Welcome To The Flood My Friends

All flood, all the time.

This is reminding me too much of Alberto.

Lede Of The Day

Chip Towers lede this morning sounds like something out of Revelations.

Toppled trees, lightning strikes, fires, flooding and power outages are all being reported as a result of powerful storms that ripped through the metro area Sunday night and Monday morning.

Atlanta's obsession with weather continues unabated.

Gustav

First the bad news. Practically every model has Hurricane Gustav getting out into open water in the Gulf. If this follows it practically guarantees as U.S. coastal hit.

Now the really bad news. The Gulf is very warm right now which makes Gustav a potential "bomb".

The slightly hopeful news is the water near the Florida coast is slightly cooler meaning Gustav could weaken before landfall. Also there is a new disturbance just to the north which may cause this bad boy to weaken.

No matter what. This is a scary looking storm and bears watching.

MUR In Port St. Lucie

If you haven't heard, the coastal city of Port St. Lucie is basically under water.

Check out Amani's video where he's riding an airboat through the flooded streets.

This is why you should always have at least a three day supply of everything.

Not Fayed Away

Dude, how can a storm junkie like you not talk about Fay? Damn good question.

Fay is currently a tropical storm and seems intent on wandering all over Florida. When I left the sunshine state a few days ago, preparations were already under way. One of the last things I heard my brother say was "we can run an extension cord from the generator to run the fridge". Strange weather makes strange conversations seem normal.

Like most things that troll around the back roads of the south, tropical weather is usually chaotic, at times weirdly beneficial or psychotically evil - sometimes all three at once. You just never know whether your going to get the psychotic, gap toothed serial killer or the clumsy handy man who fixes your well after backing over your chickens.

The same stew that boils up the horror of Katrina, Hugo, Andrew and Alberto also produces three-day drought killing rain storms we so desperately need.

So let's hope our new friend Fay is the the hapless helper and not the creeping killer. Still better hide the chickens though.

Hurricane Preparedness Week

June 1st is the beginning of the hurricane season and this is Hurricane Preparedness Week.

Georgians don't normally think about hurricanes but we are way overdue for a hit.

Make sure you check out the Palm Beach Post's storm watch page. It's the best coverage on the net.

The Boiling Skies

As someone who grew up in tornado country bad weather usually doesn't rattle me, but a spinner ripping through the high rises of downtown Atlanta shakes even the hard core weather junkie.

Grayson shot the above video of the aftermath outside the Georgia Dome. Fans were just leavin the SEC Men's Basketball Tourney.

Update: Rusty has a great roundup of local impressions.

More Water Reports

More from the South Georgia hinterlands.

Spoke to a farmer friend this morning and even though this part of the state is still not as bad as the Atlanta region, it's still bad. Six months ago, while certain politicians under the Gold Dome were fiddling while Atlanta parched, the farmers of South Georgia were planting cotton and peanuts in dry fields, rolling the dice that rain would come. Fortunately for them, it did. Just enough for survival and not much else.

My friend told stories of folks extending their deep wells further because the aquifer is going lower and lower. That would be the Floridan Aquifer which is supposed to be practically indestructible. The problem is it is recharged by rainfall, both here and in the uplands of North Georgia, and ain't nobody getting any right now.

Bottom line is the opinion down here seems to be, don't come calling Atlanta, cause we ain't got none either.

Water Tour Continues

Sitting in central Florida with the rain steadly pouring from above, one suddenly feels akin to the primitive humans who looked to the heavens and silently wondered, how the hell does this happen?

To travel from a land so parched to one so lush in just a few days reminds of one truth. Weather has a mind of its own.

My Morning Wooten: Weather Edition

Too much pork for just one fork.

One day before Hurricane Dean hit Mexico, Texans were being urged to prepare for possible evacuation. We’re now up to Felix and from one day to the next, scientists cannot speak with certainty on the path of a hurricane. But the computer models that predicts global warming’s catastrophic future are taken by many as the gospel. But of course mass starvation was to be our future too before the Green Revolution.

Actually, the National Hurricane Center predicted a Yucatan landfall for Dean about five days out. Still, the Center always cautions to not depend too much on predictions over three days. Three days out, the NHC had Dean's second landfall in the central part of Mexico.

Of course, Texans were "urged" to be prepared. Note there were no required evacuations, only a cautionary message. Why? Because, although Dean was almost certainly going to hit south of the border, indeed, there was a small chance the storm could move north and being prepared is being prudent. In the end evacuations weren't necessary, because the initial predictions of those darned scientists were pretty much dead on.

But why acknowledge that due to new computer modeling the NHC has had a startling record of accuracy for the past three years when you can simply spin tales to support a political agenda that seems to oppose good science? Probably the same philosophy which lets you ignore the fact that both Dean and Felix turned into Category 5 bombs after entering the increasingly warm waters of the western Carribean.

As far as the "green revolution", population explosion fears in the 40's absolutely did lead to technological innovations, including the conservative darling DDT I might add, in food production which saved millions of people world wide. Some also argue the stability provided by families actually being able to feed their children kept certain third world countries from becoming petri dishes for communist revolution.

Why do you hate the fight against communism, Jim?

There's more craziness in today's column but instead of listening to me further, feel free to read for yourself using the asshattery of this initial paragraph as a prism of common sense and reality.

Felix

Wow. Felix got big and bad fast. From tropical storm to category 4 in less than a day. This is the bomb effect of the western Carribean and the Gulf I mentioned earlier. Looks like the Yucatan is about to have another bad week.

Hello Dean

Within two days, we may have our first hurricane of the season. Overnight, Tropical Storm Dean formed in the east Atlantic Ocean. Current models show the storm hitting Puerto Rico or Hispaniola as a category 2 then turning north.

As good as models are, they are only accurate for about two or three days. We need to hope they are correct and this storm will turn north into the Atlantic. Why? Because the Gulf of Mexico is hot. Boiling hot. Crawfish boil hot. Heat is to storms as jet fuel is to an afterburner.

Last year, much was made of no major hurricanes hitting the mainland U.S. The fact that is usually ignored is although their were plenty of hurricanes, due to various atmospheric factors, none reached the Gulf. And it is in the Gulf with its hot water where the bombs are created.

Current Gulf temperatures are between 85 and 90.

Go away Dean. We don't want your business down here.

Monday Stuff

I'm prepping for a trip and frankly there ain't a lot going on. So check out this bag of happiness.

A.man.i just got back from the National Association of Black Journalist conference and has a boatload of on the ground video reporting.

Is Johnny in or out? Jim Galloway and many others are wondering. Can't wait for 2010.

SEX! SEX! SEX!

Can anyone supporting I-3 please stand up?

Ron Paul is a freak! No, Ron Paul is a good guy!

Oh and we might have our first serious hurricane threat of the year. Those who live in the danger zones are rightfully nervous.

Gettin' Some Action

Not a real time image. Courtesy of NOAA.

Due to a stubborn Bermuda High, the Intertropical Convergence Zone has been forced south for the first 6 weeks of the 2007 hurricane season. Since the zone is a key ingredient in the witches brew of tropical storms, its being forced into the South American coast has created a lull in cyclonic development.

Well, no more. The high is relenting and the ITCZ is slowly moving north. Already there is something brewing just south of Puerto Rico.

Last year's relatively quiet season, i.e. little Gulf of Mexico activity, combined with this years slow start might bring on complacency. It shouldn't. We are now just entering peak hurricane season so it would be a good time to check all your preparations.

This morning's science moment brought to you by the letter H and the number 42.

Holy Jesus! We Lost A Satellite!

I seem to be in a screaming religious expletive mood.

Actually, we haven't lost a bird. Yet.

The QuikSCAT, which stands for Quick Scatterometer, is equipped with a sensor that provides tropical meteorologists with a storm's wind patterns. Without it, the accuracy of track forecasts could suffer 16 percent, when storms are three days out, and by 10 percent when storms are two days out, Bill Proenza, hurricane center director, said... The problem: When the satellite was launched in 1999, it was designed to last only five years.

Fortunately, Florida Rep. Ron Klein is going to root up some emergency funding. A friendly reminder. Hurricane season is less than two months away!

A Convenient Review

An Oscar bump for this one. Originally published on 1-23-07:

Oscar nominations were announced this morning. As expected Al Gore's slide show movie "An Inconvenient Truth" is nominated in the Best Documentary category. Expect much caterwauling from the usual suspects about another "Michael Moore" moment. Nothing could be further from the truth.

I finally watched the movie yesterday. Given my predilection for science subjects, particularly weather related, my reticence to watch the year's global warming "blockbuster" may surprise you. However, my gut refused to bypass the feeling that science and politics, although at times a necessary evil partnership, do not mix well. A description of a non-scientist spending 90 minutes using a slide show in an attempt to distill a complex idea to palatability brought visions of creationist abomination Ken Hovind.

Also, the clips I viewed seemed overwrought. My impression being Gore had gone for the easy sell; conflating individual disasters into evidence of a global problem. Science is not easy. Understanding weather is like plowing the ocean. I begin to claw my eyes when people use Katrina as evidence of global warming. They are both right and wrong, but miss the point.

As anyone who follows Creation/Evolution battles knows, a warrior for the right and good has to be a paladin not a politician. There can be no gray. There can be no vagaries. There can be no right and wrong. You must be pure and true in your quest. Since your enemies will use every stumble as a new flank for attack, you must give them no room for maneuver.

Following 2005's collossal hurricane season those with just enough knowledge to be dangerous screamed that the record number of hurricanes resulted from global warming. Many including myself cringed. What would happen we thought if 2006 was a fizzle? Hurricanes are the epitome of vagary in action. What little we do know about the formation of hurricanes is they are a delicate combination of multiple factors which must be stirred into a near-perfect witches brew. As is now known, the witches brew never bubbled the following year and the global warming doubters exploited the cries of the chicken littles to seed more doubt.

Predicting hurricane frequency is akin to reading the bones. Predicting strength not so much. It's a fairly simple formula. Hot water combined with little wind shear creates monsters. While the media obsessed with the ever increasing numbers of hurricanes in 2005, hard core weather observers noted the Gulf of Mexico reaching its hottest surface temperatures in decades. It was apparent that any storm reaching this boiling pot of water would explode. The frequency only made it more likely it would occur. Thus Rita, Wilma and of course Katrina.

Gore does slip into the mistake of exploiting Katrina but more about that later.

"I see obstacles to understanding and I want to find ways to overcome those obstacles." ~Al Gore

If "An Inconvenient Truth" were merely the story of a charisma-challenged politician driven into the wilderness by circumstance then returning with near messianic power of persuasion it would be compelling. But without the science it would be hollow; a confection, tasty with no sustain. The penultimate compliment I can pay the film is the science is there. The ultimate compliment is Gore changed my mind.

Science is about evidence. Sometimes evidence leads you in a certain direction. Sometimes it skews you off the road like ice in winter. But if you can amass enough compelling evidence in a particular direction you will at least know you are on the right road. Gore presents a mountain of evidence. Evidence that despite certain criticisms has been verified by a consensus of scientists. My fear that Gore would cobble together a patchwork of anecdotal evidence that could easily be attacked has been allayed. Instead, he presented wave after wave of compelling anecdotal and empirical evidence; never leaving a flank unprotected.

It was a Gore most had never seen. A Gore his supporters wish they had seen in 2000.

And about Katrina. Gore is no scientist but like any good scientist he understands the importance of an addendum. In the special features of the DVD Gore notes that new data reported after filming leaves the correlation of frequency of hurricanes and global warming still unknown. However, he quickly points out the correlation between water temperature, hurricane intensity and global warming has little question.

Gore understands that science is not dogma. Science is about admitting you do not know everything. Most importantly, science is processing all evidence. Not just evidence that is convenient.

Buy Bread and Milk, Mabel!

Winter weather may finally come to the sunny south!

Which of course means later this week we'se and us'es will be the laughing stock of the nation. For we will frantically storm the supermarkets buying bread, milk and various potent potables. We will rush home and listen to the old media gaggle breathlessly report on STORM WATCH '07! Some of us will stupidly try to drive in this unfamiliar environment and play bumpers cars all over the interstate. And of course Waffle House will remain open giving Neal Boortz another opportunity to chastise the rest of us for being lazy and stupid.

Just remember this you damned Yankees! In August when it's 110 degress and you are all flopping around like fishes on the beach for lack of that modern invention called conditioned air, we will all be galavantin' around drunk, laughing, half-naked and worshiping the sun god!

The Incredible Reach Of Tropical Storms

Despite all that has happened in the past year, I still don't think people understand just how incredible the reach and power of a tropical storm can be.

Right now I am listening to thunder from a storm that has been generated by Ernesto. Even though he is a depression. Even though he is some 600 miles to the south.

Before Andrew, the last Category 5 storm to hit the U.S. was Camille. She came ashore near Biloxi, MS.

Who can guess that state suffered the most storm related deaths from Camille?

Hint: I passed the road side marker marking the event during my travels back in June. (and yes, I wish I had stopped to take a picture)

Angels Bowling

There's a thunderstorm approaching my house. It must be a bad 'un cause it woke me up. I once slept through an earthquake.

Katrina Blogstorm

At Shakespeare's Sister.