Home Stand Ends Well; To Charlotte; Charts

Well, this wasn't all that great a home stand for the Bulls, but it did end well. The four-game losing streak was disturbing; however, things seemed to sort themselves out the last two games, even if yesterday was touch and go.

Sunday was the 4th "bullpen day" since April 27. The Bulls have won three of those games, which says a lot about this year's relief crew. Without Yonny Chirinos' complete game shutout on Saturday, I doubt that it would have worked yesterday, though. Statistical trivia. Don't think I've seen two blown saves in one game before.

Sunday was also the seventh extra-inning game the Bulls have played. They won 3 of those games.

The Bulls are four games ahead of Gwinnett in the South, but note that Charlotte's on a streak.

click on chart for larger image

Runs Scored Chart

Net runs scored is one of those interesting stats that we like to track. If you run it through the Pythagorean Expectation formula, it will tell you what the team's won-lost record "should" be. In the Bulls case, this year the PE formula says that the Bulls "should" be at 23-12, exactly where they are. The Knights, who are at 18-17, "should" be at 19-16. The sabermetrics guys seem to think that discrepancies tend to indicate strengths (weaknesses) in relief pitching.

What this chart shows is just how well this year's team is doing compared to previous years, the best since 2013.

Rosterizing

• RHP Yoel Espinal came back from Montgomery and did a fine job last night.
• RHP Ryan Stanek got called up to Tampa Bay and had his big league debut against the Red Sox last night. He faced two batters. One hit. One K.
• RHP Blake Snell is coming back. In my end of year comments last year I said that after Snell's callup in June he would not be back. I was wrong (imagine that!). He hasn't been having a very good year with the Rays (4-0, 8 games, 4.71 ERA, 25 BB in 42 innings). Expect him to be working on very specific tasks, which may or may not help the Bulls when he shows up.

Matchup 

Charlotte's on a roll lately. And they are hitting very well. And they are at home. This could be an interesting series.

Rain in Georgia; Off to Norfolk

The Durham Bulls won two games in Gwinnett to near-empty stadiums, but things were looking up this morning for an education day. Then the clouds opened up and the game was postponed. The Bulls headed off to Norfolk.

They Bulls are doing very well. Ryne Stanek's performance in game two last night was particularly impressive. After the Bulls had come from behind to get ahead by one run, Stanek came on for the 9th. The first two batters got hits and ended up on 2nd and 3rd with no outs. Stanek struck out the next three batters. That could have been a turning point for this young man.

The Bulls are now four games ahead of Gwinnett in the IL South and have the best won-loss record in minor league baseball.

Hitting

Bulls hitters are doing a great job. Their On-Base plus Slugging Percentage (OPS) is well above the IL average and ranks 3rd in the IL.

Rosterizing

• RHP Kyle Winkler went to Extended Spring Training
• RHP Edwin Fierro went back to Montgomery
• RHP Ryan Garton came back from Tampa Bay
• RHP Yonny Chirinos came up from Montgomery and started last night (and won).

Matchup

The Norfolk Tides (Baltimore's Triple-A) are not having a good start this year. This will be the first of 11 games against the Tides, so we will get to know them well before the year is out.

The Durham Bulls in 2016: Part 2 - The Pitchers

Thirty-four different players pitched for the Durham Bulls this year. As a group, they were not a particularly impressive crew. Our previous post set out some of the aggregate numbers. This one will take a look at individuals. In Part 3, we discuss the hitters, in Part 4, the Tampa Bay Rays, and in Part 5, the DBAP.

The 34 pitchers included four position players: Dayron Verona (1 appearance, 1 inning), Cameron Seitzer (2 appearances, 1.2 innings), Jaff Decker (2 appearances, 2 innings), and Mayo Acosta (2 appearances, 2 innings).

For the rest, we'll go over them one by one in order of innings pitched, throwing a few charts in along the way.

Austin Pruitt (right-handed starting pitcher) led the team in innings pitched with 162.2 over 28 appearances. Only one Durham Bull starting pitcher had a winning record, and Pruitt was not him. He ended the year at 8-11 with an ERA of 3.76 and a WHIP of 1.19. Among his fellow International League pitchers he ranked 12th in ERA, 4th in WHIP, 4th in innings pitched, and second in strikeouts with 149. At 4.92 pitches per out, he was one of the more efficient pitchers on the team. Pruitt was drafted by the Rays in 2013, is now 26 years old and has been working his way up through the system. He has no major league time. This was his first year at AAA. [stats]

Justin Marks (left-handed starting pitcher) put in 140 innings in 25 appearances (23 starts, 2 in relief). As with his colleagues, he ended up with a losing won-loss record (7-11). His ERA of 3.86 ranked him 13th in the IL. His WHIP of 1.27 was 11th. His 127 strikeouts ranked him 8th. Innings pitched were 12th. Marks came to the Rays system out of the Arizona system. He has one brief appearance in the majors with the Royals in 2014. Notable this year was his no-hitter on July 16th. He was added to the Rays 40-man roster and called up in early September. [stats]

Jamie Schultz (right-handed starting pitcher) put in 130.2 innings over 27 starts and ended with a record of 5-6. His ERA of 3.58 was 7th in the IL; his WHIP of 1.39 was 20th. His 163 K's were the best in the IL just ahead of teammate Austin Pruitt. Also like Pruitt he was drafted by the Rays in 2013 and has been working his was up through the system. This was his first year at AAA. [stats]

Eddie Gamboa (right-handed starting pitcher) had 94 innings with the Bulls this year. He had a couple of weeks on the disabled list in May. He is the only Bulls starter with a positive won-loss record (6-4). But we must be fair and point out that 3 of those wins (and 1 of the losses) came in relief. If he had had a few more innings, he would have come in 2nd place in the IL with his 2.68 ERA. He certainly had the best ERA among the Bulls starting pitchers. His WHIP of 1.11 would have placed him in third place. Eddie Gamboa is in his 8th year as a professional ballplayer, all as a pitcher and all in the Baltimore system. But only recently has he focused on his knuckleball. We were somewhat surprised to figure out that he was the Bulls' best pitcher this year. That's probably because his appearances were often disfigured by watching the catcher chase down passed balls or wild pitches. We were very pleased to see the Rays bring him up at the end of the IL season. [stats]

Adam Wilk (left-handed starting pitcher) had 15 starts before he went on the disabled list in mid-June. Although he wasn't getting much in the way of run support his WHIP was a decent 1.12 and his ERA (3.63) was OK as well. An 8-year professional, Wilk came to the Bulls will AAA experience in the Detroit, Pittsburg, and LA Angels systems, with a few moments of major league time with Detroit and the Angels. In keeping with a well-established Durham Bulls/Tampa Bay Rays tradition, we have no idea why he went on the DL or what's happened to him since then. [stats]

Jacob Faria (RHSP) came up to the Bulls from Montgomery just after the midseason (essentially when Wilk went on the DL). He showed considerable promise in his 13 starts and 67.2 innings with the Bulls (he had 14 starts and 83.1 innings with AA Montgomery). His ERA as a Bull was decent at 3.72 and his WHIP of 1.15 was OK as well. His 4.84 pitches per out were the most efficient of any of the Bulls starting pitchers (and the second best on the team). This was his first experience at AAA but he's the only pitcher on the Rays 40-man who did not get a September call-up. Likely the Rays thought that 151 total innings was enough. [stats]

Blake Snell (LHSP) started the year with the Bulls after coming up from Montgomery for eight games at the end of 2015. In his 12 games and 63 innings with the Bulls he carried a 3.29 ERA, a WHIP of 1.33, and a promising FIP of 2.60. He went up to the Rays for one game in April and went up to stay in mid-June. He won't be back. [stats]

ERAs and FIPs

Sorted by number of innings pitched
Click on chart for larger image

Parker Markel (right-handed reliever) led the relief crew in innings pitched. He had 5 games with the Bulls in 2015, started 2016 with Montgomery, came up in mid-May and didn't go back. He picked up 5 wins in relief over 34 appearances and 60.2 innings. With the notable exception of Dana Eveland, his ERA of 2.52 was the best on the team. He is a product of the Rays' system and he'll likely start with the Bulls or with the Rays next year. [stats]

Dylan Floro (right-handed reliever) was a starter all of 2015. The Rays decided to convert him to a relief pitcher this year and the move seemed to be reasonably successful. With the Bulls,  he got in 50 innings in 32 appearances with an excellent ERA of 2.88, 5 holds, and 7 saves (2 blown saves). He went up to the Rays in early July and came back to the Bulls in late August. He had two appearances and then went on the disabled list. No reasons were given. (See Adam Wilk above). [stats]

Neil Wagner (right-handed relief pitcher) started the year with the Charlotte Stone Crabs. Coming off surgery he actually had a pretty good year in some ways. He was the best of the Durham relievers with runners on base. Of the 15 who were on base when he came on, only 3 scored. On the other hand, he only finished 43 innings in 38 appearances, which is pretty short relief. A couple of short, but poor outings, balooned up his ERA and it stuck there most of the year finishing at 4.81. And he had to work awfully hard for his outs, averaged 6.07 pitches per out, one of the worst ratings on the team. At 32 years old he was in direct competition with Dana Eveland as the oldest player on the team. He brought a lot of experience to the Bulls. He's played in the Cleveland, Oakland, San Diego, and Toronto systems. He was out for all of 2015 and 2016 was his testing year. Numbers probably do not describe his worth to the Rays. Hard to guess if he will return. [stats]

Adam Kolarek was that extreme rarity for the Bulls this year, a left-handed reliever. Until late in the year, he was the Bulls' only lefty in the bullpen. He did a decent job with a nice ERA of 3.05 in his 34 appearances and 41.1 innings. Kolarek came over to the Rays system from the Mets in 2015. He started 2016 with Montgomery. He came up to the Bulls in early May, went back in mid-July, came back in early August and stayed. On the year he had 47 appearances. With a WHIP of 1.23, I'd guess he's in good shape for next year. [stats]

WHIP

Tyler Sturdevant (right-handed reliever) is a puzzle to me. He started the year with the Bulls, went up to the Rays in mid-May, came back for three appearances in late June, then returned the the Rays. Came back in July for 14 games, back to the Rays, back to the Bulls in last August for 4 appearances, then called back up at the end of the season. As a Bull, 34 appearances, 39.1 innings, undistinguished ERA of 3.66, WHIP of 1.30. He had 16 appearances with the Rays prior to September. My only real problem was his 5 blown saves. The Bulls could hardly afford that this year. The 30-year-old Sturdevant came up through the Cleveland system and this was his first season in the majors, so maybe the back-and-forth makes sense. [stats]
[Update: Designated for Assignment 9/11/16]

Danny Farquhar (righty reliever) went back a forth a lot. With the Bulls, he had 32 appearances for 38 innings and did just fine with an ERA of 3.32 and a WHIP of 1.11. He was also one of the more efficient of the Bulls pitchers with a 5.02 pitches-per-out rating. Farquhar has time with the Toronto, Yankees, Oakland, and Seattle systems and 26 appearances this year (as of 9/10/2016) with the Rays. My guess would be that his return next year depends entirely on his relationship with the Rays. He may decide that he should be a full-time major leaguer. [stats]

Mark Sappington (righty reliever) is a young (25) reliever who started with Angels, played all of 2015 with Montgomery and made his AAA debut with the Bulls this year April. He appeared in 29 games for 37 innings with an ERA of 4.86 and a WHIP of 1.68. Not very good. He was sent to Montgomery in late June, where he finished out his year with 13 more appearances. His ERA there was 7.80 and his WHIP was 2.13. I'm not sure he has a future in professional baseball. But I've been wrong before. [stats]

Steve Geltz (righty reliever) split time between the Rays and the Bulls this year, doing much better as a Bull (ERA-3.03, WHIP-1.32) than as a Ray (ERA-6.65, WHIP-1.39). Geltz started out in the Angels system and came over to the Rays in 2013. He did a terrific job for the Bulls that year and in 2014. He spent all of 2015 with the Rays to decent numbers. I'm not sure that his return to Durham this year was because of performance or because he was a Ray "with  options" that was easy to move back and forth. He was called back up at the end of September. [stats]

Matt Andriese (right-handed starting pitcher). Andriese started his career with the Padres, but he joined the Rays system in  2014 with the Bulls and has made a bunch of appearances in a Bulls uniform (72) as both a starter and reliever in 2014, 2015, and 2016. This year he started 6 games, went up to Tampa Bay, and never came back. He did just fine as a Bull (ERA-3.41, WHIP-1.14), not so good with the Rays. He's still just 26 years old. But the Rays have never seemed to be able to figure out if they want him to be a starting pitcher or a reliever. [stats]

Ryan Garton (right-handed reliever) has only five years as a pro; however, he essentially split his year between Durham and St. Petersberg. He had 32 innings as a Bull and 32 innings as a Ray. His numbers as a Bull were just fine, an ERA of 3.09 and a WHIP of 1.28. He did work harder than most with 5.99 pitches per out. It would seem that he has a fine future with the Rays, but we'll likely keep on seeing him as long as he has options left. [stats]

Dana Eveland (left-handed reliever) is the very definition of "well-traveled veteran." We have to point out, however, that his time with the Bulls was extraordinary: 20 games, 29.2 innings, ERA of 0.30, WHIP of 0.74. Eveland started his career with the Milwaukee system and has been with Arizona, Oakland, Toronto, Pittsburg, the Dodgers, Baltimore, Mets, Boston, and Atlanta. He began 2016 with the Rays and came to the Bulls in late June, back to the Rays, then to the Bulls to stay in mid-July. We liked him a lot. But he probably won't be back. [stats]
[Update 9/12/16: He was added to 40-man and called up to Rays on 9/11/16]

Ryne Stanek (right-handed reliever) had been a starting pitcher all of his very brief career with the Rays, until the middle of this year. He came to the Bulls right after the 4th of July and he simply wasn't very good over his 16 appearances and 24.1 innings. Will he be good? Probably. And it's fun, at first, to watch a guy throw in the high 90's. But an ERA of 5.92 doesn't auger well. He did fine with runners on base — of 9 inherited, none scored. He'll surely be back next spring. [stats]

Pitches Per Out

A home-grown measure of pitching efficiency

Alex Cobb (right-handed starter) joined the Bulls for 4 rehabilitation appearances (15 innings). I'd like to complain about how that punched a hole in the Bulls' rotation and caused other problems. However, by the time he showed up in August the Bulls were already doomed. He spent parts of 2011 and 2012 with the Bulls and we wish him only the best in his continued recovery.

Casey Coleman (righty reliever) only got into 11 games. When he was signed in mid-July I was hoping the at least a bit of the good old days of the Rays being really smart about discovering talent. But then Coleman went on the DL after just 6 appearances. Overall, for his 14 innings, he did OK. And ERA of 3.86 and WHIP of 1.29, but the sample size is a problem. At 28 he's seen time with the Cubs, Royals, and Mariners. A maybe for next year. [stats]

Loose Ends —

• Jhan Marinez, one of our favorites from 2015, made just 6 appearances (8 innings) before being called up to the Rays. When they designated him for assignment, the Brewers grabbed him and he's had a pretty good year in Milwaukee. [stats]
• Kyle McPherson (righty reliever) started with the Bulls, made 5 appearances. His Wikipedia page reports that he was released on 5/24/16. [stats]
• Andrew Bellatti (right-handed reliever) started the season with the Bulls and made 6 appearances for 5.1 innings. He went on the disabled list in May, was DFA'd in June and may be out of baseball now.
• Chih-Wei Hu (right-handed starter) made a spot start for the Bulls on April 23 and went back to Montgomery. He's had a pretty good year with the Biscuits: 2.59 ERA over 142 innings. [stats]
• Brad Schreiber (righty reliever) came up from the Charlotte Stone Crabs to two relief appearances at the end of June. It was his first time at AAA. [stats]
• Greg Harris (right-handed starting pitcher) made his Triple-A debut on September 3, coming up from the Charlotte Stone Crabs. [stats]
• Ryan Webb (right-handed reliever) made three rehab appearances in mid-June, but was then released. [stats]
• Brad Boxberger (right-handed reliever) put in 1.2 innings in two rehab appearances in May.
• Kyle Winkler (right-handed reliever) came up from Montgomery for one appearance on July 9, pitched 1.1 innings, and got a win before going back to Montgomery.

Updates 9/12/16: See Eveland (called up) and Sturdevant (DFA'd)

Bulls Having Decent Home Stand

Charlotte inches back into first place

Game 136, Sunday, 28 August, Durham Bulls Athletic Park
Gwinnett Braves: 6
Durham Bulls: 10
Season: 59-77; Home Stand: 2-1; Games Left in Season: 8
Wrap, Box, Herald-Sun

Stats:
Game Score: Faria 29; Season 52 (12 starts, 60.2 innings)
Tm OPS: Game 1.086; Season .679; Difference .407

Jacob Faria's very shaky start was more than compensated for by Bulls' hitting and superb relief. Everyone but Jake Hager got at least one hit. Casey Gillaspie and Dayron Varona hit home runs. Richie Shaffer's line drive off the wall was one of his rare hits this year that looked like last year. Curt Casali may have just had the one hit, but he may have quietly sorted himself out. His wOBA is up to .372 since coming down from Tampa Bay.

I'm not at all ready to eat my words regarding Ryne Stanek, but it's only fair to point out that he got yesterday's win while pitching two clean innings.

Two recent returnees pitched yesterday. Casey Coleman, who went on the disabled list after an emergency appendectomy, is back and pitched for the last two outs of the 5th. Tyler Sturdevant, who was up and back to the Rays, pitched the 9th.

Should you noticed Dana Eveland's numbers? He started the season with the Rays, but has been with the Bulls since the All-Star break. In that time he's had 16 appearances, pitched 22 innings, and has a stellar ERA of just 0.38 and a WHIP of just 0.79. To put it a little differently, he's given up just one hit, a home run back on July 14th! The teams who passed on him when he was DFA'd back in early July must be regretting it.

Outside the game —

• The International League South remains in turmoil. As we noted several days ago, it appears to be Charlotte's to lose, although Gwinnett obviously has a shot at it. Charlotte closes out the season with three games against Louisville, three against Norfolk, and two against Gwinnett. Gwinnett stays in the South with three against Norfolk, three against the Bulls, and the two against Charlotte.
• After one inning with Tampa Bay, Steve Geltz is coming back.
• For a playoff circumstance that's truly weird, our colleague over in Montgomery, Alabama (one of the three minor league fan bloggers I know of) has just pointed out that a team can get into the Southern League playoffs by losing a game.

Blown Out in Charlotte

Game 131, Tuesday, 23 August, BB&T Ballpark, Charlotte, NC
Durham Bulls (Rays): 2
Charlotte Knights (White Sox): 3
10 innings
Wrap, Box
Stats:
Game Score: Faria 63; Season Avg 54 (11 starts, 56.1 innings)
Tm OPS: Game .680; Season .674; Diff .006

Game 132, Wednesday, 24 August, BB&T Ballpark, Charlotte
Durham Bulls (Tampa Bay Rays): 5
Charlotte Knights (Chicago White Sox): 6
Wrap, Box
Stats:
Game Score: Marks 48; Season 52 (21 starts, 121.1 innings)
Tm OPS: Game .773; Season .674; Diff .099

Game 133, Thursday, 25 August, BB&T Ballpark, Charlotte, NC
Durham Bulls: 7
Charlotte Knights: 12
Wrap, Box
Stats:
Game Score: Schultz 19; Season Avg 53 (26 starts, 126.2 innings)
Tm OPS: Game .819; Season .676; Diff .143

In this visit to Charlotte, the Durham Bulls managed to play themselves out of contention for the South Division championship.[standings] Could they play themselves back in? Only if the Knights and Gwinnett really stumble. The Bulls have six games with second place Gwinnett (currently on the three-game winning streak), two with Norfolk, and three with one of the best teams in the IL, the Columbus Clippers. Simply not very likely.

This visit to Charlotte was their big chance but the pitching crew, which had been a strength of this team, blew it. Neil Wagner could not hold on to a lead on Tuesday. The decision to move Ryan Stanek to a reliever role looks ever more questionable as on Wednesday he recorded his third blown save and 4th loss in relief since the All-Star break. And last night it was starter Jamie Schultz' turn as he gave up a grand slam in the second inning and left the game before the inning was out.

The hitters, for a change, did just fine. Just not enough to hold up the pitching crew.

Why then go to any of the eight remaining home games?

As a Bulls fan, not many reasons at all. As a baseball fan, however, all the usual reasons are still there: a chance to see a well-turned double play; a perfectly executed throw from under the Monster to second base; a stolen base; a home run; a nasty curve ball; a diving catch in center field; a cup of beer; a hot dog.

Outside the game —

• Patrick Kinas in back from Rio and in the booth. Doesn't seem to have lost a step.
• Ryan Garton is back from Tampa Bay.
• Tyler Sturdevant went back up.
• Richie Shaffer coming back. He got a grand total of 7 ABs while there. 2 hits, 1 walk, 3 K's, and scored a run.
• Manager Jared Sandberg was ejected for the 6th time this year, in Wednesday's game.
• The Charlotte Observer, which used to cover the Knights very nicely, is not any more.
• Not that different from Raleigh's N&O which has foregone next morning coverage altogether in the last few weeks.

Gee, I sound awfully grumpy, don't I?

A Lengthy Loss

Game 122, 14 August, DBAP
Charlotte Knights: 4
Durham Bulls: 3
13 innings
Season: 54-68; Home Stand: 1-2; Home Games Remaining: 11
Wrap, Box, Herald-Sun

Stats:
Game Score: Pruitt 57; Season Avg 55 (24 starts, 140.1 innings)
Tm OPS: Game .606; Season .671, Diff -.065

The night started by honoring a large contingent of fellows from the Negro leagues. Great to see them at the game. All of the Bulls wore 42, remembering Jackie Robinson. Nice start of the game. And the whole game was mostly fun, until the end.

I'll confess that I left the game at the 8th inning when the Bulls and Knights were tied at 3-3, listened to the radio on the way home, and saw the last several innings on TV (enduring an unfortunate bit of nattering about the Village People).

Overall, the Bulls pitching crew was superb, with one notable exception. However, so was the Knights' crew. Beginning with the 8th inning, the Bulls went through their batting order three times against three pitchers and only got three hits, a single by Gillaspie in the 8th, a single by Motter in the 10th, and a single by Goebbert in the 12th.

It came down to the 13th inning and a pitcher who does not seem to be ready for AAA, Ryne Stanek. He throws really, really hard. He often hits 98 and has reported to have been over 100. Durham's catcher, Curt Casali had never caught him before last night's appearance. That unfamiliarity might account for some of the inning's problems. Nevertheless, after a hit, passed ball and a couple of walks, Stanek wild-pitched the winning run across. The Herald-Sun had this from the manager:

"He's a young kid with a power arm," Bulls manager Jared Sandberg said. "Just a little off. We were talking today about his approach. He's missed a lot of balls up with the fastball sailing on him. He's trying to get his fastball command a little better."

When Stanek arrived from Montgomery he was in the midst of a conversion from starter to reliever. He's had 10 games in relief with the Bulls, but has not been much help to the team. Too soon?

At bat the Bulls were certainly impatient last night, drawing just  1 walk in 48 opportunities. Thanks to Jake Goebbert for keeping the Bulls in the game with a big home run in the 7th.

About the South Division and the Playoffs

Here's the deal. The competition within the South Division is a bit bizarre. The "best" team in the division, Gwinnett, is 12 games below .500 with a 28-36 record. The worst team in the division, Norfolk is 17 games below .500 with a 29-34 record. They also happen to hold the worst record in the International League. However, Norfolk is only 2 games behind Gwinnett. Any one of these teams could win the South Division. [standings]

This makes the next three games for the Bulls all the more interesting. You see, the first International League playoff games are the South playing the West and the North playing the Wild Card. No South team has even the remotest chance at the wild card, so it's safe to say that the only playoff team from the South will be the South champion playing the West champion. The current West leader is the Cleveland farm team, the Clippers, who have an 8-game lead. The Bulls play them tonight and five more times before the season's over, three games starting today and three home games at the end of August. The Bulls have been to Columbus once before this year, losing two out of three in May.

Thus, these games with Columbus could be playoff previews, assuming the Bulls can win a few more games against Norfolk, Gwinnett, and Charlotte.

This chart shows the IL South since the All-Star Break.

Roadkill

Game 117, August 9, McCoy Stadium, Pawtucket, Rhode Island
Durham Bulls (Tampa Bay): 1
Pawtucket Red Sox (Boston): 3
Wrap, Box
Stats:
Game Score: Pruitt 50; Season Avg 55 (23 starts, 133.1 innings)
Tm OPS: Game .486; Season .668; Diff -.182

Game 118, August 10, McCoy Stadium
Durham Bulls: 4
Pawtucket Red Sox: 5
Wrap, Box
Stats:
Game Score: Cobb (Rehab Start) 22
Tm OPS: Game .658; Season .668; Diff -.010

Game 119, August 11, McCoy Stadium, Pawtucket, Rhode Island
Durham Bulls: 5
Pawtucket Red Sox: 6
Season: 53-66; Trip: 0-3; Games Remaining: 25; Home Games Remaining: 14
Wrap, Box
Stats:
Game Score: Faria 65; Season Avg 51 (9 starts, 44 innings)
Tm OPS: Game .822; Season .669; Diff +.153

Coming into the bottom of the 8th inning today things were looking pretty good. The Bulls had a 2 run lead.  Big arm Kyle Stanek had had a 3 up/3 down 7th inning. But then — walk, out, out, home run, walk, home run, and the PawSox have a 2-run lead.

In the top of the 9th, the Bulls loaded the bases, and a walk scored a run. But the game ended with the Bulls a run behind and the bases still loaded.

It was something of a change for the light-hitting Bulls to lose a game because of poor pitching, but that was the reason in game 119. Otherwise, the PawSox thoroughly dominated the Bulls.

Changes:

Rehabbing Matt Duffy went to the Rays. He didn't look too happy to be with either the Bulls or the Rays, although someone did get a major leaguer's batting helmet to him. Based on the unfairly small sample, the Giants (who got Matt Moore out of the deal) certainly got the better end of the trade. Two for 11 in 3 games.

Alec Sole, who didn't get a hit in his three games with the Bulls, was sent to Montgomery when Daniel Robertson came off the DL. Robertson was hit by pitch today and left the game. Hope he's OK. Rehabbing Alex Cobb is with the team for at least one more outing. He had a couple of ugly innings in game 118 (and lost the game). Richie Shaffer is reportedly coming back. He was in 3 games with the Rays and had a single and a double in 6 at bats.

A 14 Inning Win

Game 105, July 27, Durham Bulls Athletic Park
Toledo Mud Hens: 4
Durham Bulls: 5
14 innings
Season: 47-58; Home Stand: 2-0
Wrap, Box, Herald-Sun

Stats:
Game Score: Marks 58; Season Avg 52 (16 starts, 91 innings, 50% "quality starts")
Tm wOBA: Game .281; Season .299; Diff -.018

The longest game of the year ended in a very satisfying victory with a clear-cut hero in Jaff Decker. First, his 3-run homer in the bottom of the 9th tied the game. Then he bunted for a single in the 14th. Got moved to second base on a Hank Conger sacrifice. Then scored for the walk-off win on a beautiful Daniel Robertson hit down the right field line. Robertson got the ice dump, as he should have.

Before that 9th inning home run, we were regretting the decision for Justin Marks to come out for the 7th inning. Up to that point, the Bulls were ahead 1-0. We did note, however, that the Mud Hens were hitting a lot of deep fly balls, 8 so far in the game. After a walk, a deep fly ball got over the wall and that put the Mud Hens ahead. It wasn't until then that the Bulls even had a reliever warming up.

Rhyne Stanek had his worst appearance of the year. Two runs were added. The rain started falling. I went home and turned on the TV in time to see Decker's heroics.

I'm liking young Casey Gillaspie more and more. It seems odd to me to find a player who plays only first base, but he does a good job of it and he gets on base, a lot. Given the differences in their appearances and games played, you have to think it's very odd that he and Jaff Decker lead in a lot of statistical categories. They are 1 and 2 for both on-base percentage and OPS. Decker's been in 72 games, Gillaspie in just 10. Gillaspie had a double and a walk last night. Richie Shaffer, by the way, had three walks in his 6 plate appearances.

Outside the game —

• Ryan Garton came off the DL to pitch in last night's game.
• Casey Coleman went on the DL.
• Melvin (the shortstop formerly known as BJ) Upton is now with the Toronto Blue Jays and back in the American League East. Fondly remembered as "E6" for those of us who sat on the first base side of the field during the three years (2004-2006) he spent time with the Bulls. During those years he committed 111 errors, earning his nickname. On the other hand, he was also just about the most gifted pure athlete to wear a Bulls uniform for an extended period of time.
• We mentioned all the trade talk. Here's an example from Rays Index. There's lots more.

Another Comeback Win

Game 98, July 19, Frontier Field, Rochester, New York
Durham Bulls: 7
Rochester Red Wings: 6
10 innings
Season: 44-54; Trip: 4-2
Wrap, Box, Rochester Democrat & Chronicle

Stats:
Game Score: Gamboa 68; Season Avg 54 (7 starts, 26 innings)
Tm wOBA: Game .289; Season .296; Diff -.007

Eddie Gamboa had his second terrific start in a row, thoroughly baffling the Red Wings lineup. Plus the offense put together 6 runs on mostly small ball. In the dugout after six innings, he should have been chalking up his sixth win. Dana Eveland had a nice, clean 7th inning. Then there was a truly awful beginning of the 8th. The Red Wings scored 5 runs off of Steve Geltz to tie it up.

No fan just watching from the stands or on TV can do anything more  than just speculate, but this is Mr. Geltz' second visit back from Tampa Bay and he's not doing well at all. On yesterday's 1/3 of an inning his ERA ballooned from 3.31 to 5.94. More than that, he just doesn't look confident on the mound.

New guy Casey Coleman came on to get out of that inning and the 9th. In the 10th a walk and a single (Casey Gillaspie and Richie Shaffer) led to a pitching change. After Jaff Decker K'd, a bit of shakiness on the part of the pitcher/catcher combination led to a passed ball and set up Dayron Varona's second RBI.

Then new guy Ryne Stanek simply blew away the Red Wings in the bottom of the 10th. The Red Wing announcers were called the fastball speeds and they were 97-98 mph most of the time and one was 100. A very impressive young man.

Outside the game —

• Nick Franklin is coming back. In yet another example of how little I understand Rays' decision-making. Here's a guy who has played in 4 different positions for the Rays over 19 games and a holds a .836 OPS. And they are sending him back?  Happy to have him. But looks foolish on the Rays part. 
• Early morning game today. 11:05.

The Durham Bulls at the All Star Break - Part 3 - Pitchers and Hitters

Pitchers

The Bulls have seen 31 different players on the mound this season.  Three were position players. Several have been called up. Some have come back. Others have been released. They have 13 on the roster, but that's a moving target. We charted 12 of the current crew and included Adam Wilk, who is currently on the disabled list. Not included are Ryan Stanek, Casey Coleman, Kyle Winkler, and Dana Eveland because they have very few innings and/or their roster status isn't clear. Also note that Jacob Faria, who is on the chart, only has 15 innings in Triple-A. Overall, as was noted in our previous post, the pitching crew is doing OK.

ERA/FIP

The stats geeks don't like ERA for lots of reasons. So here's a chart with both ERA and FIP (Fielding Independent Percentage). In general, FIP seems better for a short-term look and ERA for a longer term. This chart is sorted by FIP. We have a sample size problem (few innings) with a couple of the guys. Nevertheless, the bottom four pitchers, which include a starter and three relievers, are not having good years, the rest are OK.

click on chart for larger view

WHIP

Walks/Hits per Inning Pitched, interestingly, sorts out with the same four pitchers on the bottom.

Pitches per Out

This is a home-brewed stat that basically highlights just how hard a pitcher has to work to get an out. Again, the same four pitchers— Steve Geltz, Neil Wagner, Mark Sappington, and Justin Marks—are at the bottom.

Hitters

Coming to the plate so far this year we've seen 21 different Durham Bulls. We've charted 14 of them, but admit that it could be a moving target. A catcher, Hank Conger, is on his way from Tampa Bay. Kyle Roller, who was in 50 games this year, has been released. Cameron Seitzer and Mayo Acosta are on and off the roster. Juniel Querecuto is with Montgomery at the moment.

This is not a very impressive crew this year. We pointed out the team stats in a previous post. The individual stats show only 4 with positive wRAAs and one of those, Johnny Field is on the disabled list. It's worth noting that all but two have now gotten above the "Mendoza Line" (.200) in their batting averages. However, when watching a game it's hard to get your hopes up when any of these guys come to the plate.

From a fan's perspective, we have to say that the players who have been the most fun to watch were Jaff Decker, Dayon Varona, and Taylor Motter. We have hopes that Jake Goebbert and J.P. Arencibia will catch some breaks. We think Luke Maile is breaking out, but he or J.P. Arencibia is likely to be called up today or tomorrow. Richie Shaffer is helping the team a lot, the best wRAA of them all. It just seems like he is working so hard, for less return than hoped for.

Name	Age	PA	AVG	OPS	wRAA	wOBA
Jaff Decker	26	264	.233	.733	4.1	.338
Johnny Field	24	116	.250	.751	1.7	.337
Richie Shaffer	25	351	.250	.729	5.0	.336
Dayron Varona	28	304	.235	.718	0.8	.321
Daniel Robertson	22	340	.254	.664	-2.2	.309
Jake Goebbert	28	242	.214	.653	-2.8	.302
Luke Maile	25	214	.242	.650	-2.7	.301
Eury Perez	26	50	.239	.626	-1.1	.288
J.P. Arencibia	30	162	.221	.623	-4.2	.283
Jake Hager	23	111	.245	.609	-3.4	.277
Juniel Querecuto	23	100	.228	.587	-3.8	.267
Taylor Motter	26	179	.202	.585	-7.1	.265
Cameron Seitzer	26	140	.176	.419	-12.3	.201
Mayo Acosta	28	46	.091	.200	-7.7	.094

Fireworks (Not by Bulls) at the DBAP

Game 86, July 4, Durham Bulls Athletic Park, Durham,North Carolina
Syracuse Chiefs (Washington Nationals): 9
Durham Bulls (Tampa Bay Rays): 2
Season: 37-49; Home Stand: 0-1
Wrap, Box, Herald Sun

Stats:
Game Score: Shultz 56; Season Avg 55 (17 starts, 86.1 innings)
Tm OPS: Game .397; Season .651; Diff -.254
Tm wOBA: Game .193; Season .294; Diff -.101
[See note below]

Pretty ugly pitching and hitting, but the weather was fine and a big crowd saw the fireworks ... after the game.

Reliable Jamie Schultz did quite well. Mark Sappington and Neil Wagner were awful. After their appearances, the Bulls bullpen was essentially empty, although Parker Markel, Steve Geltz, and first baseman Cameron Seitzer filled in for a couple of innings.

The crew was limited to just three hits.

Outside the game —

• Taylor Motter is back. He's a fun player to watch. Just wish his bat would come back to 2015 levels.
• Starting pitcher Ryne Stanek is coming up from Montgomery. This will be his Triple-A debut, but the exact date hasn't been announced. Stats.
• Tyler Sturdevant has been called back to Tampa Bay.
• Outfielder Johnny Field has gone on the disabled list.

Note on Stats —

• Game Score gives you a sense of how the starting pitcher did in a game. A game score of 50 is a "quality start". In this case, Jamie Schultz had a quality start and is having an above average season.
• The Team OPS for this game was well below the team's season OPS, which is the worst in the International League. Not a good game at all.
• The stats geeks think that wOBA is a much better measure of individual performance than OPS. I like it. But no site I've found tracks wOBA for either  a team or a league, so these are my computations. After 86 games the Bulls are just at .294. An individual player with a wOBA of .300 is considered a "poor" player. A .320 wOBA is considered average.