The average number of wins in the simulations for four of the five AL East team are remarkably similar - only three wins separate the first and fourth place finishers! - as shown on BP's Playoff Odds chart:
Showing posts with label predictions and projections 2016. Show all posts
Showing posts with label predictions and projections 2016. Show all posts
April 2, 2016
BP: Red Sox Should Win Between 55 and 115 Games
Baseball Prospectus ran 1,000,000 simulations of the 2016 season. The worst Red Sox team went 55-107 and the best team had a 115-47 record. So anything between 55 and 115 wins is within the realm of probability.
The average number of wins in the simulations for four of the five AL East team are remarkably similar - only three wins separate the first and fourth place finishers! - as shown on BP's Playoff Odds chart:
The average number of wins in the simulations for four of the five AL East team are remarkably similar - only three wins separate the first and fourth place finishers! - as shown on BP's Playoff Odds chart:
ESPN Posts 2016 Predictions
31 staffers at ESPN offered their predictions for 2016:
Also: Keith Law:AL East Blue Jays 19 Red Sox 8 Rays 2 Yankees 2 Orioles 0 AL Pennant Astros 9 Blue Jays 8 Royals 8 Red Sox 4 Cleveland 1 Rangers 1 NL Pennant Cubs 19 Giants 6 Nationals 3 Mets 3 World Series Cubs 14 Blue Jays 4 Royals 4 Astros 3 Mets 2 Giants 2 Rangers 1 Nationals 1
I see four flawed contenders [in the AL East], and a team with its engine stuck in reverse. The Red Sox strike me as the least flawed contender, a team with a potential 850-run offense and enough improvement in run prevention to sneak away with the division. I feel as if their defense is particularly underrated, but getting Hanley Ramirez out of left field and Pablo Sandoval entirely off the field helps, while on some nights they'll run out plus defenders at four or five spots.
AL East Projected Standings Red Sox 90-72 Blue Jays 87-75 Rays 83-79 Yankees 83-79 Orioles 74-88
April 1, 2016
Prediction Grab Bag: SoSH, Herald, Globe, WEEI, USAToday, CBS, The Guardian
Updated to include the Globe's picks
Boston Herald
Jason Mastrodonato: 89-73, AL Wild Card.
The Red Sox can’t get any worse production out of left field, first base and third base than they did last year. The additions of David Price and Craig Kimbrel add a half-dozen wins to the projection.
Michael Silverman: 83-79, 3rd place, miss playoffs
There’s no way (right?) they finish in last place once more but it’s real difficult to look at their lack of slam-dunk rotation depth and believe it’s good enough to lead them into October baseball.
Ron Borges: 88-74, AL Wild Card
The pitching comes through better than expected but the batting order has more holes than we expected.
Steve Buckley: 82-80, miss playoffs
Price is right. The rest of the rotation isn’t.
Evan Drellich: 90-72, Win AL East
The division will be close, but with the team in contention from the get-go and a go-for it mindset, a starting pitcher pick-up at the deadline gives Sox a needed boost.
Boston Globe
Peter Abraham
AL East: Blue Jays — Marcus Stroman will offset the departures of David Price and Mark Buehrle.
AL Wild Card: Royals and Astros — The defending champions are still potent and Houston has the transcendent Carlos Correa.
ALCS: Astros over the Blue Jays — Houston wins its first pennant since 2005, takes out Toronto in six games.
World Series: Cubs over Astros in five games: An outraged President Trump refuses to invite the Ricketts family to the White House.
AL Cy Young: David Price, Red Sox — The Sox fall short of the postseason, but at least they have a legitimate ace again.
Nick Cafardo
AL East: Blue Jays — Marcus Stroman becomes an ace, Aaron Sanchez has breakout season and offense continues to crush.
AL Wild Card: Yankees and Astros — The Yankees have enough in their starting rotation to get them to their fantasy bullpen, and the Astros' younger players get better.
ALCS: Rangers over Tigers — Rangers' lineup comes up big vs. Tigers' pitching.
World Series: Cubs over Rangers in six — Cubs break 108-year curse with Theo Epstein at the helm.
AL Cy Young: David Price, Red Sox: Every bit as advertised and completely dominant over 33 starts with 20 wins.
Dan Shaughnessy
AL East: Blue Jays — Bat-flipping their way to the World Series.
AL Wild Card: Indians and Red Sox — Tito's Tribe beats Sox in one-game playoff at Fenway.
ALCS: Blue Jays over Astros — A hockey town over a football town.
World Series: Cubs over Blue Jays in seven — Lester MVP. Bob Lobel says, "Why can't we get a pitcher and GM like that?"
AL Cy Young: Marcus Stroman, Blue Jays — The next baseball megastar.
Alex Speier
AL East: Blue Jays — I'm proudly shooting for nine straight years of getting this division wrong.
AL Wild Card: Indians and Red Sox — Cory Snyder and Joe Carter are finally ready to help Cleveland make the leap.
ALCS: Indians and Astros — I was wrong about the Indians last year, and I'll probably be wrong about them this year.
World Series: Nationals over Indians in 6: Bryce Harper will wake up the game.
AL Cy Young: Chris Sale, White Sox — He hasn't given up a homer to a lefty since Sept. 2, 2012.
Chad Finn
AL East: Blue Jays — Donaldson/Bautista/Encarnacion combine to mash 100-plus homers for East beasts.
AL Wild Card: Red Sox and Angels — David Ortiz's storied career gets one more October chapter; Mike Trout locks down another MVP
ALCS: Astros over Blue Jays in 7: Winning AL crown will finally stop us from still thinking of the Astros as an NL team.
World Series: Cubs over Astros in 5 — Hey, Theo Epstein does know a thing or two on how to properly end a curse.
AL Cy Young: Marcus Stroman, Blue Jays — 24-year-old righthander and former David Price understudy is 15-6 with 3.31 ERA in young career.
Christopher L. Gasper
AL East: Yankees — The Empire strikes back with a power bullpen. Chapman, Miller and Betances are a relievers Murderers' Row.
AL Wild Card: Blue Jays and Indians — The Blue Jays bash and bat-flip their way to back-to-back postseasons; the Indians soothe LeBron's departure.
ALCS: Royals over Yankees in 6 — KC wins the battle of the bullpens and radar guns.
World Series: Cubs over Royals in 7 — In Theo I trust.
AL Cy Young: Chris Archer, Rays — One of David Price's prized apprentices masters AL batters.
Sons of Sam Horn
WEEI
Rob Bradford and John Tomase both predict the Red Sox to finish third, behind the Blue Jays and Yankees.
USAToday
CBS Sports
The Guardian (UK)
Boston Herald
Jason Mastrodonato: 89-73, AL Wild Card.
The Red Sox can’t get any worse production out of left field, first base and third base than they did last year. The additions of David Price and Craig Kimbrel add a half-dozen wins to the projection.
Michael Silverman: 83-79, 3rd place, miss playoffs
There’s no way (right?) they finish in last place once more but it’s real difficult to look at their lack of slam-dunk rotation depth and believe it’s good enough to lead them into October baseball.
Ron Borges: 88-74, AL Wild Card
The pitching comes through better than expected but the batting order has more holes than we expected.
Steve Buckley: 82-80, miss playoffs
Price is right. The rest of the rotation isn’t.
Evan Drellich: 90-72, Win AL East
The division will be close, but with the team in contention from the get-go and a go-for it mindset, a starting pitcher pick-up at the deadline gives Sox a needed boost.
Boston Globe
Peter Abraham
AL East: Blue Jays — Marcus Stroman will offset the departures of David Price and Mark Buehrle.
AL Wild Card: Royals and Astros — The defending champions are still potent and Houston has the transcendent Carlos Correa.
ALCS: Astros over the Blue Jays — Houston wins its first pennant since 2005, takes out Toronto in six games.
World Series: Cubs over Astros in five games: An outraged President Trump refuses to invite the Ricketts family to the White House.
AL Cy Young: David Price, Red Sox — The Sox fall short of the postseason, but at least they have a legitimate ace again.
Nick Cafardo
AL East: Blue Jays — Marcus Stroman becomes an ace, Aaron Sanchez has breakout season and offense continues to crush.
AL Wild Card: Yankees and Astros — The Yankees have enough in their starting rotation to get them to their fantasy bullpen, and the Astros' younger players get better.
ALCS: Rangers over Tigers — Rangers' lineup comes up big vs. Tigers' pitching.
World Series: Cubs over Rangers in six — Cubs break 108-year curse with Theo Epstein at the helm.
AL Cy Young: David Price, Red Sox: Every bit as advertised and completely dominant over 33 starts with 20 wins.
Dan Shaughnessy
AL East: Blue Jays — Bat-flipping their way to the World Series.
AL Wild Card: Indians and Red Sox — Tito's Tribe beats Sox in one-game playoff at Fenway.
ALCS: Blue Jays over Astros — A hockey town over a football town.
World Series: Cubs over Blue Jays in seven — Lester MVP. Bob Lobel says, "Why can't we get a pitcher and GM like that?"
AL Cy Young: Marcus Stroman, Blue Jays — The next baseball megastar.
Alex Speier
AL East: Blue Jays — I'm proudly shooting for nine straight years of getting this division wrong.
AL Wild Card: Indians and Red Sox — Cory Snyder and Joe Carter are finally ready to help Cleveland make the leap.
ALCS: Indians and Astros — I was wrong about the Indians last year, and I'll probably be wrong about them this year.
World Series: Nationals over Indians in 6: Bryce Harper will wake up the game.
AL Cy Young: Chris Sale, White Sox — He hasn't given up a homer to a lefty since Sept. 2, 2012.
Chad Finn
AL East: Blue Jays — Donaldson/Bautista/Encarnacion combine to mash 100-plus homers for East beasts.
AL Wild Card: Red Sox and Angels — David Ortiz's storied career gets one more October chapter; Mike Trout locks down another MVP
ALCS: Astros over Blue Jays in 7: Winning AL crown will finally stop us from still thinking of the Astros as an NL team.
World Series: Cubs over Astros in 5 — Hey, Theo Epstein does know a thing or two on how to properly end a curse.
AL Cy Young: Marcus Stroman, Blue Jays — 24-year-old righthander and former David Price understudy is 15-6 with 3.31 ERA in young career.
Christopher L. Gasper
AL East: Yankees — The Empire strikes back with a power bullpen. Chapman, Miller and Betances are a relievers Murderers' Row.
AL Wild Card: Blue Jays and Indians — The Blue Jays bash and bat-flip their way to back-to-back postseasons; the Indians soothe LeBron's departure.
ALCS: Royals over Yankees in 6 — KC wins the battle of the bullpens and radar guns.
World Series: Cubs over Royals in 7 — In Theo I trust.
AL Cy Young: Chris Archer, Rays — One of David Price's prized apprentices masters AL batters.
Sons of Sam Horn
WEEI
Rob Bradford and John Tomase both predict the Red Sox to finish third, behind the Blue Jays and Yankees.
USAToday
CBS Sports
The Guardian (UK)
AL East championTwo of the writers pick Boston to lose in the ALCS.
DL: David Price is in Boston, but now the Jays have a healthy Marcus Stroman. They also have power, pen, and, now, real dirt base paths! So it seems like Toronto, but this division is a basket case. Can I switch in July?
DG: The Blue Jays went for it all last year and came up short, but they still have a potent lineup in place that could be the difference in a competitive division.
LC: Picking up David Price was huge. Craig Kimbrell is an overpowering closer who will thrive in Boston. The lineup remains strong, Mookie Betts will finally break out and the Red Sox will benefit from seeing the Good Hanley Ramirez.
JB: The Boston Red Sox. Turns out hiring a GM who understands you're a big market team and acts like it turns a roster around quick.
February 17, 2016
Baseball Prospectus Projected 2016 Standings
Baseball Prospectus' projected (PECOTA-based) 2016 standings.
W L RS RA Rays 91 71 713 619 Red Sox 88 74 735 671 Blue Jays 86 76 765 711 Yankees 85 77 725 686 Orioles 72 90 697 786
February 2, 2016
The Sporting News Predicts Red Sox World Championship
Punxsutawney Phil can go phuck himself. The true sign of spring is the arrival on newsstands of the pre-season baseball annuals. And this year, my favourite annual is The Sporting News, which predicts the Red Sox to beat the San Francisco Giants in the World Series. Two other magazines tab Boston as one of the wild card teams. (None of the three annuals pick the Yankees to do anything.)
The Sporting News
The Sporting News
After consecutive last-place finishes, new Boston exec Dave Dombrowski has added hope with a bolstered rotation and bullpen. The Sox have the talent to go worst-to-first.Athlon
Scout's View: David Price changes everything. He takes pressure off [Clay Buchholz], he takes the pressure off the young lefty [Eduardo Rodriguez] and Joe Kelly. They don't have to do too much. It takes pressure off their manager. John Farrell now has a very deep bullpen, too. That pitching has stabilized itself. They have a lot of good kids that can play like Mookie [Betts] and [Xander] Bogaerts and [Jackie] Bradley to go with Dustin Pedroia and [David] Ortiz. Now, if they can get Hanley [Ramirez] and Panda [Pablo Sandoval] out of the fat farm and play the way they should, they're dangerous.
Bottom Line: The Red Sox have gone from worst to first before, wining it all in 2013. They have also been champions of the offseason, only to see things fall apart once the games counted. No one in New England is taking a playoff berth for granted, but no one would be surprised if it happens.
AL Divisions: Red Sox, Royals, Rangers, with Cleveland, Astros (WC)
NL Divisions: Mets, Cubs, Giants, with Dodgers, Cardinals (WC)
ALCS: Red Sox over Royals
NLCS: Giants over Cubs
World Series: Red Sox over Giants
MVPs: Trout, Harper
Cy Youngs: Archer, Kershaw
Scouting Report: They signed David Price when they hired Dave Dombrowski, and it's understandable. They overpaid for him and Craig Kimbrel, but it's what they had to do, and they didn't take anything away from their major league team to get them. They're the best team in that division, for me, but they still need a guy to start Game 2 of a playoff series. They're going to get more from Pablo Sandoval - they can't get much worse - and while Hanley Ramirez will probably be a poor first baseman, he'd going to bring value with his bat. Rusney Castillo doesn't have to be a great player, like Mookie Betts already is, and Chris Young is a good fourth outfielder who can play half the time, if needed. They can expect their young core - Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Blake Swihart and Jackie Bradley Jr. - to keep getting batter, and Dustin Pedroia is still an All-Star-caliber second baseman. After a long offseason, I expect him to be healthy and productive again.Lindy's
Final Analysis: The Red Sox have finished last in three of the last four seasons, so naturally Las Vegas gives them the third-highest odds to win the World Series in 2016. That sounds optimistic, given a careful examination of the roster, but stranger things have happened. If Bogaerts and Betts develop into All-Stars and Ortiz digs deep to deliver one final monster season before walking into the sunset, the Red Sox could be ready to roll on offense. Starting pitching remains a concern, but count on this much - they'll finish closer to first than last.
AL East: Blue Jays, Red Sox, Yankees, Orioles, Rays
AL Divisions: Blue Jays, Royals, Rangers with Red Sox, Astros (WC)
NL Divisions: Mets, Cubs, Giants with Nationals, Diamondbacks (WC)
ALCS: Blue Jays over Royals
NLCS: Giants over Cubs
World Series: Blue Jays over Giants
MVPs: Trout (with Betts 9th), Harper
Cy Youngs: Price, Kershaw
The Sox had a busy winter, reeling in David Price and one of the game's best closers, Craig Kimbrel, following a last-place finish in 2015. If Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval start earning their free-agent riches, Boston could turn it around quickly.
Scout's Take: Things are changing with Dombrowski in charge. He's a hard guy to work for and can be hard on his guys. But he gets things done. Dombrowski likes to trade prospects for proven guys. He can do a lot more of that with this club than in Detroit. They've got a great system, full of players. ... They're going to be stuck with two mistakes by Cherington: Ramirez and Sandoval. They're going to play Ramirez at first - that'll be a disaster. He's lost his skills, and he's a bad guy, too. An infield with Ramirez and Sandoval will be the worst in the majors. The pitchers will lose their minds. ... Their bullpen was terrible last year. It'll be a lot better with Kimbrel and Carson Smith.
AL East: Blue Jays, Red Sox, Yankees, Rays, Orioles
AL Divisions: Blue Jays, Royals, Rangers with Red Sox, Astros (WC)
NL Divisions: Nationals, Pirates, Giants with Cubs, Diamondbacks (WC)
World Series: Blue Jays versus Nationals
MVPs: Correa, Goldschmidt
Cy Youngs: Sale, Scherzer
December 22, 2015
Schoenfield: An Early Look At The 2016 AL East
ESPN's David Schoenfield takes an early look at the American League East - and how the five teams might finish in 2016:
This one's easy: The Red Sox rotation had a 4.39 ERA, better only than the Orioles and Detroit Tigers in the AL. So welcome to Boston, David Price.Projection from FanGraphs:
It's not that simple. Price alone doesn't turn the Red Sox into a playoff team. They'll still need improvement from other guys in the rotation, most notably Rick Porcello, who posted a 4.92 ERA and allowed 25 home runs in 172 innings. The bullpen was just as bad as the rotation, posting a 4.24 ERA, also 13th in the AL. So new president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski traded for closer Craig Kimbrel and setup guy Carson Smith, who had a dominant rookie season for the Mariners. With Kimbrel, Smith and Koji Uehara, the Red Sox could duplicate the late-inning dominance of teams like the Kansas City Royals and Yankees.
(This impact could be overstated, however. The Red Sox's winning percentage when leading after seven and eight innings was actually right at the MLB average. But improved bullpen depth could help facilitate more late-game comebacks.)
On the other side of the ball, the Red Sox saw Mookie Betts emerge as a star. He'll be even better in 2016. After a slow start, rookie catcher Blake Swihart showed promise in the second half, hitting .303/.353/.452. Second-year shortstop Xander Bogaerts hit .320 and is capable of adding some power and OBP to his game. That trio is the new core of the Boston offense. That leaves the veterans: Does David Ortiz have one big season left in him? Will Pablo Sandoval rebound from his minus-0.9-WAR season? Will Hanley Ramirez play first base better than he "played" left field? Is Rusney Castillo actually any good?
The FanGraphs projection system likes the Red Sox as the AL East favorite right now. Of course, the projection systems loved the Red Sox a year ago as well. But with one of the best starters in the game now heading the rotation, a dominant closer and a talented group of youngsters, the Red Sox look like the surest bet to improve in 2016. And maybe the division favorite.
Red Sox 92-70 Yankees 89-73 Blue Jays 87-75 Rays 84-78 Orioles 78-84
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