"Help is on the way"

Some of us may remember a few months ago The Advocate published a friendly profile of Scott Angelle's time in Washington as Trump's top safety deregulator in the Interior Department. Mark Ballard' article described Angelle as an "impactful political warrior" who may "enrage environmentalists" but is really just an aw-shucksy family man trying to do the things he believes are right.

What are those things again? 

While attention has been focused on President Trump’s disputed decision in January to reverse drilling restrictions in nearly all United States coastal waters, the administration has also pursued a rollback of Obama-era regulations in the Gulf. Those rules include safety measures put in place after the explosion and sinking of the Deepwater Horizon rig in 2010, a disaster that killed 11 people and resulted in the largest marine oil spill in drilling history.

Smaller oil and gas companies, many backed by Wall Street and private equity firms, say they need the relief to survive financially, and the top safety official at the Interior Department appointed by Mr. Trump has appeared an enthusiastic ally.

“Help is on the way, help is on the way,” the official, Scott Angelle, said in September at a gathering in Lafayette, La., of oil and gas executives from so-called independent companies, which focus on drilling alone rather than the extended drilling-to-gas-station operations of bigger competitors.

But an analysis of federal inspection data by The New York Times found that several of the independent companies seeking the rollback, including Energy XXI, had been cited for workplace safety violations in recent years at a rate much higher than the industry average. Their offshore platforms suffer in some cases from years of poor maintenance, as well as equipment failures or metal fatigue on aging devices, records show.

Good looking out, Scott.  You sure do know your constituency. 

Scott Angelle is sinking to new heights

Last month, the Advocate published a friendly profile of former Louisiana Public Service Commissioner and failed gubernatorial/congressional candidate Scott Angelle.  Angelle has recently landed a new job which he enjoys very much.

Once a ubiquitous presence on the Louisiana political scene, Angelle arrived in D.C. in May to become director of the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement. It’s a job historically held by an unknown bureaucrat with an office in the massive U.S. Department of Interior building, three blocks from the White House.

But President Donald Trump is pushing American “energy dominance” as a cornerstone of his presidency. This puts Angelle at the president’s shoulder for enabling domestic fossil fuels production.

In October, the Trump administration proposed opening nearly 77 million acres in the Gulf of Mexico — the largest offering in U.S. history — for oil and gas drilling. The lease sales are scheduled for March.

On Nov. 28, the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement approved energy exploration in the Arctic.

And just before the Christmas holiday, Angelle’s office suspended as duplicative a study meant to improve how regulators enforce safety on offshore rigs in the wake of the 2010 Deepwater Horizon explosion that killed 11 and spilled an estimated 3.2 million barrels of oil 40 miles off the coast of Louisiana.

All this activity has enraged environmentalists, but it falls in line with Angelle’s beliefs.

“This is a really, really impactful job for America, and it’s really important to Louisiana’s economy,” said Angelle, who previously oversaw oilfield activity in Louisiana as secretary of the Department of Natural Resources under two governors.

Scott Angelle has "enraged environmentalists"? That doesn't seem right.  Don't they remember the major environmental award he received in 2011? Or does the Louisiana Mid-Continent Oil and Gas Association's "Blue Heron Award" not speak for itself? 

Aaron Viles, deputy director of the Gulf Restoration Network, questioned whether it is ever appropriate for an association to give an award to someone who oversees the regulation of its members.

"Mid Continent giving an environmental award to Scott Angelle is like GE giving a nuclear safety award to the leadership of Fukushima Prefecture," Viles said.

But Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, who handed out the award, said in a statement that "Scott has been a warrior for our people and our coast."

So harsh! Those rage-prone environmentalists sure do hate "energy dominance," I guess. As does this judge, apparently.

In a blistering new ruling, a state district judge criticized three companies for putting "economic interests over environmental and safety concerns" in operations that led to the formation of the 2012 Bayou Corne sinkhole, blaming longtime salt mining operator Texas Brine, Occidental Chemical and Vulcan Materials for the flawed underground mine that sparked the giant hole in the Louisiana swamp.

At the very least, he hates salt dominance, anyway.  The case against the companies includes a paper trail of memos and emails demonstrating the parties were aware of the environmental hazards associated with creating the mine but moved forward anyway because, as the judge put it, "each party was blinded by the financial implications of their actions.”  One such hazard they ignored was this oil well.

Salt caverns are often filled with highly concentrated brine when they are closed. Like the air in a balloon, the brine helps maintain a shut cavern's supporting salt structure against geologic forces that naturally press down on the underground cavity.

Kliebert accepted the Texas Brine expert's theory that an oil formation, depleted and depressurized from the old well, was tied into the cavern due to fractures in the thin salt wall. The oil formation provided a place for leaking brine to go that otherwise would not exist so deep underground.

But sometimes you have to push through that stuff.  Ignoring safety hazards in the hope of wriggling out of your share of the blame later is just how Louisiana does business.  Angelle knows. He resigned from the Department of Natural Resources at just the right time, after all.  That's exactly the sort of presence of mind it takes to win you a cushy job in the Trump Administration doing the Energy Dominance... not to mention the Blue Heron Awards you pick up along the way. Very prestigious.

Congratulations

President Trump, as expected, is dumping the Paris accord on climate change. Or maybe he's working on a better "deal." Here are his inspiring words.

Therefore, in order to fulfill my solemn duty to protect America and its citizens, the United States will withdraw from the Paris climate accord — Thank you. Thank you. But begin negotiations to re-enter either the Paris accord or really entirely new transaction on terms that are fair to the United States, its its businesses, its workers, its people, its taxpayers, so we're getting out but we will start to negotiate and we will see if we can make a deal that's fair. If we can, that's great. And if we can't, that's fine.

Today is the first day of Hurricane Season.  Every passing season in South Louisiana finds residents  more vulnerable to storm driven flooding as the land sinks into the rising sea. Both of these phenomena are direct results of fossil fuel development.  The Paris agreement is an imperfect but important step toward global cooperation in solving this crisis. Much more needs to be done and quickly.  Trump's action today only retards that critical process. The world, and especially Louisiana, can't afford this delay.

So congratulations to Trump for this.  Congratulations also to Future Governor Jeff Landry who heartily endorsed Trump's decision today in language, improbably, less coherent than Trump's.  And congratulations to  Wanted To Be Governor Scott Angelle who just took a job helping Trump to "empower the offshore oil and gas industry"

Breaux Bridge native Scott Angelle, who served eight years as Louisiana Department of Natural Resources secretary and four as a member of the state Public Service Commission, has been named director of the federal Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement, the agency that oversees offshore oil and gas safety. "Scott Angelle brings a wealth of experience to BSEE, having spent many years working for the safe and efficient energy production of both Louisiana's and our country's offshore resources,"  Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke said in announcing the appointment on Monday (May 22).

"As we set our path towards energy dominance, I am confident that Scott has the expertise, vision and the leadership necessary to effectively enhance our program, and to promote the safe and environmentally responsible exploration, development and production of our country's offshore oil and gas resources," Zinke said.

Said Angelle: "I welcome the opportunity to serve President Trump and Secretary Zinke, and work with BSEE staff to meet the critical goal of energy dominance for our country. It is an exciting and challenging time for BSEE. I look forward to leading our efforts to empower the offshore oil and gas industry while ensuring safe and environmentally responsible operations."

Way to go, guys. Thank you for putting America and Louisiana first.

It's a major award

Congratulations to Scott Angelle.

This week, the Trump administration appointed him as new director of the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement, part of the Department of the Interior and the office created after the 2010 BP oil spill to oversee offshore drilling safety. The appointment does not require Senate approval.

Angelle is the second electoral also-ran to land a job in the administration; he'll be joining former U.S. Rep. John Fleming of Minden, who lost out in the 2016 Senate race. Fleming works at the Department of Health and Human Services.

In a statement, Angelle made it clear he continues to see the industry as ally, not adversary.

“It is an exciting and challenging time for BSEE; I look forward to leading our efforts to empower the offshore oil and gas industry while ensuring safe and environmentally responsible operations,” Angelle said.

Sounds like he'll fit right in.  Not that there should have been any doubt that Angelle would be qualified to "empower" the oil and gas industry vis-a-vis environmental regulation.  He probably just in his Blue Heron award in lieu of a resume. 

Probably got crowded out by Joe Cao

Scott Angelle decides to run for Boustany's congressional seat rather than David Vitter's soon to be empty Senate seat. He promises to (possibly) not make things worse.

"Time and time again, when things get bad, the politicians in Washington rush in and make it worse! It's time we make them listen," he said in a statement announcing his plans.

So that's pretty bold. Not sure Scott can live up to that.

Meanwhile, what is David Vitter up to these days, anyway? 

Calling Mayor Mitch Landrieu and Sheriff Marlin Gusman "incredibly naive," Sen. David Vitter, R-La., excoriated them Thursday (March 3) over their decisions to enforce "sanctuary city" policies for undocumented immigrants in New Orleans.

"I do not need to remind you that New Orleans is struggling with a devastatingly high murder and violent crime rate," Vitter wrote in a letter addressed to the pair. "Providing incentive for undocumented criminals to flock to the city is a huge mistake and I hope you will immediately reverse this policy."

Vitter's letter was prompted by Landrieu's recent decision to order the New Orleans Police Department to not cooperate with federal immigration officers in civil raids* or to ask crime victims questions about their immigration status.

Oh there he is taking the Trumpist line that all immigrants are dangerous criminals.  That's nice. Unlike Trump, though, Vitter isn't actually running for anything so can we reasonably assume this outrageous statement is close what the man actually believes?  Not expecting any "Miss me?" Vitter ads any time soon. 

Mitch is not gonna run for Senate

Mitch Landrieu has all sorts of options for life as a former mayor.  He can become President Hillary Clinton's first ever National Resilience Czar or some such.  He can go to work for any number of consulting groups or think-tanks promoting neo-liberal urban policies all over the country.  He can take up permanent residence on the cot backstage at Aspen. Closer to home, he sit on one of the tourism promotion boards or, knowing him, create a new one all his own to chair.

Any of these options should prove at least as lucrative and certainly a heck of a lot easier than becoming a US Senator. He says he doesn't want to do it. But that won't stop pollsters from throwing his name in with every survey between now and the final day of qualifying.

Although Mitch Landrieu told LaPolitics last week he’s not interesting in running for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by David Vitter, a new statewide poll shows the Democratic New Orleans mayor ahead of four Republican candidates who have either announced a run or are expected to.

The survey, conducted by Gulf Breeze, Florida-based Market Research Insight on Dec. 2-4 with 600 likely voters, shows Landrieu leading the pack with 30% of support. Trailing him are Republicans Scott Angelle at 24%, Charles Boustany and John Kennedy at 15% each, and John Fleming at 5%. The other 11% of respondents say they’re undecided.

Everybody dreads Vitty

Everybody hates David Vitter. On the occasions when they aren't also in debt to or afraid of him, they will come out and tell you so. Otherwise, they fall in line.

It was really interesting on Saturday night, watching which Louisiana Republicans made sure to show up at the Vitter after-party to pay tribute.  Congressman Charles Boustany, for example, who very much would appreciate Vitter's blessing to run for his Senate seat should Vitter become Governor was the first one in the room. State Treasurer John Kennedy who enjoys a brand among fanboys in the media as a "principled independent" also made an extra special effort to be seen on camera at the Vitter party. I wonder what sort of favor he's trading.

I hope the Treasurer would have the presence of mind to keep the receipt.  Many have found out the hard way that Vitter is not always to be trusted.

If history is a guide, expect Vitter in particular to be a barroom brawler. In each of his races, he has run against something — former Gov. Edwin Edwards and the state Democratic Party when he won elections to the state House in the 1990s; the past and the status quo when he defeated former Republican Gov. David Treen in a special congressional election in 1999; and Washington and national Democrats in his two Senate victories.

This time, as Vitter showed Saturday, he will be running against “the politicians in Baton Rouge,” even though Jindal is a Republican and Republicans hold majorities in the state House and Senate.

John Treen has never forgiven Vitter for his unrelenting attacks against his brother in that 1999 election, after Vitter and David Treen, at Vitter’s initiative, agreed not to attack each other. Keeping that deal was important for Treen, who was known among Democrats and Republicans alike for his honest and honorable approach to politics.

Vitter, however, went on the attack, according to John Treen and two others who were part of that campaign, in fliers with different messages to white and black voters that the Treen campaign found far outside the bounds of fair play.

“To distort my brother’s record, I thought, was despicable,” John Treen said, adding that his brother, who died in 2009, never fully recovered emotionally from the defeat. “The idea that someone made a deal and broke his word got to him.”

In other words, "David Vitter killed my brother!"  Holy crap, John.  People really do not like David Vitter. Treen is far from the only person with these kinds of hard feelings.

But he's also out of politics and doesn't really have anything to lose or to trade.  These guys, on the other hand... 

During the primary, Vitter and a super PAC allied with him savaged his two Republican rivals — Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle and Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne — with attack ads. Both men cried foul.

“Sen. Pinocchio,” Angelle called Vitter.

The opening image on the Dardenne campaign’s website Sunday morning continued to consist of the words “SENATOR LIAR” stamped over a grainy photo of Vitter. “The more David Vitter spends on television ads the less truth they contain,” reads the opening line of the top link on the Dardenne website.

Angelle and Dardenne obviously are in position to help tip the scales of this election now. Despite their strong language during the primary, and despite the obvious fact that the two of them, like most humans, can't stand David Vitter, it isn't clear what, if anything they're actually going to do.

Dardenne has already said during one of the debates that he will not make an endorsement in the runoff.  On election night, Angelle told supporters, "You will hear from me again."  On the surface that looks like Dardenne is abstaining and Angelle might come out and attack Vitter some more. The horse trading game is funny, though. Yesterday, on the parallel internet, Lamar shared this quote from one of the great treatises on Louisiana politics, A.J. Liebling's Earl of Louisiana. 

It is unusual for a candidate to win first time around, and if one does he arouses a certain amount of resentment as a spoilsport. After the first primary, each beaten candidate and his backers trade off their support to one of the two men who are still alive, in exchange for what he will bind himself to do for them in the way of legislation, patronage or simple commercial advantage. Naturally, the runoff candidate who looks more likely to win can buy support at lower political prices than the other fellow, but by trying to drive too hard a bargain he may send the business to the underdog. Many a man has beaten himself that way. A Louisiana politician can't afford to let his animosities carry him away, and still less his principles, although there is seldom difficulty in that department.

Everybody may hate Vitty.  But he's made a career out of making sure that they, at least, fear him.

The Breakfast Club

It was supposed to be such a bummer.  This evening, on WWLTV's  6:00 newscast, Clancy Dubos told us that, sadly, turnout in these elections is not expected to be much better than 40 or 45 percent. It's a statewide election with an open governor's seat.  How could this be? Clancy and Ron Faucheux frowned at us and lamented that "the tone" of the campaign has been bad and that the candidates have failed to "inspire" people.

Later, on Informed Sources, Errol Laborde told us the lack of interest might actually be a good sign. You see, according to Errol, if a lot of people are coming out to vote, that usually means something is wrong and voters are angry at the candidates. People voting makes Errol uncomfortable. Anyway, according to these pundits, the problem with turnout is either voters are not "inspired" enough by the candidates or they are far too happy with them.

All of that is nonsense, of course.  Voter apathy is up for a combination of the following reasons. First, the domination of TV advertising by SuperPAC money has "nationalized" the narrative of what should be a campaign about Louisiana. Voters are bombarded with cookie cutter type ads designed to appeal to (mostly) conservative voters in any state.  "Dardenne/Edwards/Angelle is an Obama liberal"  "David Vitter likes puppies" One ad said John Young is "like Hillary Clinton" because he also uses email... or something. In any case, the majority of the paid media aimed at voters tells them none of this stuff has much of anything to do with them.

Add to that the raft of mainstream pundits insisting that there are no significant policy differences among any of the candidates. I was surprised to hear Stephanie Grace say precisely that on Informed Sources tonight since, if you read her columns (and ignore their headlines) you'll see she clearly understands where they differ. She's not the only one who does this. In fact, she's far from the worst offender in this regard. But the effect of all of this is that even voters who pay at least some attention to the news probably have been given the very misleading impression that their vote doesn't make much of a difference.

And yet there was everyone on TV tonight scratching their heads trying to get at this problem of low turnout.  Jeremy Alford said he thinks voters are "burned out on politics." I think he may have been projecting a little bit there. Which is probably not good for someone who writes about politics for a living.

We here at the Yellow Blog have tried to spend what time we've had this election highlighting the actual policy differences between the candidates since the mainstream pundits have not done so.  It's incredibly frustrating since our primary source on all of this is just.. you know.. their own papers which we know they must read also. I had intended to make this the topic of tonight's Election Eve post. But I'll have to come back to that later because it's starting to look like one of the camapaigns has suddenly hauled off and "inspired" some people tonight.

It all started Friday morning, as Jefferson Parish Sheriff Newell Normand convened his regular coffee klatch at the Royal Blend cafe in Old Metairie. At some point, the group’s gossip shifted abruptly from the latest news about Donald Trump to a furtive young man seated at a nearby table.

He was filming the group, the sheriff said. “He was acting very strange and odd,” Normand said in an interview.

Normand confronted the young man, asking him what he was doing.

“Are you filming me?” the sheriff demanded.

I don't want to the ruin the beauty of this narrative. But to save time, yes, the kid was filming them. Why? Because David Vitter had hired him to. Why would he do that?  Well, now, that's where the fun begins.

First, here are the members of Newell's gossip group... or as the Advocate terms them, the "breakfast club." 

The sheriff’s breakfast club, composed of several regulars who come and go, continued chatting for a time, the sheriff said. Among the others at the table were Danny DeNoux, a local private investigator; John Cummings, a prominent local attorney; and Danny Martiny, the state senator who also works as an attorney for the Jefferson Parish Sheriff’s Office

So let's see.. Newell is definitely Emilio Estevez. Cummings is probably Anthony Michael Hall.  Let's say Martiny is played by Ally Sheedy.  Can't really say who Molly Ringwold is in this cast but Vitter's spook is most definitely Judd Nelson.

Only at some point he sorta morphs into Ferris Bueller.

Frenzel darted from the Metairie Road cafe toward St. Francis Xavier School, making his way toward Vincent Avenue, the sheriff said.

The man jumped the gate of an abandoned residence, prompting Normand to call several deputies to the scene to search for him, the sheriff said.

“Five deputies searched the backyards,” Normand said. “He trespassed through at least three or four properties.”

Frenzel eventually was found hiding behind an air-conditioning unit in the 100 block of Stella Street and taken into custody. He was booked on one count of criminal mischief, a misdemeanor, and was released Friday evening, the sheriff said.

Anyway, it's not clear just which Breakfast Clubber Vitter's PI was actually stalking.  His campaign said later that he was following a "John Bel Edwards business associate and major donor" which can only mean Cummings. There's reason to buy that. But there's also reason to believe Sheriff Normand was a target as well.. even if he seems a bit baffled by it himself. 

Normand, who faces token opposition in his re-election bid for sheriff Saturday and had publicly flirted with a bid for governor, is a longtime political enemy of Vitter.

“What do I have to do with the governor’s race? Everybody knows I endorsed (Lt. Gov.) Jay Dardenne,” Normand said. “Everybody at that table is very upset with this. I didn’t know we had become the state of Russia.”

“Everybody does opposition research,” the sheriff added, “but quite frankly, I’m not the opposition.”

 Here's a picture of Newell looking not at all Kruschev-like as he addresses an audience very far away from "the state of Russia."



Anyway, the trail here, unsurprisingly leads back to our friend Jason and his investigation into Vitter's long simmering prostitution scandals. The Jefferson Parish deputies who arrested Frenzel today say they found a "dossier" on Jason in Frenzel's car. It is more than likely the PI was surveiling Jason and his sources. Why did the trail lead him out to the Old Metry Breakfast Club? No one can say just yet. But there are hints.

Oyster provides us with one here in an old post he linked back to tonight about "dark secrets" about David Vitter supposedly held by Normand's predecessor, the late Harry Lee.

Assuming Lee did again threaten "to reveal dark secrets" about Vitter in 2002, do you think he would he have done so without having solid evidence? Would he just bluff, and make some cryptic but vague remarks about Vitter's "moral fitness", OR did the Sheriff have "proof" in his backpocket about Vitter's "nameless sins"? Did Lee even know about Vitter's "New Orleans stories", or perhaps did Lee know about a different "Metairie story" that took place under his own jurisdiction? And if Lee did have solid evidence, why did he back down at the last minute in 1999 when Vitter ran against David Treen for U.S. Rep? And why didn't Lee make threats in 2004, when the GOP cleared the way for Vitter's Senatorial campaign?

Vitter is practically daring the press to find "hard evidence" of him whoring in New Orleans. The conventional wisdom is that Sen. Vitter will survive unless some evidence beyond the testimony of hookers is revealed. One wonders: what evidence, if any, is Harry Lee sitting on-- and why?

The suggestion is that Normand and pals still have access to this "evidence" once held by his old boss. And that it is evidence Jason may very well be trying to produce. This is from the AZ post about the new Wendy Ellis revelations. 

It is very important to her, and very important to me, that the identity of the child remain anonymous and I realize that it would be the one foolproof way to corroborate her story but I believe it can be corroborated by other means than putting the child's well being at risk.  I do know more about the adoption and I personally believe the information she provided in this interview to be true.

Finally, remember that shrill TV reporter Vitter supposedly had fired for asking about the prostitutes? He's on Twitter tonight publishing things people email to him.

BREAKING: @DavidVitter PI arrested for illegally recording Jeff Sheriff. Is this why Sheriff was being followed? pic.twitter.com/qH6QWsdnCT

— Derek Myers (@DerekTVNews) October 24, 2015

Oddly enough, after everything that's happened, we seem to have landed on "Where's the birth certificate?"

It's all very amusing... and sleazy.. and "colorful" if you will. But it's also pretty sickening.  If these and some of the other stories flying around about Vitter (and yes the rumor mill gets even worse than what all of this might indicate) are true he's not only a moral hypocrite, but also someone who has allowed his hypocrisy and ambition to harm many others in frightful ways. It would be... um... bad if he became Governor.

But we already knew that, didn't we? (Not so fast, Times-Picayune.) What I mean is, we already knew.. or should have known.. that elections are about more than the personal character of the individual candidates.  They're are popular referenda  on competing programs for the future of the state.  It's not enough to just elect "Anybody But Vitter."  The point is to elect Somebody but Vitter. And despite what our failed MSM opinion-makers would have us believe,our choice of who that somebody ends up being really does matter.

Like I said earlier, I had planned to make those press failures the theme of this post but the Vitter stuff kind of exploded on us so, instead, here is a short version of what we have learned following these candidates. There are key differences in the sorts of programs each would enact. The most clear distinction is between John Bel Edwards and his Republican opponents. At least on the issues the candidates have been asked about, here is how Edwards is different from the other three.

1) Edwards will immediately accept the Medicaid expansion associated with the Affordable Care Act. Jindal has cost the state hundreds of millions of dollars tilting at that windmill. The other Republicans say they are open to accepting the money but when asked about it adopt Jindal's baseless rhetoric about waivers and exceptions in case the law somehow ends up not saying what it says. Edwards won't waffle like this. He'll just do what Jindal should have done years ago.

2) Edwards supports a raise in the minimum wage. During a recent debate, Jay Dardenne asserted a common right wing idiocy about minimum wage raises leading to unemployment. Angelle and Vitter are similarly hostile. Angelle, in fact, makes a point of talking about how he's going to make welfare recipients work harder to "pull the wagon" which is a line he also adopted from Jindal.  Dardenne and Angelle are openly and irrationally hostile to the working poor. Edwards's stance on Medicaid and minimum wage stands in stark contrast to them here.

3) Edwards is the only candidate to have expressed at least some middling support for legal action against the oil and gas industry over coastal loss. Dardenne, Vitter, and.. especially Angelle are made of oil money.

There are several other issues, particularly where it relates to the state budget where, although the candidates sound similar, I would argue that Edwards is more likely to do the responsible thing. In the final debate, for example, he said he would "cap and sunset" all of the special tax credit programs that have blown a huge hole in the budget over the past decade. None of the other candidates has stated this as strongly.

Edwards is still a pretty conservative guy. He's a military dude. His whole family is made up of sheriffs. He's pro-gun and anti-choice. There's a lot not to like. But on several very substantive questions that the next Governor will face, he's head and shoulders above the rest of those clowns.

And yet, with a few exceptions it has felt to me this year like I have been among a very slim minority of commenters in non-traditional media even talking about any of this. I have long believed that the potential of citizen-driven media lies in the opportunity it affords us to shift the narrative away from the superficial, bought off, or burnt out focus of commercial press and place it back on the actual consequences of politics for ordinary people.

This is an election whose outcome will have serious consequences. It's an election that Edwards can win if he ends up facing Vitter in the runoff. This is why it matters that we pay attention to how, when, and why, events occur which affect whether or not that happens.  That is, if we give a shit. Apparently some of us do not.

Berry is highly critical of the senator's support for the social-conservative Louisiana Family Forum, which opposes abortion and same-sex marriage, and he spent nearly half a decade chasing down leads about Vitter's alleged dalliances—all of which ended in dead-ends. "I don't give a shit what the candidates are doing," he says. "I don't give a shit about the election. I've been working on this story since 2010."

How very noble. Of course, I appreciate that what Jason means here is that his reporting is not simply hack work on behalf of any campaign.  I fully respect the integrity of what he's doing. But this doesn't absolve him of the responsibility to pay attention to the way it affects and is affected by the campaigns. 

The tip on the Ellis story came from an opposition researcher, who Berry says was not affiliated with a specific campaign, although he couldn't say for sure what the individual's motive was. The researcher "just found her for me and said, 'Hey do you want to talk to her? I've got her. Hey do you want to call her? I've got her number.' I'm not denying that." From there, Berry says he coaxed Ellis into talking. He chose the questions. He decided to pull the trigger.

Again, here is where Jason will correctly point out that he has to take this opportunity to talk to Ellis. But we can't just dismiss the reasons why she's all of a sudden available to him.  Remember there's a lot of money and information floating around that isn't technically "affiliated with a specific campaign" if it's funded by a PAC.. or... shared between PACs. 

A Democratic-affiliated PAC that was set up to target U.S. Sen. David Vitter in the Louisiana governor's race gave money to a PAC set up to support Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne, a Republican, earlier this month.

Campaign finance reports show that Gumbo PAC donated $5,000 on Sept. 14 to the Now or Never PAC, which spends money to support Dardenne.  Gumbo PAC is run by Trey Ourso, the former executive director of the Louisiana Democratic Party.

In spite of its Democratic political ties, Gumbo PAC describes itself as a group supporting "anybody but Vitter" in the governor's race. Dardenne is also actively courting Democratic voters in his gubernatorial bid. As a Republican, Dardenne claims he has a better shot of beating Vitter statewide than does state Rep. John Bel Edwards, the only major Democratic candidate running in the race.

That $5,000 donation was later explained to a reporter as having paid for "research." It could be anything. I'm not saying that this specific transaction has anything to do with Ellis suddenly becoming available to talk. But clearly the person who got the lead for Jason was funded somehow.  Also, probably meaningless, but remember $5,000 is the price Ellis claims she charged Vitter to keep her as an "exclusive" client during their relationship.

Anyway, the point is parties are making this information known now.. before the primary happens.. specifically because they don't want Vitter in the runoff. Which necessarily means the parties undertaking these transactions prefer one of the other Republicans to John Bel Edwards. I know there is some subtlety involved in coaxing information out of these sources but I still have to point out that aiding them in timing this story just so is tantamount to working to elect a Republican governor.

It's still a great story, and I hope it was worth it. I hope when this is over we never have to put up with David Vitter and his slimy smirk ever again. But as someone who does, in fact, "give a shit" about the result of this election.. as we all should... I do hope we have him to kick around for just a few more weeks.

Who is panicking now?

The Hayride's pollster has Gomer all the way up to 40% That seems a bit much. Looks to me like they've either lost track of or purposefully reassigned a big chunk of undecideds.  I'd have a hard time believing that 4.3%  (down from 15% in one month!) is a raw number.



If you read the post at the Hayride, you'll see they're already blaming Dardenne and Angelle for failing to decide which one of them should have dropped out months ago.  The real problem, though, is everybody hates Vitter... when they're not afraid of him anyway.  And the more vulnerable he looks as a candidate, well, the less afraid people become.

But as Vitter's weakness becomes more and evident, you'll notice some of the folks relying on him becoming Governor are beginning to panic. Yesterday we mentioned Phyllis Taylor's wavering, for instance.

It's unclear why Taylor has started giving money to Angelle's PAC over the past few months, while not contributing to Vitter's recently. A call to the Patrick F. Taylor Foundation in search of Taylor was not returned on Tuesday (Oct. 20).

But of the four major gubernatorial candidates, Angelle has made the strongest statements about keeping the TOPS program very similar to the way it operates now. The other candidates have been more willing to talk about tweaking TOPS, such that the scholarship would not necessarily cover the entire cost of college tuition in the future.

This doesn't have anything to do with TOPS.  Taylor's foundation is one of many conduits through which oil money is piped into the Louisiana political process.  And right now, since "Big Oil's Boy" David Vitter looks like he's in trouble, that money is looking for somewhere more productive to go.

Why such urgency? Because the oil companies have come to view the attack on Vitter as a direct assault on them.  Only a few days ago, BP's Head of State and Local Government Affairs speaking at a business luncheon said that lawsuits, not falling prices, are "the biggest threat to the oil and gas industry" in Louisiana. 

The constant threat of a potential lawsuit has dampened industrial growth in the state, especially in the Houma-Thibodaux area, Ellis said. He said small businesses may not hire more people and delay plans to add new equipment or projects out of fear of a lawsuit. 

“I believe in the legal system; I believe in its fairness and impartiality. I don't believe in a system that measures justice based on the depths of your pockets,” Ellis said, citing a 2013 U.S. Chamber of Commerce report that ranked Louisiana 49th among lawsuit climates. “The oil and gas industry in Louisiana...are threatened not as much by the decline in oil prices and market prices as they are by the attitude that some have that the industry's deep pockets make for good lawsuits.”

Tyler Bridges corroborates this somewhat writing in the Washington Post this week that "trial lawyers" have been out to get Vitter from the beginning.

But this year, as he has pursued his gubernatorial bid, a Baton Rouge law firm has spent $1.6 million to broadcast television ads — using video clips and shots of sensational headlines — to remind voters of the scandal.

The trial lawyers behind the ads want to defeat Vitter because he has promised to kill lawsuits filed by the firm that accuse oil and gas companies of polluting land and aquifers throughout the state, as well as destroying coastal wetlands.

John Bel Edwards is the only candidate who has expressed at least some middling degree of support for legal action against the oil industry.  If Vitter can't protect them, it looks like Big Oil is gonna need another boy.

Luckily they've got plenty of those laying around.  For example, Phyllis Taylor's new favorite.

But Angelle, who used to be a Democrat, is trying to appeal to moderates in that party. Angelle is a social conservative, who said he switched parties primarily because national Democrats weren't backing up the oil and gas industry like they should have.

Angelle has close ties to the oil and gas industry. He majored in petroleum land management at the University of Louisiana–Lafayette. As the head of the Department of Natural Resources, he helped regulate the oil and gas industry for the Blanco and Jindal administrations.

Angelle sits on the Sunoco Logistics board of directors, for which he gets paid almost $390,000 – as long as he attends all of the meetings – according to federal filings. U.S. Sen. David Vitter's campaign has called foul on that relationship, implying Angelle used his positions in state government to get the board post. 

Angelle said he has not been involved in regulating the company while sitting on its board. If elected governor, he said he would step down from the position.

Oilman and gas CE0 James Flores has also donated $1.25 million to Angelle's affiliated PAC, called Louisiana Rising. Flores' mega-donation has raised some eyebrows.

It's a bit late in the game, but some of these money people are starting to realize just how damaged David Vitter is.  If he makes it to the runoff there is a very good chance Edwards can actually win.  And even though Edwards is himself a fairly moderate to friendly figure toward oil and gas, the industry would nonetheless interpret this as a disaster. So now they are pulling out all the stops to get a stronger horse into the runoff.

And this is why I found it telling that Angelle was the candidate pushing Dambala's hooker investigation during the debate this week. The trial lawyers may have started the ball rolling with this but, in a fun bit of irony, it looks like having the scandal catch fire in the final week before the primary is the oil industry's best hope to ensure it has a candidate in the runoff who can win.

If Vitter makes it anyway, take a look at whether the scandal stays in play.  The Edwards campaign really hasn't mentioned it all. If it stays on the airwaves, it will have to come from somebody's PAC.  But whose?

Big Oil's boy?

They're all Big Oil's boy. 

Campaign finance documents show Taylor contributed $50,000 to Louisiana Rising super PAC, which supports Angelle, on Sept. 15. She had previously given the PAC $5,000 back in May, making her contribution to Angelle's election efforts $55,000 overall.

This is a bit odd, since Taylor had been a big supporter of U.S. Sen. David Vitter's gubernatorial efforts. She gave the Vitter campaign the maximum donation allowed, $5,000, back in 2014. Campaign documents show she had also given The Fund for Louisiana's Future, the super PAC that supports Vitter's gubernatorial campaign, $25,000 in 2013

Article wants to make this about TOPS. But Pat Taylor's money is oil money. 

One of these is not like the others

Louisiana should have accepted the federal money for expanding Medicaid as soon as it became available a few years ago. Unfortunately, the Governor was already running for President on a platform based on adherence to a crazy cult of cruel austerity and so we've already thrown millions of dollars away that we'll never see again. 

Because they are also in the crazy cult, three of the four candidates running to replace him are running the risk of throwing away even more.

And the longer the state takes to obtain a waiver, the more it costs: Under the current Medicaid program, the state is reimbursed for just over 60 percent of costs for Medicaid patients. Under the Affordable Care Act, the state receives 100 percent reimbursement. Many states have waited more than a year for federal approval of a waiver.

Also, the reimbursement starts to phase out in 2017, meaning the state will have to start paying a 5 percent match that year until it gradually increases to a 10 percent match in 2020. So if the state is going to expand Medicaid, it will save more money the sooner it begins getting the 100 percent match.

There is added pressure to expand Medicaid sooner rather than later because of a deadline the Legislature agreed to during the spring legislative session. If Louisiana expands Medicaid by April 1, 2016 the Louisiana Hospital Association's members have agreed to cover the state's matching funds starting in 2017 using a fee charged through hospitals.

The three crazy cult members are crazy, though. Louisiana has already painstakingly "reformed" its Medicaid delivery system according to their preferred privatized model. There's no need to appoint any new committees to study the issue and there's no need to apply any sort of "waiver."  All we need to do now is take whatever is left of the federal money the law entitles us to.  Only one candidate says he understands this. 

Edwards: We should stop sending our federal tax dollars to Washington, D.C., so they can send it to the 30 states that have expanded the Medicaid program. I'm not going to back down, I do support the Medicaid expansion because it's the right thing to do.

Last month, Gambit recommended a candidate who clearly does not.  They did this either because they are too stupid to understand it (not likely), or they believe their readers are (possible).  In either case they're putting their fear of being embarrassed by David Vitter's hookers over articulating a clear policy choice for Louisiana. And they're asking you to accept the costs of that choice.

Everybody hates Vitty

Andrew was good enough to share this on Twitter this morning

#LaGov tracking from a certain pollster last week (10/14). JBE 29 Vitter 21 Angelle 17 Dardenne 14 pic.twitter.com/5WL9WkgcFQ

— Andrew Tuozzolo (@ATuozzolo) October 20, 2015

This is from the fall edition of this year's LSU Riley Center public opinion survey.



People do not like David Vitter.  This means that he is beatable this year.. even by the Democratic candidate. Unfortunately... as we have pointed out time and again... lots of folks you might ordinarily consider "Democrat-leaning" types are trying their damnedest to kill Vitter in the primary thereby guaranteeing a Republican becomes the next Governor.

I have no idea why they would do that. The only explanation I can rest on is they don't actually care about Medicaid expansion, labor rights, or racial and economic equality.. you know.. the things that a person elected by a Democratic coalition is obligated to at least grant an audience to. Instead they just really hate being "embarrassed" by Vitter. Because hookers... or something.

Many things happening Thursday

Orleans Public Defender Derwyn Bunton will speak at The Lens's Breakfast with the Newsmakers event at 8 am.  We mentioned this already but it should be good. Stop by if you can.

HOLY CRAP, it's already city budget day! 

Landrieu will present his 2016 operating budget to the City Council on Thursday.

Though his fiscal priorities, and the actual 2016 operating budget figures, won’t be released publicly until then, some of what to expect can be gleaned from resident gripes, collected by the Landrieu administration in a round of community budget meetings this summer.

That’s because under Landrieu’s “budgeting for outcomes” process, the city says it aims to design budgets with residents in mind, with a stated goal of getting the biggest return on investment of public dollars.

Yeah, not really, though. As we've discussed at length in previous years, those Budgeting for Outcomes meetings contribute more of a political sideshow than they do anything of substance to the budget.  Not that we don't enjoy the meetings. They are always good fun. Although next year, maybe they should spring for refreshments.

Because, hey check it out, we're rich.

All that said, New Orleans’ 2016 budget is poised for some growth, due to booming sales tax receipts and other collections. City officials forecast $30 million in additional money in 2016 at a Revenue Estimating Conference meeting last month.

And the city is likely to end 2015 on a strong financial note. Though the administration budgeted $536.8 million in general fund revenue this year, the city brought in $60 million more than planned. That was largely due to the BP settlement, increased tax collections and the auction of many tax-delinquent properties.

Also at that meeting, city officials said they were working to build up a reserve fund that could be tapped into in case of a natural disaster or other emergency. Bond-rating agencies suggest that should amount to about $60 million. The city’s reserve, as of Sept. 28, stood at about $25 million, Chief Administrative Officer Andy Kopplin has said.

Don't get too excited. We're still probably not paying the firefighters.  Or the Public Defender for that matter.  Mostly they're going to tightening up in order to pay for police and prison consent decree stipulations. You'd think the Public Defender's Office would figure into that but the mayor doesn't seem to see it that way.  Also, of course, they've gotta make sure the tourists all "feel safe" first.

Let's see.. what else.. oh here is another Governors Show Thurday night. This is only the second televised debate to feature all four of the major candidates. Three of them met Wednesday night in Lafayette for what is probably the most substantive debate yet. (You can get a lot of constructive things done while David Vitter is out of the room.) Stephanie Grace picks out probably the most significant policy distinction expressed during the evening.

A question on Medicaid expansion drew out a key difference between how the three men who attended would proceed.

Edwards said he'd tap into the money immediately, and brushed of his Republican opponents' insistence on market-oriented reforms. Gov. Bobby Jindal already instituted such measures, he argued, when he introduced the Bayou Health managed care program (of course, Jindal has refused to consider expanding Medicaid despite his own reforms).

Dardenne said he'd apply for a conditional waiver to access the money quickly, then proceed with reforms. The timing is key because of the state's budget shortfall, and also because private hospitals are set to pick up the local match if an agreement is reached by April 1.

Angelle said he'd seek a waiver to develop a Louisiana-specific program before accepting the expansion. He insisted that, against all odds, the state and the federal government would work things out in a few months, not a year or two.

Another point of interest occurred when John Bel Gomer Edwards indicated he might support lifting the $180 million cap on the exceedingly wasteful "Hollywood South" tax credit program. Here (via the Advocate) is a Variety article  suggesting the cap still hasn't hurt the state's ability to bring in big budget productions.. for whatever that might be worth.

Beyond that, the three candidates mostly divided their time discussing budget priorities and taking shots at the hated Bobby Jindal as well as the absent and equally hated Vitter. Interestingly, though, neither Angelle nor Dardenne indicated he might endorse Edwards in the likely event that he faces Vitter in the runoff. Yet another poll released this afternoon shows not only that but also gives Edwards  a 52% - 33%  advantage on Vitter in that hypothetical runoff. So, congratulations, Governor Edwards, right?

Well.. we'll see about that. Vitty will be back on the stage Thursday night.  The ground rules are a little strange, though.

The televised gubernatorial debate being hosted by Louisiana Tech University and KTBS-TV in Ruston on Oct. 15 will have some unusual features that will keep media and the public out of the same room of candidates.

The restrictions include shooting the debate without an audience present, even though the debate is being held inside the Davison Athletics Complex, a facility that's designed to handle large crowds. And despite the debate being held in what's described as a "banquet-type room," most of the media covering the debate will be sequestered in a second-floor room where candidates can choose to appear after the debate for interviews and reaction.

The debate will consist of a panel of members of the media, but no other media is allowed in the room. The debate rules describe the room as "controlled atmosphere = no public, media in room except for panel."

Afterward, the candidates will remain in the sealed environment where they will participate in the faking the next moon landing.  

But there may not be any time to deal with that since it's Falcons Week! (Yay?) Hey.. wait where are you going?  Look, I don't care what anybody says. Rob Ryan is still pretty great.

Asked if the defense was on the verge of turning things around, he replied, "I know we're on the verge of breaking through."

Evidence of that confidence is difficult to find, especially after the Saints gave up 519 yards in a 39-17 loss on Sunday at Philadelphia.

After Sunday, the Saints have allowed 409 yards per game, 32nd of 32 teams in the NFL.
"Stats don't mean anything to us," Ryan said. "I know what it looks like."

Even so, Ryan was insistent that progress is near: "You can feel it. (A breakthrough) is coming. I know it is. Just keep blaming me. Keep blaming me and that will be great."

That's right screw your fancy stats and maths. We're just gonna run on out there and #GetWeird and sooner or later the "breakthrough" is gonna happen.  It's a real shame that Ryan's tenure in New Orleans has been so rough after that great 2013.  Everyone is happier when that guy is.

Anyway, I'd love to tell you the Saints are going to win tomorrow since, frankly, that's the only thing that could save this tire fire of a season at this point. But it looks like they're going to be missing two starters from their terrible offensive line again so I wouldn't get my hopes up.  

Governor Show

Everybody but Vitter is playing tonight. Looks like you can watch on WNOL. I'm going to miss this so I hope it's available to watch on replay. Otherwise y'all let me know how Kim Davis does in this one.

Bobby Jindal's national tax hike

Bobby Jindal thinks poor people don't pay enough taxes.

Mr. Jindal’s plan seeks to compress the current seven tax brackets to three, with those in the lowest rung paying a 2% rate. It would also eliminate most deductions, including those that allow millions of Americans to pay nothing in federal income taxes.

Mr. Jindal takes a different tack on taxes than his GOP rivals, particularly those looking to shield more Americans from paying federal income taxes at all, including former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and real-estate developer Donald Trump. Mr. Bush would nearly double the standard deduction and estimates under his plan that roughly 15 million additional Americans would “no longer bear any income-tax liability.”

Mr. Jindal’s proposal would eliminate the standard deduction and the $4,000 personal exemption. That means a family of four would pay taxes on at least $28,600 in income that is now protected from the Internal Revenue Service under the current tax code. Mr. Jindal proposes a nonrefundable tax credit that could replace some of these deductions for households with children under the age of 18, or people older than 65 who make less than $5,000. He didn’t offer specifics on how this might work.

See, this way we can get more people "rowing the boat." 

In the release announcing his plan, Mr. Jindal acknowledged it would be controversial for exposing lower-income Americans to taxation. “It re-establishes the idea that, in America, everyone is expected to help row the boat,” he said in the release. “Independence, not dependence, is the root of the American dream. It’s time we had the guts to say so in public.”

Note that is different from getting more people "pulling the wagon" in that it is a metaphor neither Bobby, nor his protege Scott Angelle, nor even former State Rep. David Duke has used before to make the same argument.  Note also, that Bobby's reason for wanting more people to row has absolutely nothing to do with getting the boat across the water before he deliberately sinks it.

Mr. Jindal estimates his changes would reduce the federal tax revenue by $9 trillion, or 22%, over 10 years. He also predicts the gross domestic product would grow at more than 4% a year, and that wages would grow at more than twice that pace. Mr. Jindal has said he plans extensive budget cuts.

It's interesting to see Jindal bring up this plan now.  Remember a few years ago he tried to do something similar to the tax structure in Louisiana. But his"tax swap" plan which would have repealed the state income tax in favor of higher sales taxes, was so unpopular, even with the conservative Louisiana Legislature, that he ended up "parking" it with no further action.

At the time, Mark Moseley wrote in The Lens that the whole exercise had really been about positioning for the 2016 race.

This is a priority for Jindal, not Louisiana. It’s a policy motivated by personal ambition and couched in talking points instead of sound economics. The state deserves a better, more informed debate. Not about a particular “plan,” per se, but about Jindal’s views on economics.

In short, Jindal-nomics conform to supply-side ideology, appeal to establishment Republican kingmakers and would allow Jindal to posture as a Bayou Reagan in advance of the 2016 presidential race. That’s what he wants, and if Tidmore is right, that’s what he’ll get.

The Chris Tidmore reference in that quote is regarding a column where Tidmore reported that Jindal was still determined to achieve an income tax repeal despite having set aside the "swap" plan. At the time, Moseley concluded that Jindal would need a win there in order to outflank his GOP opponents to the right on tax policy in Iowa.  Today it looks like Jindal is going for it anyway.  But this is even more blatant.

In the "tax swap" scenario Jindal was trying to sell a net tax increase on poor and middle class people behind the smokescreen of a "repealed income tax."  In this new plan, he's just coming out and saying, look, poor people are moochers, and I'm gonna make them pay by any means necessary. It's the same basic policy except a bit meaner in tone this time.  But when the tone is set by Donald Trump as the frontrunner for an entire summer, this is what happens.

Big Oil's boy

 

From Sunday's Advocate, here's Tyler Bridges taking a shot at following some of the money in the Governor's race.  For the purposes of Bridges's article, the power conflict at work is "trial lawyers" vs."business interests." The situation has more facets than just that. "Tort reform," for example, is about more than just wealthy business owners and the wealthy lawyers who sue them.

Not to mention the fact that "trial lawyers" often work for "business interests" themselves.  Not to mention, also, the times when their relationship is less adversarial than it appears on the surface.  For more on how "trial lawyers" and "business interests," work both for and against one another in several dimensions of Louisiana politics, please read all of American Zombie.

But it's not a terrible framework in which to place this article which is, after all, about politics.  What are all these frenemies trying to do with their giant sacks of money in the election?

One Baton Rouge-based law firm is spending at least $1.7 million for television ads that attack U.S. Sen. David Vitter, the gubernatorial candidate who wants to kill the lawsuits that landowners file against oil and gas companies.

“We just want to defeat David Vitter,” said Don Carmouche, whose firm, Talbot, Carmouche & Marcello, is funding the anti-Vitter super PAC. “He’s Big Oil’s boy.”

Carmouche said the other three gubernatorial candidates “are reasonable.” They are Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle, Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne and state Rep. John Bel Edwards, the only Democrat in the race.

Carmouche said the firm is spending an additional $625,000 beyond the $1.1 million previously reported for the anti-Vitter ads.

They're all out to get Vitter because he's "Big Oil's boy."  Not that the lawyers themselves are not also that from time to time but that's another story.  They're certainly right about David Vitter in this case.  Are they right about the other candidates being any different, though? Not really.

Here's a profile of candidate Scott "T-Bobby" Angelle NOLA.com ran today.  According to this article, Angelle is running on the strength of his "Big personality."

While some of the other others can get deep into the weeds of their policy agendas, Angelle is often shorter on specifics. He is more likely to use an anecdote from his own life to get his point across.

"He's running a personality campaign. He thinks that's his strength so that's what he's doing," said Bernie Pinsonat, who owns the Baton Rouge-based polling firm Southern Media Strategies.

Okay.. maybe. But he's also running on the strength of his personal relationship with the oil industry.  

But Angelle, who used to be a Democrat, is trying to appeal to moderates in that party. Angelle is a social conservative, who said he switched parties primarily because national Democrats weren't backing up the oil and gas industry like they should have.

Angelle has close ties to the oil and gas industry. He majored in petroleum land management at the University of Louisiana–Lafayette. As the head of the Department of Natural Resources, he helped regulate the oil and gas industry for the Blanco and Jindal administrations.

Angelle sits on the Sunoco Logistics board of directors, for which he gets paid almost $390,000 – as long as he attends all of the meetings – according to federal filings. U.S. Sen. David Vitter's campaign has called foul on that relationship, implying Angelle used his positions in state government to get the board post.

Angelle said he has not been involved in regulating the company while sitting on its board. If elected governor, he said he would step down from the position.

Oilman and gas CE0 James Flores has also donated $1.25 million to Angelle's affiliated PAC, called Louisiana Rising. Flores' mega-donation has raised some eyebrows.

Sounds like Big Oil has more than one boy, doesn't it? Angelle, in fact, is the only candidate in the race who has received an award from an oil and gas lobbying association for his work... not enforcing environmental regulations as a member of the Public Service Commission.

What about these other guys?  Well there's Jay "Mr. Bean" Dardenne. Prior to his opposition to the well-publicized levee authority lawsuit against the industry last year, Dardenne also boasts of his work to stop Foster Campbell's proposed oil processing tax; our last semi-honest attempt at asking the industry to help pay the state any new fee in return for the vast mineral wealth it extracts from within our borders.

John Bel Edwards is the only candidate to have expressed support for the SLFPAE lawsuit.. although it is now a moot point. He also claims to side with these "trial lawyers" and their right to sue oil companies.  At the same time, though, when this became an issue in his own region of the state recently, Edwards sided with the oil company.

All four candidates also said they believe the state, not local governments, should have the final say-so when it comes to drillers’ hydraulic fracturing operations within a parish. The technique, called fracking, uses high-pressure water, sand and chemicals to loosen oil and gas trapped in rock. Opponents claim the technique could contaminate groundwater and cause other damage.

St. Tammany Parish government and the town of Abita Springs filed separate lawsuits last year to stop New Orleans-based Helis Oil & Gas Co.’s plans to drill near a high school.

The candidates said state jurisdiction over drilling is a must or else there could be just as many sets of drilling rules as there are municipalities and parishes — hundreds.

In the Hellis case, the state stepped in to shut down local action against the fracking operation. You can prattle on about the imagined jurisdictional chaos all you want. That's not what the issue was here and all of these worms, including Edwards, know it.

But for some reason the lawyers have taken a look at the pool of Big Oil boys and selected only one as their target. Why would they do that?  Well, I've tried to point out previously that, if you're trying to knock David Vitter out in the primary, the best explanation for that is you're actually working on behalf of one of the other Republicans.

Given that, and given what we also know about the complicated, not always adversarial, relationship between business interests and trial lawyers, the next question to ask is, which Big Oil boy also belongs to Big Trial Lawyer?


Update: More from Bridges on T-Bobby. 

State and federal records show that Angelle earned $52,000 in 2014 as an elected member of the PSC, a part-time job, while he earned $194,000 in income and future stock options while serving as a board member of Sunoco Logistics, a company with pipelines that traverse Louisiana.

In 2013, he earned even more in income and stock options — $380,000 — while serving on Sunoco’s board, according to the company’s filings with the federal Securities Exchange Commission.

“When I first heard about it, it was an eye-opening moment,” said Foster Campbell, another PSC member.

That is very ethicsy.  Or at least it is for a former Jindal Admistration official. They don't give that Blue Heron award out to just anybody, you know. 

Gomermentum

I've got some more Governor's race stuff in the hopper.  But here's another poll released yesterday.

The stunning results reveal democrat State Rep. John Bel Edwards leading his closest competitor by nearly ten points, with 28% of respondents favoring him over U.S. Senator David Vitter, who sits at 19%.

This exclusive gubernatorial poll, conducted by JMC Analytics & Polling of Baton Rouge, is the the first to reveal any significant separation by one of the candidates.

These new numbers could also spark concern for the two other notable republican candidates, who’ve both dropped into single digits. According to the Local 33 News and JMC Analytics poll, 8% of respondents prefer Scott Angelle, while Lt. Governor Jay Dardenne commands just 7%.

Poll was conducted before the terrible WDSU debate and before Gambit decided to try and make Dardenne a thing. (More on all of that later.) 

That'll show 'em

I hope the kids have been enjoying their little in-jokes.

“Off the top of my head, I couldn’t cite you Title 14,” Vitter began his answer Monday night. “I don’t know exactly what it says. But given that Jay Dardenne knows exactly what it’s about, this question was obviously planted as a gotcha question at me.”

He repeated the accusation: “It’s a gotcha question, not a good public debate question for a discussion about the future of Louisiana. So let’s all recognize what’s going on here and what it’s all about. I’ve spoken about my past and how my family has dealt with that, actions from 15 years ago and how me and my family have dealt with that. I’m very happy and very proud to say we’ve dealt with it just fine. If that’s not good enough for you, then that’s not good enough for you. But it is for Wendy [his wife] and it is for our family. It is for us. I really don’t appreciate the games and the gotcha question planted on behalf of my opponents.”

The question came from one of several asked by Anna Friedberg, a criminal defense attorney representing the Orleans chapter of the Alliance for Good Government.

“That was the Orleans chapter’s question,” Friedberg said afterward, suppressing a giggle at the idea that they had coordinated the question with the Dardenne campaign.

Whooo aren't we all so naughty! Well, okay, Vitter is clearly the naughty boy here. But that's the problem. Everyone seems to think it's the height of cleverness to fixate on that.  You did it. You got in your little snarky joke. And, of course, Vitter (the guy who wears the diapers) made you look like children for doing it. Because that's what always happens when this comes up.

More importantly, it makes you look like you have nothing of substance to say about Vitter in opposition.  Never mind that Governor Vitter's approach to next year's state budget would preserve all of the worst of Bobby Jindal's tax giveaways to Vitter's allies in the business and oil and gas lobbies. Never mind that Vitter moved to protect his backers in the oil industry from liability even while the Macondo well was still bleeding into the Gulf.   Last month in a statement to a House Natural Resources Commitee hearing, Vitter attacked safety rules aimed at preventing another Macondo type accident, as "a regulatory avalanche coming from the Obama Administration aimed at oil and gas."

Thus far, Vitter's opponents, the various PACs funding their advertising, and the commenters and bloggers promoting their campaigns have steered far away from criticizing Vitter on these issues choosing instead to focus on the prostitution scandal.  I've never understood what goes through the minds of people who write about elections specifically with the purpose of helping a candidate anyway. But in this case, I really have to wonder who it is they think they are helping.

Here's an article by  Jeremy Alford on how the dynamics of the open primary make for "unlikely alliances" among the candidates.

We’re only talking about loose alliances here, forged not by admiration but rather by necessity. Together, in both instances, they offer each other not only protection, but also paths to victory.

Vitter and Edwards are certainly the odd couple out of this set. Vitter’s best shot at becoming the next governor is with Edwards by his side in the runoff, if you believe the polls and the senator’s boosters. That’s because, on paper at least, a Democrat running statewide against a Republican has major hurdles to overcome in conservative Louisiana. 

But Vitter isn’t exactly the Louisiana Republican archetype. He has problems, most notably his “serious sin” from 2007. His opponents, reporters and independent expenditure groups are dumping negatives on him at a constant clip now, dredging up stories that Vitter undoubtedly hoped would remain buried. If the attacks continue to flow and somehow resonate in a meaningful way, Edwards’ supporters believe they can turn the tide and make the impossible possible.

Edwards wants to face Vitter in the runoff because he is the only Republican he could possibly beat. A PPP poll released September 23rd says Vitter is "badly damaged and highly vulnerable" in a runoff.  Here's why.



Nobody likes David Vitter. Even supporters of Angelle or Dardenne tend to prefer Edwards as a second choice.  In the PPP poll, Edwards beats Vitter head to head.




Dardenne and Angelle see the race differently than either Vitter or Edwards does. Edwards and Vitter are playing the traditional two stage game; finish in the top two and then start working on the runoff campaign. For either non-Vitter Republican, the whole race is about making the runoff where either is more or less unbeatable.  It would be a difficult task but the numbers show that John Bel Edwards can beat David Vitter.

So the primary at this point is about this. Do you prefer a chance at electing Edwards or do you prefer one of the very conservative Republicans looking to knock Vitter out of the primary?  Basically if you have been attacking Vitter via the prostitution scandal during this period, you are campaigning on behalf of Angelle and Dardenne each of which represents a policy program as bad or worse than Vitter's. Hope y'all are happy with the results of that.

He really is T-Bobby

It's pretty adorable.

Republican gubernatorial candidate Scott Angelle is now an elected utility regulator. But until a couple of years ago he was one of Jindal’s closest aides and was allowed to wander the halls of the governor’s suite of offices on the fourth floor of the State Capitol. But he, like other cabinet secretaries, usually had to go through the chief of staff to get an audience with Jindal. Few could just pop their head into Jindal’s office and ask if he had a minute or two.

Precocious little T-Bobby wandering the halls is a nice image.  But did Bobby know he had given free rein of the house to a gad-dang Obama lovin' librul?   Well.. according to David Vitter, anyway.

The Vitter campaign commercial against Angelle says he has a lot in common with President Barack Obama. It says he was a Democrat for 31 years — Angelle switched to the Republican Party in 2010 — and features several photos of Obama and Angelle simultaneously. The spot also says Angelle took positions on the Public Service Commission that were favored by the Obama administration.

Vitter’s super PAC, Fund for Louisiana’s Future, also launched an attack ad against Angelle that suggests he did nothing to prevent the Bayou Corne sinkhole.

Regular Election Season Preview

Preseason is ending.  This weekend, we.. slowly.. learned the final composition of the New Orleans Saints roster as they prepare to open regular season play next week. (Lots of rookies expected to start or play lots of snaps on defense this year. Yikes!)  This week coming we're going to learn the final roster of candidates in the fall elections.

Here are your important dates. The primary is October 24. If you need to register to vote, you have until Sepember 23.  If you are thinking about running for office, qualifying begins this Tuesday and ends Thursday. There may be some surprises next week. But, at the moment, this is your roster of candidates for Governor.

Public Service Commissioner Scott (T-Bobby) Angelle



Angelle worked in the Jindal Administration as head of the Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority. Despite some effort to distance himself, his campaign has ties to Jindal's polling and fundraising infrastructure. He's seen by many as the current Governor's preferred successor.  This could be a liability, to say the least, with Jindal's statewide approval ratings sitting in the 20s and 30s these days.

In 2011, Angelle was the proud recipient of the "Blue Heron Award for Environmental Stewardship." That sounds nice. The award is handed out by the Louisiana Mid Continent Oil and Gas Association. Those guys really know their environmental stewards.

Aaron Viles, deputy director of the Gulf Restoration Network, questioned whether it is ever appropriate for an association to give an award to someone who oversees the regulation of its members.

"Mid Continent giving an environmental award to Scott Angelle is like GE giving a nuclear safety award to the leadership of Fukushima Prefecture," Viles said.

But Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, who handed out the award, said in a statement that "Scott has been a warrior for our people and our coast."

"He has fought tirelessly to help get out people back to work after the federal government implemented a job-killing deepwater drilling moratorium and a de facto moratorium on shall water drilling," the governor said.

Heckuva job, T-Bobby.

Lieutenant Governor Jay Dardenne



Republican politics in Louisiana over the past decade has sometimes been described as kind of a three way turf battle between Jindal, Dardenne, and David Vitter.  To the extent that that's even true, Dardenne has been the minor player in it. It's probably more accurate to say that Dardenne has positioned himself as the anti-Jindal in terms of patronage and organization in Baton Rouge and Central Louisiana.  His beef with Vitter is more a default result of the fact that everyone has a beef with Vitter.

Still, Dardenne has substantial reach and name recognition. And his mild temperament allows him to be seen as something of a moderate alternative to the other Republicans even if this is not, strictly speaking, true. As Lt. Governor, he works closely with the tourism industry.  Expect him to call on support from friends there. He's also already pandering to the "Hollywood South" crowd despite the huge hole that program has eaten out of the state budget. (More on that in a bit.)

Dardenne also holds the distinction of being the only candidate to build a replica of the Poverty Point Native American historic site out of Mounds bars.

State Rep John Bel (Gomer) Edwards



You almost have to admire John Bel. He's come a long way during the preseason.  He began with certain strengths. He is a well respected leader among colleagues in the legislature. He's a veteran. And practically everyone in his family has been Sheriff of Tangipahoa Parish at some point. The Sheriff's Association still matters in Louisiana politics. Maybe not as much as it once did, but still.. nothing to sneeze at.

But he was also pretty much a no-name among voters statewide.

He's doing better now. Some polls over the summer even showed him leading the field. Edwards has done well to lock up endorsements from the state Democratic Party and Louisiana AFL-CIO early in the year before anyone else with a "D" behind his/her name could jump in the race. (More on that in a bit.)

He gives a pretty good stump speech. Here is Gambit's write-up of his appearance at this year's Jefferson-Jackson dinner in New Orleans. 

Edwards said the pressing issue on voters' minds going into the 2015 election is recovering from Jindal. And Jindal's not even on the ballot. But the party continues to link Republican candidates for governor to Jindal — in his speech, Edwards called his opponents "Jindal on steroids" (David Vitter), "Jindal Lite" (Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne) and "Jindal incarnate" (Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle). Former Gov. Kathleen Blanco, the last Democrat in the governor's mansion, introduced Edwards, whose supporters rang yellow bells with blue handles throughout his speech and at any mention of his name throughout the event.

Gomer rolls out that "Jindal Lite, Jindal Incarnate, Jindal On Steroids" line everywhere he goes. It must be working at least a little bit. At the JJ dinner he also worked in a shot at David Vitter. "100% of the voters know who Senator Vitter is. I'm not sure he can overcome that."

Speaking of which...

US Senator David Vitter




Presumptive front runner and eventual Governor unless something drastic happens.  Nobody likes him at all and yet nobody has any idea how to beat him.  Vitter is a smart, resourceful, and ruthless campaigner. He also has something like $9 million to spend between his campaign and supporting super PAC funds.  He's consistently polled ahead of the pack, or in the top two. It's impossible to imagine Vitter not at least being in the runoff.

Biscuit 4 Louisiana 



Fake Twitter account ostensibly managed by a housecat. Biscuit nonetheless poses a semi-viable alternative to most of the other candidates on the slate.  Thus far in his political career, he has stood against the reelection campaigns of Bobby Jindal in 2011 and Mitch Landrieu in 2014 on the grounds that he was at least as serious a candidate as any other challenger those years.  His platform mostly involves pointing out terrible policy choices his opponents might make and declaring that, instead of doing any of those things, he would probably nap or play with some string or some such.  Barely campaigns. Has no money, organization, or experience.  But please don't call him an underdog because.. well..

Mystery Last Minute Entrant?



Oh my God who could it possibly be!

As sort of a warm-up last week, the candidates participated in two pre-season forums. The first was something called a "Students Ask" forum Wednesday night in "Downtown Hammond."  Candidates answered questions posed by a panel of college students.  The other was a business community sponsored event at the Jazz Market on Friday.  David Vitter only participated in the second forum.  Like preseason football games, they were meh events. But we did learn a few things.

On Wednesday, one interesting question about coastal restoration came from a North Louisiana student.  In our part of the state, voters typically ask the candidates how quickly we can get moving with plans to meet the most serious existential challenge we face. But the way this young lady phrased it was, "Am I going to have to pay higher taxes to fund coastal projects."  It almost sounded, in other words, like "Why should I even care?" So that's one political obstacle to saving South Louisiana from the sea. North Louisiana doesn't care whether we do or not.

Another obstacle, we already know about. No one is willing to hold the oil and gas industry accountable for the destruction it has wrought. Gomer is the only candidate talking even a semi-OK game in that regard. At the students forum he said, "We cannot allow (oil and gas) to be immunized from paying their fair share." Sounds pretty good.  I'm wary of such statements, though, because "fair share" is such an intentionally vague phrasing.

The other candidates are even more timid in that they do everything they can to avoid linking coastal loss with oil exploration at all. At the business forum, Vitter even suggested the best way to make the industry pay their "fair share" is to promise never to make them pay.

Vitter, in sharp contrast, called for greater limits on those kinds of lawsuits to create a better investment climate in Louisiana.

One of the people in the audience was Loulan Pitre, a former state representative from Lafourche Parish who has created a political action committee with former shipbuilder Boysie Bollinger that is seeking to elect legislative candidates who will support Vitter’s view.

Other tidbits from the Students Ask forum: 

Dardenne and Angelle seem to be under the impression that black people all over the country are killing police and not the other way around. Angelle views nationwide protest against police violence as "folks turning against the badge," while Dardenne said, "It's tragic to see police being killed all over the country."  It was disappointing to watch Edwards avoid countering any of this poison. Instead he talked about how proud he is that pretty much everybody in his family is a Sheriff of one thing or another.

T-Bobby's primary message at the Wednesday night forum was that he has lots and lots of children and grandchildren.  Also he sometimes says things in French. A major tenet of his platform is about constructing a large electronic plaque that blinks "CATHOLIC CAJUN PERSON" for him to wear around his neck on a chain. 

The candidates had to answer one obligatory stupid question about which actor would play them in a movie. Dardenne says he wants to be Dustin Hoffman. We were all crushed that he didn't say Rowan Atkinson.

And of course, at the students' forum, they all talked about TOPS and what a shame it is that there's no money for things like TOPS anymore.

There was also some talk about cuts to the state employee retirement program and what a shame it is that there's no money for retirees anymore.  If you've been following along in recent years, you'd know Jindal destroyed a well run Office of Group Benefits in order to satisfy an ideological canard and, of course, hook up some cronies in the process.

Jay Dardenne must not have been watching any of that. His response more or less sent the following message to retirees affected by the boondoggle.





Anyway with all the talk about responsible belt tightening, you'd think the candidates could also agree on plugging up some of our more serious budget holes.  According to this Advocate special report last November, state "tax incentive" giveaways to various special interests have increased from $207.8 million to $1.08 billion (!) per year over the past decade.   These giveaways include oil and gas drilling tax rebates, the state inventory tax reimbursement the infamous "Hollywood South" tax credit program.

At the Jazz Market forum, though, only Edwards said anything against any of those three big budget holes.

Edwards, the only Democrat in the race, gave an answer that the sponsors probably didn’t appreciate. He said the Legislature and Gov. Bobby Jindal have cut spending during the past seven years and that taking a bite out of the business tax breaks was necessary to help balance the budget and stave off the possible bankruptcy of LSU’s main campus in Baton Rouge.

“For one year, we reduced some tax expenditures on a temporary basis,” Edwards said, adding that the Legislature and governor ought to limit the cost of tax breaks and how long they can remain in effect.

Edwards added that the revenue raised from curtailing some tax breaks by 28 percent helped pay for the operation of the big New Orleans hospital that opened a month ago.

This morning's Advocate reports that next year's budget already projects at least $700 million in deficit.  The next Governor and Legislature will have to choose between even further cuts to higher education and health care or patching the gaping hole in the budget due to corporate welfare. This question should be the central theme of this election.  Right now, Gomer is the only candidate who even acknowledges it.

The good news there is, should Gomer make the runoff as most polls suggest he will, the election will at that point be about a serious contrast in policy choices.  That's the sort of thing that makes for a compelling race, and maybe even a closer race than conventional wisdom suggests.

So despite the slow start, this could end up being a fun election season later on when... oh wait a sec. Almost forgot about this.



The late hour chatter this weekend suggests there might be a shake-up coming.

Recall early August when Video Poker and Newspaper Kingpin John Georges paid for a poll that.. for some reason.. also included his name as sort of a bonus question. 

The poll was partially funded by John Georges, a New Orleans businessman who co-owns The Advocate and ran for governor in 2007.

Kennedy included Georges’ name in the poll, asking only if the person was aware of his name and had an opinion about him.

“Currently, I have no plans to run for public office but I would never rule that out,” Georges wrote in an email. “I have included my name recognition and favorability in every poll since owning The Advocate to gauge public opinion on the things I am doing. I cannot see a scenario that I would run but I am flattered. I believe the field of candidates will not change.”

Let's just say that a lot of people aren't buying that right now. 

That poll was released amid a flurry of intrigue last month. My guess is most of it was purposed toward promoting Angelle. In addition to Georges, other names were floated as potential candidates. Mayor Landrieu and City Councilman Jason Williams were rumored to be considering it. 

This was strange since the only thing an extra Democrat in the race could do at this point is ensure that zero Democrats make the runoff. So any Democrat who jumps in now has to know that's what he/she is going to accomplish. The tradeoff for this, traditionally, is the spoiler candidate is either straight up bought off or gets to build some statewide name recognition and momentum to use later on. It's hard to see either of those things motivating Georges.  But there are other incentives.

For instance, it could also be that the realpolitkers in the State Democratic Party are thinking they need to submarine Gomer now in order to keep Vitter from taking the runoff in a cakewalk.  They don't think Edwards, or any Democrat can beat Vitter so they'd rather take their chances with a Republican of their choosing.  Anybody but Vitter, right?



Plus there are plenty enough prominent Democratic party insiders and donors in Louisiana who, thanks to their specific business interests would be as happy if not happier with Angelle as Governor than Edwards. John Georges is one such person.

Recall also that, when Geoges's poll was released, Clancy Dubos made the strange choice to report it in such a way that made it appear as though Angelle was surging and Edwards was falling behind.  The veteran reporter chose to leave this impression despite a rather obvious aberration in the numbers he decided to highlight.

Those percentages reflect the straight-up answers to direct questions. If the numbers are calculated for how voters in various demographics actually cast ballots, then the results change.

“My understanding of the poll is that I am in first place, with Vitter and Angelle tied in second place,” Edwards said Friday.

Kennedy’s poll showed when African-American responses are redistributed along historical voting patterns, a common technique used by pollsters, then Edwards’ support comes in at 34 percent, while Angelle and Vitter each have 21 percent. Dardenne and the “undecideds” are at 12 percent.

So why did Clancy write it the way he did? He tried to explain himself a few days later.

When Kennedy’s poll leaked out last week, I reported only the “raw” and “leaner” numbers because I was not trying to project the results forward. Think of it this way: A poll is like a photograph. It reflects voter attitudes and opinions at a particular point in time. Over time, the picture usually changes — especially when candidates start spending money and attacking one another. A poll, therefore, is not a crystal ball that predicts the outcome of an election. It merely shows where the candidates are at a particular moment during the campaign.


In not reporting the redistributed numbers, I didn’t intend to discount the validity of Kennedy’s analysis, nor did I intend to slight Edwards. However, when the redistributed numbers began circulating, people wondered why where were such different results from the same poll. I hope this explanation helps.

I don't know if that helps.  If anything it adds to the suspicion that Clancy knew exactly what he was doing when he reported the numbers the way he did. 

All of this suggests that Angelle is the candidate a lot of establishment pols and donors including John Georges (and possibly Clancy Dubos) like the most. If Georges jumps into the race this week.. and, again, a whole bunch of people seem to think this could happen... that is most likely the reason for it.

Or it could be we get through Qualifying Week with no extra drama to speak of.  In which case, these are the candidates we're stuck with.  That is, unless Biscuit comes up with the entrance fee by before Thursday.  Anybody got an extra $750 he can borrow?

Update:  Not long after I published this, I heard that Georges might not run after all.  This doesn't change anything about the dynamics and motivations described here, though.