Super Tuesday will not settle nomination process

Settle in, folks. This is going to be a long one.

An analysis by the Associated Press finds that it is mathematically impossible for any Democratic or Republican candidate to lock up the nomination on February 5, when 20 22 states will hold primary elections in the presidential race.

There will be nearly 1,700 Democratic delegates at stake on Feb. 5, enough to put a candidate well on his or her way to the 2,025 needed to secure the nomination. But even if somehow either Clinton or Obama won every single one of those delegates, it wouldn't be enough. And with two strong candidates, the delegates could be divided fairly evenly because the Democrats award their delegates proportionally — not winner-take- all.

The biggest prizes among the Democratic states are California (370 delegates), New York (232) and Illinois (153). All three states award Democratic delegates proportionally, with most delegates awarded according to the popular vote in individual congressional districts, and the rest based on the statewide vote.

The wild card for the Democrats involves the superdelegates, nearly 800 elected officials and members of the Democratic National Committee. They are free to support any candidate they choose at the national convention, regardless of the outcome of the primaries.

On the Republican side, it is possible for one candidate to emerge as the clear frontrunner, but still a challenge.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney leads the race for delegates to the Republican National Convention with 59. He is followed by former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee with 40 and Arizona Sen. John McCain with 36.

There will be more than 1,000 Republican delegates at stake on Feb. 5, enough to give a candidate a substantial boost toward the 1,191 needed to win the nomination — but only if one man emerges victorious in numerous states.

"I think you could have two or three viable (GOP) candidates" following Super Tuesday, said Ohio Republican Chairman Robert Bennett.

People have been speculating that John Edwards will be forced sooner rather than later to drop out of the race due to his inability to rise above the star power of Clinton and Obama. I think that if Edwards has the money to remain competitive beyond Super Tuesday, he has every incentive to remain in the race. Clinton and Obama are bloodying each other up pretty badly. As the process goes on, and Edwards manages to stay above the fray, he could start to look rather presidential by comparison.

I do not think that Huckabee is going to remain competitive beyond Florida, to say nothing of Super Tuesday. His money troubles are just too severe. But it is possible that the GOP race will become a slugfest between Romney and McCain perhaps right up to the convention.