Please make your comments to my section 220 guest post here

Howard Sinker of the Minneapolis Star Tribune asked me to be a guest writer in his "A Fan's View from Section 220" blog at the strib. My post appeared there today. Since Howard has disabled comments for that post on his blog, feel free to use this space for commenting to my post there so dialogue can be established.

Housekeeping Notes:

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• There is not a filter or moderation here (i.e. your comments will appear immediately), but if you are nasty (i.e. write something that you would not want your 10 year old son/daughter/niece/nephew/sibling/grandchild to read), I reserve the right to delete it (believe it or not, kids read this space)



• Shoot away!

Extending Joe Mauer: looking at the financial context

An extension to Joe Mauer, who is scheduled to become a free agent after the 2010 season is deemed a priority for this team. However, the Twins have other players as well who will demand salary raises at this point, because there are arbitration-eligible. Here is a list of the arbitration-eligible and free agents (in parenthesis the money that would be freed by not re-signing them) for the Minnesota Twins after the 2009 and 2010 seasons. With trading season ahead, this might be a core of players around whom the Twins will look to build a trade.

After the 2009 season:

Free Agents:

Luis Ayala ($1.3M+)
Joe Crede ($2.3M+)
Mike Redmond ($950K)

Arbitration Eligible:

Boof Bonser
Jesse Crain
Carlos Gomez (super 2)
Matt Guerrier
Fransisco Liriano
Pat Neshek
Brendan Harris
Glen Perkins (super 2)
Delmon Young


After the 2010 season:

Free Agents:

Jesse Crain ($1.7M+)
Mike Cuddyer (team option) ($9.4M)
Matt Guerrier ($1.5M+)
Jason Kubel (team option) ($4.1M)
Joe Mauer
Nick Punto (team option) ($4M)

Arbitration Eligible:

Nick Blackburn
Boof Bonser
Brian Buscher
Alexi Casilla
Carlos Gomez
Fransisco Liriano
Pat Neshek
Brendan Harris
Glen Perkins
Kevin Slowey
Matt Tolbert
Delmon Young

Additional money that will come off the payroll after the 2009 season is the $2.6M the Twins are paying Mike Lamb. Furthermore, Phillip Humber is paid $1.15M this season (thanks to a major league contract signed by the Mets). Releasing him will alleviate that cost

The source of most information for his was Cot's Baseball Contracts.

Reaching for new heights?

The tallest pitchers on the Twins' 40 man roster are standing at 6'4" (Baker, Blackburn, Henn, Nathan, Swarzak).

In this draft the Twins drafted:

3 pitchers 6'4" tall (Stillings, Stilson, Zylstra)
4 pitchers 6'5" tall (Encinosa, Light, Sadler, Butler)
4 pitchers 6'6" tall (Gibson, Bullock, Watts, Giovenco)
1 pitcher 6'7" tall (Bryant)
1 pitcher 6'8" tall (Tyler)

Given that a few of the pitchers drafter are very hard throwers (98,99 mph fastballs) is this a signal of a change of Philosophy of the organization as far as pitching goes? Time will tell

MLB Draft Live Coverage - Day II: rounds 31-50

Note: This page will get updated as picks are made. Also will get updated with links to player profiles and information, so make sure you refresh it to get the new information

The draft starts at 11:30 AM EDT and the Twins will probably pick a bit before noon EDT. Actually it is going much faster. Made their pick at 11:37

Here are the Twins' picks in rounds 31-50 (pick number in parenthesis) :

Round:

31 (942): Cody Martin, 3B/SS/RHP, LHB, 6'2". 205 lbs, Stevens County HS, GA. One of his claims to fame is that as a pitcher he hit an umpire (video link). Here a brief SI writeup of the incident when he was awarded their turkey of the year award and here is a newspaper article.

32 (972): Aaron Senne, RF, LHB, 6'2", 205 lbs, Junior, Missouri (from Rochester, MN). Here is a batting video and here is an article about this former Minnesota State Player of the Year

33 (1002): (Frank) Nick Freitas CF, RHB, 6'1", 215 lbs, senior, Southern Utah. Power hitter Broke his team's home run record. Here is an interview from scout.com

34 (1032): Ricky Claudio, RHP, 6'2", 195. American Senior HS, FL. Here is a brief scouting report (last paragraph). Ricky has a blog and apparently his favorite team is the Boston Red Sox. I hope this changes now.

35 (1062): David Hurlbut, LHP, 6'4", 190 lbs, Diablo Valley College

36 (1092): Jason Zylstra RHP, 6'4" Jacksonville State (same school as Ben Tootle the Twins' third round pick)

37 (1122): David Gutierrez, RHP, 6'0", 160 lbs, Miami. Carlos Gutierrez' brother

38 (1162): Peter Kennelly, RHP, 6'2", 190 lbs, Senior, Fordham

39 (1192): Ryan Sadler, RHP, 6'5" 210 lbs, Naples HS, FL. Here is an article

40 (1222): Ryan Abrahamson, OF, RHB, 6'3", 200 lbs, Tartan HS, MN Here and here are two articles

41 (1252): Pat Butler, RHP, 6'5", 200 lbs Chatham HS, NJ. here is an article

42 (1282): Marc Bourgeois, OF, LHB, 5'11", 205 lbs, Chipola Junior college

43 (1312): Jon Hedges, 1B, RHB, 6'5" 230 lbs, Olney Central College Here is an article

44 (1342): Tyler Herr, RHP, 6'8", 215 lbs, Katy TX HS

45 (1372): Eddie Ahorrio, RHP, Puerto Rico, HS Here is a scouting video

46 (1402): Jake Kretzer, OF, RHB, 5'11", 205 lbs, Benton, HS, MO

47 (1432): Richard Calcano, RHP, Puerto Rico, HS Here is a scouting video

48 (1462): Cody Dordan, RHP, 6'2", 180lbs, Newport HS, OR

49 (1492): Paul-Michael Klingsberg, 1B, LHB, 6'4", 215 lbs, Cal State Domingos Hills

50 (1522): Alberto Cardenas, RHP, 5'10", 190 lbs, Palm Ridge HS, FL

MLB Draft Live Coverage - Day II: rounds 4-30

Note: This page will get update as picks are made. Also will get updated with links to player profiles and information, so make sure you refresh it to get the new information

Here are the Twins' picks in rounds 4-30 (pick number in parenthesis) :

Round:

4 (132): Derek McCallum. RHB, SS/2Bm 6'0", 175 lbs, Junior, University of Minnesota. Here is a scouting video
and here is an article. He was drafted by the Twins in the 50th round of the 2006 draft but did not sign. Here is an article from Pioneer Press and here are his reactions after he was selected by the Twins.

5 (162): Tobias Streich, C, 6'0", 215, RHB, Sophomore, West Virginia U. Here and here are two articles. Here is his reaction after he was selected by the Twins.

6 (192): Chris Herrmann, C/3B, LHB, 6'1", 185 lbs, Junior. U of Miami. Here is a scouting video and here is his personal google profile page, if interested to read some tidbits about him. Here is his-post selection profile from U Miami.

7 (222): Brad Stillings, RHP, 6'4", 210 lbs, Junior, Kent State. Here is an article and here a scouting video. Stillings threw a no-hitter this season

8 (252): Brian Dozier, SS, RHB, 5'11", 190 lbs, Senior, U Southern Miss. Here are his numbers and here is an article.

9 (282): Nick Lockwood, SS, RHB, 5'11", 175 lbs, Jesuit HS, FL. Here is an article.

10 (312): (Michael) Blake Dean, LF/DH, LHB, 6'2", 208 lbs, Junior, LSU. Here is a scouting video and here a page of videos including several of long home runs and here are his numbers.

11 (342): Ronnie Richardson, SH, CF/INF, 5'7", 171 lbs. Lake Region, HS, FL. Here is a detailed scouting report and here a scouting video. Also plays football as a wide receiver

12 (372): Tony Davis, LHP, 5'9", 185 lbs, U Florida

13 (402): Clarence Davis, RHB, SS, 5'11", 160 lbs. Campbell HS, GA

14 (432): Matt Tone, LHP, 6'1", 210 lbs, Junior, SUNY Cortland. Here is an article

15(462): Steven Liddle, OF, LHB, 6'1", 200 lbs, Sophomore. Vanderbilt. Nephew of the Twins' bench coach, Steve Liddle. Here is a video interview, here and here are two articles

16 (492): Dakota Watts, RHP, 6'6", 205 lbs, junior, Cal State Stanislaus

17 (522): Nick Tindall, C, RHB, 6'4", 190 lbs, O' Fallon HS, IL. Here is an article

18 (552): Beau Stoker, SS/3B, LHB, 6'1", 200 lbs, Bishop-Ward HS, KS. Also a Reliever and starting QB and PK in football

19 (582): John Stilson, RHP, 6'4", 190 lbs, Texarcana CC Here is a scouting video

20 (612): Thommy Mackoul, LHP, 6'3", 205, Shophomore UC Riverside. Reliever

21 (642): Kane Holbrooks, RHP, 6'3", 220 lbs, Senior, Texas State

22 (672): Buddy (Stewart) Munroe, C, RHB, 5'11", 195 lbs, Senior, U Florida. Here is a scouting video

23 (702): Eduardo Encinosa, RHP, 6'5", 225 lbs Miami HS. Here is a scouting video

24 (732): Mario Hollands LHP, 6'5", 200 lbs, UC Santa Barbara. Here is a scouting video

25 (762): Anthony Bryant, RHP, 6'7", 210 lbs, Kennewick HS, WA

26 (792): Mike Giovenco, RHP, 6'6", 235 lbs, Junior, North Park U Here is a scouting video

27 (822): Eric Decker, CF, LHB, 6'3", 215 lbs, Junior, Univerity of MN. Probably will return to the U as a senior because he is a top wide receiver update Decker has been quoted (closer to the end of this article) today that he wants to go back to college before he decides his future

28 (852): Pat Light, RHP, 6'5", 190, Christian Brothers Academy, NJ Here is an article

29 (882): (James) Beau Wright, LHP, 6'2", 220 lbs, Los Alamitos HS, CA Here is a scouting video. He had a scare on the field last season from which he recovered.

30 (912): Treyvone Johnson, C, RHB, 6'1", 215 lbs, Los Angeles

I will be doing this again tomorrow starting at 11:30 EDT, covering picks from rounds 31-50.

MLB Draft Coverage - Day I: rounds 1-3

Note: This page will get update as picks are made. Also will get updated with links to player profiles, so make sure you refresh it to get the new information

Here are the Twins' picks in the first three Rounds:

Round 1:

#22: Kyle Gibson, RHP, Missouri. 6'6", 210 lbs, Junior. Here is his scouting report and a video from mlb.com and here is John Manuel's take from Baseball America. Also, here is a scouting report from Saber Scouting with an additional video. Here is a scouting report from Project Prospect, and here is another from The College Baseball Blog. Here is a page full of videos of Kyle Gibson.

Round 1 supplementary (compensation round; the Twins got that pick because of Dennis Reyes singing as a free agent with another team) :

#46: Matt Bashore, LHP, Indiana. 6'3", 200 lbs, Junior. Here are his numbers, here is a quick report, here is an article by Sporting News and here is a scouting video from mlb.com. He was named as one of the top 3 Big Ten starting pitchers by College Baseball Insider.

Round 2:

#70: Billy Bullock, RHP, U Florida. 6'6", 225 lbs, Junior. Here are his numbers and here is an article from The Gainsville Sun.

Round 3:

#101: Ben Tootle, RHP, Jacksonvile State. Here is a scouting report and video from MLB.com and here is an article and here is another one. He was the ninth best college pitcher available according to the College Baseball Blog.

MLB Draft coverage here

The MLB draft starts tonight at 6:00 PM EDT with the first three rounds, continues tomorrow at noon EDT with rounds 4-30 and concludes on Thursday starting at 11:00 AM EDT with rounds 31-50.

This is the way I am planning on covering the draft here:

• Have a close to live daily list of the Twins' picks each day of the draft, which will be updated as additional players are drafted and will provide links to high level profiles of the players (I want to get those out as soon as the names are called, so there will be a lot of editing going on: adding picks as they are made, and editing to include the profiles as time permits. Make sure that you refresh to get the additional information.


• After the draft is finalized, probably around Friday or during the weekend, I will provide an aggregated list of all picks by the Twins, with links to as much information as I can find, including stats, scouting reports, interviews, video etc.


• As players sign, I will profile them individually. Since about half of the picks will never sign and will not wear a Twins-affiliate uniform, I will wait till they sign before I profile them. The deadline for signing draftees is August 17th, so these profiles will be coming sporadically as draftees are signed.

Please feel free to comment in all posts

Who is hot in the minors V4

This is the fourth version of the list of the best performing players in the Twins' minor league system year to date. A reminder that several players are still in extended spring training since the Elizabethton (Appalachian League) and the Gulf Coast League rookie teams have not started their seasons yet. The numbers are as of 5/25. Some players have dropped from the list either because their performance dropped or because they were promoted (Swarzak, Henn). This version includes players from the DLS (minimum 15 PA for position players or appearing in 2 games from pitchers) :

Infielders:

Brian Dinkelman (LHB, 25, AA) .330/.421/.476 3 HR, 32 RBI, 221 PA
Danny Valencia (RHB, 24, AA) .284/.391/.503 6 HR, 26 RBI, 202 PA
Ramon Santana (RHB, 24, A) .360/.444/.576 5 HR, 22 RBI, 145 PA

(Tolleson is .400/.514/.633 in 36 PA at Rochester, but still has some catching up to do due to his slow start at New Britain)

Outfielders:

Rene Tosoni (LHB, 22, AA) .272/.371/.497 8 HR, 32 RBI, 203 PA
Ben Revere (RHB, 21, A) .327/.391/.381 1 HR, 23 RBI, 24 SB, 225 PA
Joe Benson (RHB, 21, A+) .293/.413/.444 3 HR, 14 RBI, 121 PA

1st basemen/DH:

Whit Robbins (LHB, 24, AA) .337/.412/.538, 7 HR, 29 RBI, 211 PA
Rene Leveret (RHB, 23, A+) .336/.430/.448 2 HR, 21 RBI, 135 PA

RH Starters:

Carlos Gutierrez (22, A+, AA) 1.97 ERA, 1.146 WHIP, 5.46 K/9, 1.50 K/BB
Matt Fox (26, AA) 2.83 ERA, 1.291 WHIP, 7.06 K/9, 1.96 K/BB
Mike McCardell (24, A+) 3.75 ERA, 1.059 WHIP, 7.22 K/9, 4.55 K/BB
Brad Tippett (21, A) 3.21 ERA, 1.106 WHIP, 6.29 K/9, 4.10 K/BB
Pedro Guerra(19, Rk/DSL) 0.00 ERA, 0.444 WHIP, 11.00 K/9, inf K/BB
Cesar Ciurcina (18, Rk/DSL) 0.00 ERA, 0.429 WHIP, 2.57 K/9, inf K/BB
Manuel Soliman (19, Rk/DSL) 0.00 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 6.43 K/9, 1.00 K/BB

RH Relievers:

Armado Gabino (25, AAA) 3.18 ERA, 1.059 WHIP, 5.82 K/9, 1.83 K/BB
Bob Keppel (27, AAA) 2.40 ERA, 1.185 WHIP, 4.14 K/9, 1.58 K/BB
Rob Delaney (24, AA,AAA) 2.77 ERA, 1.103 WHIP, 9.69 K/9, 6.00 K/BB
Alex Burnett (21, A+, AA) 1.98 ERA, 1.024 WHIP, 10.54 K/9, 3.20 K/BB
Steve Hirschfield (23, A+) 1.24 ERA, 0.759 WHIP, 6.52 K/9, 3.50 K/BB
Loek, Van Mil (24, A+) 0.00 ERA, 0.800 WHIP, 5.40 K/9, 3.00 K/BB
Eddy Santana (21, Rk/DSL) 0.00 ERA, 0.500 WHIP, 12.00 K/9, inf K/BB
Fransisco Nunez (17, Rk/DSL) 3.00 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 12.00 K/9, 8.00 K/BB
Renzo Reverol (18, Rk/DSL) 0.00 ERA, 0.000 WHIP, 6.00 K/9, inf K/BB

LH Relievers:

Spencer Steedley (24, A+) 0.68 ERA, 0.897 WHIP, 8.89 K/9, 3.71 K/BB
Joe Testa (23, A) 1.75 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 12.00 K/9, 2.82 K/BB

A fashion statement?

By Joe Crede in today's game?




Hard to talk about this series; another loss. 2 games under .500, 5 games behind in the loss column. They almost need to take 4 out of the next 6.

Analyzing Liriano's release point from last night's win.

Fransisco Lirano pitched 6 innings in the Twins' victory against Seattle, in which he allowed only 3 hits, 1 ER, 5 strikeouts, but 4 BB as well. After his previous start, I demonstrated that his release point was all over the place. I wanted to follow his release point closely in yesterday's game and I got inning by inning snapshots of his release point of various pitches, to see if it could tell a better story. The following pitchFX graphs (from Brooksbaseball.net) are graphs of his release point of pitches he threw up and including the indicated inning. Without further ado:

Inning 1 release point:



Fransisco's release point is all over the place again.

Innings 1-2 release point:



You see that a nicer core release point is been established

Innings 1-3 release point:



the core is continuing to be established, few more pitches outside the core

Innings 1-4 release point:



Even nicer core

Innings 1-5 release point:



It really appears that there are two core release points established, one to the left of the other

Innings 1-6 (his whole performance) release point:



The two cores are even more established...

What does that mean? I was really surprised to see two different release points, so I wanted to look more into it, so I looked into release vs lefties and righties to see whether the chirality of the batter he faced made a difference.

Here is his release point against RHB:



nice and tight (well, as far as Liriano goes.) It coincides with the left-most core in the total.

and here is his release point against LHB:



Less tight, but it coincides with the right-most core in the total.

The conclusion here is that Liriano has two different release points. He drops his arm to the right (from batter's view) when he faces lefties and pitches consistently upright when he faces righties. Is this just a coincidence in this game?

Let's look at his splits from that 5/30 game.

Here is his release point against RHB:



decent core to the left with about 3 pitches probably slipping off his fingers



a core more to the right with a few pitches even further away.


Still, the core release points are there, but are not tight. And I am not sure what having 2 different release points does to someone's ability to throw the ball accurately where he wants, but I suspect that it is not good. Let's look at a very good tight core release point.

This is Kevin Slowey's release point from his last game

Total pitches:



Against RHB:



Against LHB:



No difference against LHB and RHB and an extremely tight core. I think that the differences between Slowey's tight release point and Liriano's dual and loose release point translate to their differences in command and control: Slowey rarely walks anyone and has very good command of all his pitches, while Liriano has problems with his command and control. A single consistent release point could go a long way for Fransisco.

Strange Case of Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde: Who really is Scott Baker?

Scott Baker had a career high 10 strikeouts yesterday, in a home game against the Cleveland Indiands; he pitched 7 innings, allowing 2 ER and 6 Hits while walking only 1. He has a no-hitter into the 4th inning. His WHIP is the lowest of all Twins' starters at 1.240 and his ERA almost dropped a whole point after his appearance yesterday. Earlier in the season, Scott Baker was plagued by multi-home run games and even allowed a home run (the first career hit of Chris Gimenez) in the 7th inning.

Is there anything that transforms Scott Baker, the Strikeout Maker to Scott "Home Run" Baker?

Lets start here:

Three weeks ago I indicated that Baker is tipping his pitches by having a higher release point for his breaking stuff that his fastballs and changes. The image I used (PitchFx data from Brooksbaseball.net) was this visualization of Baker's release point on each of his pitches broken down by pitch type from his 5/19 game vs. the Chicago White Sox:



you can see that there is a baseball difference in the height of the release of his breaking stuff (sliders and curves) vs. his fastballs and changeups.

Let's see how he did yesterday through out the game.

Here is Baker's release point on each of his pitches broken down by pitch type yesterday from innings one through five:



Much better. Only two sliders are released higher than the core of his pitches and everything is mixed up. If you look at the height of his release point (Y-axis), Baker did not move the higher breaking release point lower down to match the lower fastball point, but instead, it looks like he is pitching in between, which means that he raised his release point for his fastballs (which are his bread and butter) by standing taller when delivering, and apparently are more effective.

Let's look at his release point through the sixth inning (an additional inning of pitches added to the previous image: )



Still the core is tight with one change up (yellow) additionally thrown from the high release point.

Here is his release point through 7 innings (final for the game) :



Now you see a couple more sliders added to the high release point. When exactly were those high released sliders thrown? Guess when?

Here is Baker's release point during Chris Gimenez's AB in the 7th innning, which resulted to a home run:



Gimenez's home run came on the fastball (green), which was the third pitch of the plate appearance and was released about 7 inches lower that the previous 2 pitches. Since the data was there that Baker tips his pitches and the ball was obvious to the batter that was released from a lower point that the two previous breaking balls, guessing "fastball" was probably easy and right on the mark...

So, it seams that Scott Baker the Strikeout Maker is transformed into Scott "Home Run" Baker, by inconsistent mechanics on his fast ball delivery. It could be fatigue. It could be something obvious to Rich Anderson.

But here is a question that begs to be answered: The pitchfx data isfreely available in the internets and updated by every pitch. Why doesn't the Twins' pitching coach, instead of using a 19th century clicker to keep track of his pitchers, use a laptop to look at pitchFx data? Believe me the pitch count is there. A variation to Baker's release point should be a leading indicator for an upcoming disaster, warranting a visit to the mount and if it continues, replacement. The clicker cannot tell that. This is the 21st century Mr Anderson; welcome to it.

If you want to look at what kind of information is displayed in a pitchfx data page, here is the data from his start yesterday from Brooksbaseball.net. Make sure that you look at the different pull down menus because there is a lot of information there... More than in a clicker...

Fixing Delmon Young

A lot of the posts in this blog have been about analysis of numbers. I know that spreadsheets, graphs, math and statistic can really give people a headache sometimes, so I am departing today from all of these and going back to something I used to love doing when I was a kid: Do you remember in the quiz sections of the newspaper or in the back side of a place mat (the ones you draw on with crayons to keep quiet when waiting for food to come in a diner) the quizzes that had two similar pictures side by size and asked you to find 5 or 10 differences and circle them? This is what this is all about, and Delmon Young.

One of the biggest criticisms of Delmon Young is that Delmon is a singles hitter and will never develop any power. I tried to answer some of this with math and analysis here last month, but let's play this game of looking at pictures and finding differences.

We'll make it more interesting than that: We'll look at pictures of swings by successful hitters and pictures of swings by Delmon to see whether there might be something obvious:

Let's start with the successful hitters:

Some righties:


Kibry Puckett:


Mike Schmidt:


Albert Pujols:


Alex Rodriguez:


Mickey Mantle:


and some lefties:

Mickey Mantle again:


Darryl Strawberry:


Ted Williams:


Joe Mauer:


Here are some Delmon Young swings:







Do you see an obvious difference between Delmon Young's swing and those of the other players'?

Here is some help: Draw an imaginary line from the base of the batter's neck and see where and whether it meets the player's tailbone during the swing.

Here is a visual comparing two of the above swings at the same point of the swing, with that line drawn:



As you can see, Ted Williams' (and all those above players) has his neck aligned with his tailbone, while Delmon's neck is way back aligned with the ground at about his back leg.

This is very unbalanced. One cannot generate any power this way. Actually one would be glad not to fall on his butt after such a swing. This indicates a top body and lower body imbalance and needs to be fixed for Young to be successfully hitting the ball far. (I could also talk about squaring one's shoulders but this is a different story and somewhat controversial)

Do you know who else from the Twins' team swings like this?



(Actually, in addition to Brian Buscher pictured above, Nick Punto and Mike Redmond also swing off-balance, with the known results)

Google images of swings of your favorite players and compare them to Delmon's or watch closely next time players hit (but static images are better, just because swings are too fast)

This is so obvious that Vavra has to do something here. I suspect that he sees that, since it is extremely obvious. If he doesn't (and at least four of his hitters swing like that), does he need to be a hitting coach?

Alternatively, the Twins should get this guy for their hitting coach. (The previous link is for a 15 minute instructional video on swinging by one of the best hitters and now coaches in the game of baseball; highly recommended to everyone who wants to look at the art of hitting. Have a look at it and then next time you watch the Twins have a look at Twins' players at the plate)

What do you think?

2009 MLB draft. Part II: The middle infielders

There are 6 days left for the 2009 MLB Amateur draft. Yesterday I examined the available players for the Twins' biggest organizational need, LHP. Today I am looking at the available players for the Twins' second biggest need, middle infield. I am listing here 53 middle infielders in alphabetical order, who are eligible for the draft (including 2 local prospects). The link on players' names is a link to their bio:

Austin Adams, SS/RHP, Senior, Faulkner. Here is a video. Might be selected as a pitcher.

Brad Agustin, SS, Junior, University of Buffalo.

Stephen Batts, IF, Senior, East Carolina. Here are his numbers and here is a newspaper article about him. Also played 1B and LF

Chris Biguenet, 2B, Senior, U Texas-Dallas.

Shane Brown, 2B, Junior, Central Florida. Here are his numbers. Also played C, 3B, and the OF.

Anselmo Cantu 2B, Senior, Norfolk State. Here are his numbers. Great fielder, light hitting second baseman.

Chase Childers, SS, Senior, Georgia State. Here are his numbers.

Derek Dennis, SS, Forest Hills Central HS, MI.

Daniel Fields, SS, University of Detroit Jesuit HS. Here is an atricle from the Detroit Free Press.

Greg Folgia IF/LF/RHP, Junior, Missouri. Here are his numbers.

Nick Franklin SS, Lake Brantley HS, FL. Here is an article and here is a scouting report.

Scooter Gennett SS/2B, Sarasota HS. Here is a scouting report.

Mychal Givens, RHP/SS, Plant HS (FL). Here is a scouting report and here is a video. An additional scouting report can be found here. He may be drafted as a pitcher.

Ryan Goins 2B, Junior, Dallas Baptist.

Phil Gosselin 2B, Sophomore, Virginia. Here is an article.

Grant Green, SS, Junior, USC. Here is a scouting report, and here are his numbers.

Reed Gragnani, SS/2B, Mills Godwin HS, VA. Here is an article.

Billy Hamilton SS, Taylorsville HS, MS.Here is a scouting report. Recruited by Colleges as a three way athelete (Baseball, Football, Basketball)

Shaver Hansen. IP, Junior, Baylor. Here are his numbers and here is an article.

Gary Helmick IF, Senior, Towson. Here are his numbers.

Randy Henry SS/RHP, Freshman, South Mountain, AZ CC.

Bryant Hernandez, SS, Junior, Oklahoma. Here are his numbers and here is a profile article.

Ryan Jackson. SS, Junior, Miami.Here is a scouting report and here are his numbers.

Corey Jones. IF, Junior, CSU – Fullerton. Here are his numbers.

Mycal Jones. SS, Sophomore, Miami Dade JC. Here is a scouting report.

Dan Kaczrowski. 2B. Senior, Hamline University.Here is an article.

Chad Kettler. IF Coppell HS,TX. Here is a scouting video.

D.J. LeMahieu. SS, Sophomore, LSU. Here is a scouting report, here are his numbers and here is an article.

Deven Marrero. SS, American Heritage HS, He is the younger brother of Nats Chris Marrero. Here is a scouting report that also scouts Stephen Perez who is mentioned below.

Juan Martinez. IF, Senior, Oral Roberts. Here is an article

Derek McCallum. SS/2B. Junior, University of Minnesota. Here is an article. He was drafted by the Twins in the 50th round of the 2006 draft but did not sign.

Rich Michalek,IF, Senior, Slippery Rock University.

Jiovanni Mier. SS - Bonita HS, FL. Here is a scouting report and here is a video.

Cooper Moseley IF, Success Unlimited Academy, AL. Here is an interesting SI article from when Cooper was 10 years old.

Nick Natoli SS, Junior, Towson. Here are his numbers. He was rated as the best defensive college infielder by College Baseball Insider.

David Nick. SS/2B, Cypress HS, CA. Here is a scouting report.

Chris Owings SS, Gilbert HS, SC. Here is a scouting report and here is a video.

Stephen Perez SS, Gulliver Prep,FL. Here and here are scouting reports.

Josh Prince. IF, Junior, Tulane. Here is an article and here is a video of a great play in a game.

David Renfroe IF,South Panola HS, MS. Here is a scouting report and here is a video.

Keyvius Sampson SS/RHP, Florida High School. Here is an article. He may be drafted as a RHP

Ryan Schimpf SS, Sophomore, LSU. Here is a video and here are his numbers.

Kyle Seager, 2B, Junior, North Carolina. Here is a scouting report.

Robbie Shields IF, Junior, Florida Southern. Here is a scouting report.

Brandon Sizemore IF, Senior, College of Charleston. Here is an article.

Jason Stidham, SS, Junior, Florida State University. Here are his numbers

Montaous Walton INF, Playball Academy, WI.

LeVon Washington. CF/2B… Buchholz HS, FL. Here and here are a couple of articles.

Alfie Wheeler. SS, Senior, High Point.

A.J. Yoder IF, Senior, Virginia Military Insitute. Here are his numbers.


I highly suspect that the Twins will select one or more of these players in this year's draft.

2009 MLB draft and a couple of notes

The 2009 Amateur MLB draft is fast approaching. The Rule 4 Draft, or the First-Year Player Draft (all those 3 things are synonyms), includes players who are residents of the U.S., Canada and U.S. territories such as Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands, American Samoa, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands and Minor Outlying Islands. Residents of other countries are not subject to the Rule 4 Draft, but are signed as free agents either when they are young (the majority of Latin American, European, African and Australian players) or when are established (the majority of Japanese players.) Free agents have the ability to negotiate with each team and actually, depending on the perceived value of a player, induce a bidding war for their services. Thus, a lot of Cuban refugees do not take residence in the U.S. or a territory, so they will not be subjected to the amateur draft, but take residence in a Latin American country like Bolivia or Mexico. The minor league draft is a way for organizations to restock their systems.

The NFL Draft is widely publicized and followed, but this is not true for the MLB Draft. Regardless, there are mock 1st round MLB drafts out there from various sources. Here are the calls for the Twins 1st pick this weekend from various places:

mlb outsider: Bobby Borchering, HS (3B) (pick made by Seth Stohs)

Sports2debate: Bobby Borchering, HS (3B)

Flagrant Fouls Kentrail Davis, Tennessee (OF)

Project Prospect: Tyler Skaggs, HS (LHP)

Huffington Post: James Paxton, Kentucky (LHP)

Prospect Insider: Chad James, Kentucky (LHP)

MyMLBdraft.com: Joivanni Mier, HS, SS

Sporting News (M Huang): Jared Mitchell, LSU (OF)

Minor League Ball: Bobby Borchering, HS (3B)

Baseball Draft Report: Jared Mitchell, LSU (OF)

Morisato's Blog: Max Stassi, HS (C)

USCTrojans31: Jacob Turner, HS (RHP)

The Twins usually pick the best talent available, but I find it difficult for them to pick a catcher or an outfielder or a RHP, due to large organization depths in this area. There is some depth in corner infield (esp. on first base) and I think it might be unlikely to pick Bobby Borchering who projects more as a first baseman in the bigs. The needs of the Twins' system are in middle infield and Left hand starting pitching (there are only 9-10 LHS in the whole organization and all of them in all levels, excluding those in extending spring training, are struggling more or less this season). So I believe that their biggest need is a Left Handed Starting Pitcher. From the 94 total pitchers in the Twins' system (including all minor leagues, DSL and EST), there are only 19 LHP, counting both starters and relievers There are a couple of them listed in the above mock drafts, but here is a list of the top LHP in the draft according to Baseball Beginnings. The links on their names go to scouting reports about those pitchers and their overall potential grade from the same report is in parenthesis next to their names.

Tyler Matzek (54)

Andrew Oliver (53)

Tyler Skaggs (53)

Tyler Lyons (50)

You can find another report on Tyler Marzak as well as on Matt Purke (another LHP) here at Cyberscouting. They are both within their top 5 high school talent list. Another LHP who made their top 30 high school talent list is Beau Wright.

Other LHP of note include:

Mike Minor, a scouting report is here

Bryan Morgado, who looks like he is pitching well, a year after Tommy John surgery,

his teammate at Tennessee, Nick Hernandez (here is a video interview),

Brandon Belt who was selected in the 11th round of both 2007 (Boston) and 2008 (Atlanta) drafts, but elected to return to college here is a scouting report,

James Paxton, a Scott Boras' client,

Rex Brothers, a High School Senior from Ft. Myers, FL; scouting report here

Chad James; you can find an interview here

Matt Purke; you can find a scouting report here and another one here

Here is a breakdown of the four high school lefties (Tyler Matzek, Matt Purke, Chad James and Tyler Skaggs) by mlb.com with nice videos.

Additional LHP that probably belong to the later rounds and I assume that at least a couple will be wearing a Twins' unifrom include:

Paul Applebee
Buddy Baumann
Mike Belfore
Gavin Brooks
Jordan Cooper
Neal Davis
Jeff Dennis
Robbie Erlin
Lance Hoge
David Holmberg
Garrett Hughes
Jordan John
Brian Johnson
Donnie Joseph
Tyler Kehrer
Dallas Keuchel
Nick Kirk
Ian Krol
Justin Marks
Wes Musick
Matt Packer
John Pokomy
Miers Quigley (drafted in the 36th round of the 2008 draft by the Twins)
Brooks Raley
Steven Rodriquez
Chris Rusin
Patrick Schuster
Sam Selman
Joe Serafin
Kraig Sitton
Travis Smink
Josh Spence
Matt Way
Austin Woods
Mikey Walkusky

Will the Twins select one of the aforementioned with their first round pick? It is probable, and if not with their first pick, I expect one of these pitchers to become a Twin either with the supplemental pick or their 2nd round pick.

One another note and completely different subject, Cy Morong, of Cybermetrics, posted a great article yesterday suggesting that the Twins' M&M boys' May of 2009 was statistically better than the Mantle & Maris' July of 1961. A must read for any Twins' fan

On yet another note, Seth Stohs invited me to participate last night in his weekly podcast. You can listen online or download it here. Seth interviewed Twins' prospects Evan Bigley and Johnathan Walterbury and at the end, Seth and I talked Twins baseball, including the minors, Liriano, Twins' infield and outfield and such.

DSL Season opener

It is not a secret that one of my favorite MLB-affiliated minor leagues (and probably the most obscure and hardest to follow) is the Dominican Summer League. Last season the DSL Twins finished with an overall 46-24 record on top of the Boca Chica Northern Division. The 2009 DSL season started last Saturday with DSL Twins blanking the DSL Reds 3-0, with the 19 year old Pedro Guerra, who last year I indicated as the best arm in the Twins' minor league system in my opinion, starting the game. The next game is today, since they never play baseball on Sundays in the Dominican Republic.

Here is the 2009 DSL Roster (from MiLB.com), with the players who were in the 2008 squad in italics and off-set:

#  Name                  Pos  Bat  Thw     Ht       Wt      DOB       
9 Ricardo Arevalo         P    R    R     6' 3"    210    02-28-1991 
43 Carlos Carrillo        P    R    R     6' 4"    180    11-25-1989  
4 Cesar Ciurcina          P    R    R     5' 11"   192    10-23-1990 
2 Frank Frias             P    R    R     6' 3"    170    08-15-1989 
39 Pedro Guerra        P    R    R     6' 0"    180    01-09-1990
17 Edgar Martinez         P    R    R     6' 0"    145    09-01-1990 
20 Francisco Nunez        P    R    R     6' 3"    180    12-28-1991
33 Luis Nunez             P    L    L     5' 11"   160    09-26-1991 
44 Renzo Reverol       P    R    R     6' 2"    192    01-24-1991
40 Wilson Sanchez         P    R    R     6' 1"    175    05-06-1991 
27 Eddy Santana        P    R    R     6' 1"    165    09-21-1987 
10 Manuel Soliman         P    R    R     6' 2"    185    08-11-1989 
26 Orlando Villaroel   P    R    R     6' 1"    190    03-08-1990

Catchers 
#         Name           Pos  Bat  Thw     Ht       Wt       DOB 
8 Felix Gallardo         C     R    R     6' 1"    178    06-25-1991 
38 Randy Pina         C     R    R     6' 0"    189    05-01-1991
35 Jairo Rodriguez    C     R    R     5' 11"   180    08-24-1988

Infielders 
#  Name                  Pos  Bat  Thw      Ht       Wt       DOB  
31 Victor Arias       SS    S    R     5' 11"    170   03-26-1991 
32 Juan Blanco        2B    R    R     5' 10"    152   04-24-1989
28 Pedro Estaba          SS    S    R     5' 10"    165   08-04-1992 
22 Lesther Galvan     DH    R    R     5' 10"    178   04-10-1990
19 Yorby Martinez     3B    S    R     6' 0"     170   01-12-1989
1 Daniel Santana      SS    S    R     5' 11"    150   11-07-1990 
23 Kelvin Silvania       1B    L    L     6' 1"     185   10-03-1990 

Outfielders 
#  Name                  Pos  Bat  Thw      Ht       Wt       DOB  
11 Felix Caro         LF    R    R     6' 0"     186    03-20-1990 
7 Ernesto Ciprian        OF    R    R     6' 2"     175    02-09-1991 
36 Alexandre De Oliveira OF    L    R     6' 1"     185    07-15-1992 
5 Yancarlo Franco     LF    R    R     5' 9"     145    08-29-1988 
21 Wilfy Gil          CF    R    R     6' 2"     180    11-10-1989 
25 Kelvin Ortiz          OF    R    R     5' 11"    178    10-19-1991
1 Candido Pimentel       OF    S    R     5' 11"    160    07-19-1990 
10 Emilio Sepulveda      OF    R    R     6' 2"     170    08-27-1991 
12 Romy Trinidad         OF    R    R     6' 2"     170    05-14-1991 

Several players are returning, but the roster has undergone a major overhaul, especially on the pitching side. There are two 16 year old in the roster and many 17 and 18 year old players. The DSL Twins team has 14 players who were born in 1991 or earlier.

Here is another exciting thing: What happened to the players who were there in 2008 but are not here in 2009. As you may remember one batter and several pitchersfrom the 2008 DLS squad were included in my lists of the Top Twins' prospects from this off-season. The exiting news is that they might be coming up north to join the GCL or the Elizabethton Twins when these teams start their season.

This is pure speculation, based on 2008 records and rosters. No announcement has been made yet, so it is breaking news :)

Here are the 2008 DSL pitchers with their current age and 2008 record who might be playing in the US this season:

Adrian Salcedo, 18, RHS, 1.65 ERA, 0.842 WHIP, 6.9 K/9, 6.25 K/BB (65.1 IP)
Ramon Acosta, 22, RHS, 0.00 ERA, 0.640 WHIP, 5.8 K/9, 3.89 K/BB (54.2 IP)
Jose Gonzales, 19, LHR, 1.87 ERA, 0.861 WHIP, 11.5 K/9, 4.78 K/BB (33.2 IP)
Leonardo Parra, 22 RHR, 1.41 ERA, 0.761 WHIP, 6.6 J/9, 4.71 K/BB (44.2 IP)
Edison Alvarez, 20, RHR, 2.09 ERA, 1.060 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, 5.29 K/BB, 15 saves (38.2 IP)

The following pitchers probably did not make the cut and were released by the Twins' organization:

Raynard Doran, RHP, 21
Jhon Garcia, RHP, 22 (big strikeout pitcher but oft injured, I would be surprised to see him North)
Deivi Germosen, RHP, 19
Lesmir Vargas, RHP, 22

The following batter and second in my Twins hitting prospect list, most certainly will be playing with the GCL Twins or with the Elizabethton Twins (the DSL league average OPS for 2008 was .660) :

Jairo Perez, C, RH, 21: .338/.437/.525

most likely made the cut:

Oswaldo Arcia, OF, SH, 18: .293/.343/.432

the following position players probably did not make the cut and were released by the organization:

Jhonatan Arias, 20 (.612 OPS)
Jean Carlos Mercedes, 21 (.670 OPS)
Rafael Sanchez, 19 (.570 OPS)
Eliel Sierra, 23 (.717 OPS)
Manuel Soliman, 19 (.640 OPS)
Carlos Vasquez, 18 (.426 OPS)

It would be exciting to see what these young arms and Jairo Perez can do in the US-based minor leagues.

I will try to follow the DSL closely and you will see DSL players appearing in my "who is hot in the minors" lists starting next week sometime after a week or so of games

What's up with Frankie (and Andy) ?

Fransisco Liriano had another unfortunate outing today, pitching only 4 innings, surrounding 4 ER to further diminish the Twins record in day games to 3-12 and on the road to 5-16, dropping the Twins a full 6 games behind the Tigers in the loss column.

Liriano's return last season after his time in Rochester made a lot of Twins' fans hopeful about good things to come this year, based on his successful outings. Has anything changed with Liriano between last season and this season? The answer is yes.

If anything, his velocity is higher this season (average FB 91.5 mph vs. 90.9 mph in 2008, average slider 85.7 mph vs. 83.7 mph in 2008, average change up 84.1 mph vs. 82.1 mph in 2008).

However, there are 2 things different:

He is throwing his changeup less
Last season, Liriano threw 20% changeups. This season just 13.1% of his pitches have been changeups. For comparison purposes: the last three years, Johan Santana threw change ups for about 29% of his pitches and in his Cy Young years Pedro Martinez threw change ups for at least 20% of his pitches. Frankie needs to forget about going to Hollywood and start throwing his change up more.

His release point is all over the place

Here is Liriano's release point from this game (courtesy Brooksbaseball.net) :



as you can see his release point is very inconsistent and their is a good two feet horizontal difference among the release points of all his pitches. Fortunately, unlike Baker, Liriano is not tipping his pitches. Sliders, Fastballs and Change ups are released from all over the place, but they are mixed.

Let's compare this to Liriano's release point from one of his successful outings last September against the Tigers. This is his release point from an early September game, when he pitched 7 innings, walking one, stiking out 9 and having 2 ER:



Even though a few pitches were way off to the right, the main core was fairly consistent.

Let's superimpose the two images:



the release point cores of the successful Liriano (black) and unsuccessful Liriano (red) are hereby circled. As you can see, not only the successful Liriano release points are tighter, they are closer to his body. When he throws further away from his body, bad things happen.

What does need to be done for Liriano to be fixed:

a. Get him throw more change ups and
b. Correct his mechanics so his release point is i. tighter and ii. closer to his body.

Simpler said that done, but Andy is the guy with the supposed magic wand that can fix every ailing pitcher.

But is he?

This season,

Let’s see:

Liriano has been “atrocious”
Perkins has been “atrocious”
Baker has been “atrocious”
Crain has been “atrocious”
Breslow had been “atrocious”

do you think it might actually mean that Andy is the “atrocious” one here? This is a massive drop of performance in more than half of the pitching staff. Last time that happened to a team, the pitching coach was fired (see: Tigers, Detroit, 2008). Who can fix this.

My choice is one of the best pitching coaches available, who happens to be in the Twins' organization (and by coincidence is fully bi-lingual in English and Spanish, thus filling up another void in the team) : Bobby Cuellar.

Why Cuellar?

Cuellar was the pitching coach of the Mariners from 1995-96, the Expos from 1997-2000 and the Twins' AAA teams from 2002-2005 and is now the Red Wings' pitching coach.

Let's look at his track record with different pitchers:

Johan Santana
Before Cuellar: 4.74 ERA, 1.511 WHIP, 5.8 K/9, 1.75 K/BB
After Cuellar: 2.99 ERA, 1.228 WHIP, 11.4 K/9, 2.80 K/BB

Perdo Martinez
Before Cuellar: 3.70 ERA, 1.195 WHIP, 9.2 K/9, 3.17 K/BB
After Cuellar: 1.90 ERA, 0.932 WHIP, 11.4 K/9, 4.55 K/BB

Randy Johnson
Before Cuellar: 3.19 ERA, 1.186 WHIP, 10.7 K/9, 2.83 K/BB
After Cuellar: 2.48 ERA, 1.045 WHIP, 12.3 K/9, 4.52 K/BB

Jeff Nelson
Before Cuellar: 2.76 ERA, 1.299 WHIP, 9.4 K/9, 2.20 K/BB
After Cuellar: 2.17 ERA, 1.081 WHIP, 11.0 K/9, 3.56 K/BB

Norm Charlon:
Before Cuellar: 7.36 ERA, 1.727 WHIP, 4.9 K/9, 0.80 K/BB
After Cuellar: 1.51 ERA, 0.818 WHIP, 11.0 K/9, 3.63 K/BB (same season trade from PHI to SEA)

So, if you were the Twins' brass, who would you rather have as a pitching coach:

the guy who straighten up to Randy Johnson in ‘95 resulting to an 18-2, 2.48 ERA and 192 K season and started the streak of his Cy Young years,

the guy who taught the change up to Pedro Martinez in ‘97 resulting to a 17-8, 1.90 ERA and 219 K season and started the streak of his Cy Young years,

the guy who taught the change up to Johan Santana in ‘02 while in the minors, resulting to an
‘04 20-6, 2.61 ERA and 182 K season and started the streak of his Cy Young years,

or

Andy?

Hard choice?

The difference between night and day - part II

Yesterday, I pointed out the differences of the Twins' performance in day games vs. in night games and showed the following:

• The pitching has been very similar during day games and night games


• The hitters are hitting .163 OPS points lower at day games vs. night games


• This is not a fluke phenomenon, but the Twins have had worse records in day games vs in night games, throughout Gardenhire's tenure, except in the 2007 season

A very astute comment in that post (unfortunately anonymous, so I cannot attribute credit) indicated that there might be another potential explanation, that the Twins are facing better pitchers, and suggested that I look at the OPS of the pitchers in general vs. the OPS of the Twins in those particular day games. Brilliant suggestion.

Here is what I did: I looked at every single day game the Twins played this season and calculated 3 things:

1. The Twins' hitters OPS in that game


2. The year to day Opponents' OPS of the opposing starter for that game excluding that particular game (so not to cause a circular argument)


3. The ratio of the 2 (if the ratio is higher than 1, that means that the Twins were hitter better in that game against that particular starter vs. all his other opponents and if it lesser than 1, it means that the Twins were hitting that pitcher worse than others in other games

Here is a list of every day game the Twins played this year, with the results of the game, the opposing starter and the aforementioned three things:


April 9th, vs Mariners, L 0-2

Twins' hitters OPS: .373
Washburn's YTD OPP OPS in other games: .731
ratio: .511

April 11th @ White Sox, L 0-8

Twins' hitters OPS: .485
Colon's YTD OPP OPS in other games: .866
ratio: .561

April 12th @ White Sox, L 1-6

Twins' hitters OPS: .470
Buehrle's YTD OPP OPS in other games: .638
ratio: .737

April 19th vs Angels, W 3-1

Twins' hitters OPS: .677
Loux' YTD OPP OPS in other games: .877
ratio: .772


April 19th @ Boston, L 1-10

Twins' hitters OPS: .563
Wakefield's YTD OPP OPS in other games: .691
ratio: .814

April 26th @ Indians, L 2-4

Twins' hitters OPS: .592
Laffey's YTD OPP OPS in other games: .692
ratio: .856

May 3rd vs Royals, L 5-7

Twins' hitters OPS: .686
Meche's YTD OPP OPS in other games: .715
ratio: .960

May 10th vs Mariners, L 3-5

Twins' hitters OPS: .654
Bedard's YTD OPP OPS in other games: .655
ratio: .998


May 14th vs Tigers, W 6-5

Twins' hitters OPS: .702
Verlander's YTD OPP OPS in other games: .577
ratio: 1.218


May 16th @ Yankees, L 4-6

Twins' hitters OPS: .721
Chamberlain's YTD OPP OPS in other games: .855
ratio: 0.843

May 17th @ Yankees, L 2-3

Twins' hitters OPS: .572
Burnett's YTD OPP OPS in other games: .822
ratio: 0.695

May 21st @ White Sox, W 20-1

Twins' hitters OPS: 1.273
Colon's YTD OPP OPS in other games: .729
ratio: 1.747


May 25th vs Red Sox, L 6-5

Twins' hitters OPS: .714
Penny's YTD OPP OPS in other games: .926
ratio: 0.771



May 28th vs Red Sox, L 1-3

Twins' hitters OPS: 561
Beckett's YTD OPP OPS in other games: .756
ratio: 0.746


The average ratio of the Twins OPS against a particular pitcher in a day game over that of his opponents in all other games this season is .873 (and somewhat skewed to the Twins' favor by the 20-1 game against Colon.)

My conclusion is that they are not facing better pitchers during the day games, they are just not hitting as well...

The difference between night and day

This season the Twins are:

3-11 in Day games and 21-14 in night games.

The team ERA is 4.81 in day games and 4.81 in night games, so the pitching t is not the problem.

However, the team is hitting .238/.323/.348 (.671 OPS) in day games and .291/.364/.471 (.834 OPS) in night games, which is a huge problem.

Here are how the different Twins' batters are faring during the day and night (today's game is not included) :

Mauer: 1.625 OPS day, 1.297 OPS night (not a problem)
Morneau: .885 OPS day, 1.154 OPS night (somewhat of a problem)
Casilla: .063 OPS day, .513 OPS night (huge problem)
Punto: .596 OPS day, .458 OPS night (not a day/night problem, but...)
Crede: .484 OPS day, .873 OPS night (big problem)
Young: .536 OPS day, .599 OPS night (problem)
Gomez: .687 OPS day, .580 OPS night (probably part of the solution)
Cuddyer: .755 OPS day, .933 OPS night (problem)
Kubel: .721 OPS day, .997 OPS night (problem)
Span: .526 OPS day, .933 OPS night (big problem)
Harris: .345 OPS day, .779 OPS night (huge problem)
Tolbert: .714 OPS day, .453 OPS night (probably part of the solution)
Buscher: .430 OPS day, .730 OPS night (huge problem)
Redmond: .356 OPS day, .823 OPS night (immense problem, esp since Gardy starts him in almost all day games after night games)
Morales: 1.434 OPS day, .570 OPS night (Part of the solution)


What can be done to fix this problem? These 3 quick fixes:

1. Recall Morales and him have start instead of Redmond in all Day games after night games (there is a close to 1.100 OPS difference!)


2. Start Gomez instead of Span in day games (there is a .161 OPS difference)


3. Start Tolbert in day and Harris at night (+ about .350 OPS in day and + about .320 OPS at night)

But, is it a fluke? Let's look at the Gardenhire Twins' record in day vs. night games since 2002:

2009: day: 3-11, night 21-14
2008: day: 26-26, night: 62-49
2007: day: 29-26, night: 50-57
2006: day: 27-20, night: 69-46
2005: day: 25-25, night: 58-54
2004: day: 27-26, night: 65-44
2003: day: 26-24, night: 64-48
2002: day: 25-24, night: 69-43

So other that the unfortunate 2007 season, the Gardenhire Twins are not doing as well in day games as they do in night games. That is a problem that needs to be understood and addressed by the organization...

How bad was Todd Tichenor calling balls and strikes today?

Todd was the home plate umpire in today's game, which the Twins lost 1-3 to the Boston Red Sox. Both teams had complaints about his ball and strikes calls that resulted to the ejection of Veritek and Francona in the 7th inning. In the top of the inning Redmond and Gardenhire also got ejected, but that was for arguing a close call to the plate that went the Red Sox way, allowing a runner to score from 3th on a fly ball to Kubel.

So how bad was his ball and stike calling?

To answer this, I am looking at PitchFx data from Brooksbaseball.net, in all 4 games of the Boston series and more specifically looking at the starters for both teams and the pitches that were in the strike zone but called balls by each of the four home plate umpires.

Here are the data from today's game (green is ball, red is strike, blue is contact):

Swarzak:



Tichenor missed 6 of Swarzak's pitches (green boxes in the strike zone)

Beckett:



Tichenor missed 12 of Beckett's pitches.

In total in today's game Tichenor missed 18 pitches from both starters

Let's look at yesterday's game with Chris Guccione the home plate umpire:

Slowey:



Guccione missed 7 of Slowey's pitches

Dice K:


Guccione missed 9 of DickeK's pitches

In total in yesterday's game Guccione missed 16 pitches from both starters

Let's look at Tuesday's game with Tony Randazzo the home plate umpire:

Blackburn:



Randazzo missed 8 of Blackburn's pitches

Lester:



Randazzo missed 5 of Lester's pitches

In total in Tuesday's game Randazzo missed 13 pitches from both starters

Let's look at Monday's game with Jerry Lane the home plate umpire:

Liriano:



Lane missed 3 of Liriano's pitches

Penny:



Lane missed 6 of Penny's pitches

In total in Monday's game Lane missed 9 pitches from both starters

What conclusion's can one draw from this? First of all, Todd Tichenor today was worse than all umpires in this aspect, but not that much worse than Chris Guccione was last night. I think that the fact that it was a closer game had a lot to do with it. However, he was fairly consistent, since everything outside to a right hand hitter was called a ball within an inch or 2 of the zone (in a similar way that Guccione called all low strikes balls last night). The bottom line is that umpires can affect the game, but players and managers should not let that happen, but making adjustments to a particular umpire's strike zone. On the other hand, Tichenor tossed both catchers pretty quickly without giving time for their managers to step up and intervene...