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Nouriel Roubini's EconoMonitor

From Foreign Policy:

How Obama can save the fragile economy from going back into a tailspin.

Roughly three years since the onset of the financial crisis, the U.S. economy increasingly looks vulnerable to falling back into recession. The United States is flirting with "stall speed," an anemic rate of growth that, if it persists, can lead to collapses in spending, consumer confidence, credit, and other crucial engines of growth. Call it a "double dip" or the Great Recession, Round II: Whatever the term, we're talking about a negative feedback loop that would be devilishly hard to break.

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What is the outlook for the global economy? First, the recovery will be multi-speed: anaemic, sub-par, below-trend and U-shaped in the US and most other advanced economies, given a multi-year slog of private and public sector deleveraging that has barely begun; more robust and V-shaped in most emerging economies where potential growth is higher, debt and leverage in private and public sectors lower, and financial markets more robust. 

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Living in the Post-Bubble World: What's Next? Click for more information
Professional Risk Managers’ International Association
Date: Wednesday, October 6, 2010
Time: 2:00 PM — 4:00 PM
Location: Wohlstetter Conference Center, Twelfth Floor, AEI 1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036

About This Event

Video of this event will be livestreamed online at http://american.com/archive/2010/october/living-in-the-post-bubble-world-whats-next      

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Yuan Revaluation for China's Own Sake

By Peter Stein

U.S. lawmakers have put China's currency policy high up on America's political agenda. Nouriel Roubini believes it ought to be even higher on China's economic agenda.

The famously gloomy economist, known in part for his prescient views ahead of the global financial crisis, says China needs to revalue its currency, the yuan, not because failure to do so hurts the U.S. Rather, keeping the yuan artificially low will lead China's own economy to hit a dangerous "growth wall" in the next two to three years, he said in an interview on the sidelines of the World Capital Markets Symposium in Kuala Lumpur last week.

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CNBC Video -- Expect a Slow and Anemic Recovery: Roubini (Click for Video [4:54])

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On the two year anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers, Sebastian Mallaby, the Director of the Maurice R. Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies and Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, sat down with Nouriel Roubini at RGE’s New York headquarters on Morton Street for a spirited discussion on the future of finance.   

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From the Washington Post:

Nearly three years since the onset of the financial crisis, the continued weakness of the labor and real estate markets, U.S. consumers' unbalanced balance sheets and fading support from policy stimulus have transformed the risk of a double-dip recession from unlikely to about a 40 percent likelihood. The government responded creatively and massively to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system: The Troubled Assets Relief Program, stimulus spending and near-zero interest rates for nearly two years prevented a second Great Depression.

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After a summer of Europeans forgetting their woes and tanning themselves at the beach, the time for a reality check has come. For the fundamental problems of the eurozone remain unresolved.

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Bloomberg -- Nouriel Roubini discusses the outlook for the U.S. economy and the possibility of a double-dip recession, which he puts at 40 percent. (This report is an excerpt of the full interview.)

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Nouriel starts at 19:25 (Click for YouTube Video)

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