Open thread

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Is Bill undermining Hillary?

Ben Smith quotes a letter from a female reader:

Around the office today, a number of women who were definitely in the Hillary camp are starting to feel a little sick to their stomach about the role Bill Clinton's is playing. One remarked that she thought she would be voting for the first women president, not a trojan horse for Bill Clinton's overactive ambition. Another friend I thought last week would definitely vote for Hillary labeled them the "Dynastic Duo" this morning and said she may switch to Obama. And finally, my best friend, who already sent in her absentee ballot says, she's got serious "buyer's remorse" saying she thought she had voted for the first women president, but now she's not so sure she's advanced or hurt women everywhere by voting for Hillary.

I think the media is missing the point like they did in NH. Bill's role as of late is undermining the very strength derived from her seeming historic candidacy.

I like Bill. I don't like him when he's on the attack, however, and haven't liked him at all the past few weeks. But I'm reacting to him as a guy. I have never understood how women perceive either Bill, Hillary, or the interaction between the two. So, I'd be curious what our female readers have to say about this. Read the rest of this post...

Missouri's GOP Governor not running for re-election

This is an interesting -- and somewhat shocking -- development. The Governor of Missouri, Matt Blunt, isn't running for re-election. Matt is the son of GOP Whip Roy Blunt. Nasty right wing family. Missouri is one of the ultimate swing states in a presidential year. Lots of speculation about why he's not running at one of my favorite state blogs, Fired Up Missouri. Let's just say, they're fired up. Read the rest of this post...

How bad is our economic situation?

That's today's poll topic. You can find our straw poll in the right-hand column, below the Popular Posts box. You need to vote in order to see the results. Read the rest of this post...

Paulson is channeling Dick Cheney

Did he mean to calm the market or add even more panic?

"The U.S. economy is resilient and diverse," he said. "It's been remarkably robust and it will be again."

Just like Cheney back in October who had lots of big talk about the economy that he helped trash. I'm not convinced that mirroring the man who has been wrong about, well, everything, is the proper path during such sensitive times. Now that Apple is trimming its outlook, we need to do better than channeling Cheney. So what's this now...two recessions under Bush? Considering that our last recession was in the early '90s, Bush is really doing a heckuva job, in a Bush-heckuva-job kind of way. What a record the GOP owns. Read the rest of this post...

The Fed meets again next week - expect another cut

The guy is coming unglued and is going to take us all down because he's simply not up to the task. If the panic today failed to jolt people, that's OK because next Tuesday the Fed starts it's official meeting where they are expected to lower interest rates another 1/2 point down to 3%. This radical action is not going to solve the core problems with the economy. America is not going to use any less oil and while the costs are down, hovering around $90 or more is still not cheap. Elsewhere in the world those prices won't really change because they are buying in dollars, which is the weakling of the major world currencies at the moment. This means continued high gas prices that will translate into high prices for food and energy.

The last thing the average American needs today is more pressure from inflation yet that's what Bernanke is promoting with these cuts. Read the rest of this post...

Anniversary of Roe (or, AJ looks for a cookie*)

Thirty-five years ago today, the Supreme Court declared that most laws against abortion were unconstitutional. Roe v Wade obviously had profound effects on politics at a variety of levels, but more importantly, it had an effect on people -- millions of people who, before their rights were recognized, could or would have been forced by the government to give up control over a choice that is among the most important, personal, and private in all of life. It is one of the most important rights a person has (and should have) in this country, and it is in constant danger of being abrogated.

I'd say more, but this is one topic that has certainly been covered by individuals far more insightful and eloquent than I. The best explanation of pro-choice perspective I've ever read is here, so take a moment away from the primaries, the stock market, and the daily grind to remind yourself why today -- why every day of this fight -- matters. For real people. Every day.

For some additional excellent pieces, check out AlterNet's excellent Reproductive Justice and Gender section, which is especially good -- and, again, important -- today.

*Second half of the title is a joke, but I realize it's a little random, so see here, e.g. Read the rest of this post...

'Bernanke is setting the stage for an even bigger recession down the road'

From CNNMoney/Fortune:

But Bernanke is setting the stage for an even bigger recession down the road. Just as the ultra-low rates of the early 2000s created many of the problems we're experiencing today, pumping money into the system would probably stoke inflation, forcing the Fed to hike rates sharply in the near future. "It's better to take a small recession and kill inflation immediately instead of facing high inflation and a really big recession later," says Carnegie Mellon economist Allan Meltzer.

Meltzer, who is finishing the second volume of his history of the Federal Reserve, warns that Bernanke is risking a disastrous replay of the 1970s, when high oil prices fueled double-digit inflation. Every time the Fed started to tighten and unemployment jumped, chairmen G. William Miller and Arthur Burns lost their nerve. They lowered rates to boost job growth, and inflation inevitably revived, causing a vicious price spiral. The Fed let the disease rage for so long that it took draconian action by chairman Paul Volcker in the early 1980s to finally defeat inflation. The price was a deep recession, with unemployment hitting 11% in 1982. "The mentality is the same as in the 1970s," says Meltzer. "'As soon as we get rid of the risk of recession, we'll do something about inflation.' But that comes too late."

Indeed, while the economy is sending mixed messages about growth, the signs of increasing inflation are flashing bright red. For 2007 the consumer price index rose 4.1%, the biggest annual increase in 17 years. Gold, historically a reliable harbinger of inflation, set an all-time high of more than $900 an ounce. The dollar is languishing at a record low against the euro and a weighted basket of international currencies. "Flooding the market with liquidity is a disaster for the purchasing power of the dollar," says David Gitlitz, chief economist for Trend Macrolytics.

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'This is an expression of panic - really nothing less than panic about prospects for the U.S. economy.'

Well, the Fed certainly convinced me that we're screwed. From the Washington Post:

It is the largest single rate cut since 1984, beyond even the initial half-point reduction that the Fed made following the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.... The global sell-off has involved some of the worst market declines since Sept. 11, 2001, and has erased more than $5 trillion in value from stock markets this year....

Today's declines in Asia were even more severe than those yesterday, and several markets hit multiyear lows. Indian shares plunged so quickly -- nearly 11 percent -- that its stock markets halted trading soon after opening. In South Korea, volatile futures prices prompted the main Kospi market to briefly suspend program selling orders at midday. The Australian market suffered its worst one-day fall ever, while Japan's Nikkei fell 5.65 percent to its lowest point since 2005. It is down nearly 18 percent this year.

In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index was down 8.65 percent today, after dropping 5.49 percent yesterday. It's off 19 percent this year and is 30 percent lower than a peak in late October.

"This is an expression of panic -- really nothing less than panic about prospects for the U.S. economy," said Stephen Green, senior economist with Standard Chartered Bank.

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Fed drops interest rate 3/4 point; US stock market diving

This is bad. The stock market is down 335 points (it was down by as much as 464) and the fed just cut interest rates by 3/4 of a point (they were expected to consider cutting by half a point later this month). CNN just interviewed someone at the NYSE saying that the market wants the government to lead, not follow, and cutting rates AFTER the world markets plummet is following. And is anyone surprised? That's what a Republican administration does. It doesn't do anything until its friends in big business are getting hurt. Now we're all about to get hurt. Read the rest of this post...

Rudy, master of thug politics, is losing his own home state

Today's New York Times has a front page article about the ruthless reign of Rudy. He was a real, vindictive bastard as mayor of New York. Worth a read to see how Rudy and his team harassed and victimized any one who criticized the Mayor.

Not much love for Rudy these days in his home state. His string of sixth place finishes has had an impact. Rudy is losing NY now:

"If these numbers are truly reflective of the electorate, then Rudy's dead," said Doug Muzzio, professor of public affairs at Baruch College in Manhattan. He blamed the slippage on the fact that "Rudy has been virtually invisible" nationally while focusing all his attention on winning Florida.

The WNBC/Marist Poll in New York shows McCain beating Giuliani 32 to 22 percent, followed by Mitt Romney at 14 percent and Mike Huckabee at 11 percent, with Fred Thompson trailing at 4 percent. Fifteen percent of 401 Republicans polled last week were undecided. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percent.

A second poll, by Siena College Research Institute, found the former New York mayor trailing the Arizona senator by 12 points for the New York primary Feb. 5. Siena put Giuliani second, with 24 percent of support among Republicans, behind McCain's 36 percent. Romney had 10 percent, Huckabee 7 percent, and Thompson 6 percent. That poll has a margin of error of 7.4 percent.

At least he's beating Ron Paul in NY. That's a change. Read the rest of this post...

In surprise and unexpected move, Fed just cut key rate by 3/4 of a point

This just out:

The Federal Reserve, confronted with a global stock sell-off fanned by increased fears of a recession, cut a key interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point on Tuesday.

UPDATE at 9:36: Within minutes of the opening bell on Wall Street, the stock market is down 400 points.
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Tuesday Morning Open Thread

Good morning.

Should be a wild day on Wall Street. The world markets think the U.S. is heading towards recession -- and were quite unimpressed by Bush's stimulus package.

That debate was pretty intense last night. Interesting that DailyKos and AMERICAblog readers thought Obama won. The media pundits are in a frenzy -- dissecting every word. On to South Carolina this Saturday.

Start threading. Read the rest of this post...

Wall Street pointing to another decline

Asian and Australian markets fell hard for the second straight day including a 5.6% drop in Tokyo, 7% in Australia, China 7.2% and Hong Kong a brutal 8.7%. The Hong Kong market has lost over 21% in 2008. European markets collapsed on Monday though at midday, are slightly down. Wall Street is pointing in the direction of a painful day with futures down 4%.

In light of this economic mess that the GOP delivered, it is well worth stepping back and reviewing just how much benefit the Reagan and Bush terms in office provided for regular Americans. The rich all did quite well, but beyond that, their records on providing economic benefits to hard working Americans is terrible. Democrats ought to be pounding away at the facts that show how badly Reagan and Bush hurt the middle class. Let the GOP talk about how wonderful those years were and see how far it gets them. We used to be a country that believed in succeeding as a nation, but Reagan and Bush did their best to destroy those ideas. Of course we need individuals to step up, but to leave everyone else behind is not what we are about as a country. Any Democrat who thinks praising Reagan makes sense ought to look at the numbers and explain themselves. Read the rest of this post...

Mobile phones damage your sleep

Studies on the negative neurological impact of mobile phones may be confusing, but there's not much left to discuss with this study. If you want to sleep, leave them alone at night.

Radiation from mobile phones delays and reduces sleep, and causes headaches and confusion, according to a new study.

The research, sponsored by the mobile phone companies themselves, shows that using the handsets before bed causes people to take longer to reach the deeper stages of sleep and to spend less time in them, interfering with the body's ability to repair damage suffered during the day.

The findings are especially alarming for children and teenagers, most of whom – surveys suggest – use their phones late at night and who especially need sleep. Their failure to get enough can lead to mood and personality changes, ADHD-like symptoms, depression, lack of concentration and poor academic performance.

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World markets plunge

Chris will be writing more about this, I suspect, when he wakes up in Paris in a few hours. From the NYT:

Fears that the United States may be in a recession reverberated around the world on Monday, sending stock markets from Mumbai to Frankfurt into a tailspin and puncturing the hopes of many investors that Europe and Asia would be able to sidestep an American downturn....

As exchanges opened on Tuesday in Asia, the decline only seemed to accelerate. Markets in Tokyo, Hong Kong, Sydney and Seoul, South Korea, all fell farther in the opening hours of trading than they had all day on Monday. The Hong Kong market plunged another 7.22 percent by late morning after tumbling 5.49 percent on Monday. In Tokyo, the Nikkei hit a low not seen since September 2005.

Monday’s sell-off was evenly distributed from east to west. The DAX index of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange plummeted 7.2 percent, its steepest one-day decline since Sept. 11, 2001. The 7.4 percent drop in the Sensex index in Mumbai was the second-worst single-day tumble in its history.

Stocks followed suit when markets opened in the Western Hemisphere. Canadian stocks were down nearly 5 percent, and a key market index in Brazil was off 6.6 percent.

Atrios also has a ton of posts this evening about the markets plunging around the world. Check them out. Read the rest of this post...