My cyclist-friend Chip wouldn't be caught dead on a pedaling lawn chair. I found this peculiar product via Astonished Head, who actually rides one. In other news, I pushed my foot ten miles on the Mary Poppins bike today.

Speaking of Chip--his son Andrew turned five last May, and soon the boy will be off to kindergarten. I fear for him when I read about political indoctrination in secondary schools. I don't think Chip understands how badly the system will treat his rowdy offspring.

Peter Peterson says the US can't afford war or peace. In fact, according to his calculations, we can't afford a pot for granny to piss in. But what else can one expect from the president of the deficit-freaked Concord Coalition? Read with caution. I share some of Peterson's concerns about demography, but he overstates the case for the half-empty glass.

Silflay Hraka translates political circumlocutions.

This is likely to be my last entry in the 'lifeaboard' category for the foreseeable future. We have an offer for Dreamweaver, pretty close to asking price. Under the circumstances, I think prudence will force us to accept. With summer coming to a premature end, I shall have to think hard about future plans. For the past two months, while I tried to recover from my broken foot, I have clung to a slender hope that a sale would not have to be consummated, that I would return to Fort Lauderdale in October, launch Dreamweaver, and resume my residence in Dania. Last winter I was frustrated to be stuck there. Now I would be grateful if even that were possible.

Lately many members of the poetry forum Eratosphere have engaged in another interminable 'General Talk' debate of workshop etiquette, critical standards, and various ongoing personality clashes. During the discussion, one person posted a link to The Infallible Poetry Critic, a program that provides random flattery for any verse you submit. It was definitely the right time for some comic relief. If you're embroiled in some arcane dispute today, write a few scurrilous lines describing whoever irritated you, and ask The Infallible Poetry Critic for a review!

The IPC is a service of the folks at Eos Development, a web design outfit with an uncommonly handsome site. Visit Cafe Eos for internal links that will take you to various forums and galleries. I've scarcely started my own exploration, so I have no idea what you'll find, but I'm sure everything will be pleasant to look at.

It seems so bizarre that I could scarcely believe the headline, but the United Kingdom has banned an architectural style. The author of Veritas et Venustas, who describes himself as a 'recovering architect,' ascribes the ban to a bitter rearguard campaign by retreating champions of what used to be called modernism. I trust that David Sucher and Nikos Salingaros will discuss this disgraceful development with the contempt it deserves. I learned about it via 2Blowhards.

Some time ago, via Moira Breen's Inappropriate Offerings, I encountered The Panda's Thumb, a site maintained by a group of young scientists whose favorite pastime is mocking creationism. They find some eminently mockable material. The Panda's Thumb sometimes links to Pharyngula, another scientifically-oriented site, whose author confuses Republicans with creationists. Some are, to be sure, but most aren't. In any case, I find that wise national-policy views are often espoused by people whose religious doctrines I do not share; conversely, while I share the cosmological views of evolutionary science, I know that scientists are no more likely to think well outside their disciplines than anyone else. "Sleaze" is presently the byword among liberals trying to protect the anti-war warrior from his own contradictions. One doesn't have to scroll far down Pharyngula to find an unthinking repetition of leftwing dogma. What's that parable about motes and beams?

We couldn't afford one of the units overlooking the swale of Rose Creek, but still this suburban townhouse complex wouldn't be a bad place to live, if I could forget the orchard.

Seeking to minimize the harm of long-term alcohol consumption, the skipper has taken a score or more of vitamin pills daily for the past six years. His program has worked well, perhaps too well, since it has reduced his incentive to quit the whiskey altogether. At the last check his liver function was normal, even though his relapses into heavy boozing have continued. This is the perverse downside of vitamin therapy--a manipulative and methodical person can use it to extend a drinking career that would otherwise end years sooner.

Like many alcoholics of northern European descent, Tim has the distinctive metabolic profile of someone whose liver produces an abundance of the alcohol-metabolizing enzyme tetrahydroisoquinalone. High-THIQ individuals really enjoy drinking. In the early phases of habituation, they actually perform better on tests of mental and physical abilities when they are mildly intoxicated. Their perceived benefit from alcohol is not illusory. Positive reinforcement leads to a powerful and resistant addiction that persists even after cumulative damage begins taking its inexorable toll.

Now via Dean's World, I have learned that a very different sort of drug promises redemption to people who struggle with such intransigent addictions. But in view of Tim's experiences with pills--and my own skepticism about treating psychological problems with drugs--I remain doubtful that naltrexone will prove the panacea its promoters expect. Still it's intriguing to wonder whether this substance, which suppresses the specific pleasure-response to alcohol, in combination with acamprosate, which reduces craving, might provide the support that Tim needs to put his destructive habit behind him.

Via RealClearPolitics I have found a useful article by Adam Sparks, who has neatly linked sources for various Kerry distortions, evasions, and outright lies. The Jig Is Up for Kerry, says Sparks. That was obvious before the jig even began, when James Taranto started appending "who by the way fought in Vietnam" to every mention of Kerry's name. The real question of this electoral cycle is whether the Democratic Party will implode along with its candidate. And beyond this election, the party faces a momentous choice. Will it become a permanently marginalized leftist cadre, or a revitalized, responsible opposition that discards its collectivist fantasies and challenges big-government Republicans from the right?

Via Brothers Judd, I have found another worthwhile review of Occidentalism, a recent anwer to Edward Said's debunked Orientalism. Reviewer Niall Ferguson begins thus:

Orientalism – Edward Said's scathing critique of the way European scholars portrayed what used to be called "the Orient" – has spawned a host of imitators. In university libraries the world over, there are whole shelves of "post-colonial" tomes, each dedicated to laying bare the wicked, racist assumptions of this or that early anthropologist. Devoted though one may have been to Sanskrit poetry, steeped though another may have been in Islamic law, they were all, to a man, despicable "Orientalists", taking for granted the innate superiority of the West and condescending odiously to the East.

A few historians, however, have sought to turn Said's argument around. In Ornamentalism, David Cannadine portrayed Victorian colonial administrators as projecting their own romantic notions of a pre-lapsarian, Merrie England on to native cultures. Now, in Occidentalism, Ian Buruma and Avishai Margalit have gone a step further. They argue that the most radical critics of the West today – including Osama bin Laden and other "Islamist" extremists – are not the upholders of pure, untainted Eastern values. Their extreme anti-Western ideologies are, paradoxically, in large measure Western in origin.

As rare readers know, I have made this point repeatedly here. It cannot be stressed often enough. Ferguson closes his essay with a reflection on World War Four and an echo of Patton on purpose of war.

"They love Pepsi-Cola, but we love death," declared one Taliban jihadi shortly before the American invasion of Afghanistan. The sad truth is that he and his kind generally love Pepsi-Cola too. And when radical anti-Westerners assume that Americans are weakened by their manifest love of life, they gravely underestimate their enemy. For what the invaders of Afghanistan and Iraq are trained to love is Pepsi-Cola and killing.

Contrary to the fantasies of generations of extremists, there is not much to be said for encouraging soldiers to seek death. The key is to encourage them to inflict it on the enemy. And that is one of many reasons why this generation of Occidentalists is as unlikely to defeat the good old West as their many predecessors over the past two centuries.

Perhaps. I certainly hope it is so. However if this generation is in fact not Oriental at all, but the Occident distorted and reflected back upon itself, matters may not be so simple. Brothers Judd also provide a link to this previous interview in which Paul Berman describes the Western origins of Islamism. If the West is really fighting itself through Muslim proxies, then the parallels with the Cold War are stronger, and concern about the Enemy Within should be greater.

You can't possibly understand this election campaign unless you know how Democrats rely on foo to counteract baz. Thanks to John Weidner for linking the Resplendent Mango. I have to get her on the permanent list one of these days. I've been lazy since the last redesign.

The skipper has sunk himself so deep in debt, I wonder whether he'll ever surface into solvency. Selling the boat would help a little; Dreamweaver's loan amounts to a fifth of the total debt that remains after sale of our house. The rest is a consequence of the rescue effort that recapitalized the swine business, saving seventy-odd partners from joint and several bankruptcy. The firm is moving back toward profitability now, and Tim has a plan to escape his personal encumbrance; but the recovery will take several years at best, and meanwhile his income will mostly disappear into debt service. With such a cash shortage, it's still impossible to plan any cruising, and if someone made an acceptable offer, the boat would have to go.

It's a pity, really, since Bush needs me to register in Florida this November. I'm another snowbird who would like to vote where it counts. But too many of my winter-fleeing brethren have been voting in Florida--and most of them are New York Democrats, voting twice. It's time to net some of these high flying coots. Between them, and the felons, and the military undercount, the real scandal in Y2K Florida is that the Democrats came so close.

Addendum: A board meeting is scheduled for September 8. Its outcome will determine whether Dreamweaver stays on the market. If the boat goes, I shall probably rename and relocate Fresh Bilge. It's a travesty for me to keep a sailing blog while stuck in mid-continent.

Under the headline Swift Boat Accounts Incomplete, the Washington Post has published its own incomplete and misleading account of events in Vietnam thirty-five years ago. In an evident attempt to whitewash Kerry by omission, WaPo neglects to mention that the 'Christmas in Cambodia' story has been withdrawn, and that Kerry has also altered his own version of events on the day of the Rassman rescue. Thus there is no basis for WaPo's conclusion that "Kerry's accusers have succeeded in raising doubts about his war record, [but] they have failed to come up with sufficient evidence to prove him a liar." Lies have already been implicitly acknowledged. Moreover, this conclusion is printed at the beginning of the article, which then bogs down in a deliberately contrived morass of contradictory detail. The most damning fact of all is never mentioned: 254 Swifties have signed the affadavit disputing Kerry's version of events. Only a handful support him.

Regardless of what happened all those years ago, Kerry is running for Commander-in-Chief now. He has consistently voted against sensible policies for national defense as a senator. If his positions had prevailed, the Soviet Empire might have won the Cold War. Moreover, Kerry has never really recanted the extreme, false, or erroneous statements he made during the early 1970's. It would seem he has learned nothing since the bitter aftermath of his days in combat. That is the real issue, and the real reason why this man is so signally unqualified to serve in the office he seeks.

Theatre de la Jeune Lune was incorporated in the United States on March 29, 1979, according to the program I picked up last night. This is the company's twenty-fifth anniversary season. It has featured a revival of the successful production of Carmen. Opera is an unusual venture even for a company that has presented the work of playwrights from Shakespeare and Moliere to the contemporary Czech, Pavel Kohout. I first saw a Juene Lune production sometime in the 1980's. It was a performance of Twelfth Night. Malvolio was particularly memorable.

During recent years I virtually quit attending concerts or theaters. Their cost has outpaced inflation, and Fargo has very little to offer. But Jeune Lune tickets are still only $30 for general seating at a weekend show. As ever, the company performs in its converted warehouse near the Mississippi River. That neighborhood has changed greatly in recent years. Many more of the old brick buildings have undergone conversion. Some have become condominiums. To the south an enormous parking facility had grown over the abandoned rail yard that used to serve the warehouse district. The car park actually has agreeable architecture, with much exterior brick that integrates it with the older structures nearby. To the west lie many low-rise apartments and condominiums. Vlad and Steve have rented one with a corner window and a panaorama of the downtown skyline. Vlad walks to work in one of the office towers.

Before the show, Steve and I ate a leisurely meal at Origami, a Japanese restaurant across the street from Jeune Lune. When we strolled into the theatre, everything looked exactly as I remembered it. The audience sat in a U above a large, bare stage. Two pianists provided most of the music. A pair of video displays put text where the audience could see it without losing sight of the action. And the show was very active, turning its cast into live sets and scenery. The only props were some bare tables brought in for the tavern scene. Christina Baldwin made a fine Carmen--youthful, pretty, and vigorous enough to carry off the role convincingly. While her voice might have lacked the power to fill a major opera house, it more than sufficed in the vaulted, brick-walled space of Jeune Lune's warehouse. As Jose, Bradley Greenwald also performed well. I particularly liked his clear upper register in the softer, more sentmental passages of the Bizet score. After the show the whole cast stood in the lobby to shake hands with well-wishers--an endearing tradition possible only for a small company. If I lived in Minneapolis I would have to attend Jeune Lune more often than twice in two decades. The company has a website now, and Carmen still has one last weekend to run. It's easy to buy a ticket on line. Go for it!

Last night I watched the fine Forman film Amadeus for about the ninth time, as a prelude for today's trip to Minneapolis, where I will be attending a performance of the opera Carmen this evening. I won't be doing much blogging this weekend. I may not even take the laptop along, though separation anxiety may yet induce me to haul the heavy little satchel with all my gadgets.

Two articles highlight the idiocy of Jimmy Carter in his efforts to 'monitor' human rights and election processes. One, in FrontPage Magazine, explores how the Kerry platform echoes the language and objectives of Carter foreign policy. The other, in Opinion Journal, reviews how the Chavez government may have defrauded the nation of Venezuela during the recent recall election, right under the noses of Carter and his cronies.

Under the American Constitution, citizens enjoy freedom of speech, not freedom to conduct their own foreign policy. It's high time that State and Justice departments reminded Carter of his obligations and limitations. The US and the world paid a high enough price for his dreadful presidency--through the Iranian revolution in particular. Now the old fool's post-presidency is giving Marxism a new, oil-funded lease on life throughout the Caribbean Basin and beyond. Carter's baneful influence seems likely to endure long after his death.

From the Washington Times (temporary link only) comes this account of a raid during recent fighting in Fallujah:

We have obtained dramatic video footage of a U.S. Air Force F-16 jet bombing a group of Iraqi terrorists or former Saddam Hussein guerrillas during recent fighting in Fallujah.

The black and white footage begins with an Air Force pilot pointing a laser-designator to direct a 1,000-pound guided bomb toward a building in Fallujah. The action is part of the Air Force's close air support mission for U.S. and Iraqi ground forces.

While the bomb is heading toward the building, suddenly a large group of people appears on a street and they begin running toward a battle.

"I've got numerous individuals on the road. Want me to take those out? " the pilot asks a controller.

"Take them out," comes the quick reply.

Another voice watching the action states: "It's not a good day for them."

The group includes at least 30 Iraqis who are moving as a group rapidly up the street, apparently unaware they have been targeted by the U.S. warplane in the area.

"Ten seconds," says the pilot.

"Impact," the voice says as a huge plume of smoke rises from the bomb blast.

Another voice says: "Oh, dude" as he surveys the destruction.

This is a guy-thing--very difficult for most women or girlie-men to comprehend. It's called war. Pacifists can't abolish wars by pretending all conflict results from mere misunderstandings. But they can lose wars that way. Losing to the Vietcong cost Americans little, though it caused unspeakable tragedies in Asia. Losing to this bunch would be a different matter. Consider the carnage at Ninny Central (UN headquarters) in Baghdad, or any of the other suicide-bomb targets during the Iraq war. Then imagine such attacks happening in the US, employing ever more sinister weapons, as they will again and again, if we fail to finish a fight we did not choose: World War Four.

Microsoft is so big, it needs a foreign policy. Consider this passage from an article in the technology publication, ZDNet, which I accessed via the business page of WorldNet Daily.

Speaking at the International Geographical Union congress in Glasgow on Wednesday, Microsoft's top man in its geopolitical strategy team, Tom Edwards, revealed how one of the biggest companies in the world managed to offend one of the biggest countries in the world with a software slip-up.

When coloring in 800,000 pixels on a map of India, Microsoft colored eight of them a different shade of green to represent the disputed Kashmiri territory. The difference in greens meant Kashmir was shown as non-Indian, and the product was promptly banned in India. Microsoft was left to recall all 200,000 copies of the offending Windows 95 operating system software to try and heal the diplomatic wounds. "It cost millions," Edwards said.

Another social blunder from Microsoft saw chanting of the Koran used as a soundtrack for a computer game and led to great offence to the Saudi Arabia government. The company later issued a new version of the game without the chanting, while keeping the previous editions in circulation because U.S. staff thought the slip wouldn't be spotted, but the Saudi government banned the game and demanded an apology. Microsoft then withdrew the game.

The software giant managed to further offend the Saudis by creating another game in which Muslim warriors turned churches into mosques. That game was also withdrawn.

Damned if you do, damned if you don't. Virtually all world political maps distinguish the 'disputed territory' of Kashmir from both India and Pakistan. Microsoft employees were following an accepted standard that defers to Muslim sensibilities while slighting secular India, where the Hindu majority uneasily tolerates the religion of intolerance, whose adherants constitute a tenth of the enormous population, and a majority in some districts. Of course there are no Hindu-majority districts in Pakistan. Such horrors are not permitted in Islamic countries. Indeed Pakistan is so hostile to Hindus that scarcely any have lived there since the bloodbath of partition. Were Pakistan to gain control of Kashmir, Hindus would be forced to flee. But that would not be 'ethnic cleansing.' The world would take no notice.

Deference is not enough. No matter how many maps Microsoft shades or computer games it censors, militant Muslims will never be satisfied unless the whole world is forcibly converted to the 'true faith.' Lawrence Auster has published another article about the centrality of jihad in Islam. Yesterday I emphasized the way in which Western totalitarian theory has facilitated a rebirth of Islamic militancy. Tomorrow I may contemplate how oil money empowers the enemies of civilization--including many non-Muslims. But today I recommend that you read the Auster article and think about Islam itself.

One caveat: I don't share Auster's pessimism about Iraq. While success is not assured, I think Bush is correct to believe that freedom has a fighting chance there. Islamic life is oppressive. Given an opportunity, most Muslims would probably prefer to privatize their religious practices, as Westerners have done.

Iran's leaders are getting hysterical. They must sense that they've overplayed their game, that their open defiance will soon goad the US and/or Israel to act preemptively and destroy their nuclear program. So they threaten preemption of their own, though they lack the means to deliver it, for the time being. That may change, thanks to Clinton-era technology transfers.

David Warren observed recently that it was time to move the flypaper. If you've read Warren and encountered his 'flypaper' explanation of Iraq strategy, you'll understand. But the US military remains commendably cautious about operations. It takes a long time to prepare for major action. I see no evidence of any large-scale redeployment toward Iran or Syria before the US election. The world is holding its breath; but even if Bush wins a mandate, I'm not at all sure that he will ever move the flypaper. He may simply leave it in Afghanistan and Iraq. And the flies will keep coming.

What of the 'fly hatcheries?' asks Warren. Well, maybe Bush hopes they'll run out of eggs. Or maybe he plans to pour some oil on them, along with the JDAMs that already have Heads Up, Bushehr! painted along their cases.

Another cold spell has descended on the plains. This has truly been the year without a summer. Yesterday Fargo's temperature dipped to 39F, and this morning it hit 34F, the lowest ever observed so early in the 'autumn.' Frost occurred in many places. Though there was no killing freeze, these conditions are bad for the region's row crops, which are developing too slowly, and running out of time to ripen. Fierce winds and chilly water have discouraged me from sailing at Floyd Lake; I'm ready to give up and haul the Hobie Wave to storage on the next acceptable day.

Premature frost also makes me think of warmer climes, but it's still impossible to plan for winter. The Sabre remains unsold, sucking funds for dockage and insurance, while income remains too scarce for me to sketch even a tentative travel schedule. Only one date is certain: Tim's gig at the National Book Fair on October 9th. Yes, the revolution will be televised, though I don't have the details yet. Tim gets a full-scale, twenty-five minute reading, and so does our friend Professor Gwynn. They'll be introduced by Laura Bush, and our host will be old acquaintance Dana Gioia, now chairman of the NEA. If there has to be an NEA, he's the best chairman I can imagine.

Goaded by the frost and the waning hours of sun, I must soon decide whether to drive East--so I can continue alone to Florida in mid-October--or fly--in which case I must return glumly to Fargo with Tim. In either case, we plan to visit friends in Massachusetts first, then join the festivities in Washington. After the Fair, I hope to visit the Chesapeake and check out the Annapolis Boat Show, which begins on October 14th. Tim insists on flying back to North Dakota for the opening of pheasant season on the 16th. Hunting is for the birds, as far as I'm concerned. Judging from the weather this summer, there may be snow on the ground by then.

It takes true journalistic chutzpah for a 'reporter' to express his disgust at American acquisitiveness while touring the wreckage of Punta Gorda, Florida. No doubt BBC correspondent Daniel Lak--whose name should really be spelled 'lack'--will also be assigned to the rubble of the next al Qaeda attack, where he can blame the victims for that as well.

You've heard of a red herring. Well, that's no neon in MSNBC's fishbowl. Military Records Counter Kerry Critic, claims a headline linked today by Drudge. But the text of the article belies the lead. After prying open the military records of Larry Thurlow, the Kerry campaign (through 'impartial' journalistic allies) is trying to discredit him by citing a discrepancy between his current account of the Rassmann rescue and the military report that formed the basis for his own Bronze Star.

"It's like a Hollywood presentation here, which wasn't the case," Thurlow said last night after being read the full text of his Bronze Star citation. "My personal feeling was always that I got the award for coming to the rescue of the boat that was mined. This casts doubt on anybody's awards. It is sickening and disgusting."

Thurlow said he would consider his award "fraudulent" if coming under enemy fire was the basis for it. "I am here to state that we weren't under fire," he said. He speculated that Kerry could have been the source of at least some of the language used in the citation.

Evidently Kerry tried to make everyone look heroic, hoping the others would keep their mouths shut. Instead Thurlow has spurned this dishonorable honor.

Thurlow and other anti-Kerry veterans have repeatedly alleged that Kerry was the author of an after-action report that described how his boat came under enemy fire. Kerry campaign researchers dispute that assertion, and there is no convincing documentary evidence to settle the argument. As the senior skipper in the flotilla, Thurlow might have been expected to write the after-action report for March 13, but he said that Kerry routinely "duked the system" to present his version of events.

Perhaps it's time for some forensic examination. Are any of the military records handwritten? Are there identifiable notes or marks on the margins? If the documents are typed, can comparison be made with other contemporaneous paperwork filed by Kerry and others? The claim that Kerry "duked the system" can be proven or disproven objectively--if anyone still believes in such a thing as objectivity.

My friend Chip hates to wear a tie or speak in public--even the small, admiring public of his investor group. With deep reluctance Chip convened the annual partnership meeting this week to explain why his company's revenue has risen 40% this year, nearly doubling the bottom line, and how his young CFO could justify projections of similar results in the future. At least he didn't have to make lame excuses like these. Hemlock may lose a few extremities, if the Chairman's relatives ever discover his complicity in concealing S-Meg's mismanagement.

The smell of fear permeates Private Office at the top of S-Meg Tower this morning, as the company secretary, the company lawyer, the company gwailo, the company spotty accountant and some other company’s greasy auditor humbly submit the draft interim results announcement to the Big Boss for his majestic approval. Most companies in Hong Kong are reporting good earnings for the first half of 2004, and after the impact of SARS on profits in 2003, year-on-year improvements look doubly impressive. But not at S-Meg Holdings. Last year’s first-half result was dismal. The spotty bean counter employed exceptional creative flair to make the bottom line look closer to half-dismal. We then heaped blame upon the totally innocent killer virus, with all the righteous defiance of the Dongguan police sending Alex Ho off for re-education through labour.

Twelve months on, and the numbers are still dismal. But there is no pestilence to hold culpable, and the scrofulous accountant’s creative powers are exhausted. It has largely been left to me to craft an explanation that plausibly exonerates the management and leaves the world with the impression that the company’s visionary Chairman and Chief Executive is expertly steering S-Meg through a short rough patch to assured growth and prosperity – and is not a bumbling buffoon draining the family fortune through an inept, outdated approach to Canto-capitalist wheeling and dealing. “I am pleased to report to shareholders,” I read out, “that management has continued to overcome some serious external challenges during the last six months, during which time we have taken the opportunity to position the company for the significant opportunities that lie ahead.” The Big Boss nods silently as I pile the excuses on – intensely competitive environment … serious concerns about interest rates … a possible slowdown in China … the need to consolidate our position … the value we attach to prudence … the slowness of the markets … the dog that ate the homework … the fact that it won’t happen again next time, honest. It ends on a cheery note – “I therefore greatly look forward to reporting very healthy results for the full year.” No screaming, no spluttering, no fist banging on table, no embarrassing, hard-to-explain dismemberment of the auditor. Sighs of relief all round as we creep out of the office. That’s all over. For another six months.

And Chip thinks his meetings are stressful...

John Hinderaker and Scott Johnson of Power Line have somehow persuaded the Minneapolis Star & Tribune to publish a column on Kerry's lies about Vietnam. For most of the mainstream press this story remains unmentionable, unless linked for 'balance' to phony canards about Bush.

Are we living in reality or some fevered fantasy from 1968? I'm not the only one thinking of White Rabbit and The Matrix. I'm not the only one asking Just how far down does this rabbit hole go?

Belmont Club has commented upon the Norman Podhoretz essay that I and many other bloggers linked Tuesday. (If you haven't read it yet, set aside half an hour at your earliest opportunity. Podhoretz offers the most coherant explanation of World War Four that I've encountered anywhere.) But by titling my own remarks Neo vs Paleo, I hinted at a critique that Wretchard has made more explicit. Here is the central passage of his argument:

[The Bush doctrines] implied a revolution in international affairs, not simply because they overturned the institutional framework of the last half century, but because they introduced a normative standard into what was previously the absolute prerogative of nation-states. Woven through his account in ways that almost become a personal history are Podhoretz's recollections of how the Left, of which he was once an adherent, suborned, subverted and distorted -- at times almost fatally -- the American response to each of the challenges it faced.

While schematically relegated to the background, the machinations of the Left in the World War IV article repeatedly threaten to upstage the notional villain, radical Islamism. By placing the War on Terror in serial with World War 2 and the Cold War (World War 3), the article makes it hard to wholly escape the notion that the West has been gripped by one auto-immune crisis after another, first against monsters of its own conjury (the Nazis and the Communists) and this time, against a parasitic infection spreading over its weakened corpus. Watered by the defeatism of Jimmy Carter and egged on by the Western "intelligensia", radical Islam appears less a malevolent force in its own right then the longed-for "exterminator" which will carry out the sentence of guilt which the Left has passed. Podhoretz himself briefly skirts this possibility, then flinches:

In World War III, we as a nation persisted in spite of the inevitable setbacks and mistakes and the defeatism they generated, until, in the end, we won. ... To the people living both within the Soviet Union itself and in its East European empire, it brought liberation from a totalitarian tyranny. ... Suppose that we hang in long enough to carry World War IV to a comparably successful conclusion. What will victory mean this time around? Well, to us it will mean the elimination of another, and in some respects greater, threat to our safety and security.

It will eliminate the threat until the nihilism of the West creates yet another. Surely it is fair to ask, whether the Left, having taken down the poster of Che Guevara and replaced it with Osama will not find yet another false idol to worship the moment he is dead. The greatest tragedy would be to find that after the last Islamist has been destroyed, and one hundred thousand illiterate men annihilated by the greatest fighting force on earth, that yet another new "destroyer" anointed by the Left is in its stead. Podhoretz knows that:

... because that threat cannot be eliminated without "draining the swamps" in which it breeds, victory will also entail the liberation of another group of countries from another species of totalitarian tyranny.

Therefore it is necessary, but not enough, to win another victory against oppressors in other countries; it is also past the time for the West to triumph against the dark recesses of its own soul.

For the past few years, I have said this again and again, in various contexts: Islamist extremism is not really Islamic at all; it is a hybrid ideology drawn from Twentieth Century totalitarian sources and transplanted into the Third World, like Mao's communism. If one views the conflict from this perspective, Islam is only a weapon with which the revolutionary elite seek to rally support from an ignorant and superstitious populace. The Otherness of Islam has long since been contaminated by contact with modernity. The leaders of Islamist movements, like the despots of the Middle East's nation-states, have been educated and inspired by the West. Osama bin Laden, the ultimate Other, is just a distorted reflection of European self-loathing.

Addendum: If you think my title or thesis extreme, consider Ted Rall.

Yesterday I pushed my healing foot for seven miles--two loops of the fancy concrete path through the park along Rose Creek. I passed two joggers and one other bicyclist during half an hour of pedalling on a lovely summer afternoon. Considering the climate in Fargo, such usage on an optimal day bespeaks a very low annual rate. I wonder what that path costs the park department per user mile.

Local taxpayers may grimace when they get their bills, but they never seem to question how the town's twenty-seven planners spend public money. Fargo has binged for years on its growing tax base. Stop signs and other traffic directives are posted at frequent intervals along the Rose Creek path. I know firsthand what signage costs. As a former property manager, I also know how expensive nursery trees are, and how much work it takes to maintain them as they grow. These costs must also be factored into any honest calculation of user benefit. One might also calculate the private value foregone in public land, and the price of its acquisition.

Back from my ride, I encountered an article on a seemingly unrelated topic. Francis Porretto begins his disquisition on Fault Isolation with a discussion of how engineers solve problems, but his true purpose is analysis of flaws in public policy, and he winds up discussing issues that have more currency in the Midwest than the Northeast.

There's an ongoing effort to get the world's significant agricultural nations, all of which have subsidy programs for their domestic farmers, to drop both the subsidies and any barriers they've erected against imported foodstuffs. The idea is splendid. It would radically improve the efficiency of the world's markets for food. It would put a halt to the massive overproduction of subsidized and price-supported commodities, and their purchase by governments which must subsequently give or throw them away. But there are a few niggling little obstacles to be overcome on the way.

First, farmers like subsidies. Wouldn't you? The most important American farmers, from a political standpoint, are major agribusness corporations that have a huge degree of political clout, especially within their states of concentration. These have lobbied tirelessly for the retention and expansion of farm subsidies, and for the continuing strict regulation of the relevant crops and markets. More, they've harnessed the image of "family farming" to their service.

Second, the people who run the subsidy programs have an interest in seeing them continue. It's quite simple: their jobs are on the line. If agriculture were to return to the free market, what need would there be for the tens of thousands of employees in the federal and state agricultural bureaucracies? And that's to say nothing about the inherent attractions of wielding power.

Third, national prestige is involved. For example, for quite some time Japan forbade the importation of rice, as a sop to the pride of Japanese rice farmers and to Japanese national pride about being self-sufficient in their most important staple. In consequence, tracts of land within major Japanese cities, including Tokyo itself, were devoted to raising rice, even though those plots could have sold for a thousand times their agricultural-capital value. The French have a similar attitude toward butter and cheese. Such attitudes are highly resistant to logical refuation.

While I agree with Porretto's ideal--less government--his political analysis misses a few points. A resident of Long Island, he lives a long way from the Midwest, and he probably doesn't know about the anti-corporate farming laws that shape the agricultural sector in the heartland. He thinks that agricultural subsidies benefit big business. Actually the issues are much more complex.

Agriculture is not a single entity but a multitude of industries, operating under very different rules from place to place. Pork, to take one ironic example, trades in a nearly free market, constrained only by some limited cartelization in the packing industry. Other commodity producers, such as peanut farmers, subsist in a hothouse of government controls and perquisites. (Peanuts can only be grown and sold under federally-issued license.)

One of the most bizarre side-effects of farm subsidy can be seen in the voting patterns among actual family farmers of the Midwest, where corporations are forbidden to own agricultural land. North and South Dakota both have congressional delegations of two senators and one representative. All are Democrats, yet these states consistently vote Republican by huge margins in presidential elections. Why the discrepancy? Those legislative seats are bought with farm handouts. Democrats have long been freer with other people's money.

Contrary to Porretto's impression, agricultural policy is not determined by a cabal of big government and big business, but by the perverse incentive built into a legislature that affords thinly-populated states disproportunate sway. The hidden cost of our bicamerally-structured congress is an enduring political alliance between subsidy-hungry farmers and big-city socialists.

Outer Life thinks political blogging is a waste of electrons. Here's how the Outer Author begins his wry little essay:

It occurred to me the other day that a blog would be an ideal vehicle to discuss politics and issues. I wonder if anyone's thought of that before?

Unfortunately, I hate discussing politics so someone else will have to figure out whether the whole politics-and-blog thing works.

When I was young, I perceived some people weren't thinking the way I was thinking on the issues of the day. Something had to be done. So I studied the issues, I wrote about the issues, I debated the issues. I tried to change the way others thought about the issues.

I never did.

Perhaps Outer Life was too impatient. It takes years to influence anyone, and youth imagines it has no time for anything. The old, who really are running out of time, need never see the consequences of their influence, so they are often eager to dispense it.

I grew up in a very political New York City family. My parents read the New York Times before the current management made a mockery of the company motto. (I propose rebranding: all the fits we choose to print.) James Reston and Tom Wicker were household deities. As a boy, I could imagine no higher calling than political punditry.

Outer Life is lucky. Like most Americans, he can afford to regard politics as a spectator sport, even during World War Four. In too many other countries politics is a blood sport; and some remnant of that Old World bloody-mindedness persists in the big cities of the East, home to most of the county's professional pundits. The bloodless passions of our denatured politics arouse such people unduly. The rest of the nation watches in some bemusement.

Recently I noticed something every weblogger likes to see: an increase in traffic. But my server stats tell me the traffic is commercial and entirely unwelcome. I'm getting hits from an array of sites whose proprietors evidently imagine they can sell products or services by using server logs as billboards. I wonder if other bloggers have noticed an increase in such clutter, and whether anything can be done to block it. These interlopers obstruct my own use of the logs to study legitimate traffic. No matter how small the cost of their automated activity, I cannot imagine it produces any profit. Who would buy from a vandal? Well, maybe a goth would.

I downloaded a full backup of my site the other day, something I haven't done before. Previously I would back up the Moveable Type database only. The whole site runs to 50meg, even in compressed form, and my connection is too slow for such a colossus. But my distrust of my host has grown since my problems last month, so I plugged into a cable at Chip's office. Even there the process took longer than I expected, as my Symantec software searched the downloaded files. It found about ten worms and viruses. I was horrified. It's another black mark for my host. I wish I knew where the damn things had been lurking. Distracted by Chip's Denali photos, I neglected to check; I just okayed the deletions.

No, this is not the proposed title of another Matrix sequel. I refer to so-called neoconservatives, and their dispute with paleoconservatives: David Horowitz versus Lew Rockwell, or Norman Podhoretz versus Pat Buchanan.

The elder Podhoretz has written an enormous article for Commentary, now reprinted in FrontPage Magazine. His topic is World War Four. Podhoretz provides an irrefutable timeline of this other great conflict that emerged from the wreckage of World War Two. I have written often about what we might call the present war. I even proposed WWV for this fifth world-spanning war since The Birth of the Modern (the title of a history by Paul Johnson). But I suspect IV will stick, if it's good enough for Belmont Club and the Pod.

America enjoyed ten years of 'holiday from history' when the Soviet Union fell. Most of us refused to acknowledge that another conflict was already under way. Now some believe that our nation remains at war only because of 'aggression' it committed after repeated attacks. They imagine that the conflict would end if we just elected a president whose second language is French rather than Spanish, or if we brought home every soldier to fortify the Mexican border, or if we winked at a Second Holocaust. They are wrong.

Squally remnants of tropical storm Earl have swept the length of the Caribbean in record time, approaching northeast Nicaragua already. With its circulation broken, this system became embedded in a fast easterly flow at the surface, gaining no latitude and taking a course well to the left of all models. Gale force winds have hurtled west along several broad arcs, and I'm sure the Caribbean is no pleasant place for small craft at present.

In the open Atlantic, hurricane Danielle has proven quite resilient, retaining hundred mile per hour winds despite cooler waters along its poleward path. Tropical storms behave in quirky ways: sometimes they falter, as Earl has done, and sometimes they survive significant environmental changes. I surmise that Danielle has moved into a region where colder temperatures aloft have matched or exceeded the degree of cooling at the sea surface. This combination could sustain convection longer than otherwise would be the case.

No other systems threaten to develop at this time, though the GFS model continues to show a tropical storm northeast of the Bahamas in a week or so. Tropical forecasting remains a more inexact science than weather prediction in temperate zones.

Lately I've returned to the poetry website Eratosphere, where I was never delisted as a moderator, despite long absences. Sometimes I post critiques of poems that I encounter in the metrical verse forum, but I also participate in 'general talk' from time to time. Last week a new and moderately acccomplished member withdrew from Eratosphere after workshop debate with people he regarded as metrical fundamentalists. It was not the first such departure, nor will it be the last.

As usual, the episode triggered a lively discussion among long-term members. I won't bore you with the technical issues. You don't really need to know what attributes distinguish accentual from accentual-syllabic verse. But there is a distinct factional division among Sphereans. Some individuals are so distrustful and resentful of authority that they regard the site's moderators with profound and unallayable suspicion. They see collegiality as favoritism and consensual rules as diktats. Such self-styled non-conformists reflexively apologize for anyone who leaves in a snit. When some of us dispute a mediocre poet who asserts an arbitrary redefinition of established concepts, our postmoderns hail a persecuted dissident. They politicize everything, and while they are obsessed with accountability for authority, they exempt anyone they perceive as powerless.

Surely they would exempt Lynndie England as well. Toward the end of her article in today's Opinion Journal, Dorothy Rabinowitz describes 'current moral accounting' as it applies to the most celebrated of the Abu Ghraib guards. My switch to this topic may seem a bizarre juxtaposition, but bear with me for a moment more.

In no other period in memory than this--even granted the exceptional political bitterness in the air--have we seen so persistent an effort to deflect blame from the individuals actually guilty of perpetrating reprehensible acts, to others. In our current moral accounting, apparently, the idea of individual guilt doesn't appear to count for much, certainly when it comes to the military. Workaday privates are the salt of the earth, at the mercy of the amoral men wearing brass--so films and cartoons have instructed us for decades. That we are not, in the matter of Abu Ghraib, dealing with cartoons, seems to have been clear to at least one soldier of modest rank--Sgt. Joseph Darby of the 372nd--when he downloaded the pictures and turned them in.

We have not heard the last of Abu Ghraib or its principals. It still remains to be seen whether those bent on portraying Pfc. England and her colleagues as victims, misled by superiors, will accord them the respect of judging them for what they were--individuals who had at a certain time and place, obeyed the dictates of cruelty and sadism, imperatives that did not come to them from above--rather than excusing them as creatures too lowly to know right from wrong.

On the poetry site, reflexive postmoderns will blame terminology, concepts, and rampant authoritarianism rather than hold an individual accountable for his actions. When a resident gadfly mourned the loss our site suffered when deprived of anyone's poetic offerings, regardless of their quality, I replied with an irony that went unacknowledged. "With respect to the loss experienced by those individuals who withdraw: they lose an opportunity to develop and advance in their work. Their loss as artists outweighs whatever loss we suffer as critics when deprived of the opportunity to read and comment on their work."

I daresay it will also be a small loss to the Army if Lynndie England does time. But to blame General Abizaid, Secretary Rumsfeld, or the President for her misdeeds is ludicrous and destructive. Whoever counseled her to change her story is abetting, however unwittingly, the destruction of civil society, just as apologists for any and all eccentricities undermine the basis for formal verse.

Many people in the West, including America's president, seem unable to fathom the religious motivation for jihadist war. In a FrontPage article, Laurence Auster summarizes a recent speech by Mary Habeck, a military historian who has made a particular study of jihad. Know the enemy, rare reader. Face the truth. Jihad is not a heresy, nor is it an inward purgation. It is war, in the phenomenal world, waged with fire and sword. Muslims are the only crusaders nowadays, even as they imagine crusades directed against them--a notion President Bush reinforced with a careless, secular use of the word 'crusade' shortly after 9/11.

The world has not seen a genuine Christian crusade in many centuries. And most people are unaware that the medieval crusades were undertaken to secure a Holy Land where Christian pilgrims had come under attack by the original jihadists. Christian missionaries are still active in many lands, but they are often hated because they challenge corrupt and brutal local authorities, not because they bring an alien religion. If Islam and Christendom competed non-violently, both would succumb to secularism in due time, or so I surmise. But neither the remnant of Christendom, nor the secular powers of West and Far East can share a small planet with people who believe they have a religious obligation to convert and rule everyone. Islam must reform, and very swiftly, before its jihadists trigger a cataclysm.

It's one thing to preempt a WMD attack by foreign terrorists. It's another thing to preempt a tumultuous demonstration by domestic dissidents. Is this distinction getting purposely blurred by the Bush Administration? Predictably enough the New York Times thinks it is. But there are constitutionally-tested laws against violent conspiracy, and anarchist groups have been seeking recruits to disrupt the Republican convention. It is perfectly legitimate for citizens to be preemptively apprehended, charged and convicted for a plot to commit violence, even if they never actually do the deed. However it would be wrong--and politically foolish--for the Justice Department simply to harrass planners of legal demonstrations. Times reporter Eric Lichtblau is either evasive or ignorant about what really happened in the instances of alleged harrassment he cites to support his vague and sweeping innuendoes.

David Warren has posted his most serious criticism yet of Bush Administration conduct in Iraq. Here is the concluding paragraph:

The American military is superb, but the political will to use it decisively is not there. For again, it is Clintonesque to use an army to strike public relations poses. Armies are designed for destroying things. Either there is a war to finish, or they should return to barracks, Stateside.

Actually there is a great deal more than a war to finish. While stalemates in Najaf or Fallujah dominate the headlines posted by adversarial Western media, the real work of winning a viable peace continues apace. Opinion Journal has published another of Chernkoff's invaluable 'good news from Iraq' series, countering the embedded editorials of bad news mongers who have even dispirited David Warren.

Though the US Administration has largely succeeded on the ground in Iraq, it has signally failed to convey its success to the American people. Republicans seem flummoxed by the ideological adversaries who dominate popular media. Public perceptions--and Democratic perceptions in particular--are shaped by carefully edited omissions. Yesterday I dined with eleven other likely voters. Nine were leftists. All are well-informed by ordinary standards, but none of the leftists knew about Kerry's Christmas in Cambodia or his revision of the tale. None knew that the overwhelming majority of Kerry's Swift Boat comrades have signed an affidavit denouncing him. Only one would even listen to such talk. The rest turned away or thought any criticism of Kerry was falsified by partisanship.

For what it's worth, the three non-Democrats did not mention politics; we only challenged the sort of sneery comments that pass for intellectual banter among the coastal elite and their academic fellow-travellers in the heartland. It's also worth mentioning that one of our dinner companions was an outright communist. I've known him for many years. These days he's custodian of the Communist Party archives in New York. Unlike David Horowitz, this is one red-diaper baby who has never outgrown his family hammer and sickle. Mark had visited Floyd Lake only once before, about twenty years ago. After clashing with Tim's late father, he vowed never to return.

I never thought I'd sympathize with old man Vince, a one-time Dos Passos reader who aged into a crusty social conservative. But he was right about Mark. Such ideologues whittle away the foundations of our imperfectly civilized life. They conceive themselves as servants of a greater good; but however well they rationalize the consequences of their beliefs, I can no longer overlook the harm they do.

President Bush brought some compassionate conservatism to the storm-ravaged coast of southwest Florida yesterday. Financial Times aptly remarks that after Andrew struck during the election year of 1992, "George H.W. Bush was criticised for moving slowly with aid. He was then faulted for over-compensating by pledging to rebuild Homestead air force base even though military officials questioned its value." Bush the Younger and his governor-brother must be feeling edgy indeed as cleanup and reconstruction begin.

Meanwhile Earl is gathering force as it moves through the Caribbean south of Hispaniola. Yesterday Earl actually weakened a bit, and the NHC was frustrated by denial of Venezuelan airspace for reconnaisance of the storm. Evidently the election-distracted local authorities were feeling cranky. This morning's satellite photos show lots of convection clustered east of Earl's circulation center. Slow strengthening may have resumed, but the system is fighting some unpredicted westerly sheer, apparent yesterday as faint cirrus plumes streamed over the central Caribbean.

Floridians are understandably jittery, and no doubt my friend Steffen is nervous too. He sent me a very spooked email after he saw pictures from the disaster zone. The damage to Havana has dissuaded him from going there either, since marina workers will undoubtedly be distracted by cleanup for some time, and unavailable to help him. La Boheme is probably making a windless passage under power today, heading from West End to Nassau. But Steffen has no need to worry. The polar trough over the eastern US will fill and lift northeast before it can influence Earl's course.

Where is Earl going? How strong will it be? Potentially quite strong: models indicate virtually no sheer all the way to Yucatan. However the models may be wrong. A TUTT (tropical upper tropospheric trough) presently near the Cayman Islands is supposed to weaken and retreat before Earl's anticyclone--the reverse high-altitude circulation that ventilates a hurricane. But that opposing system looks pretty vigorous this morning, and I think Earl will have trouble bucking it out of the way. The TUTT has spawned a big thunderstorm complex near Honduras--another sign of its strength.

After landfall on the Yucatan peninsula, Earl is projected to cross the Gulf of Mexico. Another polar trough will be digging southward into the central US late this week. Models disagree on its effect. Earl could turn north toward Texas or even Louisiana, or continue westward toward a second landfall in Mexico. In any case, Florida, the Bahamas, and the East Coast have nothing to fear.

Meanwhile Hurricane Danielle is spinning over the eastern Atlantic and already starting to turn poleward. It will fade harmlessly over cooling water. No other disturbances seem inclined to develop at this time. The GFS model does show a tropical storm or hurricane south of Bermuda in eight or nine days, held to a westward course by blocking further north. Unlike storms originating at lower latitude, such systems rarely reach the US mainland with any force.

Update: In its 11AM advisory, NHC demoted Earl to a tropical wave after aircraft failed to find a closed circulation. Sheer is killing this system. It may regenerate eventually, in the NW Caribbean or the Gulf, but I doubt it will ever amount to much now.

The Olympics are underway, with their usual quota of spectacle and scandal. Months ago Fresh Bilge reviewed difficulties with erection of the Calatrava stadium, but the Greek contractors were able to finish the job, and the place hasn't fallen down yet. Apparently the biggest problem is lack of local support: this was a project of the national elite, but the populace of a less-than-prosperous country has more pressing concerns than gawking at obscure sporting events. Stadiums are virtually empty for many competitions. Gay circuit parties get better turnouts. One blogger has posted an extremely amusing set of photos comparing a really big party with the games. I'll wager the party organizers turned a profit; the Olympics are a calamity for the host country, as costly as an earthquake or major volcanic eruption.

Before I head lakeward again, let me leave you a link on the ongoing vote to affirm or oust elected dictator Chavez in Venezuela. This is a crucial time for that unfortunate country, as oily oligarchs and a populist thug vie for support from a conflicted polity. In this time of tight oil markets, unrest in Venezeula could threaten the world economy. If Chavez loses, his militia may turn to sabotage.

Earlier today I mentioned ex-senator Robert Torricelli, but just now, linking from Drudge to the New York Post, I was astonished to find Torricelli's name connected with the McGreevey scandal.

Cipel added a surprise demand: that the governor allow Manhattan-based Touro College to go ahead with plans to build a medical school in New Jersey.

"This immediately raised eyebrows," one of the sources said, because it suggested a link between Cipel and ex-New Jersey Sen. Robert Torricelli, who is Touro's lead adviser on the project.

The source said McGreevey aides asked themselves: "What does Cipel have to do with Torricelli?"

The talks broke off minutes before McGreevey announced he was resigning.

No telling what you'll see scuttling for cover when a politician's closet door blows off. Newsweek has also spotted some of the vermin.

Democrats used to care about honesty--when Richard Nixon was president. But during the Nineties the party decided that perjury was no big deal. Cultural relativism had rotted out its core. If truth was arbitrary and malleable, there could be no such thing as a Democrat lie, so long as the party possessed the power to shape public debate. That power resided in compliant media controlled by ideological allies. Talk radio was a containable nusiance. Fox News had not yet become a threat. Though the president had committed a felony, his impeachers failed to get a conviction.

I don't think people understood fully the implications of that event. It literally signalled 'anything goes.' The profession of politics has always attacted liars. Now the very concept of a lie has been deconstructed. 'Free at last!' the party of Sharpton sang to itself, as its partisans accused the Bush Administration of lies innumerable, when the straight-talking president told the truth. But the ascendency of lies guarantees self-delusion as well. When the anti-war warrior, John Kerry, reported for duty, the Move-On crowd whooped with delight at the fast one they were pulling on the electorate. Perhaps they didn't realize that Kerry and his band of bought brothers had lied to them as well. Liars are easy marks for one another.

Now the Democrat-controlled media conglomerates are desperate to stifle the emergence of the unmalleable, inescapable truth about John Kerry, liar nonpareil, whose entire career has been constructed on falsifications of the long-ago combat record that was supposed to immunize him from criticism. A source quoted by John Weidner reports that Unfit for Command does not appear on the Amazon best-seller list, even though its advance sales merit #1 ranking. But all sorts of chinks are appearing in the media armor. The blogs are buzzing, and articles are starting to appear in the mainstream press. The Kerry campaign has been forced into a defensive posture from which it may never emerge.

A week ago today I wrote a short post called Torricelli Trick, in which I suggested that Kerry might not be the actual candidate for whom Democratic electors would be voting, when the time comes. (Note: electors, not voters.) It's time for legal-minded bloggers like Glen Reynolds and Volokh to start researching precedents in law and history. Mark my words: if Kerry's candidacy becomes untenable, the party of lies will force Kerry to tell one more whopper. On the eve of the election, the leadership will get some compliant doctor to certify a resurgence of Kerry's cancer, or the onset of some other disability; and they'll tell their electors to vote for Edwards, or even Hillary Clinton.

Update: Amazon has now listed Unfit for Command. Pressure from bloggers? Nah! Actually today was the official release day, though it might be interesting to check whether Amazon has listed other books based on advance orders.

I once wrote a poem about the resolutely positive outlook of Richard Wilbur. I called it The Optimist, and it's the title poem for the second section of my on-line collection. John Weidner displays the same admirable sort of willed optimism--aware of all the world's darkness, but determined to see the light. During the political campaign John is truly in his element. Lately his finds and his commentary have been outstanding. With a family gathering at Floyd Lake, I'll be blogging less than usual this weekend. Jog over to John's place, if you have the time.

Cleanup has begun in southwestern Florida, and the body count is rising. A storm of such intensity will inevitably take lives when it hits a populated area. Even in a hurricane-prone region, few people have any notion what forces rage in the eyewall of a category four storm--mortally dangerous for anyone outdoors, anyone near the water, anyone in a vehicle or fragile structure like a mobile home. A Fort Meyers man stepped outside his house to smoke a cigarette, and got crushed by a falling banyan tree.

If Charley had made landfall in Tampa, the toll of death and damage would have mounted high indeed. Fortunately it struck a less populated area to the south, just as Andrew swept the southern suburbs of Miami and spared the city. Soon or later one of the large Florida metropoli will take a direct hit, and the country will learn the true price of urbanizing such places. But water and warmth draw me as much as anyone. I may yet witness a real hurricane first-hand. As a boy I saw several dying tropical storms hit New York City, but I haven't summered in a coastal location since 1973. I still hope to live year-round in Florida or the Caribbean before too much longer.

Charley raced north-northeast offshore of Georgia overnight, making a third and final landfall near Charleston, South Carolina after daybreak today. Ninety mph gusts are scouring the coastline as I write. Such conditions have become almost routine along the Carolinas--once or twice a year of late. Hurricanes rarely sustain category four or five strength so far north. Really violent storms are more likely in Florida or along the Gulf Coast.

Already two more tropical storms are developing. Danielle is far, far to the east, near Africa's Cape Verde Islands. It should spin harmlessly up the center of the Atlantic Ocean. But tropical depression #5 has begun right where Charley did, and it will cross into the Caribbean tomorrow as a tropical storm. Conditions are favorable for this system to reach hurricane strength. It is expected to pass near Jamaica in five days. After that it may hit Mexico or enter the Gulf and turn toward the US. Waters are a bit warmer than normal in the Gulf. It's quite possible that one of the Gulf States will be evacuating coastal communities at the approach of another major hurricane in eight or nine days.

For some time Jamie Glazov has hosted symposia for FrontPage Magazine. Yesterday his guests were two 'moderate' scholars of Islam and a former Islamist turned Christian. An extraordinary confrontation resulted, as the three learned combatants launched scriptural citations at each other like invisible missiles. It's worth braving the shrapnel, rare reader. You will learn much about the renewed conflict between Islam and the world. You may also glimpse hints of redemption for the participants. Their battle is bitter and the stakes are high, yet their differences seem in the end less significant than the similarities. They are all pridefully obsessed with absurdities that cannot stand sustained rational examination, and they are all rational men.

A dramatic afternoon for weather-watchers, as Charley's eye will be making landfall around 4PM EDT just west of Fort Meyers. The core structure of the hurricane has tightened during its final approach to the coast. While there are some irregular bands of thunderstorms pinwheeling around the periphery, the core consists of two concentric rings, the outer about thirty miles in diameter, the inner around fifteen miles. At 1 PM EDT an aircraft measurement suggested wind speeds over 140mph in the inner eyewall, elevating Charlie to category four. Massive devastation is certain in the Fort Meyers area. The remnant of the eyewall will pass near Orlando early tonight. Already tornadic thunderstorms are ripping across central Florida. I expect a lot of damage inland from this system.

Update: Charley has passed over Orlando, with winds gusting to 92 mph at the airport as of 9PM EDT. The storm will emerge onto the Atlantic near Daytona Beach before midnight and head for the Carolina coast. So far the track is very close to that of Hurricane Donna in 1960. Strong convection has already erupted just off the north Florida and Georgia coast. Charley will probably remain a hurricane for awhile yet.

Our Father goes the prayer, Who art in Heaven.

Havana is less than heavenly on the best of days, and especially hellish today, the morning after a hurricane ripped through the place. Self-styled father of his country, Fidel Castro spent the midnight hour preening on television. Power was out in the capitol, but the caudillo grandstands even when nobody is watching. Here's one revealing passage from a news report.

Cuban President Fidel Castro, who turned 78 on Friday, showed up after midnight at Cuba's weather center and discussed Charley's advance for an hour on television. He was pleased the full force of the storm did not hit Havana directly.

"This was like a birthday present from nature, a special present, because a hurricane can cause most damage in a capital city, to housing, industry and electricity lines," said Castro, dressed in his trademark green uniform.

The eyewall passed right over the city, so in fact Charley did hit Havana directly, though the storm was no doubt slightly weakened as it spent two hours crossing the island to get there. How ludicrously, even pathologically Castro personalizes the event as a 'birthday present.' I wonder if he choked 'gollum, gollum' after uttering the phrase.

Only the most grotesque paternalist, in the midst of a national disaster, could refer to the great good fortune that damage in the capitol might have been worse. That precious center is, of course, the prize, the mansion of the father. However ramshackle it appears, however resentful the servants, it is his, and nothing else matters.

The great blessing of consensual government--along with constitutional limitation on terms of office--is the way it prevents such deformations of character from inflicting themselves on whole countries. They're bad enough when they happen in households.

Pater is a word rich in political and cultural implications, forming as it does the root of 'paternal' and 'patriot,' which by imputation means 'preserver of the fatherland.' No wonder the Patriot Act gets a lot of gay people upset. It's the name. Though hardly anyone actually knows the root, it's still down there.

This has been a dispiriting week for gay people. Following the recent Missouri vote, which proves the depth and fervor of opposition to gay marriage, we have witnessed the California mass-nullification, and now the McGreevey outing, complete with public humiliation, an old-fashioned extortion scandal, and possible international repercussions. Once again gays are seen to be unstable and unreliable. Few straight people will recognize McGreevey as a conflicted victim of a socially conservative upbringing. Most will find their lifelong prejudice sustained.

That prejudice is ubiquitous, and it is only beginning to erode. Listen to the children outside your window. The most terrible slur one twelve-year-old boy can hurl at another is 'faggot!' That hasn't changed since I was a boy, and I doubt it will change much in another forty years, no matter what political correction the schools attempt to instill. The other Sullivan risks more than he seems to realize, forcing the marriage issue. Gays have barely won a measure of physical safety. There's a long, long way to go.

Northbound Hurricane Charley has bypassed Key West. This radar shot was taken at 8:30AM EDT.

In an article reprinted at FrontPage Magazine, Arnaud de Borchgrave frets about the ubiquity of anti-Americanism in the Islamic world, and the danger posed by hostile Muslims within the United States. I think he is overly alarmed. The mere presence of Islamist ideology is not the true danger. Consider this analogy: substitute the human body for the body politic. At all times your body harbors innumerable micro-organisms that could cause illness or death, yet a person can stay healthy year after year.

Right now America is running a slight fever. There is an infection somewhere. As the body's defenses mobilize, the pathogen may be isolated and neutralized or eliminated. But immune reactions can also be harmful: high fever can damage the brain and other organs. The immune system can be fooled or overwhelmed. Then other pathogens, normally dormant, may also attack. A person battling a chronic virus may develop a fungal illness, just as the body politic is afflicted by the likes of Michael Moore.

Health is an embattled equilibrium that cannot last indefinitely, but I do not think America is moribund quite yet, nor does it appear directly vulnerable to the Islamist plague. The opportunistic infections are a more serious problem, especially if they attack vital systems. At present, the left side of the national brain appears to be sclerotic and inflamed. A cold shower of electoral failure may suffice to reduce the fever.

At 11PM EDT the eye of hurricane Charley is about to make landfall on the south coast of Cuba. The hurricane appears to be heading almost due north now, and its presentation on the infrared satellite has grown more impressive in the last few hours. Since the storm yielded to upper winds and changed direction earlier today, its core has been free to organize. Only the hills of Cuba will prevent its attainment of category three tonight. As soon as the eye emerges onto the Florida Strait, intensification will surely resume.

The worst-case scenario appears to be playing out. This morning I wasn't sure whether Charley would overcome the resistance in its environment; but it is a far larger system than Bonnie was, and it will not begin to encounter the sheer of the polar trough until it reaches the latitude of Tampa. Charley may be well inland by then, sparing Tampa Bay the great surge, which now appears to be aiming at southwest Florida.

Already violent thunderstorms have exploded over the deep waters of the strait and hurtled into the lower Keys from Marathon to Key West. Tornadic cells will rage through that area for the rest of the night. By dawn the core of the hurricane will be taking a big gulp of Gulf Stream energy and bearing down on the low, vulnerable islands. I've seen one severe storm in Key West, with near hurricane conditions for many hours. I shall never forget it; and this rampage will be exponentially greater.

Update: As of 6AM EDT the eye was 85 miles WSW of Key West, still headed slightly west of due north. As a result of this trajectory, only the Dry Tortugas are experiencing the storm's full force, and I doubt anyone is out there, save perhaps a handful of National Park personnel in the old fort, which has weathered worse storms than this. The eye passed near Havana, Cuba last night. No doubt the damage there was severe, but Americans will be paying more attention to the landfall expected later today, somewhere near Tampa.

Over the last few days a remarkable exchange of rhetoric has occurred between the Kerry and Bush campaigns, with vice-president Cheney speaking for the Administration.

Kerry: I believe I can fight a more effective, more thoughtful, more strategic, more proactive, more sensitive war on terror that reaches out to other nations and brings them to our side.

Cheney: America has been in too many wars for any of our wishes, but not a one of them was won by being sensitive. Those that threaten us and kill innocents around the world do not need to be treated more sensitively, they need to be destroyed.

Kerry: It's sad that they can only be negative. They have nothing to say about the future vision of America. I think Americans want a positive vision for the future.

Cheney: He has even said that by using our strength, we are creating terrorists and placing ourselves in greater danger. But that is a fundamental misunderstanding of the way the world we are living in works. Terrorist attacks are not caused by use of strength; they are invited by the perception of weakness. President Lincoln and General Grant did not wage sensitive warfare, nor did President Roosevelt, nor Generals Eisenhower and MacArthur.

Kerry spokesman: This vice president's lack of sensitivity is precisely what led this administration to ignore the advice of the professional military and rush to war. We can't afford another four years of their failed insensitive foreign policy.

What a pathetic debate. Kerry's "positive vision" is actually a coded term for surrender, though even he may not realize it, while Cheney's injunction to "destroy" is, well, simplistic--and he knows it. Each side has a piece of the truth. It is possible for a great power to provoke more emnity than it can handle. But Rome fell from loss of will and confidence, not surplus of aggression. The very people who are quickest to slander "insensitive" America as a new Roman Empire are the ones who would sink our nation into dhimmitude.

This morning via Technorati, I learned that my recent post Fragged had been linked by The Jobless Lawyer, who somehow finds time to maintain a clever, politically-attuned website. There in turn I discovered this excellent analysis of Bush as MBA graduate, published in The American Thinker and written by a professor who knows the program very well.

The comparatively small amount of attention paid by the political press to the President’s Harvard MBA partially reflects a generalized ignorance of, and hostility toward, the degree itself. More importantly, acknowledging that he learned any valuable intellectual perspectives would contradict the storyline that young W was a party animal, who coasted through his elite education, scarcely cracking a book. In other words, as the left never tires of claiming, he is too “stupid” to have picked up any tricks across the Charles River from Harvard Square.

This is patently incorrect. Having attended Harvard Business School at the same time as the President, graduating from the two-year program a year after he did, and then serving on its faculty after a year’s interval spent writing a PhD thesis, I am intimately familiar with the rigors of the program at the time, and the miniscule degree of slack cut for even the most well-connected students, when their performance did not make the grade.

The article dates back to February, but it's still revelant--the true measure of a topical essay's worth. American Thinker looks like an impressive publication. I had never encountered it before. I shall have to check more articles, and maybe add the 'zine to my mainstream news links.

From the satellite photo, Charlie appears to be swerving a bit more sharply right than the models had suggested, in response to the deepening polar trough that already grabbed Bonnie and raced it inland. An eye is now clearly visible for the first time. The National Hurricane Center ran an hour late with its 11AM discussion. Clearly forecasters are agonizing over adjustments to the warning status for south Florida, since the hurricane may hit heavily populated areas sooner if it is indeed beginning its turn early. Fort Meyers may now be more at risk than Tampa, and the Gold Coast is likely to experience tropical storm conditions. I hope Dreamweaver is secure. It's time to call the broker. My only concern is the stern, too close to a dockpost.

Apparently Michael Moore interviewed Porter Goss long before President Bush nominated the Florida congressman as CIA director. Drudge has linked an article alleging that Goss told the film-maker: "It is true I was a case officer, clandestine services officer, and yes, I do understand the core mission of the business. But I couldn't get a job with the CIA today. I am not qualified."

If this is true, it bespeaks not humility but vanity and naivete on the congressman's part. Why would he have said such a thing--and to Michael Moore of all people? Presumably because the camera was running. Bush might have done better to appoint Wretchard or Ralph Peters. He may still have an opportunity, if the confirmation process stalls. But the Democrats would probably prefer to see Hans Blix get the post.

Caught up fully in the polar jetstream, Bonnie has accelerated overnight and is sweeping ashore on the Florida Panhandle this morning. Sheer clobbered the storm early today and prevented any strengthening. Already Bonnie looks more like a frontal wave than a tropical system, with maximum winds displaced into an arc of thunderstorms east of its center.

At daybreak Charlie was passing directly over the Cayman Islands. It's only a category one storm, and its eye is barely discernable on visible satellite photos, now that full daylight has arrived. I doubt those much-hurricaned slips of land will suffer much harm. Charlie is encountering some sheer from an upper trough generated in part by Bonnie's outflow. Tropical cyclones often interact destructively with one another, even at considerable distance. This adverse flow should curtail further intensification of the large but somewhat disorganized hurricane as it approaches western Cuba today.

Bonnie will soon be defunct, and Charlie will shake off the effects tomorrow as it heads for western Florida. If Charlie intensifies over the Gulf, an extreme storm surge could occur somewhere along the coast from Tampa north. However this is not a likely scenario. Drudge is being melodramatic as always. Like Bonnie, the larger storm will have only a brief opportunity to swirl freely before the jet stream snatches it. Charley may be no more than a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane when it goes ashore.

Meanwhile, on the east coast of Florida, my friend Steffen has postponed his Gulf Stream crossing to Saturday, when the danger of squally weather will be past. He should have lively breeze abeam for his crossing to Freeport, but weak headwinds will probably vex his southeastward turn for Nassau. He is compelled to go to the Bahamas' capitol, as there is no American consulate at West End, and he needs to renew his visa.

Even in the darkest years of the Soviet Union, the robust tradition of Russian verse survived. Russian Dilettante provides a translation of a moving popular song, far more subtle and emotionally complex than songs usually are in the West. When I read the lyric, I was reminded of an article on Russian folk music that I had recently read at 2Blowhards and linked in a previous post. Then I noticed that the Tatyana commenting on Russian Dilettante's site was actually the same person interviewed by Michael Blowhard. It's a small world, the internet.

The two tropical cyclones have been developing and moving as I expected. Though still small in size, Bonnie has strengthened today as it traversed the col between the earlier northeast sheer and the soon-to-begin southwest sheer. With 12 hours for nocturnal intensification, Bonnie should be a hurricane tomorrow morning, and it will go ashore over the Florida Panhandle by day's end.

Charley is a hurricane as of 5PM EDT, with winds nearing 80mph and further intensification expected tonight. Charley's eye has spun past the south coast of Jamaica this afternoon, and it will cross western Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico later tomorrow. Waters are very warm there. As Charley turns north it may become quite severe. The western Florida coast from Tampa northward should take the brunt of the hurricane on Friday. If it reaches category three, Charley may prove extra destructive, as the slow-shelving coastline enhances surge in that area.

Two editorials juxtapose in this morning's Opinion Journal to demonstrate how the transnational progressive movement, embodied in the UN, utterly tainted itself with Saddam Hussein's Oil-for-Food scam, and is now desperately trying to contain the largest financial and political scandal in history. I do not think the cover-up is centrally orchestrated; it results from many individuals acting in concert to protect themselves from consequences and keep their ill-gotten gains. It's not easy to conceal 10,000 boxes of damning documents. But we all know that the favorite ruse of the guilty is to attack the motives and reputations of accusers, while delaying adjudication of their own misdeeds until a jaded public yawns at the televison and changes channels.

The first article describes the latest phase of the ongoing assault on the Chalabi family. The secular-minded Shiite Chalabi clan has been the great enemy of Saddam's Takrit-based Sunni Baathists. The brothers Chalabi lobbied untiringly for Saddam's overthrow by Washington and London. They got their wish, and their many enemies are bent on revenge. One could ask some very interesting questions of Paul Bremer, who last spring appointed to a high judicial post a non-jurist with a Baathist background, violating his own previous guidelines. That Iraqi 'judge' issued the recent, absurd indictments against the Chalabi brothers.

The ongoing battle between these factions has regrettably strengthened the religious fanatics who wish for Islamic rather than secular government in Iraq, and everywhere else. Bremer did US policy a grave disservice when he decided to compromise with Baathists rather than take and clean up Fallujah. I doubt he will ever be held to account; indeed he will probably be rewarded with high office in a second Bush term. America needed to finish the Baathists and build a secular alternative. Instead we have empowered the lunatics, since we evince no disposition to finish off al-Sadr either. This unwillingness to choose leaves too many options for hostile outside powers like Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UN.

The second article is another Claudia Rosett column on the slow, secretive, and redundant investigations of the defunct Oil-for-Food program, the attempts to blunt the scandal by linking it to the Chalabis, and the inertia of vested interests. I remember dragging my eighty-pound black labrador into the Animal Health Clinic. When she went rigid, Maud seemed to outweigh an elephant.

Oil-for-Food was a deal between Saddam and the U.N., in which, to my knowledge, Mr. Chalabi, an avowed long-time foe of Saddam, was not invited by either party to ride the gravy train. Rather, Mr. Chalabi was one of the early messengers, bringing specific tidings that the program was rotten. All the signs so far suggest that whatever else he may be accused of, he was right about this. Since Mr. Chalabi kicked off an investigation this past spring (which was promptly blocked by the U.S. administration), U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan, Paul Volcker, the U.S. Justice Department, and five congressional teams have followed suit.

Nor has Mr. Chalabi been a solo voice in noting that high officials of various stripes, in various counties, might be implicated in Oil-for-Food. On March 30 of this year, CIA chief weapons inspector for Iraq, Charles Duelfer, testified to the Senate Armed Services Committee that of the billions skimmed from Oil-for-Food, Saddam's regime "channeled much of the illicitly gathered funds to rebuild Iraq's military capabilities," importing "banned weapons and technology and dual-use goods through Oil-for-Food contracts."

Perhaps most immediately intriguing, even with Saddam gone from the scene, Mr. Duelfer in the same testimony, said: "Companies in several countries were involved in these efforts. Direct roles by government officials are also clearly established."

Direct roles? Which countries? What government officials?

At least some of the evidence, one might suppose, is socked away among the umpteen zillion documents to which the public has no access--save when here or there, someone chooses to leak a sheaf or two. Until the various investigations start to report in--and they seem to be taking their time about it--we won't even necessarily know just which aspects they are examining, and which they might choose to leave out.

A Kerry presidency is clearly the best hope for the numerous guilty parties; a Bush mandate their greatest fear. Kerry would never wish to discommode France, Germany, or Kofi Annan. For reform at the UN and exposure of dirty-handed 'allies,' it is not just necessary for Bush to win; he must win decisively. I shall simply have to hold my nose if he appoints Paul Bremer as Secretary of State.