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Last Updated: Thursday, 8 April, 2004, 11:37 GMT 12:37 UK
UK interest rates on hold at 4%
UK interest rates are to remain on hold at 4%, the Bank of England has said.

Economists said the Bank's decision to resist a third rate rise since November was finely balanced.

Manufacturers had argued against any fresh rise, saying it would damage their prospects, particularly in light of the recent strength of the pound.

But galloping house prices and surging consumer debt suggested a rate rise to moderate the boom was being delayed but not cancelled, economists said.

The Bank's decision was welcomed by business groups, with the British Chambers of Commerce saying it was the "preferred choice".

Steve Radley, chief economist of manufacturers' association the EEF, said: "Two rises in three months would have poured fuel on the fire of expectations of further rises to come, potentially pushing the pound to damaging levels against the dollar."

Unsustainable

He said the Bank could afford to wait to assess the impact of the past two rate rises on the economy.

On balance the data over the last month was strong enough for the MPC to tighten, and I wouldn't be surprised if the decision was a close vote
George Buckley, Deutsche Bank

The TUC also backed the decision as did employers' group the CBI.

But minutes of previous meetings show that some of the nine-member rate-setting committee are still concerned about rising consumer debt levels and rapid surges in house prices.

Some have warned that the current levels of house price inflation are unsustainable.

George Buckley, economist at Deutsche Bank, said rates would almost certainly rise in May.

He added: "I'm not sure what sort of data the bank needs to tighten.

"On balance the data over the last month was strong enough for them to tighten, and I wouldn't be surprised if the decision was a close vote."

Howard Archer, economist at Global Insight, agreed: "The vote to leave rates unchanged is likely to have been very close and we believe that a 25 basis point hike is all but certain in May."



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