Probably the latest weekend review ever. Blame real-life hobbies. Anyway, we start with the Senior Seasons feature:
Peachtree Ridge 28, Parkview 14 - Jordan Ellis is establishing himself as a workhorse, with 122 yards on 21 carries. Two touchdowns are included, one a run of 35 yards. Peachtree Ridge is 2-0.
Episcopal 30, Father Judge 22 - Playing tight end/H-back, Evan Butts scored on a 75-yard wheel route. Episcopal is 1-0.
Bayside 29, Landstown 10 - Quin Blanding caught a 73-yard pass and existed in the Landstown backfield on defense. Bayside is 1-0.
Mater Dei 44, Upland 13 (Jeffery Farrar) - Upland is 0-1.
Central Catholic 48, Naples Lely 10 (Caanan Brown) - CCC is 1-0.
Eastern Alamance 63, Cummings 28 (Will Richardson) - Cummings is 0-2.
Woodgrove 35, Freedom-South Riding 0 (J.J. Jackson) - Woodgrove is 1-0.
Riverbend 14, Chancellor 0 (Steven Moss) - Chancellor is 0-1.
The recruiting board gets a minor update too. For posterity's sake:
-- Moved DT Derrick Nnadi from green to yellow. A weird recruitment, this: Nnadi's been from yellow to green to blue and all the way back down again.
-- Moved OT Marcus Applefield from yellow to green. Applefield has a top five that includes UVA.
Not much motion here. Give it a few weeks into the season, really.
And in the rest of the world:
-- I'm intrigued by Jeff White's profile of UVA's new swim coach, Augie Busch. Stepping into Mark Bernardino's shoes is a very tall task, especially given the less-than-perfectly-smooth way the transition went down (no fault of Busch's) but there's a certain profile of coach that you'd want for the type of job that UVA is and Busch seems to fit it. Rubber meets the road next February and March at the ACC and NCAA meets.
-- The men's soccer team is off to a decent start, with a win over St. John's and a loss to Louisville, but it's really the ladies who are kicking that ass. Two straight four-goal wins over top-10 teams (Santa Clara and Penn State) have highlighted the opening stretch. UVA (that is, the ladies) has scored 16 goals in four games, with eight players getting on the scoreboard, and sophomore Brittany Ratcliffe leading the way with four goals.
-- Blast-from-the-past Jerton Evans, who played safety for George Welsh and Al Groh, is getting a start on his coaching career as the defensive coordinator at Bishop Ireton, which plays in the WCAC against DeMatha and Good Counsel.
-- On the depth chart, Maurice Canady moves ahead of DreQuan Hoskey at cornerback, and tight end is now a jumble and a half with the order being Burns, McGee, Swanson - but "or" is listed next to everyone. So really, there isn't a tight end depth chart right now. Those are the main changes for the Oregon game, although Mason Thomas now appears as the third free safety as well.
Showing posts with label evans. Show all posts
Showing posts with label evans. Show all posts
Thursday, September 5, 2013
Wednesday, April 3, 2013
hoops look back, part 1
Even though UVA didn't make the big tournament this year, nor get to the ACC tourney semifinals, I would argue this: any season in which expectations are exceeded is a success. And the Hoos did exactly that. Picked seventh in the ACC in the preseason and given a projected record of 19-12, 9-9 by Ken Pomeroy, UVA surpassed both with a four seed in the ACC tournament and a 21-9 record. It still only resulted in an NIT bid, but I don't hate that. When you've gotten to where the NIT is your floor instead of your ceiling, your program is in the right place. Some might say you shouldn't ever be happy with the NIT, but even Kentucky can't claim to be immune to NIT-dom.
Not forgetting this, either: The Hoos swept both VT and Maryland and beat all three Triangle teams. I'm OK with a season where that happens.
The preseason preview was split into two parts with a bit for each player, so let's mirror that approach today and have a chat about how everyone's year went.
#1 - Jontel Evans
As the team's only scholarship senior, Evans came in with a pretty well-established reputation. This year - on offense particularly - he took just about every piece of that reputation to its extreme. Known as a dicey free-throw shooter who refused to take three-pointers, but who ran the offense better than any other PG on the team and could get to the rim (albeit with sometimes questionable finishing abilities due to an insistence on finishing what he started regardless of the obstacle), Bub took those peaks and valleys and enhanced them all. The bad: Opponents played five feet off of him. If Ole Miss's Marshall Henderson had the greenest light ever (as per LeBron), Jontel had the reddest one. He took two threes all year, both desperation heaves at the end of a shot clock, or actually in the case of the one that went in, the end of a half. From halfcourt. It was reminiscent of his end-of-half shot against Miami a couple years ago that must have brushed a rafter in the gym, so high did it go. The fact that this year's crazyheave actually went in is one of the Jonteliest things to ever happen.
The other bad is that he was a touch turnover-prone, and his free throw shooting was appalling. But his defense was just as we've come to expect. It didn't improve over last year, but then, it didn't have much room to, and the difference between Evans and the other point guards was clear whenever he was off the court. And he definitely had a senior's feel for the offense. His season-high assist total was eight, which he hit three times, and had five games of seven assists as well. Solid stuff for the pace we play.
Absurdly early outlook for next year: We of course wish him well wherever his basketball career takes him. Evans is a likely candidate to carve out an overseas career, at least for a little while. The race to take his place will be interesting to watch. It'll be nice to have a PG whose shot opponents respect, but there'll be times Evans will be missed as well.
#2 - Paul Jesperson
Jesperson's leap from '11-'12 to '12-'13 was cosmic, partly because his freshman season saw him more or less unready for the college game. So it was a terrific thing to see him become a useful player instead of "that guy who was supposed to redshirt and now we know why."
Jesperson started 33 games this year and was a fixture in the starting lineup despite being one-dimensional at times on offense. You know how Tony Bennett loves defense, and Jesperson put forth quite a bit of effort there. His long, 6'6" frame was useful for harassing opposing shooting guards, and his positioning does a good job of making up for the deficit of athleticism he faces as compared to most other shooting guards. The NC State game - the regular season one - was the best exhibit of this. Jesperson didn't score in that game, but he chased Scott Wood around every screen and turned a 44% three-point shooter into a waste of shots.
Jesperson's own three started off the season on a torrid pace, but that slowed down as the season went on. His shot got flat and would leave him for entire games at a time. He only shot 35% from three after ACC play began, though his 4-for-4 showing at Maryland was more than appreciated. Every so often, too, he'd flash the ability to make a move at the rim you'd forgotten that he had. Overall, though, when Jesperson's shot wasn't falling he wasn't much use on offense. When it was, UVA was a scary dangerous team.
Absurdly early outlook for next year: Assuming Malcolm Brogdon is back in the rotation next year, it's Jesperson's minutes that seem most likely to suffer. If and when he does come back, it's hard to see Jesperson starting 30+ games and getting 26 minutes per. He could lose as many as 10 minutes from that. But he can also stave off the slide if he fixes his shot and proves irreplaceable on defense. As Will Sherrill proved, Tony rewards guys who know where they're supposed to be on the court, and Jesperson does.
#4 - Taylor Barnette
Of all the preseason predictions I made, Barnette's was probably the most accurate. In sum, it went something like: Emergency point guard that we'd rather not have to use and fringe rotation guy. Which is exactly what happened.
It turns out Barnette isn't a great point guard, really. Teven Jones was better at running the offense, and Barnette's defense ranged from adequate to major liability. The Boston College game that we lost, BC made a big game-changing run with Barnette in the game that ended as soon as Barnette was pulled.
But. Barnette did have game-changing ability in a good way. Three times, Barnette hit three three-balls in a game, and our average margin of victory in those games was 28. That would be the home games against Clemson and GT and the NIT game against St. John's. He basically was the spark that turned close-ish games into blowouts. He sat out nine games entirely and in many others he got the Tristan Spurlock mid-first-half cameo and nothing else, but you can't say he didn't have a role.
Absurdly early outlook for next year: More of the same, probably. London Perrantes and Devon Hall should provide some tough competition, particularly Perrantes as he'd be a candidate to play some off-ball guard too. And of course, Brogdon will also be in the mix. So Barnette will have to scrap for minutes. But as long as he can be counted on to respond when Tony says "get in there and hit some threes" there'll be a space, even if it's a small one.
#5 - Teven Jones
Kind of an interesting story. I don't have a way to back this up but it felt like Jones never really earned the trust of Tony Bennett over the year. Whatever he did to get suspended for the first game might've had something to do with it. Jones ran the offense passably well and occasionally - particularly in the NIT - hit a clutch three-pointer that would stymie an opponent "haha we're taking advantage of your bench" rally.
But his minutes went down the tubes when the calendar turned. In the nonconference games he played (after returning from suspension and injury) he averaged almost 24 minutes a game. Evans's return to full strength had a lot to do with this, of course, but Jones's minutes plummeted to 8.4 per game after ACC play began, and that's including his 20 minutes and start against UNC in the ACC opener. In six games he played less than five minutes, and picked up two DNPs as well.
Whether that's a function of Tony trusting his senior a lot or his freshman only a little, I can't say - it's probably both. But I don't really have any complaints about the offense with the ball in his hands. He didn't have Jontel's playmaking instincts and usually played it pretty safe, which brought his assist total down. But he was a better shooter than Jontel by a mile, both from the field and at the stripe.
Absurdly early outlook for next year: Will probably have to re-earn his job against Perrantes and Hall. Like I said before: the PG competition will be quite a race. Easily the top storyline of the offseason. And I'm not stupid enough to try and handicap it from here and now.
#10 - Mike Tobey
If it weren't for Justin Anderson, Tobey would easily be the guy whose metamorphosis was most exciting over the course of the season. Early on, he was missing more shots than he had a right to. And I'm no psychologist, but it looked an awful lot like a case of the nerves. He looked tight and afraid to screw up, which almost always leads to screwups. He biffed putbacks and occasionally channeled Assane Sene's turnover hands.
Once he got it figured out, though, the skills for which he was recruited started to really, really blossom. He showed he could hit shots from most anywhere - including behind the arc. He likes the twelve-foot baseline jumper. He shot almost 80% from the line. Tobey missed five games with mono (and probably was feeling the early effects of it during the GT loss in which he was largely ineffective) but once he got back, the lost time wasn't a great hindrance. Having a center that can score from all over is a lot of fun, and his KenPom statistical profile was very similar to the freshman seasons of Kosta Koufos (a 2008 one-and-done at Ohio State) and Brook Lopez.
Defensively, his improvement mirrored his offense. He'll be better when the weight room starts to take effect; right now he's still got a little bit of leftover baby fat from high school. But he did a nice job overall. Didn't foul much and blocked his share of shots. He could stand to improve on his rebounding numbers, but sometimes that's hard with Akil Mitchell grabbing so many; plus, the pack-line isn't conducive to elite rebounding numbers from your center because it encourages the opponent to take long shots.
Absurdly early outlook for next year: Could double his minutes; he averaged 14. UVA's offense is finally showing signs of being multidimensional, and Tobey's going to be an indispensible part of that.
#11 - Evan Nolte
Opposing coaches really hate it when you put a 6'8" three-point shooter out there. Nolte has a really nice stroke, and UVA - with Nolte - has the ability to put a massive backcourt on the floor. It turns out that it's awfully hard to close out on Nolte, which keeps defenders from helping out - or else risks him shooting over the top. That's not unique to Nolte - most mismatch forwards are the same way, it's why I call them mismatch forwards. But UVA, with Jesperson and Joe Harris at 6'6", and some big point guards on the way, can really take advantage of Nolte's height and shooting to open up wide swaths of the floor.
Especially against the bench players that Nolte usually goes against. The weaknesses in his game were apparent as the season rolled on: he's often asked to guard opposing fours, but he's not really a four himself and doesn't have the strength. Nor does he have the quickness to guard the league's best threes. Some wings, yes, but not the best ones. And he doesn't really like to put the ball on the floor and attack. If Nolte improves his handle, which he's got the capability to do, it would add a dimension to his game that would make him nigh-unstoppable by anyone's second string. But as a starter, I don't yet see it. There's a reason he was switched back to the bench in favor of Justin Anderson when Darion Atkins had to be shelved.
Absurdly early outlook for next year: I actually see Nolte as one of the players at the most risk to lose minutes. Anthony Gill and a healthy Atkins will make sure Nolte never has to guard any power forwards, which is a good thing for the overall mix. And Anderson already started eating into Nolte's time at the three. Nolte's minutes got less productive toward the season's end, and he's got to reverse that trend. He could be a 20-minutes-a-game kind of guy with the necessary refinements, but it's also not inconceivable that he could be reduced to a fringe-rotation three-point specialist, depending on how other elements of the rotation shake out.
Not forgetting this, either: The Hoos swept both VT and Maryland and beat all three Triangle teams. I'm OK with a season where that happens.
The preseason preview was split into two parts with a bit for each player, so let's mirror that approach today and have a chat about how everyone's year went.
#1 - Jontel Evans
As the team's only scholarship senior, Evans came in with a pretty well-established reputation. This year - on offense particularly - he took just about every piece of that reputation to its extreme. Known as a dicey free-throw shooter who refused to take three-pointers, but who ran the offense better than any other PG on the team and could get to the rim (albeit with sometimes questionable finishing abilities due to an insistence on finishing what he started regardless of the obstacle), Bub took those peaks and valleys and enhanced them all. The bad: Opponents played five feet off of him. If Ole Miss's Marshall Henderson had the greenest light ever (as per LeBron), Jontel had the reddest one. He took two threes all year, both desperation heaves at the end of a shot clock, or actually in the case of the one that went in, the end of a half. From halfcourt. It was reminiscent of his end-of-half shot against Miami a couple years ago that must have brushed a rafter in the gym, so high did it go. The fact that this year's crazyheave actually went in is one of the Jonteliest things to ever happen.
The other bad is that he was a touch turnover-prone, and his free throw shooting was appalling. But his defense was just as we've come to expect. It didn't improve over last year, but then, it didn't have much room to, and the difference between Evans and the other point guards was clear whenever he was off the court. And he definitely had a senior's feel for the offense. His season-high assist total was eight, which he hit three times, and had five games of seven assists as well. Solid stuff for the pace we play.
Absurdly early outlook for next year: We of course wish him well wherever his basketball career takes him. Evans is a likely candidate to carve out an overseas career, at least for a little while. The race to take his place will be interesting to watch. It'll be nice to have a PG whose shot opponents respect, but there'll be times Evans will be missed as well.
#2 - Paul Jesperson
Jesperson's leap from '11-'12 to '12-'13 was cosmic, partly because his freshman season saw him more or less unready for the college game. So it was a terrific thing to see him become a useful player instead of "that guy who was supposed to redshirt and now we know why."
Jesperson started 33 games this year and was a fixture in the starting lineup despite being one-dimensional at times on offense. You know how Tony Bennett loves defense, and Jesperson put forth quite a bit of effort there. His long, 6'6" frame was useful for harassing opposing shooting guards, and his positioning does a good job of making up for the deficit of athleticism he faces as compared to most other shooting guards. The NC State game - the regular season one - was the best exhibit of this. Jesperson didn't score in that game, but he chased Scott Wood around every screen and turned a 44% three-point shooter into a waste of shots.
Jesperson's own three started off the season on a torrid pace, but that slowed down as the season went on. His shot got flat and would leave him for entire games at a time. He only shot 35% from three after ACC play began, though his 4-for-4 showing at Maryland was more than appreciated. Every so often, too, he'd flash the ability to make a move at the rim you'd forgotten that he had. Overall, though, when Jesperson's shot wasn't falling he wasn't much use on offense. When it was, UVA was a scary dangerous team.
Absurdly early outlook for next year: Assuming Malcolm Brogdon is back in the rotation next year, it's Jesperson's minutes that seem most likely to suffer. If and when he does come back, it's hard to see Jesperson starting 30+ games and getting 26 minutes per. He could lose as many as 10 minutes from that. But he can also stave off the slide if he fixes his shot and proves irreplaceable on defense. As Will Sherrill proved, Tony rewards guys who know where they're supposed to be on the court, and Jesperson does.
#4 - Taylor Barnette
Of all the preseason predictions I made, Barnette's was probably the most accurate. In sum, it went something like: Emergency point guard that we'd rather not have to use and fringe rotation guy. Which is exactly what happened.
It turns out Barnette isn't a great point guard, really. Teven Jones was better at running the offense, and Barnette's defense ranged from adequate to major liability. The Boston College game that we lost, BC made a big game-changing run with Barnette in the game that ended as soon as Barnette was pulled.
But. Barnette did have game-changing ability in a good way. Three times, Barnette hit three three-balls in a game, and our average margin of victory in those games was 28. That would be the home games against Clemson and GT and the NIT game against St. John's. He basically was the spark that turned close-ish games into blowouts. He sat out nine games entirely and in many others he got the Tristan Spurlock mid-first-half cameo and nothing else, but you can't say he didn't have a role.
Absurdly early outlook for next year: More of the same, probably. London Perrantes and Devon Hall should provide some tough competition, particularly Perrantes as he'd be a candidate to play some off-ball guard too. And of course, Brogdon will also be in the mix. So Barnette will have to scrap for minutes. But as long as he can be counted on to respond when Tony says "get in there and hit some threes" there'll be a space, even if it's a small one.
#5 - Teven Jones
Kind of an interesting story. I don't have a way to back this up but it felt like Jones never really earned the trust of Tony Bennett over the year. Whatever he did to get suspended for the first game might've had something to do with it. Jones ran the offense passably well and occasionally - particularly in the NIT - hit a clutch three-pointer that would stymie an opponent "haha we're taking advantage of your bench" rally.
But his minutes went down the tubes when the calendar turned. In the nonconference games he played (after returning from suspension and injury) he averaged almost 24 minutes a game. Evans's return to full strength had a lot to do with this, of course, but Jones's minutes plummeted to 8.4 per game after ACC play began, and that's including his 20 minutes and start against UNC in the ACC opener. In six games he played less than five minutes, and picked up two DNPs as well.
Whether that's a function of Tony trusting his senior a lot or his freshman only a little, I can't say - it's probably both. But I don't really have any complaints about the offense with the ball in his hands. He didn't have Jontel's playmaking instincts and usually played it pretty safe, which brought his assist total down. But he was a better shooter than Jontel by a mile, both from the field and at the stripe.
Absurdly early outlook for next year: Will probably have to re-earn his job against Perrantes and Hall. Like I said before: the PG competition will be quite a race. Easily the top storyline of the offseason. And I'm not stupid enough to try and handicap it from here and now.
#10 - Mike Tobey
If it weren't for Justin Anderson, Tobey would easily be the guy whose metamorphosis was most exciting over the course of the season. Early on, he was missing more shots than he had a right to. And I'm no psychologist, but it looked an awful lot like a case of the nerves. He looked tight and afraid to screw up, which almost always leads to screwups. He biffed putbacks and occasionally channeled Assane Sene's turnover hands.
Once he got it figured out, though, the skills for which he was recruited started to really, really blossom. He showed he could hit shots from most anywhere - including behind the arc. He likes the twelve-foot baseline jumper. He shot almost 80% from the line. Tobey missed five games with mono (and probably was feeling the early effects of it during the GT loss in which he was largely ineffective) but once he got back, the lost time wasn't a great hindrance. Having a center that can score from all over is a lot of fun, and his KenPom statistical profile was very similar to the freshman seasons of Kosta Koufos (a 2008 one-and-done at Ohio State) and Brook Lopez.
Defensively, his improvement mirrored his offense. He'll be better when the weight room starts to take effect; right now he's still got a little bit of leftover baby fat from high school. But he did a nice job overall. Didn't foul much and blocked his share of shots. He could stand to improve on his rebounding numbers, but sometimes that's hard with Akil Mitchell grabbing so many; plus, the pack-line isn't conducive to elite rebounding numbers from your center because it encourages the opponent to take long shots.
Absurdly early outlook for next year: Could double his minutes; he averaged 14. UVA's offense is finally showing signs of being multidimensional, and Tobey's going to be an indispensible part of that.
#11 - Evan Nolte
Opposing coaches really hate it when you put a 6'8" three-point shooter out there. Nolte has a really nice stroke, and UVA - with Nolte - has the ability to put a massive backcourt on the floor. It turns out that it's awfully hard to close out on Nolte, which keeps defenders from helping out - or else risks him shooting over the top. That's not unique to Nolte - most mismatch forwards are the same way, it's why I call them mismatch forwards. But UVA, with Jesperson and Joe Harris at 6'6", and some big point guards on the way, can really take advantage of Nolte's height and shooting to open up wide swaths of the floor.
Especially against the bench players that Nolte usually goes against. The weaknesses in his game were apparent as the season rolled on: he's often asked to guard opposing fours, but he's not really a four himself and doesn't have the strength. Nor does he have the quickness to guard the league's best threes. Some wings, yes, but not the best ones. And he doesn't really like to put the ball on the floor and attack. If Nolte improves his handle, which he's got the capability to do, it would add a dimension to his game that would make him nigh-unstoppable by anyone's second string. But as a starter, I don't yet see it. There's a reason he was switched back to the bench in favor of Justin Anderson when Darion Atkins had to be shelved.
Absurdly early outlook for next year: I actually see Nolte as one of the players at the most risk to lose minutes. Anthony Gill and a healthy Atkins will make sure Nolte never has to guard any power forwards, which is a good thing for the overall mix. And Anderson already started eating into Nolte's time at the three. Nolte's minutes got less productive toward the season's end, and he's got to reverse that trend. He could be a 20-minutes-a-game kind of guy with the necessary refinements, but it's also not inconceivable that he could be reduced to a fringe-rotation three-point specialist, depending on how other elements of the rotation shake out.
Wednesday, March 20, 2013
a song of ice and fire
Don't go getting the idea that whatever that was last night was anything poetic (or prosaic given the title inspiration), or worthy of any songs. Anyway, there won't be any danger of that if you saw the game. It was really nice of the players to stage an impromptu Fan Appreciation Night by firing souvenir after souvenir into the stands, but you don't win games that way. Tony Bennett won't be including "share the basketball" in his pregame speeches any more, because it's being taken far too literally these days.
But playing shit basketball is no excuse for losing. Not to Norfolk State. And good basketball teams are not immune to bad basketball, but they are expected to find ways to win games no matter how many times they oopsed the ball to the other team. And they can't just do it by playing basketball because that's how they got in that predicament in the first place. You've got to, in the words of the great Roman poet Cliche, "up your game." It takes a little fire and a little ice.
That's where Akil Mitchell and Justin Anderson came in. Their stat lines, other than their team-leading 15 points and Akil's double-double, don't exactly say "carried the team." Akil shot 5-for-11 from both the field and the line. He had five turnovers. Anderson had three. In fact, the five starters accounted for every single one of UVA's 16 TOs.
But when Norfolk State's press got even tougher than it had been and the Hoos looked like they might be on the cusp of a collapse, Akil Mitchell turned on the fire with a couple thunderous dunks. Anderson brought his too. Anderson put on his playmaking hat and the words "Akil Mitchell made dunk. Assisted by Justin Anderson." started showing up in the play by play. Athletic forwards who run the floor are poison to a press, and Mitchell and Anderson realized they were athletic forwards not a moment too soon.
Getting too amped up, though, is also poison; it sends all your shots bouncing everywhere but inside the hoop. Veterans have a little ice too. Mitchell had been clanging free throws all night, so when Jontel Evans went down hard and had to leave the game after earning an and-1, NSU naturally chose Mitchell to take the free throw. They were repaid with some sweet string music. When NSU hit a late-ish three to stay within threatening distance, their hack-an-Ak game was repaid the same way. Anderson drilled four in a row not two minutes earlier. If I was impressed with anything it was clutch free throws with Norfolk State playing rough and UVA firing up in response. To switch the calm on and off shows a real degree of mental maturity. Ice and fire.
************************************************
-- I'm not gonna go so far as to label Norfolk State "thuggish" but they danced on the edge of the rulebook a few times. The rules are inadequate to handle a situation in which a defender wraps up a ballhandler in a bear hug in order to prevent him from passing to an open teammate downcourt; either that or the refs were too gutless to call it as it should've been. A provision for a clear path foul exists when you foul a dribbler who has nothing between him and the basket, but a passer - it doesn't exist. And yes, when your hand flies upward and smacks your opponent (in this case, Evan Nolte) in the face, and you didn't get anywhere near the basketball, a flagrant foul needs to be called.
-- There've been occasional calls lately to get rid of the charging foul because of exactly the situation that Jontel Evans faced: a too-late defender attempting to take a charge without actually defending and undercutting the ballcarrier in the air. Obviously getting rid of the charging foul is stupid. I shouldn't need to explain that. But perhaps they should rewrite things so that a flagrant, instead of a cheesy blocking foul, is assigned to a defender for undercutting an airborne shooter. After all, there's no attempt to play the ball whatsoever. It might make guys think twice about diving in for a charge when it's too late; the risk-reward balance isn't very high the way things are now.
-- Teven Jones played 11 of the most efficient and underrated minutes we've seen out of a player all year.
-- Nice win and all, kinda, but play like that against a decent team - even one that suspended its leading scorer - and the season will be over at halftime.
But playing shit basketball is no excuse for losing. Not to Norfolk State. And good basketball teams are not immune to bad basketball, but they are expected to find ways to win games no matter how many times they oopsed the ball to the other team. And they can't just do it by playing basketball because that's how they got in that predicament in the first place. You've got to, in the words of the great Roman poet Cliche, "up your game." It takes a little fire and a little ice.
That's where Akil Mitchell and Justin Anderson came in. Their stat lines, other than their team-leading 15 points and Akil's double-double, don't exactly say "carried the team." Akil shot 5-for-11 from both the field and the line. He had five turnovers. Anderson had three. In fact, the five starters accounted for every single one of UVA's 16 TOs.
But when Norfolk State's press got even tougher than it had been and the Hoos looked like they might be on the cusp of a collapse, Akil Mitchell turned on the fire with a couple thunderous dunks. Anderson brought his too. Anderson put on his playmaking hat and the words "Akil Mitchell made dunk. Assisted by Justin Anderson." started showing up in the play by play. Athletic forwards who run the floor are poison to a press, and Mitchell and Anderson realized they were athletic forwards not a moment too soon.
Getting too amped up, though, is also poison; it sends all your shots bouncing everywhere but inside the hoop. Veterans have a little ice too. Mitchell had been clanging free throws all night, so when Jontel Evans went down hard and had to leave the game after earning an and-1, NSU naturally chose Mitchell to take the free throw. They were repaid with some sweet string music. When NSU hit a late-ish three to stay within threatening distance, their hack-an-Ak game was repaid the same way. Anderson drilled four in a row not two minutes earlier. If I was impressed with anything it was clutch free throws with Norfolk State playing rough and UVA firing up in response. To switch the calm on and off shows a real degree of mental maturity. Ice and fire.
************************************************
-- I'm not gonna go so far as to label Norfolk State "thuggish" but they danced on the edge of the rulebook a few times. The rules are inadequate to handle a situation in which a defender wraps up a ballhandler in a bear hug in order to prevent him from passing to an open teammate downcourt; either that or the refs were too gutless to call it as it should've been. A provision for a clear path foul exists when you foul a dribbler who has nothing between him and the basket, but a passer - it doesn't exist. And yes, when your hand flies upward and smacks your opponent (in this case, Evan Nolte) in the face, and you didn't get anywhere near the basketball, a flagrant foul needs to be called.
-- There've been occasional calls lately to get rid of the charging foul because of exactly the situation that Jontel Evans faced: a too-late defender attempting to take a charge without actually defending and undercutting the ballcarrier in the air. Obviously getting rid of the charging foul is stupid. I shouldn't need to explain that. But perhaps they should rewrite things so that a flagrant, instead of a cheesy blocking foul, is assigned to a defender for undercutting an airborne shooter. After all, there's no attempt to play the ball whatsoever. It might make guys think twice about diving in for a charge when it's too late; the risk-reward balance isn't very high the way things are now.
-- Teven Jones played 11 of the most efficient and underrated minutes we've seen out of a player all year.
-- Nice win and all, kinda, but play like that against a decent team - even one that suspended its leading scorer - and the season will be over at halftime.
Tuesday, March 19, 2013
game preview: Norfolk State
Date/Time: Tuesday, March 19; 9:00
TV: ESPNUVA
Record against the Spartans: 1-0
Last meeting: UVA 50, NSU 49; 12/20/10, Charlottesville
Last game: NCSt. 75, UVA 56 (3/15); BCU 70, NSU 68 (3/13)
KenPom:
Tempo:
UVA: 60.5 (#338)
NSU: 68.6 (#56)
Offense:
UVA: 107.5 (#67)
NSU: 93.0 (#289)
Defense:
UVA: 88.9 (#18)
NSU: 98.8 (#130)
Pythag:
UVA: .8759 (#27)
NSU: .3498 (#224)
Projected lineups:
Virginia:
PG: Jontel Evans (4.3 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 5.0 apg)
SG: Paul Jesperson (5.1 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 0.9 apg)
SF: Joe Harris (16.9 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 2.2 apg)
SF: Justin Anderson (6.5 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 2.2 apg)
PF: Akil Mitchell (13.3 ppg, 8.9 rpg, 1.5 apg)
Norfolk State:
PG: Jamel Fuentes (5.0 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 5.0 apg)
SG: Malcolm Hawkins (11.5 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 1.2 apg)
SG: Pendarvis Williams (14.2 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 1.7 apg)
PF: Rob Johnson (9.3 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 1.8 apg)
C: Brandon Goode (7.9 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 0.2 apg)
Postseason here we go. UVA will only play home games from here on out, thanks to being one of the NIT's marquee teams, unless they make it to Madison Square Garden, where they couldn't get to in November. Regardless of only being asked to the junior prom and not the senior one, you have to admit that a season in which UVA swept Maryland and VT and beat all three Triangle teams is a pretty successful one. The Hoos should be able to carry it forward for at least one more game, with instate opponent Norfolk State coming to town tonight. UVA has only ever played Norfolk State once and needed a last-second tip-in to win it, but that was a much less talented team back in 2010-11.
-- UVA on offense
One thing that stands out on the KenPom scouting report for NSU is their 3-point defense, which is 9th in the country. This makes sense for two reasons. One is that NSU plays in the MEAC, which is not likely to be a place where awesome three-point shooters congregate. Even the really bad defensive teams in that conference have better 3-point defenses than most of the rest of their metrics. Two, NSU has a couple long and tall shooting guards-slash-wings, who would naturally be pretty good at contesting three pointers.
Fortunately, we nullify that some by having all our three-point shooters also be pretty tall. That kind of defender has been giving our shooters some fits lately, but half of the problem is still just hitting the open ones, which hasn't been easy.
When UVA pounds it inside, seven-foot center Brandon Goode is there to defend for NSU. Goode is a solid shot-blocker with two per game and nearly a 10% block rate. However, Goode only plays about half of NSU's minutes, so UVA will otherwise find room to work inside. Goode fouls a lot, too, a likely reason for his minutes limitations. On the perimeter, the Hoos should watch for point guard Jamal Fuentes, who is so like Jontel Evans its scary. More on that in a bit, but Fuentes is a good on-ball defender who gets his share of steals.
NSU has overall done a great job on defense this year - albeit in a crap conference. The thing dragging their ranking down, other than SOS adjustment, is their horrible rebounding. Even Goode isn't a particularly great rebounder. There should be chances for some putback buckets, all the more reason to work it inside.
-- UVA on defense
For all their success on defense, and the Spartans have had some this year, they're pretty poor on offense. Stop me if you've heard this description of a point guard: never shoots threes, can get to the rim at times, high assist rate, good on-ball defense. It's Jontel Evans, but it's also the Spartan PG Jamal Fuentes, who other than being four inches taller than Evans, could be a long-lost twin. Fuentes is content to work the offense through his fellow guards, Pendarvis Williams and Malcolm Hawkins.
Williams is the most deadly of the bunch, and not just relative to the rest of them. He's an excellent shooter from any area on the court, inside or outside the arc, and an 80% free-throw shooter too. Williams is the lone starting-lineup holdover from last year's team that upset Missouri in the NCAA's. He'll be a tough assignment for anyone.
Hawkins, on the other hand is a volume scorer, and volume scorers don't do well against UVA because we take away the volume. Brandon Goode is a respectable force inside, but should be able to be limited if UVA uses the low-post double and forces him to pass, which is a weak point of his game. Power forward Rob Johnson is another volume scorer, and probably less skilled than sixth-man Rashid Gaston, who comes off the bench to form a three-man rotation down low.
NSU is actually a little thin off the bench; there are back-end players they use but only seven in the main rotation. The other is Kris Brown, a shooting guard of limited usage. Fuentes is sometimes spelled by Marese Phelps, who isn't really a threat, but sometimes NSU just goes without for a few minutes.
-- Outlook
Expect a low-scoring game here. Norfolk State is respectable on defense and not so hot on offense, and other than the NC State game, UVA's struggles have been almost exclusively on the offensive end. Plus the Spartans will come out fired up; they'll have those memories of last year's big game on their minds as well as the added motivation of beating the big instate team in their own house. What they fortunately won't have is Kyle O'Quinn (a Reggie Cleveland All-Star if ever there was one) tearing it up the way he did to Mizzou. UVA's been kind of crummy lately but I can't bring myself to believe they can't at least get past an 8-seeded MEAC team at home. If we lose this one, I'm glad it's the end of the season because I wouldn't want to watch anything else after that.
-- Final score: UVA 66, NSU 51
Tuesday, March 12, 2013
weekend review and rooting guide
Obviously there's no sugarcoating the fact that Sunday's regular season finale against Maryland was ugly with a capital "ugly." No surprise there. What might surprise you is if I said it wasn't just the first half. The whole damn game was ugly. The truth is that I don't think the second half was any prettier than the first.
The main difference is that Maryland started playing a lot worse. Or more truthfully, that they played more like Maryland is used to playing. The clock struck halftime and Nick Faust turned into a pumpkin. Justin Anderson's putback slam was a potential spark according to the announcers, and that might've been a turning point of sorts, but then, I don't think there was a particular turning point. KenPom's win probability chart for the game shows a steadyish slope in Maryland's favor for pretty much the whole first half; the second half probabilities swerve wildly back and forth and every single play is designated "high leverage." And eventually it's swerved its way to the good guys. That's a pretty accurate portrayal of how it felt to watch. Both teams just played ugly basketball for 20 minutes and UVA played less ugly than Maryland and it was all good in the end.
That speaks to the talent difference. Joe Harris had a totally pathetic shooting night (4-for-18) but the complementary players picked him up (Akil Mitchell and Mike Tobey in particular.) Our complements are better than their complements, and their star (Alex Len, I suppose, but it's hard to say Maryland really has had a lead dog this season) played even worse than Harris, because Harris really gets basketball and Len has a way to go.
(Case in point: the final play of regulation, in which Len not only allowed Mike Tobey to set up shop right next to the hoop, but then foolishly - and halfheartedly - went for the steal and found himself in no position to do anything at all.... especially defend the bucket. Tie game achieved.)
That gives UVA an ACC tournament bye for the second year in a row. Since ACC expansion to 12 teams, this is the 3rd bye that UVA has managed, and each and every time, NC State has been the team that played through to UVA's bracket. And won, I might add. I'm not so sure I wasn't pulling for NC State to beat Florida State on Saturday so that we might flip the script on them. There's probably something to be said for the momentum gained from beating the crappiest team in the conference and the rhythm from playing while your future opponent sits.
I'd've liked to have the excellent chance as well to add a neutral-site win to UVA's RPI resume. Certainly, winning on Friday would do wonders for UVA's tourney chances; I would go so far as to say that it would lock down a bid. More than for NCAA reasons, though, I just want that quarterfinal win for its own sake. I've yet to even see one as a UVA fan.
(By the way, David Teel has the obvious perspective on what Tony Bennett has achieved this year. Essentially this was a season where UVA was supposed to finish 7th, instead finished 4th, and did it with Malcolm Brogdon on ice, Jontel Evans out nine games with a broken foot, Darion Atkins ineffective for most of the ACC season with shin splints, and Mike Tobey parked for a couple weeks with mono. We had the usual boatload of health problems and hardly noticed.)
Oh, and congratulations are in order for Harris and Mitchell for making the ACC's 1st and 3rd teams respectively, and Jontel Evans for making the all-defense team. The latter is a little bit of a reputation pick, kind of the way Pudge Rodriguez kept winning Gold Gloves even as a mid-30-year-old catcher, but it's not like Evans is undeserving either. And the selections for Harris and Mitchell are spot on and exactly what they deserved. No, I don't think I'd have put Mitchell on the 2nd team. 3rd is just right; the competition is pretty good this year.
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As a bubble team, even with one foot in the tournament field, it's probably worth a look at what the rest of the bubble is up to this week. Here's a rooting guide for the conference tournaments you want to look at:
Atlantic 10: Temple did itself a big favor by beating VCU. Bad for us. They have the A-10's 3rd seed and draw the winner of UMass-George Washington on Friday. Those teams are solid NIT material and aren't in the NCAA conversation, so you'll be pulling for whichever one to soften up Temple's resume a little. La Salle is in a dicier spot: as the 4 seed, they drew the winner of Butler-Dayton, so, they drew Butler. Excellent as long as Butler takes care of business. Butler's tourney resume is ironclad, with a whole assortment of wins over really good nonconference teams (Indiana, UNC, Gonzaga) so they can't play their way out no matter what. But they can take care of La Salle for us.
Big 12: UVA is literally Lunardi's last at-large in. Baylor is the first out. They have the Big 12's 6 seed and drew Oklahoma State in the first round. You are a big Cowboys fan; a Baylor win might leapfrog them past us even if we do beat NC State. Iowa State is sort of kind of bubbly, so it wouldn't hurt if they lost to Oklahoma, either. But the biggie is Baylor. Also keep in mind that Baylor was one of the teams that Adidas outfitted with their Zubaz getup, so there's that too.
Big Ten: Iowa is kind of a fringe bubble team hanging on at the bottom. If they go on a rampage - and the Big Ten has been anything-goes this year in a good way - they could start to look interesting to the committee. After their opening-round game against Northwestern, they would face Michigan State. I'm not rooting for Sparty in any event, but you might want to.
C-USA: This conference kind of sucks, which is good news. Southern Miss is the only bubble team, and really at this point they're less of a bubble risk than a potential bid thief. They're the #2 seed in the C-USA tourney, and nothing they do there short of beating Memphis would impress the committee enough to extend a bid. And if they beat Memphis they're an autobid anyway.
Mountain West: A surprisingly tough conference this year. Boise State has a golden opportunity, playing in the 4/5 game against San Diego State. SDSU is both a very likely tourney team and kind of vulnerable in this game. Boise is who Lunardi has us playing in the NCAA play-in right now, putting them at basically the same level as us. You definitely want San Diego State to pull this one out and soften up Boise's resume a touch.
Pac-12: Practically not worth mentioning, but Arizona State is in the same position as Iowa where if they go on a rampage they could attract some of the committee's attention.
SEC: Also known as Bubbleville. The SEC has one sure thing (Florida) and a whole host of teams that'll watch the selection show with a few nerves. No fewer than four bubble teams populate the SEC tourney. As 2 and 3 seeds, respectively, Kentucky and Ole Miss are on a semifinals collision course. As 4 and 5 seeds, Alabama and Tennessee have the same fate, only in the quarterfinals. As with CUSA, the committee will not be impressed by anything these teams do prior to those games, with one exception: Missouri is a solidly-in team with a low seed (6) and in position to upend Mississippi before that Kentucky game ever happens. Your idea result (barring an upset like Arkansas over Kentucky) is for Missouri to blow through that side of the bracket and eliminate both UK and the Rebels. Barring that, at least one team will take out the other; you probably want it to be Kentucky that beats Ole Miss since Ole Miss is lurking from below while Kentucky is slightly above. That said, if you want to root for Kentucky to earn a nice NIT #1 seed, I won't blame you one bit. As for Alabama/Tennessee, it's another clear eliminator, but with a rooting interest: you actually kind of want the Vols to look like a tournament team, just to make that December win look a little shinier. Plus, since we've already played Tennessee, the committee may look to avoid that rematch, which in turn may entice them to give UVA a slightly more favorable position in the S-curve.
In sum, your rooting guide looks like this:
UMass-GWash over Temple
Butler over La Salle
Oklahoma State over Baylor
Oklahoma over Iowa State
Northwestern or Michigan State over Iowa
anyone to knock off Southern Miss
San Diego State over Boise State
Stanford or UCLA over Arizona State
Missouri over Ole Miss and Kentucky
Kentucky over Ole Miss if comes to that
Tennessee over Alabama
Left unsaid is that obviously we want to beat NC State (which could make all of this moot) and to root for the favorites in the smaller conference tourneys; teams such as Akron, Louisiana Tech, and Bucknell. (None are especially likely to steal a bid, but you don't want to take chances.)
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Since this basically just became a basketball post, I'll save baseball and lacrosse for tomorrow. But there was one development last week that bears mention: the announcement that the Catholic 7 split from the old Big East to become the new Big East is official. What's so big about that? Because now Notre Dame has to figure out what to do, and quickly. I'd say the chances are pretty good - or very good - that they'll be in the ACC as soon as this summer. The Catholic 7 basically smoked the Big East at the negotiating table - they even got to keep their tournament units (the method used to decide how the money from the NCAA tourney gets split up) and basically only had to leave behind the departure fees the conference has been collecting. Which is admittedly a pretty copious figure. Cincy, USF, and UConn will get a nice windfall. But if it's true that the old Big East only wants $2.5 million from Notre Dame in order to leave this summer as well, then that's as good as done. Notre Dame can find that money in their couch cushions.
EDIT: right, and as I'm typing that, this happens. So yes. Say hi to the Irish, just in time for St. Paddy's Day.
The main difference is that Maryland started playing a lot worse. Or more truthfully, that they played more like Maryland is used to playing. The clock struck halftime and Nick Faust turned into a pumpkin. Justin Anderson's putback slam was a potential spark according to the announcers, and that might've been a turning point of sorts, but then, I don't think there was a particular turning point. KenPom's win probability chart for the game shows a steadyish slope in Maryland's favor for pretty much the whole first half; the second half probabilities swerve wildly back and forth and every single play is designated "high leverage." And eventually it's swerved its way to the good guys. That's a pretty accurate portrayal of how it felt to watch. Both teams just played ugly basketball for 20 minutes and UVA played less ugly than Maryland and it was all good in the end.
That speaks to the talent difference. Joe Harris had a totally pathetic shooting night (4-for-18) but the complementary players picked him up (Akil Mitchell and Mike Tobey in particular.) Our complements are better than their complements, and their star (Alex Len, I suppose, but it's hard to say Maryland really has had a lead dog this season) played even worse than Harris, because Harris really gets basketball and Len has a way to go.
(Case in point: the final play of regulation, in which Len not only allowed Mike Tobey to set up shop right next to the hoop, but then foolishly - and halfheartedly - went for the steal and found himself in no position to do anything at all.... especially defend the bucket. Tie game achieved.)
That gives UVA an ACC tournament bye for the second year in a row. Since ACC expansion to 12 teams, this is the 3rd bye that UVA has managed, and each and every time, NC State has been the team that played through to UVA's bracket. And won, I might add. I'm not so sure I wasn't pulling for NC State to beat Florida State on Saturday so that we might flip the script on them. There's probably something to be said for the momentum gained from beating the crappiest team in the conference and the rhythm from playing while your future opponent sits.
I'd've liked to have the excellent chance as well to add a neutral-site win to UVA's RPI resume. Certainly, winning on Friday would do wonders for UVA's tourney chances; I would go so far as to say that it would lock down a bid. More than for NCAA reasons, though, I just want that quarterfinal win for its own sake. I've yet to even see one as a UVA fan.
(By the way, David Teel has the obvious perspective on what Tony Bennett has achieved this year. Essentially this was a season where UVA was supposed to finish 7th, instead finished 4th, and did it with Malcolm Brogdon on ice, Jontel Evans out nine games with a broken foot, Darion Atkins ineffective for most of the ACC season with shin splints, and Mike Tobey parked for a couple weeks with mono. We had the usual boatload of health problems and hardly noticed.)
Oh, and congratulations are in order for Harris and Mitchell for making the ACC's 1st and 3rd teams respectively, and Jontel Evans for making the all-defense team. The latter is a little bit of a reputation pick, kind of the way Pudge Rodriguez kept winning Gold Gloves even as a mid-30-year-old catcher, but it's not like Evans is undeserving either. And the selections for Harris and Mitchell are spot on and exactly what they deserved. No, I don't think I'd have put Mitchell on the 2nd team. 3rd is just right; the competition is pretty good this year.
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As a bubble team, even with one foot in the tournament field, it's probably worth a look at what the rest of the bubble is up to this week. Here's a rooting guide for the conference tournaments you want to look at:
Atlantic 10: Temple did itself a big favor by beating VCU. Bad for us. They have the A-10's 3rd seed and draw the winner of UMass-George Washington on Friday. Those teams are solid NIT material and aren't in the NCAA conversation, so you'll be pulling for whichever one to soften up Temple's resume a little. La Salle is in a dicier spot: as the 4 seed, they drew the winner of Butler-Dayton, so, they drew Butler. Excellent as long as Butler takes care of business. Butler's tourney resume is ironclad, with a whole assortment of wins over really good nonconference teams (Indiana, UNC, Gonzaga) so they can't play their way out no matter what. But they can take care of La Salle for us.
Big 12: UVA is literally Lunardi's last at-large in. Baylor is the first out. They have the Big 12's 6 seed and drew Oklahoma State in the first round. You are a big Cowboys fan; a Baylor win might leapfrog them past us even if we do beat NC State. Iowa State is sort of kind of bubbly, so it wouldn't hurt if they lost to Oklahoma, either. But the biggie is Baylor. Also keep in mind that Baylor was one of the teams that Adidas outfitted with their Zubaz getup, so there's that too.
Big Ten: Iowa is kind of a fringe bubble team hanging on at the bottom. If they go on a rampage - and the Big Ten has been anything-goes this year in a good way - they could start to look interesting to the committee. After their opening-round game against Northwestern, they would face Michigan State. I'm not rooting for Sparty in any event, but you might want to.
C-USA: This conference kind of sucks, which is good news. Southern Miss is the only bubble team, and really at this point they're less of a bubble risk than a potential bid thief. They're the #2 seed in the C-USA tourney, and nothing they do there short of beating Memphis would impress the committee enough to extend a bid. And if they beat Memphis they're an autobid anyway.
Mountain West: A surprisingly tough conference this year. Boise State has a golden opportunity, playing in the 4/5 game against San Diego State. SDSU is both a very likely tourney team and kind of vulnerable in this game. Boise is who Lunardi has us playing in the NCAA play-in right now, putting them at basically the same level as us. You definitely want San Diego State to pull this one out and soften up Boise's resume a touch.
Pac-12: Practically not worth mentioning, but Arizona State is in the same position as Iowa where if they go on a rampage they could attract some of the committee's attention.
SEC: Also known as Bubbleville. The SEC has one sure thing (Florida) and a whole host of teams that'll watch the selection show with a few nerves. No fewer than four bubble teams populate the SEC tourney. As 2 and 3 seeds, respectively, Kentucky and Ole Miss are on a semifinals collision course. As 4 and 5 seeds, Alabama and Tennessee have the same fate, only in the quarterfinals. As with CUSA, the committee will not be impressed by anything these teams do prior to those games, with one exception: Missouri is a solidly-in team with a low seed (6) and in position to upend Mississippi before that Kentucky game ever happens. Your idea result (barring an upset like Arkansas over Kentucky) is for Missouri to blow through that side of the bracket and eliminate both UK and the Rebels. Barring that, at least one team will take out the other; you probably want it to be Kentucky that beats Ole Miss since Ole Miss is lurking from below while Kentucky is slightly above. That said, if you want to root for Kentucky to earn a nice NIT #1 seed, I won't blame you one bit. As for Alabama/Tennessee, it's another clear eliminator, but with a rooting interest: you actually kind of want the Vols to look like a tournament team, just to make that December win look a little shinier. Plus, since we've already played Tennessee, the committee may look to avoid that rematch, which in turn may entice them to give UVA a slightly more favorable position in the S-curve.
In sum, your rooting guide looks like this:
UMass-GWash over Temple
Butler over La Salle
Oklahoma State over Baylor
Oklahoma over Iowa State
Northwestern or Michigan State over Iowa
anyone to knock off Southern Miss
San Diego State over Boise State
Stanford or UCLA over Arizona State
Missouri over Ole Miss and Kentucky
Kentucky over Ole Miss if comes to that
Tennessee over Alabama
Left unsaid is that obviously we want to beat NC State (which could make all of this moot) and to root for the favorites in the smaller conference tourneys; teams such as Akron, Louisiana Tech, and Bucknell. (None are especially likely to steal a bid, but you don't want to take chances.)
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Since this basically just became a basketball post, I'll save baseball and lacrosse for tomorrow. But there was one development last week that bears mention: the announcement that the Catholic 7 split from the old Big East to become the new Big East is official. What's so big about that? Because now Notre Dame has to figure out what to do, and quickly. I'd say the chances are pretty good - or very good - that they'll be in the ACC as soon as this summer. The Catholic 7 basically smoked the Big East at the negotiating table - they even got to keep their tournament units (the method used to decide how the money from the NCAA tourney gets split up) and basically only had to leave behind the departure fees the conference has been collecting. Which is admittedly a pretty copious figure. Cincy, USF, and UConn will get a nice windfall. But if it's true that the old Big East only wants $2.5 million from Notre Dame in order to leave this summer as well, then that's as good as done. Notre Dame can find that money in their couch cushions.
EDIT: right, and as I'm typing that, this happens. So yes. Say hi to the Irish, just in time for St. Paddy's Day.
Saturday, March 9, 2013
game preview: Maryland
Date/Time: Sunday, March 10; 6:00
TV: ESPNUVA
Record against the Terps: 72-106
Last meeting: UVA 80, Md. 69; 2/10/13, College Park
Last game: FSU 53, UVA 51 (3/7); UNC 79, Md. 68 (3/6)
KenPom:
Tempo:
UVA: 60.3 (#339)
Md.: 67.5 (#103)
Offense:
UVA: 110.0 (#39)
Md.: 105.0 (#106)
Defense:
UVA: 88.8 (#21)
Md.: 92.8 (#47)
Pythag:
UVA: .9000 (#21)
Md.: .7805 (#67)
Projected lineups:
Virginia:
PG: Jontel Evans (4.4 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 5.0 apg)
SG: Paul Jesperson (5.2 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 1.0 apg)
SF: Joe Harris (17.1 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 2.2 apg)
SF: Justin Anderson (6.6 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 2.2 apg)
PF: Akil Mitchell (13.0 ppg, 8.9 rpg, 1.5 apg)
Maryland:
PG: Nick Faust (8.7 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 2.7 apg)
SG: Dez Wells (12.2 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 3.2 apg)
SF: Jake Layman (5.5 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 0.9 apg)
PF: James Padgett (5.7 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 0.6 apg)
C: Alex Len (11.9 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 0.8 apg)
So many games this weekend. I was debating with myself whether to use this post to preview baseball (home against Maryland), lacrosse (home against Cornell) or hoops. There's a lot riding on Sunday's regular season finale. Hoops it is. The short version of the other two: Cornell will probably kick our asses, and the baseball team should at least take two of three if not get the full sweep.
By game time, we'll know if this game means anything in the ACC seeding. Thanks to the major pooch-screwing that's taken place this past week, UVA can't get the 3rd seed I wanted, and doesn't seem likely to pull off 4th seed either. To get that bye, NC State must lose at Florida State on Saturday. If the Pack win, they'll clinch the bye and make UVA-Maryland a pointless exercise - we'll be 5th regardless. (But not pointless for Maryland - they lose the tiebreaker with FSU, so a loss sends them to 7th while a win keeps them 6th.)
If we're to be the 5th seed, then look ye to the results of the Virginia Tech-Wake Forest game. The winner is the 11th seed; the loser is 12th and would be our first-round opponent. And honestly, this might be a better outcome than 4th seed anyway. Yes, it introduces one more chance to lose, but it also gives us a great chance at a neutral-site win. (Which would be only slightly canceled out by adding a crap opponent to our RPI.) Wheeee! Rationalizing is fun! In any case, it's already time to break out the NC State tapes because we're once again on a collision course with the Pack and I'm sick of having those bastards finishing off our ACC tournament. Maybe it's time for us to come out of the play-in round and make them one-and-done instead of the other way around, which is every time we've had a tourney bye since ACC expansion.
But I get ahead of myself. The reason this Maryland game is a thing is because of the NCAA tourney implications. If you buy the line that four ACC teams have earned themselves NCAA bids and two more are on the bubble, then you know which two teams those are, and you know what a great chance this is for UVA to draw a big fat dividing line between themselves and the conference's other bubble team. Regardless of anything else, if the committee is comparing two ACC teams for one of those final slots, they're not gonna choose the one that lost twice to the other. So a win would be huge.
-- UVA on offense
Now you know what things look like when the threes aren't falling. If you just looked at the stats you'd figure that Joe Harris's sudden inefficiency has been the problem, but when Paul Jesperson's shot isn't falling, and Evan Nolte is suddenly never open (nor can he shoot when he is), and Justin Anderson seems invisible, it's no sweat keying in on Harris. I mean, he's a great player, but even Michael Jordan had Scottie Pippen to keep the defense honest.
Defenses have been anything but honest lately. Sagging a million miles off of Jontel Evans is nothing new. Maryland did it last time we met and will do it again. Florida State brought a new twist to the game by bringing the defender up and encouraging the drive, at which point they dared Evans to pass by jamming the lane. It didn't help that too often, we'd have our own player in the lane, and close enough that his defender could deny both the pass and the layup. Alex Len will no doubt be able to do the same, if Maryland uses a similar game plan.
The necessary adjustment is to space things out better than they did against FSU. I'm for trying Harris in the post, frankly (when Len is out of the game so that the defender is someone more suitable), and then when Jontel dribble-drives, have Harris book it clear and force the defense to make a choice.
Defenses are also figuring out that Nolte is no threat to drive himself, and thus are sticking to him like glue on the perimeter, denying the kick-out pass. I haven't seen Nolte used as a screener much; if getting him going is the goal, that would be a start, to see if the Hoos can force a switch into a more favorable shooting matchup.
Maryland uses such a large rotation that it's tough to get a grip on individual matchups. I can't even vouch for more than two positions of the starting lineup above; they've been very fluid in their decisions in that regard. Obviously, any time Len is in the game he's a threat to alter or block a shot. I don't think Mark Turgeon will make the same mistake he made last game in allowing himself to have his matchups dictated to him and going too small, which means more Len than last time. He's the only threat in the middle, though. Shaquille Cleare can't seem to defend without fouling, and Charles Mitchell is only a little bit better there. And as noted last time, Maryland is almost always on the wrong end of the turnover margin.
With any luck, the friendly confines of the JPJA will provide the shooting backdrop necessary to fix the awful 2-for-14 night the Hoos had in Tallahassee. (Actually, in a way I hope that's not the problem because it doesn't solve anything for the ACC tourney. One game at a time, though.)
-- UVA on defense
UVA's gameplan in the last meeting was very successful; so much so that Mark Turgeon abandoned his size advantage and tried to match small for small. That meant going right to his own weakness. Maryland typically gets awful point guard play; neither Nick Faust nor Pe'Shon Howard have been the answer. Most of the backcourt, really, is pretty turnover-prone.
As with above, it's hard to know exactly what kind of rotation to expect. Might Turgeon try to flood the frontcourt with bigs and dare Tony Bennett to put Darion Atkins on the floor? It's possible. However, Maryland will have to demand of Alex Len that he catch the ball closer to the hoop, or else watch 6'6" Justin Anderson bring the same nastily effective double-teams that he brought in the first matchup. And usually I worry that in the second game, whatever worked before won't be so effective because it's easier to make adjustments from the losing end, but UVA brings a new wrinkle too: Mike Tobey, who sat the last one out.
Fortunately, I don't really worry about Maryland's backcourt. As mentioned, the point guard play is poor because they don't have a true point guard, and only Logan Aronhalt is a three-point threat. Dez Wells is a decent wing scorer, but only inside the arc. Seth Allen is a volume guy. Maryland is pretty effective overall from two, because they can always put someone on the floor who can get to the rim - usually two or three - and also tend to have a size advantage when they want one, meaning they'll post up pretty effectively.
Good news though: the Terp offense is usually pretty bad away from home. In ACC play they've managed .9 points per possession on the road; even when they win it's not with an explosion of offense. They beat Wake at Wake recently, 67-57, and with a score like that you'd assume a pretty low-possession game. Nope: 74 possessions, one of the fastest-paced games they've played all year. So UVA should have success on the defensive end.
-- Outlook
If you want to read this final score prediction and imagine me banging my head against a brick wall til it falls down, that's fine. It's kind of the essence of being a UVA fan anyway. But as bad as the latest losses have been, you are reminded that we led them both late and lost by a combined score of three points. I told you in the FSU preview I expected the BC game to be a wake-up call and that the Hoos would show a little gumption in Tallahassee. OK, it took until like the last quarter of the game, and a few game minutes after Tony Bennett was seen on TV with maybe the first evidence I've ever seen of veins in his foreheads, but there it was.
Well, this time for real. It's Senior Night, which is mainly the Bub Evans Show since he's the only one. So how about a big game from him? I think we'll get one. And this time I'm really gonna kick that football.
Final score: UVA 62, Md. 51
Tuesday, March 5, 2013
weekend review
It's probably a good thing I never got around to writing previews of either the Boston College hoops game or the Syracuse lacrosse one. I would've predicted wins in both and then gotten blamed for the losses.
Seriously, those should've been highly winnable games. Of course, they were on the road, which in basketball these days is a deadly place to be. Even so. Syracuse looks like they'll struggle this year to get to the NCAA tournament, or would've struggled if we'd beaten them; an overtime loss to Albany is a major detriment to their outlook and should've also meant not having that hard of a time scoring on them. Again, though: the road. Especially the Carrier Dome, which is a hellhole as far as UVA lacrosse is concerned.
One thing I sort of pride myself on is looking at a game or a season or something and being able to figure out what happened. I mean, I wouldn't write this thing if I didn't think I could do that. Sometimes the reasons are coldly analytical and sometimes intangible, but usually there's something. So it shames me to say I have no good explanation whatsoever for the Boston College debacle. Feel free to accept whatever explanation you like: freshmen hitting a wall, Duke hangover, a gym with less atmosphere than a 10 AM shootaround. I mean, Jontel Evans taking a long dribble off a short basketball court did not help matters, but that's not really it. The game just....disappeared. It was there and then it wasn't. I wish I knew why, and that's probably the most frustrating thing about it.
(As for the Syracuse game, I didn't see it. It was only aired in Syracuse's markets. After several years of improvement in TV coverage of lacrosse, we've taken a step back this year to the point where after tomorrow I will have seen the Drexel and Vermont games - both for the first time - and not the Syracuse game. Next year Cuse will be under the ACC umbrella and this arrangement they have where Time Warner has right of first refusal on anything in the Carrier Dome will be gone. I hope.)
The good news is that the BC thing doesn't hurt UVA's tournament chances as much as you might think. It hurts mainly by not helping; we sure could've used that road win. But the rest of the bubble screwed itself this weekend just as badly. Baylor just lost to not-even-NIT-bound Texas, probably a hangover from their buzzer-beaten missed chance against K-State on Saturday. Ole Miss got taken down by 8-20 Mississippi State, and Tennessee got beat by Georgia. Arizona State and St. John's were losers as well. So, yes, a win on Sunday would've done wonders for separating UVA from the bubble pack a little, but as long as business is taken care of the rest of the way - that is, beat FSU and Maryland if you please - things will still be OK.
In the realm of smaller tournaments, here's the results of the weekly sim:
I've made the tiebreakers reflect reality instead of arbitrarily assigning them to the highest-rated KenPom team, which is to say that, yes, Miami has clinched the #1 seed. One thing that's not quite true is the sim's declaration that UVA has no shot at the #2 seed; it's just that that would require such an unlikely turn of events (including VT beating Duke in Cameron) as to be essentially out of the question.
UVA no longer controls its own destiny for the #3 seed, unfortunately, but if they win out, so must UNC, which means they have to beat Duke. That game is at the Dean Dome, so anything's possible, but still.
***********************************************
At least the baseball team is still undefeated. It better be, since the lineup of teams they've played is what Tim Weiser would call less than stellar. But the convincing fashion in which they've won is highly encouraging. Starting pitchers Brandon Waddell and Nick Howard both boast ERAs under 1.00, Trey Oest has pitched 11 innings of shutout ball, and the bats are mashing.
With the first ACC series coming up this weekend (at home against Maryland), impressions after the first 11 games:
-- Waddell and Howard look like Friday and Saturday guys. Waddell is an absolute revelation. His 15-K, six-inning game against Toledo was nuts. He wasn't especially hittable against Harvard, either. Oest is making a serious bid for a weekend role as well. Scott Silverstein has had really only one bad outing, but the others have had none, and Silverstein's good outings aren't as good, either. Silverstein's cruising for the weekday job.
-- That dominance aside, the bullpen is going to be massively important this year. BOC has been pulling his starters in the fifth and sixth innings for the most part. We're talking about two freshmen, one sophomore who pitched only part-time last year, and one senior with an arm that's been rebuilt more than Troy. Wisely, the coaches are guarding very heavily against any breakdowns. But it means we're going to have to have a very deep pen.
Lucky us: early returns are good there, too. Whit Mayberry's return was a very pleasant surprise, and he's pitched very well. He's been used as sort of the game's second starter, averaging more than three innings an appearance. Kyle Crockett had a little back problem to start the year, but he's come back as well, and pitched shutdown ball too. Josh Sborz appears to be taking on the closer role. David Rosenberger and Austin Young have three appearances each; Kevin Doherty and Nathaniel Abel, two each. All have done well. And better yet, folks at the games have reported - and recorded - Artie Lewicki throwing in the pen. He could be back from his Tommy John surgery in perhaps 3-6 weeks.
-- In the uniform realm, it seems UVA now has an orange VIRGINIA jersey with the fancy lettering to go along with the white one they've "always" had and the blue one they debuted not long ago. And that lettering, by the way, is a little different on all three jerseys: it's vertically arched now instead of radially arched. Uni Watch readers will get it; non-Uni Watch readers didn't give a damn in the first place.
The orange fancy-letter jersey basically replaces the one with script writing, giving UVA a little bit more of a unified look. Now there are three jerseys all with the same lettering. I still want a gray one. White pants on the road look weird. But regular gray, not that strange battleship gray thing that the Hoos debuted last year.
***********************************************
I would be remiss if I didn't mention that the swimming Hoos once again captured the ACC championships, which is a nigh-automatic event but worth your applause for the ACC dominance they've been carrying on. The men were over 150 points better than 2nd place - trust me when I say it's a lot - and the ladies were almost 300 points ahead. That gives UVA three ACC championships for the year; add the two swimming ones to womens' soccer.
The schedule this week is very Marylandish, with both baseball and basketball taking on the Terps at home. Lacrosse has Vermont on Tuesday, which is the end of the cupcake season, and Cornell on Saturday.
Seriously, those should've been highly winnable games. Of course, they were on the road, which in basketball these days is a deadly place to be. Even so. Syracuse looks like they'll struggle this year to get to the NCAA tournament, or would've struggled if we'd beaten them; an overtime loss to Albany is a major detriment to their outlook and should've also meant not having that hard of a time scoring on them. Again, though: the road. Especially the Carrier Dome, which is a hellhole as far as UVA lacrosse is concerned.
One thing I sort of pride myself on is looking at a game or a season or something and being able to figure out what happened. I mean, I wouldn't write this thing if I didn't think I could do that. Sometimes the reasons are coldly analytical and sometimes intangible, but usually there's something. So it shames me to say I have no good explanation whatsoever for the Boston College debacle. Feel free to accept whatever explanation you like: freshmen hitting a wall, Duke hangover, a gym with less atmosphere than a 10 AM shootaround. I mean, Jontel Evans taking a long dribble off a short basketball court did not help matters, but that's not really it. The game just....disappeared. It was there and then it wasn't. I wish I knew why, and that's probably the most frustrating thing about it.
(As for the Syracuse game, I didn't see it. It was only aired in Syracuse's markets. After several years of improvement in TV coverage of lacrosse, we've taken a step back this year to the point where after tomorrow I will have seen the Drexel and Vermont games - both for the first time - and not the Syracuse game. Next year Cuse will be under the ACC umbrella and this arrangement they have where Time Warner has right of first refusal on anything in the Carrier Dome will be gone. I hope.)
The good news is that the BC thing doesn't hurt UVA's tournament chances as much as you might think. It hurts mainly by not helping; we sure could've used that road win. But the rest of the bubble screwed itself this weekend just as badly. Baylor just lost to not-even-NIT-bound Texas, probably a hangover from their buzzer-beaten missed chance against K-State on Saturday. Ole Miss got taken down by 8-20 Mississippi State, and Tennessee got beat by Georgia. Arizona State and St. John's were losers as well. So, yes, a win on Sunday would've done wonders for separating UVA from the bubble pack a little, but as long as business is taken care of the rest of the way - that is, beat FSU and Maryland if you please - things will still be OK.
In the realm of smaller tournaments, here's the results of the weekly sim:
I've made the tiebreakers reflect reality instead of arbitrarily assigning them to the highest-rated KenPom team, which is to say that, yes, Miami has clinched the #1 seed. One thing that's not quite true is the sim's declaration that UVA has no shot at the #2 seed; it's just that that would require such an unlikely turn of events (including VT beating Duke in Cameron) as to be essentially out of the question.
UVA no longer controls its own destiny for the #3 seed, unfortunately, but if they win out, so must UNC, which means they have to beat Duke. That game is at the Dean Dome, so anything's possible, but still.
***********************************************
At least the baseball team is still undefeated. It better be, since the lineup of teams they've played is what Tim Weiser would call less than stellar. But the convincing fashion in which they've won is highly encouraging. Starting pitchers Brandon Waddell and Nick Howard both boast ERAs under 1.00, Trey Oest has pitched 11 innings of shutout ball, and the bats are mashing.
With the first ACC series coming up this weekend (at home against Maryland), impressions after the first 11 games:
-- Waddell and Howard look like Friday and Saturday guys. Waddell is an absolute revelation. His 15-K, six-inning game against Toledo was nuts. He wasn't especially hittable against Harvard, either. Oest is making a serious bid for a weekend role as well. Scott Silverstein has had really only one bad outing, but the others have had none, and Silverstein's good outings aren't as good, either. Silverstein's cruising for the weekday job.
-- That dominance aside, the bullpen is going to be massively important this year. BOC has been pulling his starters in the fifth and sixth innings for the most part. We're talking about two freshmen, one sophomore who pitched only part-time last year, and one senior with an arm that's been rebuilt more than Troy. Wisely, the coaches are guarding very heavily against any breakdowns. But it means we're going to have to have a very deep pen.
Lucky us: early returns are good there, too. Whit Mayberry's return was a very pleasant surprise, and he's pitched very well. He's been used as sort of the game's second starter, averaging more than three innings an appearance. Kyle Crockett had a little back problem to start the year, but he's come back as well, and pitched shutdown ball too. Josh Sborz appears to be taking on the closer role. David Rosenberger and Austin Young have three appearances each; Kevin Doherty and Nathaniel Abel, two each. All have done well. And better yet, folks at the games have reported - and recorded - Artie Lewicki throwing in the pen. He could be back from his Tommy John surgery in perhaps 3-6 weeks.
-- In the uniform realm, it seems UVA now has an orange VIRGINIA jersey with the fancy lettering to go along with the white one they've "always" had and the blue one they debuted not long ago. And that lettering, by the way, is a little different on all three jerseys: it's vertically arched now instead of radially arched. Uni Watch readers will get it; non-Uni Watch readers didn't give a damn in the first place.
The orange fancy-letter jersey basically replaces the one with script writing, giving UVA a little bit more of a unified look. Now there are three jerseys all with the same lettering. I still want a gray one. White pants on the road look weird. But regular gray, not that strange battleship gray thing that the Hoos debuted last year.
***********************************************
I would be remiss if I didn't mention that the swimming Hoos once again captured the ACC championships, which is a nigh-automatic event but worth your applause for the ACC dominance they've been carrying on. The men were over 150 points better than 2nd place - trust me when I say it's a lot - and the ladies were almost 300 points ahead. That gives UVA three ACC championships for the year; add the two swimming ones to womens' soccer.
The schedule this week is very Marylandish, with both baseball and basketball taking on the Terps at home. Lacrosse has Vermont on Tuesday, which is the end of the cupcake season, and Cornell on Saturday.
Thursday, February 28, 2013
game preview: Duke
Date/Time: Thursday, February 28; 9:00
TV: ESPN
Record against the Blue Devils: 48-115
Last meeting: Duke 61, UVA 58; 1/12/12, Charlottesville
Last game: UVA 82, GT 54 (2/24); Duke 89, BC 68 (2/24)
KenPom:
Tempo:
UVA: 60.6 (#338)
Duke: 68.5 (#62)
Offense:
UVA: 111.2 (#31)
Duke: 118.9 (#5)
Defense:
UVA: 88.8 (#21)
Duke: 89.0 (#22)
Pythag:
UVA: .9096 (#17)
Duke: .9511 (#6)
Projected lineups:
Virginia:
PG: Jontel Evans (4.5 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 5.3 apg)
SG: Paul Jesperson (5.1 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 1.0 apg)
SF: Joe Harris (16.6 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 2.2 apg)
SF: Justin Anderson (7.0 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 2.3 apg)
PF: Akil Mitchell (12.6 ppg, 8.7 rpg, 1.5 apg)
Duke:
PG: Quinn Cook (12.1 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 5.6 apg)
SG: Seth Curry (16.8 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 1.6 apg)
SG: Rasheed Sulaimon (12.4 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 2.2 apg)
PF: Josh Hairston (2.9 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 0.3 apg)
C: Mason Plumlee (17.5 ppg, 10.7 rpg, 2.0 apg)
Prime time, man. Prime time. On the eve of March - college basketball's holy month - the big fish comes to town. It's such a big game that I polished off a scotch before writing this post, the better to make it a good one. Scotch brings out the wordsmith in me. UVA's postseason aspirations don't exactly hinge on Thursday's showdown with Duke, but a win would do wonders for their positioning. At ITA this week I wrote about the ACC tournament, specifically how it would be really nice to finally have some success there, and beating Duke would put the Hoos in a nearly unbeatable position for what is turning out to be a very important race for third seed. Not only that, but it just might give Jerry Palm** a reason to reconsider his position.
-- UVA on offense
The first thing that popped off the page, in looking over Duke's defensive numbers, is this: they don't let you shoot many threes, and the ones you do shoot rarely go in. This seems odd; you'd think that going up against a guy like Mason Plumlee, you would want to stay out of the paint. Well, the actual truth is this: Plumlee cleans the boards like a fiend, but when it comes to the nuts and bolts of defense, as well as good clean shotblocking, he's kind of average. Well, better than average, but not transcendently great. The truth? We've faced better paint defenders in the past.
Tony Bennett's game plan against Georgia Tech kept Daniel Miller guessing all day long, and it resulted in him being out of position to affect a shot, and zero shot blocks to boot. Something similar will likely be run against Plumlee. Plumlee is much more athletic than Miller, so it's not necessarily guaranteed to work, but in this regard you can consider the GT game a nice little warmup for gameplanning against Plumlee.
Really, the reason teams don't shoot many threes on Duke is because their guards are quicker than almost anyone else's, and don't need to sag way off in order to prevent a drive to the lane. And they can close out well if caught slightly out of position. But UVA will almost always enjoy a huge size advantage at at least one backcourt position. Seth Curry is 6'2", Tyler Thornton is 6'1". Rasheed Sulaimon is 6'4" and will probably draw Joe Harris, lest Harris post someone up the way he repeatedly did against GT. Coach K surely watched the GT tape and is not stupid. However, Paul Jesperson and Justin Anderson are 6'6". K has started Josh Hairston lately, but with Anderson almost certain to start again, he might go with Thornton.
This would be easier for the Dookies if they had Ryan Kelly, but they don't. So UVA will almost always enjoy a matchup advantage. It might force them to play 6'8" Amile Jefferson much more than they'd like (maybe even start him) as he's really the only one they have with the physical makeup not to let an Evan Nolte or a Joe Harris let it fly over his head.
However, the quickness of Duke's guards is not to be overlooked. All three of them; Cook, Curry, and Sulaimon. They're very disruptive and if you try to get fancy they can make you regret it. UVA doesn't want to get in a late shot-clock situation because Jontel Evans doesn't have the ability to consistently get past Duke's guards and make a play with time running out. Mfon Udofia is one thing. Duke is quite another. That means UVA is going to have to walk a very fine line between patience and a sense of urgency. In other words, this is going to be a game where UVA does something and you wonder why they can't do that all the time.... and then there'll be possessions that make you wonder how we ever managed a bucket at all. Make the former happen more often than the latter and we're in good shape.
-- UVA on defense
Obviously, this is a major challenge. Duke has one of the most efficient and prolific offenses in the nation. Under no circumstances, for example, can Mason Plumlee be allowed to catch the ball close to the rim. He shoots 75% at the rim and 35% away from it. Plumlee is damn near automatic when allowed to work. Whoever's assigned to him, be it Akil Mitchell or Mike Tobey, can't let him just catch the ball in the paint because then it's over; and then, of course, it's double-team time. Josh Hairston isn't terrible or anything, but Plumlee represents Duke's only real scoring threat down low. He's all they've needed, really.
Duke is also one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country, with Cook, Curry, and Sulaimon all hitting on better than 40%. Tyler Thornton isn't chopped liver in this department either. This team can hurt you from deep. Bad.
Seth Curry, of course, is a guy who's dangerous from anywhere he feels like shooting it. One thing that makes Duke so tough to guard is that Curry's effectiveness doesn't go down as he gets farther away from the rim. He loves to drive then pull up after he's created his space, and he can catch and shoot both inside and outside the arc. Quinn Cook prefers to get to the rim if he can, which he does very well, and he's developed into a nice facilitator. Rasheed Sulaimon, meanwhile, has gotten more productive as the ACC season has worn on. Partly this is because he's taken over for Ryan Kelly as the fourth scorer, but a good freshman will start to figure out the league by mid-February and that's exactly what Sulaimon has done.
Duke's only real weakness is their depth. There's no real PG backup for Cook and there's definitely no backup at center for Plumlee. They average 33, 34 minutes for a reason. The rotation is thin, with four players - Cook, Curry, Plumlee, and Sulaimon - getting as much time as K dares, and the fifth spot being a revolving door that'll be based largely on matchups. Duke doesn't foul much (SURPRISE) or else they'd be in a lot of trouble.
The bottom line: Try and shut down Plumlee and hope their three-balling goes cold. The cold hard numbers:
Maryland: Plumlee 2-for-7, Duke .316 from deep
Miami: Plumlee 5-for-15, Duke .176 from deep
NC State: Plumlee 7-for-10, Duke .300 from deep
Those are their three losses. Only NC State let Plumlee shoot well. Seth Curry was an incredible 0-for-10 against Miami, but getting him some buckets would've only made the score respectable, not given them a win. You've got to force their game outside and hope they're having a bad night.
-- Outlook
Alright, well. Maybe it's the matchups. Maybe it's playing at home in front of a sold-out crowd. Maybe it's the scotch. Maybe it's the long streak of playing well - even in losses - that's vaulted UVA's offense up near KenPom's top 30 in the country, which has got to be their highest point ever under Tony Bennett. But I feel good about this. Call me crazy all you like. I know Duke is Duke, and I'll tell you what else: Karl Hess hasn't reffed an ACC game all week, so he's probably gonna be in the house. Just a guess. Another guess: UVA will surprise a few pundits with their offensive output and knock off big bad Duke in front of an ecstatic crowd.
Final score: UVA 70, Duke 66
**Palm's pathological insistence in not considering UVA to even be a tournament contender is one of the most laughable stories of the bracketology season. He had a podcast recently in which he haughtily summed up UVA fans' arguments for the Hoos' tourney-worthiness as "those losses don't matter." Please. I refuse to believe out of all the angry emails he got, not one of them mentioned, say, Wisconsin. But really I told you that story to tell you this one: isn't it kind of enjoyable that we Virginia fans are developing a reputation for being a prickly bunch that will flood your Twittishfeed if you cross us? Last year Mike Scott was left out of a Wooden candidate list (I can't remember whose, Andy Katz's or someone's) and the Mike Scott = Chuck Norris thing was born on the comments section. And then another ESPN writer did the same thing and the original guy tweeted him with something along the lines of "look out dude, Virginia fans are coming." Palm got so much hate mail from UVA fans that he advertised his podcast with "why Virginia fans hate me" and he's not even the first bracketologist to feel the pain; Lunardi, in the past, has also felt the need to go "ok Virginia fans, here is why I dissed your team." The difference was, Lunardi ended up being right, and Palm will end up with egg on his face. At any rate, keep it up, folks.
Tuesday, February 26, 2013
weekend review
Who says February sucks? Well, I do. I hate February. One of its few redeeming qualities is that it's the shortest month, so we get out of the misery quicker and into what is supposed to be spring. But another redeeming quality is that it's the beginning of the spring sports season and so we get to witness a lot of wins. Especially if the hoops team is playing well.
Which it so happens they are. At some point as the Hoos were busy pulling away from Georgia Tech I thought to myself, "man, this would be a blowout if we'd ever hit a damn three pointer." Not long afterwards, Taylor Barnette dropped in two three-pointers easy as you please and it was a blowout.
I've been beating the drum that UVA's suddenly dynamic offense is not dependent on the three-pointer, and there couldn't have been a better example than this Georgia Tech game. UVA's game plan took GT's shot-blocking maestro Daniel Miller totally out of the shot-blocking business - in fact, Tech only had one blocked shot all day. Akil Mitchell was astoundingly wide open underneath the rim; sometimes so much so that Jontel Evans realized it before Mitchell did. And GT lived in deathly fear of leaving three-point shooters open, allowing Evans a lot of clear and easy lanes to the rim, which he took well full advantage of.
Toss in a few bad-idea defensive switches that left Joe Harris guarded in the post by GT's rail-thin backcourt (their guards are all awfully skinny and Harris's time in the weight room has borne fruit) and UVA just had its way inside the three-point line. That the Hoos could effect such a blowout while shooting a measly .316 from three (and getting the first 0-fer from Harris in that regard since the Mississippi Valley State game) is one of the biggest reasons to be excited about this team's chances in their remaining games. And really, they were already up 14 when Barnette popped those two three-buckets, and two more came even after that point. (Mike Tobey's was the best. It's not the first he's shot this year, so we knew he could do it, but basketball is the kind of messed-up game where your center comes back from mono and is maddeningly short on all his shots so of course his longest one is nothing but net.) We've always said "man when Tony Bennett's teams learn to play offense, watch the hell out" and it's starting to come true.
If you want to start giggling like a schoolgirl during a UVA basketball game this year, wait til they have a 20-point-and-widening lead on an ACC team and then say to yourself "and next year we get Malcolm Brogdon and Anthony Gill."
***********************************************
I didn't get to watch the lacrosse game, so I only have two observations: holding Stony Brook to two second-half goals is impressive work by the defense (not that Stony Brook is a great offensive team, but they ain't VMI either) and second, end-of-quarter goals are going to kill us one day if that trend doesn't stop. Both Drexel and Stony Brook scored two goals with ten seconds or less left in a quarter.
Other than that, I got nothin'. Which leaves baseball, where every starting pitcher is apparently trying to one-up the other. Scott Silverstein rebounded nicely from last Saturday's performance to turn in over six shutout innings, and Whit Mayberry finished his game and his shutout by giving up one hit and four strikeouts in two and two-thirds.
They couldn't touch Brandon Waddell, though. Holy piss. Or Holy Toledo, I guess, since that's the official overused har-har-get-it phrase you're supposed to use when the Rockets come to town. Waddell struck out 15 batters in six innings. That is to say, only three hitters got themselves out some other way. Needless to say, Toledo did not score on him either. It is mentioned that Danny Hultzen was the last UVA pitcher to strike out 15 hitters, and I would love to go to the box score and look to see if that was done in only six innings also, but the website redesigned stripped it of most of its functionality and broke all the links. So I will check the ECU website, and learn that Hultzen did his work in seven innings. But Waddell walked a batter and Hultzen didn't. So.
Anyway, when you're comparing your freshman pitcher with two games under his belt to Danny Hultzen, you might have something special on your hands. Then again, only one UVA pitcher allowed any runs at all to Toledo, and that was (sigh) Nathan Kirby, who's going to have to get this straightened out. Actually, the folks at the game are suggesting being straightened out, as in a total lack of movement on his pitches, is why he's being knocked around. Fortunately, our other pitchers don't seem to be giving up any runs, so there's time to work on this.
***********************************************
The results of this week's season sim are below:
They are starting to reflect reality now; for example the only two teams in real life with a chance at the ACC's #1 seed are Miami and Duke - and Miami can't fall below #2 - and so the sim is duly aware of this. I've been telling you that UVA is in the driver's seat for third seed, and the sim backs me up, giving us almost a 70% chance at winning it. What surprised me most is how apparently locked in Maryland is to the 6th seed, with very little hope of moving up and not much more chance than that of moving down. FSU, Clemson, and Wake are locked in a major struggle for the 7th seed, which earns you the likely right to play Georgia Tech.
Finally, the release of the ACC schedule (do you suppose part of the reason the confernce is supposedly in trouble is because they can't get their shit together in this regard til almost March?) and the announcement of the 2015-17 home-and-home with Boise State made me realize I haven't touched the future schedules page for quite some time. So I updated that as best as I could without having any kind of a new schedule model in hand.
Which it so happens they are. At some point as the Hoos were busy pulling away from Georgia Tech I thought to myself, "man, this would be a blowout if we'd ever hit a damn three pointer." Not long afterwards, Taylor Barnette dropped in two three-pointers easy as you please and it was a blowout.
I've been beating the drum that UVA's suddenly dynamic offense is not dependent on the three-pointer, and there couldn't have been a better example than this Georgia Tech game. UVA's game plan took GT's shot-blocking maestro Daniel Miller totally out of the shot-blocking business - in fact, Tech only had one blocked shot all day. Akil Mitchell was astoundingly wide open underneath the rim; sometimes so much so that Jontel Evans realized it before Mitchell did. And GT lived in deathly fear of leaving three-point shooters open, allowing Evans a lot of clear and easy lanes to the rim, which he took well full advantage of.
Toss in a few bad-idea defensive switches that left Joe Harris guarded in the post by GT's rail-thin backcourt (their guards are all awfully skinny and Harris's time in the weight room has borne fruit) and UVA just had its way inside the three-point line. That the Hoos could effect such a blowout while shooting a measly .316 from three (and getting the first 0-fer from Harris in that regard since the Mississippi Valley State game) is one of the biggest reasons to be excited about this team's chances in their remaining games. And really, they were already up 14 when Barnette popped those two three-buckets, and two more came even after that point. (Mike Tobey's was the best. It's not the first he's shot this year, so we knew he could do it, but basketball is the kind of messed-up game where your center comes back from mono and is maddeningly short on all his shots so of course his longest one is nothing but net.) We've always said "man when Tony Bennett's teams learn to play offense, watch the hell out" and it's starting to come true.
If you want to start giggling like a schoolgirl during a UVA basketball game this year, wait til they have a 20-point-and-widening lead on an ACC team and then say to yourself "and next year we get Malcolm Brogdon and Anthony Gill."
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I didn't get to watch the lacrosse game, so I only have two observations: holding Stony Brook to two second-half goals is impressive work by the defense (not that Stony Brook is a great offensive team, but they ain't VMI either) and second, end-of-quarter goals are going to kill us one day if that trend doesn't stop. Both Drexel and Stony Brook scored two goals with ten seconds or less left in a quarter.
Other than that, I got nothin'. Which leaves baseball, where every starting pitcher is apparently trying to one-up the other. Scott Silverstein rebounded nicely from last Saturday's performance to turn in over six shutout innings, and Whit Mayberry finished his game and his shutout by giving up one hit and four strikeouts in two and two-thirds.
They couldn't touch Brandon Waddell, though. Holy piss. Or Holy Toledo, I guess, since that's the official overused har-har-get-it phrase you're supposed to use when the Rockets come to town. Waddell struck out 15 batters in six innings. That is to say, only three hitters got themselves out some other way. Needless to say, Toledo did not score on him either. It is mentioned that Danny Hultzen was the last UVA pitcher to strike out 15 hitters, and I would love to go to the box score and look to see if that was done in only six innings also, but the website redesigned stripped it of most of its functionality and broke all the links. So I will check the ECU website, and learn that Hultzen did his work in seven innings. But Waddell walked a batter and Hultzen didn't. So.
Anyway, when you're comparing your freshman pitcher with two games under his belt to Danny Hultzen, you might have something special on your hands. Then again, only one UVA pitcher allowed any runs at all to Toledo, and that was (sigh) Nathan Kirby, who's going to have to get this straightened out. Actually, the folks at the game are suggesting being straightened out, as in a total lack of movement on his pitches, is why he's being knocked around. Fortunately, our other pitchers don't seem to be giving up any runs, so there's time to work on this.
***********************************************
The results of this week's season sim are below:
They are starting to reflect reality now; for example the only two teams in real life with a chance at the ACC's #1 seed are Miami and Duke - and Miami can't fall below #2 - and so the sim is duly aware of this. I've been telling you that UVA is in the driver's seat for third seed, and the sim backs me up, giving us almost a 70% chance at winning it. What surprised me most is how apparently locked in Maryland is to the 6th seed, with very little hope of moving up and not much more chance than that of moving down. FSU, Clemson, and Wake are locked in a major struggle for the 7th seed, which earns you the likely right to play Georgia Tech.
Finally, the release of the ACC schedule (do you suppose part of the reason the confernce is supposedly in trouble is because they can't get their shit together in this regard til almost March?) and the announcement of the 2015-17 home-and-home with Boise State made me realize I haven't touched the future schedules page for quite some time. So I updated that as best as I could without having any kind of a new schedule model in hand.
Saturday, February 2, 2013
game preview: Georgia Tech
Date/Time: Sunday, February 3; 3:00
TV: ESPNUVA
Record against the Jackets: 34-38
Last meeting: UVA 70, GT 38; 1/19/12, Atlanta
Last game: UVA 58, NCSt 55 (1/29); Clem. 63, GT 60 (1/29)
KenPom:
Tempo:
UVA: 59.8 (#344)
GT: 66.7 (#165)
Offense:
UVA: 102.4 (#132)
GT: 96.4 (#224)
Defense:
UVA: 85.5 (#7)
GT: 87.0 (#17)
Pythag:
UVA: .8651 (#32)
GT: .7419 (#79)
Projected lineups:
Virginia:
PG: Jontel Evans (3.2 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 4.5 apg)
SG: Paul Jesperson (4.3 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 1.3 apg)
SF: Joe Harris (15.2 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 2.4 apg)
PF: Evan Nolte (7.0 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 1.2 apg)
PF: Akil Mitchell (12.4 ppg, 9.0 rpg, 1.8 apg)
Georgia Tech:
PG: Mfon Udofia (9.4 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 2.9 apg)
SG: Chris Bolden (6.4 ppg, 1.6 rpg, 1.3 apg)
SF: Marcus Georges-Hunt (10.5 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 1.4 apg)
PF: Robert Carter (10.1 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 0.9 apg)
C: Daniel Miller (7.9 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 2.1 apg)
UVA opened itself up to the dangerous world of possibilities this week with that win over NC State. A three-team top level of the ACC became a four-teamer, and the Hoos are positioning themselves nicely for a first-round bye in the ACC tourney. But there isn't any margin for error, and that's nicely highlighted by this Sunday's game against GT. The Jackets are kind of sneaky-decent with a very good defense and no offense whatsoever, although it hasn't shown up in the win-loss column.
-- UVA on offense
One thing that makes this game dangerous - besides that it's on the road, which is always tough - is that UVA's schedule so far has been filled with the ACC's bottom of the barrel on defense. FSU, BC, VT, NC State, etc. - they range from mediocre to crap. The ACC has four of KenPom's national top 20 defenses (UVA is one, of course) and we haven't seen any of the other three, up til now. The good news is that GT's performance in the conference hasn't been as good.
The number is probably a little inflated, in fact. (Or deflated. Whatever.) GT's best defensive stat that goes into D-rating is their free-throw defense, which they obviously have as much control over as I do the lineups. It's not all smoke and mirrors, of course. Center Daniel Miller is a top-notch shot-blocker and freshman forward Robert Carter (a five-star type) isn't bad himself. Miller against Mike Tobey could be interesting; we'll see if Miller is as good away from the basket, and Tobey's ambidextrousness could help nullify the advantage Miller brings as well. But at any rate, Miller's presence, when he's in the game, will deter guys like Jontel Evans from driving the lane and could do a number on UVA's attacking-the-basket game in general.
Actually, that's what Georgia Tech largely seeks to stop as a team, and they do a good job of it; they're 18th in the country at defending two-pointers. They don't pack it in like UVA, but they'll work to keep you in front and then try and and funnel you to Miller when you entertain thoughts of driving. When Miller comes out, though, they don't have another shot-blocking center and it changes the dynamic considerably.
Plus, they've got good rebounding size to keep you off the offensive glass. It's a good team effort; Miller, obviously, can rebound some, and Carter is big and very athletic and is the Jackets' top glass-cleaner. They lose nothing in this department when Kammeon Holsey enters the game.
UVA should work two strategies here. With Miller in the game, they'll simply have to be very patient and work for their shots. That's obviously something they have no problem doing. Tech's subs, however, can be foul-prone. Holsey and Julian Royal (in his cameos) can be encouraged to hack a shooter, and GT has a number of fringe-rotation types - Pierre Jordan, the Poole brothers - who don't see a lot of time but pick up cheapie fouls when they do. The Hoos should turn up the aggressiveness a couple notches when the subs are in.
-- UVA on defense
This could be fun. Last year the Hoos almost doubled up the Jackets on the scoreboard, holding them to their lowest point total ever in the shot clock era. Of course, parking opponents in the 30s has almost gotten routine these days, but so it goes. GT hasn't gotten that much better on offense since last year and it's costing them games; they have yet to top one point per possession in any of their ACC games.
Horrendous guard play is the reason. It's always been said the ACC is a guard's league, and GT fits that mold because they're 1-6 and their guards suck. Mfon Udofia's always been kind of a crap point guard, but he's elevated his play this season to halfway decent. His shooting has been better this year, but the ACC season is dragging him down to his accustomed levels; he's been getting to the rim, except that the much better defenses in the ACC are keeping his shots out of the hoop now. His three-point shooting is OK too, at .343, but the problem for GT is that's the best they've got.
Udofia's backups suck, though. Pierre Jordan has been displaced by Solomon Poole - Jordan hasn't played except for a zero-minute showing against Wake - and Poole has only been a tiny marginal improvement. There's little help at shooting guard either. Chris Bolden knocked Brandon Reed out of the starting lineup, but they're both interchangeably bad. Below-average three-point shooting and far too much reliance on two-point jumpers characterizes both their games. Paul Jesperson should appreciate the respite after chasing Scott Wood through five screens a minute on Tuesday. In fact, Jesperson being in the game largely for his defense, Tony Bennett might look at this matchup and feel free to go with Joe Harris at the two at times with Justin Anderson at the three.
Anderson's athleticism would be a great thing for helping out on Tech's forwards, who provide nearly all of their scoring punch. Wing Marcus Georges-Hunt and forward Robert Carter, both freshmen, are GT's top two scorers, and placing third is Kammeon Holsey - off the bench. This is another game where Bennett will likely make liberal use of the low-post double team, so as to try and force the ball back into the hands of GT's awful backcourt.
The 32-point blowout last year was chalked up largely to GT having a bad day, but I wonder. To score on this nasty, suffocating pack-line defense that we've developed here, you need some guards that can break it down. The pack-line defenders are supposed to stray outside the line generally only to defend a ballhandler; GT is the kind of team where you might not even bother doing that. If their guards want to pop off a bunch of jump shots, let them. GT is a decent offensive rebounding team, but if they get a long one, who cares - the way they're at their most dangerous is working hard down low with low-post offense and putbacks. What better matchup for the pack-line defense?
-- Outlook
I'm not worried about GT's offense and I'm only sort of worried about their defense. What worries me is the road atmosphere. Truthfully, we should've all been rooting for the Falcons to get to the Super Bowl because then nobody in the city would be paying attention to this game and we could play a nice little scrimmage in front of an empty gym. Road games have had a way of putting lids on the rim, though; I know we got some nasty good three-point shooters that actually do put a scare into opponents (the ones that are paying attention anyway - the Tobacco Road types tend to think nobody on our team is any good) but you know how that can go cold sometimes. At any rate, we don't even have to score that much because GT isn't going to.
Final score: UVA 54, GT 46
Monday, January 28, 2013
weekend review
Back and forth on the seesaw we go. If you were listening in the past, you've been prepared and you know what it means. If not, you probably think UVA is a perfectly legitimate darkhorse to make the Sweet 16, win the ACC title, and why aren't we ranked yet anyway?
I wish I could say all that stuff is true, but there's work yet to be done to scrub away the memories of ODU and some crappy conference losses. For now, though, I don't mind riding a little high on the wave of three very decisive conference wins. The outlook for this basketball team should continue to be, on balance, optimistic. I might even let off a firework or two if they win tomorrow against NC State.
Because here's the deal. So far, we've had the easiest conference schedule, if you go by KenPom's numbers. Second-easiest, if you go by RPI, with only VT having it easier. Does that mean we're gonna make up for it in the last two-thirds of the schedule? Only a little. Of the three teams considered the likeliest to win the conference, we play each of them only once, and two of them at home. It's not an easy schedule, it never is in the ACC, but the games are winnable. I don't think you can ask for much more. Except health, which we never seem to get.
Some bulletized semi-issues from the past week:
-- There is this tendency - almost a desire, actually - to believe Teven Jones is "in the doghouse" because Doug Browman is eating up his minutes. After the BC game, Tony Bennett was even asked "where's Teven?" and his answer was basically that Browman was doing a better job at defending (on-ball screens were Tony's example) and knowing the system, by which I assume he means both offense and defense. This isn't hard to believe, given all the minutes that Will Sherrill got over Tristan Spurlock because Sherrill took to the system like the fat kid to the donut buffet. Browman has been receiving Bennett's coaching for four years now; Teven, barely one. People still want to say, "no, I think Teven's in the doghouse." OK, you know best.
-- It's almost like Tony read my scouting report on VT. The keys to winning were to shut down all the players not named Erick Green and shoot a zillion open threes because Tech will let you. Boom, 11 for 23 from three-land and Green scores 35 of Tech's 58 points while their next-best option (Jarell Eddie) shoots 2 for 11. I didn't even realize Green had so damn many points, either.
-- The stat sheet from that game is fascinating. Jontel Evans had six assists and no turnovers and the Hoos as a team had 21 and 6. They had more steals (nine) than VT had assists (six, and 14 turnovers.) It's a testament to coaching that the team in the hostile road gym was far more composed and together than the team playing for their home fans. By the way, Marshall Wood played for Tech after James Johnson had called it unlikely, but it might not've been the wisest move: if he hadn't picked up his one lone turnover he would've earned himself a seven-trillion.
-- UVA's length is starting to get to the opposition. Justin Anderson is becoming the master of the fuck-yo-shot out-of-nowhere swat, and guys like Joe Harris and Evan Nolte are putting themselves on the shot-block board too. Good positioning is the key to a lot of those; Anderson's extra athleticism is what turns the mundane into the spectacular.
-- By the way, I didn't have a big problem with Anderson's end-of-game dunk against BC. Partly because it let the UVA side of the score exactly match my prediction, yes. But the main thing is, he'd've dribbled out the clock, but BC double-teamed him. Hey, you keep playing, I'll keep playing. Anderson's apology to Steve Donahue was a solid thing to do, though.
-- BC's lineup, now that I actually think about it, is full of Reggie Cleveland All-Stars. Both ways, too. How is it that Olivier Hanlon and Ryan Anderson are black and Dennis Clifford is white?
********************************************************
More from around the world. The whole world. If your world is mostly UVA sports.
-- The CDP's headline that the notion of a UVA-Oregon football series is "premature at this point" is pretty much all the confirmation you need that it's happening. Penn State backed out of our game this fall and Oregon appears to be the replacement, with a 2013 and 2016 home and home. (From the way things have been sounding, by the way, PSU still wants to play the game, just not during their crippling sanction period.) It would appear the 2013 game is in Charlottesville, which would mean eight home games and not a single OOC game away from Scott Stadium.
There's a disturbing reaction from a wing of the fanbase that claims we should be scheduling Somalia State instead, in order to puff up our record and send the message that we're a team on the rise. Nonsense. If we're so lousy that we need fluffy cotton candy to squeak into bowl eligibility at 6-6, we got bigger issues. The Hokies go 6-6 and apologize for it; we shouldn't be needing to find the shittiest teams we can just so we can brag about six wins. If we can't get bowl eligible by beating Duke, Maryland, Ball State, VMI, and two more teams out of the eight others on the schedule, the problem is probably coaching, not scheduling.
Besides, sometimes the cupcake bites back. Ask Louisiana Tech. That was supposed to be a cupcake game, when it was scheduled. I'd rather be trounced by a top-5 team than by a WAC-snack. For the record, I'd really rather have replaced PSU with a quality-but-not-dominant Big Five team like Mizzou or Vandy, but any business of shying away from Oregon is proof we need a new attitude as a fanbase.
-- The Hokies will be without starting cornerback Antone Exum for most of the offseason and maybe part of the regular season after he tore his ACL.
-- There's also an interesting CDP article today on Anthony Gill, the DeLorean in the garage, as Whitey Reid puts it. I wish by that he meant that we were going back to the Ralph Sampson years with this guy, but I think we're in for something interesting next year regardless.
I wish I could say all that stuff is true, but there's work yet to be done to scrub away the memories of ODU and some crappy conference losses. For now, though, I don't mind riding a little high on the wave of three very decisive conference wins. The outlook for this basketball team should continue to be, on balance, optimistic. I might even let off a firework or two if they win tomorrow against NC State.
Because here's the deal. So far, we've had the easiest conference schedule, if you go by KenPom's numbers. Second-easiest, if you go by RPI, with only VT having it easier. Does that mean we're gonna make up for it in the last two-thirds of the schedule? Only a little. Of the three teams considered the likeliest to win the conference, we play each of them only once, and two of them at home. It's not an easy schedule, it never is in the ACC, but the games are winnable. I don't think you can ask for much more. Except health, which we never seem to get.
Some bulletized semi-issues from the past week:
-- There is this tendency - almost a desire, actually - to believe Teven Jones is "in the doghouse" because Doug Browman is eating up his minutes. After the BC game, Tony Bennett was even asked "where's Teven?" and his answer was basically that Browman was doing a better job at defending (on-ball screens were Tony's example) and knowing the system, by which I assume he means both offense and defense. This isn't hard to believe, given all the minutes that Will Sherrill got over Tristan Spurlock because Sherrill took to the system like the fat kid to the donut buffet. Browman has been receiving Bennett's coaching for four years now; Teven, barely one. People still want to say, "no, I think Teven's in the doghouse." OK, you know best.
-- It's almost like Tony read my scouting report on VT. The keys to winning were to shut down all the players not named Erick Green and shoot a zillion open threes because Tech will let you. Boom, 11 for 23 from three-land and Green scores 35 of Tech's 58 points while their next-best option (Jarell Eddie) shoots 2 for 11. I didn't even realize Green had so damn many points, either.
-- The stat sheet from that game is fascinating. Jontel Evans had six assists and no turnovers and the Hoos as a team had 21 and 6. They had more steals (nine) than VT had assists (six, and 14 turnovers.) It's a testament to coaching that the team in the hostile road gym was far more composed and together than the team playing for their home fans. By the way, Marshall Wood played for Tech after James Johnson had called it unlikely, but it might not've been the wisest move: if he hadn't picked up his one lone turnover he would've earned himself a seven-trillion.
-- UVA's length is starting to get to the opposition. Justin Anderson is becoming the master of the fuck-yo-shot out-of-nowhere swat, and guys like Joe Harris and Evan Nolte are putting themselves on the shot-block board too. Good positioning is the key to a lot of those; Anderson's extra athleticism is what turns the mundane into the spectacular.
-- By the way, I didn't have a big problem with Anderson's end-of-game dunk against BC. Partly because it let the UVA side of the score exactly match my prediction, yes. But the main thing is, he'd've dribbled out the clock, but BC double-teamed him. Hey, you keep playing, I'll keep playing. Anderson's apology to Steve Donahue was a solid thing to do, though.
-- BC's lineup, now that I actually think about it, is full of Reggie Cleveland All-Stars. Both ways, too. How is it that Olivier Hanlon and Ryan Anderson are black and Dennis Clifford is white?
********************************************************
More from around the world. The whole world. If your world is mostly UVA sports.
-- The CDP's headline that the notion of a UVA-Oregon football series is "premature at this point" is pretty much all the confirmation you need that it's happening. Penn State backed out of our game this fall and Oregon appears to be the replacement, with a 2013 and 2016 home and home. (From the way things have been sounding, by the way, PSU still wants to play the game, just not during their crippling sanction period.) It would appear the 2013 game is in Charlottesville, which would mean eight home games and not a single OOC game away from Scott Stadium.
There's a disturbing reaction from a wing of the fanbase that claims we should be scheduling Somalia State instead, in order to puff up our record and send the message that we're a team on the rise. Nonsense. If we're so lousy that we need fluffy cotton candy to squeak into bowl eligibility at 6-6, we got bigger issues. The Hokies go 6-6 and apologize for it; we shouldn't be needing to find the shittiest teams we can just so we can brag about six wins. If we can't get bowl eligible by beating Duke, Maryland, Ball State, VMI, and two more teams out of the eight others on the schedule, the problem is probably coaching, not scheduling.
Besides, sometimes the cupcake bites back. Ask Louisiana Tech. That was supposed to be a cupcake game, when it was scheduled. I'd rather be trounced by a top-5 team than by a WAC-snack. For the record, I'd really rather have replaced PSU with a quality-but-not-dominant Big Five team like Mizzou or Vandy, but any business of shying away from Oregon is proof we need a new attitude as a fanbase.
-- The Hokies will be without starting cornerback Antone Exum for most of the offseason and maybe part of the regular season after he tore his ACL.
-- There's also an interesting CDP article today on Anthony Gill, the DeLorean in the garage, as Whitey Reid puts it. I wish by that he meant that we were going back to the Ralph Sampson years with this guy, but I think we're in for something interesting next year regardless.
Saturday, January 26, 2013
game preview: Boston College
Date/Time: Saturday, January 26; 1:00
TV: RSN, ESPN3
Record against the Eagles: 8-6
Last matchup: UVA 66, BC 49; 1/26/12, Charlottesville
Last game: UVA 74, VT 58 (1/24); Md. 64, BC 59 (1/22)
KenPom:
Tempo:
UVA: 59.6 (#345)
BC: 64.9 (#244)
Offense:
UVA: 103.3 (#114)
BC: 106.1 (#71)
Defense:
UVA: 85.9 (#10)
BC: 101.4 (#196)
Pythag:
UVA: .8689 (#32)
BC: .6143 (#124)
Projected lineups:
Virginia:
PG: Jontel Evans (3.1 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 4.0 apg)
SG: Paul Jesperson (4.4 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 1.2 apg)
SF: Joe Harris (15.3 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 2.3 apg)
PF: Evan Nolte (7.1 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 1.3 apg)
PF: Akil Mitchell (12.1 ppg, 9.0 rpg, 1.8 apg)
Boston College:
PG: Joe Rahon (10.4 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 3.8 apg)
SG: Lonnie Jackson (10.3 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 2.1 apg)
SG: Olivier Hanlon (13.9 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 2.6 apg)
SG: Patrick Heckmann (8.2 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 1.7 apg)
PF: Ryan Anderson (16.5 ppg, 9.4 rpg, 1.5 apg)
Last night can only be called a rousing success; the truth is there's no better place to win a game than Cassell Coliseum. Oh, you have to defend your home court and win for your fans, to be sure, but there's something extra-special satisfying in sending a full house of Hokies (the ones that aren't Tar Heel fans) home muttering about football season, which too bad for them is eight months away.
There's not much time to enjoy it, though. The turnaround time is something less than 40 hours, and Boston College shows up in the JPJA. BC had some stumbles in the non-conference schedule and sports an ugly ACC record, but the scores of their conference games could mean they're a more dangerous team than they look.
-- UVA on offense
It's too bad Darion Atkins is likely to once again sit out, because Steve Donahue has been employing a four-guard lineup of late, and I'd like to see one of them try and guard Atkins and/or Akil Mitchell. But we're here for the game that will be played on the court, not in my fantasies. The four-guard lineup may be just the thing for defending UVA's recent three-point barrage; the truth is that Harris and Nolte basically comprise the taller half of a four-guard lineup themselves.
However, like VT, BC is a team unlikely to create many turnovers. UVA did a great job taking care of the ball against Tech, because the Hokies didn't hardly ever get into the passing lanes. BC is similarly weak in the steals department, and except for when backup center Dennis Clifford gets into the game, they aren't a shot-blocking team either. They'll try to keep you in front of them and they don't play overly aggressive. It keeps them out of foul trouble, but teams are shooting three-pointers quite well against them.
BC is actually an excellent defensive rebounding team, thanks almost entirely to the sterling efforts of Ryan Anderson, the only forward in the starting lineup, as well as Clifford. Both are terrific on the boards, particularly Anderson; were they not, BC probably would go from the top to the bottom of the defensive rebounding percentage barrel in a heartbeat. Akil Mitchell could have some room to work against Anderson, though. He has about 15 pounds on Anderson and should BC try to double him, Mitchell will probably find it easier than usual to pass out of it. If Anderson is assigned to Mike Tobey, Tobey will again look to shoot jump shots over his head the way he's been doing with ever-increasing confidence lately. Clifford is another matter; he's a seven footer and a quality defender, likely to neutralize whoever he guards and give lane drivers a tough time.
The bottom line, more or less, is that UVA will again have room to shoot the threes that've carried them to victory recently. And as a bonus, they should be able to supplement that with some work in the post. The 1.2 points-per-possession output in the VT game was probably about the best we'll see all year, but BC might also leave the Hoos some room to operate.
-- UVA on defense
The Eagles' offense is surprisingly decent for a team struggling to keep its head above water. I said in their season preview that they would be improved but their record might not show it, and the results so far reflect that pretty well. They kept pace with NC State's powerful offense and put a fright into Miami as well; they had mid-second-half leads in both games before succumbing to a talent deficit.
I also said in that preview that Lonnie Jackson might be shooting his way out of a job. He shot his way back in since I said that. In the last six games he's been hitting three-pointers at a .564 clip, and he's boosted his percentage from .273 then to .400 now. Freshman Patrick Heckmann has meanwhile cooled off, with his success rate dropping from over .500 to .355 now.
It's important to look at those percentages because the Eagles will attempt a lot of threes. All four of their starting guards have taken four a game, or closer to six in Jackson's case. Over 40% of BC's shots are threes, which puts them in the top 25 in the country in that respect. They also draw a ton of fouls; that again is Ryan Anderson's doing, along with quick-moving freshman guard Olivier Hanlon. Anderson has blossomed as a go-to scorer, displaying a wide array of post moves and making himself incredibly difficult to guard. Hanlon has earned multiple selections as the ACC's freshman of the week, and despite a very modest three-point percentage, is BC's second-leading scorer and has also proven he can fill it in a variety of ways.
UVA will likely use the low-post double team copiously on Anderson. Mitchell will be an interesting matchup on him; his length and athleticism will make for some interesting battles. Anderson likes to fall away as much as he likes to attack the rim. One major advantage the Hoos will have everywhere else, though, is size. Especially when the four guards are in, UVA will be much bigger and longer at most positions; the exception is point guard, where Jontel Evans isn't usually bigger than anyone. But Joe Rahon is a freshman and Evans a senior, and Rahon has done a nice job this year but Evans will be a new experience for him.
This could be a dangerous matchup; Steve Donahue is instilling some decent basketball into the Eagles, who do an excellent job of taking care of the ball and look like they've developed some nice offensive cohesion. But they're one of the few conference teams less experienced than UVA, playing on the road on Saturday, and Tony's defense has been a well-oiled machine lately.
-- Outlook
I can't believe I'm about to say this, since we have such a freshman-powered team and half a frontcourt, but experience and size ought to tip the game in UVA's favor. The former mainly because it's on the road, and the latter because UVA has very deceptive size; big guards that can match up with BC's four (normal-sized) guards lineup. At some point this season Boston College will upend someone who isn't paying attention. They're 1-4, yes, but thanks to four very close losses and a demolition win over VT, their total point margin in conference play is only -4. Only NC State has generated better conference-only offensive efficiency than the Eagles. That said, the Hoos are on a roll, and the short layoff is usually a good thing when you're on a roll. I like UVA to keep up the good work.
Final score: UVA 65, BC 55
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