresponsible comments, especially when they are condescending towards fans like this comment. Most fans do not care about "fantasy stats". All fans care about their team winning. If Punto is last in team in career runs created and his defense is below league average, how does he “help you win games”? Maybe Gardenhire cares less than the Twins' fans about winning every game


• For some reason, Mauer is out of the lineup (with the day off tomorrow) and Morneau is DHing. Also Lamb is playing 1B and Buscher is playing 3B


• Harris hits his 1st home run as a Twin to tie the game in the 3rd. He is the only Twin other than Morneau and Kubel to homer this season. His HR was on the opposite field over the baggie. Punto looked like Billy Butler in the stolen base attempt in the 5th inning. Great 10 inning game with Harris scoring both runs and Morneau driving him in in the bottom of 10th. Redmond and Buscher got their first hits of the season, which means that every hitter on the roster now has a hit. Gomez makes and incredible play in the bottom of the 9th to save the game (look at how the throw to the infield hits Punto on the butt :) ). I hope the fans will see Mr. Bentley for who he really is right now...


• Byrd's stuff is soft (fastball at 87-88 mph max) but has been working several pitches all over the plate. Baker has 8 Ks over the first 7 innings with 100 total pitches, having a streak of 9 batters retired from the 3rd to 6th inning. He currently leads the Twins in strikeouts. The bullpen (Reyes, Neshek and Guerrier) did not allow a run. The Twins lead the AL in team WHIP (1.27)


• Detroit lost in Toronto, KC lost in Oakland and the White Sox won in Tampa, which brings the Twins in a second place tie with KC, 2.5 games off first, and, even more importantly, 2 games ahead of the Indians and 3 ahead of the Tigers


• Frank Thomas was released by the Jays today, the Twins have little power from the right side and Kubel has a .270 OBP as the full-time DH. Thomas has a .326 OBP, 3 HR, 11 RBI and 11 walks (that would put him between Mauer and Kubel in OBP, tied for second in HRs, 3rd in RBI and first in BBs in the Twins' team); it does make sense for the Twins to sign him and installing him as their full time DH in the 3 hole between Mauer and Morneau, since he would be a perfect fit in that lineup and the Jays would be picking the bill. On the other hand, if he has more that 304 ABs this year a $10 mil option for next year matures, which if he produces might not be a bad thing for the Twins [edit: since he was released and not waived, the team that signs him is not responsible for the vesting option. This is a no brainer and the Twins' staff better jump on it]. In that scenario Kubel can come off the bench or play RF and Cuddyer should see some time at 3B.


• On unrelated news, the Pope prays in Yankee stadium. Not sure that even that would be enough to turn their season around with that pitching staff...

Twins MVP: Harris

Notes from tonite's game

Interesting decision for the Caesar, to have Kubel in RF and Monroe DHing, instead of the opposite, since Monroe's career range factor in RF is 1.82 where that of Kubel is 1.00. In addition Monroe knows the park. I hope that it is not another mistake... From the current Tiger's lineup only Ordonez (1.121) has a career OPS higher than .788 against Baker, and as far as the Twins go, only Harris (1.500) surpasses that mark against Robertson

Random thought of the day: The team is about $10mil under in payroll. With Everett/Punto/Rincon/Monroe off the books for next year, does a serious run for Manny Ramirez (3 years @ $15-17 mil per year) to be the everyday DH make sense?

Unrelated thought of the day: 1st Monday Night Football: Vikings at Packers. Tough schedule, though...

Issues with mlb.tv. Gomez doubles, steals 3rd, Harris walks, Mauers FC, Harris out, Gomez scores. Twins 1-0. Morneau strikes out. Young flies out to Thomas. Twins 1-0. Fly out to Young, strikeout, home run to left by Sheffield. 1-1. Strikeout. End of 1. 1-1. 16 pitches for Baker.

Kubel strikes out. Monroe grounds out to the shortstop. Lamb grounds out to 1st. 1-2-3 inning. Walk, fly out to Kubel, double play Lamb to Harris to Morneau. End of 2, 1-1. 29 pitches for Baker.

Tolbert gets a bat single to Cabrera. Gomez pops up a bunt to the catcher. Tolbert steals second. Harris pops up to right. Mauer singles to left, Tolbert scores. Morneau flies out to left. Twins 2-1. Walk, pop up foul to Mauer, stolen base (ball knocked out of Tolbert's glove), fly out to Gomez, ground out to Lamb. End of 3, 2-1 Twins. 45 pitches for Baker.

Young flies out to right center. Kubel strikes out in 3 pitches. Monroe singles to left. Lamb flies out to left in a great at bat where he fouled out 8 pitches or so. Bottom of 4. Fly out to Gomez, ground out to Tolbert, ground out to Morneau. Short order of Sheffield, Ordonez and Cabrera. 1-2-3 inning, 8 pitches for Baker. End of 4, Twins 2-1

Tolbert grounds out to 3rd. Robertson way inside to Gomez, then 3-2. Foul, strikeout on a questionable pitch (on further review gameday shows that it was indeed a strike inside). Harris flies out to the warning track at right. Twins out. Single to right, single to right, men on 1st and 2nd. Ground out to Tolbert, runners advance. Fly out to Gomez strong throw, runner stays at 3rd. 2 out. 0-2. Strikeout. End of 5. Twins 2-1. Great job by the Twins.

Mauer doubles to left. Morneau homers to left. 4-1 Twins. Young grounds out to short. One out. Kubel strikes out (third one tonight). Monroe lines out to short. Fly out to Kubel, ground out to third (great catch by Lamb and super play by Morneau on the other end) 2 out. Ordonez homers to left. Ground out to Lamb. End of 6. Twins 4-2.

Lamb flies out to short right. Visit to the mount. Pitching change. Lopez in for the Tigers. Tolbert flies out to right. Gomez strikes out on a slider way low and way away. Home run by Guillen to the right. 4-3. Fly out to Kubel, ground out to Tolbert, pop up to Harris. End of 7. Twins 4-3. 84 pitches for Baker

Harris flies out to center. Pitching change, sidearmer Rapada in. Mauer grounds out to 2nd. A couple of questionable pitches to Morneau called strikes (gameday shows them as balls) and he strikes out. Bottom of 8. Crain in. 94 mph fastball for a strike; then a great 74 mph curve for a strike... strikeout on a 95 mph fastball. Walk. Bad throw on a pick up play. Runner to 3rd. Foul pop to Mauer. Double to right. 4-4. 2-run homer by Cabrerra. 6-4 Tigers. Ground out to Morneau. 6-4 Tigers

Todd Jones in for Detroit & a couple of defensive changes. Young gets a triple to the right, almost out of the park. Kubel grounds out to the pitcher. Monroe singles Young home to left. Span pinch running. Lamb flies out to right. Tolbert strikes out. Twins lose 6-5

Twins MVP: Mauer

Thoughts from today's game

The Twins lost 5-1 in Liriano's return to the majors. I did not watch the game, just followed it on the mobile version of mlb's gameday. Here are some thoughts for the game, the next series and the season:

• Liriano had a rough outing, but he can work the kinks out. He is already pitching better than Buherle and Sabathia and it was very cold. It has been reported that the problem was fastball location.


• Batting is an issue. I hope that in the Detroit series, Mornoe is in every game replacing Span, because he needs at bats and he has a bone to pick with them. Gomez would be very successful bunting against this defense so I hope he is there every day


• The Twins are in a good place. They are a game ahead of Cleveland and 4 ahead of Detroit with an overall .500 record. Last year they were 9-9 against both KC and CHW and this year they are 4-2 and 1-1 against them, respectively


• Redmond, Span & Punto do not belong in the bigs, neither does Rincon. Smith should be on the phone to bring in a bat, and one of Korecky, Mulvey & Swarzak to the bullpen

Twins MVP: Bass

Two series in the books

The Twins lost today 3-1 to the Royals and are 3-4 for the year. Some observations so far:

• The pitching, esp starting pitching has been performing well. Bill Madden, of the New York Daily news wrote an interesting article suggesting that the number of 7-inning performances by a teams' starting staff is a good indicator of a team's potential to make the playoffs. So far the Twins have 4 games where the starters when 7 or more, compared to 2 such games after 7 total games last season. This improvement, albeit predicted here, is generally surprising.


• Pitching has been the strength of this team, resulting in 6 out seven games this season being close (decided by 2 runs or less) vs only 2 close games in the first 7 games in 2007. This team scored 19 runs in the first 7 games of 2008 vs. 23 in those of 2007. The offense is lagging and some adjustments might need to be made.


• Cuddyer, Kubel, Lamb, Monroe and Young have been "slow starters" if you compare their performances in April vs those at the rest of the season for the span of their careers. Young has been hitting adequately for average but not been driving in runs. Lamb played only sparingly in the month of April, because he is a slow starter. With the emergence of Tolbert, it might be worthwhile to give Harris several starts in the 3B (that is his natural position), while keeping Lamb on the bench.


• The DH situation is a problem with the only visible solution to wait until Kubel or Monroe find their groove. The other observation is that the bench is flawed, because of the taxing with the 12-man pitching staff (that is probably unnecessary with the performance of the starters so far) and the presence of Nick Punto who with the emergence of Tolbert is reduced to a late inning defensive replacement that is probably a luxury in a team that has a power outage. The reduction of the pitching staff to 11 and moving Punto along with one of the current bullpen parts (Rincon?), might result in a much needed bat, as originally proposed.
  Alternatively, and even more importantly, what would it take to pry away a superstar in the making in his arbitration year from a team that cannot afford him, in a year where the Twins have excess in budget? What would it take to bring Hanley Ramirez from the Marlins? If Smith let the Marlins pick 5 or 6 people from the organization other than Gomez, Mauer, Morneau, Nathan, Slowey, Liriano, Baker, Blackburn, Crain, Hernandez, Guerrier and Reyes, I think that it might happen. In the worse case scenario, Kubel, Guerra, Casilla, Span, Revere and Swarzak will go to the Marlins. I think that its a price that the Twins should be willing to pay


• On other notes: Santana hit a double today, but lost to the Braves. Soria will be special for the Royals. Cleveland came back to win in Oakland. I'd be following the late AL Central game

Today's Twins MVP: Morneau

Some preseason tidbits

An Interesting article in the WSJ, ranks Gardenhire as the best manager in the majors. The problem is that their methodology is based on a flawed assumption.

They "used three criteria to measure the performance of baseball managers: how their teams perform in close games when the manager's strategic decisions have the most impact, how many games their teams win compared to how many runs they score and allow (a formula known as Pythagorean wins) and whether they get more out of players than other managers, measured by additional games won per season".

The problems with the first two criteria is that a. bullpens and not managers win close games and b. the performance of the players and not that of managers are responsible for a team winning more games that the predicted Pythagorean wins. (I will spare the stats for now, but 90% of the teams who fit this category had either team ERA+ higher than 110 or team OPS+ in innings 7-9 higher than 110, or both.) The problem with the last criterium is that it requires a leap of faith: if a player has better stats a particular year there are a whole bunch of probably reasons and only one of them is his manager...

One another note, today the Twins made a very bad trade: They traded R. A. Dickey to Seattle for a minor league catcher. Do the Twins really need another minor league catcher or a versatile knuckleballer in their bullpen who can pitch every day and provide some stability, at least in the beginning of the season, to a young hurting group of starters? Plus, he could probably pitch for at least another 10 years (he is 32); I don't know what Smith was thinking (or whether he was thinking). You don't want to lose Bass and Dickey has never been with the team, but he would most likely be a better option out of the bullpen than Bass and I'd rather see the team lose Bass before Dickey... Also, Dickey passed through waivers, which means that he could be in Rocherster... This trade, even though it is in small letters in the back of the paper today, ranks up there with some of the worse Twins' moves, like non-tendering Ortiz and signing Punto to a $2.4mil/year contract. I just hope that the Twins' don't regret this.

Liriano will start the season in the minors, which means that Blackburn made the team. Baker's fate is still up in the air, which means that he could still be in the DL retroactively and Bass or Humber making at least on start on his spot. Other than that, "the rotation is set"

Some flaws in the Twins' 25 men roster

The 25-men roaster is all but set with the only question marks being whether Liriano and/or Baker will make the trip up north or stay in FL for extensive spring training until they build their endurance. Regardless, I think that there are some flaws in the 25 men roster that can be proven painful for the Twins this year:

• There are too many pitchers on the roster, leaving some serious deficiencies in the lineup. Historically, teams had 10 pitchers and 15 batters on their rosters. During the nineties, especially after expansion. The standard became 11 and 14. Now several teams are starting the season with 12 pitchers. This tactic, even though would lead to a fresher pitching staff, does not allow the manager to make appropriate substitutions in situational pinch hitting and running as well as in a day-to-day injury, unless the 4-man bench is set up correctly.


• The Twins have issues with their 4-man bench because Redmond is not very versatile; whomever from Monroe or Kubel does not start at DH can only play corner outfield positions successfully; Punto and Tolbert have pretty much the same skill set (infielders) and they are practically a duplication. A versatile outfielder (such as Pridie) could have been a better choice than one of the Punto/Tolbert duo


• Tolbert could be a potential pinch runner in late innings as could be Punto, but when Monroe is starting, there are no power righty bats of the bench.


• Another issue: Gomez is injury prone. He showed that yesterday. It that game, Gomez had a leg cramp and had to leave the game after the forth inning. With Monroe starting at DH, Gardernhire substituted Punto as the CF replacement, a totally inadequate substitution. A better course of action (albeit not ideal) would have been to move Young to CF and insert Kubel as the LF. This problem would be an issue if Gomez is day-to-day and out for a couple of days. This is why Pridie would have been a better choice... The only other position without good backup plan is 1B (the best case scenario if Morneau gets a minor injury would be to put Cuddyer on 1B with either Kubel or Monroe taking the RF position and again have no OF on the bench...


• The pitching staff itself is too righthanded with potentially (if Liriano is not ready) only 1 lefthander (Reyes) on the staff. This is not an issue against primarily righthanded lineups, like Detroit, but it can hurt in the long run. Neshek has a good record against lefties but he is the set up man. Perkins or Keisler should have probably taken Bass' spot (even though the later is out of options.)


• LH relievers are a rare and expensive fruit but the Twins should probably package a few people for a trade. There is a surplus of righthanders and it maybe time to see what a package such as Punto+Bass+Rincon can bring. Would it be enough for a situational lefty? Possible. Additionally, it would solve the bench Punto/Tolbert duplication issue. In such a scenario, Pridie would take Punto's spot, Humber Bass' and the new lefty Rincon's. I think that the Atlanta Braves might be an ideal trade partner, resulting to someone like Royce Ring or even Will Ohman coming to the Twins (with or without the inclusion of Bass in that trade...)

just some food for thought...

Updated lineups after the Santana trade

Lineup:

Carlos Gomez CF
Joe Mauer C
Michael Cuddyer RF
Justin Morneau 1B
Delmon Young LF
Jason Kubel DH
Mike Lamb 3B
Brendan Harris 2B
Adam Everett SS

Mike Redmond (Bench)
Nick Punto (Bench)
Craig Monroe (Bench)
Two positions (Jason Pridie/Matt Macri/Brian Buscher/Alexi Casilla/Tommy Watkins/Alejandro Machado) (Bench)

Pitching staff:


Francisco Liriano (SP)
Scott Baker (SP)
Boof Bonser (SP)
Kevin Slowey (SP)
Mike Humber/Dan Perkins/Nick Blackburn/Brian Duensing/Anthony Swarzak/Kevin Mulvey

Joe Nathan (CL)
Pat Neshek (RP)
Jesse Crain (RP)
Matt Guerrier (RP)
Dennys Reyes (RP)
Juan Rincon (RP)

Potentially a free agent centerfielder could be signed moving Gomez to the bench, however other than Lofton, there are no centerfielders that would potentially produce as well as Gomez or match his defence. This trade gives the Twins a very good defensive outfield as all 3 potential starters have great arms and Gomez has excellent range. A potential victim of the numbers might be Craig Monroe, depending on his spring training production. Also, there is a surplus of starting pitching at the AAA/AAAA level, which might indicate that the Twins might be interested in pulling another trade.

Updated lineups after the Everett signing

Lineup:

Jason Pridie CF
Delmon Young LF
Joe Mauer C
Michael Cuddyer RF
Justin Morneau 1B
Jason Kubel DH
Brendan Harris 2B
Brian Buscher 3B
Adam Everett SS

Mike Redmond (Bench)
Nick Punto (Bench)
Alexi Casilla (Bench)
Garrett Jones (Bench)
Craig Monroe (Bench)

Pitching staff:

Johan Santana (SP)
Francisco Liriano (SP)
Scott Baker (SP)
Boof Bonser (SP)
Kevin Slowey (SP)

Joe Nathan (CL)
Pat Neshek (RP)
Jesse Crain (RP)
Matt Guerrier (RP)
Dennys Reyes (RP)
Juan Rincon (RP)

Tejada to Houston, would Santana follow?

The Astros' trade would Baltimore for Tejada, introduces holes in their starting rotation, which would be sufficiently filled by Johan Santana. What could Houston give in return? They have 2 centerfielders in Josh Anderson and Hunter Pence,(potentially one of them can be had, especially with Mitch Einertson on the wings) a highly-rated 22 y.o AA reliever in Samuel Gervacio who is a strikeout machine with great control, a very good 23 y.o. AA starter in James Barthmaier (rated higher than Troy Patton, who went to the Orioles for Tejada, and Anthony Swarzak in some places) Jonny Ash, a 24 y.o. rangy 2B with great eye and OBP, Felipe Paulino a 23 y.o. starter with great fastball. Their shortstop / 3B prospects are not that great (Cuddyer should probably fill the 3B hole, see previous post), but Pence and Anderson can be the centrpieces of such a deal and their potential is higher than Ellsbury. Would that get it done?

In other news, Jason Tyner was not tendered today, so there are officially 3 openings in the 40 men roster...

Cuddyer is uncomfortable at 3B, True or False?

There is a conception that a switch of Mike Cuddyer back to 3B would diminish his performance. Several sources indicate that Cuddyer performs worse at 3B. Most recently, MLB.com Twins beat reporter Kelly Thesier, wrote:

Cuddyer has the ability to play a variety of positions, but it's in right field that he has truly thrived, both defensively and offensively. After the unsuccessful experiment at third base, Cuddyer talked about never truly finding a comfort level there.

Here is a more in depth look at Mike's performance at 3B vs. RF:

As a 3B in 502 ABs he hit for .263 BA with a .329 OBP and .442 slugging for a total OPS of .771. At that span he hit 19 home runs with 59 RBI. He had 47 BB and 105 K. His per bat numbers are 26.4 AB/HR and 8.51 AB/RBI. His K/BB ratio was: 2.23

As a RF in 1268 ABs he hit for .275 BA with a .352 OBP and .452 slugging for a total OPS of .808. At that span he hit 40 home runs with 200 RBI. He had 138 BB and 283 K. His per bat numbers are 31.7 AB/HR and 6.34 AB/RBI. His K/BB ratio was: 2.05

Indeed, his RBI numbers improved as did his BB and gap power. His home runs declined. Is that a result of the move to the RF or is a result of maturing as a hitter and/or hitting ofter betweeen Mauer and Morneau while playing a RF vs. in the 7th and 8th hole as a 3B?


As far as his fielding goes, his FP at 3B was .942 (with league average .957) and range factor 2.70 (with league average 2.76). At RF, in 2006, his FP was .981 (league average .984) and range factor 1.87 (league average 2.20). In 2007: FP .986 (league average .985), range factor 2.02 (league average 2.08). Conclusion, his fielding both at 3B and RF is close to (albeit a bit below) league average, which indicates that his fielding does not suffer much at 3B...

It all depends whether the Twins could find a better 3B via free agency or trade. Here are some names and how they may compare (2007 numbers):

Mike Lamb
Batting: .289BA/.366OBP/.453SLG/1.25K/BB/28.3AB/HR
Fielding: FP:.936 (League average .954) RF 2.53 (2.68)

Morgan Ensberg
Batting: .230BA/.320OBP/.404SLG/1.76K/BB/23.5AB/HR
Fielding: FP:.929 (League average .954) RF 2.61 (2.68)

Scott Rolen
Batting: .265BA/.331OBP/.398SLG/1.51K/BB/49AB/HR
Fielding: FP:.969 (League average .954) RF 2.99 (2.68)

Pedro Feliz
Batting: .253BA/.290OBP/.418SLG/2.41K/BB/27.85AB/HR
Fielding: FP:.973 (League average .954) RF 2.91 (2.68)

for comparison purposes, Mike's 2007 Batting stats and 3B fielding stats

Batting: .276BA/.356OBP/.433SLG/1.67K/BB/34.18AB/HR
Fielding: FP:.942 (League average .957) RF 2.70 (2.76)

From the third basemen listed here, only Rolen and Feliz are superior fielders and only Mike Lamb is a superior hitter. Mike Lamb would potentially be an improvement offensively, but his defense suffers so much that the Astro's switched him to 1B. Feliz strikes out too much and his OBP is dismal. Rolen is an interesting situation, since he is superior defensively and a change of scenery might return him to an above average offensive player. The Rolen gamble might pay off if the price is right. Mike Cuddyer is here and free...

more Santana news - what are the Twins asking

From The LA daily news:

A source with knowledge of the Twins' position said Wednesday that the club is asking the Dodgers for a package of three or four players from a pool of six: pitchers Chad Billingsley and Jonathan Broxton, outfielders Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp, top pitching prospect Clayton Kershaw and third-base prospect Andy LaRoche. Whether the Twins would want three or four players depends on whom those players are

and from The NY Daily news:

To get Santana, the Yankees would likely have to package Cabrera with either Phil Hughes or Ian Kennedy in addition to one mid-level prospect. The loss of Garza means Minnesota would likely demand the third player be a pitcher, despite speculation that outfielders Austin Jackson and Jose Tabata could be part of a deal on the Yankees' end.
The Twins are interested in reliever Mark Melancon, a Yankees 2006 pick out of Arizona who missed the entire 2007 season following elbow surgery, although righthander Alan Horne of AA Trenton is also a possibility.

These 2 stories do not seem equivalent. I think that the story out of NY is wishful thinking. Cabrera, Kennedy and a AA pitcher would not be enough (that would have not been enough for the Garza-Bartlett trade with the Rays, btw). The LA story makes more sense: 3-MLB ready players and potentially a fourth prospect. It is hard to find data for similar trades, simply because aces of this caliber are not traded often and usually end up being signed as free agents. This trade that involved the Yankees is probably as close to an equivalent trade:

Roger Clemens (post season 1998) to Toronto for Homer Bush (after he had a 134 OPS+ rookie season), Graeme Lloyd (after a ridiculous season with 1.79 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and 264 ERA+), and David Wells (after his 18-4 season).

To translate that with today's Yankee's team, the equivalent would be something like


Cano + Chamberlain + Wang

for the other suitors:

Boston:
Ellsbury + Beckett + Okajima

Mets:
Milledge+ Perez + Heillman ++ (hard to find equivalence there)

Angels:
Lackey+ Shields + Kotchman

Dodgers:
Kent + Penny + Broxton

Given the Twins are not looking for the respective aces of the teams, plus their needs are different so a possible substitution of 2 prospects for the team's ace might suffice. This substitution plus some changes to reflect the needs and status of both teams including the players mentioned as untouchables, make the following fair trade returns:

Yankees:
Betemit (3B), Cabrera (CF), Hughes (SP), Shelley Duncan (DH/minors)

Boston:
Youkilis+ Buchholz or Buchholz (SP), Ellsbury (CF), Jed Lowrie (3B/SS)

Mets:
Reyes (SS) + Heilman (RP/SP)+ Milledge (CF) for Santana + Bonser/Rincon

Angels:

Brandon Wood (3b) or Figgins (3b) + Jered Weaver (SP) + Reggie Willits (CF)

Dodgers:

Kemp (CF)+ LaRoche (3b) + Broxton (RP) + Kershaw (SP or minors)

if the Twins get anything less, they would be the losers from some trade. There is a lot written about the downside to signing a 28 year old pitcher who is regarded as the best pitcher in baseball to a 7/8 year for $20-25 mil per year contract. However one of these teams signed a 32 yo outfielder to a six year with $16 mil a year (Angels); another payed about half that for the negotiating rights to a 27 yo pitcher who never threw a pitch in this country (Red Sox); another sighed a 36 yo catcher to a 4 year contract for $13 mill a year and a 37 y.o. closer to 3 years $15mil a year (Yankees)... so to lock up the best pitcher long term is not that risky compared to the above

Starting pitching and a potential Santana trade

Here is a look at some of the stats in the major and minor league level for the remaining Twins starters and the best young starters in potential trading partners:

Twins:

Scott Baker, 25, RHP

2007 AL 143.7 IP 29 BB 102 K 4.26 ERA 1.33 WHIP
2007 AAA 42.2 IP 4 BB 41 K 3.16 ERA 0.89 WHIP

Glen Perkins, 24, LHP

2007 AL 28.7IP 12 BB 29 K 3.14 ERA 1.22 WHIP
2006 AA 117 IP 45 BB 131 K 3.92 ERA 1.32 WHIP

Kevin Slowley, 23, RHP

2007 AL 66.7 IP 11 BB 47 K 4.73 ERA 1.39 WHIP
2007 AAA 133.2 IP 18 BB 107 K 1.89 ERA 0.96 WHIP

Fransisco Liriano 23, LHP

2005 AAA 91 IP, 24 BB, 112 K 1.78 ERA 0.88 WHIP
2006 AL 121 IP, 32 BB, 144 K 2.16 ERA 1.00 WHIP

Nick Blackburn 25, RHP

2007 AAA 110.2 IP 12 BB 57 K 2.11 ERA 0.98 WHIP


Boof Bonser, 25, RHP

2007 AL 173 IP, 65 BB, 136 K, 5.10 ERA, 1.53 WHIP
2006 AL 100.3 IP, 24 BB, 84 K, 4.22 ERA, 1.28 WHIP
2005 AAA 160.1 IP, 57 BB, 168 K, 3.99 ERA, 1.31 WHIP
----

Soon to be gone:

Matt Garza 23, RHP

2007 AL 83 IP, 32 BB, 67 K, 3.69 ERA, 1.54 WHIP
2007 AAA 92 IP, 31 BB, 95 K, 3.62 ERA, 1.35 WHIP

------

Mets

John Maine 26, RHP
2007 NL 191 IP, 75 BB, 180 K, 3.91 ERA, 1.27 WHIP
2006 NL 90 IP, 33 BB, 71 K, 3.60 ERA, 1.13 WHIP
2006 AAA 57 IP, 20 BB, 48 K, 3.47 ERA, 1.32 WHIP

Mike Pelfrey 23, RHP

2007 NL 72.7 IP, 39 BB, 45 K, 5.57 ERA 1.71 WHIP
2006 AA 66 IP, 26 BB, 77 K, 2.73 ERA, 1.30 WHIP

Yankees

Joba Chamberlain 21, RHP

2007 AL 24 IP, 6 BB, 34 K, 0.38 ERA, 0.75 WHIP
2007 A-AA-AAA 88.1 IP, 27 BB, 135 K, 1.01 WHIP

Ian Kennedy 22, RHP

2007 A-AA- AAA 146.1 IP, 50 BB, 163 K, 1.91 ERA, 0.96 WHIP

Philip Hughes 21, RHP

2007 AL 72.7 IP, 29 BB, 58 K, 4.46 ERA, 1.28 WHIP
2006 AA 116 IP, 32 BB, 138 K, 2.25 ERA, 0.91 WHIP

Red Sox

Clay Buchholz 22, RHP

2007 AL 22.7 IP, 10 BB, 22 K, 1.59 ERA, 1.06 WHIP
2007 AA-AAA 125.1 IP, 35 BB, 171 K, 2.44 ERA, 0.97 WHIP

John Lester 23, LHP
2007 AL 63 IP, 31 BB, 50 K, 4.57 ERA, 1.46 WHIP
2007 AAA 71.2 IP, 31 BB, 51 K, 3.89 ERA, 1.37 WHIP

Angels

Jered Weaver 24 RHP

2007 AL 161 IP, 45 BB, 115 K, 3.91 ERA, 1.39 WHIP
2006 AL 123 IP, 33 BB, 105 K, 2.56 ERA, 1.03 WHIP
2006 AAA 77 IP, 10 BB, 93 K, 2.10 ERA, 0.95 WHIP

Dodgers

Chad Billingsley 22, RHP

2007 NL 147 IP, 64 BB, 141 K, 3.31 ERA, 1.33 WHIP
2006 NL 90 IP, 58 BB, 59 K, 3.80 ERA, 1.67 WHIP
2006 AAA 71 IP, 32 BB, 78 K, 3.93 ERA, 1.25 WHIP


Conclusion: Frankly, other than the Yankee trio, Buchholz and Weaver, nobody would be any upgrade from what the Twins already have. In addition, the numbers clearly show why Garza was the one to go and why Bonser should go soon. Ideally, the Twins should seek position players and relievers for a Santana trade

Fresh out of the box

A potential trade with the Rays, involving six players. Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett and Juan Rincon for Delmon Young, Brendan Harris and Jason Pridie. Updated chart from the previous post:

Pitching staff:

SP *Francisco Liriano (207, 2006)
SP *Glen Perkins 138
SP Scott Baker 102 (133, 2005)
SP Boof Bonser 85 (106, 2006)
SP Kevin Slowey 92

CL Joe Nathan 230 (283, 2006)
RP Pat Neshek 147 (204, 2006)
RP Matt Guerrier 184
RP Jesse Crain 79 (164, 2005)
RP *Dennys Reyes 109 (504, 2006)
RP *Carmen Cali 92

and the up to date status of the lineup:

C *Joe Mauer 117 (144, 2006)
1B *Justin Morneau 121 (140, 2006)
2B #Alexi Casilla 39
3B *Brian Buscher 76
SS Brendan Harris 106
LF/DH *Jason Kubel 109
RF Michael Cuddyer 111 (124, 2006)
CF Delmon Young 98 (106, 2006)
DH/LF Craig Monroe 65 (104, 2005)


bench:
OF Jason Pridie (.914 OPS in AAA)
3B #Nick Punto 52 (90, 2006)
OF *Jason Tyner 85 (97, 2005)
C Mike Redmond 89 (103, 2006)
IF #Luis Rodriguez 57 (90, 2005)

A few items of interest: Delmon Young is a better RF than a CF and Pridie is a very good CF. Could it be possible that Cuddyer moves back to 3B with Young in RF and Priddie in CF? Harris is a better 2B than a SS, could it be possible that he is meant to be a 2B with Jose Reyes coming in a Santana trade for SS?

more details as they come...