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Per PECOTA, the Yankees and Orioles are separated by a single game. The top four teams in the AL Central are separated by six games. The Rangers, Astros, and Mariners are separated by three games. The Braves, Mets, and Phillies are separated by four games. The only clear break is in the NL wild-card race, where PECOTA sees a big fall-off from the top tier of Mets, Phillies, and Diamondbacks to the Padres, Cardinals, and Giants.