If You Think the Economy Sucks Now …

… just wait until the Empty Suit Known as Barack Hussein Obama exercises his “mandate” to force the “rich” to pay their “fair share” in higher taxes.

You see, folks, we are a mere 54 days away from total budgetary and economic implosion if the politicians you sent to DC this time around can't reach agreement on taxes before January 1st.  Lacking agreement, each and every one of you is set to pay higher taxes.  Not just Richie Rich.  Each and every one of you.  Oh, the corrupt and biased liberal media never told you that?  So Sorry.

But, of course, we all know it will be avoided because both sides of the "aisle" don't want the "blame" for raising your taxes (unless you are Richie Rich - the aisles are evenly split on that one.)   Negotiations have already begun in the nick of time.

The (R) side of the aisle wants to keep tax rates the same for everybody, and fix the incredibly broken tax code to raise revenue.  But that's a complicated argument.  It was too complicated to pitch to you in a ridiculously long and grueling campaign.  What chance do they have to successfully make the pitch to you in the next 54 days?  Answer: None. Zero. Nada.  And, beside, it's not only too complicated to sell to you in 54 days - it's too complicated for anyone to figure out in 54 days.

The (D) side of the aisle wants you to believe all will be well if only gub'ment just squeezes more out of Richie Rich.  They will win because you gave a "mandate" to the Empty Suit Known as Barack Hussein Obama.  And because it's simple to sell and simple to implement.

You may then be surprised to find out soaking Richie Richie mathematically does next to zero, nada, nothing to put the slightest scratch into the national debt.  It's just how the math works, folks - like trying to soak up the Atlantic Ocean with a beach towel.

You may then be further surprised to find out soaking Richie Rich has a lot to do with putting a dagger through the heart of the slowest economic "recovery" since the Great Depression.  Especially if the negotiations yield a definition of "Richie Rich" that sweeps up a lot of small businesses, still temporarily the people who provide the most jobs in this country (that is, until the Empty Suit Known as Barack Hussein Obama finishes making gub'ment the largest employer).  Small businesses will almost certainly be hammered by the end state of the negotiations, because it's too complicated to figure out how to avoid in the next 54 days.

Not to mention the economy crushing regulations in the name of a pseudo-scientific hoax, that will be released now that  the Empty Suit Known as Barack Hussein Obama is free and clear.

==

So - under the heading of "be careful what you ask for, you might get it" - I address the remainder of my comments to those of you who voted for the Empty Suit Known as Barack Hussein Obama, making reference to the exit poll statistics provided by the Common Cents Blog.

If you are among the 55% of women who voted Obama, perhaps because you bought the totally manufactured "War on Women" bullshit narrative (talk about "shovel ready"), don't look over here for sympathy when it gets even harder to put food on your table.

If you are among the 60% of under 30's who voted Obama, and you have big career dreams - good luck with that.  If you you are in this demographic and have recently graduated college or soon will - get in line, kid.

If you are unemployed and any race whatsoever - looking for work ain't gonna get any easier.  Better look into that Food Stamp thing.  You illegals should look into the meaning of "self-deportation" - the number of families that can afford your help will be declining.

If you are earning under 50 grand annually, and were hoping for some of that good old American "upward mobility" - it will become more scarce.

If you are in the majority of Jews and Catholics who voted Obama - don't look over here for explanations when you find out trotting out Sandra Fluke as the symbol of ObamaCare mandated birth control even for religious institutions wasn't about "women" - it was about asserting the supremacy of the state over the church.  (Yes, I know, not "economic" - but it needs to be said in support of the First Amendment)

If you are among the 75% of voters who went for Obama because you said your top priority was "health care" - spare me your puzzlement when health care becomes even more expensive and less accessible.

All I can say is thank God for the 22nd Amendment.  At least the republic will only be dragged through two terms of this Keynesian, statist, nonsense - unlike under FDR, the power mad progressive who inspired the Amendment.

Update 11/9/12

And so it begins ...

Update 11/12/12

And awaaaaay we go!

Update #2 11/12/12

A policy of racial quotas will have the predictable impact: societal mediocracy by policy idiocracy, and an overall downward pressure on economic growth. Look up "Community Reinvestment Act" and "housing bubble" on your Google machines, kiddies.

Empty Suit Sets Economic Record

Barack Hussein Obama entered the record books last week by completing the longest string of months with unemployment above 8% since the Great Depression - 43 consecutive months. It became official when the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the September 2012 figure - 7.8%.

The 7.8% number - a three tenths of one percent drop from the August number (which is considered huge) - left every serious observer on Planet Earth scratching his or her head. The other survey everyone always references - the weekly report of "jobs added or lost" has been weak, on a generally downward trajectory throughout 2012, and a steep downward trajectory for the entire previous quarter.

How to reconcile the two contradictory reports? How is it "unemployment" can drop, when weekly jobs added is stuck in the low 100 thousands, and declining, when everybody knows you need a sustained rate of 200 thousand a month just to keep up with new entrants to the labor pool? (Recent college graduates worth their sheepskin should now be starting to grasp why they have no job offers)

Some fingered statistical survey anomalies. "Fox All-Star" Stephen Hayes was among them. He warned the administration to be wary of a swing in the opposite direction next month - right before the election - as the coming statistical correction.

This explanation for the September number could be on target - but the warning for the October number is dead wrong. My Google machine tells me Mr. Hayes graduated from the Columbia school of Journalism. I'm guessing he didn't darken the hallways of the math department much. Let me tell you how probability and statistics works, Mr. Hayes. Each roll of the dice is completely independent. Roll of the dice N has no impact whatsoever on roll of the dice N+1. If your line of reasoning were accurate, you would have never heard from me on this blog. I would be living in Vegas making money hand over fist with a simple system of extrapolation.

Some harbor conspiracy theories explaining the 7.8% number was cooked. On the same Fox panel, Charles Krauthammer poo-pooed such as crazy talk. It's not as if they have a daily conference call, or anything. Yeah, sure, maybe they used to, but they've learned their lesson, you know.

Krauthammer is half-right. They couldn't get away with a massive conspiracy. Too big a surface for leaks and betrayals. But they don't need a massive conspiracy. The BLS reports to Secretary of Labor Hilda I. Solis. She's as big a Leftie activist and agitator as Obama himself, as prone as they all are to doing what it takes to stay in power, without reference to conventional ethics, and gives me no reason to give her the benefit of the doubt on the anything as simple as even the time of day. Solis and Obama don't need a daily conference call. They've been independently on the same page from the time each independently entered Team Leftie's ideological zombie army.

That said, I'm not with the conspiracy theory crowd. The gub'ment produces numbers, these numbers have varying degrees of accuracy, and armies of ideological zombies work day and night to spin them for your consumption. That's it.

So, how do we reconcile these numbers - the 7.8% and the 114,000? Simple. Basically, we're looking at a division problem with a numerator and denominator. The numerator is the number of people without a job who are actively looking for one, the denominator is those people plus those who have a job (the labor pool). This division yields a ratio that can be expressed as a percentage. Those who have become discouraged and have stopped looking for work are not counted as part of the "labor pool." While they are still people with economic needs, they are essentially invisible to gub'ment accounting.

So, what would be the statistical indicators of growth in this invisible population? Answer: no growth or even declines in the percentage of the population participating in the "labor pool" (blue line, next chart).

No wonder he's the Food Stamp President.

A vote to for Obama is a vote to be thrown into those old grainy black and white photos, from the old Soviet Union, of people standing in line all day for a loaf of bread.

Update 10/9/12

Yesterday, Hack Wilson posted six charts making the obvious case Obama-Biden has been one big three letter word: F-A-I-L. My favorite insight is the inverse correlation between food prices and median household income. Still got white guilt?

Update 10/11/12

Interesting report from the field, supporting the theory the books are being cooked.

Update 10/19/12

A likely suspect emerges to fit into the conspiracy theory thing.

Demotapalooza

A few demotivational posters I was able to throw together courtesy of diy.despair.com ...

(image: Bearing Drift)
Yeah, what we need is more of these people literally telling us what to eat.

(image: Political Tea Leaves)
Another reminder why the standard margin of electoral fraud is +3D.

(image: Mother Jones)
The Dhimmi-In-Chief makes his choice.

(image: Fox Business)
The Empty Suit has a record now. It sucks.

(image: Salem News)
The Empty Suit has another record. It's pure chaos.

What the hell were these hacks thinking when they threw a reliable ally under the bus to the advantage the Muslim Brotherhood?(image: Big Peace)

Still wondering why the Redistributionist-In-Chief wants me to pay for Sandra Fluke's contraceptives, yet he can't spare a thousand bucks for his own blood brother.(image: Tracy's Right)



And I haven't even gotten to media bias, Fast and Furious, the pathetic irresponsibility that is failing to pass a budget three years running, the dangerous irresponsibility of prioritizing Letterman and the View above the Israeli PM and daily intel briefings, Taxmageddon, Sequester, 'Flexibility' with Russia, ObamaCare aka the biggest tax hike in history, direct responsibility for 60% of all-time deficit spending, ...

“The Business of America is Business"

I can tell I would have enjoyed the company of the 30th President of the United States – Calvin Coolidge - if only because Cool Cal was universally recognized as a man of few words.

For example, there is this story I heard on evil AM band talk radio, related to me long ago by radio man (and former congressman and actor) Fred “Gopher” Grandy. Coolidge was at a formal dinner. Some random grande dame of Washington society walked up to him and said she had bet her husband she could get him to say more than two words. Coolidge responded with “you lose.” True story? Who knows? But who can doubt the word of a man with a resume that includes not only writing legislation, but also acting as a man wearing booty shorts and mixing drinks for clueless grande dames on a television show featuring a cruise ship? And, besides, imagine the possibilities if Cool Cal was our President in the Twitter age. The White House tweets would not only be far better, but actually from the man’s own hand, no doubt.

Yes, I can see Cool Cal would have been a good cell mate for me. It would have been … well, mostly quiet. And when he did open his mouth, I could have been certain it was worth paying attention too. In other words, it would be the total opposite experience of being around the standard issue 24x7 grievance politics ranting you get from the average progressive lib. (LAS to progressives: “Yes, yes, I get it. Everybody who disagrees with you is an evil racist. I’m still not going on your march to scream at the Koch brothers’ second cousin twice removed, and I’m definitely not giving you money to save the snail darter – whatever the hell that is. Isn’t that what we have the EPA for anyway? What’s their G-D budget – 2 gazillion? Shut up already! And why are you following me into the bathroom still yammering about contraceptives?“)

==

But I digress. The reason Cool Cal came to mind for LAS was a quote often attributed to him – “the business of America is business.” It came to me while I was contemplating how to treat the Empty Suit Known as Barack Hussein Obama stepping on his crank with the “you didn’t build that” gaffe.

For you see, despite the extraordinary spectacle of a sitting US President pleading the old “out of context” dodge, Obama’s small business smear betrays the core of his Leftist ideology – i.e. “the business of America is to feed the insatiable maw of the big government nanny state.”

Barack Hussein Obama sincerely believes, as all do on the political Left, that prosperity is created from the top-down, by big government experts making monolithic decisions from a centralized command and control apparatus.

The competing view, which carries the label “conservative” in modern times, and which was held by Cool Cal, places far more trust in you, the individual. In this view, prosperity is something that is generated from the bottom-up in a system of free enterprise that grants the freedom to everyone to make rational decisions in his or her own best interests, in accordance with his or her dreams. The government exists solely to soften the edges of the competitive results, to provide a safety net for those who choose poorly or experience the random hand of bad luck.

In this choice election of 2012, I ask you … does anyone really believe there are any truly existentially jagged edges in the modern American economy? An American economy where the so-called “poor” multitudes are said to be experiencing an epidemic of “obesity”? Please. It should be obvious to the most casual observer the government has become so large and overbearing it is well beyond merely providing safety nets … it is well into the Orwellian territory of smothering individual initiative and opportunity.

==

But, I digress (again). For a slightly deeper dive into the theory and underpinnings of the two competing ideologies; you can read my May 11, 2011 post Stuck On Keynesian Stupid. Much like Cool Cal, I don’t like to repeat myself.

However, in that post from nearly fifteen months ago, I did start a little Excel charting database comparing the economic growth results for conservative icon Ronald Reagan versus today’s progressive champion, Mr. Obama. So, allow me to repeat myself.

If this were an MMA fight, it would be Barry tapping out at 0:30 of the second round. But it’s not an MMA fight. It’s an election. Or, as my personal favorite founding father – Alexander Hamilton – is credited with saying: “A nation which can prefer disgrace to danger is prepared for a master, and deserves one.” So, which America do you want?

For you see, the dismal 1.5% growth is Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the most recent quarter isn’t just bad news for Obama’s re-election campaign. It is the inevitable result of his Leftist policies. These policies are precisely why there are more Americans than ever on Food Stamps. Not due to anyone’s “compassion,” but due, rather, to the government leviathan’s need for a client base. Period. End of sentence.

==

Oh, by the way, it seems Cool Cal has been misquoted. (Gee, imagine that). This historian clarifies:

The real statement comes from a speech by Calvin Coolidge called "The Press Under a Free Government" which was given before the American Society of Newspaper Editors in Washington, D.C. on January 17, 1925. The quote is really: "After all, the chief business of the American people is business." However, Coolidge goes on to say that, "Of course the accumulation of wealth cannot be justified as the chief end of existence."
…
His last paragraph in the speech shows what he really believes motivate Americans: "We make no concealment of the fact that we want wealth, but there are many other things that we want very much more. We want peace and honor, and that charity which is so strong an element of all civilization. The chief ideal of the American people is idealism. I cannot repeat too often that America is a nation of idealists. That is the only motive to which they ever give any strong and lasting reaction."

Now, that’s “compassionate conservatism.” If only we could find a candidate to articulate it. Mittens? Over to you.

Weekly Status Report

Astute readers of this blog have surely noticed the rate of postings here has dramatically declined during this month of June 2012.  There are several factors at play.

First, there is the professional dimension.  I have been nominated by my boss for two project rescues in a row.  I’ve been doing some big cat herding lately for pay, which means the pro bono blogging needed to take a back seat.

The first rescue is a classic case of a junior Project Manager (the one I replaced) following the form of the administrative process and exercising zero leadership.  Throw in a notoriously difficult executive stakeholder he lacked the chops to go toe-to-toe with, and overworked developers hiding under their desks as a survival response … and people were beginning to notice he couldn’t even baseline a schedule anybody could trust.  The schedule is now base-lined and under my change management control.  The executive stakeholder is sure to continue to be a pain in the a$$ - it’s who she is - but we understand each other now.  I have the attention of the developers, and visible work product is now being created. 

The most interesting relationship on this one looks like it will be with the customer relationship manager.  She’s one of those high-strung obsessive compulsives who likes to tell people what to do in minute detail.  For example, on Friday I had no choice but to put an end to an extended email thread with this: “How many ways are there to say something was written, will be reviewed, and then approved?  Point of diminishing returns reached. J.”  We’re working together as a team just fine so far.

The root cause for the second rescue is the complete opposite.  It was driven into the ground by a know-it-all senior engineer that communicated nothing to no one before unveiling what she assumed was a production ready system to the entire enterprise.  Needless to say … a highly visible crash and burn was the result.  I had the kickoff meeting for the restart this past Friday, to assert my dominance over a managed iterative delivery process.  The key stakeholders are meeting with me on Monday to elaborate the scope for delivery iteration 1.

The interesting twist on this one is my boss is a key stakeholder, another is his political rival, who oversaw the disaster, and the executive stakeholder is boss to both of them.  Should be loads of fun.

==

My personal life has also required a good deal of attention to detail lately.  This is not the space to go into further detail. 

So, that’s it … the report from the brick and mortar world; the oxygen, carbon dioxide, and H2O world; explaining the blog’s diminished pace for delivering the conservative rants my loyal readership has enjoyed since December 2009.

==

But, even with these real world considerations, the plain  fact is the need for this blog’s mission – “Because the only good Progressive is a failed Progressive” – is disappearing before our very eyes.  By this standard, the Empty Suit Known as Barack Hussein Obama is on a rocket slide toward becoming the best Progressive ever.

The economy still sucks and even gives signs of turning downward again.  This condition is due to the Progressive and Keynesian policy program inflicted upon the republic by the Alinskyite Socialist in the White House:  tax, spend, borrow, and zealously regulate.  When these policies are reversed, by his removal from office, an economic boom will be touched off as trillions of spooked investment dollars currently on the sidelines come roaring back into the economy at large.

Iran’s nuclear weapons program continues apace, due to Barry’s typically defeatist and inert Progressive approach to foreign affairs.  Lucky for western civilization Israel is under management that has no delusions about the need to defend itself.  If and when Israel does what it needs to do, this will not be good political news for the Empty Suit that Began His Worldwide Apology Tour with His Islamic Appeasement Speech in Cairo.

Speaking of Cairo, and naïve Progressive notions about the world at large, the so-called Egyptian ‘Arab Spring’ has resulted in the election of a President beholden to the Muslim Brotherhood (MB).  That’s not the Islamic Shriners, by the way … more like the Islamic MS13.  IMHO, it is fortunate for western civilization that the professional Egyptian Army, very Americanized due to close military-to-military relations for decades, has assumed the powers of the dissolved parliament that was also MB dominated after popular elections.  If the MB wins this power struggle with the Army brass, Egypt’s peace treaty with Israel will be worthless, and there will likely be war in the Sinai desert.  We need new management in DC willing to back the Egyptian Army for the cause of peace.

Returning back to the domestic scene, the #OccupyWhatever mob, behind whom Barry foolishly threw his prestige and sympathy, has reached the stage of terminal irrelevance.  Despite the corrupt and biased liberal media’s best efforts, the #OccupyWhatever mob shall be accurately recorded by history as not much more than a garden variety youth gang crime wave.  Unofficially funded by the Democrat party, that is. 

==

Well, you get the picture … Jimmy Carter writ large, for those of you old enough to remember that national disaster - with a side of Saul Alinksy for an extra kick.  Botton line: there is not a snowball’s chance in hell Barry gets re-elected.  Part 26 of the “Newton’s Three Law’s” series will explain further.  LAS has been collecting links to collate into Part 26.  It’s not hard.  All I have to do is browse my way down my blog roll and the myriad of epic failures attributable to the Progressive in the White House jump out at me, as does the growing awareness of the American public, despite the mass hoodwinking being attempted by the corrupt and biased liberal media.

I twice abandoned this month a Jack Wiley Dithers piece, lacking the capacity to fully draft and edit it.  Earlier in the month, when the Campaigner-In-Chief was jetting off on Air Force One to west coast fundraisers while ignoring the D-Day anniversary, I had an idea for a desperate private campaign meeting on the airplane captured by a JWD operative … a flight attendant plant brought on to the JWD payroll for her … ahem .. unique assets.  Later in the month the idea morphed into a long string of desperate campaign conservations captured by a recording device injected into Barry’s favorite basketball … delayed by tedious editing required to remove all the background noise … you know, with all the dribbling.

Try to hang on a little while longer patriots, adult supervision will be coming back to DC soon.

Update 6/27/2012

The old conservative standby, American Spectator, has an excellent blog posting today fleshing out the adult view of conditions in Egypt.

An Intersection ...

So, I was rambling down the Schieffer Blog Roll as I sometimes do, and I came across the Backyard Conservative possibly predicting negative job growth in the June report.

Holy Instant Chaos, Batman!

At the very same moment, my personal favorite cover of Dylan's 'Knockin' On Heaven's Door' - Zevon's - was being piped into my ears by my Pandora radio feed.

It fit for me. Just for today.



Update 6/20/12

Saving today's "Post By Somebody Else" feature for the historical archive ...

A Post By Someone Else, Randomly Selected By Your Humble Editor ...



Is the US bleeding jobs again?
Rick Moran

Bottom line: "The weakness in this report, particularly in the job openings figure, serves as a reminder that the labor market remains far from healthy."

Recall that net new job growth was 77,000 in April and 69,000 in May. But without private sector gains, those numbers would be negative. So if private-sector job growth is weakening, as the JOLT report suggests, not only might those April and May numbers be revised lower, but June might come in negative. (Oh, and don't forget the rise in jobless claims.)

Not only would that news be bad for U.S. workers, but it would be a political bombshell that would dominate the economic narrative for the next month.

The whole enchilada ...

LAS comment: If official jobs reports go negative, you ain't seen nothin' yet from the Demagogue-In-Chief. The Empty Suit's desperation to bitterly cling to power will bring mayhem and sorrow to the republic.

==

Throw in Eric "My People" Holder continuing to stonewall Congress on the Fast and Furious scandal (now with Barry sticking his nose into the fray - bad move for the Empty Suit's 'plausibile deniability'), and ObamaCare on the ropes ... and Newton Part 26 is literally writing itself.

Demotivational Demagogue-In-Chief

Really, this is becoming embarrassing for everyone.

Update 6/15/12

The Empty Suit himself, or maybe his teleprompter, or maybe some other dopey hopenchanger campaign proxy on his behalf; sent out a terse fundraising email with *no subject* this morning.

The dead on sign of a campaign in a state of desperation and chaos. It's too bad there's no "recall" key on the Intertubes for this sort of embarrassment.

Stick a Fork in Him, He’s Done

I recall Gorilla Monsoon using this stock phrase a lot in the eighties, when he announced for the World Wrestling Federation (WWF). Monsoon was straight man to Bobby “The Brain” Heenan (aka “The Weasel”) in what was really a LOL wrestling commentary comedy team at the time.

Here’s a taste:



Anyway, Monsoon, while calling a match, would often say ‘stick a fork in him, he’s done!’ – especially when a favored superstar would put away a jobber opponent with a signature move. This phrase was awakened from the deep recesses of my mind when I applied Friday’s dismal jobs report to the electoral future for the Empty Suit Known as Barack Hussein Obama.

I have a mental image of the realities of market economics body splashing into Barry O’Bama from the top rope as Heenan (always favoring the ‘heel’ in ring match ups by design) yells ‘oh no!’ and Monsoon gives us his charcoal grilling related cliché.

==

As we all know, since James “The Crazy Cajun” (that would be his pro wrestling persona) Carville told us in 1992, ‘It’s the economy, stupid’ when it comes to a sitting President’s re-election fortunes.

Well, the economy sucks. It sucks due to Barack Hussein Obama’s policies.

BHO is a dyed-in-the-wool statist who believes the state is the sole source of wisdom, wealth and well-being. His hard Left ideology fundamentally holds individuals, private institutions (i.e. institutions not under the state’s thumb), and the free market in contempt. This ideology assumes all of you are too stupid and too selfish to live a properly ordered life without the state dictating and mandating even the tiniest aspects of how you lead it. Mayor Nanny Bloomberg and his war on soft drinks in servings larger than 16 ounces is but one recent example.

==

BHO took this ideology into office flying high on Icarus-like wings given to him by the republic’s bout with temporary insanity over the empty slogan ‘Hope and Change’. The hype only encouraged the inexperienced narcissist to tack hard left, too close to the sun if you will, and the result is now he is nothing more historically than yet another cautionary tale about the folly of statist economics. He and his corrupt gang of American Progressives join the Soviets, Maoists, Euro Zone Socialists, and others, as prime examples of how command driven cradle-to-grave nanny state economies inevitably spread the most misery to the largest number of people.

==

This blog project set out in December 2009 to make the case against this ideology – you know, “Because the Only Good Progressive is a Failed Progressive.” 245 posts later (counting this one), by far the most read post, according to Google Analytics, was posted August 27, 2011 – “In a Democracy, the People Get the Government They Deserve.” It’s one the better examples of the quirky, intentionally humorous (in a sarcastic way), intentionally Obama-mocking (in an intentionally Alinskyite way), literary style I developed here. I especially like the concluding visual of the ‘Deserve’ post, as a pithy statement of where we’ve come since the last Presidential election. It is an image of somebody else’s bumper sticker with the statement “If you voted for Obama in 2008 to prove you are not racist, you’ll have to vote for someone else in 2012 to prove you’re not an idiot.”

But the best LAS post to explain why the economy still sucks this far into BHO’s so-called recovery is “Stuck on Keynesian Stupid” – posted here on May 11, 2011. The following excerpt is the meat of the matter.

Keynesian economics is a top down, centrally managed, command driven, theory that assumes "experts" can direct capital where it is most needed in a complex market system. Hayek’s competing framework is a bottom up model based on the idea that trusting individuals to make independent decisions in their own self-interest produces the most good for the greatest number of people.

According the macro-economic theories of John Maynard Keynes, the $862 Billion stimulus package that was BHO’s first significant act should have had the US economy humming along beautifully by now. According to the theory, public “experts” pumping huge amounts of public cash into the private economy revitalizes the private economy - and BHO's stimulus was the biggest money pump in human history.

It didn’t work in the Great Depression of the 1930’s, it didn’t work for Japan in the 1990’s, and it’s not working now. The reason it never works is the false premise that government money pumped into the private economy is somehow “new” to the economy. A moment’s reflection exposes the fallaciousness of this premise. Governments only have two ways to raise revenue: (1) print new paper money, which is not actually new wealth, and is therefore inflationary (unless interest rates are artificially held down - which is the building stress fracture in US monetary policy right now), or (2) tax existing wealth out the private economy – which merely redistributes wealth from one set of private hands to another, with overhead built into the transfer to fund the government intervention itself. Governments simply produce no new wealth, ever.

Hayek, on the other hand, based his macroeconomic theories on the far more subtle notion of spontaneous order. That is, for my purposes here, the complex system of exchange between self-interested consumers and producers does something truly magical – it actually creates new wealth in the economic system merely via the exercise of economic activity. Every time a producer supplies a valuable product or service to a consumer, the fair market value the consumer provides back in exchange is economic activity. When government policy encourages and rewards economic activity, over time it results in measurable economic growth, which is good to one degree or another for everyone.

I then went on, in a spasm of pure genius, to set up a direct measurement of real world results comparing and contrasting the economic performance of the Leftist Obama with the man who won the Cold War without firing a shot.

It turns out our 40th President – Ronald Reagan - implemented policies inspired by the Hayek school of thought. It also turns out Mr. Reagan “inherited” a deep recession very similar to the one Mr. Obama told us at the beginning of his term he would fix with his Keynesian Stimulus package.

The Wall Street Journal recently compared the growth in GDP during the two officially measured “recoveries,” and found Messrs. Keynes and Obama to be lagging Messrs. Hayek and Reagan considerably. I took the Journal’s numbers, covering the first seven quarters of official “recovery,” and captured them in a very sophisticated charting system known as MS Excel. Here’s the chart for quarters one through seven. (I think I’ll bring this chart back, updated, each quarter moving forward. The trend will not change, trust me on that.)

==

Here’s the updated chart, folks. Hint: Longer is better.



BHO and His Corrupt Gang of Progressives are Keynesian statists through and through. These plainly measurable results mean nothing to them. They are sooooooooo stuck on Keynesian stupid their only policy proposals seem to be stuff like tax credits for businesses to hire for the mere sake of hiring and “targeted infrastructure” spending.

AYFKM?

The first proposal belies a complete lack of understanding of how the market economy works. There is no tax break big enough to convince any business to hire someone to sit on their hands. Businesses hire when they grow, and a legitimate internal demand for help develops. When such need develops, there is no tax break small enough to deter the hiring transaction. The employee that costs more than he or she creates in revenue has a label – “layoff” - unless they’ve scored a public sector union gub’ment position of course, at least up until now (oblique reference to tomorrow’s historic Wisconsin recall referendum).

The infrastructure thing is so LOL funny it’s sad. The only beneficiaries are a narrow band of specially trained, union connected, construction laborers. Trust me, they are already busy. Every f*ck*in exit on the DC Beltway has a construction project that never seems to finish, snarling traffic like only Communists could. The unions really screwed up when they became a giant pain in the a$$ for everybody else.

One more time, just to make sure it sinks in …



Footnote

The staff cartoonist has been given his assignment.

Family Business

I seem to have a bad case of writer's block lately. Always on the look out for man, woman, or child to exploit (as any conservative would - just as Barry O'Bama); I have commissioned my 13 year old son as staff cartoonist.

Last week he came to me seeking ways to earn money. You see, he is saving up for yet another guitar. He presently has three: a cheap entry level acoustic, a low end affordable electric, and a nice Gibson Les Paul electric. I have advised him to save up for a nice acoustic. I only see him looking online at uber-expensive electric models. Ah, the boundless possibilities wound up in youth.

But I digress. In response to his fund raising need, I told him I'd pay union sweat shop wages for cartoon contributions to the LAS project.

The very same day he came forward with this ...

It was good enough to recognize as a sophisticated commentary on the state of US - Iran relations. So, I changed plans and agreed to pay.

A couple of days ago, he asked for my input on the next cartoon idea. I was mentally drafting a post with the working title 'The Big Lie,' to examine Barry O'Bama picking up the preposterous claim made by some nut job named Rex Nutting that his administration has been a comparative skin-flint with gub'ment spending, and expanding that into the plainly obvious fact he is literally running an anti-capitalism campaign. I came up with the idea of Barry O'Bama as a matador slaying the famous Wall Street bull statue. After I explained what a matador is, and what the statue is, he came forward with the following:

I thought the bull looked more like a giant pig, but I paid up anyway to encourage further growth.

==

'The Big Lie' has evolved into 'The Chameleon-In-Chief' as a vehicle for chronicling Barry O'Bama's capacity to be one thing to one audience and something completely opposite to another audience.

Ooh look, something shiny! (Writer's block.)

How Stupid *is* My Republic?

The April 4th update to my April 3rd post captured a theme that will no doubt make a strong contribution to the theme of this blog going forward.

LAS likes how Limbaugh is explaining Barry's erratic, hyperbolic, and cynical statements of late. It is an open electoral appeal to the truly ignorant and dumb. So, that's it then ... 2012 will demonstrate just how dumb my republic has finally become. Dumb enough to re-elect a failed demagogue? We shall see.

The answer to the question is not at all clear. The Empty Suit Known as Barack Hussein Obama has a truly sorry record … but is also protected by the praetorian guard of sycophantic propagandists known as the mainstream media. As we established at the outset of this blog project, the American electorate naturally identifies with conservative governing policies (hint: generally the opposite of BHO’s), but doesn’t actually realize this mostly because they are largely apolitical (or, more to the point, not informed about political ideologies). The majority of Americans walking into that voting booth on 11/06/12 will be making a choice between two alternatives they have barely spent any time examining, and about which they are mostly misinformed. And the fate of the republic hangs in the balance this time around. Oh joy.

On the plus side, conservative new media has arisen to do the corrupt and biased old media’s job for it, and is arguably at least an even match now in the information wars. The sure evidence is Rush Limbaugh’s increased ratings in the face of Team Leftie’s coordinated ‘Krieg auf Frauen Blitzkrieg” against his advertisers.

==

So, we have a non-ideological voting base, not inclined to do the homework to become informed ideologically, making a choice between an incumbent determined to hide his true hard Left ideology, and a GOP challenger who is inarticulate when talking about the alternative ideology. Furthermore, the incumbent is slavishly propped up by fellow travelers in the old media, and the challenger is promoted by a conservative new media not out of any love for the candidate but out of concern for the future of the republic.

A few top level observations regarding the odds making on this one …

1 - Conservative new media will have to work harder than the sclerotic dinosaurs in the corrupt and biased old media newsrooms. I have no doubt this will happen in an absolute sense … conservative new media is generally younger, smarter, and driven by a patriotic fervor. The opposition is represented by hacks like Chris ‘Tingles’ Matthews. But it remains an open question whether or not conservative new media will outwork the old media hacks by enough to reach enough of those so-called ‘independent’ voters who will remain on the couch with cheeto-stained fingertips until a week or so before the election. We shall see.

2 – Willard ‘Mitt’ Romney cannot make the mistake the GOP Establishment’s 2008 nominee made … the mistake of treating Team Leftie’s quota candidate with kid gloves. Early signs are actually OK on this one, but Romney will need constant prodding from grass roots conservatives to stay on track. At his core, the GOP Establishment nominee is a country club Republican, tailor made to be demonized by the class warfare campaign tactics of BHO’s Billion Dollar Slime Machine. Can Mittens run a campaign slightly outside his comfort zone in order to win it? We shall see.

3 – Can the American electorate direct righteous anger where it belongs? The Alinksy playbook being executed by Team Obama calls for riling up mob passions with the politics of envy, and putting your mob into action on behalf of your agenda - laws and public safety be damned. Occupy Wall Street is a perfect example, though that one doesn’t seem to working out so well for BHO and His Corrupt Gang of Progressives. The TEA Party movement is an example of the opposite – the *Taxed Enough Already* patriots mean what they say, say what they mean, work within the legal bounds of the existing system, and are the very model of law and order at every assembly. But, due to shamelessly biased portrayals by old media, I’ll bet you will get the wrong answer more often than not asking the average citizen which one is responsible for thousands of arrests, dozens of rapes, injury to countless police officers, and an unknown (but huge) cost in property damage. I have no doubt future historians will identify the corruptly biased coverage of these two movements as the real beginning of the end for old media. However, I’m afraid the misrepresentations will live on until the election, which is what matters now. Up against this calculated old media misrepresentation is the reality the electorate is living as a result of BHO’s sorry record. Will the average American voter place more credence in the policy wreckage unfolding before his very eyes, or the Alinskyite narrative spun by BHO with the help of old media? We shall see.

==

However I look at this question, I always come back to realizing the fate of the republic depends on conservative new media communicating Obama’s true record and true policy intentions.

Obama’s foreign policy is a disaster, but I don’t think it will come home to roost before the next election. Of course, I could be wrong … and if it does, it will be ‘game over’ a la Jimmy Carter.

I won’t shy away from covering Barry’s foreign policy wreckage in future posts. Nor will any other opinionator in conservative new media, no doubt. But the point here is the focus for winning this election has to be on opening the citizenry’s eyes to the misery BHO’s policies have directly visited upon them in their lives and neighborhoods.

When Barry runs around falsely claiming the economy is turning around because the officially measured unemployment rate has ‘ticked down’ from 8.2% to 8.1%, we need to relentlessly barrage the republic with the counter-points:

* These are the same geniuses who told us in 2009 their program was necessary to keep unemployment from ever getting above 8%.

* These hacks already hold the record for the longest stretch of official unemployment above 8% since the Great Depression

* The officially measured number goes *down* when a sufficient number of people become so discouraged they leave the work force altogether and are no longer counted as “looking for work,” and that explains the present measurement.

* 115,000 or so jobs created in a given month isn’t a gain against zero, it’s lost ground on needed growth. You need 200,000 per month just to keep up with new labor market entrants (aka graduates), and 400,000 per month (Reagan strength) to get back down to 4-5%.

* At 63.6%, we are at the lowest percentage of working age Americans actually working since 1981. (That would be Carter’s ‘malaise’ economy).

* Household income is down, way down, under Obama.

Oh, just watch this Bloomberg video for a taste of the numbers behind Barry’s economic fail …



==

And a little mockery doesn’t hurt the cause either. The mention of BHO’s latest call for more gub’ment ‘stimulus’ spending in the Bloomberg video brought back to mind this cartoon on the Townhall site, and my comment to it.

==

The bottom line is this: the only answer Team Obama has to the question ‘Are you better off than four years ago?’ is ‘No, but …’ The ‘but’ boils down to whining about their ‘inheritance’ from George Bush. That is something I’m sure will play poorly with the typical American. Americans do not like or respect whiners. Conservative new media must facilitate opportunities for Team Obama to answer this question as often as possible. Lord knows the fawning sycophants at CBS, NBC, and ABC certainly won’t.

And in the process we will discover how stupid my republic actually is.

Footnote

I just realized the finished product looks very little like the notes I was keeping (see footnote to yesterday’s post). That happens sometimes.

Update

Clumsy lead sentence cleanup with strike-through notation. I asked me for a budget to hire copy editors, but me remembered project revenue is stuck at zero.

The Numbers Game (Barry's Iron Triangle of Economic Fail)

I began my April 3rd post with these words: “Numbers are detached, ruthless arbiters.” After spending some time on the merciless spankings Barry’s budget proposals have received on Capitol Hill (97-0 in Dingy Harry Reid’s Senate, 414-0 in the people’s House, and so forth), and on how whole numbers adding up to nine hold the potential to make him look an even bigger fool, I went on to state: “I will save the “iron triangle” of gasoline prices, CPI, and unemployment for future posts.”

Now seems like a good time to take a swing at it.

==

Gasoline prices are affected by a myriad of factors in the global oil commodities market. An awful lot completely beyond Barry’s control, as well as much resulting from Barry’s failed governance, points in only one direction … more and more expensive gasoline at the pump.

Everything … and I mean everything … contributing to the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the official measure of what you, dear reader, need to pony up just to live, is affected by the price of a barrel of oil. The cost incurred by manufacturers and distributors to stock those shelves at the local supermarket is built directly into the price of all that stuff. The manufacturers of this stuff use equipment powered by the products of a barrel of oil, and package the stuff in plastics made directly from the products of a barrel of oil. (side note: LAS often wonders how his life might have been different if he had received the benefit of an investment advisor this erudite … usually when I scan my household taking note of all the plastic crap strewn around it)



Of course, all that supermarket stuff has to get from the manufacturer to the shelves somehow. This is accomplished by planes, trains, and trucks running on a particular product refined directly from a barrel of oil - gasoline. And if you are lucky enough to have a paying job in Barry’s dysconomy, you are likely burning the suddenly more expensive gasoline to commute there and back (whether it’s your personal vehicle or the price of the bus or train ticket passed on to you either directly or thru taxes to cover the losses of the public transit authority). Which, of course, means you have less pay left over to cover the now suddenly more expensive stuff at the supermarket. Feeling squeezed yet?

For the third leg of Barry’s iron triangle of economic fail, I need to refine my original thoughts. “Unemployment” doesn’t quite capture it, because the official measure everyone talks about is so misunderstood. The best thing to do with a number you want to be low, but can go down when things are getting worse (due to discouraged workers leaving the work force), and go up when things are getting better (previously discouraged workers re-entering a growth economy in its early stages) … is to just ignore it as Orwellian.

The third leg of the vise really comes down to economic growth. A growing economy produces the need for hiring. It’s that simple.

The free market naturally operates in boom and bust cycles.

Bust times, left alone, are very efficient at quickly squeezing out bad ideas, business models, et cetera. Gub’ment bailout policies such as TARP and the effective nationalization of the auto industry, and so forth, allow the bad to hang on and survive thru to the next cycle.

Boom times, left alone, allow a fresh wave of ingenuity and innovation to quickly replace losses with new gains produced by better ideas and business models. When gub’ment indulges in the policies of micromanaging businesses – burdensome regulations, actual taxes, the threat of taxes, the threat/promise to add costs nobody understands hidden inside 2700 page bills – the recovery is naturally stunted.

Now you know why Barry is presiding over the slowest technical recovery since the Great Depression. (You might even understand how FDR kept the Great Depression going for so damn long)

So, I’ve chosen to label the third leg “UnGrowth” … as a sarcastic nod to the technical truth Barry’s dysconomy is now in a phase of technically measurable, but anemic, growth – with an invented term inspired by Orwell’s Newspeak language from the novel 1984 (which is a good template for exploring Barry’s totalitarian instincts, but we’ll save that one for another time).

In Barry’s dysconomy of UnGrowth, employers are reluctant to release capital to hire new employees or give raises to existing employees, because the risks outweigh the perceived rewards. So, dear reader, the source of the capital you need to purchase all that suddenly more expensive stuff, burning all that suddenly more expensive fuel to get from point A to B, is artificially blocked by gub’ment policies. That’s the iron triangle of economic scarcity that is squeezing on your head.

==

You can and should blame the policies of the Empty Suit Known as Barack Hussein Obama and his Corrupt Gang of Progressives for this vise pressing on your standard of living.

With regard to energy policy they are out on the trail telling you half-truths and outright lies, because they assume you know nothing of the immutable laws of supply and demand. (Or maybe it’s they who don’t understand these things, as they are acolytes of Marx rather Smith)

Oil is a global commodity. Global demand is going up, up, up – driven by eastern growth economies like China’s and India’s. Somebody has to increase supply to meet the demand, or the price of a barrel has nowhere to go but up.

When Barry tells you the production of supply in this country is up, he is disingenuously telling you a half-truth. Production is up on the private lands owned by those evil capitalists seeing opportunity in the production of supply to meet rising demand. Production is down – way down – on the public lands controlled by BHO and His Corrupt Gang of Progressives. This will remain true as long as they are in office because they are slaves to their Leftist ideology, which informs them throwing public money down the rat hole of an endless parade of ‘green energy’ crony socialist bankruptcies is a smarter investment. When he tells you these 'green' technologies will be ready for economic prime time on a timeline any shorter than decades, he is lying through his teeth and should know it.

And even if they turned on a dime and embraced the ‘Drill Here, Drill Now’ game plan – which they won’t for ideological reasons – they would be trapped by one of their own tired old memes. Every time ‘Drill Here, Drill Now’ has come up over the past several decades the Leftist hue and cry rises … “but it takes years for the product of a new well to reach market.’ Yep, that’s right, Barry – and you only have six months before election day.

But what of the other producers across the globe?

Can Barry’s good friend Hugo Chavez make up the difference? No, he’s too small a producer. George Soros will turn a tidy profit off this arrangement, but it will be a drop in the bucket in the overall global supply & demand balance.

Can the oil producing dictatorships of the Middle East make up the difference? Maybe. Will they? Definitely not. Thanks to Barry and Hillary’s naïve foreign policies, the Mideast is now in a state of chaotic uncertainty. Former ally Egypt is now being run by the Muslim Brotherhood, which has forsaken the peace treaty with Israel, and using the Sinai as a launching pad for terrorist rocket attacks. Even odds Israeli tanks will be rolling through the Sinai before our election day.

And, of course, we know Barry extended his open hand to the Iranian regime, only to have it cut off with extreme prejudice. Odds strongly favor Israel having no choice but to attack Iran’s nuclear weapons program before our election day.

Producers of global commodities really don’t like it when bombs are bursting all around their investments. It makes them nervous and they protect what they can while inevitably producing less.

LAS makes a prediction, knowing the summer driving season stands at our doorstep. Gasoline at the pump will be priced at the psychologically devastating $5 per gallon mark on election day. And there is nothing you can do about it, Barry.

As previously explained, every citizen of the republic will not only feel the pain at the pump, but also the related relentless rise in the price of everything. And Barry’s policies will prevent the economy from growing at anything close to what’s necessary to alleviate all of this. Bad news for your re-election prospects, Barry - very bad news.

==

I think I’ll save the wonky charts for a follow-up post. The weather is beautiful on this Easter Sunday, the Master’s is in the fourth round, on television, and Phil Mickelson is playing in the final group sitting on a pretty good golf number (-8) after three rounds of competition.

Update 8 pm

Well, if it couldn't be Phil's fourth green jacket, I'm glad it could be Bubba's first. The ugly triple bogey on #4 proved the difference. Sitting Presidents with little to no economic growth after adding five trillion bucks to the national debt should take note.

Update 4/9/12

And so it begins ...

The most noteworthy line in this analysis is "the U.S. has half the number of refineries it did in 1980." In view of this, and the Keystone Pipeline story, LAS recommends updating "Drill, Baby, Drill" to "Drill, Distribute, Refine!" Although I can see how that might not be as catchy on a bumper sticker ...

The Numbers Game (Barry’s Number is Up)

Numbers are detached, ruthless arbiters.  LAS knows this from a lifetime of trying to makes ends meet.  It’s no coincidence LAS deeply appreciates the song Bittersweet Symphony, by the Verve.

'Cause it's a bittersweet symphony, this life
Trying to make ends meet
You're a slave to money then you die

==

Somehow, I don’t think the Empty Suit Known as Barack Hussein Obama shares my appreciation of this song’s sentiment. Possibly handed the tuition for an elite education by the parents of convicted domestic terrorist Bill Ayers, definitely handed his ‘dream house’ by the convicted criminal Tony Rezko, and certainly rushed up the political ladder by the a Chicago machine universally recognized as the very model of political corruption; let’s just say what we know of his history (and there’s still a lot we don’t know – unreleased transcripts, etc.) looks like a charmed life.

My point is … I don’t think The One He Was Waiting For ever really sweated the numbers. The proof is the reckless abandon with which his administration has run up $5,000,000,000,000 ($5 TRILLION) in national debt across a mere three federal budget years (two of them not actually constrained by a budget, thanks to his fellow Democrat hacks in Congress - especially Dingy Harry Reid's Senate Democrat caucus). This rookie ideologue “inherited” a national deficit of approximately $10T from all the previous Presidents combined since 1789, and ran it up to $15T - a 50% increase in practically no time at all! Taking into consideration the timeline units, that’s slightly 74 times worse (as opposed to 72 times worse, just to be accurate) than taking a $10,000 household debt run up over six (6) years up to $15,000 in a single (1) year. Trust me, I did the math. Bottom line … I don’t think this clown Barry cares much about the numbers.

==

LAS notes BHO should probably start caring about the numbers now, though. Because the numbers foretell bad news for the only thing he really cares about: re-election. Because he’s a Leftist ideologue who clearly needs two, not merely one, term in the most powerful office on Earth to ‘fundamentally transform’ my republic.

==

A few numbers to contemplate in the wee hours, Barry …

414 – 0: House of Representatives vote REJECTING Barry’s budget for this year.

97 – 0: Senate vote REJECTING Barry’s budget for last year. (note: Dingy Harry Reid will not bring Barry's budget up for a vote this year. Mark it.)

235 – 193: House of Representatives vote IN FAVOR OF Paul Ryan’s budget for this year. (note: Still waiting for Dingy Harry Reid to bring a budget to the Senate Floor for this year. Won't happen. Mark it.)

Conclusion: You, Barry, are a pathetic little joke in matters of budgeting.

==

But these are not the numbers you really care about, are they Barry? Of course not. Your ideology informs you the mob masses are not even paying attention. The Electoral College possesses the number that really matter, for sure. Given a second term you can have more ‘flexibility’ to ‘fundamentally transform’ my republic into Greece; or better yet for you, the old Soviet Union. You know, the one that collapsed under its’ own Socialist dead weight.

The Electoral College will weigh in this November. But there are several twists and turns to navigate between now and then, which will play into the final electoral vote tally, aren’t there? A very big one is this number, isn’t it: 5 – 4? FIVE TO FREAKIN’ FOUR! How many baseball games have been decided by this slim margin? Perhaps by umpire error or omission?

Or wrestling matches?

In the constitutional corner … representing the constitution and the separation of powers doctrine … 4 justices appointed by Republicans. In the Leftist corner … 4 justices appointed by Democrats. Hanging on the ring apron wandering around aimlessly … Justice Kennedy.

==

It became too close for comfort when your Solicitor General was handed his ass in oral arguments, didn’t it, Barry? His ass.

So, you have embarrassed yourself over the past two days on this all important 5-4 number, haven’t you, Barry?

Yesterday - in the Rose Garden, of all places (what, no lab coats?), you presumed to instruct the Supreme Court that it should uphold your signature legislation, ObamaCare, which you characterized – in a lie – as being passed by a significant majority of Congress. Either you know the ObamaCare vote was a party line vote (making you a lying demagogue) or you don’t remember that it was (making you an idiot). Either way … simply embarrassingly stupid. I mean, for a guy who was supposed to slow the rising of the oceans and everything, you know.

Then, today … you attempted a ‘clarification’ and revealed your true self. Tiny … pathetic … Leftist ideological to the Nth.

==

It’s over for you, Barry. As of now. LAS marks it. I will save the “iron triangle” of gasoline prices, CPI, and unemployment for future posts. You are toast. Period. End of sentence.

Tonight, I shall simply modify Richard Ashcroft’s lyrics as follows:

'Cause it's a bittersweet symphony, this life
Seed of Saul Alinsky
You're slave to your ideology

==

Enjoy, dear reader.



Update 4/4/12

LAS likes how Limbaugh is explaining Barry's erratic, hyperbolic, and cynical statements of late. It is an open electoral appeal to the truly ignorant and dumb. So, that's it then ... 2012 will demonstrate just how dumb my republic has finally become. Dumb enough to re-elect a failed demagogue? We shall see.

On Hayek’s “Fatal Conceit” and BHO’s Energy Policy

Recent political events have brought to the forefront of LAS’ mind F.A. Hayek’s pithy concept of the ‘fatal conceit.’  Hayek, of course, is remembered as the founder of the Austrian school of free-market economic theory – later carried forward by the so-called Chicago school under Milton Friedman.

The basic idea of the ‘fatal conceit’ concept – specifically applied to economics - is this: no one is smart enough to direct the exchange of resources in any economy of any appreciable scale.  Not a single person ever born or who will ever be born is that smart.  The market must be allowed to freely produce profit and loss signals to producers and consumers for an economy to function and grow.   

When the market is replaced by the directives of a centralized command and control authority, both producers and consumers are reduced to beggars seeking favors from an omnipotent but hardly omniscient god-state run by fallible people.   This dysfunctional beggar citizenry is what we have come to mock with the label ‘crony.’  We have our crony capitalists (producers), such as Buffet and Immelt, seeking favorable advantage by short-cutting the market with favors dispensed by the dispensers of gub’ment favors.  But we also have crony consumers  throughout the republic  - such as anyone buying Obama’s latest line that the pathetic little payroll tax cut given to you out of his philanthropic instincts (a pander) is an offset to the rise in gas prices for which he has no responsibility (a lie).

Socialism in every one of its forms rejects market forces - and therefore inevitably degrades into a society broken down as 99% beggar citizenry seeking alms from 1% ruling elite.  The point is proven by a simple compare and contrast of conditions in East vs. West Europe, East vs. West Germany, and East vs. West Berlin immediately after we won the Cold War.  The Cold War (in Europe) was a giant social / economic experiment conducted on two groups of culturally and historically identical people living under two distinct systems.  The plainly observable economic conditions on each side, when the Berlin Wall finally came down, could not have been more black and white.

==

This book review of Hayek’s so-called “collected works” explains the concept of the fatal conceit as the false idea "man is able to shape the world around him according to his wishes."

As I recall many of my high school classmates exclaiming from time to time ... "yeah, right!"

(Note: Before you buy the book, the last of Hayek’s career, read this more in depth review including the history of the book’s creation. LAS does not want to be responsible for consumer disappointment.)

And via the magic of the Intertubes, I have come across this excellent definition of the fatal conceit concept, as it applies to socialism in particular.

Socialism fails, unavoidably, because it is based on the flawed concept, the “fatal conceit,” that one man or one group, one cabinet of commanding officials or one central committee, or one team of planners from Harvard and Yale, can gather and understand enough information in order to reshape the world around them according to their wishes, reshape human nature, and design an economic system that can outstrip the overall and long run performance of the decentralized and basically self-ordering and spontaneous processes of the marketplace.

==

Having now probably expended too many words on establishing a conceptual baseline for this humble post … for the modern blog reader, that is ... let us now return our attention to the original point of the post – recent news from the field on the topic of fatal conceit.

Let’s start with the energy policy coming from the Empty Suit Known as Barack Hussein Obama, which can only be described as a product of Andrew Klavan’s “Imagination Land.”

In one breath, the Empty Suit tells us drilling for more oil on American land won’t lower gas prices at the pump, yet in the next he tells us convincing Saudi Arabia to drill for more oil will achieve the same end. Huh? Perhaps he’s actually a super patriot with a secret strategy to get them to exhaust their reserves before we exhaust ours!

On the one hand, he derides oil as the energy of the “past”, and on the other hand lauds windmills – which have been around for centuries – as an energy of the “future.” I like Rush Limbaugh’s rule … talk to me about the energy of the future when you have something other than oil that can lift a jet airplane off the ground and keep it there. Nuclear might fit the bill … but I’m afraid it would entail too large a regulatory bureaucracy. You know, for the crash investigations.

Nuclear is a very efficient generator of electricity when kept stationary, produces zero carbon emissions in the process … and so naturally the Empty Suit’s administration insists on closing more nuclear plants. His EPA is closing coal-fired plants, too – on the grounds they produce too many carbon emissions. The alternatives they push – wind, solar, and now algae – produce not a scintilla of a percentage of the existing demand. Yet they exhort us to increase demand for plant produced electricity by driving electric cars. WTF, Barry?

Simply the Energy Policy From Imagination Land. As it can only come from BHO and his corrupt gang of progressives, faculty lounge wankers each and every one, adding up to zero days real world private sector experience.

==

Meanwhile, the real world relentlessly moves forward governed by the immutable laws of supply and demand …

Gas Prices rise precipitously, naturally. But that’s actually what they want – just not until *after* the election. BHO’s Secretary of Energy – Nobel Prize winning physicist Steven F. Chu - said he didn’t want lower gas prices before saying he didn’t really mean it. Look it up yourself on the Google machine. What I said.

The Consumer Price Index increases, in large part due the increase on gas prices at the pump. Then … drum roll please … something happens to really catch the Empty Suit’s attention - his approval ratings tank. (They will go lower. Mark it.)

How can this be! They’ve already worked it out in the faculty lounges! They imagine it and it will be! What is wrong with you people! Then the fatal conceit taps them on the shoulder and informs them the only possible explanation is … you’re stupid.

That’s what explains how a card-carrying member of BHO’s Information Ministry – aka the corrupt and biased Leftist media – was able to go out and give this disgracefully unreflective performance. The inflection in the voice of this pinhead John Harris – whoever the hell he is – each and every time he spews the word ‘stupid’ - makes it perfectly clear what he thinks of you. (memo to the pinhead Harris: Regarding the Muslim thing, dopey Mr. Harris, BHO technically is Muslim, according to the Islamic rule that the paternal religion determines the religion of the offspring. And note BHO’s faux Christianity makes him an ‘infidel’ in the very same Islamic code of law. Better not drop that Secret Service protection when a private citizen, Barry.)



Of course BHO himself received a telegram from the fatal conceit messenger. It instructed him to go out to a local community college to give an embarrassingly slapstick (read ‘unpresidential’) speech serving red meat to his devoted followers … ably refuted by conservative yeoman Charles Krauthammer. (Have your people call my people, Charles.)



Here’s the bottom line, kiddies. Fatal conceit will be the character flaw primarily responsible for BHO’s defeat at the polls in November. Mark it.

==

Footnote

My dog dragged in an ancient outdoor chew toy today. I wonder if the accumulated algae could power the battery of the smart phone that snapped this photograph. For that matter … if the entire chew toy were magically converted to a giant lump of algae, and used as the power source for this laptop … how many of these words could have been produced? Not many, I’ll wager. Alright, time to remove the disgusting chew toy and see what the real world has in store next. Good night, dear reader.

Update 3/19/12

You people are sooooooooooooo stoooooooopid!

Click the pic for the full story behind the fatal conceit of Obama's signature legislation.

What’s In a Number, Anyway?

The latest job report is out and the official (U-3) unemployment figure – the one everybody pays attention to – holds steady at 8.3%. So, I guess that means 917 out of every 1000 people who would like a job have one. That doesn’t sound so bad, I guess – unless of course you are one of the unlucky 83 on the outside looking in.

 BHO and his corrupt gang of progressives, including their well-heeled information ministry (aka the corrupt and biased liberal media), because it is now an election year, will spin this as positive news – using weasel words like:

 “Let’s call it a recovery.” 
LAS: Well, OK, if you say so.

 “Unemployment Rate Holds Steady” 
LAS: Yeah, steady at SUCKS.

 “The economy added 227,000 jobs in February …”
 LAS: “…when you need a consistent rate of 400,000 or more for freakin’ ever to drive U-3 down to 4-5%”

 And on down the line of BHO’s Information Ministry, now accessible via exercising the 21st century verb ‘to Google’.

 ==

 8.3% isn’t the only number to consider, however. To come up with this number, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) utilizes some filters.

If you count “underemployed” (those who want a full time job but are stuck with a part time job), “marginally attached” (haven’t looked recently – probably because they’re not the kind to bang their head against a wall), and “discouraged” (have stopped looking altogether, because, 40 weeks of looking – the new normal – really sucks) … the “real underemployment” number is 16.9%.

So, now it boils down to 169 of every 1000 “workers” ain’t really “working” to full capacity. If you are one of the 831 lucky ones with a full-time job, I’ll bet you run into some of them daily. They probably don’t look real happy. 

==

 Then, there’s this term ... “seasonally adjusted.” I’m not sure, but I think it has something to do with the people who pick our vegetables and fruits off the vine, and those who sell us our Christmas stocking stuffers.

The Gallup organization does not consider this factor, maybe because they can’t figure just how in the hell BLS determines this filter. Anyway, if you eliminate this filter, the numbers are 9.0% official unemployed and 19.0% “underemployed.” Rounding up for macroeconomic imprecision, that means 1 in 5 people you meet on the street are not earning what they are capable of earning. I'll bet they're not real happy.

 ==

 Then again, it also depends on which neighborhoods you habituate.

Going back to the U-3 baseline, Black male official unemployment “not seasonally adjusted” is 15.2%. God only knows what the “no-filter” rate is. I already know one thing … I don’t want to be caught walking aimlessly around a neighborhood full of those guys. I can easily imagine they are kind of pissed off.  Way too pissed off for me to bother with.

 For the love of God, I don’t know why you people keep voting for DemoHacks.



 LBJ’s ‘Great Society’ brought you nothing but misery. The Trillion Dollar Crap Sandwich (aka Stimulus) brings you nothing but misery. Until you stop banging your nappy heads against the political wall, I’m just avoiding your neighborhoods. Period. End of Sentence.