ALCS 7: Rays 3, Red Sox 1

Red Sox - 100 000 000 - 1  3  0
Rays    - 000 110 10x - 3  6  1

Tampa Bay Rays - 2008 AL Champions.



Lester was good (7-6-3-0-8, 107), but Garza -- named the MVP of the series -- was better (7-2-1-3-9, 118).

Dustin Pedroia lined a home run to left in the first -- 6th pitch of the game -- and David Ortiz followed with a walk. Garza retired the next two Sox and outside of hitting FY in the third and walking him in the sixth, no other Sock reached base until there was one out in the seventh.

By that time, the Rays led 3-1. Lester did set down the first nine Rays batters, but a two-out double from Evan Longoria in the fourth tied the game and three straight hits to open the fifth -- Willy Aybar double, Dioner Navarro single, Rocco Baldelli single -- gave Tampa Bay a 2-1 lead. Aybar donged to start the seventh to give the Rays a two-run lead.

Boston tried to rally. After Kevin Youkilis popped to shortstop to start the seventh, JD Drew walked on four pitches and Jason Bay singled. After a mound visit from Joe Maddon, Garza -- working slowly -- got Mark Kotsay to fly to right and then struck out Jason Varitek on a changeup in the dirt.

In the eighth, Alex Cora batted -- Tito was not very Assassiny tonight -- and grounded to shortstop. Jason Bartlett did not charge the ball and it clanked off his glove for an error. Maddon went to the bullpen -- repeatedly. He used four relievers in the inning. Dan Wheeler allowed a single to right from Coco Crisp but got FY on a routine fly to left. JP Howell came in and got Ortiz to ground to second (on seven pitches) and Coco was forced. Chad Bradford fell behind Yook 3-0, battled back to a full count, and walked him. Then David Price came in and struck out Drew on a 1-2 check swing.

Price -- who began the year in the lowly Florida State League -- came back out for the ninth. Jason Bay (cbbfbf) walked, but Price struck out Kotsay (ffbbc) and Varitek (bsfbs). Jed Lowrie pinch-hit for Cora and grounded a 0-1 pitch right to Akinori Iwamura, who grabbed the ball on a high hop and raced to second for the Red-Sox-season-ending force.

The Rays and Phillies will play Game 1 of the World Series at the Trop on Wednesday night.

***

Jon Lester / Matt Garza

Red Sox            Rays
Crisp, CF          Iwamura, 2B
Pedroia, 2B        Upton, CF
Ortiz, DH          Pena, 1B
Youkilis, 3B       Longoria, 3B
Drew, RF           Crawford, LF
Bay, LF            Aybar, DH
Kotsay, 1B         Navarro, C
Varitek, C         Baldelli, RF
Cora, SS           Bartlett, SS

The Globe reports that the Red Sox are "sticking with the idea that Alex Cora hits hard-throwing right-handers better than Jed Lowrie". Cora went 1-for-3 against Garza in Game 3.

I checked their 2008 splits and have decided to not freak out.

Against Power Pitchers
  
Cora    .302/.377/.415
Lowrie  .200/.333/.259
  
Against RHP
  
Cora    .266/.378/.363  
Lowrie  .222/.308/.344

***

Here is a handy chart of how many pitches each reliever has thrown in the series:

Bullpen Pitches Thrown 
  
Red Sox       1   2   3   4   5   6   TOT 
Okajima       4  28          28  32    92
Masterson     5  18      39  15  18    95
Papelbon     12  18          38   8    76
Lopez             1      26            27
Delcarmen        20      28  17        65
Timlin           23      31            54
Byrd                 47                47
  
Rays          1   2   3   4   5   6   TOT 
Howell       12  23  20      25  23   103
Balfour      21  19          25  18    83
Price         3  12                    15
Bradford         24              14    38
Miller            8       6       1    15
Wheeler          48          33        81
Jackson            14  25              39

***

Fact: Tampa Bay is three two one games away from elimination.

The Red Sox have won nine consecutive ALCS elimination games. Tonight, they go for #10.

Kevin Youkilis:

It's amazing. It's really amazing the games we play, and how much fun it's been. When we're all old and our children are all grown up, we'll sit around and meet up and talk about games like the game the other day. It's a wild ride, and we're very spoiled.

Jonathan Papelbon admits he's "pretty beat up". His fastball was only 92-93 mph last night.

For me, in these things, if I don't have my A-plus fastball, I'd better have my A-plus mental approach and my A-plus headset. My head was right tonight.

Hideki Okajima threw two scoreless innings last night -- the third time he has done so in this series.

From Josh Beckett's post-game interview:

Josh, you struggled in the postseason thus far, but tonight you looked like the Josh Beckett of 2003 and 2007.

I don't know really if that's even a question. ...

The Clifford Floyd at-bat in the fourth --

Clifford?

Some of his friends call him that. ...

Also: Post-game Q&As from Maddon and Francona.

Joe Maddon:

We've got one more shot. We can truly teach ourselves a lesson. We can do something that will make an imprint on us for a long time.

You sure can, Joe, and you will, but it's not going to be the good kind of imprint.

Evan Longoria makes no sense:

In my opinion, there'll be less pressure on anyone. We'll throw it out there and have fun. I think there was more pressure when we were up 3-to-1. There was pressure on us to end it. Elimination games are always pressure-packed. You feel you have to win them, and in that situation you start to press. Now it's back to 0-0, and we'll come out and play the way we've been playing all year.

Dood, this is an elimination game! So start pressin'!

Clifford:

They're the World Series champs. You've got to take it from them. They know how to win. They stay poised in tough situations. That said, it's going to happen [tonight].

Sean McAdam, Herald:

The Rays had spent the off day Friday swearing up and down that, nope, there wasn't going to be any sort of carryover effect from Game 5, and yep, they had already forgotten all about it and seemed almost offended by the line of questioning.

Crushing loss? What crushing loss?

But defeats like Thursday's don't wash off in the shower. They stay with you. ...

The cracks are starting to show now. Arguably the best defensive team in the league during the season, the Rays have withered in the field in the last two games. ... The bullpen, so critical to the team's magic this season, suddenly looks vulnerable. ...

Game 7 comes tonight, the game the Rays didn't want. They have whiffed on two chances to put the Red Sox away for good and tonight they get their last chance.

***

It worked in 2004. It worked in 2007. It'll work in 2008.

One.

One game. One win. That's all.

Tonight.

ALCS 6: Red Sox 4, Rays 2

Red Sox - 011 002 000 - 4 10  0
Rays    - 100 010 000 - 2  4  1

Sometime during the seventh inning on Thursday night, I made peace with the fact that the Red Sox 2008 season had come to an end.

But then Boston came back and actually won the game. So while more than a few game threaders were highly anxious throughout Game 6 tonight, I was totally (and surprisingly) calm the entire nine innings. This might as well have been a March 20 spring training game.

After Tampa Bay had tied the game at 2-2 in the fifth, the Red Sox struck back with two outs. Jason Varitek homered to right field (!) -- it was a good thing our young dog was outside at the time, as our sudden yelling in the last two games has freaked her out. Coco Crisp singled, "Small Game" Shields was yanked, Dustin Pedroia reached on an error and David Ortiz singled in Crisp to give the Sox a 4-2 lead.

After Beckett battled through five innings (5-4-2-1-3, 78), Hideki Okajima threw two scoreless innings (allowing only a two-out walk in the sixth), Justin Masterson took care of the eighth (a leadoff HBP was marooned at first) and Jonathan Papelbon needed only eight pitches to get rid of the Rays in the ninth.


It's Lester/Garza on Sunday night -- for the American League pennant.

***

BR Preview: Josh Beckett / James Shields

Fact: Tampa Bay is three two games away from elimination.

We tried to warn Joe Maddon that "when you have your target lined up in your sights, you fucking fire. You don't stop and check if your shoelaces are tied."

But Mr. 9=8 refused to listen. And now -- thanks to a clutch effort from nearly the entire Red Sox team -- his team has its back to the wall and assigned the task of facing Josh Beckett who must be burning to atone for his poor performance in Game 2.

Cliff Floyd:

We don't go up there and think, Now we've got to beat Beckett — no one cares about Beckett. Face him the same way you face everybody else. If anything, Beckett should be worried about us. We just beat him [in Game 2].

Yeah, that's right. Piss him off. Chap his ass real good.

David Ortiz, on Beckett:

This is a big game, dog. I've got the feeling that he's going to bring it.

And on the other side of the field?

The only kind of "Big Game" Shields will be is the kind Beckett and Timlin hunt in the off-season.

The Herald's Steve Buckley describes Ortiz "navigating the media throng that had assembled in front of his locker late yesterday afternoon at Tropicana Field, zigging and zagging to avoid a cameraman, bobbing and weaving to sidestep a guy with a microphone. ... 'I'll talk tomorrow with my bat.'"

According to Win Probability stats, when Justin Masterson got Carlos Pena to GIDP and end the top of the ninth, Boston's chances of winning the game increased 22% -- from 42% to 65%. It was the third most important play of the night. Ortiz's three-run bomb increased the team's chances of a win from 2% to only 9%. So even though it closed the gap from 7-1 to 7-4 -- which got everyone thinking a comeback was truly possible -- the chances of a team getting at least four more runs and winning the game was still highly unlikely.

Greg Agami of Cool Standings told the Globe that after trailing 7-0 after six inning of Game 5, the Red Sox had a 0.1 percent - 1 in 1,000 - chance to win the series. By comparison, in the middle of the ninth inning of 2004 ALCS 4, Boston had a 2.4%. That still seems high to me, but they trailed by only one run at that point -- not seven with a mere seven outs to go -- and had a 50% shot at winning each of Games 5, 6 and 7.

J.P. Howell, recalling the plane ride back to Tampa:

We started joking, "Don't be scared of Game 6." That's what we kept saying. We were bummed out. It was a terrible way to lose a game.

***

JimBoSox9m, SoSH, October 17, 2008, 12:47 AM:

I just don't understand baseball. I don't get it. I've spent my lifetime devoting considerable mental resources to understanding my favorite sport, and I have no fucking clue how they just did that. ... Speechless, thoughtless, struck blind and deaf. Exhilarated, exuberant, overjoyed. What it comes down to? As long as the Sox still have baseball to play, it is still summer in my soul.

Savin Hillbilly, SoSH, October 17, 2008, 1:12 AM:

Just got back from Fenway....Holy SHIT that was amazing. Like the best sex you've ever had, only a 35,000-way.

***

It worked in 2004. It worked in 2007. It'll work in 2008.

One. One game. One win. That's all.

Not two. One.

Tonight.

ALCS 5: Red Sox 8, Rays 7

Rays    - 203 000 200 - 7  8  1
Red Sox - 000 000 431 - 8 11  0

ALIVE!


Tampa Bay was seven outs away from the American League pennant -- and the Red Sox were down by seven runs.

The Rays recorded only six of those outs -- and the Red Sox scored eight times to complete the greatest comeback by any team facing elimination and the second biggest comeback in post-season/World Series history and send this ALCS back to Florida.

David Ortiz's three-run dong to right in the seventh was a big blow -- cutting the lead from 7-1 to 7-4 -- but it was J.D. Drew who was the hero. After Jason Bay walked on four pitches to start the eighth inning, Drew clubbed a two-run shot to right off J.P. Howell to bring Boston to within 7-6. With two outs, Mark Kotsay doubled off B.J. Upton's glove in deep left-center and Coco Crisp capped off a 10-pitch at-bat with a line drive single to right. Gabe Gross's throw did not make the infield on the fly and Kotsay scored the tying run.


With two outs in the bottom of the ninth, Kevin Youkilis reached second base on a throwing error by Evan Longoria. Jason Bay was walked intentionally. Drew then lined a 3-1 pitch over Gross's head in right field and Yook scored the game-winning run.



***

Lineups:

Crisp, CF        Iwamura, 2B
Pedroia, 2B      Upton, CF
Ortiz, DH        Pena, 1B
Youkilis, 3B     Longoria, 3B
Bay, LF          Crawford, LF
Drew, RF         Floyd, DH
Lowrie, SS       Navarro, C
Varitek, C       Gross, RF
Kotsay, 1B       Bartlett, SS

***

BR Preview: Scott Kazmir / Daisuke Matsuzaka

Fact: Tampa Bay is three games away from elimination. The Rays have been conducting a Totally Kicking Ass 101 seminar since last Saturday, but the real ALCS begins tonight. Fenway Park will be rocking. We will make our own destination.

Joe Maddon has altered his pitching rotation, not to go for the kill in Game 5, but to set his team up for a better Game 6 matchup. Big mistake, Joe. Big. Tito the Assassin knows that when you have your target lined up in your sights, you fucking fire. You don't stop and check if your shoelaces are tied.


Choosing Kazmir over Shields has left the ALCS door a bit more open than it was 24 hours ago - and the Large Father & Co. are gonna barge in and make themselves at home. Backs to the wall -- win or go home -- "got to make it interesting" -- this is what we do -- and this is when we do it -- because "If you wear a Red Sox uniform jersey, you're a bad motherfucker."

Stick with me baby, stick with me anyhow
Things should start to get interesting right about now
Bob Dylan - "Mississippi"

***

It worked in 2004. It worked in 2007. It'll work in 2008.

One. One game. One win. That's all.

Not three, not two.

One.

Tonight.

***

Matsuzaka, October 21, 2007:

I don't know if the term "switched on" is the right term or the right way to describe, but I am all on for [tonight].

ALCS 4: Rays 13, Red Sox 4

Rays    - 302 105 020 - 13 14  3
Red Sox - 001 000 120 -  4  7  0

Do you really need (or want) a recap?

Pena and Longoria hit back-to-back home runs in the first and the Rays were off to the races. It was still sort of a game at 6-1 when Tampa Bay battered Delcarmen for a single, a triple, three walks and five runs in the sixth.

Crawford went 5-for-5, with two stolen bases, two RBI and two runs, and Aybar went 4-for-5 with a dong and five RBI.

The Red Sox started to hit the ball with a bit of authority in the seventh and eighth innings. Ortiz tripled to start the eighth and scored on Youkilis's groundout. In the ninth, Lowrie and Pedroia singled and Yook doubled. Kevin Cash's solo home run gave Boston a run in the third.

So the team's backs are to the ALCS wall yet again. It has become a familiar place. We'll see on Thursday if the Red Sox can rally for a third consecutive time in five years.

***

The Assassin Has Returned!

Red Sox          Rays
Drew, RF         Iwamura, 2B
Pedroia, 2B      Upton, CF
Ortiz, DH        Pena, 1B
Youkilis, 3B     Longoria, 3B
Bay, LF          Crawford, LF
Kotsay, 1B       Aybar, DH
Crisp, CF        Navarro, C
Cash, C          Perez, RF
Lowrie, SS       Bartlett, SS

***

BR Preview
Andy Sonnanstine (Rays 20-12 in his starts)
Tim Wakefield (Red Sox 15-15 in his starts)

Sonnanstine faced the Red Sox twice this season -- in consecutive starts on September 10 and 16. He pitched 13 innings and allowed only two unearned runs, along with seven hits and two walks. He struck out 12 and the Rays won both games.

Wakefield made three starts against Tampa Bay in 2008 - one great, one average, and one shitty. He had a rough September (6.65 ERA in 23 innings over five starts) and did not pitch in the ALDS.

One-third of the Red Sox lineup is hitting -- Pedroia (6-for-11, .545/.643/1.182), Bay (5-for-11, .455/.571/.818 and Youkilis (6-for-14, .429/.429/.786) -- and that is not enough. Ortiz, Ellsbury and Varitek are a combined 0-for-34 and Drew is 2-for-8. ... Crisp (3-for-6) needs to play CF tonight.

***

Somewhere around the third or fourth inning yesterday, Jon Miller of ESPN radio started peddling this clump of horseshit:

Red Sox fans are not that far removed from 86 years of pain and suffering. ... doubts may be creeping in.

I'm dealing with the radio delay to avoid ever hearing Chip "OMG!!11!!!1!1 The Rays Totally Rock" Caray, so this really pissed me off. If anyone is embracing the gloom-and-doom-woe-is-us-maybe-the-Curse-never-really-left meme, go right ahead. Make CHB's day. Just stay away from here.

Winning today will even the series. And we were in a deeper pit less than a year ago before roaring back, obliterating Cleveland and sweeping the World Series. (The Red Sox also came back from 0-2 in a best-of-5 in 2003 and from 0-3 in a best-of-7 in 2004 -- remember?)

Bay Being Manny:

We put up eight runs the other night. It's not the end of the world. And we won the first night [scoring two runs].

And to hell with those people who left before the end of yesterday's game. Loyalty does not mean supporting the team only when they are winning. It's a shame you wasted space in a seat that an actual fan could have used.

***

The shots did not work their toasty magic, so we need another source of mojo (though you should keep drinking whiskey). I believe I have found it: Kids playing AC/DC! Here's a 12-year-old kid playing "You Shook Me All Night Long":



***

It's also Election Night in Canada. So FU to Stephen Harper.

ALCS 3: Rays 9, Red Sox 1

Rays    - 014 000 031 - 9 13  0
Red Sox - 000 000 100 - 1  7  0

Lester had a four-pitch first inning (ball, 6-3, 3U, F8) and things looked bright.

But the Rays scored a run in the second on a walk, a single and a groundout. Then the Red Sox had men at second and third with one out and could not score -- though they were relying on Varitek and Cora. Lester was then pounded in the third. Bartlett singled, Iwamura doubled off the Wall, and Upton crushed a three-run dong over everything in left. After Pena struck out looking, Longoria homered to left-center.

Boston could not get anything going against Garza. Pedroia doubled with one out in the first, but was stranded. Then the Sox "stranded a pair" in the second. They had a runner on base in each of the next four innings, but could not move any of them to second. Garza began the seventh at 107 pitches. He seemed gassed as he walked Varitek and allowed a single down the right field line to Cora. Howell came in and gave up a sac fly to Ellsbury, which made the score 5-1. Pedroia then grounded into a 5-4-3 DP to end the inning. The only baserunner for Boston in the final two innings was Drew's two-out single in the eighth.

Byrd relieved Lester in the sixth and pitched the rest of the way. He gave up a three-run home run to Baldelli in the eighth that put the game on ice. Pena pounded a dong to left-center in the ninth as an exclamation point.

The one Boston run in the seventh meant that the Red Sox avoided being shut out at Fenway Park in a post-season game for the first time since Game 5 of the 1918 World Series.

The Rays lead this series 2-1. Game 4 is tomorrow night.

***

BR Preview

Matt Garza (Rays 14-16 in his starts)
Jon Lester (Red Sox 22-11 in his starts)

Red Sox                 Rays
  
Jacoby Ellsbury, CF     Akinori Iwamura, 2B
Dustin Pedroia, 2B      B.J. Upton, CF
David Ortiz, DH         Carlos Pena, 1B
Kevin Youkilis, 3B      Evan Longoria, 3B
J.D. Drew, RF           Carl Crawford, LF
Jason Bay, LF           Willy Aybar, DH
Mark Kotsay, 1B         Dioner Navarro, C
Jason Varitek, C        Rocco Baldelli, RF
Alex Cora, SS           Jason Bartlett, SS

After splitting the first two games, the ALCS is now a best-of-5 -- and Boston has both home field advantage and Jon Lester set to pitch two of those possible five games.

Lester made three starts against the Rays this season, allowing only two runs in 20 innings (0.90 ERA). 18 hits, six walks, 19 strikeouts. He had a 2.49 ERA in 17 Fenway starts. He was second on the Red Sox staff with a 143 ERA+.

Garza -- in the first full season of his career -- started four games against the Red Sox, allowing 14 runs (11 earned) in 22 innings (4.50). He walked seven, struck out 10 and gave up four dongs. His 118 ERA+ was third best on the Rays staff.

There are rumblings that Alex Cora may get a start today. I'd rather Terry Francona stick to putting the best players in the lineup, thank you very much. But the Assassin loves Einstein, so I hope Flo and Lyndon pick today to come out of their offensive shells.

Corsi Combover has some fine Columbus Day art at SoSH. It's Thanksgiving Day in Canada and we're off with some friends and their dogs. You're on your own as far as links go, but the ProJo blog has press conference transcripts and a bunch of other stuff in one place.

***

NLCS 4: Phillies (2)/Dodgers (1) at 8

ALCS 2: Rays 9, Red Sox 8 (11)

Red Sox - 201 031 010 00 - 8  12  0
Rays    - 202 130 000 01 - 9  12  0

***

BR Preview
Josh Beckett (Red Sox 13-14 in his starts)
Scott Kazmir (Rays 18-9 in his starts)

Red Sox                  Rays
Jacoby Ellsbury, CF      Akinroi Iwamura, 2B
Dustin Pedroia, 2B       B.J. Upton, CF
David Ortiz, DH          Carlos Pena, 1B
Kevin Youkilis, 3B       Evan Longoria, 3B
Jason Bay, LF            Carl Crawford, LF
Jed Lowrie, SS           Cliff Floyd, DH
Jason Varitek, C         Dioner Navarro, C
Mark Kotsay, 1B          Gabe Gross, RF
Coco Crisp, CF           Jason Bartlett, SS

Terry Francona says there is nothing wrong with Drew. He merely likes how Ococ has hit against Red Dot.

The Globe has great quotes from the press conferences with Francona and Maddon this afternoon.

***

Beckett vs Rays - 2008

     IP    H  R BB  K  BF  PIT
0427  7    4  2  1 13  26  107  Rays 3-0
0503  8    7  4  1  5  31  100  Red Sox 12-4
0604  6    7  1  0  5  24   92  Red Sox 5-1
0910  6    6  1  2  7  26   84  Rays 4-2
0916  8    3  1  1  7  28   95  Rays 2-1
     35   27  9  5 37

Kazmir vs Red Sox - 2008

     IP    H  R BB  K  BF  PIT
0504  4    6  4  3  5  21   90  Red Sox 7-3
0702  5    7  4  4  3  25  107  Rays 7-6
0909  6    5  2  3  4  25  108  Rays 5-4
0915  3    6  9  4  2  19   72  Red Sox 13-5
     18   24 19 14 14

SoSHer draven085 says that Kazmir is

allowing significantly more flyballs than in years past and his line drive rate has never been higher in the big leagues. His strikeout rate also dipped [from 2007 to 2008] by .6 K/9 while his BB/9 rose .25. A BABIP of .275 and a strand rate of 82.5% helped masked some of his disappointing season but there's little reason to think this is the same pitcher who has often dominated the Sox over the past couple of years. ... I don't think there's any reason to be nervous about facing him.

MLB:

In the Red Sox's last 12 post-season games (from 2007 ALCS 5 to last night), the starting pitchers have a 1.93 ERA (74.1 IP, 16 ER).

The Globe profiles Kazmir. ... Joe Maddon said he's cool with his decisions to give the green light on 3-0 to both Evan Longoria in the sixth and Carlos Pena in the eighth.

The NLCS is off today. Brett Myers of the Phillies is only the fourth pitcher since 1919 to get three hits in a post-season game (and the eighth overall).

ALCS 1: Red Sox 2, Rays 0

Red Sox - 000 010 010 - 2  7  0
Rays    - 000 000 000 - 0  4  0

Matsuzaka took a no-hitter into the seventh inning and the bullpen trio of Hideki Okajima, Justin Masterson and Jonathan Papelbon shut the door on the Rays.

In the fifth inning against Shields, Jason Bay walked and raced to third on Mark Kotsay's pop fly double down the left field line. Jed Lowrie's fly out to right scored Bay with the night's first run. (The Red Sox had threatened in the first. Dustin Pedroia walked with one out and went to third on Kevin Youkilis's two-out ground-rule double to right, but J.D. Drew struck out.)

Boston made it 2-0 in the eighth when Pedroia singled with one out. He stole second before David Ortiz walked and then he scored on Youkilis's double off the tip of Carl Crawford's glove in shallow left.

Dice walked three Rays in the first, but wiggled out of trouble, retiring retired 16 out of the next 17 batters. He started the seventh by allowing two singles, but with runners at first and third he got a fly ball to short left, a strikeout and a fielder's choice.

Matsuzaka allowed two more singles to start the seventh and was pulled. Jeemer got Carlos Pena to hack on 3-0 and fly out to Drew in right-center. Then Masterson got Evan Longoria to hit into a 6-4-3 DP. Bot set down Tampa in order in the ninth: K, PF5, K.

NLCS: The Philles held off the Dodgers 8-5 to take a 2-0 lead in the series.

***

BR Preview
Daisuke Matsuzaka (Red Sox 23-6 in his starts)
James Shields (Rays 22-11 in his starts)

Red Sox                  Rays
Jacoby Ellsbury, CF      Akinroi Iwamura, 2B
Dustin Pedroia, 2B       B.J. Upton, CF
David Ortiz, DH          Carlos Pena, 1B
Kevin Youkilis, 3B       Evan Longoria, 3B
J.D. Drew, RF            Carl Crawford, LF
Jason Bay, LF            Cliff Floyd, DH
Mark Kotsay, 1B          Dioner Navarro, C
Jed Lowrie, SS           Gabe Gross, RF
Jason Varitek, C         Jason Bartlett, SS

***


It Is On!

Tampa Bay and Boston met 18 times during the regular season. The Rays won 10 games, the Red Sox eight. Eleven of the 18 games were decided by three runs or fewer, six by one run (the Rays won all six of those), two in extra innings. Home records: Rays 8-1, Red Sox 7-2. ... And they brawled on June 5.

Rays vs. Red Sox in 2008

     Winner/Score  Park
 
0425 Rays 5-4 (11) Trop
0426 Rays 2-1      Trop
0427 Rays 3-0      Trop
 
0502 Red Sox 7-3   Fenway
0503 Red Sox 12-4  Fenway
0504 Red Sox 7-3   Fenway
 
0603 Red Sox 7-4   Fenway
0604 Red Sox 5-1   Fenway
0605 Red Sox 7-1   Fenway
 
0630 Rays 5-4      Trop
0701 Rays 3-1      Trop
0702 Rays 7-6      Trop
 
0908 Red Sox 3-0   Fenway
0909 Rays 5-4      Fenway
0910 Rays 4-2 (14) Fenway
 
0915 Red Sox 13-5  Trop
0916 Rays 2-1      Trop
0917 Rays 10-3     Trop

Dice vs Rays

     IP    H  R BB  K  BF  PIT
0602  5    2  1  2  5  22  101  Rays 7-6
0909  5    8  3  4  5  28  102  Rays 5-4
0915  5    3  1  2  7  21  101  Red Sox 13-5

Shields vs Red Sox

     IP    H  R BB  K  BF  PIT
0427  9    2  0  1  7  29   99  Rays 3-0
0503  3.2 10  7  2  3  24   98  Red Sox 12-1
0605  1    3  4  0  2   8   27  Red Sox 7-1
0630  6.1  5  2  1  5  24  104  Rays 5-4

Speaking of numbers, does 9 really equal 8?

The Red Sox added Mike Timlin to the roster for the ALCS. Gil Valezquez -- who was added mid-DS in place of Mike Lowell -- was left off. ... The Rays added pitcher Edwin Jackson and subtracted Eric Hinske.

Joe Maddon, on the evenness of the two teams:

I think you can expect a lot of what you saw during the regular season; I do. There will be a lot of tight games, I think. Both sides have got good starting pitching and bullpens. Offensively, they probably have a little bit more hitting ability overall, but we have that ability to hit in the clutch. ...

[I]n a seven-game series like this, you truly have to play it one at a time ... it's really magnified at this particular juncture. ...

They're probably saying the same things — it's pretty even based on the familiarity with the two groups, the number of times that we have played against one another, the close games we have played against each another; the fact that we've finally broken through up there a little bit and they got their win down here. It's really a very balanced situation and it's going to come down to the pitching once again. ... It's going to be a grind-it-out kind of series.

Fox:

Boston and Tampa are young, tough, hungry, and athletic. They're everything the New York Yankees are not.

The Rays bullpen has been lights out against the Red Sox in Tampa. In the nine Trop games, the quintet of Grant Balfour, J.P. Howell, Dan Wheeler, Trever Miller, and Chad Bradford has made 18 appearances, pitching 18.2 innings. They have allowed only 11 hits and 7 walks (0.96 WHIP) and one earned run (0.48 ERA), while striking out 15.


Red Sox Blog Watch: Firebrand lists "the five most important moments" between the Rays and Red Sox in 2008 ... Over The Monster reports on the surprise press conference at which a teary-eyed John Henry vowed the Red Sox would "return to its roots" and "start losing again" ... Paul SF previews the series at YFSF and he agrees with me: Sox in 6 ... Survivng Grady presents a special edition of "Ellsbury 'n' Elf" ... Out in CF notes that the rays at the Florida Aquarium are being fed "little Red Sox-shaped snacks".

Globe predictions:

CHB:        BOS 7 - LAD 5
Cafardo:    BOS 7 - PHI 7
Benjamin*:  BOS 7 - LAD 5
Massarotti: TBR 6 - LAD 6
Kilgore:    TBR 6 - LAD 7
*: Benjamin was the only Glober to pick the Red Sox over the Angels.

Michael Silverman, Herald: Red Sox in 7. ... David Pinto, Baseball Musings: "Flipping a coin might be just as good. The Red Sox are my favorite, but with just a 51% chance of winning the series." ... Yahoo ran 10,000 AccuScore simulations of the ALCS: The Red Sox won 53% of them.

The Hardball Times: Why the Rays will win / Why the Red Sox will win. ... Christina Kahrl has BP's preview: Rays in 6. ... The Globe's Eric Wilbur has collected a lot of media predictions here.

Not sufficiently fired up yet? Well .....

How about now?

ALDS 4: Red Sox 3, Angels 2

Angels  - 000 000 020 - 2  6  1
Red Sox - 000 020 001 - 3  9  0

YES!!!!!!!!

Red Sox win the ALDS and will open the ALCS in Tampa Bay on Friday night.

Jed Lowrie's hard single to right field scored Jason Bay, who had hit a one-out ground-rule double, with the winning run in the bottom of the ninth. Bay's head-first slide got him across the plate before Reggie Willits's throw arrived at the dish. And it was Willits's ill-advised dive on Bay's fly ball that allowed it to hop into the seats for two bases rather than being fielded on a hop for a single.

The ALDS-winning run revitalized a Fenway crowd that had been stunned by the Angels's two-run rally against Hideki Okajima and Justin Masterson in the top of the eighth. Jeemer retired the first two Angels on ground balls to second, but he walked Mark Teixeira on four pitches. Masterson came in and got ahead of Vlad Guerrero 0-2, but ended up walking him. Then he crossed up Jason Varitek by throwing a fastball when Tek was expecting a slider. The passed ball moved the runners to second and third -- and Torii Hunter's single to right field scored them both.

The Angels threatened to take the lead in the ninth. Kendry Morales doubled. Howie Kendrick bunted pinch-runner Willits to third. Manny Delcarmen relieved Masterson. Erick Aybar tried to squeeze on 2-0 but missed the pitch. Varitek then chased Willits back up the line towards third, lunging and tagging him on the back when Willits was five feet from the bag. Tek then fell down and the ball popped out of his glove, but the umpire rightly ruled it an out. The Angels strongly disagreed. Two pitches later, Aybar grounded to first for the third out.

Boston had taken a 2-0 lead in the fifth on singles from Mark Kotsay and Varitek, an RBI grounder from Jacoby Ellsbury and an RBI double off the Wall from Dustin Pedroia (who finished the series 1-for-17).

Lester (7-4-0-2-4, 109) was everything we could have asked for. Only four outs were recorded outside of the infield in seven innings and Lester allowed only one LAA runner past second base. In two ALDS starts, he gave up one unearned run in 14 innings. MVP awards are not given out for the DS, but Lester deserved one in this series.

In addition to doubling and scoring the winning run, Bay also walked and singled. Only Youkilis and Ellsbury did not collect hits, but Lyndon drove in the first Boston run and Yook was an absolute beast in the field yet again, playing third in place of Mike Lowell and making several excellent plays and throws. Kotsay also made two sterling plays on pop flies in the sixth and seventh innings.

The Rays beat the White Sox 6-2 earlier in the evening to win their series 3 games to 1.

***

John Lackey / Jon Lester

Lowell Replaced on Roster; Out For ALDS & ALCS
Mike Lowell has been removed from the Red Sox's roster due to a right hip strain. Gil Velazquez replaces Lowell and is available for tonight's game. This move means Lowell would be ineligible for the ALCS.

***

Photo: October 9, 2004

***

ish had a great line this morning:

Reality sneaks up on you fast in a short series, doesn't it?

It sure does. The Red Sox -- riding high, up 2-0, with fans thinking ahead to Friday's ALCS -- are now faced with the prospect of flying back across the country to Anaheim for a do-or-die Game 5 with the often exasperating (despite the low ERA) Daisuke Matsuzaka on the hill if they cannot find their bats and win tonight.

Jacoby Ellsbury (6-for-14, 3 doubles, 3 SB, 5 RBI) and Jason Bay (5-for-14, 2 dongs, though he was 0-for-5 last night) are going their part, but several players, including Dustin Pedroia (0-for-13, "I've got to get on [expletive] base"), Mike Lowell (0-for-8) and Jason Varitek (2-for-11) are not.

On the mound, it's a rematch of Game 1, which Boston won 4-1:

          IP   H   R  ER  BB   K  PIT
Lackey   6.2   4   2   2   3   5   92
Lester   7.0   6   1   0   1   7  117

The Globe reports that Lowell

could barely walk as he came into the clubhouse after the game. He was late, as many of his teammates had already done sessions with the media and moved on. He had difficulty putting on his pants.

Hopefully, by midnight tonight, pants will be optional.

But first: Rays (2)/White Sox (1) at 5 PM

ALDS 3: Angels 5, Red Sox 4 (12)

Angels  - 102 010 000 001 - 5 16  0
Red Sox - 030 010 000 000 - 4  7  0

Hell of a game and a tough one to lose. If this had been an all-or-nothing game for both sides, this 5:19 battle -- the see-saw battle of the first five innings and the many missed opportunities for both teams after that -- would be on a short list of classic DS games.

Beckett had neither stuff nor control (5-9-4-4-6, 106), throwing 30 pitches in the first inning and 70 through the first three frames. He escaped the first down only 1-0, despite allowing a single, double and two walks. The Angels stranded eight runners in the first four innings.

With two outs in the second, Saunders walked Jed Lowrie, gave up a single to Jason Varitek and walked Coco Crisp. Jacoby Ellsbury popped the ball into short center. Howie Kendrick tracked it, took a peek at Torii Hunter coming in from center and backed off. The ball fell between them and Ellsbury was credited with the first three-run single in post-season history!

(That was not the only blunder made by the Angels. Torii Hunter was gunned down trying to stretch a single into a double to start the ninth inning. Jason Bay fired the ball in from the left field line to Dustin Pedroia. FY whirled around to make a quick tag, was surprised to see that Hunter wasn't there and had to actually wait a beat or two to make the easy tag on the headfirst-sliding Hunter!)

Mike Napoli hit a two-run home run in the third and a solo dong in the fifth as LA took a 4-3 lead. Boston came right back to tie in their half on doubles by Ellsbury and Kevin Youkilis.

After the fifth, the Boston bats went AWOL. Their next hit would not come until the tenth inning. And it was at that time, against Francisco Rodriguez, that Boston had their best chance at a seies-clinching walkoff. After Dustin Pedroia (now 0-for-13 in the series) struck out, David Ortiz worked a seven-pitch walk. Yook singled to center and after Frod fanned Jason Bay, Mike Lowell also drew a seven-pitch pass. With Alex Cora running for Lowell, Lowrie smoked a pitch to right, but it was hit right at Gary Matthews for the final out. The Sox made Frod work, though, throwing 33 pitches in his one inning of work.

The Angels scored the winning run off Javier Lopez when Napoli opened the 12th with a ground ball single to left. He was bunted to second and scored on Erick Aybar's bloop hit to short center. Ortiz walked to start the bottom of the 12th, but Yook (F8) Bay (K looking) and Cora (5-3) could not move him along.

I look at all the chicken scratchings on my scorecard -- completely full at 12 innings -- and realize I could blab on for quite awhile, taking you through the six shutout innings tossed by the MDC-Jeemer-Masterson-Bot quartet and a bunch of other stuff.

And if I had punished my mind and ears with TBS sound, I could (judging from the game thread) offer plenty of pro-Angels BS from Chip Caray and Buck Martinez. A very blatant example came in the top of the seventh when Caray was doing a promo about possible Monday games and said that "hopefully" this series would go to a Game 4. He quickly qualified that statement with an "if you're an Angels fan" addendum.

The thought of relying on Daisuke Matsuzaka in a Game 5 in Anaheim on Wednesday is a bit scary, so let's hope Jon Lester is sharp on Monday night.

Also: The White Sox beat the Rays 5-3 and staved off elimination for another day. The Phillies beat the Brewers 6-2 and will begin the NLCS against the Dodgers on Thursday.

***

Pre-game note: Many of you have helped SoSock/Tim and Cathy raise money for a used car -- and I thank you profusely. ... I blog because I enjoy doing it. I'm against having a "tip cup" and I loathe advertising. I blog for free, you read for free. Simple. However, if you do feel like showing your appreciation for JoS (or you're just feeling generous!), please consider helping two of my friends. Thanks again.

***

Joe Saunders (3.41, 128 ERA+) / Josh Beckett (4.03, 114 ERA+)

Back at Fenway Park -- where they went 56-25 this year -- the Red Sox go for their third consecutive ALDS sweep over the hapless Angels.
Los Angeles has a slight advantage when it comes to tonight's starters. Saunders led the Angels in Adjusted ERA and finished the regular season with 15 straight scoreless innings. In 2008, he put up Quality Starts in each of his three outings against the Red Sox: 18.2 IP, 18 H, 9 BB, 6 K, 3.38.

Past history says that Beckett "deserved" the ball in Game 1, but based on this year's performance, he's slotted in his rightful place as the 3rd starter. Beckett faced Los Angeles twice in July (13.1-20-2-14, 7.42). P.S.: After pictures of Beckett dragging his suitcase out of Fenway with his right arm last week were published, SoSH had some alternate theories of why Beckett was held back.

Against Saunders: Pedroia has the best average (7-for-18, .389), while Coco Crisp is 5-for-17, with four doubles and a home run. ... Against Beckett: Mrs. Garrett wears him out (.471 average, 1.291 OPS).

Note: If the Red Sox win tonight, Beckett could start ALCS 1 on Friday on normal rest. However, that would give both Lester and Matsuzaka nine days of rest before Games 2 and 3.

Before Boston:

Phillies (2)/Brewers (1) at 1
Rays (2)/White Sox (0) at 4

Dodgers sweep Cubs: There will be no 1918 rematch.

ALDS 2: Red Sox 7, Angels 5

Red Sox - 400 100 002 - 7  14  0
Angels  - 100 110 110 - 5  12  2

Wow. After Chone Figgins tripled off Justin Masterson to begin the bottom of the eighth and scored the tying run on a sacrifice fly off Jonathan Papelbon, Boston stormed back against Francisco Rodriguez in the top of the ninth.

David Ortiz pounded Frod's first pitch to deep right. Reggie Willits leapt at the wall, the ball hit in, and then fell out of, his glove, and Flo had a stand-up double. Coco Crisp went in to run before Kevin Youkilis grounded to third. With J.D. Drew at the plate, Frod tried to pick Crisp off second. His throw to Willie Aybar was in plenty of time, but Aybar neglected to tag the Crisp and Ococ slid back in between the shortstop's legs. Drew swung and missed on two pitches and worked the count to 2-2 before crushing a home run just to the right of dead center.

Drew: "I squared it up really nice."

It broke the tie and gave the Red Sox a 7-5 lead. Frod continued to melt down, allowing an infield hit to Jason Bay and a line drive single to Mark Kotsay. Jason Varitek hit into a double play to end the inning.

Bot had come in after Figgins's triple and had retired three straight Angels in the eighth on only seven pitches. Torii Hunter began LA's last gasp with a hard bunt towards third. Youkilis sprinted in, bare-handed the ball and fired to first. One out. Pinch-hitter Gary Matthews popped a full count pitch towards the third base camera pit. Yook ran over, timed his leap, and snared the ball over the heads of the crouching photogs. Then Bot whiffed Howie Kendrick to give Boston a 2-0 lead in the series.

The ninth-inning dugout TBS shots told you everything you needed to know about this series. The Angels were in shock, staring out at the field with glassy, dead eyes. As Frod struggled to get outs in the ninth, they knew they were playing their last home game of the 2008 season. As the Red Sox rolled to their 11th straight post-season win over the Angels, they knew they were finished. (And WTF was with the announcing team of Chip Caray and Buck Martinez? Were they auditioning for jobs as LAA's Hawk Harrelson-type announcers? I watched the last 3-4 innings on mute.)

The game looked initially like a rout, as the Sox scored four times in the first. But the Angels chipped away, scoring one in the bottom of the first, on three straight singles from Mark Teixeira, Vladimir Guerrero and Hunter. Boston made it 5-1 on back-to-back doubles by Alex Cora and Jacoby Ellsbury, but the Angels got that run right back. Juan Rivera walked to start the fourth and scored on Chone Figgins's singled to left.

Matsuzaka walked Teixeira and Vlad to begin the fifth and Hunter singled home Tex. After that, Dice bore down, striking out Rivera, getting Kendrick on a fly to center, and retiring Kendry Morales on a pop to third. But that was the night for Dice (5-8-3-3-5), who threw 108 pitches in five innings, including 61 (!) in his final two innings.

Hideki Okajima pitched a perfect sixth, but allowed hits to Teixeira and Guerrero to begin the seventh. At that point, those two guys were 8-for-8 in reaching base. Masterson came in and got three outs, but not before walking two more Angels (the first on a blown call by the home plate umpire) and forcing in LA's fourth run.

The Red Sox wasted a golden scoring chance in the sixth. With one out, Kotsay reached on Hunter's error on a fly ball right at him in center. Varitek singled, chasing Santana, and Jose Arredondo walked Cora to load the bases. Ellsbury fanned on a slider in the dirt and Dustin Pedroia (0-for-5) grounded to second. Boston also could do nothing with a couple of two-out singles from Drew and Bay in the seventh.

But in the end, Boston dined out on monkey burgers. They get to enjoy another off day on Saturday before getting back to some broom work on Sunday.
***

Boston 1st:

Ellsbury PF5, Pedroia K, Ortiz single, Youkilis single, Drew double (1-0), Bay home run (4-0), Kotsay single, Varitek P6.

Earlier this evening, Tampa Bay beat the White Sox 6-2, to take a 2-0 lead in the other ALDS. The NL is off tonight.

***

Daisuke Matsuzaka (2.90, 158 ERA+) / Ervin Santana (3.49, 125 ERA+)

Lineups:

Red Sox                 Angels
Jacoby Ellsbury, CF     Chone Figgins, 3B
Dustin Pedroia, 2B      Garret Anderson, LF
David Ortiz, DH         Mark Teixeira, 1B
Kevin Youkilis, 3B      Vladimir Guerrero, DH
J.D. Drew, RF           Torii Hunter, CF
Jason Bay, LF           Juan Rivera, RF
Mark Kotsay, 1B         Howie Kendrick, 2B
Jason Varitek, C        Jeff Mathis, C
Alex Cora, SS           Erick Aybar, SS

***

Mike Lowell calls Game 2 "a monster game for them and a tremendous opportunity for us".

The Angels are facing the possibility of heading back to Boston down 0-2. The worst case scenario for the Red Sox has them tied 1-1 with Josh Beckett set to pitch on Sunday night.

Yesterday, Beckett had what Terry Francona called "a pretty aggressive side [session] ... Nothing was cut short. His fastball had some finish to it and he threw all his pitches." Depending on who you asked, he threw either 65 pitches (John Farrell) or 67 (Francona).

Farrell:

[T]he extension that he was able to get with his fastball, the down-and-away area to a righthanded hitter, which is always going to indicate the furthest extension from the throwing arm [was good]. There was no discomfort in the oblique. So provided that there's no concerns coming out of his exam, or a follow-up exam tomorrow, he should be on line for Sunday.

So Dice now has a mohawk? I could not find a picture though.

Lowell probably will not be in the lineup tonight. Francona may rest Lowell and play Mark Kotsay (7-for-18 against Santana) at first, moving Kevin Youkilis to third. (More on Yook's great play late in Game 1.)

Mike Timlin says "there's a real possibility" he could retire after this post-season. ... Transcripts of Thursday interviews with Francona, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Mike Scioscia and Howie Kendrick.

A Boston victory tonight would set a franchise record of nine consecutive postseason victories. The MLB record is 12, set twice by the Yankees. ... In the eight wins so far, the pitching staff has a 1.88 ERA. ... A win tonight would also set a major league record for consecutive playoff victories against a single opponent (11).

Starting times for the rest of this series were announced:

Game 3: Sun at Boston, 7:17 PM
Game 4: Mon at Boston, 8:37 PM
          (8 PM if CWS-TBR series over)
Game 5: Wed at Anaheim, 9:37 PM
          (8:37 PM if CWS-TBR series over)

Only one other game today:

White Sox (0)/Rays (1) at 6

ALDS 1: Red Sox 4, Angels 1

Red Sox - 000 002 002 - 4  8  1
Angels  - 001 000 000 - 1  9  1

Jason Bay crushed a high fastball from John Lackey to deep left with two outs in the sixth, giving the Red Sox a 2-1 lead. RBI singles from Jacoby Ellsbury and David Ortiz provided some ninth-inning insurance.

Lester started off on the wrong foot, allowing two hits and a walk in the first inning. He left the bases loaded and although he allowed an unearned run in the third, he also stranding two more baserunners. After Torii Hunter's single gave LA a 1-0 lead, Lester retired 13 of his next 15 batters, including striking out the side in the sixth. Only one of his 21 outs was hit beyond the infield.

Justin Masterson allowed a couple of singles in the eighth, but a bone-headed baserunning play from Vladimir Guerrero cut a potential rally short. Vlad, who can barely jog, tried to go from first to third on a pop single to short right and Kevin Youkilis gunned him down by -- seriously -- 35 feet.

Jonathan Papelbon took care of the Angels in the ninth -- as many of the "fans" had packed up their noisemakers du jour and gone home.

Ellsbury had three hits and a stolen base; he also reached on a three-base error by right fielder Gary Matthews. And he made a diving catch on a sinking liner for the first out in the LAA eighth. ... Pedroia walked twice, Yook singled and walked, Bay doubled and donged, and Lowrie singled and scored.

In the NL: the Phillies beat the Brewers 3-1 and the Dodgers beat the Cubs 7-2.

***

Jon Lester (3.21, 143 ERA+) / John Lackey (3.75, 116 ERA+)

Results of the ALDS Poll:

Corrected Lineups:

Red Sox                Angels
Jacoby Ellsbury, CF    Chone Figgins, 3B
Dustin Pedroia, 2B     Garret Anderson, LF
David Ortiz, DH        Mark Teixeira, 1B
Kevin Youkilis, 1B     Vladimir Guerrero, DH
J.D. Drew, RF          Torii Hunter, CF
Jason Bay, LF          Howie Kendrick, 2B
Mike Lowell, 3B        Mike Napoli, C
Jed Lowrie, SS         Gary Matthews Jr., RF
Jason Varitek, C       Erick Aybar, SS

        IP    H  BB  K   WHIP  AVG  OBP  SLG
Lester 210.1 202 66 152 1.274 .256 .320 .368
Lackey 163.1 161 40 130 1.231 .260 .315 .435

Lester finished 4th in the AL in ERA.

          W-L    RS   RA   DIF  EXPWL  OPS+ ERA+
Red Sox  95-67  845  694  +151  95-67  108  114
Angels  100-62  765  697  + 68  88-74   96  109
  
          AVG  OBP  SLG  RS/G  RA/G   ERA
Red Sox  .280 .358 .447  5.22  4.28  4.01
Angels   .268 .330 .413  4.72  4.30  4.00

So we hit better, get on base more often, have more power, score more runs, and allow fewer runs. ... Tell me again: Why the Angels are favoured in this series?

Is it their closer? Which of these three closers do you like?

    IP    H  BB   K   ERA  OBP  SLG  WHIP IR/S
A  68.2  54  34  77  2.24 .314 .316 1.288 18/7
B  69.1  58   8  77  2.34 .245 .315 0.952 30/4
C  67.1  39  19  66  1.60 .248 .255 0.861  6/2

Closer A has walked a ton of batters and his ability at preventing inherited runners from scoring is putrid. At least one writer gives huge weight to a worthless stat and thinks A is the AL MVP. ... I'm assuming you know who A & B are (think Angels and Boston). Any writers considering Frod for MVP should probably slot Joakim Soria (C) even further up on the ballot.

***

Lackey's last outing? 2.2 IP, 12 hits, 10 runs! In four September starts, batters pounded him to the tune of a 1.042 OPS (.356/.420/.622). Since July 5, he has a 5.42 ERA in 94.2 innings. ... He did well in his two starts against Boston, though: July 18 (7-5-3-2-6) and July 29 (9-2-2-2-4).

Before the issue of Josh Beckett's oblique forced a shuffling of the rotation, there was talk that Lester should pitch Game 3 at Fenway because of his poor road record this year. That will not happen, though Lester would be pitching Game 4 in Boston, if necessary.

Lester's splits from this season:

      GS   ERA   IP    H   BB   K  AVG  OBP  SLG
Home  17  2.49  115.2 103  35  86 .240 .303 .361
Road  16  4.09   94.2  99  31  66 .275 .341 .375

I think the home/road ERA split is exaggerated -- and, ultimately, should not cause anyone to worry. (For those who care, his home/road records were 11-1 and 5-5.)

First, let's note that in both 2006 and 2007, Lester did not have much of a split.

2007   IP     ERA    OPS
Home   23    4.30   .775
Road   40    4.72   .740
  
2006   IP     ERA    OPS
Home   49.1  4.74   .807
Road   32    4.78   .825

So why the bigger split in 2008? Well, two of Lester's worst starts of the year came on the road. He allowed six runs in five innings in Houston on June 28 and gave up seven runs in 2.1 innings in Toronto on August 23. If you toss out those bad days, his road ERA drops a full run -- from 4.09 to 3.09.

Of course, those starts did happen, but when you are working with a small sample size, a crappy outing or two -- for whatever reason -- can have a larger than deserved effect. Also, there is a touch of poor luck with his road BABIP (batting average on balls in play) -- a somewhat high .321.

Lester saw Los Angeles once this year -- April 23 at Fenway. 5-9-4-2-1, 80. The Angels won 6-4. Lester has pitched in Anaheim twice (once each in 2006 and 2007), allowing 14 hits, seven walks and eight runs in 8.1 innings.

According to the Globe, Beckett threw lightly on Tuesday: "30 throws from 60 feet, moved back to 90 feet and made 20 throws, then moved back to 60". Francona: "Everything was very encouraging. Everything was real positive." ... Plenty of additional links in Art Marrone's column.

BP's Joe Sheehan agrees with me: Red Sox in 4 (though he adds: "There is no result — a sweep, a five-game series, either team winning — that would come as a surprise.).

Finally: The Boston media is misrepresenting Manny Ramirez's latest comments about his time in Boston. The Herald's Gerry Callahan writes that Manny's "problem with Boston [was] us. You and me. Fans and media." Actually, what Manny said was this:

The fans in Boston got your back no matter what, but I'm talking about the people who write all this bull because it means so much to them.

So: the fans are great and the writers are dicks. And that's the reason for the media's negative spin.

Remember: SHOTS = VICTORY! We're 7-for-7!

***

Other games today:

NLDS 1: Brewers at Phillies at 3
NLDS 1: Dodgers at Cubs at 6

G162: Red Sox 4, Yankees 3 (10)

Yankees - 000 001 002 0 - 3  9  1
Red Sox - 100 000 020 1 - 4  7  0

***

Sidney Ponson (5.21, 83 ERA+) / Tim Wakefield (4.24, 108 ERA+)

***

W-L Contest: The remaining contestants are:

                                   MBM OPS
If Red Sox win:  Rob         95-67   1.038
If Red Sox lose: Zenslinger  94-68   1.015

Manny's 2008 OPS: 1.031.

YED Contest: The winner is Lewis S!

G161: Yankees 6, Red Sox 2

Yankees - 000 300 003 - 6 10  1
Red Sox - 000 000 020 - 2  5  0

***

Mike Mussina (3.47, 124 ERA+) / Daisuke Matsuzaka (2.80, 163 ERA+)

First game of a day-night doubleheader.

The only thing I want today (besides no Red Sox injuries)? No 20th W for Mussina.

***

There are still two undecided playoff spots: the AL Central and the NL Wild Card.

In the AL Central, the Twins are 0.5 GA of the White Sox.

Cleveland/White Sox at 2
Royals/Twins at 2

If the Twins win and the White Sox lose, Minnesota wins the division and heads to Tampa Bay. In any other scenario -- both teams win, both teams lose, White Sox win/Twins lose -- the teams would remain a half-game apart and the White Sox would have to make up a September 13 rainout against Detroit. That game would be in Chicago at 1 PM on Monday. If, after that game, the White Sox are tied for first place with the Twins, they would play Minnesota in another tiebreaker, also in Chicago, on Tuesday. The ALDS against the Rays starts on Thursday.

Over in the NL, the Mets and Brewers are tied for the wild card.

Marlins/Mets at 1
Cubs/Brewers at 2

If Milwaukee and New York remain tied, a one-game playoff would be played in New York on Monday. Both NLDS begin on Wednesday.

***

JoS Contest Updates:

The Red Sox have 94 wins, with two games scheduled for today. The W-L contest tie-breaker is Manny Ramirez's OPS, based on his complete 2008 season. Right now, Manny has an 1.031 OPS (.927 with Boston, 1.232 with Los Angeles). When we weed out the sub-1.000 OPS entries, we are left with:

                             MBM OPS
The Pita               96-66   1.037
Matt                   96-66   1.014
Paul Hadzewycz         96-66   1.012
  
SoSock                 95-67   1.062
Rob                    95-67   1.038
MikeT9485              95-67   1.013
  
Zenslinger             94-68   1.015
Devine                 94-68   1.001

It looks like it's between Zenslinger, Rob and The Pita. If Manny decides to hit four dongs or something, SoSock might enter the mix.

In the Yankee Elimination Day contest, we are looking at the first tiebreaker. The Yankees have 88 wins going into today's doubleheader. Our remaining contestants:

                     NY     Last Red
              YED   Wins    Sox Win
  
Lewis S      0923    89     ALDS 4
Franco B     0923    88     G 162
Chuck C      0923    88     ALDS 4
Zenslinger   0923    88     ALCS 5

G161: Yankees at Red Sox, PPD.

Today's game has been postponed.

There will be a day-night doubleheader tomorrow (1:30 and 7:30), with the Johnny Pesky ceremony at 1:15.

***

Sidney Ponson (5.21, 83 ERA+) / Daisuke Matsuzaka (2.80, 163 ERA+)

In his last five starts -- 19 innings -- Ponson has allowed 35 hits, 11 walks and 25 runs. Batters are teeing off on him to the tune of a 1.116 OPS (.407/.465/.651).

Mike Lowell:

The swing doesn't hurt me. It's the non-swing. It's when I kind of start and stop, you recognize it's not a strike so you take the pitch. That's when I feel it grab. ... As I start to rotate my hips, it just catches. There's a sharp pain. ... I don't know how to avoid that. I can't go into the pitch predetermined I'm taking this one and I'm swinging at the other one.

Francona said J.D. Drew went for some more tests on Friday

to rule out any orthopedic problems. All the blood work and scans came back reassuring. Trying to exhaust every possibility, just do our homework, and everything's come back very reassuring.

Coco Crisp has not played since Tuesday because he got an injection in his left foot a few days ago and the foot has been tender.

G160: Yankees 19, Red Sox 8

Yankees - 133 510 312 - 19  20  0
Red Sox - 300 110 003 -  8  13  1

Ouch. There were some bright spots in this one, though.

Jacoby Ellsbury and Kevin Youkilis both homered in the first inning. Ellsbury went 4-for-5 and stole his 50th base of the season -- only the third player in Red Sox history to do so.

Gil Velazquez and George Kottaras both got their first major league hit tonight. Velaquez hit an RBI single off the left field wall in the fourth and Kottaras smacked an opposite field double into the left field corner in the fifth.

And Chris Smith put a zero on the board in the top of the sixth, denying New York the chance at becoming the first team in American League history to score in all nine innings of a game.

***

Game back on at 11:05.

***

Another rain delay (tarp out at 10:26) in the top of the 5th, no outs for New York.

Tampa Bay lost (again!) to Detroit, 6-4, but if the Red Sox cannot come back in this one, the Rays will clinch the East tonight. Perhaps this debacle will be washed away.

***

After a rain delay of about 90 minutes, the game is on. David Pauley has replaced Dice as the Boston starter.

***

Alfredo Aceves (1.38, 311 ERA+) / Daisuke Matsuzaka (2.80, 163 ERA+)

While the Red Sox are preparing for both scenarios, the general feeling in the front office is that the Angels will choose the ALDS schedule that begins on Wednesday rather than Thursday, allowing both clubs to use only three starting pitchers. As the Globe notes:

Such a scenario defies the popular theory that the Angels would opt to start Thursday, thereby preventing the Sox from using Josh Beckett and Jon Lester twice. ...

The Angels have their reasons for starting Wednesday. Los Angeles would be able to go with a three-man rotation of John Lackey, Ervin Santana, and Joe Saunders, bypassing Jon Garland and Jered Weaver.

Terry Francona plans to use Mike Lowell at DH tonight and have him play third base on Sunday.

In the case of a playoff emergency, the Sox purchased the contract of Gil Velazquez, 28. And he made his major league debut last night, after 11 years and nearly 1,000 minor league games.

With three games remaining, Dustin Pedroia has 211 hits, good for 5th place on Boston's all-time single-season list. He needs two more to tie Jim Rice's 1978 total of 213. Tops on the list? Wade Boggs, with 240 in 1985 (which included a team-record 187 singles). Pedroia is the first Red Sox player to get 200 hits in a season in ten years (Mo Vaughn: 205, in 1998).

Jacoby Ellsbury has a career-high 16-game hitting streak (25-for-72, .347).

***

For the Yankees, Aceves, a 25-year-old RHP, has made two relief appearances and three starts (log) since joining the Yankees at the end of August: 26 IP, 20 H, 6 BB, 15 K. Was Watching: "I've seen his height listed as low as 5′ 10″ and as high as 6′ 1″ - and his weight is between 150 and 176 pounds ..." And BR and MLB list him at 6-3, 220!

Other news from New York is that Mariano Rivera left the team and went back to New York for a precautionary MRI. However, Joe Girardi lied to the media about this before the game and then stubbornly stuck to his bogus story even after various writers said they had gotten the truth from Brian Cashman. ... Peter Abraham (LoHud) has audio: "It has gotten to the point where team officials now apologize to reporters for the manager's actions. Nobody is sure why he does it because he gets caught every time."

And the New York Times mentions Hank Steinbrenner's "mission of contributing imbecility to every publication that will have him". Perfect!

***

Rays/Tigers at 7

East                     Magic #
Rays       96  63   ---
Red Sox    94  65   2.0     1