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posted by Scott Elliott at 11:20pm 09/10/04
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September 6, 2004

Spelling "Victory"

Do you know how to spell victory?  For President Bush, victory is spelled G-O-P-G-O-T-V. In the days that follow November 2, political analysts will be evaluating the presidential elections of 2004.  They will spout their punditry on morning shows and front pages.  I'll give you a preview of the theme that will dominate the discussion.  The story of the day will be a devastating get-out-the-vote effort by the GOP.

We caught a glimpse of the soon-to-be-legendary 72-hour task force in action in 2002.  Even though polls leading up to voting day showed a tight race overall, the GOP dominated that election.  Close races, by and large, went to the Republican candidate.  The GOP even took some contests in which the Democrat was several points ahead in the polls.  In my much-debated essay entitled "Twenty-one Reasons Why Bush Will Win", I mention this newfound GOP strength.  Rachelle Cohen has written an article which gives some details about how much better the GOP has become at grassroots organizing.  As she puts it...

Voter registration was basically seen as a Democratic plot. After all, if people weren't smart enough or committed enough to register, well, the [..] with 'em. That day is finally over for the GOP.  Maybe it was the 2000 mess in Florida, or maybe the anticipated closeness of this year's race, but the party finally gets it - it is about getting people registered and getting them to the polls. ... The RNC is aiming for 3 million new registered Republicans and since the fall of 2003 has already put 2.4 million new GOP voters on the rolls.  ``We've really changed the culture,'' Hazelwood said, tacitly acknowledging what a low-priority voter registration had been in the past. ... The 72-Hour Task Force - so named because its get-out-the-vote effort really goes into high gear in those last hours prior to and on election day - claims 1.5 million leaders in all 50 states.

Prior to 2002, the GOP GOTV program consisted largely of phone calls and media buys. That strategy fared poorly against the legions of union workers and other Democratic activists combing the streets.  Well, times have changed.  Those legions will be out in force again, but this time they'll be joined by comparably-sized elephant stampedes.  The difference will be substantial.  I'll go so far as to say that, as a result, we can expect Bush and the GOP to perform a full 3 or 4 points better than the round of late-October polls would indicate.

posted by Scott Elliott at 4:45pm 09/06/04
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September 5, 2004

Daily projection updates

I'm sure most of you noticed the Daily Projection notification that I've added to this page and to the election projection page.  Let me first reassure everyone that this site remains a free site. I will continue to post weekly projection updates and frequent commentary for anyone who wants to view them, right up to election day.  Moreover, commentary will continue, God willing, long after this election is over.  The offer is in addition to everything else I do on this website.

I have been amazed by the growth in visitors to this site, and I am truly grateful to everyone who has visited or donated to this point.  To help defer the cost of Election Projection's exploding readership, I'm offering my readers a daily projection email which will provide an up-to-the-minute snapshot of Campaign 2004.  Click here for more information.

posted by Scott Elliott at 11:55pm 09/05/04
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Polling data update

Nevertheless, The Blogging Caesar always uses whatever polls are available to compute the Election Projection, and this week is no different.  President Bush enjoyed his first real lead in quite some time last week.  This week more positive polling data enables him to expand that lead a little.  His electoral vote advantage now stands at 38, 288-250, and the popular vote percentage shows Bush comfortably ahead, 50.9% - 47.3%.

New Hampshire, a red state in 2000 but a persistant sore spot for Bush in 2004, is back in the fold this week thanks to improving national numbers and a lack of recent state polling data. However, I expect the Granite State to continue to be problematic for Bush due to its proximity to Senator Kerry's home state of Massachusetts.

Back to the bounce:  The effect of the convention will not be fully known until the next round of state polls is completed.  These polls usually lag national surveys, and have yet to register a GOP surge.  As a result, state polls help Kerry out significantly this week.  Without them, three states including Iowa, New Mexico, and Oregon, as well as Maine's district 2 would be projected for Bush.

Since I began tracking these projections in August, 2003, the President's most impressive numbers have been 477 electoral votes and a 17.60% margin seen on the 12th of January, 2004.  His worst electoral vote total was 181 on September 5, 2003..  May 26, 2004 saw Mr Bush's worst percentage deficit so far.  That update projected him to lose by 7.6%.

posted by Scott Elliott at 11:30pm 09/05/04
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September 4, 2004

It's all about trust

On Thursday night, our President accepted his party's nomination with a rousing tribute to the character of America and a strong defense of his policies during the last four years.  All the preliminaries of this election campaign are now done.  Eight weeks, three debates and several hundred million dollars now stand between us and decision day.  I listened to President Bush's speech with a mixture of bated breath and deep admiration and respect.  I am an unabashed Bush fan, as you know if you've read my blog for long, so I was naturally pleased and energized by the can do, must do, will do tone of his speech.  I was gripped by Bush's account of the days after September 11, 2001.  I was moved seeing the emotion of a man deeply struck by the reactions of individual Americans during the hard times that followed.  Granted, I wasn't too impressed by creative new ways to expand the federal government, but, hey, nobody's perfect!

One thing his tendency for bigger government does display, though, is Bush's genuine concern for the citizens of this country.  I may not always agree with the implementation of his compassion, but I am glad to have a president who sincerely cares for those around him. Equally important in this world filled with constant threats of terror, our President reminded us once again that he will not cower in the face of difficult choices, nor will he waver once those decisions have been made.

However, it occurred to me then that many in this country were listening with a much different response.  Immersed within the polarized conflict Americans are waging in this country nowadays, lies one overriding question.  It is a question that is the very essence of the intense hatred and profound love for this man.  That question is: Do you trust him?

The answer for the vast majority of Americans is inseparably connected to their degree of support or disapproval of his presidency.  For those of us who take his words as true and generally unexaggerated, his presidency has been a great success and his leadership has averted and will continue to avert many deadly consequences in the War on Terror.  For those who believe Bush couldn't tell the truth if it was streaming across the teleprompter in front of him, his presidency has been an unmitigated disaster.  And then there is that undecided group, as small as 2 or 3 percent in some polls, who see Bush as your average "stretch-and-spin-the-truth-to-fit-your-purposes" politician.  In stark contrast to other presidential elections, I don't think this group will have much effect on the election one way or the other.

This year the election is more about getting out the base than any other factor, and the bases involved can be identified by their degree of trust in President Bush.  In the end, Bush's speech, while awesome in the eyes and ears of The Blogging Caesar, will only impact the outcome of the election in the manner in which it energizes those whose opinions of him have already been solidified.  He did nothing to diminish the respect and love of many Americans. Indeed, he effectively confirmed why so many of us hold him in such high esteem.  Likewise, I'm sure, he fanned the flames of hatred for those who think he is akin to "Hitler" or "the anti-Christ."

So, amid all the talk on the economy, education, terror, Iraq, taxes, health care, and the environment, I ask you the one question that, in the end and perhaps subconsiously, may influence more votes than all these issues - Do you trust him as your president?

Through his unwavering strength in the face of terrorism's global menace, through his compassion for his fellow man, and through his commitment to traditional moral values now firmly entrenched once again in the White House, George W. Bush has resoundingly earned my trust.  And I believe he is the candidate that all of us can trust.

posted by Scott Elliott at 5:50pm 09/04/04
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September 1, 2004

"The conscience of the Democratic party"

That's the way Georgia Senator Zell Miller was introduced tonight.  What can I say about that man?  He was outstanding.  In July, I thought Barak Obama was fabulous at the Democratic National Convention, a head and shoulders above anyone else who spoke that week.  So far this week, Senator Miller is the Barak Obama of the GOP Convention.  His words cut right to the heart of what our country faces in these times and the compounded risk we'll take if John Kerry is elected president.  And the fact that he is a Democrat adds weight and veracity to his assertions.

Surely, if Kerry has a nightmare tonight, Zell Miller will be there.  Democratic activists and left-wingers will try to downplay this speech; they will say he is now nothing more than a Republican with a "D" after his name.  That may be true.  But Zell has not changed; his party has.  Unfortunately for them, I believe Miller's willingness to speak out at the RNC and the forcefulness of his words will impact independents and moderate Democrats alike.  I hope voters in battleground states will be introduced time and time again to clips of this speech in political ads.  Miller's speech hit its mark tonight and will continue to right up to election day.

posted by Scott Elliott at 11:40pm 09/01/04
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Reason #16:  Governor Schwarzenegger

The Governator was on last night.  He was a hoot.  His differences with the socially conservative wing of the GOP have been well-documented.  The wild and crazy days of his youth have too.  He may not be the man to hold up the flag of virtue in this country, but he certainly embodies what this country has meant to countless immigrants down through the years.  And he certainly knows a Republican when he sees one.

My favorite part of the speech, his economic girlie men comment included, was his description of the different types of Republicans.  I've often thought that many more would consider themselves Republicans if the truth about the GOP were known and the presentation of the GOP in the media were not so negative.  In case you missed it, I'm posting that part of the speech here.  Don't be surprised to find yourself somewhere in the list.

If you believe that government should be accountable to the people, not the people to the government, then you are a Republican. If you believe a person should be treated as an individual, not as a member of an interest group, then you are a Republican. If you believe your family knows how to spend your money better than the government does, then you are a Republican. If you believe our educational system should be held accountable for the progress of our children, then you are a Republican. If you believe this country, not the United Nations, is the best hope for democracy, then you are a Republican. And, ladies and gentlemen, if you believe that we must be fierce and relentless and terminate terrorism, then you are a Republican. Now, there's another way you can tell you're a Republican.  You have faith in free enterprise, faith in the resourcefulness of the American people and faith in the U.S. economy.

posted by Scott Elliott at 10:30pm 09/01/04
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August 31, 2004

Reason #20:  Rudy Giuliani

I just finished watching former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani's speech at the Republican National Convention.  I hope all of you did, too.  What a great speech!  Guiliani was the perfect voice to remind America how George W. Bush's resolve led this country through one of her darkest hours.  Remember how you felt as the President addressed the joint houses of Congress a few days after the tragedy of September 11.  Remember the goose bumps as he declared that, as we heard from the terrorists on that terrible day, the terrorists would surely hear from us.

The man who stood before us that day is the same man who will accept the GOP nomination later this week.  Rudy told us all what we should never forget:  President Bush's resolve has steadfastly and courageously led our country through the uncharted, dangerous waters of this post 9-11 world.  Whether or not you agree with his decisions, Bush has stayed the course he believes is right.  As the Mayor emphatically reinforced, we can all rest assured with President Bush at the helm that our nation will never be tentatively or hesistantly led.

I thought one of the most telling comments of the night came, not from one of the featured speakers, but from Mort Kondrake, a journalist from Roll Call.  Brit Hume of Fox News asked the panel there at the table what the sound bites will be on tomorrow's news shows. Mr. Kondrake said he thought the media would pick out Giuliani's words describing Kerry's flip-flopping on national security issues.  He said the spin would be that the GOP convention had already "gone negative."  If that prediction does prove to be true, what a shame that will be.  Tonight was full of positive, uplifting moments.  It was a celebration of our country's greatness and the unbending, "principle leadership" of our President.  The convention is off to a great start.  Get ready for FOUR MORE YEARS!

posted by Scott Elliott at 1:10am 08/31/04
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August 29, 2004

Polling data update

Woohoo!!  The Republican National Convention begins tomorrow in the midst of a pretty substantial "pre-convention" bounce for the President.  His ever-improving job approval and the toll those Swift Boat Veterans for Truth ads are taking on Kerry's numbers have pushed Bush into the lead in this week's Election Projection.  For the first time in months, Bush is actually projected to take a state Al Gore won in 2000.  Thanks to some recent state polling numbers, Wisconsin is now colored red.  New Hampshire remains a problem for Bush, though, as state polls continue to show Senator Kerry with a pretty good lead there even though national numbers alone indicate Bush should be ahead.

So, the final projection before the Republican National Convention is here.  The President leads the Senator 284-254 and even has the advantage in the popular vote, 49.2% - 48.9%.
I didn't think this kind of movement would be seen until after the convention.  One thing is for sure - the President's post-convention bounce will certainly be lessened by the positive results of this week's polling.  Hey, I'm not complaining, though.  I'm excited that Bush numbers are finally moving in the direction I expected them to long before now.  One interesting fact to note:  if an average of just 2.5% of Kerry voters change their minds and go with Bush, The Blogging Caesar's predictions will be right on target.

Since I began tracking these projections in August, 2003, the President's most impressive numbers have been 477 electoral votes and a 17.60% margin seen on the 12th of January, 2004.  His worst electoral vote total was 181 on September 5, 2003.  May 26, 2004 saw Mr. Bush's worst percentage deficit so far.  That update projected him to lose by 7.6%.

posted by Scott Elliott at 3:50pm 08/29/04
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August 27, 2004

Colorado:  seeking irrelevance

In presidential campaigns, the electoral college is the last word.  Never mind opinion polls, popular votes, gender gaps, and all the others trappings that political junkies like me love to follow.  It is the electoral college that matters, and it is what drives how campaign dollars are spent.  In the end, every penny spent by Mr. Bush and Mr. Kerry on their respective campaigns this year will be for one purpose and one purpose alone - gaining a majority of electoral votes on November 2nd.

Each state, as even casual political observers know, is awarded electoral votes based on population.  Large states get the most and are the most coveted election prizes.  Smaller states get less, but, as was the case for New Hampshire and its 4 electoral votes in 2000, they can play a pivotal role in determining the winner.  Colorado faces a decision this year that could make it the least important state in the nation, electorally speaking.

On the ballot there will be a measure that would divide the state's 9 electoral votes according to the percentage of popular vote garnered by each candidate.  If the measure passes, future presidential candidates will have little or no reason to campaign in the state. Under the current winner-take-all process, Colorado has a fairly significant say in who will occupy the White House next year.  As the state has become more of a battlegound this time around, Colorado is getting quite a bit of attention.  That influence will be diminished to approximately nothing if this measure becomes law.  How is that so?  It is simply a matter of cost and benefit.

Right now, campaigning in the state can provide a substantial benefit - 9 electoral votes.  So, the cost is worth it.  But only because a candidate needs win by only 1 vote to capture them all.  By contrast, under the proposed plan, a candidate stands to gain a 1 electoral vote advantage at best, 5-4.  In fact, that candidate would have to get over 61% of the two-party vote in order to switch just one additional electoral vote in his favor.  That is an impossibility in all but the most overwhelming of national landslide scenarios.  So the only real battle becomes who will get 5 and who will get 4.  In other words, the measure on the ballot in Colorado would reduce the state's effective electoral votes from 9 to just 1.

posted by Scott Elliott at 6:20pm 08/27/04
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August 25, 2004

Good polling news

I know it is just one poll, but the trends are looking good...

Bush Overtakes Kerry in Latest L.A. Times Poll   (free registration required)

Update:  The trends to which I refer are noted in the story:

That small shift from July was within the poll's margin of error.  But it fit with other findings in the Times poll showing the electorate edging toward Bush over the past month on a broad range of measures, from support for his handling of Iraq to confidence in his leadership and honesty.

Several emails I've received indicate some visitors to this site thought I meant this single poll represented a trend.  Of course, one poll does not a trend make.

posted by Scott Elliott at 11:05pm 08/25/04
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August 23, 2004

More on the Iraqi soccer team

I've received some rather vehement emails regarding my earlier post on the Iraqi soccer team and their success in this year's Olympic games.  I'm a little confused by a common sentiment expressed in many of them.  Here is an excerpt from one such email:

I am sure the 10's of thousand who have been killed for this stupid war feel it was all worth it to have a good team.

The intent of the post was to comment on a positive by-product of toppling Saddam Hussein. It was never meant to be a justification for the war in Iraq.  I just wanted to point out some good news that has resulted from President Bush's decision to eliminate Saddam from the global terror equation.  The President doesn't need an Iraqi Olympic medal to make his case for war.  He has all the justification he'll ever need - for anyone willing to look objectively at the situation.

Additionally, I have read the articles such as this one which quote members of the Iraqi soccer team. I find the personal philosophy of the three or four men quoted in those articles to be interesting and quite revealing.  They are clearly pro-Saddam holdovers (who, as evidenced by the presence of all 4 extremities, apparently avoided disappointing their Olympic committee chairman, Uday Hussein).  One man, Ahmed Manajid, even goes so far as to readily admit he would be one of the terrorists currently resolved to kill Americans and other Iraqis alike were he not playing soccer.  Are we to base our conclusions on the rants of our enemies, on those who would take joy in killing us?  I choose not to.

I also find it interesting that "to a man" the Iraqi team is glad Saddam's villainous son is no longer in charge of their Olympic team.  I don't see the logic in wanting to kill the very ones who have lifted such a burden from one's shoulders.  Do you?  These articles seem to me to be trying find unrest among the Iraqis and present it as being representative of the entire populace in an attempt to cast further blame on the President's actions.  I know Rush Limbaugh is biased on the right and Air America is biased on the left.  To my knowledge, they don't try to say they are not.  I sure wish we had objectivity in the portion of the media which does claim to be unbiased.  Sigh...

posted by Scott Elliott at 12:30am 08/23/04
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August 22, 2004

Polling data update

Not much happened on the polling front this week.  CBS News released a poll, as did Harris Interactive.  Beside some older right track numbers from Gallup and a few state polls, that's all the changes that are included in this week's Election Projection.  There were some gains realized by the President this week, but, I as mentioned in my last update, the slight fluctuations we're seeing these days are not significant.  They are simply statistical noise as polling firms more favorable to Bush replace those which are not so favorable and vice-versa.  Overall, the numbers have been remarkably stable over the last 6 weeks.

Let me detail this week's fluctuation.  Senator Kerry still holds the lead in both electoral votes and popular vote percentage.  President Bush regains Missouri and Nevada, narrowing the electoral vote margin to 84, 311-227.  Bush also sees a small uptick in the popular vote projection.  He now trails Kerry 50.7% - 47.4%.  State polling data has no effect on the results this week.

Since I began tracking these projections in August, 2003, the President's most impressive numbers have been 477 electoral votes and a 17.60% margin seen on the 12th of January, 2004.  His worst electoral vote total was 181 on September 5, 2003.  May 26, 2004 saw Mr. Bush's worst percentage deficit so far.  That update projected him to lose by 7.6%.

posted by Scott Elliott at 10:30pm 08/22/04
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August 21, 2004

What Bush has wrought

While the Iraqi soccer team's stellar showing in the Olympics is a big deal in and of itself, I know that this level of success on a sport's field does not signify all is right in the world. However, a salient point to be made is that this year's team didn't have to concern themselves with loss of life and limb had they not done so well.  No, the fear of amputations and other inhuman tortures is conspicuously absent from the soccer players' minds.  Why so?  Because they had a champion to free them from a psychotic tyrant's grip, a liberator with the courage to meet and defeat their torturer in the face of his own potential political ruin.  Who is this man of character and courage?  He is our President.  He is George W. Bush.

Some of you will accuse me of politicizing an apolitical event.  Well, you know what?  Often the actions of leaders in political offices do affect the progression of things in this world.  That's just the way it is.  Our President made the choice to free Iraq, and his detractors do all they can to lay as much blame as they can at his feet for the bad things that happen as a result.  I believe he should get the credit when something positive comes out of it.  GO IRAQ!
Way to go, GWB!

posted by Scott Elliott at 7:25pm 08/21/04
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August 16, 2004

Polling data update

The latest Election Projection is up, and the roller coaster ride continues.  Last week the President made up some ground, almost eliminating Senator Kerry's post-convention bounce. Kerry turns the tables on Bush this week and expands his lead once again.  Up and down we go; where we'll stop nobody knows!  Aren't politics fun?

An interesting coincidence has happened with this week's numbers:  President Bush loses Ohio, Nevada, and Missouri while gaining West Virginia.  That's the exact opposite of last week's results, meaning we're at the same place we were two weeks ago when Senator Kerry led 327-211 in electoral votes.  Unlike last week, we don't see any states switching sides due to state polls this time.  Kerry's popular vote margin has expanded to 4.4%, 51.3% - 46.9%.

The Blogging Caesar doesn't see a lot of impetus to move these numbers much during the run up to the GOP convention which begins at the end of the month.  The changes we're seeing right now represent a kind of holding pattern.  Even though fluctuations in the electoral vote counts may seem more than trivial, a deeper look at the state-by-state numbers reveals that we're sliding around within the margin of error for a dozen or more states.  Those 'tossup' states represent well over 100 EVs.  Bottom line:  If the election were held today, Kerry would be slightly favored to win in my book but certainly not a sure thing.

Since I began tracking these projections in August, 2003, the President's most impressive numbers have been 477 electoral votes and a 17.60% margin seen on the 12th of January, 2004.  His worst electoral vote total was 181 on September 5, 2003..  May 26, 2004 saw Mr Bush's worst percentage deficit so far.  That update projected him to lose by 7.6%.

posted by Scott Elliott at 12:25am 08/16/04
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August 10, 2004

Polling data update

This week's Election Projection shows a tightening race.  The convention bounce has been quantified for your benefit by The Blogging Caesar.  In the update before the convention, Kerry led by 2.2%.  That lead jumped slightly to 3.8% last week.  I thought additional polling data this week might give Kerry an even larger lead, but that is not the case.  The margin now stands at 3.1%, 50.6%-47.5%.  That means the official Democratic Convention bounce was 1.6% and peaked last week.

This week President Bush gains Ohio, Nevada, and Missouri while losing West Virginia, resulting in a 296-242 electoral vote advantage for Senator Kerry.  Ohio and West Virginia switch hands due to state polls.  This is the first projection in which the President has lost a state and gained one in the same week.

Since I began tracking these projections in August, 2003, the President's most impressive numbers have been 477 electoral votes and a 17.60% margin seen on the 12th of January, 2004.  His worst electoral vote total was 181 on September 5, 2003..  May 26, 2004 saw Mr Bush's worst percentage deficit so far.  That update projected him to lose by 7.6%.

posted by Scott Elliott at 12:30am 08/10/04
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August 8, 2004

Weekend getaway delays update

My family and I went off on a little weekend vacation to Pigeon Forge, Tennessee.   We had a great time visiting Dollywood and spending some time with my in-laws.  In the midst of all the fun, I haven't had time to get the next polling data update ready.  You can expect it soon, probably tomorrow night.

posted by Scott Elliott at 10:35pm 08/08/04
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August 7, 2004

The last word on the Swift Vets

All told, I have received over 100 emails addressing my recent comments on the Swift Boat Vets and their anti-Kerry ad.  Many were complimentary of my decision to retract the post. Some voiced their displeasure.  Still others expressed curiosity of what revealing bit of information convinced me to fully retract the post.  In response to all the feedback, I want to let everyone know, as best I can, exactly how I feel about the ad and the subject of Senator Kerry's military service.

In the interest of keeping this post as short as possible, I'm just going to highlight the pertinent points.

posted by Scott Elliott at 12:50am 08/07/04
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August 5, 2004

Conditional retraction

If you have been a reader of this site for long, you know that I am interested in the truth above all else when it comes to the content of this site.  I painstakingly strive to espouse only that which I believe is the truth.  Sometimes the truth hurts; sometimes it is ugly.  Sometimes it even means calling into question the military service of a decorated Viet Nam veteran such as Senator Kerry.

Sometimes, however, it also means retracting a post when enough doubt is cast on the veracity of the information contained in it.  I do not condemn the Swift Boat Veterans and their anti-Kerry ad as Senator John McCain does, but, in response to McCain's statements and other feedback I've received from readers, I do feel compelled to remove my earlier post affirming them.  Consider it a conditional retraction because if more comes to my attention concerning their activities, whether postive or negative, I will respond accordingly.

Let me make one thing clear - John Kerry granted a license to scrutinize his military service, war hero or not, when he made it such a critical part of his quest for the White House.  If that service can stand up under such scrutiny, so be it - if it cannot, likewise.

Update:  I said above that I would react if I heard more about this group and its claims.  Well, I have heard more, and I will react.  Much to the chagrin, I'm sure, of many right-wingers out there, I am moved by the additional information received to unqualify my previous retraction.
It is no longer conditional; consider the post in question fully retracted.

posted by Scott Elliott at 5:00pm 08/05/04
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August 3, 2004

Commenting discontinued

I have made the very difficult decision to discontinue commenting on this site.  Initially, the comments were few and easy to manage and most people were good about adhering to my commenting policy.  Recently, however, the readership of this site and the resulting number of comments posted have increased to the point where it is impossible for me to police them all. I regret to remove a very popular part of this website, but I just don't have the time to monitor the huge number of comments being posted.  Since I will not have profanity and personal attacks on this site, I have no reasonable choice but to remove commenting.  I do want to thank the many who have engaged in civil, if sometimes spirited, discourse here at Election Projection.  I will miss it.  Do feel free to email me.  I plan to start posting reader comments again from time to time.

posted by Scott Elliott at 1:20am 08/03/04
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August 1, 2004

Polling data update

The Democratic National Convention is over.  Time will tell what kind of bounce John/John will get from it.  This week's Election Projection shows a slight bounce is underway.  However, there are many polling firms that haven't released post-convention numbers.  Also, this edition of the projection doesn't include any post-convention state polls.  So, I don't believe we should quantify the bounce just yet.  The Blogging Caesar will wait until next week to give you the final DNC bounce.

As I said, there is a noticable bump in Senator Kerry's numbers this week.  He has recovered the three states that went to President Bush in last week's projection: Ohio, Florida, and Nevada.  That means we're right back where we were two weeks ago.  Kerry leads in electoral votes, 327-211.  As expected, he also has the lead in the popular vote projection, 51.0%-47.2%.  Interestingly, state polls have no effect this time.

Since I began tracking these projections in August, 2003, the President's most impressive numbers have been 477 electoral votes and a 17.60% margin seen on the 12th of January, 2004.  His worst electoral vote total was 181 on September 5, 2003..  May 26, 2004 saw Mr Bush's worst percentage deficit so far.  That update projected him to lose by 7.6%.

One extra thought for today:  If you enjoy keeping up with these projections and you appreciate the hard work that goes into calculating them each week, maybe you would consider contributing a few bucks.  If that's something you'd like to do, just click on the PayPal logo at the top of this page.  Thanks!

Update:  The Gallup Poll wasn't released in time to be included in this week's projection. Apparently, we may not see much of a bounce after all.  I just did a quick recalculation using this poll, and, as a result, Ohio goes back to Bush by a scant 0.02%!

posted by Scott Elliott at 4:35pm 08/01/04
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