Wednesday, October 24, 2012 - 9:54pm

Romney Stands Behind Mourdock

Republican Indiana Senate candidate Richard Mourdock is getting a lot of attention today, but for all the wrong reasons.  In his debate last night, Mourdock was asked about his abortion position and stated that becoming pregnant after rape is "something God intended to happen."  The inflammatory comment went viral in minutes and made the Republican path to Senate control that much more difficult.

Mourdock had a small lead versus Democrat Joe Donnelly for the Senate seat coming into the debate, but that may quickly disappear and give liberals another shot.  This could also spell trouble for Mitt Romney, as the Presidential candidate cut a commercial endorsing Brian Mourdock just a couple days ago.  Romney was quick to distance himself from Mourdock's comment, but stopped short of withdrawing his recent endorsement.

Mitt's in a very tough spot, but considering he has a good chance of becoming President Elect in just a couple weeks, you'd think he would rescind the endorsement and pull the ad immediately.  However, Mitt is standing by his guy and signaled that the commercial would continue to run.  Perhaps this story will blow over in a couple days, but Romney is taking a big risk.  Even a small move in national polls could cost him the election.

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Tuesday, October 23, 2012 - 9:15pm

Debate Poll Recap

While Mitt Romney clearly won the first debate, it's also evident that President Obama won the final two debates.  All three insta-polls from the foreign policy debate last night showed Barack Obama with a dominant victory of 16% on average.  The win followed his 10% margin in the town-hall style debate.  However, they pale in comparison to Governor Romney's total rout of Obama in the first debate.

Going into the first debate, Mr. Obama enjoyed a fairly comfortable 3.2% advantage in the national polls.  After not showing up for the initial contest, Mr. Romney received an incredible bounce to take the lead by roughly 1.7%.  With only five days between the second and third debates, it's difficult to gauge the bounce President Obama gained from winning the second debate, but it appears he picked up about 1%.  This brought the race to a near tie, with Governor Romney holding the slimmest of leads.

I would expect a decent bounce for Obama in the days following this last debate of perhaps 1-2 points.  He showed complete command of the issues, whereas Romney looked lost and unsure of himself.  It wasn't Romney's strong suit, but it's the last debate impression voters will see.  In addition, the key poll from the box above is CBS, which focuses purely on undecided voters.  There Mr. Obama won by an enormous 30 percent.  Viewership may have been lower for the last round, but it was still watched by millions of people.

More importantly, a quick survey by Public Policy Polling (PPP) that focused exclusively on voters in 11 swing states found that Obama won 53-42 percent.  Among independent voters, his advantage grew to a 55-40 percent spread.

It'll be a few days before we see any change in national polls, but I suspect President Obama will claim a 1% lead in the national polls by the weekend.  With an even larger lead in the battleground states, he will re-claim the favorite status going into November.

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Monday, October 22, 2012 - 11:19pm

Who Won the Third Presidential Debate?

Personally, I think this was one of the more boring Presidential debates.  I feel like viewers were changing the channel to the Bears/Lions football game or the Giants/Cardinals playoff game.  Perhaps we were spoiled by the combative nature of the second debate.  In this final debate, President Obama was more aggressive and critical of Governor Romney, while Mitt remained relatively passive.  This doesn't necessarily hurt Mr. Romney as he came across as likeable and civilized, but he did seem lost at times on specific foreign policy matters.

My opinion matters not, so lets focus on the insta-polls and media pundits.  Analysts on CNN, NBC, and most others basically agree that President Obama won "on points", but caveat their remarks with Barack Obama having the luxury of being a sitting president with a daily knowledge of the facts at hand.  In other words, he should've won this debate.  The question is by how much.

The CBS insta-poll of undecided voters is out first and it shows a landslide victory for the President.  In a question of who won, President Obama took 53% and Mitt Romney had 23%.  A full 24% score it a tie.  This was a poll of 521 voters with a margin of error of 4%.

The CNN post-debate instant poll of registered voters across the country showed a closer margin, with President Obama winning at 48% and Mitt Romney at 40%.  This scientific poll differs from the CBS survey in that the voters were not undecided.  The CNN poll is more reflective of national averages since many voters have already made up their mind.

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Sunday, October 21, 2012 - 5:53pm

George McGovern Dies at 90

Best known for losing in a landslide to Richard M. Nixon in the presidential election of 1972, former South Dakota Senator George McGovern has passed away at the age of ninety.  The Air Force veteran with a doctorate in history started his political career as a U.S. Congressman from South Dakota.  He was then elected to the Senate and later became the Democratic nominee for President.

His presidential campaign was marred with resistance and controversy.  Shortly after the final primaries, southern Democrats attempted to thwart his nomination in an "Anybody but McGovern" mantra.  Their efforts did not succeed, as McGovern was officially nominated on July 12, 1972.  With little vetting, he selected Missouri Senator Thomas Eagleton to be his Vice Presidential running mate.  It was quickly discovered that Eagleton had received electroshock therapy for depression.  McGovern supported Eagleton, but eventually accepted his offer to withdraw.  Unfortunately, the damage had been done and he went on to lose the general election to Nixon by 61-37 percent, one of the largest margins in American history.  He lost the electoral college vote by a staggering margin of 520-17.

While Nixon resigned in disgrace less than two years later, McGovern remained in the Senate for eight more years.  After his political life, he sought to curb world hunger and was awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom in 2000 by President Clinton for his efforts.

McGovern's legacy remains as a symbol for the left, especially during the era of the Vietnam War.  He will be remembered as a thoughtful and honest man whose reputation grew into his later years.

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Saturday, October 20, 2012 - 10:15pm

Modest Post-Debate Bounce for Obama

With the exception of Gallup Tracking, most national polls are showing a modest up-tick for Barack Obama.  Even after including Gallup, which looks like an outlier, the President still holds a 1% average rebound from surveys taken before the second debate.  Excluding the outlier, he would average a 2% move higher.  Either way, we can say with some certainty that Mr. Obama has halted Mitt Romney's momentum and that national averages reflect a statistical tie with just seventeen days left until the election.

In general, President Obama fares better in the battleground states than he does in the national polls as he consistently polls higher at the state level.  Therefore, President Obama would have a slight advantage if there's a tie in the national mean.  I'm sure Democrats would feel more relieved if their guy led by the 3.2% margin he enjoyed before the first debate, but he appears to have some wiggle room.

The final debate is set for Monday night, with a focus on foreign policy.  Theoretically, this bodes well for the President as he has the experience and deals with foreign matters every day, whereas Mitt can only research and follow the policy decisions from afar.  However, Mr. Romney performed exceptionally well in the first debate when expectations were low, so don't be surprised if he pulls out another win and claims two out of three victories.  A blow-out win by either candidate could again change these numbers dramatically.

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Friday, October 19, 2012 - 9:40pm

Romney Rising in Wisconsin

A state considered relatively safe for Barack Obama is now in play, as former Governor Mitt Romney has closed the gap substantially in the last few weeks. The latest polls show Mr. Romney pulling within 2-3% in the Badger State, which is also the home of his Vice Presidential running mate, Paul Ryan.  With ten electoral votes at stake, Wisconsin is crucial to the hopes of both candidates.

WISCONSIN

Although President Obama leads in the five polls listed above, all are within the margin of error with the exception of the NBC/Wall Street Journal survey.  Considering how popular Representative Paul Ryan is in the state, it's possible the GOP could pull off the upset on election night.  If they do, it would be a 20-point swing in the electoral college math, which would go a long way to Romney capturing the White House for the Republicans.

If Obama unexpectedly loses the state, he may have to make up for it somewhere else.  With Virginia (13) moving toward Governor Romney, the President would definitely need to win Ohio (18) along with Nevada (6) and Iowa (6) if he lost Wisconsin.

This also assumes Obama cannot pull any upsets on the other side.  At the moment, Colorado (9) appears to be the most likely state to flip from Mr. Romney's win column.  Mr. Obama could also go for the kill with a win in Florida (29).  A victory in the Sunshine State from BHO would practically cinch a second term for the President.  He's currently down by an average of 2.5%, but has led a number of surveys in Florida the last month.  Let's hope it's not too close down there as nobody wants another hanging chad fiasco.

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Thursday, October 18, 2012 - 9:50pm

Senate Leaning Left

With less than three weeks to go, it appears the Senate may remain in Democratic hands.  The no toss-up state math projects 52 seats for the Dems plus 2 Independent seats, one of which that caucuses with the left.  However, these forecasts includes gains for the Democrats in three hotly contested Senate races in Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Arizona and holds in Missouri, Montana, and Wisconsin.  All six races are within the margin of error, so Republicans still have an outside chance of flipping the tables and getting to 50 seats or more.

The Massachusetts election is discussed below, with the incumbent Scott Brown (R) trailing by just a few points.  He could easily overtake Warren (D).  In Connecticut, on the other hand,  Joe Lieberman is retiring and leaving an open seat.  U.S. Representative Chris Murphy (D) has been leading a fairly weak, but wealthy challenger in Linda McMahon (R).  Murphy has consistently led in polls, albeit at a small margin.  Richard Carmona (D) is leading in Arizona over Jeff Flake (R), but it only recently moved into his favor.

Long story short is the Republicans have a shot, but it will be very difficult.  If they can flip these three states, they could force a tie, with Vice President Paul Ryan casting the deciding vote should Mitt Romney win the White House.  This would also assume Maine Independent Angus King sides with the GOP, which is no guarantee by any stretch.  King appears ready to side with the Democrats as the Republican Senatorial Committee is attacking his candidacy.  However, one never knows what Republicans could promise to an Independent Senator King if it gives them full control of Congress.

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Wednesday, October 17, 2012 - 10:02pm

Romney Surges in Gallup Poll

Former Governor Mitt Romney (R) has opened a wide 6-point lead in the latest Gallup Tracking poll.  The seven-day rolling average poll showed him up two on Monday, four on Tuesday, and by a 51-45 advantage today.  The quick increase implies that Romney is even stronger at the back end of the Gallup poll.  While the results are taken entirely before the second debate, it reflects one of the largest leads Mr. Romney has experienced all year and is comfortably outside their margin of error of two percent.  With those kind of numbers, it would be virtually impossible for Barack Obama to win, even in the electoral college.

The question is whether this reflects Romney pulling away from his opponent or whether Gallup is just an outlier?  A collection of national polls released today would suggest the latter.  Rasmussen and IBD/TIPP Tracking show Romney +1 and President Obama +2, respectively.  Taken together, the three firms reflect an average 1.7% lead for Mitt, which is likely a more accurate reflection of the race.

It will take a few days for the President's strong debate performance to be reflected in most of these polls.  With Gallup's methodology, it may taken even longer to see the change.  Since the next debate is Monday, Gallup will be unable to show a full seven day period post debate #2 without including data before or after.  This will make it difficult to assess what bounce, if any, Mr. Obama receives.  Therefore, we will need to rely on other research firms to determine who has the momentum.

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Tuesday, October 16, 2012 - 11:24pm

Obama Hits Back in Debate

A very different Barack Obama showed up tonight in the second debate against Mitt Romney. The President came out swinging against his challenger and gave Democrats exactly what they wanted.  In the same regard, Romney was ready and fired back in a flurry of hostile exchanges.  The two men argued over energy policy, Libya, immigration, tax reform, and a host of other issues during the ninety minutes.

My initial take is that Barack Obama handily won this debate on both style and substance.  While Romney clearly won the first debate and did not make any major mistakes tonight, he did show a lack of respect toward the President during a discussion on gas prices.  He also gave very weak answers on Libya and gun control, while the President gave firm and clear responses.

This debate is not likely to be a game changer, but it may move the needle ever so slightly back to Mr. Obama.  Current national polling shows a statistical tie between the two men as Mr. Romney had narrowed the gap substantially since the first debate.  However, I would expect to see the President regain a small lead of 1-3% before the third and final debate.  The trend should also hold at the electoral projection level, where Romney had taken the lead in many battleground states.

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Monday, October 15, 2012 - 10:04pm

Warren Leading Brown in Mass Senate

Democrat Elizabeth Warren (D) is leading Senator Scott Brown (R) in a contentious battle for the U.S. Senate seat from Massachusetts. Although the race is considered a toss-up, the numbers are moving slightly into Ms. Warren's favor.  The former Harvard law professor is attempting to run up the score with Democratic voters in the extremely liberal state, while the moderate Senator Brown is courting independent voters to his side as Republicans in Massachusetts are an endangered species.

It's amazing that Scott Brown was even able to capture the Senate seat two years ago as a Republican in this state.  He had been up against a weak competitor in Martha Coakley and Democrats generally assumed they'd retain the seat formerly occupied by Ted Kennedy.  This time, Democrats are better prepared and have placed a marginally better candidate in Warren on the ballot. 

However, Warren is a politician with a major problem.  The couldn't-be-any-whiter woman from Oklahoma has pretended to be Native-American for decades to further her career.  Harvard listed her as a minority in the 1980's and 1990's in their faculty directory.  She's also been listed as a minority hire in previous positions.  Warren admitted to listing herself as Native-American, but claimed she was told of her ancestry as a child.  When researched by an independent group, it was discovered that Ms. Warren had no relatives of minority heritage.  She has since refused to release further information on her professional experience.

Mr. Brown has been able to capitalize on Ms. Warren's perceived dishonesty, but it may not be enough.  With liberals running rampant throughout the Commonwealth, she barely needs to win over any independent voters.

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Sunday, October 14, 2012 - 9:54pm

Iowa Slipping Away from Romney

A state considered a toss-up by many analysts is beginning to move slowly into President Obama's win column.  While he leads in Iowa polls by a mere 3.2% average, early voters are coming out in droves to cast a ballot for the incumbent.  The State of Iowa has been open to early voting since late September and already, over 200,000 people have voted.  Among those who have chosen their next President in Iowa, Obama holds a astounding 22% lead.  The advantage may be insurmountable for Mitt Romney to catch come Election Day.  Iowa holds only six electoral votes, but since Barack Obama already has a projected fifty vote electoral lead, Mr. Romney needs as many of the so-called competitive states as possible.

The good news for Romney is that Obama had a 29-point lead over John McCain during the early voting process in Iowa in 2008, so he's been able to narrow that deficit by seven percent this time around.  The bad news is that more people are participating in the early voting process in 2012, which implies the gap should narrow in the direction of polling averages.  In addition, Obama won the state by a comfortable margin of 9.5% four years ago.  If the pattern runs similar to before, Obama should still win, albeit by a smaller margin.

Mr. Romney can definitely win the Presidency without Iowa, but his path becomes more difficult with each state Mr. Obama takes off the table.  He may soon need to decide whether to pull resources out of Iowa and focus on states where he has better odds.  It could make Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Nevada that much more competitive.

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Sunday, October 14, 2012 - 12:46pm

Ohio Polls Keeps BHO Ahead

The latest polling numbers coming out of the State of Ohio show Barack Obama with a thin, but consistent lead over former Massachusetts Governor Willard M. Romney.  Public Policy Polling (PPP) has been the last group in the field and have the President winning by five percent.  Early voting in the state is also breaking heavily to Mr. Obama as he leads by a staggering 76-24 margin, according to PPP.  A full 19% of people have already cast their vote, even though we're still three weeks out from election day.

OHIO

The above data give Mr. Obama a 2.3% average advantage.  However, Ohio is a key state to Mr. Romney's chances of success.  If Romney can't win in that state, he needs to sweep most other competitive states that currently reside in Obama's column.  By the math, he would need Virginia (13), Nevada (6), and Iowa (6), all of which he trails the President.  Iowa would be difficult for Romney as Obama leads by 3.2% and is far ahead in early voting.  All this also presumes that Obama does not win any states currently in Romney's column, including Florida, North Carolina, and Colorado.

In addition, it appears that the Vice Presidential debate may have helped Mr. Obama in Ohio as voters in the state gave Joe Biden the victory over Paul Ryan by a 46-37 percent spread.  Nationally, we saw a mixed bag of who came out ahead, but the opinion of each swing state is far more critical.  Of course, the next Presidential debate on Tuesday could quickly alter the landscape.

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Saturday, October 13, 2012 - 7:57am

Obama Still Holds Electoral Edge

Despite losing his lead in national polls, where Mitt Romney now appears ahead by 1%, Barack Obama would still win the election thanks to the electoral college dynamics.  This map by electionprojection.com demonstrates how each state race will be decided.  By their calculation as of yesterday, Barack Obama will win 294 electoral votes, with Mitt Romney coming in at 244.  With only 270 votes needed, this gives President Obama room to lose a couple more states and still win the election.

Many sites run forecasts on a state-by-state level, but they all show very similar outcomes with Obama as the projected winner.  Mitt Romney must overturn some of the weakest Obama states in light blue in order to win the Presidency.  The six weakest states for BHO are Iowa (6), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), Ohio (18), Pennsylvania (20), and Virginia (13).  By the math, Mitt needs at least two of these states to flip and perhaps more in the next three weeks.  The current RealClearPolitics average gives Obama a lead by 3.2% in Iowa, 1.6% in Nevada, 0.7% in New Hampshire, 1.3% in Ohio, 4.5% in Pennsylvania, and 0.4% in Virginia. 

As Pennsylvania typically votes Democratic and reflects Obama's strongest lead in his weakest states, it would be very difficult for Romney to switch it to his side.  That leaves five competitive states currently in Obama's column, with Virginia and New Hampshire being the most likely to flip.  However, even if those states move to the GOP, Mitt would still come up short. 

Along with Virginia and New Hampshire, Romney would have to win Ohio or both Iowa and Nevada.  It's a tall order, but with all of these within the margin of error, it's entirely possible.  He would need another strong debate performance to further increase his numbers and back up the momentum that he's shown in the last ten days.  Obama still has the edge, but it can change very quickly.

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Wednesday, October 10, 2012 - 10:07pm

Mitt Extends Lead in National Polls

The Romney debate bounce is proving stronger than anyone expected.  Every national poll taken after the debate now shows him tied or in the lead.  Prior to the debate, Barack Obama was leading by 3.2%, but the latest polls show Mitt with an average 1.8% lead.  The five percent shift is the largest post-debate move by any candidate in history.  Even George W. Bush's first debate debacle against Senator John Kerry in 2004 didn't move polls by such a wide margin.  Back then, the polls only narrowed by 2.2%.

The good news for Obama is that two debates remain along with the VP contest.  Vice President Joe Biden and Congressman Paul Ryan take the stage tomorrow night to battle on behalf of their bosses.  While Biden is a seasoned pro at these things, he hasn't debated since 2008 against Sarah Palin and may be a little rusty.  Ryan, on the other hand, is only 42 years old and literally has no experience in national debates.  However, he is a skilled politician who likes to argue the finer points of conservative principles.

The greater point is that Romney's entire bounce is not likely to last.  Much like the Republican and Democratic conventions, the polls will slide back, at least somewhat.  Whether that's enough to put BHO back on top remains to be seen.  Obama still has the lead in many state polls, but that advantage is quickly evaporating.  Mittens now leads in North Carolina and Colorado and is tied in Florida.

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