Showing posts with label Postal Service. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Postal Service. Show all posts

31 January 2020

US Postal Service Employment Update

2018 Total 634,447 Career 497,157.

2007 Total 786,000 Career 685,000.

1999 Total 906,000 Career 798,000.


19 year drop: Total -271,553 (-30.0%) Career -300,843 (-37.7%).

19 year increase in U.S. population: +17.15%.

19 year drop per capita: Total -40.3% Career -46.8%.

There is no good reason to think that U.S. Postal Service employment cuts will not continue.

Note that not only is this a significant decline, it is a significant decline is well paying jobs with benefits disproportionately filled by men who are military veterans and do not have college degrees, a demographic that has been particular hurt by economic trends since the mid-1970s.

03 July 2013

Big Brother Extends To Snail Mail And Almost Everything Else

At the request of law enforcement officials, postal workers record information from the outside of letters and parcels before they are delivered. (Actually opening the mail requires a warrant.) The information is sent to whatever law enforcement agency asked for it. Tens of thousands of pieces of mail each year undergo this scrutiny. . . .
For mail cover requests, law enforcement agencies simply submit a letter to the Postal Service, which can grant or deny a request without judicial review. Law enforcement officials say the Postal Service rarely denies a request. In other government surveillance program, such as wiretaps, a federal judge must sign off on the requests.  The mail cover surveillance requests are granted for about 30 days, and can be extended for up to 120 days. There are two kinds of mail covers: those related to criminal activity and those requested to protect national security. The criminal activity requests average 15,000 to 20,000 per year, said law enforcement officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they are prohibited by law from discussing the requests. The number of requests for antiterrorism mail covers has not been made public. . . .
[The federal government currently operates a program called] the Mail Isolation Control and Tracking program, in which Postal Service computers photograph the exterior of every piece of paper mail that is processed in the United States — about 160 billion pieces last year. It is not known how long the government saves the images.
From Ron Nixon, "U.S. Postal Service Logging All Mail for Law Enforcement", The New York Times (July 3, 2012).

The notion that police could make particularized mail cover requests without a warrant in the course of a criminal investigation has been well established U.S. constitutional law for man decades.  But, very few people are aware that the U.S. Postal system systemically makes copies of the exterior of every single piece of paper mail processed in the United States without any particularized suspicion that a sender or recipient is engaged in criminal activity or is the subject of a particular national security intelligence investigation.

This disclosure must be taken together with the recently disclosed fact that the United States collects metadata (essentially the phone number of the caller, place of a cell phone caller's originating call's location, phone number of the person receiving the call, place of a cell phone call receiver's location, and time and duration of the call) for every single telephone call made in the entire United States.

And, there is also far more pervasive surveillance of e-mail and other Internet activity, including the storage of the full text of every single encrypted e-mail send via the Internet that can be obtained from major e-mail providers, than had been previously understood because the standards under which FISA has been enforced are far more lax that a naïve reading of the statute or disclosures to Congress and the public had suggested.

The Patriot Act gives the federal government the power to access any business records without allowing the provider to tip off the subject of the request (which often appears to include broad blanket requests with no particularized target that the person receiving the request can discern) and has used that on many occasions.  These can include toll road records, airport flight data, interstate bus and train travel reservation and ticketing records, hotel and motel occupancy or reservation records, book purchases and library borrowings, pay TV viewing records, bank account and credit account records, casino records, anti-theft device GPS records, GPS tracking records of cell phone locations when not in use, grocery store loyalty card records, utility billing information, surveillance camera tapes, insurance records, medical billing records, pharmacy records, veterinary records, credit reporting records of individuals and businesses, loan application information, employment applications, and more.  Legal privileges provide only limited protection for much of this information.

I suspect, but don't know, that the federal government can obtain records from private DNA testing companies to get the exact DNA profiles of people who have paid to have these done.

Needless to say, there are also a host of federal, state, local and foreign government records which federal authorities can gain access to, if desired (many of which are also available to the general public) in many cases.  Birth and death certificates, immigration records including records of almost all international travel by everyone, motor vehicle license and state ID records, educational records such as transcripts and disciplinary records, criminal and traffic and parking violation records (including arrests never leading to charges filed), property records and lien filings, terrorist watch lists, civil court records, involuntary mental health commitment records, flagged gun purchase waiting period records, motor vehicle ownership records, federal, state and local tax records, corporate information filings, license application filings, police and regulatory action reports, change of address form filings, voter registrations, pet licenses, traffic camera feeds on public roads and highways, background check data including fingerprints, and so on.

Also, while there hasn't been discussion of it yet, the incredibly detailed photographs available from spy satellites whose photos have been displayed to the public in connection with foreign military operations are also perfectly capable of being pointed at locations in the United States.

There are tiny pockets of privacy left, but they reside in an ocean of public information and the private information can often be inferred from the public information.

07 February 2013

Physical Media Still In Decline

* Barnes and Noble, the last major book store chain in the United States, has plans to shut down almost a third of its locations in an effort to staunch the declining profitability of its core dead tree book business and the failure of its Nook entry into the e-book world to replace those profits.
[O]ver the next decade, the chain will reduce its outlets by about twenty a year to reach a figure of about 450-to-500 consumer stores, down from a peak of 726 in 2008. A separate chain of 674 college bookstores (which thrive on tchotchkes and their exclusive franchises) is not part of that calculation. . . .  [Their CEO] disputes the notion that bookstores will be unable to hold their own in the digital era, despite the chain's need to downsize where rents or locations are hurting the prospect of acceptable profitability. Only a handful of the stores--fewer than twenty--are actually losing money, he told the Wall Street Journal's Jeffrey Trachtenberg.
The fact that 97% of its stores are at least breaking even is less impressive when you consider the the demise of most of its competitors has left it with a dominant market share of retail store based dead tree book sales, and that his calculation presumably does not allocate debt incurred at the company-wide level to finance projects like its investment in the Nook to individual stores.

I still like to buy hard copy books and check them out from the library, but there are lots of reading materials that I used to read on paper and now read on a computer screen for both work and pleasure.  I read hundreds of academic journal articles and opinions in court cases a year, but I haven't read more than half a dozen academic journal articles on paper since the early 1990s.  The last time that I read an opinion in a court case out of a book was probably at least a decade ago.

* Colorado Academy, a secular private school in the Denver metropolitan area, is replacing almost all of its dead tree textbooks with tablet computer based electronic media next year.  They've downsized student lockers in their new building as a result.

* Blockbuster consolidated into one chain all but a handful of independent stores into its retail store based movie rental business in the United States, although it does not control kiosks rentals for new DVD releases, DVD rentals by mail and download via Netflix and a few other companies, and DVD sales in a variety of outlets.  Since that consolidation and following a bankruptcy, it has then dramatically trimmed the number of retail locations that it operates itself and has devoted almost no resources to making those locations desirable.  The remaining retail stores (just one in all of Denver) mostly seem to be ways to lure people in to receive Dish TV marketing and liquidate inventory that closed stores didn't manage to shed.  The result is that it is now much harder to get older movies on DVD if they aren't available at a library.

* The United States Post Office announced this week that it will soon be discontinuing Saturday mail delivery to save about $2 billion a year in expenses, despite a lack of clarity on what authorization it must secure to do so.

A few years ago, this seemed like a hardship.  These days, I feel as if I will hardly miss it.  Apart from Christmas cards, bills, and a few magazine subscriptions (none of which are so time urgent that Saturday mail delivery matters), no one gets the mail at the office on Saturdays, and I get very little non-junk mail these days at home.  I correspond regularly with family and all sorts of other people via e-mail and text, but I can't recall the last time I wrote a personal letter on paper that didn't accompany a package.

* It has been quite a few years since I mailed in a tax return or a filed a physical court document (with the exception of one collections action in one small claims court that has since converted to e-filing and a few original Wills).

* Scanned copies of documents transmitted via e-mail have almost entirely superseded the slightly less emphemeral fax machine over the past few years, at least in my world practicing law.  Some industries (like adversising promotion companies) appear to still routinely use faxes, but their ranks are waning.

* The only reasons I use removable media in my computer these days are to install new hardware, to transfer very large volumes of files in litigation, and to access DVDs and CDs that I have checked out from the library.  I have a physical backup hard drive (for some of my data, a cloud based backup for other parts of it, and a LAN server for yet other parts), but use a USB connection or Ethernet connection to hook up my computers to these resources when I am actually using them.

 

28 November 2011

Gun Nuts Strike Again

A couple of paranoid gun nuts in Avon, Colorado are suing for the right to bring guns into the post office. Leaving the guns on a car parked on the across the street is just too much of an infringement on their right to bear arms, they think. Never mind that their choice makes everyone else less safe.

The rule they seek wouldn't necessarily have wide application, however. Avon is unusual in not having home mail delivery (FWIW, a better idea than cutting Saturday mail delivery that would build community and make sense in far more places).

Their battle makes fighting for the right to party and bra burning look positively respectable and non-violent by comparison.

03 February 2011

Dex v. Seattle

Dex, a distributor of phone books is challenging a Seattle ordinance allowing people to put themselves on a "no phone book" list, as a violation of its First Amendment rights in a suit filed November 15.

I have about eight phone books in a cabinet in my house that almost never get used for anything. My children show no interest in learning how to use one, my wife doesn't like the small print. I use one half a dozen times a year, and don't use three-quarters of the phone books I receive at all. I'm a phone book advertiser myself, but increasingly even they are pitching the Internet component of their business, rather than the paper copy element.

Opt-out laws, in general, have been upheld against constitutional challenge in multiple cases cited in the link above to a post by Venkat Balasubramani at Eric Goldman's blog including Rowan v. United States Post Office, 39 U.S. 728 (1970)(indecent junk mail); State of Mo. v. American Blast Fax, Inc., 323 F.3d 649 (8th Cir. 2003)(junk faxes); FTC v. Mainstream Marketing Services, 345 F. 3d 850 (10th Cir. 2003) (no call list).

The main constitutional objections raised by the Yellow Book companies to the statute are that:

- the statute singles out yellow pages from all other types of unsolicited pamphlets, without reference to the harms sought to be remedied;
- the City made exceptions to satisfy local business interests, such as business associations;
- the ordinance also contains a licensing scheme which is at best highly suspect;
- the statute compels the yellow pages publishers to publish an unwanted message (in the form of opt-out notices and messaging on the cover)
- the statute charges the yellow pages companies to dispose of the books even though the unwanted or discarded books are recycled or disposed of by the recipients;
- yellow pages companies already employ opt-out mechanisms and have no interest in delivering yellow pages to recipients who do not want them (there's no indication that the opt-out system set up by the City will be more effective).


The objection to a statute that involves yellow pages being a content based restriction that favors local interests isn't particularly strong, because the content basis ties into the resident choice to be on the opt-out list, and any flaws in it could probably be easily remedied with an improved definition (e.g. printed material of 150 pages or more with commercial content not expressly requested by the resident, not distributed by an organization of which the resident is a member, and not delivered by the U.S.P.S.).

Any problem with the requirement of a $100 license fee, the reporting requirement (to list the number of yellow pages distributed), or the unwanted message also seems doubtful, particularly to the extent that any defect in the definition of yellow pages is cured. All sorts of businesses are required to make disclosures about laws that have an impact on them, the reporting requirement is no more onerous than constitutional requirements applied to every periodical distributor, and the license fee is not out of line with business privilege licenses that apply to all businesses (and could be made a part of a general business privilege license by requiring the fee and disclosure of yellow book distributions to all business license holders). Allowing licenses of regulated businesses that don't comply to have their licenses yanked also seems constitutional.

No of the prior law on opt out has ever suggested that a private opt-out option makes it constitutionally impermissible to have a legally required opt-out option, and there is good reason to think that a government administered one would work beter.

The most interesting challenged provision is that one that provides for "a 'recovery fee' designed to recoup recycling costs ($0.14 per book and $148.00 per ton of yellow pages)." Similar costs are imposed on tire companies and oil change companies, and it is hard to see how this fee is materially different from a constitutional perspective. Arguably, this makes the content discrimination claim stronger, but one alternative would be to apply the fee of $148.00 per ton to all unsolicited paper (something on the order of 40,000 to 200,000 pages) distributed (for profit or in excess of a certain number of pages or both) outside the U.S. Postal System (where federal pre-emption probably applies). While this fee would be a notable burden on yellow page companies, it would still be a modest part of their total production costs, would be very modest when applied to other door to door flier distributors.

On the whole, the Seattle law seems either constitutional or easily remedied, sensible, and worth considering duplicated in Denver once constitutional concerns are resolved in Seattle's case.

23 July 2010

A Dozen Stray Friday Afternoon Ideas

What follows are a few ideas for making our world better that I haven't gotten around to hashing out at length, but want to record before they are forgotten:

* Motorcycle EMTs: In urban areas where traffic is a problem, delaying the arrival of an ambulance, fire truck or police car to the scene where someone needs emergency medical treatment, why not deploy an EMT by motorcycle to provide care and stabilize a patient until an ambulance arrives? In rural areas, the equivalent would be to have an EMT who could drop from a helicopter or ride out on a snowmobile or jet ski to some place that is difficult for a flight for life helicopter or ambulance to pick up a patient in a timely fashion.

Of course, this idea only makes sense if the skills of the EMT, and not the heavy equipment of the larger vehicle or the actually arrival time at a full fledged ER matter.

* Satellite ERs: How feasible would it be to develop stand alone emergency rooms that provide care almost as good as one at a conventional hospital? Many hospitals seem to be relocating or closing. Consolidation isn't that big a deal for non-emergency care like planned surgeries. But, distance is the enemy in emergency care where the "hour of power" after a medical event in which high end medical care can be most effective is critical.

* Devil's Advocates in Search Warrant and Grand Jury Proceedings: The empirical evidence strongly suggest that lawyers who request things like search warrants from courts and indictments from grand juries in ex parte proceedings almost always prevail. A right to counsel for the subjects of search warrants and arrest warrants would be infeasible. Surprise is often critical to reducing risk to law enforcement, and the name and contact information of the suspects is often unavailable anyway.

But, what if the public defender's office had someone assigned to argue on behalf of suspects generally in courts where search warrants and arrest warrants are issued, providing someone with a knowledge of the law to challenge assertions of law and inferences from the facts made by prosecutors?

The substantive law of search, seizure and arrest wouldn't have to change at all. There would simply be an additional person present who could make arguments in the hearings before an impartial magistrate that are already required. Similarly, in a grand jury hearing, there would simply be one more person present who could cross-examine witnesses and make arguments after the prosecutor made the case for an indictment.

Evidence from the differences between the results of grand juries, which are ex parte, and preliminary hearings, which are not, suggest that this would materially reduce the likelihood that warrants would issue where probable cause that a crime was committed was absent.

Since defending a criminal case imposes serious costs on criminal defendants even when the criminal defendant wins, the societal interest in preventing weak cases from moving forward is real.

* Mandatory credit card PINs: In Europe, credit cards almost universally require a PIN (personal identification number) to authorize a transaction, the same kind of authorization required in the U.S. for ATM cards. In the U.S. this is not required. The empirical evidence shows that the use of PINs dramatically reduces the amount of simple credit card theft that takes place. For example, in a system where a PIN is required to use a credit card, a stolen wallet is much less likely to lead to monetary loss.

The lack of security isn't much of a concern to U.S. card holders because if there is a theft by credit card, the charges can usually be reversed with a little hassle. Credit card companies don't care all that much, because bad debt losses are vastly larger than credit card losses, there is fierce competition to win credit card customers, in part, by maximizing convenience, and the merchants who dealt with the thief can often be made to bear the loss. But, a higher incident of credit card theft losses does impose a burden on the criminal justice system. Even more importantly, it provides economic fuel for criminal activity generally. The less economic gain stealing someone's wallet provides, the less likely it is that someone will steal wallets, and the harder it is to make money with criminal activities generally, the less likely it is that people will become criminals.

A law requiring that credit cards have PINs would solve the race to the bottom problem of competition between credit card companies and materially reduce theft losses.

In the same vein, it appears that new anti-theft measures making it hard to hot wire a care have dramatically reduced the incidence of auto theft in the United States.

* Biometric authorization of transactions: Some stores require a fingerprint from someone who wants to use a check. The New York Bar exam requires it from applicants. The DIA parking lot takes photos of the license plates of cars that don't pay for parking on the spot.

Technologies like digital photos and carbon copy paper make it possible to get someone's fingerprint without making a mess. Indeed, a fingerprint could be accompanied by a routine digital camera photo of the customer similar to the ones that are always taken by ATM machines. This serves a couple of purposes: (1) it proves in an easy to confirm after the fact way that the person named actually authorized the transaction, and (2) it provides a way to identify a criminal who engaged in fraud in a transaction through existing law enforcement databases. Signatures do neither very effectively, because identifying someone from a signature is inexact and because the increasingly common practice of having signatures collected with a stylus on a glass screen produces an atypical signature anyway.

The idea of using a fingerprint as a method of authorizing a transaction could be extended to a wide variety of financially important transactions.

Why not largely replace signatures with fingerprints as a way of authorizing economically important transactions? It certainly isn't immune to forgery and abuse, but it would seem to be better by any measure than signatures for security purposes.

Signet rings and personal seals were used in much of the world for this purpose before signatures came into wide use (and personal seals remain the norm in Japan and possibly elsewhere for this purpose in important transactions). What seal is more personal than a fingerprint?

Interestingly, a variant on this idea, hopefully not one that becomes widespread, would be for the authorizing person to leave a drop of blood on the document that could be DNA tested in the event of a dispute. There are already pens whose ink has a distinctive DNA marker designed for the same purpose.

Another variant on this idea would be to make in the norm that every bank setting up bank account have a photo of its customer on file that would come up on a screen that a teller could see whenever anyone attempted to make a withdrawal from a bank teller.

It is also worth recalling that the purpose of a measure like this one is as much to discourage fraud as it is to catch it. It makes it clear to a would be criminal that escaping detection is futile unless a highly sophisticated and costly scheme to overcome the security measure is taken.

* Neighborhood mail boxes: When I was in college, there was one mail room for every student in the college. You arrived more or less daily to take mail out of your box, and often socialized with other people you knew in the process. This approach isn't restricted to college campuses. Vail, Colorado does not have house to house mail delivery. New suburbs almost invariably have mail delivered to a cluster of boxes in the neighborhood, rather than to individual houses. Presumably, it is more efficient to deliver mail this way.

Rather than cut Saturday mail service or make other major cuts to mail delivery, why not convert more communities to the cluster of boxes mail delivery system. This could produce major reductions in delivery costs in both urban areas and rural ones, with the savings in rural areas being particularly dramatic. It would also provide a modest means by which the social capital of neighborhoods would be strengthened.

Going to a mail box a short distance from my home is not that big of an inconvenience compared to other proposed mail service cuts.

This also has the incidental side effect of increasing the sanctity of one's property against governmental intrusion. If mail is delivered to a cluster box down the road that means that there isn't a government official stepping onto our door step every day.

* Require financial accountants to be bonded or insured: One of the things that made the Bernie Madoff Ponzi scheme problematic is that the CPAs who signed off on the financial reports it sent to the SEC were from an effectively judgment proof firm, so holding them liable for their complicity in the fraud didn't help make the victims whole. Adequate bonding and insurance requirements for firms that provide financial reports for publicly held companies might change this, by leaving fiscally robust parties to partially compensate those harmed when accounting and auditing failures don't catch frauds.

* Create a centralized national/international professional discipline database: Almost every profession has some sort of licensing process and revokes licenses for cause. But, unlike criminal records databases, professional discipline databases are not highly centralized. Unless an applicant says so by answering truthfully on an application, there is probably no way that a real estate agent licensing board in Colorado could know that the applicant has had a federal broker's license revoked for fraud, for example.

This is further amplified by the common process in some jurisdictions of only privately disciplining someone for professional misconduct as a warning.

A centralized national database would allow a professional licensing regulator in one jurisdiction to instantly learn of any professional discipline an applicant had received in any other jurisdiction for any profession, not just the one applied for.

This might make it easier to prevent people with a track history of professional misconduct from being put into new positions of trust.

* Biometric databases for re-entry to the U.S. of American citizens: Today, one proves that one is a U.S. citizen and thus allowed to re-enter the United States, by presenting a passport. But, passports can be lost or stolen. Why not put the photographic information present in a passport, and additional biometric identification, like a fingerprint, into an electronic database available to border agents? Then, a U.S. citizen could simply enter a name and allow him or herself to be compared against the database, in lieu of presenting a passport. This kind of system would also allow passports presented to be checked against the document itself, so that altered photographs or identifying information could be detected. The paper document might still have value and could still be issued and used, but wouldn't be sole way that U.S. border agents would know that someone was or was not a U.S. citizen.

* Military seaplanes: The U.S. military has at various times in its history used seaplanes for a variety of purposes but has none in its active duty arsenal today. This is too bad, because there are a variety of niches where seaplanes could have military value.

There are far more small bodies of water where a plane could land in much of the world than there are field air strips. Helicopters can land almost anywhere but are slower, have shorter ranges, are less fuel efficient and are less reliable the conventional airplanes.

Seaplanes could be particularly valuable if coupled with something like the proposed Marine Expeditionary Fighting Vehicle, which is basically an amphibious armored personnel carrier. A few seaplanes could land in a lake, deploy these amphibious vehicles, and put medium weight U.S. forces in all sorts of places in the world where it would be more difficult to deploy troops that heavy by other means.

Seaplanes are also well suited to search and rescue missions in the open sea (compared to helicopters that have shorter range). They would also be a useful alternative to helicopters to resupply naval ships at sea. One could also imagine seaplanes that were supported by ships or submarines, which are much cheaper and easier to keep continuously in service, rather than air tankers.

* Military transport submarines: One of the missions the U.S. military is called upon from time to time to perform is to resupply areas that have been interdicted by opposing forces. The classic example is the Berlin airlift. The trouble with doing that by air is that transporting heavy or bulk items by air is very expensive.

Other U.S. military missions include getting people or things out of a place (e.g. evacuating expatriots from a regime that has fallen apart, or getting recovered nuclear materials out of a foreign nation), and deploying heavy U.S. military equipment or bulk supplies into areas where U.S. forces don't have perfect control of the sea.

For example, the mere threat of Iranian attack could entirely shut down the delivery of goods and people by sea in and out of the Persian Gulf, even if it was actually done only infrequently.

Anti-submarine warfare is very hard to do, even with sophisticated technologies. Submarines are much harder to attack than surface ships.

So, why not develop a U.S. capability to deploy transport submarines to transport loads much heavier or bulkier than those it is economic to transport by air in places where there is incomplete control of the sea? A transport submarine could be used, for example, to prevent Taiwan from being choked off by the threat of Chinese or North Korean attacks on merchant or transport ships.

We have a proven ability to build large submarines like the Ohio class submarines with considerable cargo capacity if designed for that purpose, and we have a need to keep the skills and technologies involved in building nuclear powered submarines in existence, but the need for nuclear attack submarines dramatically declined with the end of the Cold War and attack submarines are very expensive to build.

In contrast, a large submarine that was designed to serve simply as a transport could be far less expensive, and have a smaller crew, while at the same time filling a gap in U.S. military capabilities. It would require no technologies that aren't well proven, and would not need to be designed to function in the extreme depths where U.S. nuclear attack submarines and ballistic missile submarines operate.

While considerable time and money has been devoted to figuring out better ways to deploy small special forces units by submarine, sea vessels are better suited to deploying heavy or large units than they are to deploying small units that could also be deployed by small seacraft or aircraft. An ability to have those kinds of resources near to a potential conflict without announcing their presence as a large surface ship would, could be a useful capability.

* Subsidize satellite telecommunications:

The United States spends about $75 billion a year and employs something like 850,000 people in the public and private sectors combined (i.e. civil servants and intelligence contractors) to spy on foreign countries. A large share of that money goes into spy satellites, sophisticated wiretapping technologies, code breaking tools, Internet scanning technologies, electronic bugs, and the like. More goes into hiring CIA agents to develop informant networks.

One of the premises of the huge expenditure we make for intelligence activities (which employ more people in the U.S. than we have practicing attorneys) is that the information that is worth having to guide our policy decisions is mostly secret.

This isn't at all obvious. For all its money and personnel, the New York Times, Wall Street Journal and Washington Post, combined, with a tiny fraction of the resources of the major government intelligence agencies. Blogs that cater to specialists in particular professions, academic specialties, or residents of a particular area often have news well before it becomes widely known for the asking.

The CIA and State Department know this, and subscribe to news outlets all over the world to add to their own data collection. But, many parts of the world have very thin supplies of journalists or bloggers, in part because the government controls the media and access to the Internet.

But, increased intelligence spending has focused almost entirely on increasing the in house information collection capacities of spy agencies, rather than looking at the big picture of how to increase the production of information generally.

There are content neutral ways that the flow of third party information like journalistic reports of things that aren't truly secret, but aren't widely known, could be increased.

For example, one of the big limitations in much of the world, particularly in closed societies, to communicating, is a lack of internet access or telephone networks that aren't monitored by their repressive governments. Satellite based telephone service and internet access are available in theory, but the subscription costs are often prohibitively high, particularly for journalists and participants in civil society in less wealthy countries.

If subscription costs for these services could be made free or available at a very low cost to people in these countries (just as GPS signals are now), an immense flow of information would develop. The social impact would greatly exceed that of the already powerful impact that access to satellite television has had in much of the Arab world.

It would cost some money to keep the satellites running, and people would still have to purchase the hardware to access the service, but this would tremendously empower groups like social movements in China, political activists in Burma, dissident forces in Iran, a journalists in many parts of the world, at a cost that we would happily pay many billions of dollars more to achieve than this cost by conventional means. Much of the information, moreover, would be available to intelligence agencies, often intentionally openly and relevant to U.S. concerns, at a cost that would be a tiny fraction of the cost of maintaining a network of informants to get that kind of information.

But, because the satellites could be monitored in the same way that the NSA already has the authority to monitor international telecommunications, these resources would not be nearly so useful to people who would like to use it to carry out plots against the United States.

06 July 2010

3-1-1 Still Annoying

The security theater of the Transportation Security Administration's 3-1-1 policy, limiting travelers to a quart bag of liquids and gels of no more than 3.4 ounces each still doesn't make sense. And, in case you were wondering, the security level at American airports is still not green. Per Wikipedia:

The HSAS threat level has changed 17 times as of September 2009. In August 2004, DHS began identifying specific sectors under possible threat, including aviation, financial services, and mass transit.

Severe (Red)

The threat level has been raised to Severe only once, which applied only to flights coming from the United Kingdom:

* August 10–14, 2006, in response to British law enforcement announcing it had disrupted a major terror plot to blow up an aircraft, DHS raised the threat level for commercial flights from the United Kingdom to the United States to Severe.

High (Orange)

On a nationwide level, it has been raised to High five times:

* September 10–24, 2002, the first anniversary of the September 11, 2001 attacks.
* February 7–27, 2003, near the end of the Muslim religious holiday Hajj. Intelligence reports suggested the possibility of terrorist attacks against "apartment buildings, hotels, and other soft or lightly secured targets."
* March 17 – April 16, 2003, around the beginning of U.S. and Coalition military action in Iraq.
* May 20–30, 2003, after the Riyadh compound bombings and the Casablanca bombings. According to Tom Ridge: "The U.S. Intelligence Community believes that Al Qaeda has entered an operational period worldwide, and this may include terrorist attacks in the United States."
* December 21, 2003 – January 9, 2004, citing intelligence information suggesting large-scale attacks around the holiday season.

In addition, the alert has been raised to High on a select or partial basis three times:

* August 1 – November 10, 2004, for specific financial institutions in northern New Jersey, New York, and Washington, D.C., citing intelligence pointing to the possibility of a car or truck bomb attack, naming specific buildings as possible targets.
* July 7, 2005 – August 12, 2005, for mass transit systems only. The DHS secretary announced the level after the 7 July 2005 London bombings despite the absence of "specific, credible information suggesting imminent attack" in the United States.
* August 10, 2006 – present, for all domestic airline flights and all international flights to or from the United States, with the exception of flights from the United Kingdom to the United States. Flights from the United Kingdom to the United States had been under a Severe alert, but were downgraded to High on August 13, 2006.

Elevated (Yellow)

* March 12 – September 10, 2002
* September 25, 2002 – February 6, 2003
* February 28 – March 16, 2003
* April 17 – May 20, 2003
* May 31, 2003 – August 1, 2004
* November 10, 2004 – July 8, 2005
* August 12, 2005 – present (excluding domestic and international flights)

Low (Green) and Guarded (Blue)

The threat level has never been lowered to Low (Green) or Guarded (Blue).


Hearings on ending Saturday delivery for the U.S. Postal Service start July 12, and rate increases are also in the offing.

27 May 2009

U.S. Postal Service Shrinks

The U.S. Postal Service employed 906,000 employees including 798,000 career employees in 1999, its peak in recent history. As of 2007, that had fallen to 786,000 employees of whom 685,000 were career employees. So, over the past nine years, U.S. Postal Service employment has fallen by 220,000 (about 24% and just 32,000 less than the current total global employment of General Motors in 2008) and by 113,000 career employees (about 14%).

Of course, nearly all of these cuts come from domestic federal government jobs that pay reasonably well, and in the career employee case, at least, come with decent benefits and job security and are largely unionized. Not all of the eliminated jobs have been removed from the economy entirely. Many have been outsourced to commercial mailhouses, which still employ people and are mostly domestic, but are less plum in the salary, benefits and job security offered.

13 August 2008

USPS Outsourcing

Unbossed notes a recent GAO report critical of the United States Postal Service's inability to determine cost savings associated with out sourcing.

What Is Outsourcing?

This makes me wonder what precisely constitutes United States Postal Service outsourcing. The most important form of outsourcing by the U.S.P.S., although not everyone recognizes it as a form of outsourcing, arises from its preferential rates for bulk mail, from pre-sorting rates, and from zone rates for mail deliveries.

Typically, the person who wants to send lots of mail employs a commercial mail house that uses information in a customer database to print form letters, in the order required to obtain pre-sorting rates, at a local printing shop in the same postal zone as the postal zone where the mail will be delivered.

There is no doubt that pre-delivery outsourcing practices encouraged by bulk rates save the postal service money. Pre-sorted, single zone bulk mail is much cheaper for the postal service to handle because the post office doesn't have to do as much with those items of mail. The ability of mail houses to merge the process of printing the actual item to be delivered to customers, and the process of preparing it to be mails, is also inherently more efficient than doing the tasks separately. Properly designed, a bulk mail printing job can be done in pre-sort order with proper postage for no more money than a bulk mail printing that is prepared for mailing separately.

For the customer, this minimizes per item mailing costs. For the postal service, this eliminates most of the long haul transportation costs, and most of the sorting burden involved in getting mail from the sender to the individual postal worker who will actually deliver the mail.

Wage Issues In Outsourcing

Government monopolies are relatively easy to unionize. You only have to campaign to get union recognition once, and the entity will likely stay unionized forever. While they can outsource to some extent, they can't go off shore. They are subject to political control and protected by civil service rules that limit the most ruthless union busting activity.

The postal service pays its average employee about $62,000 a year, which isn't bad, considering that about 6 out of 7 of those jobs are relatively low skilled, non-supervisory jobs as clerks, as mail handlers, as mail carriers, as truck drivers, and for janitorial and handyman work. In exchange, the U.S.P.S. gets reliability, consitency, a well qualified work force, and an important jobs program that provides honest work for military veterans who have preference for the jobs which significantly impacts the nature of the work force.

Since the Post Office is run as a government owned non-profit that seeks to simply break even over the medium to long term, we also have the comfort of knowing that none of the user's fees paid to maintain the postal system go towards shareholder dividends or fat pay packages for senior executives. Top U.S.P.S. executives make decent incomes, but they are chump change compared to the lavish compensation packages afforded senior executives in private industry in enterprises of this scale. Thousands of dollars per employee of above market rate compensation to postal service employees is basically payback for the costs avoided by not having to pay excessive compensation to Wall Street and senior management.

The high skill level and reliability of postal employees, also allows the U.S.P.S. to have a quite low percentage of supervisors and managers relative to a typical private enterprise.

The Post Office's pay structure looks more like a typical publicly held Japanese or European company, and less like a typical American company.

In the private sector, retail service jobs comparable to that of clerks, mail handling jobs comparable to that of factory workers, truck driving jobs, delivery jobs and building services jobs pay considerably less and come with fewer benefits. Private sectors jobs tend to have more turnover, less qualified workers in these kinds of jobs, and less job security. Often, they are non-union jobs and of course, they don't come with civil service protections.

Our current economy has lots of people who are able to fill jobs that aren't highly skilled, like most postal jobs and comparable work; but such jobs are increasingly scarce, because many of these kinds of jobs have been sent abroad and because technology has eliminated many less skilled jobs. Even within the postal service, robotic kiosks are replacing a significant share of work once done by clerks from a modest price compared to the payroll costs involved in employing a clerk.

The Economic Importance of Accurate Bulk Rates

If bulk mail and pre-sorting and zone discounts accurately reflect the cost savings associated with those kinds of mail, then it is up to the private sector to decide if it is more cost effective to have the sorting and transportation functions done by the postal service, or if it is more effective to have those tasks done either by a third party mail house, or an in house bulk mail operation.

Of course, if bulk mail rates are set too low, private mail houses will end up doing jobs that could be done cheaper by postal service employees. Similarly, if bulk mail rates are set too high, people who want to send mail will have printing of the items and the mailing of the items done separately, even though this is clearly less efficient.

What Outsourcing Matters Most?

I suspect that when the GAO is talking about outsourcing, that they are really talking about contract post offices, the outsourcing of express mail services to Federal Express, and the like. But, the importance of "traditional" outsourcing by the U.S.P.S. is really trivial in magnitude compared to the importance of the invisible pre-post office outsourcing that occurs as a result of bulk mail rate structures.

Bulk mail accounts for more than half of the items delivered by the postal service, and about a third of postal service revenue (the statistics cited don't segregate out first class and priority mail which receives a pre-sorting, but not a "standard mail" discount, such as credit card and utility bills). So, bulk and pre-sorted mail effective outsources something on the order of $20 billion of postal business each year, based upon the cost of having the postal service do the work.

By comparison, U.S. Postal Service Express Mail, which is basically outsourced to Federal Express, is a little less than a $1 billion a year business, and franchised post offices are a pretty small percentage of the total number of post office locations and also tend to have lower volume than a typical publicly owned post office.

Yet, no one is seriously proposing that the United States Post Office get into the bulk mail printing business, as it would have to in order to realize these economies for its customers.

Do we need another tier of bulk rates?

To my knowledge, there is also no rate structure currently in place to provide additional bulk rate savings for commercial mail houses that not only sort bulk mailing by route, but also sort mailing from multiple customers with different items into consolidated route packages which are also pre-sorted by address. Multi-bulk mailer intra-route pre-sorting would save the people who actually deliver mail a great deal of time. It would also open up the possibility of allowing individuals and small businesses to electronically transmit individual mail items to a mail house for printing and mailing off site for something less than the ordinary first class postage rate, if basic rules on paper size, paper type and numbers of pages were adhered to by the small mailer.

This new tier of postal rates would promote mail house industry consolidation by creating an advantage that only the largest mail houses could benefit from, but would only do so because the economies of scale involved are real.

Increased incentives to use bulk rates would, of course, also undermine postal unions by reducing the amount of work done by postal workers in favor of mail house workers. But this concern would be mostly mitigated, if unions managed to unionize most major mail houses.

Then again, maybe we'd be better off if Congress rethought the mission of the United States Postal System and expanded its mandate to include the mail house business as well. After all, the U.S.P.S. is set up like a utility or cooperative, so it can secure economies of scale without the abuses associated with private sector monopolies or restraint of competition.

09 October 2007

Selected Snail Mail Statistics

As shown in briefing prepared for this Commission by Richard Strasser, the chief financial officer of the Postal Service, total mail volume has decreased for the past two years by some five billion pieces, from 208 to 203 billion. First-class, single piece letter volume has dropped by almost 10 percent since 1998, from 54.3 to 49.3 billion pieces. The bottom line effect has been a series of deficits for the Postal Service (although a surplus is expected this year).

The Postal Service's analysis of types of mail is also telling. "Nonhousehold to nonhousehold" (presumably business to business mail) has dropped from 37 percent to 26 percent of total volume from 1987 to 2001. Household to household (presumably personal mail) has remained relatively insignificant, at 7 percent in 2001. That leaves mail between households and nonhouseholds, presumably businesses to individuals with a dominant 67 percent of volume.


Dated February 14, 2003.

The modern Postal Service delivers 138 percent more mail to 85 percent more delivery points today with just 2.5 percent more work hours than it did in 1971 when it was created.

The USPS maintains the most affordable postage in the world. A first-class stamp, which costs 37 cents in America, costs 72 cents in Japan, 67 cents in Germany and 54 cents in Britain. While in dollar terms stamps are cheaper in New Zealand, their cost is higher relative to hourly wages of workers there.

The USPS is financially independent of the rest of the federal government, generating all its own revenues with no subsidies from American taxpayers.

Taxpayer subsidies to the USPS were phased out between 1971, when they covered 23 percent of costs, and 1983. Today, an appropriation to the Postal Service proportional to that paid in 1971 would cost nearly $16 billion annually. The USPS is authorized to receive compensation of $460 million per year for operating unprofitable post offices, but has not requested or received this “public service” subsidy in more than 18 years. The direct savings to taxpayers: $12 billion through 2005.

In fiscal year 2005, the USPS sorted and delivered nearly 212 billion pieces of mail, about 680 million pieces a day.

The USPS delivers more items in one day than Federal Express does in a year and more items in one week than United Parcel Service does in a year.

The Postal Service delivers to 143 million businesses and households each day, six days per week. UPS delivers to 7 million addresses daily while FedEx serves even fewer.

The number of delivery points (households and businesses) served by the Postal Service grows by 5,900 every delivery day — some 1.8 million addresses a year.


From the National Association of Letter Carriers

The cost of universal service is a surprisingly small portion of the Postal Service’s $70 billion budget. In 1999, losses on unprofitable routes were $2.6 billion; about half of the losses were sustained on just ten percent of the routes. The cost of the 10,000 smallest post offices (out of a total of 28,000) was $567 million. Six-day-a-week delivery is also frequently cited as a universal service requirement. An upperbound on the savings from eliminating a delivery day is $1.9 billion (the daily fixed cost of residential delivery).

There is no urban to rural cross-subsidy. Analyses of revenues and costs byroute show that routes serving rural areas are, in total, quite profitable. Overall, because the Postal Service is required to break even (i.e., earn no net profit), a large number of routes are necessarily unprofitable. However, the proportion of unprofitable routes in the U.S. is approximately the same for urban and rural areas. Volume, not population density or urban character, is the major determinant of profits on delivery routes in the U.S. . . .

Extensive competition exists in mail processing and transportation due to worksharing discounts. Far more of the postal value chain is in the private sector in the U.S. than in any other country. Without worksharing, Postal Service costs would be 25 percent higher. . . .

Table 1 displays thedelivery profits (losses) by semi decile of the 230 thousand delivery routes of the U.S.Postal Service.

Table 1

Annual Route Profits (Losses) by Semi Decile(FY 99, $ Millions)

1 $2,224
2 1,007
3 772
4 640
5 523
6 423
7 329
8 261
9 182
10 113
11 46
12 (13)
13 (72)
14 (131)
15 (193)
16 (254)
17 (317)
18 (391)
19 (503)
20 (742)

Total Profits 6,520
Total Losses (2,615)
Net Profits 3,905 . . . .

Rather than abandon service to all unprofitable routes it would be better from a business standpoint to curtail delivery frequency on the loss making routes until they are at least breakeven. A post that delivers 6 days per week could reduce service on each loss making routes just enough so that it was no longer unprofitable. Each route wouldbe reduced to 5, 4, 3, 2 or 1 day per week according to the size of the loss on particular routes. . . .

Table 2
Cost Savings from Reducing Delivery Dayson Non-Business Routes(FY 99)

Cost Savings [$ billions]; Percent of Total Costs
5 days $1.9 billion 3.0%
4 days 3.8 6.1%
3 days 5.7 9.1%
2 days 7.6 12.1%
1 day 9.5 15.2%

While many posts in industrialized countries deliver six days a week, severaldeliver only five days without apparent problems (Australia, Austria, Canada, Finland,Greece, Ireland, Luxembourg, Portugal, Spain and Sweden). Sweden Post’scompetitor, City Mail, delivers every third business day. Thus, six-day-a-week deliverymay not be necessary to retain volume. . .

The distribution of the various types of delivery for the USPS in FY 99 were:

City Carriers (166,743)
Foot11.5%
Park & Loopa70.6%
Curb17.8%

Rural Carriers (63,552)
Roadside100%

a“Park and loop” refers to a route where the carrier parks his or her vehicle and serves a group of houses on foot, returns to the vehicle and drives to another location, andso on.

Foot routes and park and loop routes involve delivery to the door while curb delivery is to a box placed by the street in front of the residence and roadside delivery is to a boxplaced alongside a road that is traveled by a rural carrier.

In the mid-1970’s the PostalService stopped serving new housing developments with park and loop routes. Since then new housing developments have been served by curb routes. The increasing use of cluster boxes is a continuation of the trend to more efficient delivery. . . .The savings of $778 million, is 1.2 percent of total costs [is the possible savings from converting all park and loop routes to curb routes]. . . .

The 10,127 smallest offices18costthe post office $567 million annually in FY 99. Including personnel and facility costs.This is seven-tenth of one percent of total postal costs. . . .

The amount of the air service cost of parcel post in FY 99 was $99 million or two-tenth of one percent of total costs. This is the upper bound amount that the Postal Service could save if it were to discontinue parcel post service to the Alaska bush. . . .

The term “dropshipping” will be used here to mean mailer transport to enter mail more deeply in the sorting network, thereby bypassing handling operations. . . . The ultimate dropshipment discountis for mail entered at the carrier delivery facility (destination delivery unit - DDU). Mailers of bulk categories (except for First-Class) make extensive use of dropshippingwhich not only saves costs but it also results in improved service.

Advertising mail makes the most extensive use of dropshipping. On average 21 percent of theadvertising mail dropship cost avoidance is from handling and 79 percent is from transportation.

Table 7

Presorted and Barcoded Mail
Volume(billions);Percent of Total Mail; Cost Savings to the USPS($ millions )

First-Class
Single-Piece 57 28% N/A
Non-barcoded Presort 5 2% 43
Barcoded Presort
Basic 5 3% 409
3-Digit 22 11% 1,918
5-Digit 12 6% 1,248
Carrier Route 1 1% 138
Total First-Class 102 51% 3,755

Publications
Basic 1 0% 8
3-Digit 2 1% 125
5-Digit 3 2% 380
Carrier Route 5 2% 923
Total Publications 10 5% 1,436

Advertising Mail
Basic 9 4% 272
3/5-Digit 41 20% 2,679
Carrier Route 36 18% 4,613
Total Advertising Mail 86 42% 7,564

Package Services
Single-Piece 0 0% 0
Barcoded Presort 1 0% 136
Total Package Services 1 1% 136

Other Mail 3 1% NA

Total All Mail 202 100% 12,891

In Table 8 no dropshipped volume is shown for First-Class because no such discount is available. An unknown amount of First-Class is dropshipped for service reasons. For all classes of mail it is difficult to assemble the density to make it economically feasible to dropship at the DDU level.

Table 8
Dropshipped Mail
Volume(billions)'Percent of Total Mail; Cost Savings to the USPS($ millions)
First-Class Mail
Nondropshipped 102 51% NA
Total First-Class Mail102 51% NA

Publications
Nondropshipped 7 3% NA
DSCF 3 2% 64
DDU 0 0% 7
Total Publications10 5% 71

Advertising Mail
Nondropshipped 32 16% NA
BMC 19 10% 509
DSCF 27 13% 895
DDU 8 4% 329
Total Advertising Mail 86 42% 1733

Package Services
Nondropshipped 1 0% NA
BMC 0 0% 475
DSCF 0 0% 44
DDU 0 0% 93
Total Package Services 1 1% 612

Other Mail 3 1% NA

Total All Mail 202 100% 2416 . . .

The hierarchy of this network is:
BMCs 21
3-digit areas 900
5-digit areas 24,000
Carrier routes 220,000


From Congressional Testimony on February 20, 2003.