Bill O'Reilly says he has "a measure of respect" for Obama

Yet another conservative/Republican going soft as the election approaches. It seems everyone wants to be Obama's friend nowadays. Now why is that?

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Send me your best political Halloween photos

I want to see what folks are doing for Halloween that's political. Feel free to share your pics, and I'll post the best. Thanks, JOHN

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Her Royal Highness Lady Lynn de Redneck says we must vote for McCain to help the rich

I kid you not. She wrote a piece today whining about how unfair Obama's tax plan is because it focuses on the rich. Uh, ixnay on the ichray, my lady. I don't think McCain wants his main argument with Obama's tax plan to be that Obama is taxing the super-rich while McCain will be better for the super-rich. Considering most of us just loss 40% of our retirement - well, those of us without "de" in our names (even by marriage) - we don't want to hear how great John McCain is because he'll protect the super wealthy. Man, it's no wonder McCain banished Lady Redneck to a secret undisclosed location. The golden foot just keeps jumping into that mouth. Read the rest of this post...

Charlie Cook: Without an act of God, Obama is going to win

As always, he won't win if people don't turn out and vote. Let's never forget losing Florida, and the 2000 election, by only 500 and some votes. More from First Read:

Political analyst Charlie Cook writes that, unless there’s divine intervention, McCain is probably going down to defeat. “Say what you will about the campaign he has waged and the running mate he picked, but the collapse in credit markets and the stock market may very well have ended his chances of victory, notwithstanding anything he could have said or done differently. The senator from Arizona is a good man, who served his country admirably. And many would say that he deserved a better chance than he got.”

Why? Why did he deserve a better chance? Did we force McCain to pick a blithering idiot as his running mate? Did we force him to go all Karl Rove and destroy his own brand he spent decades building? Did we force John McCain to flash his anger one too many times? Did we make John McCain erratic?

Why is it somehow unfair to expect John McCain to compete in America as it is? Was it unfair for Democrats to have to win elections in the immediate aftermath of September 11? America has serious economic problems and the country doesn't trust Republicans, or John McCain specifically, on this issue. That's John McCain's fault, and no one else's. Read the rest of this post...

It's the media's fault that Palin is a blithering idiot

I mean, I have to give the conservatives some credit - they have an impossible task dealing with Sarah Palin's ongoing gaffes and overall idiocy. But to suggest, as they now are, that the media is to blame for all the anti-Palin stories of the past two months, kind of misses the larger point. Much of the news about Palin has been negative because she has had her share, and then some, of scandal, gaffes and overall idiocy. She's one of the worst vice presidential picks in American history, and has a definite knack for revealing the worst in herself. She quite literally is bad news.

Oh, and I did particularly love this quote from Palin:

“I mean, talk about my wardrobe and never talking about the male candidate's wardrobe. Or the questions posed to me of how I will be able to serve in office and still raise a family. I've never heard that asked of a male candidate,” she said.

Show of hands: How many male candidates bought $150,000 in clothes in one month? Come on, keep those hands up. Also, the Republicans had a field day with Bill Clinton's and John Edwards' supposedly expensive haircuts. So spare us the victim lecture. (Oh, and John McCain has had his $500 Italian shoes mocked too.) Read the rest of this post...

Ted Stevens in alternative universe

Is reality that different up in Alaska? Sarah Palin said she did nothing wrong when she clearly violated ethics laws. Now Ted Stevens says he wasn't convicted. Huh? From the Anchorage Daily News:

With just four days before the election and Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens insisting he's not a felon, the U.S. Senate race is white hot.

"I've not been convicted yet," Stevens said Thursday in a meeting with the editorial board of the Fairbanks Daily News-Miner. "There's not a black mark by my name yet, until the appeal is over and I am finally convicted, if that happens. If that happens, of course I'll do what's right for Alaska and for the Senate. ... I don't anticipate it happening, and until it happens I do not have a black mark."

Stevens reiterated that position during a televised debate late Thursday night, declaring early in the give-and-take with Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, "I have not been convicted of anything."

But wait, I thought Ted Stevens was convicted and even Republicans were asking him to resign? Seems that the Anchorage Daily News is living in the same world I am:

A Washington, D.C., jury Monday convicted Stevens of seven felony counts of lying on financial disclosure forms about thousands of dollars of gifts and home renovations from Veco Corp.
...
Senate Republicans including minority leader McConnell have said Stevens should resign. So has Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, the Republican vice presidential nominee, and her running mate, John McCain.

Ted Stevens has completely lost it. How can anyone in Alaska vote for a convicted felon? Help Mark Begich defeat Stevens and bring Alaska back into reality.

UPDATE: DailyKos has recent polling info from Alaska. Read the rest of this post...

McCain seems to refuse to say that Palin is qualified as president

This is the face McCain makes when talking about the possibility of Palin becoming president.



Now watch this quick 20 second clip. McCain seems comfortable saying that Palin will make a good VP, but then he talks about her possibly becoming president, and he freezes mid-sentence. Watch it.

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Great new ad from the No on Prop 8 campaign -- and this campaign is making James Dobson cry

UPDATE 4:58 PM: Literally just got an email from the No on Prop 8 campaign with this message:

This morning's Field Poll carries news that Prop 8 is narrowly losing, 44 to 49%.

This initiative battle is razor thin. We know that 7 to 10% of voters are still up for grabs.

And Tim Gill and Scott Miller will match your donation up to $100,000 if you respond NOW.

We really want Prop 8 to lose. And, right now, any contribution will be matched, meaning its value is doubled. So, if you've been thinking about donating, do it now. Keep the very powerful new ad running.
_________________

Today, we learned from the Field Poll that the "No on Prop 8" side has a slight lead in the latest Field Poll. The No campaign launched a powerful new ad narrated by Samuel L. Jackson.



Help run this ad. Donate to the No on 8 campaign. Prop 8 is making James Dobson cry -- literally:

On his radio show today, Focus on the Family's James Dobson announced that he would be on hand at The Call in San Diego's Qualcomm Stadium on Saturday as part of the last drive by anti-gay activists to rally support for California's Proposition 8, which, if passed, would amend the state's constitution to take away the right of same-sex couples to marry.

Dobson lives in Colorado, of course, but he believes the rejection of Proposition 8 will lead to the downfall of Western civilization, as he tearfully laid out on his radio program today.

Really make him cry. Make those tears real. Help defeat the hateful Prop 8. Read the rest of this post...

Obama stops palling around with cultists

Let's face it, he really had no choice - it was only a matter of time before John McCain and Sarah Palin started complaining about Obama palling around the country with known cultists. Read the rest of this post...

Reagan's Chief of Staff will vote for Obama, trashes McCain's judgment for picking Palin

Another prominent Republican dumps McCain:

Former Reagan chief of staff Ken Duberstein told CNN's Fareed Zakaria this week he intends to vote for Democrat Barack Obama on Tuesday.

Duberstein said he was influenced by another prominent Reagan official - Colin Powell - in his decision.

"Well let's put it this way - I think Colin Powell's decision is in fact the good housekeeping seal of approval on Barack Obama."

And, Duberstein was brutal -- just brutal -- about McCain's pick of Palin on MSNBC. For example, a job at McDonald's requires more interviews than Palin had:

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Memories

Village Voice:

''[The Wall Street Journal's John Fund] was supposed to spend Thanksgiving with me and didn't,'' she recalls. ''I questioned him when he got home and he beat me up. I was cowering in the corner. He was screaming. He said, 'Get out, bitch,' and he left, and I called the police. He came back and beat me up again. When the police arrived, I was shaking and crying and very upset. He was very calm. A lady officer walked in and asked me if I was on drugs. John told me that none of the charges would stick.'' In mid January, the mainstream media first reported on Fund's alleged abuse.

Around that time, Pillbury says, she moved out and Fund agreed to give her money to help pay her bills. He watched her write checks from his account and deposit them in her account. Soon after, she says, ''I found out that my accounts were frozen and he told me that they were going to stay frozen until I contacted these members of the media and gave them papers saying that I had lied about the abuse.'' She says the bank did not return her calls. Says Pillsbury-Foster, ''This is obviously part of a pattern of abuse and attempted control, and yet the D.A. refused to listen to her.''

SF Chronicle:

The California Federation of Republican Women holds its big two-day conference down in Ontario (San Bernardino County) over the weekend -- but the private buzz isn't about President Bush, it's about John Fund. If the name escapes you, he's the Wall Street Journal's online columnist who -- after taking aim at Bill Clinton's sexual exploits -- wound up with his own tabloid troubles. Fund's fun in the sun began with an affair with Melinda Pillsbury-Foster some two decades ago. It ended in 1998 when Fund took up with Pillsbury-Foster's grown daughter, who accused him of getting her pregnant and then asking her to have an abortion -- all of which he's denied. Fund was later charged with domestic abuse, but a judge dismissed the case in December.

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Poll: Obama/McCain tied in Arizona, McCain would lose Senate seat in AZ if election were today

More reasons why Obama started advertising in Arizona. A new poll from Daily Kos, two polls from Arizona - the first McCain vs Obama, the second McCain's Senate race in 2010:

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/28-30. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)

McCain (R) 48
Obama (D) 47

Early voters (17 percent of sample)

McCain (R) 42
Obama (D) 54

I can't believe we may actually win Arizona. And I have a bonus treat for you guys:

If the 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Janet Napolitano the Democrat and John McCain the Republican?

McCain (R) 45
Napolitano (D) 53

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Top McCain supporter blisters Palin

Of course she's not ready, says Republican former Secretary of State (and McCain supporter) Lawrence Eagleburger, and he "devoutly hopes" she's never "tested" in the presidency.

You vote for McCain, you vote for the blithering idiot to very possible take over the presidency some time in the next 4 years, if McCain dies in office. If you don't value your 401k or your safety or your country, vote for McCain and be prepared for another Bush administration, with all the extremism and idiocy wrapped in one.

Note from Jacki: Nico and Sam report McCain's response to Eagleburger's comments:

McCain is asked to respond to Eagleburger's remarks during an appearance on Good Morning America Friday. And... he's not troubled by them.

"Larry has never had a chance to meet Sarah," he says.

McCain's starting to sound like that girlfriend of yours who's dating a guy you know - and all your friends know - is bad news. And everyone who meets him thinks he's a nightmare, but she keeps insisting you just don't know him like she does. It's pathetic. Read the rest of this post...

Wasilla is having a sale on rape kits

We hired my good friend Andy Cobb to produce a few pre-election videos. Here is the first, about our favorite topic. Read more about how Sarah Palin charged rape victims for their own forensic exams, then make sure you rate this video and favorite it on the YouTube page here. And send this URL to your friends, so they can see the video too: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sxCQpPCTjj8

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Early voting going well in FL, GA, and NC

Following up on Joe's post below about the expanded ad campaign map, there are a couple of key early voting indicators that are giving the Obama campaign reason and encouragement:

• Early voting in Georgia has been encouraging to the campaign and helped put them on the air. It's not like the Obama campaign hasn't been active in Georgia, they have over 4,800 neighborhood captains.
• In Florida, roughly 1/4 of of early voting is "sporadic" Democrats - i.e. registered Democrats who may not have voted in the last Presidential.
• Similar story in North Carolina - 19% of Democrats have never voted in a General Election before.
• The campaign believes that early voting is going to be a predictor of the turnout on election day - the electorate who votes early isn't going to look much different from the electorate who shows up on election day. As a result, they are modifying their turnout models.

You need very complex data analytics to be able to talk to this level of detail and that takes months of planning. Once you're in the middle of the fight though, it really becomes beneficial letting you make very educated guesses about the kinds of opportunities out there to capitalize on. Read the rest of this post...

Obama campaign going on the air in Georgia, North Dakota -- and Arizona

On a conference call to give the state of the race, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe just announced that the campaign is going on the air in three additional states: Georgia, North Dakota and Arizona. The campaign has organizations on the ground in all of those states and has seen "movement."

In Georgia and North Dakota, the campaign will be running the "Rear view" ad. In Arizona, it's the positive closer.

This is a big development.

Just this morning, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported on the prospect of t.v. adverstising in that state:

The latest polls show the Obama-McCain race to be neck-and-neck —- one poll showed McCain ahead by 1 point, another had him up by 5 but yet another had him down by 3. And while the race for Georgia’s 15 electoral votes is tight, neither side appears to be investing significant cash or resources to win it in the final days. Neither campaign has announced visits by the candidates or their top surrogates. As of Thursday, neither had bought last-minute television advertising here.

And that, Matt Towery believes, is a real mistake for the Obama campaign.

“If the Obama campaign goes on the air with television advertising in this city, in this state, beginning this week to Election Day, Barack Obama will win Georgia,” said Towery, the former Republican state lawmaker and CEO of Atlanta-based InsiderAdvantage. “If he doesn’t go on TV, Obama will lose Georgia. It’s that simple.”

If it's that simple, then the Obama campaign is making a very important move. Also, this can really help Jim Martin defeat that nasty Saxby Chambliss in the Georgia Senate race. So, it's doubly beneficial. In Georgia, the Obama campaign has a strong organization and, according to Plouffe, "early vote is going extremely well."

And, Arizona. Love that. Read the rest of this post...

McCain has to defend Arizona

The polls in Arizona have tightened to the point where John McCain is spending resources into his home state -- and has even planned a campaign stop there on Monday. First, the resources:

Earlier this week, the McCain campaign and the Republican National Committee paid for negative robo-calls in the state, telling voters Obama’s election “invites a major international crisis he will be unprepared to handle alone.

Now, the campaign stop:

Sen. John McCain will be in Prescott on election eve, according to the Yavapai County Republican Party.

He plans to attend the party's annual Victory Rally at approximately 9 p.m. Monday on the historic courthouse plaza. The rally starts at 6 p.m. and typically attracts Republican elected officials from around the state.

Presidential candidates don't go events in their home state before election day unless it's absolutely necessary. Bush and Kerry were still out in battleground states stumping on Election Day in 2004. But, for McCain, it sounds like it is absolutely necessary to campaign in Arizona.

Also, according to CNN, the Obama campaign and MoveOn are taking Arizona seriously, now, too:

MoveOn.org said Thursday it was launching its ‘Obamacan’ ad statewide on broadcast and cable in response. The ad features a life-long Republican who supports Obama.

The Obama campaign sent its supporters in the state a message from national field director Jon Carson calling for volunteers, and pointing to reports McCain was "struggling in his own backyard."

“Supporters like you have put us within striking distance. Now it's time to pull off what no one expected,” said Carson.

This is a major development in the presidential race. McCain's state has become very competitive. But, remember, yesterday on the TODAY Show, NBC's Chuck Todd said Arizona would be a battleground -- in four years. The pundits have to focus on Pennsylvania because the McCain campaign told them to focus on Pennsylvania. Read the rest of this post...

Friday Morning Open Thread

Good morning.

Four days.

This is the last weekend to make change. "Drive for Change." Call for Change. After eight long, painful years, this it it. Let's give it all we've got.

And, it's Halloween. Thanks to Jonathan for sending this picture of his pumpkin:


YES. WE. CAN.

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Global stock markets on target for worst month in history

Of course, history for Republicans today is a much shorter period of time compared to history for the Republicans of yesteryear. Theoretically there could have been worse periods in the market before Jesus walked with dinosaurs but it's not mentioned in the Bible and therefore we just don't know. From Reuters:

Shares in Asia and Europe fell on Friday, heading for their worst month ever, while the low-yielding yen surged as Japan's interest rate cut failed to erase concerns about the deteriorating global economic outlook.

The Bank of Japan joined a global easing cycle by trimming interest rates by 20 basis points to 0.3 percent, but disappointed many who had expected a bigger quarter point cut.

The move followed the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates to 1 percent -- its lowest level since June 2004 -- to stave off a prolonged recession. China, Hong Kong and Taiwan also lowered the cost of borrowing this week, with the euro zone, Australia and Britain seen following suit next week.

However, investors feared a round of rate cuts was not enough to stem the flow of worsening corporate earnings and bolster consumer consumption in major economies which might be already in recession.

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Oh, so now the banks want to talk about credit card debt

Funny how impending doom can change their minds. This remains an industry that is just begging to be regulated. The Republicans were more than happy to give this industry everything they wanted including holding careless credit card holders accountable for eternity but suddenly when the tables are turned, look at who suddenly wants to work with consumer groups. That's great, but let's remember this when the industry is back and starts looking for new ways to hold everyone else accountable for reckless spending.

The next time credit card companies want to send out pre-approved credit cards to 2 year old kids (as happened with a friend) or giving out cards to people who they knew could never make payments, remember who sent the cards in the first place.

Big banks have formed an unusual alliance with consumer advocates to urge the government to allow huge portions of credit card debt to be forgiven, a turnabout from recent years when the banking industry lobbied strenuously to make it harder for consumers to erase their credit card debts in bankruptcy.

The new pilot program — which the banks hope will become permanent — could involve as many as 50,000 people struggling with credit card debt. On an individual basis, the amount of debt to be forgiven would rise according to the severity of the borrower's financial situation, up to a maximum of 40 percent.

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More big names cutting jobs

The credit crisis is reaching well beyond banks on Wall Street and the flow of big names and large cuts are coming almost every day. AmEx, who obviously is very connected to the credit crisis and Motorola are the latest. AmEx has announced 7,000 jobs and Motorola 3,000. Read the rest of this post...

White House defends billions in bailout cash for bank dividends

Talk about spreading the wealth...to the rich.

Lazear and other officials also sought to defend their handling of the bailout so far, responding to reports in The Washington Post that banks receiving money from the Treasury will be allowed to make dividend payments to shareholders and that officials are considering federal guarantees for as much as $600 billion in distressed mortgages.

During a media briefing, Lazear emphasized that the bailout legislation does not bar participating banks from continuing to pay dividends at current levels.

"The law was quite specific on what rules to follow," Lazear said. ". . . We're going to follow the law and make sure there are not abuses, but we want to make sure we get the economy going."

On the overall $700 billion bailout plan, Lazear said: "Taxpayers will not lose significantly on this and may make some money."

Making money remains to be seen but the bigger problem here is not what is legal, but what is acceptable. Giving taxpayer cash to fund dividends is rubbish. That is hardly the reason why we're injecting the cash so to throw legal BS out there does nothing to address the already simmering hostility to the rescue plan. Read the rest of this post...

Exxon sets US profit record - $14.83 billion

Yes, this is who the Republican party wants to help out in every possible way. From CNN:

Exxon Mobil Corp. set a quarterly profit record for a U.S. company Thursday, surging past analyst estimates.

Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500), the leading U.S. oil company, said its third-quarter net profit was $14.83 billion, or $2.86 per share, up from $9.41 billion, or $1.70, a year earlier. That profit included $1.45 billion in special items.

Exxon's prior record was $11.68 billion in the second quarter of 2008.

The company said its revenue totaled $137.7 billion in the third quarter.

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AIG plowing through billions and billions

What a sinkhole. Something is very wrong at AIG and the pie-in-the-sky dreams of big returns were so wrong, but then again, weren't the same Republicans wrong about this entire credit crisis? AIG is going to be a very costly loss for the taxpayers but somehow, the former CEO is still able to sell off a billion dollars worth of stock.

The American International Group is rapidly running through $123 billion in emergency lending provided by the Federal Reserve, raising questions about how a company claiming to be solvent in September could have developed such a big hole by October. Some analysts say at least part of the shortfall must have been there all along, hidden by irregular accounting.

“You don’t just suddenly lose $120 billion overnight,” said Donn Vickrey of Gradient Analytics, an independent securities research firm in Scottsdale, Ariz.

Mr. Vickrey says he believes A.I.G. must have already accumulated tens of billions of dollars worth of losses by mid-September, when it came close to collapse and received an $85 billion emergency line of credit by the Fed. That loan was later supplemented by a $38 billion lending facility.

But losses on that scale do not show up in the company’s financial filings. Instead, A.I.G. replenished its capital by issuing $20 billion in stock and debt in May and reassured investors that it had an ample cushion. It also said that it was making its accounting more precise.

Mr. Vickery and other analysts are examining the company’s disclosures for clues that the cushion was threadbare and that company officials knew they had major losses months before the bailout.

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