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Wednesday, September 01, 2004
Quote of the Day
"This is the man who wants to be the Commander in Chief of the US Armed Forces? Armed with what? Spitballs?" -- Democratic Senator Zell Miller on John Kerry, after ticking off the innumerable invaluable weapons systems that Kerry voted against.
Zell On The Attack
If you're not listening now, get to a TV or radio. The transcript will never do it justice. Zell is ripping Kerry apart. "It is not their patriotism, but their judgment, we question." "Twenty years of votes tells you much more about who the man is, than twenty weeks of campaigning does." "Kerry wants Paris do decide when we can defend America" Surely, John Kerry couldn't have forgotten: NEVER make a Marine angry!
Giv'em Zell
Great Zell lines so far: My family is more important than my partyThere are too many good lines to list. I look forward to reading the transcript of this one. The list of weapons systems Kerry opposed is really effective... armed with "spitballs".
Another Endorsement
First it was General Tommy Franks. Now the New York Firefighters are endorsing President Bush.
Mission Accomplished
The must-read Note on what the GOP convention has accomplished: Missions Accomplished in New York:
My Take on the Convention
Tonight is a really important night...we hear from Zell Miller and Dick Cheney. It is believed that both men will concentrate on attacking John Kerry's record of lying, flip-flops, and other disgraceful behaviors. Of course the elitist Kerry campaign will have a hard time responding, especially to Miller. My guess is that Kerry views Miller as a Georgia hayseed who will only be listened to by hayseeds. If that's what the Nantucket elitist, living off his wife's money thinks, then let him do so. Miller speaks for millions of Democrats. Oh, and on this elitist note, you may have seen the ad at the Olde York Times which describes John Kerry as the "metro" candidate and George W. Bush as the "retro" candidate. I just want to send our liberal readers a clear message. I know you think you're elite because you go to art museums, but do you even know what you're looking at through your rose-tinted glasses? I know you think you're elite because you go to operas, but trust me, you wouldn't know the difference between chromaticism and serialism if your life depended on it. And you probably will tell me that you are well-read in the classics. Perhaps, but millions of "retro" American children would also have read them if "elitists" like you didn't think the befuddled masses couldn't handle what you perceive to be "racist" and "sexist" langauge. And most people in "retro" American might be able to pursue the fine arts if they were not spending their time working to pay the taxes you levy on them while you pursue your sham lifestyle. In short, I think liberals are a bunch of preening, pretentious phonies, and since they love French so much, let me describe you using the phrase which the French have coined for your ilk You're a bunch of petty "petite bourgeois."
Wednesday Night Convention Preview
The line up tonight is great. I have written much today about Zell Miller's speech, but haven't even mentioned the Vice President or Mrs. Cheney. Lynne Cheney is extremely eloquent. I think many of those who don't follow politics and couldn't pick her out of a lineup will be surprised by what a good and persuasive speaker she is. Dick Cheney is also an incredibly good, if not electrifying, speaker. His last speech that got really good reviews was a non-political one at Ronald Reagan's funeral. I expect he will be at least that good tonight. I can only imagine what John Edwards will be thinking tonight as he watches it. On a lighter note, literally, I am looking forward to some great country music tonight. I heard Sara Evans and Brooks & Dunn rehearsing on CNN this afternoon and they sounded great. Evans performed "Born to Fly" and Brooks & Dunn did "Only In America." (I predicted which song B&D; would sing, but admittedly, it was not a difficult guess.) UPDATE: I forgot to mention the President's meeting with firefighters tonight. If they do a remote that looks even half as good as the one last night when he introduced Laura, it should be quite a powerful image.
Quote of the Day and More...
According to the New York Times, Karl Rove has "lashed out at liberal filmmaker Michael Moore for predicting a Bush defeat. ``Michael Moore is known for wild flights of fantasy and delusion, and that's another one,'' he said. ``I have no interest in meeting, seeing, hearing, talking, reading, being in the presence of the man.''" You know the Democrats really hate this guy, and I can see why...take a look at the Senate races at the moment: Republican seats-Republicans candidates presently lead in Oklahoma and Colorado, two open GOP seats. The Republican incumbent is tied in Alaska, and polls do not reflect the effect of President Bush's landslide victory in the land of the midnight sun. Of course Illinois is a loss, thanks to incompetence and corruption, but Senator Specter seems to be readying himself to deliver another drubbing to the Democratic Senatorial nominee in the Keystone State. So we're down one...what about the Democrats? South Carolina and Georgia are sure losses. North Carolina may seem tenuous for us now, but the undecideds will heavily favor Burr, who also holds a large financial advantage. In Florida, the GOP now has a candidate who should sweep the Hispanic vote and therefore the state. Congressman Vitter is the strongest Senatorial nominee Republicans have ever nominated in Louisiana. Former Congressman John Thune leads in South Dakota. In Washington, Congressman Nethercutt is quickly closing on the incumbent Democrat. The GOP, if everything goes well, could pick up seven or even eight Senate seats. And looking around the corner doesn't help Democrats either because the outlook for 2006 is anything but promising for liberals.
Talking Points -- Message To The RNC
Listening to so many media types already trying to downplay the significance of Zell Miller's speech only makes me more confident that it is going to be a big winner for President Bush. I know the RNC and Bush campaign pay plenty of smart people lots of money to craft the perfect image, but if those sent out on the talk circuit today do not take the opportunity presented by Zell Miller's speech to also point out the endorsements of Ed Koch, Ron Silver, and the mayors of St. Paul and Youngstown, they have not earned their money. All Republicans interviewed today should be pointing out that not only conservative Democrats like Miller are endorsing Bush, but many liberal, 9/11 Democrats as well. They should ask when the last time was that so many prominent current and former elected officials of the opposing party endorsed a candidate for President. They should also ask where the prominent Republican elected officials endorsing John Kerry are. Not only has Bush gained the endorsement of quite a few high profile Democrats, but he has also kept moderate Republicans, from elected officials such as McCain to issue oriented groups like the Log Cabin Republicans, from endorsing his opponent. This underscores the importance of THE issue of our day, national security. If I don't see the representatives of the RNC and Bush campaigns out repeating this all day long, I will be terribly disappointed.
Judges
I cheered this article at National Review today. I have been arguing for a while, sometimes here and sometimes with the television set, that the issue of judges should be huge in this election. Not only should the Miguel Estrada story be told to the nation, as Kathryn Jean Lopez argues, but also the issue of the Judiciary Committee memos which showed Democrats were being manipulated by interest groups and were attempting to use the judicial confirmation process for political gain. This issue is important for the Presidential election -- John Edwards had a hand in disgraceful treatment of Judge Pickering, who has been shown on 60 Minutes, of all places, not to be the racist Edwards painted him as. But even more so than in the presidential race, this issue is of utmost importance for the Senate races. It is not too late to see some Republican Senate candidates make the case that Democrats can no longer be trusted to behave honorably on the Judiciary Committee. Some of the stories are a little involved, but they can still be explained well enough in a 60 second ad to get the point across. The public deserves to have this issue presented to them before they make their choices in November.
Bloggers Rule
Glenn Reynolds has a great piece at the Wall Street Journal about how the bloggers are changing the face of the election and why. A hint -- it isn't because the mainstream media is doing a great job.
Will Kerry Apologize Today?
A little over a week ago, I raised the possibility that John Kerry was working his way up to an apology for some of the things he said in his post-Vietnam War testimony. The Swift Boat Vets for Truth have now issued a challenge that Kerry give such an apology before the American Legion today. If he does, they say they will stop the ads. I predict that he will make a very carefully worded, halfway apology, similar to the one he made on Meet the Press earlier this year.
Quote of the Day
"We will not quickly join those who march on Veterans' Day waving small flags, calling to memory those thousands who died for the 'greater glory of the United States.' We will not accept the rhetoric. We will not readily join the American Legion and the Veterans of Foreign Wars." -- John Kerry, in a 1971 book. Of course, Kerry will feel no need to repeat that quote when he addresses the American Legion today.
Wictory Wednesday
How are you going to feel if you wake up on November 3 to the prospect of a John Kerry presidency? For four years, a medal-throwing anti-war protester would be president. He'd go crawling to Jacques Chirac and Gerhard Schroeder. He'd withdraw our troops from Iraq (he's said within six months) and give terrorists all over the world new hope that the America of today is the America that lost the Vietnam war. You can do something to stop this from happening! Volunteer or donate to the Bush campaign today. Today is Wictory Wednesday. Every Wednesday, I ask my readers to volunteer and/or donate to the Bush 2004 campaign. If you've already donated and volunteered for the Bush campaign, then talk to your friends and enlist them in this battle for America's very soul. If you're a blogger, you can join Wictory Wednesdays simply by putting up a post like this one every Wednesday, asking your readers to volunteer and/or donate to the Bush campaign. And do e-mail me at wictory@blogsforbush.com so that I can add you to the Wictory Wednesday blogroll, which will be part of the Wictory Wednesday post on all participating blogs:
"Real" Democrats
On Today this morning, Tim Russert and Matt Lauer attempted to blunt the sting of Zell Miller's speech tonight by questioning whether he is really a Democrat. It's funny (but not in a ha-ha way) how anytime John McCain disagrees with George Bush, his Republican status gives him more credibility with the fawning media. Russert and Lauer neglected to point out that conservative Zell Miller is not the only Democrat in New York supporting President Bush. At least two high profile liberal Democrats, Ron Silver and Ed Koch, have also spoken eloquently at the convention in support of Bush. I am sure it was just an oversight for Russert and Lauer.
Some Non-Convention Blogging
Athena, of Terrorism Unveiled, made it to Jordan and is already blogging. She has interesting posts up about the airline security and about her orientation session. Check it out. Tuesday, August 31, 2004
The Republican National Convention
Several hours ago now, I pointed out that Michael Steele is a rising star. I believe we have a man who can take the Senate seat now held by Paul Sarbanes when it likely opens in two years. Speaking of Senate seats, Mel Martinez won an easy victory tonight, and the media doesn't like it. I have never seen an article this biased, and remember, I'm close to the liberal bastion of Philadelphia. Mel Martinez needs to talk to Dick Cheney and get some pointers, if you know what I mean, before calling the Miami Herald. Martinez will be favored to win, an immigrant who embodies the spirit of America. And now that we're on the topic of immigrants, let me say that for me, this is a personal issue too. I am a second-generation American whose grandparents nearly died in a genocide and great-grandparents did. For me, America is, and will remain, one nation, united by liberty, dedicated to freedom. Arnold Schwarzenegger embodied this spirit. Last night I said that it would be hard to surpass last night's speakers, but he did it. He made everyone watching proud to be a Republican. And invoking Richard Nixon's name? I turned to the person watching the convention with me and started laughing. I knew, and others have since confirmed this, that Richard Nixon has not been mentioned at a Republican Convention, in depth and in a positive light, since 1972. Thank you Arnold...Richard Nixon gave America many gifts, but if he made you a Republican, then it was the greatest gift of all. And I really didn't think he'd do it, but he did. "Economic Girlie-Men!" (I'm glad I was so persuasive for Martinez...maybe I should start pushing a constitutional amendment to make the Governor eligible to run for President...) On numerous Republican forums, the Bush girls are receiving a storm of criticism and rebuke for their speech. Okay, I'm going to tell you a little about myself. I'm roughly the same age as the Bush girls. I know what my generation is like. I know their strengths, and I know their weaknesses. Tonight, the girls embodied both. Laura Bush was, as expected, excellent. She gave a powerful, persuasive speech which demonstrates again why she is so popular. The first lady will be a powerful asset in the fall, and although she has no competition on the other side since her "opponent" has been muzzled, her effectiveness in moderate suburban areas cannot be overstated.
Read This
Judging by the e-mail reactions, recent, and not-so-recent, immigrants will appreciate my post below on Arnold's speech.
Lovely Laura
What a lovely speech. The speech hit briefly on many major themes before settling in on the fight against terrorism. Especially moving to me was the firsthand account of her observations of the struggle President Bush went through making the decision to invade Iraq and the comparison of her father's experience liberating concentration camps in World War II. UPDATE: What a jerk Tom Brokaw is. Following Laura's speech, he felt compelled to let the viewers know that things are not going well in the world, as the speakers would have you believe. He said several other infuriating things, but I will have to find a transcript to know what they were because each thing he said just made me forget the one before it, and he only spoke for a few minutes. The old media has sealed their own doom. Why would anyone sit through the partisanship from supposed "journalists" when there are now alternatives? UPDATE: Crush Kerry has a great review of Tuesday night's speeches.
Liberal Polling Dissonance: Florida GOP Primary Race
The Contest: GOP primary for the opportunity to run for the U.S. Senate seat, in Florida, being vacated by the retiring Bob Graham. The Contestants: Former HUD official Mel Martinez and former Congressman Bill McCollum. The Poll Date: August 27, 2004 Source: Resarch 2000/Florida Times-Union/South Florida Sun-Sentinel Poll: McCollum leads Martinez, 35-31. The race is deemed a "statistical dead heat." The Actual Result Date: August 31, 2004 Source: Voters Result: Martinez beats McCollum . . . by 14 percentage points. Hmm. They swung and missed the way a rookie just up from the minors typically fared against Nolan Ryan or Roger Clemens. Now, to be fair, Florida' s liberal media did note, as did Mason-Dixon (which had the race pegged at 33-27 for Martinez, with 18 percent undecided), that Martinez had momentum on his side. So, one possibility is that vast swaths of Florida GOP voters came into the Martinez camp in the past few days and weeks. On the other hand, perhaps the liberal media tried to shape public opinion with slanted polls (hint: as previously stated on this blog, Martinez, by far, is the better general election candidate for the GOP, and obviously will help George Bush tremendously), but when it became obvious that their attempt to knock Martinez out of the race would not succeed, they had no choice but to adjust their "poll," to reflect the reality on the ground. After all, it is a touch embarrassing, is it not, when a polling agency misses the results of a GOP primary by, oh, say, 23 percentage points? We report, you decide.
Ahnuld
I'm listening to Arnold Schwarzenegger speak and it's so very personal for me. Like Arnold, I'm a legal immigrant. Like Arnold, I dreamed of leaving my socialist homeland behind for the Land of the Free. Like Arnold, my political awakening came because of a televised presidential debate - his because of Humphrey-Nixon, mine because of Gore-Bush. I've waited in endless lines in a socialist country for mundane services - electricity, telephones. No more! I'm a conservative Republican because of the same reasons Arnold is - because conservative Republicans believe in rewarding work and enterpreneurship. Because conservative Republicans want to combat socialism in every form. And that's more important to me than anything else.
The Arnold Show
I just got home in time for the show. I didn't miss Liddy Dole did I? Okay, speak up in the comments section -- how many think Arnold will say "girly men" tonight? I think he will, but wouldn't put money on it. UPDATE: Now I do want to put money on it. (I just saw a reporter say the phrase will be in his speech.) 15 minutes into the speech: I didn't think anyone could match Rudy's performance last night, but Arnold is doing it. Nothing in Boston came anywhere close to last night or tonight's speeches. I'll bet there will be a lot of young people registering as Republicans tomorrow. The way the crowd reacted to Rudy and now to Arnold, I can't imagine Bush being able to get through his speech Thursday night for all the cheering. UPDATE: Since there was no televised Nixon-Humphrey debate, and it appears that Arnold has told this story many times before and that has been pointed out before, I wonder if he was speaking about a formal, single debate or rather the general debate taking place in the course of the campaign. I feel sure this will all be sorted out by tomorrow morning. The Hillary "truth squad" is probably on it at this very moment. UPDATE ON DEBATE REFERENCE: Although many pundits on t.v. tonight have referred to Arnold's reference to the Nixon-Humphrey debate (which did not take place), the actual transcript of the speech refers to the Nixon - Humphrey "race". UPDATE: Crush Kerry has a great review of Tuesday night's speeches. I can't wait to see the first CA state poll taken after Arnold's speech. I've always hoped Bush had a chance there -- maybe he actually does.
Thank you FLORIDA, and thank you MARYLAND!
Thank you all Floridian readers...you have chosen the right man for the Senate. I will discuss this more later, but take a look at the turnout...Democrats are really energized. (italics means sarcasm) And Maryland, you have a real star, not a media star. Michael Steele is bound for greatness. His speech could have been the keynote - it was that good.
Letter
The Swiftees are sending an open letter to John Kerry. Reporters have a duty to ask Kerry about at least points 2, 3 and 4. If Kerry emerges from hiding, that is. He last answered questions from a real reporter on August 1.
Moore AWOL
Looks like Michael Moore is going to be "AWOL" from the convention. He's "deserting" his post because of all the boos he got last night. UPDATE: For those who missed it, the Daily Recycler has video of the Moore-booing.
Franks Endorsement
I hear General Tommy Franks has endorsed President Bush and will make a speech at the convention on Thursday night. UPDATE: The invaluable Power Line bloggers are at the convention and have a video of Franks endorsing Bush.
The Shakeup
The panicked Kerry campaign has begun its big shakeup (Kerry has a disturbing tendency to throw staff overboard at the first sign of trouble.) Read the official press release and see if you can read between the lines.
Freedom of Speech, and the Right to Embarrass
Ahhhh, protesters. The sweet sound of raucous malcontents, determined, however unintentionally, to re-elect George W. Bush! Why am I so happy to see a bunch of unwashed hooligans, so reminiscent of a soccer gang or the French Legislative Assembly? Because the crowds of protesters in New York City this week, are doing exactly what John Kerry and John Edwards hoped to avoid. They are reminding the nation about the clear choice at hand. Kerry, Edwards, Moore, and the leftovers from the Hippie Movement would have you believe that the war in Iraq is a mistake at best, and protest against that war is nothing more than reasonable people reacting to unreasonable policy. Unfortunately for them, the protest groups have no intention of playing by the Democrats’ script. Protesters in New York this week remind us of the ones who tried to block military bases, and who planned and carried out confrontations with authorities. Many antiwar protesters are bankrolled by Socialist and Communist groups, whose goal is to disrupt legitimate U.S. actions. Some here in New York are silly, and no threat, but some are violent and dangerous mobs. Many have violent histories, and are essentially violent criminals when they assemble. And the worst of them all seem to be Leftist. Also, protesters in New York this week, are largely free to speak their mind, which reminds us of how the Democrats penned in their protesters. Who, then, really stands for Free Speech here? President Bush withstood being compared to Hitler without whining. But John Kerry wants to ban the book that is embarrassing him, since the book forced Kerry to retract his “Christmas in Cambodia” story, and admit his first Purple Heart had nothing to do with combat, and almost nothing to do with a true injury. Kerry's embarrassment, in fact, comes from the free speech of honorable men, showing that the centerpiece of Kerry’s claim to courage is nothing but fraud. And all these protesters, free to express themselves as they truly are, reinforce the difference between the Right and the Left, as clearly as the difference between Right and Wrong. Every protest against George W. Bush, in delicious irony, works for his re-election.
Schedule
Here's the RNC schedule for today. Ahnold is on today. And Laura Bush should make a very interesting contrast to Teresa Heinz's weird performance. Remember how she showed off all the languages she knew? Ughh.
Symbolism
On the Rush Limbaugh program, President Bush announced he will address the convention tonight from Gettysburg, Pennsylvania, scene of the most critical battle of the Civil War and one of two sublime speeches by Abraham Lincoln. President Eisenhower, probably the greatest soldier to occupy the White House, retired here. It is also not far from where a plane crashed on September 11, 2001. It is a beautiful place, with rolling farm fields and an excellent view of the mountains in the distance. Unfortunately President will address the convention after twilight, so an outside performance is impossible, but the symbolism remains.
At Least A Few On The Left Still Have A Sense Of Humor
Betsy's Page reports something she heard on Laura Ingraham's show that gives me comfort that at least a few on the left still have a sense of humor.
What else should we expect?
The Democratic Presidential candidate's campaign is stalled and capsizing, and John Kerry just proved why he is sinking. Who does he blame for his campaign's failures? Everyone but himself, of course. John Kerry, it seems, cannot do anything wrong... According to Al Hunt, Kerry is "bouncing off the walls" because the campaign is "often frozen -- or at least tempered -- by too many chefs, a too-heavy reliance on polls or focus groups and an aversion to risks. As a result, the message often is muddled and the reaction to hard-hitting attacks from Republicans often is slow and unconvincing." So they are thinking of bringing John Sasso back on board...he was one of the numerous geniuses of the Dukakis campaign. Who's next? Susan Estrich? Another person thought to be a likely pick for the Kerry campaign is Joe Lockhart. Yeah, that should bring back warm memories for swing voters. However, do not be concerned. It doesn't matter who is on the staff. Kerry is the candidate, and the success or failure of his campaign ultimately depends on him. This egotist doesn't learn.
Could Kerry Even Hold The Current Coalition?
Several weeks ago, I posted an excerpt from a Fox News Sunday interview with John Kerry that was alarming to me. In it, when Kerry was asked about how he would build a bigger coalition of nations in Iraq, he talked about the "cards" that had not yet been played by President Bush. I opined about what these "cards" might be -- just how much would Kerry be willing to give up to gain the cooperation of, say, France? It has always seemed to me that when John Kerry belittles the current coalition, he also belittles the contributions of our current allies in Iraq. Today, Rush Limbaugh said he wonders if Kerry could even hold together the current coalition, in light of all the derogatory things he has said about their contributions and how dismissive he has been of them. Maybe Kerry is thinking that if he deals them enough of those "cards", they will forgive him.
Franks on Hannity
Polipundit's post about Bush on Rush today reminded me that several times yesterday Sean Hannity plugged a special announcement by Tommy Franks to air live on his show today. I predicted a while back that Franks would wait until his book tour was over to come out and endorse President Bush. Could that be the announcement?
The "Regular Guy" Factor
Watching Guiliani's speech last night reminded me of this story from Tom Von Essen's book, which was posted at Nascar Dads several months ago, about Bush's ride in an SUV to Ground Zero with Pataki, Giuliani, Bernard Kerik and Von Essen just days after the 9/11 attacks. It is a little raw, but really does convey how comfortable Bush makes those around him feel. I especially like the part about Pataki being horrified and Rudy rolling his eyes. It is just so easy to picture that scene in my mind.
New State by State Polling Data
The mainstream media is freaking out...while Rollcall says that Mel Martinez is likely to win, other left-wing Florida newspapers are going crazy in their new-found love for McCollum. Again, if you are a Floridian, go to the polls, take your friends, and vote for Martinez! Strategic Vision has released four state polls - Georgia, Florida, Wisconsin, and Ohio. In Georgia, as you might guess, the President leads 55%-36%. His approval rating is close to 60%. If the President can carry the entire South by this margin, then it's nearly guaranteed that the Senate races will be a disaster for the Democrats. In Wisconsin, President Bush leads 48%-46%. His approval rating has climbed to 49% and his disapproval fallen to 31%. His approval ratings on the war and the economy have also gone up since the last poll. Kerry's image has taken a beating, and the Massachusetts liberal is about as popular as he is unpopular. Wisconsin voters believe the Swiftboat ads are credible by a ten-point margin. In Ohio, President Bush has expanded his lead, now ahead by six points, 48%-42%. His approval rating is at 50%, and he has fairly good ratings on the economy and Iraq. Kerry's image has taken a pounding in the Buckeye State. In Florida, President Bush leads 48%-44%. His job approval rating has climbed to 52%. Florida voters are increasing optimistic about the future of the economy and Iraq. John Kery only has a 42% favorable rating, 40% unfavorable rating. Of course we will hear the media say over and over again that President Bush is still tied with his challenger. However has any challenger in so pathetic a position gone on to win the fall? Voters seem to want to re-elect the President. They do not like his opponent but want to be convinced the President has a vision for a second term. This is why the speeches last night and those to come are so important. More on this later... UPDATE: President Bush leads in Texas 57%-33%. This is extremely good news because of its potential for the popular vote totals.
Democrat Panic
Alert Reader Gary pointed out this telling passage from today's must-read Note: What Democrats really fear now: that they might only be able to win the White House when an anomaly occurs (Watergate or the once-in-a-lifetime political skills of Bill Clinton).
Good Reviews
Andrew Sullivan is back from vacation and doing some great writing. I have been critical that he seems to have let gay marriage trump all other issues of late, but his reviews of the McCain and Guiliani speeches are definitely worth reading. Giuliani was on fire. He spoke so easily, so amusingly, and so emotionally that for long passages, you forgot he was giving a speech and felt he was talking with you. His iconic status is oddly a problem for him, because it has tended to obscure his street-smart, clear-eyed chattiness - the kind of thing a New York mayor can use from time to time. But it was on display last night to great effect. Again, Giuliani spoke to Bush's emotional intelligence after 9/11, his genuine attempt to do what he believed was best for the country at a time of terror, and to Bush's personable nature. You just cannot imagine a story in which a huge, ham-handed construction worker would ever give John Kerry a big, warm bear-hug. Or that John Kerry would answer a long disquisition from a man in a hard-hat and feel satisfied to respond with two simple words: "I agree." Again, Giuliani reminded us of why we tend to like George W. Bush. (Personally, I'd rather have pins stuck in my eyes than endure a conversation with John Kerry, but I'd love to hang with Bush.) All of this matters. A president in wartime needs to be able to connect with people. Bush can. Kerry can't.
Instant Replay
For those who missed the convention speeches, particularly those of Ron Silver, Rudy, and the three woman tribute to the heroes of 9/11, C-Span has the video available online here. Please watch them. C-Span is also currently posting on their homepage the link to yesterday's Washington Journal episode with Hugh Hewitt. It is worth watching to hear him explain how the "New Media" is combating the misrepresentations and ommissions of the Old Media. UPDATE: Jay Nordlinger really loved the Ron Silver speech as well. He also pointed out something that I didn't -- how articulate Silver was in the post-speech interviews he gave. He really is a thoughtful and intelligent guy.
Swiftees and the Media
"This has been just a brutal two weeks for him. He had people telling him the Swift Boat ads weren't going to take because the media was going to ignore them." -- a Kerry adviser, explaining Kerry's missteps in August. The Kerry people can't be blamed for their assumption. The old media certainly did their very best to ignore the Swiftees.
Second Terms
Presidential second terms aren't much fun: Bill Clinton was impeached in his second term. Richard Nixon would have been if he hadn't quit first. Ronald Reagan was wounded by the Iran-Contra scandal. Lyndon B. Johnson sank into the swamp of Vietnam.
Co-ordination
Mickey Kaus makes a great point: If President Bush were to tell the Swift Boat Veterans, "Those are great ads. Please run more of them," he'd immediately be accused by the Kerry campaign (and maybe the Federal Elections Commission) of illegal "coordination" with an allegedly independent political group. ... Now suppose Bush did what Kerry and David Broder want him to do and told the Swifties "Those are terrible ads. I call on you to stop running them." Why isn't that also illegal coordination? Coordination involves telling someone when to start and also when to stop, no?
New Ad
Swiftee ad #4 focuses on Kerry's medal/ribbon-toss. The ad will air in Nashville when Kerry addresses the America legion on Wednesday. UPDATE: Remember Slate's hilarious PowerPoint take on Kerry's medal-tossing? Click through the slide show.
My Reaction to Tonight's Speeches
I did not get to watch Mayor Bloomberg's speech, so I cannot comment on its content. However I did get to see both Senator McCain and Mayor Giuliani. As a political historian who has read numerous convention speeches, let me say that both of these will remain in my mind for a long time to come. Senator McCain gave probably the best speech of his life. His connection to Franklin D. Roosevelt was appropriate, reminding us that the highest honor we can pay to a passing generation is to fight for the ideals which they upheld on the beaches of Normandy and the shores of Okinawa. And who will forget McCain's emotional call to arms at the end? His presence and story give the words an even deeper meaning... "We are Americans first, Americans last, Americans always. Let us argue our differences. But remember we are not enemies, but comrades in a war against a real enemy, and take courage from the knowledge that our military superiority is matched only by the superiority of our ideals, and our unconquerable love for them. Our adversaries are weaker than us in arms and men, but weaker still in causes. They fight to express a hatred for all that is good in humanity. We fight for love of freedom and justice, a love that is invincible. Keep that faith. Keep your courage. Stick together. Stay strong. Do not yield. Do not flinch. Stand up. Stand up with our President and fight. We're Americans. We're Americans, and we'll never surrender. They will." Then there was the former Mayor of New York City, Rudolph Giuliani. He evoked that same sense of emptiness and sadness that I so deeply felt, and I'm sure you did on September 11, 2001. His speech was distinguished in many ways. First was its humor, not only in his superb attack on the Kerry record, but it was filled with numerous funny stories that made his presentation even more human, perhaps even passionate. He also reached back into history, reminding us that the Republican Party has always stood for the advancement of freedom, at home and abroad. Giuliani laid out in detail the nature of the War on Terror and why we must not only fight but win it. His story about the construction worker who embraced President Bush is a classic. By the end of the speech, I felt certain of two things - that Mayor Giuliani will be addressing future Republican Conventions and that his speech tonight laid the groundwork for the President's acceptance speech on Thursday. Tomorrow night will feature Governor Schwarzenegger and Laura Bush. The bar has been raised awfully high, but I am sure each will reach and surpass it in his or her own way. I leave you with the words of Mayor Giuliani... The war on terrorism will not be won in a single battle. There will be no dramatic surrender. There will be no crumbling of a massive wall. But we will know it. We'll know it as accountable governments continue to develop in countries like Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iraq. We'll know it as terrorist attacks throughout the world decrease and then end. And then, God willing, we'll all be able on a future anniversary of September 11th to say to our fallen brothers and sisters, to our heroes of the worst attack in our history and to our heroes who have sacrificed their lives in the war on terror. We will say to them we have done all that we could with our lives that were spared to make your sacrifices build a world of real peace and true freedom. We will make certain in the words of President Bush that they have heard from us. That they have heard from us a message of peace through free, accountable, lawful and decent governments giving people hope for a future for themselves and their children. God bless each one we have lost, here and abroad, and their families. God bless all those defending our freedom. God bless America."
Wah, Wah, Wah
I don't normally like to resort to name calling, but Ron Reagan is a crybaby weenie. He is whining about how Rudy was so mean to Kerry, and how at the Democrat convention there was a "no Bush bashing" rule, and they stuck to it. He thinks it isn't fair that Kerry was criticized by name. When Ron Silver embarrassed him by immediately quoting the "misled into war" and other attacks from the Democrat convention, Reagan's defense was that they didn't call Bush by name. Hey, Ron, the reason they had a ban on Bush bashing is because they had done nothing but that for 18 months and it was starting to backfire. Remember the AWOL deserter charges by the head of the DNC and the candidate himself? Remember the "Coalition of the Wild-eyed" ad? I could go on to list some more of the childish things Reagan went on to say, but why bother? He is doing the same thing he did at the Democrat convention -- attacking Republicans at every opportunity with such thinly veiled anger and hatred that it is uncomfortable to watch. Joe Scarborough had to step in a couple of times just to keep the guy from embarrassing himself too badly. MSNBC should at least identify Reagan as a Democrat spokesman, rather than a journalist. What a joke. UPDATE: Okay, I am a glutton for punishment. I am still watching Ron Reagan because I cannot believe his weird behavior. He is on a mission to convince everyone he talks to tonight that Bush decided to abort all efforts to capture Bin Laden so that he could go into Iraq. He is actually giving a lecture disguised as a question to a woman in the crowd that he is supposed to be interviewing, about how Bush 41 failed by not going into Iraq after Kuwait was liberated. Joe Scarborough had to rescue the poor woman who was beginning to look a little threatened. In the same night, he has also suggested that we are responsible for Saddam's actions because we supported him against Iran. He continually makes catty little remarks that are so nakedly partisan and childish that I find it hard to believe that MSNBC allows him to continue, but there he is -- still on the air. Monday, August 30, 2004
$87 Billion
Now that John Kerry's $87-billion flip-flop is such a staple of Republican rhetoric, I hope you'll recall that one of the first web sites to call attention to it was this site, PoliPundit.com, in a Quote of the Day.
Rudy
His speech is not even over and I am so upset that Rudy's speech was not run on the networks. What an incredible lesson in how the terrorists have gained such power. Rudy even castigated Europe for their accommodation, appeasement and compromise to the terrorists, and used the example of Arafat getting the Nobel Peace Prize to illustrate how wrong the international community's response to terrorism has been. Now Rudy is doing a great job ridiculing John Kerry's flip-flopping ways in good natured, but hilarious fashion. I hope the network morning shows run plenty of excerpts. This speech will be tough to beat.
I Had Forgotten
For all the talk I have done about the need to remember 9/11, I had forgotten what it felt like that day until three women reminded me tonight. I have read Debra Burlingame's moving story before, but tonight she, Deena Burnett and the wife of a New York firefighter whose son is now headed for Iraq, did not bring me to tears. They had me sobbing out loud. It is one thing to say that we remember what happened and are committed to "do something" (as Burnett said)to prevent it from happening again. It is quite another thing to put the viewer back in the state of mind the country was in immediately following 9/11. That is what the 9/11 tribute tonight did for me. It is a shame that the rest of the country, at least those watching the networks, were not able to experience that, too. We should never forget. UPDATE: The third woman who spoke was Tara Stackpole, the wife of Capt. Timothy Stackpole. I missed her name and did not find it listed at the RNC site. Thanks to a Polipundit reader, and to Mike Barnicle on MSNBC for supplying it. Mike Barnicle said he watched the speech on television in a NY bar and that patrons were standing in tears at the womens' speech.
McCain
I wouldn't vote for John McCain for dog catcher, given that he's the darling of the liberal press corps. But his neutralizing of Michael Moore by calling him a "disingenuous film-maker" brought even me to my feet!
Bravo Ron Silver
If you missed Ron Silver's speech just now (it wasn't covered on CNN or Fox News) watch the replay on MSNBC or C-Span. It was excellent. Please, Mr. Rove, let me see that speech excerpted in a Bush/Cheney ad. I was incredibly impressed by Ron Silver. I have a feeling the 9/11 Democrats are going to defeat John Kerry in a big way because they share George Bush's strong and serious approach to the war against terrorism and they understand that this issue trumps all others.
September 1
September 1 is when Viking Pundit predicts Kerry will disintegrate. He makes a powerful argument that I find hard to disagree with, but I do believe the debates will still be huge. Whether Kerry is far behind or far ahead or if things are still neck and neck, the debates do pose the opportunity for movement. I think the President will look great in the debates, especially in comparison to Kerry, and will perform much better than expected, as always. The debates will, at least, keep hope alive for whichever candidate is trailing at the time. Read the entire Viking Pundit post to find out why he thinks September 1 is the day.
Live From New York...
I loved the Saturday Night Live opening clip. So far, so good. 8:45 Update: The Bush girls look great -- no tongues sticking out or anything controversial. They just look really grown up and lovely. When the Cheneys entered the covention hall I thought the choice of music was odd -- "You're All I Need To Get By." Am I missing something there? 9:00 Update: Ron Silver's speech was really moving, but was not covered by Fox or CNN. Please tune in to watch the replay on MSNBC or C-Span if you missed it. I would love to see Silver and Koch in an ad for Bush/Cheney. What an excellent and powerful speech!!
Fancy Confetti
On at least one of the reports I saw on the cable channels last night, remarks were made about how much better the Republicans are than the Democrats at balloon and confetti drops. Considering the balloon fiasco in Boston last month, that is a pretty safe statement to make. The thing that impressed me most, though, was the confetti bearing photos of President and Mrs. Bush, and the Vice President and Mrs. Cheney. If any of the convention bloggers in New York are reading this, I would really love to have a handful of that confetti. (Hint, hint.) If none of my fellow bloggers comes through, maybe I can find some for sale on eBay.
Buzzword: Moderate
If I got a nickel for every time the word "moderate" was uttered this week, I could probably retire. I don't recall hearing about the moderate Democrats on display at their convention, because they were all assumed to be moderate. Even Ted Kennedy was not described as ultra liberal, nor was Al Sharpton described by the old media as extreme. The Democrat delegates overwhelmingly opposed the Iraq War and favored a U.S. withdrawal. Although this view has never been that of the majority, they were not proclaimed extreme leftists by the media. Yet, any Republican that is pro-choice, and McCain who is pro-life, but agrees with Democrats on many issues, is declared a moderate who really doesn't represent the party as a whole. If I could stand to watch all the network coverage of the convention, I might try to count how many times the word "moderate" was used, but I can't. Thank goodness for Brent Bozell.
The Swifts and Strength
The Swift Vets are not connected to President Bush. I don't care how many diagrams the Old York Times comes up with; no politician would take such a risky gamble so close to election day. That's why Bush is distancing himself from the Swift Vets, even threatening to sue them. That said, could a perception that the Swiftees are connected to Bush help Bush? Conventional wisdom is that harshly negative attacks backfire. However, these aren't ordinary times. The image of a ruthless Bush plunging the dagger into Kerry's back may help convey that Bush is a tough operator, who will deal equally ruthlessly with America's enemies. Meanwhile, Kerry's complaints make him look like a whiny, weak, hippy-dippy liberal. Not the sort of man you want to trust your safety to. The image will be reinforced by the manly Rudy-McCain-Arnold-Cheney-Bush tableau at the RNC, which trumps the combined effect of Kerry's medals. Am I on to something here? Click Comments and let me know. UPDATE: A new Washington Post/ABC News poll shows Bush-Kerry tied at 48 percent. The poll finds some support for my tough-guy hypothesis: A solid majority of voters said they believed Kerry deserved the medals he won in Vietnam and most voters see the issue of Vietnam as irrelevant to their choice in November. But in the past month, Kerry's personal image has deteriorated, with almost as many voters viewing him unfavorably as favorably.
Republican Convention
While doing my work, I'm listening to audio of the GOP convention. Maybe it's just the setting, but these Republicans sound like they are really optimistic and enjoying themselves...We do not hear the subdued anger we heard several weeks ago. Instead we hear a party united and looking to the future with confidence. President Bush connects with every segment of this party in a manner few Republican leaders have.
The Mood
Hugh Hewitt was at a bigwig convention party and reports the Republican mood: Last night, at David Dreier's party, all of the delegates, journalists, guests and who-knows-who-else assembled, were in the sort of high spirits that one expects when momentum is on your side. (On the Sunday night of the DNC, John Kerry had bounced a ball into home plate at Fenway, and the small talk was of Kerry's abysmal campaigning style).
Sabato's Take
Several of you may know Larry Sabato from television appearances or quotes in newspaper articles. While he may suffer from the typical problem which afflicts most political science professors, he nevertheless has a good take on elections, surpassed only by my favorite commentator and personal hero, Michael Barone. In his latest column, Sabato opines that the odds favor George W. Bush getting a bigger bounce from his convention than his opponent received from his Boston gathering. I tend to agree. If the election were held today, President Bush would be ahead by three points. At the end of the week, I could see him leading by five to ten points.
Coverage
Apropos Lorie's post below on shaping perceptions, the invaluable Media Research Center documents how biased the liberal media's coverage of past conventions has been.
Arrogant and Condescending
There's an online video of the Kerry daughters getting booed at the MTV VMA. They appear even more arrogant and condescending than their father.
Shaping Perceptions
Since we all know who the Republican nominees for President and Vice President are, in many ways the convention really is a big infomercial for the party and for the President. While Bush's speech will be real news, as long as he articulates his vision for the next four years (rather than saluting, "reporting for duty" and waxing nostalgic over his Texas Air National Guard days), most of the convention will be about creating an image the GOP hopes voters will find attractive. The image perception game is not, however, limited to the GOP. The Democrats and the media will be spinning images of their own. Here are some things I expect to see this week. The Republicans -- The GOP will be selling the President as the man most qualified to prosecute the war on terror, keep the economy growing, make the tax cuts permanent and even create an ownership society through Social Security and other initiatives. They will also be trying to convince America that they are a diverse "big tent" party. I have already heard the claim that the GOP delegates this year are the most diverse group ever. I wish the GOP would resist the politically correct color, gender and sexual orientation counting engaged in by their opponents and stress their true diversity -- that of thought. Everyone knows how many black Republicans there are, for instance, and unfortunately, it ain't many. However, there really is a diversity of thought in the Republican party about issues such as abortion, government spending, gay rights, and many other issues. For those who insist on counting, compare the number of pro-choice Republicans speaking at the GOP convention to those of pro-life Democrats speaking at the DNC in Boston. The Democrats -- The Democrats will be spinning the entire week that the Republicans are what they have said President Bush is, liars about who they really are and what they want to do. They will seek to portray Republicans as far right extremists who are trying to fool the public by putting forward their more moderate faces. I expect they will be accusing the GOP of being behind the Swiftie ads, although I would think they would want to take advantage of the GOP convention to change the subject, however, Susan Estrich already brought this up on Brit Hume's show last night. She said that if Bush wins it will be an "illegitimate victory" due to the Swift Boat Vet ads. I wonder, if Kerry wins, will she say it is an illegitimate victory due to the Hitler, AWOL, MoveOn ads and F9/11? (Okay, I don't really wonder.) Hillary Clinton, who has been assigned "truth squad" duty (it pained me just to type that), will be pointing out all the "lies" that the Republicans are telling this week. That alone, should make the convention "must see t.v." The Media -- My prediction is that much of the media coverage will come straight from their old play book, but there will be a few twists. Although very little has been said about abortion this election season, this will still be a theme for the media, as it is every four years. They will point out that all Republicans do not agree on abortion and that the GOP is trying to hide this fact by featuring so many pro-choice speakers. This year a relatively new issue will take center stage -- gay marriage. The platform position is much more restrictive on the topic of gay marriage, civil unions, and domestic partnership rights than many Republicans are. For some reason there wasn't much reporting of the fact that 90+ percent of delegates at the Democrats' convention disagreed with their platform position on the Iraq War, but I suspect that will not be the case with the media coverage of the abortion and gay marriage issues. In a nutshell, the media will portray the GOP as master spinners -- tightly scripting their program, trying to hide their true face from the public. This year a big focus of the coverage will be of the protests and the unprecedented security measures surrounding the convention. If the protestors who make the news are obnoxious, profane or naked (as they were last week), they will help President Bush enormously. If they are more subdued and there is no violence or other major disruption, they will probably get tons of coverage and could overshadow some of the convention message. As always, Republicans, Democrats and the media will engage all week long in the expectations game, talk of snapshot polls and in post-speech analysis. What I think will be important to note about the GOP convention compared to the Democrat convention is the substance of the speeches. I expect the speeches to be forward- looking, while still paying homage to the past (although no talk of Vietnam) and honoring those who lost their lives on 9/11 and in Afghanistan and Iraq. Due to the strength of the speakers, I predict that we will hear some incredibly good speeches. Enjoy the show.
That was Then
At the 1964 Republican national convention, conservatives took control of the party and finally nominated one of their own - Barry Goldwater - for the presidency. Goldwater lost in the biggest landslide ever, in part because the liberal media were unchallenged by cable news, talk radio, or the Internet. One of my favorite books, Rick Perlstein's Before the Storm, has this telling vignette from the 1964 Republican convention: At the Mark [hotel], the forty-five minute wait for one of the three tiny elevators (the campaigns used a service elevator accessed through the hotel kitchen) was now giving zealots two chances a day to menace Ah-aystarn lab'ral prasss mainstays like Chet Huntley and David Brinkley. "You know, these nighttime news shows sound to me like they're being broadcast from Moscow," muttered one to another on the way down, loud enough so the dastardly duo could listen in. "Why can't we find Americans to do the television news?" mumbled the other. The staff at the Hilton began issuing a bottle of aspirin with every press badge. Brinkley forbade his young son to show his NBC insignia except when absolutely necessary.Thankfully, conservatives have more productive outlets for their feelings these days.
1944
Fred Barnes says the model for this year's GOP convention is FDR's convention in 1944: Amazingly enough, the 2004 convention aims to achieve what the 1944 Democratic convention did. At the time, President Franklin Roosevelt was a commander in chief whose popularity had been worn down by nine years of economic downturn and three of world war. He was politically vulnerable. But he rallied the natural Democratic majority in the country with a convention speech vigorously defending his war record and presenting an attractive vision of a new term. He won going away, 54% to 46%.
Today Interview
If the excerpt of Matt Lauer's interview with President Bush which was shown on Meet the Press is any indication, the interview will help Bush immensely. More undecided voters will see an interview on the Today show than will ever watch any of the political chat shows or even the cable news channels. The excerpt I saw, in which Bush discusses both his military service and John Kerry's, struck just the right note. While I usually cannot stand to watch the Today show, I look forward to seeing the entire interview.
Kerry in Hiding
An alert reader notes that John Kerry's last serious press interview was on August 1. The first Swift Vets ad ran on August 4. Just how long can Kerry stay in hiding?
Kerry Daughters Booed
Polipundit readers sure are on the ball. A tip that this was posted at The Drudge Report came from reader, Bradley Hampton. MTV, ROLLING STONE and the rock and roll establishment -- past and present -- have cast their vote, and their man is John Kerry. So on Sunday night when John Kerry's daughters were announced to speak at the annual MTV VIDEO MUSIC AWARDS, the MTV youth were expected to welcome his daughter's as pop culture princesses. Instead, in an era of the unexpected, the daughters of the Democratic candidate were met with a resounding wall of boos at the filming in Miami. From the moment Alexandra and Vanessa started speaking, the boos outweighed anything close to cheers, and the reaction turned worse when the daughters asked the VIACOM youth to vote for their father. So shocked by the reaction, the taller of the two daughters tried to 'shhhhhh' her peers to no avail.
The Truth About The Bush Tax Cuts
One of our brilliant Polipundit readers (Midwest Kay) tipped me to Donald Luskin's incredibly persuasive article on the Detroit News editorial page, with accompanying charts, giving Bush the credit he deserves for his tax cuts and exposing one of the prevarications pushed by John Kerry: A report from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office has Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry claiming it proves that “Over the last four years, the burden of taxes has shifted from the wealthy to the middle class.”I think it is a good bet that we will be hearing some of these figures mentioned at the GOP convention this week. Sunday, August 29, 2004
Polling Data
Gallup has just released three state polls - Pennsylvania, Iowa, and Wisconsin. The President and his opponent are tied in the Keystone State 47%-47%. My guess is that President Bush will pull away here after his convention. If he can pull his number up to 53% in Pennsylvania, it would deal a harsh blow to the Kerry campaign because it would mean he would need to advertise both in the Philly and Pittsburgh markets. (Were Ralph Nader not on the ballot, President Bush would actually lead here, picking up 21 electoral votes.) President Bush leads in Wisconsin 48%-45%. This is the lastest in a string of polls showing him ahead in this critical battleground state. I strongly believe that as long as the President makes no mistake, Wisconsin will cast its 10 electoral votes for him on election day. Finally, Kerry leads in Iowa 51%-45%. Obviously the President needs to step up his efforts here and work closely with Charles Grassley to create an effective GOP GOTV to combat the Harkin slime machine. Two polls, one in Florida and the other in Ohio, show the two candidates tied in both states with 46% of the vote each. In Florida, the President has a 56% approval rating. Why the state is still close is a mystery, and in Ohio, Bush has a 51% approval rating. This is very good news. Finally, polls released by Rasmussen are available at his site. I believe it is increasingly obvious that the South, including Missouri and North Carolina, will vote in a block for the President. The question is whether President Bush can convince Florida to join the club, so to speak.
A Perspective on the Convention
The awesome power of incumbency The last President to stand for re-election during a war action on foreign soil was Richard Nixon. And, just like today, the opposition party nominated a liberal Senator who, following a tour of combat, became stridently anti-war. Nixon won 49 out of 50 states and 60 percent of the popular vote in that election. And, in some ways, that does not even do justice to the scope of his victory. As of 1972, there were three states in the Union in which electoral success for a Republican Presidential nominee appeared verboten: Arkansas, Georgia, and West Virginia. Arkansas voted against the GOP candidate in all six national elections that occurred between 1948 and 1968. In 1972, however, President Nixon took 68.8 percent of the state's popular vote. In both Georgia and West Virginia, Republican nominees only won a single election in the twenty-year period described above. Barry Goldwater took Georgia's electoral votes, in 1964, and Dwight D. Eisenhower took West Virginia, in 1956. Nixon, of course, lost both of those states in 1968. In 1972, however, Nixon not only won those states, he took them by overwhelming margins. He won 63.6 percent of the votes cast by West Virginians, and, in Georgia, he destroyed Senator McGovern, taking 75.2 percent of the ballots. Ladies and gentlemen, throughout our modern political history, when an incumbent President has sought re-election during a two or even one-year period of rapidly-falling unemployment, they not only have won re-election; they have won by overwhelming landslide margins. In that regard, the unemployment rate in July 2003 was 6.2 percent. Last month, however, unemployment had fallen all the way down to 5.5 percent. The decline of the Democratic Party The Democratic Party has been in steep decline for more than two decades. And the pace of their descent has accelerated in recent years. The Democrats have gone from ruling the U.S. House of Representatives (they had a 267-168 majority, as recently as 1991), to being a trivial minority party that often watches -- like pedestrians on street corners -- as arch-conservative measures sail through the lower chamber, often with 250 or even 300-plus votes in their favor. They've gone from having 56 seats in the U.S. Senate to only 48. They've gone from holding 30 governorships to only 22. The GOP, on the other hand, has gone from holding 18 state houses to holding 28 of them; including those of the four largest states by population. And, finally, the GOP has gone from controlling the bi-cameral legislatures of merely 5 states, to being in complete control over the legislative processes of 21 states. And the Democrats? Over the exact same period, they've gone from running 21 state legislatures to merely 17. The Democrats have fallen. And they're not getting up anytime soon. The shape of things to come George W. Bush already has changed the course of our political history. He has radically altered our foreign policy. He has reorganized the federal government, in terms of the all-important task of protecting our nation's homeland. He has taken down two of the most horrific terrorist governments in memory. And he has done all of these wonderful things, despite near-treasonous behavior on the part of the opposition party, and a national media that has degenerated into lunacy. President Bush's acceptance speech gives him the platform by which he not only can set the nation's course, for the next four years, but in which he can set the political framework for the next generation. He and his fellow Republicans and allied Democrats and Independents have the political opportunity of a lifetime: to shape the nation's direction from the precipice of total power. Will President Bush be up to this gradiose task and the awesome responsibilities inherent therein? We shall soon find out. (Note: 1972 election data available here; state legislative data here; the other historical points are easily accessible from the public domain or from common knowledge.)
Don't Miss Ron Silver
I really am looking forward to hearing Democrat actor Ron Silver speak at the GOP convention tomorrow night at 8:45 EDT, even though it won't be covered on the networks. I heard him on Hardball tonight and he is a great advocate for the President's approach to the War on Terror and the Iraq War -- four years ago, who'da thunk it? There are a lot more 9/11 Democrats out there than John Kerry would like.
I Just Don't Get It -- Thank Goodness
I know that there are sickos on both sides of the aisle, but I haven't seen nearly as many on my side as I have on the other lately. I just don't get stuff like this.
Less than one-tenth of one percent, huh?
So, about 100,000 people were out on the streets of New York City, today, "protesting" George Bush's Presidency. Hmm. Over 105 million people voted in the 2000 Presidential election. So, if the same number of people vote this year, and if every single one of the "protesters" actually manages to vote too (and if none of them mess up and accidentally cast their ballots for President Bush, instead of against him), that would mean these "protests" have attracted a grand total of: . . . . . . . . drum roll . . . . . . . . 0.095 percent of the electorate.
GOP Convention Pre-Look
On August 10, I published an analysis of how the Democrat’s nominee, John Kerry, fared from his convention, including a review of the relevant internal data. Now, it’s time to see how Bush fares in his convention. To be even-handed, I hope to comparing most of the same polls for internal data; Marist, Pew, Fox News, the LA Times, the CBS/New York Times, Quinnipiac, CNN/USA Today/Gallup, NPR, NBC News/Wall Street Journal, Democracy Corps, and the American Research Group, if at all available. The starting point for the overall look is, of course, the 3-way and head-to-head poll standings. Looking at the last week of polls, the 3-way position is Bush +1.6, and the 2-way is Bush +1.2 At this time, 85.0% of Democrats plan to vote for Kerry, 89.7% of Republicans plan to vote for Bush, a 4.7% advantage for Bush. 44.0% of Independents plan to vote for Kerry, 39.8% for Bush, a 4.2% advantage for Kerry. 6.3% of Republicans plan to vote for Kerry, while 10.3% of Democrats plan to vote for Bush, a 4.0% advantage for Bush. 43.0% of men plan to vote for Kerry, against 50.3% for Bush, a 7.3% advantage for Bush. 48.7% of women plan to vote for Kerry, against 43.0% for Bush, a 5.7% advantage for Kerry. Kerry has a 48.2% personality favorability rating, against 50.6% for Bush, a 2.4% advantage for Bush. It remains to be seen how the GOP Convention may affect these numbers.
Rasmussen Movement
Rasmussen now has Bush leading 48-45. The president is now leading by a small margin in virtually every poll. And that's before the GOP convention, when Rudy-McCain-Arnold-Cheney-Bush will project a very reassuring image.
Questions for Kerry
At some point, John Kerry will have to emerge from hiding and face reporters. Someone should ask him the following three questions: 1. Senator, your claim of spending Christmas in Cambodia has been discredited by various sources, including your campaign and your official biographer, Douglas Brinkley. Were you really in Cambodia on December 24, 1968? 2. Every eyewitness, your commanding officer, and the doctor who treated you, says that your first Purple Heart was obtained for a minor, self-inflicted injury without any enemy fire. Should you have gotten that medal? 3. Will you release your journals and military records so that we may move past all this? Saturday, August 28, 2004
The Best Humor Is Based In Fact
The best humor is based in fact, and that is why Michael Graham is so funny: Listening to John Kerry complain about the scrutiny his Vietnam record is getting is like Pamela Anderson complaining about the fact that guys keep staring at her breasts. What the hell did you expect?Link via New England Republican.
Bush Isn't The Issue
Ollie North has a message for John Kerry explaining how the current controversy is not between Kerry and Bush and their military service, but between Kerry and a heck of a lot of veterans that feel the same way Ollie does. He does a great job explaining what the real matter at issue is. Read the whole thing. (Link via RealClear Politics.)
Some Un-Conventional Convention Wisdom
Rich Lowry raises the intriguing prospect that President Bush might actually be able to reach out to those voters who think we need a new direction for the country. Since John Kerry is obsessed with 4 months from 30+ years ago, I tend to agree. Heck, if a man made famous for his anti-war testimony declaring his fellow "brothers-in-arms" war criminals, can run as a war hero who is currently whining about what some of those same men are now saying about his service, then why couldn't an incumbent President run as the candidate for change. It makes more sense than what we have seen from the Kerry Camp so far.
Okay...You have an assignment
I want all of our readers to look at this article in the New York Times. As you read it, think about the following questions: 1. Isn't George W. Bush out-of-touch with the problems of Americans? 2. Isn't George W. Bush nothing more than a glorified country bumpkin? 3. Isn't George W. Bush supposed to be an intellectual lightweight? My own opinion is that George W. Bush is the best Republican politician to reside in the White House since Abraham Lincoln, and that Karl Rove is the best Republican strategist since Mark Hanna. Just wait until George W. Bush, bless his heart, is a content 90-year-old former two-term President. I can see the mainstream media headines then: "George W. Bush...was he actually that intelligent?" P.S. I love the the way the media portrays Bush's predecessor as some political genius. When you get a chance, here's an extra credit assignment. Look at the position of the Democratic Party relative to the Republican Party in 1993 and then look at it in 2003.
Kerry Invested In 1970's Media Version of Public's Feelings About Vietnam War
Craig at Buffalog makes a great observation about the way the mainstream media (with no internet, talk radio or Fox News) in the 1970's controlled the impression that we have of the American public's feelings about the Vietnam War. He points out that Kerry believed the media's story about public opinion on the war and that may be where he went wrong.
My Thoughts
In a recent post, Polipundit referred to Douglas Brinkley as an “historian.” That made me, an historian by training, think about his role in the Swiftboat controversy. While Kerry is certainly not blameless in the matter, Brinkley must also bear some responsibility. He forgot that he was supposed to be writing a biography, not a hagiography. Brinkley let his own personal emotions blur his objective judgement as an historian - he was so taken by his subject, so bent on making him a larger-than-life hero that he failed to check his sources and engage in the factual, objective analysis that separates the skilled historian from the poor one. Brinkley would not be the first historian to make this mistake, but it should be interesting to hear if the media comes down as hard on him as it did on Stephen Ambrose. While Ambrose's offense was more serious, both committed historical "malpractice." On the polling front, Time has released a poll showing President Bush leading Kerry 46%-44%, with Nader taking 5%. While I am delighted that the President enjoys a two to three point lead in several recent polls, I hope his convention will focus on converting some of the soft Kerry support and swaying the undecideds to bring the President above 50% on the ballot test. The fact that Nader will not appear on several crucial state ballots is also of some concern to me. I am comforted by the notion that the ruthless Democratic efforts to kick him off the ballot should not endear many Nader supporters to the Kerry candidacy, but his absence on the ballot should make us exert ourselves even more. Rasmussen has released numerous state polls. It seems that the President has pulled away in Arkansas, and I believe the Kerry campaign will probably write it off as a loss. Of course the Democrats will claim that they will contest North Carolina, but they will write it off as well after the GOP convention. So it seems the President has formed the solid L going into his convention. While the President is doing quite well in Missouri, Ohio remains a close race, so expect the Buckeye State to remain in contention. More interesting is the California numbers, probably the most reliable given Rasmussen's formula. He has the President surging 9 points from his previous 18 point gap. He is now polling 42% in the Golden State. His job approval rating is 46%. While Ralph Nader is not on the ballot in California, I did notice that Kerry campaigned in San Francisco. Were I in the President's campaign, I would poll California a week or two after the convention. If the President is within five points, then he should contest it because Kerry would have to respond, and he can ill-afford it given his expenses in August on the Swiftboat ads. UPDATE: The President has a 51%-45% job approval rating in the CNN/Time Poll. This is outstanding, and sets him up to pull out of the convention with a six-point lead or better, if he plays his cards correctly. UPDATE: 57% of North Carolina veterans are voting for President Bush. 35% are voting for John Kerry. UPDATE: Twice as many Democrats are voting for Bush as Republicans are voting for Kerry in Florida.
Schacte's Testimony
There were three people (including John Kerry) on the boat when Kerry sustained the "rose thorn scratch" injury that won him his first Purple Heart. Here's what Admiral William Schacte, one of the three, and the only available eyewitness other than Kerry, has to say about the nature of that wound: Sometime during the early morning hours, I thought I detected some movement inland. At the time we were so close to land that we could hear water lapping on the shoreline. I fired a hand-held flare, and upon it bursting and illuminating the surrounding area, I thought I saw movement. I immediately opened fire with my M-60. It jammed after a brief burst. Lt. (jg) Kerry also opened fire with his M-16 on automatic, firing in the direction of my tracers. His weapon also jammed. As I was trying to clear my weapon, I heard the distinctive sound of the M-79 being fired and turned to see Lt. (jg) Kerry holding the M-79 from which he had just launched a round. We received no return fire of any kind nor were there any muzzle flashes from the beach. I directed the outboard motor operator to clear the area.Dr. Louis Letson, who treated Kerry, and Grant Hibbard, Kerry's commanding officer, agree with Schacte's account. Kerry got his undeserved Purple Heart three months later, when everyone who knew the real story had left Vietnam.
The Power of Incumbency Versus a Senator Nominee
Through the years the great State of New Mexico has been no safe haven for Democratic Presidential candidates. From 1968-1988, Republican candidates won six consecutive Presidential ballots. Clinton took the state, in 1992, but received less than 46 percent of the votes that were cast that year. But check this out: New Mexico - 1996 - Bill Clinton's Re-Election Bid Unemployment rate in August 1995 = 6.4 Unemployment rate in August 1996 = 7.1 Result: Clinton wins the state, 49-42 Rising unemployment. But despite that fact, and despite a 20-year prior record of voting for GOP candidates, the draft-dodging incumbent President beat the war hero and multi-term Senate Majority Leader. Not only that, but he outperformed his 1992 vote total by more than three full percentage points. Hmm. But, in this particular campaign cycle, the "mainstream media" keeps telling me that George Bush is in trouble because he's the incumbent and because "undecideds break for the challenger." They're also fired up about the fact that John Kerry -- a Junior Senator from the Northeast -- has a "chestful of medals." Okaaaay, then. Oh, by the way: Click on "Comments" if you want to see how New Mexico's job market has been doing over the past year. (Note: 1996 unemployment data here.)
Quote of the Day
Until now, John Kerry has refused to release the journals he kept in Vietnam, claiming that "historian" Douglas Brinkley has exclusive rights to them. But here's what Brinkley is saying about that: I don't mind if John Kerry shows anybody anything. If he wants to let anybody in, that's his business. Go bug John Kerry, and leave me alone.Release the journals, senator, and stop the "Republican-funded smear campaign."
Telling
ABC's ever-perceptive Note on Kerry's recent travails: The new joke in Washington -- told by all gallows, quasi-panicked Democrats -- goes like this:
Speaker Lineup
Here's the primetime speaker lineup for next week's GOP convention. Set your TiVo/VCR.
"Preparing To Win"
The blogger who goes by the name, Athena, of Terrorism Unveiled will be departing for the Middle East in two days. She plans to give her impressions of the area and write about experiences she hopes will help her to better understand the War on Terror, what must be done to spread freedom and democracy, and Middle Eastern perspectives. The following is an excerpt from an email Athena sent to fellow bloggers. I want to study in this part of the world in order to become more proficient in Arabic so I can eventually work to combat the threat ofI will be posting links to Athena's commentary from Jordan and Syria. While I am looking forward to what she will have to write, I am very concerned for her personal safety. That is a dangerous part of the world, especially for an American woman. (I really hope she packed dark hair dye and brown contacts.) I have become friends with Athena through our blogging and by email (we are both NC girls) and I met up with her at the Tommy Franks book signing a few weeks ago and spent more than 2 hours talking to her while waiting in line. She is a very smart and very brave young woman and I encourage all who read Polipundit to check out her site, Terrorism Unveiled, if you have not already. You can help support Athena by emailing her well wishes and also by donating to her Amazon honor system account. I am sure she would also appreciate as many prayers as she can get.
See It To Believe It
All I can say about this toy (link via Drudge Report) is that you have to see it to believe it, and it was bought here in the U.S.A. Friday, August 27, 2004
They've moved from stem cells to . . . . credit cards
Here's an unintentionally-hilarious account of a Kerry stump speech from earlier today, in Daly City, California (just below San Francisco). Three things immediately jumped into my mind after reading this: 1) How bad are his internal polls? I mean, when a struggling Democratic nominee does not focus on the traditional, hackneyed tools of class warfare (e.g., Social Security, welfare, poverty, health insurance, etc.) but, instead, goes after interest charges on credit cards, and other related fees, you know there's a serious problem. 2) If Kerry is leading George Bush by a wide margin in California -- as most of the "polls" claim -- why is he not only personally stumping in the state, but is attempting to rally the base in the hyper-liberal San Francisco Bay Area? 3) When Kerry's campaign team schedules him to speak at a high school, is that a Freudian slip, an attempt at glib humor, or do they not actually realize that they're engaging in self-parody?
Rhetorical Self-Delusion
To rephrase a certain President, ‘there they go again’. The Polls are showing a clear move towards Bush, even before the start of the GOP Convention in New York. The Swift Boat ads have clearly hurt Kerry, and there’s no sign they will be going away. And when one considers Kerry’s accomplishments, there does not appear to be a point of substance, which Kerry may use to redirect the debate for this campaign. What to do? As in the spring, Kerry falls back on rhetorical attack. And of course, knowing his personality seems to be even less energetic than Al “Robotman” Gore, John has decided to let his minions strike on his behalf, even as he decries the notion that Bush might do the same. The Washington Post released an editorial today, entitled “The ‘Dumb’ Factor”, written by Howell Raines, who used to be an executive editor at the New York Times (that reminds us of the MSM’s penchant for hypocrisy of their own; collaboration to claim that people on the Right are collaborating). Raines makes his position clear, even as he pretends to merely observe selected bumper stickers. The ones Raines observe, read "Somewhere in Texas, A Village Is Missing Its Idiot." And "Bush, Like a Rock Only Dumber." Raines does not observe any stickers mocking Kerry. Raines goes on to say that this somehow demonstrates the “fierce conviction of some voters -- and the secret fear of a quieter and perhaps larger group -- that George W. Bush is not smart enough to continue as president”. The possibility that the people who put such stickers on their car are merely insulting boors, and not representative of the public at large, or the reasonable observation that there are stickers out there which mock Kerry, and many more which simply present support for a candidate, is rejected out of hand. Raines goes on, then to suggest that the intelligence of candidates is “this touchiest of competency issues”. Yeah, sure it is. Raines never mentions that no voter brings up issues of intelligence, preferring such trivial matters as National Security or the Economy. But even then, Raines goes on to admit he doesn’t have much in the way of evidence, and his absence of historical interest by the voters in mental acuity goes unmentioned throughout, yet he say that “in the matter of John F. Kerry and George W. Bush, we damn sure ought to make an educated guess”. Raines represents the new paradigm of Democrat rhetoric. As we saw in the spring, unfounded allegations are nothing new to the Left, but the desire to throw out unsupported claims as fact has been recharged. Raines asks “Does anyone in America doubt that Kerry has a higher IQ than Bush? I'm sure the candidates' SATs and college transcripts would put Kerry far ahead.” Really? For some reason, that strikes me as a familiar and foolish tactic to try. Back in the 2000 campaign, there was the presumption in the press, that Vice President Al “Mr. Internet” Gore was the intellectual giant to George W. Bush’s mental midget. Yet, when the data was revealed, there were some surprises. A March 18, 2000 article in the Washington Post acknowledged “In his sophomore year at Harvard, Gore's grades were lower than any semester recorded on Bush's transcript from Yale.” When the site Nations Online compared the two candidates, they wrote this analysis: "Some supporters of Bush's chief opponent in that campaign, Al Gore, often portrayed Bush as intellectually inferior to Gore. Some have attempted to compare their current respective intellectual capacities by going decades back to their academic achievements. According to that criterion, Bush's academic record and background was by and large comparable to Gore's. For example, Bush's verbal SAT score was 566, Al Gore's was 625. In addition, Gore received lower grades in his sophomore year at Harvard University than any semester recorded on Bush's transcript from Yale, and Gore earned no degrees higher than a Bachelor of Arts in Government, while Bush earned a Master's degree in Business Administration from Harvard." UPI’s Steve Sailer also went on to investigate George W. Bush’s specific IQ: “Linda Gottfredson, co-director of the University of Delaware-Johns Hopkins Project for the Study of Intelligence and Society, told United Press International: "I recently converted Bush's SAT score to an IQ using the high school norms available for his age cohort. Educational Testing Service happened to have done a study of representative high school students within a year or so of when he took the test. I derived an IQ of 125, which is the 95th percentile." In other words, only one out of 20 people would score higher.” Consequently, Al Gore ought to have known better, than to believe the myths, but the 2000 Presidential Debates bear witness, that Gore never realized the trap he had laid for himself. And certainly, Raines ought to know better. Yet he goes on, in the same vein, claiming “whatever his IQ, George W. Bush as a candidate is a one-trick pony” The over-simplification of Bush’s positions and accomplishments, and the presumption that Bush has somehow accomplished his success through luck or his buddies, are clear indicators that the entire Left has lost touch with the reality of this campaign. Bush has made errors, but because the Left presumes he is a dolt, they refuse to allow him his successes, indeed dwelling on those very strong points, as if they could wish them away. “John Kerry is a flip-flopper and a phony: That's the spine of the White House message” sneers Raines, pretending that the claim is supported only by commercials, and ignoring that Kerry’s own statements on the issues are so contradictory and blatently posturing, that he cannot resolve any of the main contentions, but must return to them over and over, as questions rise from his own answers. Raines shows the worry inherent in the Left, by his attitude towards the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth, whom Raines falsely calls “a front financed by Karl Rove's wealthy Texas allies”. Raines calls more than two hundred combat veterans “worms”, because acknowledging that many of them are more honorable and believable than Kerry, would make Kerry the worm in comparison. And, like so many on the Left, Raines never addresses the contentions or the evidence in the ads; small wonder, since Kerry is on record as having personally burned villages, and the group he spoke for so famously, is now known to have included some profound frauds, and at one time conspired to murder members of Congress. No, Raines prefers leading questions, such as “was George W. dumb enough to be talked into adopting a flawed strategy for a phony war by Donald Rumsfeld and Dick Cheney?” Sheesh! It reminds me of the joke about the lawyer cross-examining a key witness by demanding, ‘have you stopped beating your wife, yes or no?!?’ In discussing Dubya’s intellect, Raines rejects Bush’s degrees from Ivy League schools and his success with the Texas Rangers and subsequent political prowess, preferring instead to rely on such objective analysts as Garry Trudeau. I tried to be fair, to compare John Kerry’s school accomplishments with George W. Bush, but John Kerry has not released any of his scholastic records, not his SAT scores or transcripts. I did find an old reference from the Institut Montana in Zug, Switzerland, where Kerry, as an 11-year-old, was “strong at U.S. and Swiss history but "allergic" to German”. Given Kerry’s release of all military records which praised him, and suppression of any which might be critical, I could be mean and claim this suggests that Kerry has not been nearly as brilliant as he would have us believe, but then, his campaign suggests that already. I will go so far, as to submit that if the Democrats in the main are as hackneyed in their appraisal of Bush as Raines is, then the Presidential Debates in October will be significant, but only to move President Bush far beyond the Pretender Kerry’s hopes of reaching him again. While no Republican may afford to relax or take the re-election for granted, Kerry’s continued refusal to face Reality, reflected in the mind and message of supporters like Raines, is evocative of lemmings, running past wolves, for the high cliffs. The remaining options for them appear tragic.
The Power of Incumbency vs. A Senator Nominee - Arizona
Through the years the great State of Arizona has been like a "Russian winter" for Democratic Presidential candidates. The state was only one of half-a-dozen to vote for native son Barry Goldwater, back in 1964. In fact, Republicans won 10 consecutive Presidential ballots in the state, from 1952 through 1992, inclusive. But check this out: Arizona - 1996 - Bill Clinton's Re-Election Bid Unemployment rate in August 1995 = 5.0 Unemployment rate in August 1996 = 5.4 Result: Clinton wins the state, 46-44 Rising unemployment. But despite that fact, and despite a nearly 50-year record of voting for GOP candidates, the draft-dodging incumbent President beat the war hero and multi-term Senate Majority Leader. Hmm. But, in this particular campaign cycle, the "mainstream media" keeps telling me that George Bush is in trouble because he's the incumbent and because "undecideds break for the challenger." They're also fired up about the fact that John Kerry -- a Junior Senator from the Northeast -- has a "chestful of medals." Riiiiiiiiiight. Oh, by the way: Click on "Comments" if you want to see how Arizona's job market has been doing over the past year. (Note: 1996 unemployment data here.)
Question
Charles Krauthammer poses an interesting question: What if Bush is reelected? If they lose to him again, Democrats will need more than just consolation. They'll need therapy.
Florida GOP Primary Poll
The new Mason-Dixon poll shows Mel Martinez now leading the GOP Senate race 33%-27%. That's a net eleven point swing in Martinez's favor since the last poll. It is believed that much of the shift toward Martinez comes from undecided voters coming home to the man perceived to be the President's unequivocal choice. Again, what happens on Tuesday in Florida determines what happens in Senate and Presidential races across the country. We CANNOT permit McCollum to again lose what should be a GOP seat in the Senate. Tell everyone you know who is registered to vote as a Republican in Florida to get to the polls and vote Martinez!
Consumer Sentiment Alert!!!
August 1996 - Saint Bill's Re-Election Bid The University of Michigan's Composite Index of Consumer Sentiment = 95.3 August 2004 - George ("tax cuts for the wealthy") Bush's Re-Election Bid The University of Michigan's Composite Index of Consumer Sentiment = . . . . . . . drum roll . . . . . . . . 95.9 Who would have thunk it? (Note: 1996 data can be obtained by scrolling around this site [historical charts].)
Quote of the Day
"Kerry's just too soft and a lot of the guys just don't like his wife. They weren't too impressed when she started speaking all those foreign languages at the Democratic convention. She's not American." -- A restaurant owner in a bellwether part of Minnesota, describing his working-class patrons' views of John Kerry and Teresa Heinz.
"Reporting for Duty"
Here's how John Kerry's "reporting for duty" salute is playing these days: And then, when the [Daily Show] interview was over and Kerry rose to leave, he caused audible groans in my household by saluting the audience (just as he did at the opening of his convention speech: "John Kerry reporting for duty." Lieutenant Kerry, your first order is to stop saluting the audience. It makes you look like a total tool).The author of that review, like most Daily Show viewers, is a Kerry supporter.
The McCain Myth
I would love to be able to hug Rich Lowry's neck today for his article exposing the "Bush smeared McCain in South Carolina" myth. (Link via Betsy's Page) This is one of those subjects that really bothers me, because I remember the mother who stood up in the town hall meeting talking about how a push poller had made her 14-year-old son cry in 2000. I remember thinking that he must be the most sensitive 14-year-old boy in the world if an anonymous phone caller could make him cry by saying something negative about someone he had never met. I also remember that McCain started the negative campaigning against Bush by running an ad comparing his truth telling to that of Bill Clinton's -- talk about a low blow! That one didn't get noticed by the media even though it was run before they got to South Carolina and really started the negative stretch of the campaign. Most of the McCain "smears" were actually described as "rumors" started by Bush people in SC. Many of those advancing these rumors were SC residents supporting Bush and not officially connected to the national Bush campaign, but hey, it made for a good story. Anyway, read the article. Now I want to see some more stories on the "Cleland lost because Republicans smeared him," "Republicans disenfranchised voters in Florida" and "Bill Clinton only lied about sex" myths. There is not enough ink or bandwidth.
An Eyewitness
An eyewitness says Kerry's first Purple Heart wound was self-inflicted: Retired Rear Adm. William L. Schachte Jr. said Thursday in his first on-the-record interview about the swift boat veterans dispute that "I was absolutely in the skimmer" in the early morning on Dec. 2, 1968, when Lt. (j.g.) John Kerry was involved in an incident that led to his first Purple Heart. Thursday, August 26, 2004
The Power of Incumbency - Nevada
Through the years the great State of Nevada has been a cold, cold place for Democratic Presidential candidates. From 1968 through 1988, Republicans won six consecutive Presidential ballots there. Now, Clinton took the state, in 1992, but he received less than 37.5 percent of the votes that were cast that year. And check this out: Nevada - 1996 - Bill Clinton's Re-Election Bid Unemployment rate in August 1995 = 5.3 Unemployment rate in June 1996 = 4.7 Unemployment rate in August 1996 = 5.1 Result: Clinton wins the state, 44-43 Essentially a flat local job market. And, over the Summer of 1996, job creation obviously was not sufficient to keep up with new entrants into the local workforce. Yet, despite all that, and despite the state's history of voting for Republicans, the draft-dodging incumbent President beat the war-hero challenger. Hmm. But, in this particular campaign cycle, Gloria Borger, Mark Shields, Joe Klein, Eleanor Clift, and Bill Press, all keep telling me that incumbency is a "disadvantage." Riiiiiight. Oh, by the way: Click on "Comments" if you want to see how the Silver State's job market has been doing over the past year. (Note: 1996 unemployment data here.)
And Some More State Polls (Updated)
John Kerry just can't catch a break it seems. The Los Angeles Times is now reporting three new state polls - Missouri, Wisconsin, and Ohio. All three poll registered voters, which usually gives Democrats a slight edge. In Missouri, the President leads 46%-44%. In Wisconsin, the President leads 48%-44%. In Ohio, yes OHIO, the President leads 49%-44%. Meanwhile IssuesPA has released a poll showing President Bush ahead of Kerry 45%-44% among likely voters in the Keystone State. One more new poll. In Maryland, another poll shows Kerry leading by eleven points. This is down from the 2000 margin, more evidence for my thesis that Kerry is underperforming in all blue states by 7 points on average. And Bush hasn't even had his convention yet...
Bon Voyage
Check out what Athena at Terrorism Unveiled has been up to lately. I will be saying an extra prayer each night for her safety while in the Middle East. I will certainly miss her blogging. Hopefully, she will be able to do some from over there.
Swift Boat Vet Ad #3
The new Swift Vet ad is up at Human Events Online. I think this is the weakest of the three. It features Steve Gardner, on whom I am sure Kerry has one of those little "brown books," that Crush Kerry exposed, gift-wrapped and in the hands of the media. This ad takes on the Christmas in Cambodia claim, but is pretty general. I don't think it gives enough info for those who haven't been following the story. It doesn't even mention the term "seared" or that Kerry made the Cambodia claim on the floor of the Senate. I think the Swifties would do better now to stop focusing on the specific claims made in the book, since many of them are now known, and focus on how they have been attacked and threatened by lawyers for the Kerry Camp to keep them silent. A very powerful ad could address Kerry's attempt to ban their book and get station managers to pull their ads. Such an ad would be similar to the one I proposed last week .
Lots of Polling Results Out Today
Okay...here we go. In Florida, there is a report that the new Mason-Dixon poll will show Mel Martinez has leaped out into the lead in the Sunshine State GOP primary. Word is that his aides are preparing for him to travel to New York on Wednesday to address the Republican National Convention. Again, this is a critical race, and there are still 18% of Republicans undecided, so keep working! The new Gallup poll out has President Bush leading 50%-47%. As soon as I get more details, I will post them. Meanwhile Lorie sends me an interesting e-mail about the Los Angeles Times poll. If you adjust to likely voters using the 2000 model, President Bush has a six point lead (49%-43%). My expectation is that Republican turnout will actually go up this year.
New Florida Senate Match-Ups
According to Scott Rasmussen's new poll, Mel Martinez runs slightly stronger against Castor than does McCollum, proving my earlier point that Martinez's nomination would probably guarantee a GOP win and McCollum's would guarantee a likely toss-up and Democratic hold. Why do I say this? 1. McCollum should have the highest statewide ID of the three since he has ran in a high-profile race for the Senate in 2000. 2. Martinez obviously has a five point advantage over McCollum in match-ups against both Deutsch and Castor. This is probably the effect of the Hispanic vote in Florida, which went for Jeb Bush in 2002, going for Martinez by even larger margins. Again, I'm probably going to say this everyday until Wednesday, but if there are any Floridians reading this, please tell your friends to vote Martinez on Tuesday. Everything may hinge upon his victory.
Kerry Apology?
From some of the questions I am hearing asked of the Kerry campaign and some of the non-answers they are giving in response to them, I wonder if John Kerry isn't considering an apology (of sorts) for his 1971 testimony. He made a prelude to a half-hearted apology on Meet the Press by saying he probably chose some wrong words due to the emotions that he felt over the subject, but did not actually apologize for his testimony or even for how it affected his fellow vets. My best guess is that he will see whether or not the Republican Convention sufficiently sucks the air out of the controversy or if it continues after the conclusion of the convention. As Polipundit notes below, Kerry's 1971 testimony can be seen on C-Span tonight. NRO has a new article up addressing the testimony as well.
Kerry Testimony
Tonight at 8 PM Eastern C-SPAN will air John Kerry's infamous 1971 Senate testimony.
The Power of Incumbency - Louisiana Style
Through the years the State of Louisiana has not been a safe haven for Democratic Party candidates in Presidential elections. In 1964, Louisiana was one of a handful of states that voted for Barry Goldwater. In 1968, they eschewed Hubert Humphrey's candidacy, opting to cast their electoral votes to George Wallace instead. Republican candidates won the state in four of the six elections that took place between 1972 and 1992. And, in 1992, Clinton took the state; but he won less than 46 percent of the total votes that were cast. With that as the backdrop, check this out: Louisiana - 1996 - Bill Clinton's Re-Election Bid Unemployment rate in August 1995 = 6.6 Unemployment rate in August 1996 = 6.8 Result: Clinton wins the state, 52-40 Hmm. An increase in year-over-year unemployment. But the draft-dodging incumbent President not only beat the war-hero challenger -- in the state that gave us Higgins Boats and Stephen Ambrose's D-Day museum, and which voted for Goldwater -- he did so by a double-digit margin. But, in this campaign cycle, the "media" keeps saying that incumbency is a "disadvantage." Riiiiiight. Oh, by the way: Click on "Comments" if you want to see how the Bayou State's job market has been doing over the past year. (Note: 1996 unemployment data here.)
Delusional, Paranoid, or Simply Desperate?
 Senator (and self-alleged war hero) John Kerry has finally realized that the Swift Boat Vets are a serious problem for his campaign. In an earlier post, I noted that President Bush has handled the issue brilliantly. It seemed to me, that the best course for Kerry, was to find a way to put this issue behind him. But his actions show that Kerry has different thoughts. After insulting the Swift Boat Vets, Kerry tried to claim that Bush's campaign supported them, then tried to threaten the Vets and their publisher and the bookstores with lawsuits. Wednesday, Kerry sent Max Cleland to claim that Bush should specifically denounce the groups and their ads. Kerry has, incidentally, never criticized any of the Democrats' attack dogs and 527 groups. The Swift Boat Vets have clearly done damage to Kerry's support, especially among Independents. So, why would John Kerry still want to mess with this issue? A clue came from radio host Rick Roberts on Wednesday. Roberts says Kerry wants to focus on the Swift Boat ads, because without them he would have to discuss his voting record, or its lack, as a Senator. I like that idea, but it also doesn't go far enough. Let's look at the race overall. The GOP convention is next week, and already Bush has retaken the lead in some polls. Also, the simple situation as we approach the anniversary of 9/11 and the debates, has to be unnerving John Kerry: If the economy continues to improve, and Iraq continues to stabilize, he will have nothing left, except to repeat his April statements, which did not, you may recall, have much effect. So, what to do, what to do? Kerry will go back to what he knows: throw out rhetoric, and hope the other guy makes a mistake. It worked for him against William Weld, and against Howard Dean this spring. In Kerry's game plan, when you can't get ahead, see if you can make your opponent mis-step. That's why Kerry is dwelling on Health Care and attacking Bush's National Guard service all over again; he cannot afford to address the substance of the Swift Boat Vets' allegations, nor can he afford to discuss the economy and Iraq, where recent events show strong Consumer Confidence, and an Iraq where most people think we should be there, and will accomplish our goals. Over on my personal blog, I broke down the state polling, and showed that right now,the race comes down to eight states: Arkansas Florida Iowa Missouri Nevada Ohio West Virginia Wisconsin Only Ohio and Wisconsin could reasonably be called "northern" states, and all eight of these states have heavy numbers of veterans. With a 55-37% lead among veterans in the latest Poll, President Bush is in very good shape for all of these states. So, back to Kerry. Knowing that the Swift Boat issue has hurt him, Kerry is playing two cards to control the damage as best he can. First, Kerry is beginning to understand he will lose most of the veterans to Bush in November. To minimize this, Kerry will continue to attack Bush's service, in hopes his own service, however tainted, will still win in comparison. Kerry has also rallied leading Democrat veterans like Cleland, hoping to sell integrity through association. Second, Kerry is hoping to avoid prolonged examination of his Senate voting record. This is because all there is to it, essentially, is an absence of leadership, except in opposition to a strong National Defense. If Kerry were running a la Howard Dean, as the pacifist candidate, that might work to his advantage. But having voted (sort of) for the Iraq War, and supporting the troops (after a fashion) , Kerry finds himself trying to sell a record which is spotty in more than a few places; I guess that happens when you miss 76%+ of the Intelligence Committee meetings. Overall, then, Kerry has reached a point where he is beginning to understand his position, yet he hopes that the damage has reached a maximum extent, or soon will. If so, Kerry hopes to find a way to regain the initiative, to attack President Bush. Exactly what issue would serve for such a move, does not seem readily apparent, but we may count on Kerry to claim, however falsely, that the economy and Iraq are in shambles, and that there is nothing, really, wrong with his character or ability. It is a strange tactic, to call attention to the bullet you have put into your foot, but that is Kerry's strategy du jour. The reader will have to decide whether that is a mark of delusion, paranoia, or simple desperation.
Even If Everything Kerry Says Is True...
The Swift Boat Vet controversy has taught the public much about John Kerry. Even if everything John Kerry says is true, we now know the following about John Kerry, his supporters and the media (often one and the same): 1) John Kerry's 3 Purple Hearts were awarded for "tweezer and bandaid" type injuries that did not require even one day in the hospital. There are many veterans who suffered more severe injuries who never put in for Purple Hearts. I suspect that many would have been embarrassed to request or accept an award for such a minor injury. 2) John Kerry is extremely sensitive and defensive when anything he asserts is questioned. He has displayed a temperament that is troubling, especially compared to the calm and collect behavior exhibited by Bush over the past year in spite of being compared to Hitler and called an AWOL deserter and a liar incessantly. 3) When John Kerry's service is questioned, he describes it as scurrilous and vicious activity because he is a veteran and he served in Vietnam. When John Kerry and his minions declare 254 Vietnam veterans, including decorated heroes and POWs, to be dishonorable liars, it is okay. 4) John Kerry believes in free speech only if those speaking it agree with him. If they don't, they face lawyers trying to silence them, attempts to ban their book, personal attacks, and attempts to have their ads pulled. 5) The media will decry the way Kerry is being questioned over his military service by 254 fellow Vietnam veterans, and never even mention in the same story the anal probe endured by George Bush over his guard service prompted by accusations of DNC head Terry McAuliffe, Wesley Clark and Michael Moore. 6) John Kerry will use veterans, his swiftboat crewmates and triple amputee, Max Cleland, as political props and is willing to engage in cheap political theater in order to divert attention away from questions about his service. 7) For all the media attention on the accusation of the Bush campaign's coordination with the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth, the overwhelming evidence of coordination has been of that between the Kerry campaign and Democrat leaning 527s such as MoveOn.org. 8) John Kerry refuses to sign Form 180 which would allow for the release of all his military records and he refuses to release his personal journals for examination by journalists. I have not provided links to support the points above because I believe them to have been so well reported on that the facts above are indisputable. If supporting documentation is desired, read the posts of the past few weeks at Polipundit, Captain's Quarters, PowerLine, Hugh Hewitt.com, Betsy's Page and Instapundit and they will provide more than enough specifics and links to supporting news reports to back up the points made.
New Polling Results
I'm going to wait on national polling until later this afternoon, but there is some interesting news on the polling front in Florida, California, and New York. A new Mason-Dixon poll shows Betty Castor leading Congressman Peter Deutsch by a 14 point margin, slightly down from the 16 point advantage she held earlier in the race. We will see Republican polling tomorrow, and probably a Presidential match-up on Saturday. Remember that this is the most critical of Senate primaries. Let's hope that Mel Martinez has some Peter Coors luck! Californians, or Kalifornians, there is increased economic optimism. 65% of Californians think the economy is either staying the same or getting better. You can read more about that poll here. In New York City, where there will soon be more conservatives than in any time since Peter Stuyvesant thumped his way alone down Wall Street, a new poll shows that New Yorkers seem to have positive attitudes about the upcoming GOP convention. Moreover President Bush's job approval has slightly improved to a 25%-70% approval rating, up from 24%-72%. The internal polling data seems to indicate that the President could pick up Staten Island which he lost in 2000. However the other four boroughs, especially my beloved Manhattan, just don't seem just winnable, yet. Hope does spring eternal.
Swift Vets and the LA Times Poll
The most striking effect of the Swift Vets has been to create an anybody-but-Kerry feeling among Republicans. From the latest LA Times poll: Just 18 per cent of those surveyed say they “believe that Kerry misrepresented his war record and does not deserve his war medals,” while 58 per cent say Kerry “fought honorably and does deserve” the medals.If nearly half of Republicans believe the Swift Vets, as I do, then that creates a tremendous incentive for them to vote, donate and volunteer against John Kerry. No wonder Kerry's Republican support is at a tiny 3 percent in the poll.
Liberal Media Dissonance - Talking Down the Economy
Check out these headlines: 1) "Ohio drops over 10,000 manufacturing sector jobs during past year" 2) "California's jobless rate at 7.1 percent -- third highest in entire nation" 3) "Missouri loses 6,000 manufacturing jobs last month" 4) "Unemployment in New Mexico climbs 11 percent, to an overall rate of 7.0" 5) "Michigan sheds 5,000 factory sector jobs in July" Click on "Comments" to find out who wrote each of those harbingers of gloom.
Bias Beyond Belief
The fact that Max Cleland can pull a silly photo op stunt and have the media cover it as news, with no proper context explained (the comparison to the AWOL attacks on Bush and the MoveOn ads), and no factual information supplied which might have exposed the dishonesty of the claims he made, is just more proof of how biased the media has become. But to watch the smoochfest between Chris Matthews and Max Cleland was almost more than I could stomach. The questions Matthews asked him were pathetic enough, but the ones he did not ask should cause him the greatest embarrassment. As I write this, the transcript is not yet available. I will provide some excerpts when it is. Power Line has a great report on the Cleland stunt. UPDATE: Captain's Quarters has a great post on this which links to Rich Lowry's NRO piece showing that, by the media's current standard, Bush is actually financing the attack on himself.
Amen, Brother Hugh
Hugh Hewitt has a commentary at World Net Daily about how the "old media" has been put to shame by the "new media" of bloggers. He explains in this piece in succinct fashion what is so wrong with the "mainstream media." His quote from John Hinderaker of Power Line is so incredibly "spot on" that I found myself nodding my head in agreement. You simply must read the whole thing, but I couldn't resist quoting my personal favorite passage: Lawyers turned amateur journalists are going to be much better at it than time-serving scribblers, and even non-lawyer bloggers with superior research skills – think Captain Ed, Tom McGuire and Polipundit – are going to run rings around "pros" who aren't in a hurry to bring down their favored candidate. |
 
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