Showing posts with label South Ossetia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label South Ossetia. Show all posts

Wednesday, August 13, 2008

The Gaffe in Georgia's Gamble


World leaders were celebrating peace, unity and sportsmanship at the grand opening ceremonies of the 2008 Beijing Olympics, but deceit and betrayal were foremost in their minds. In the remote Eastern European state of South Ossetia, sinister plots were initiated as the world's attention was focused on the games; conducted by the minions of treachery and orchestrated by the congenital aggressors masquerading as defenders of human rights and democratic ideals. This duplicity wasted many lives and brought untold suffering to thousands more, but the unspeakable intent threatens to create tensions beyond the intensity of post war conflicts, that may cause irreparable damage to the fragile fabric of peace.

Georgia President Mikheil Saakashvili ordered an attack on South Ossetia last August 7, in a bid to retake the largely independent but internationally unrecognized state. Georgian forces, trained and equipped by America, were ferried from their posts in Iraq by US ships - where they were given battle experience - to form the Georgian frontline. The attack elicited a response from Russian troops stationed in South Ossetia, whose presence as peacekeepers was ordained in 1992 by Edward Shevarnadze, and who subsequently assumed Georgia's Presidency in 1995. At the time, Abkhazia and South Ossetia were embroiled in widespread inter-ethnic violence and wars; with Russian support, both regions achieved de facto independence from Georgia.

The South Ossetians are hostile towards the government of Georgia, where differences in language, culture, and way of life are wide and deep. Their long violent history against Geogia reached its tipping point in 1989, and since then, tensions have always been at fever pitch. In 2004, Georgia under Saakashvili reasserted its authority in the southwestern autonomous Republic of Ajaria. This success encouraged Georgia to intensify efforts at taking back South Ossetia; but with Russia's open assistance, the effort failed. South Ossetians have embraced Russia and have been issued passports as Russian citizens. The attack therefore on South Ossetia on August 7, gave Russia the moral authority and obligation to intervene not just as peacekeepers - but to defend its citizens from hostile acts of war and annexation - and to cripple the enemy's capability to launch another offensive.

It is believed that Georgia would not behave so audaciously without the blessings of the west and its benefactor the United States. The Georgian military was strengthened through a series of reforms after the Rose Revolution, which deposed Shevarnadze in 2003 and elected Saakashvili as President. Of its 45,000 strong force, 12,000 were trained and equipped by America and fielded in Iraq as part of the coalition forces. But these forces were no match for the Russian presence which destroyed Georgia's military hardware and facilities in the 5 day battle; and severely weakened the morale of its soldiers. More than this, President Saakashvili may have lost all credibility in reasserting Georgian power in this Eastern European enclave.

Mikheil Saakashvili and his western backers grossly misjudged Russia's response to this aggression, and miscalculated the extent of the very thorough trashing of its forces and military equipment. He overplayed a weak position to begin with by attacking "Russian citizens", hoping the shadow of the US-NATO alliance would bluff Russia to acquiesce. He was dead wrong. He also failed to read the mindset of Russia's leaders where since the Orange Revolution in Ukraine resulting in that state's alliance with the west, Moscow made preparations to strengthen its political structures and systems - expecting this event to be exported to Russian soil. Moscow also saw fit to deem Ukraine and Georgia as hostile influences.

The West's response was to call a halt to "Russian Aggression" and flashed news of "1,500 deaths as Russia Bombs Georgia". The biased and slanted reporting and delicate formulation of stories creates impressions of Russia as the one taking the offensive. Photos of a burning apartment block that was missed by a bomb targeted for a military facility adds credence to the slant. But no photos of the devastation of South Ossetia's capital has been shown. The orchestration of the media has long been prepared by the west for this act of aggression, but the results on the ground are a lot different from what they expected. Russia rightly delayed accepting the ceasefire until they were in a stronger position from where they could dictate the terms. The US-Nato ploy has backfired.

Russia was very displeased when the US-Nato supported and recognized Kosovo's declaration of independence a few months back. The west celebrated the right of Albanians to declare their freedom and seek their own path of development away from Serbia. This event was in the back of Moscow's mind, and it bolstered its own argument for intervention in South Ossetia by using the wests's policy of allowing smaller ethnic groups to declare their freedom from a larger state, where ethnic differences and a long history of violent conflicts have no possibility of merging or consolidating as one. In addition, Russia sees the series of interventions by the west as encirclement of its own country, with the alignment of Ukraine, Georgia and Kosovo to the west, as well as the pincer approach to Iran from Afghanistan and Iraq - effectively cutting off the Caspian Sea - where oil supplies from the middle east by-pass Russia.

The US-Nato combine can move to expel Russia as a peacekeeper because it is a participant in the conflict, and acted as an aggressor. Moscow can counter that it did its job as peacekeeper by pushing back the real aggressor into the former boundaries prior to the conflict. If that fails, Russia can always claim to have defended its citizens from attack. The end game may result in a diplomatic stalemate but Russia has won this exchange. It has effectively demolished the Georgian military whose backers are still fighting on two fronts and cannot afford to antagonize a positioned bear ready to strike. Russia has also weakened Saakashvili, whose opponents may demand his resignation for the heavy price they'll have to pay for this mis-adventure.

The US-NATO combine will certainly pull back and limit themselves to diplomatic sound bytes on peace and liberty in an attempt to picture Russia as a hegemonist - then will scheme at a later date to orchestrate another offensive - all in the name of democracy and the western way of life. When in fact, it's oil that has always been the issue, and the control of supplies and reserves globally; to the point of waging war and induce savage acts of cruelty on hapless populations, all in the name of freedom, human rights and democratic ideals.

Haaarrrwwwwwk...Twoooooooph...Ting!