It wasn't a perfect weekend. A perfect weekend would've involved a tidy clean sweep of Florida State, and the lacrosse team's win would've earned a trophy instead of a small shred of bragging rights.
I'll take it, though. I will always take it. Especially when two more ACC trophies are added to the case; the tennis teams brought home the hardware this weekend. I was honestly surprised to learn the women's tennis team had never won an ACC title before. I'd have guessed they had a few by now, if you'd asked. On the plus side, getting a first-time ACC title means there are only four teams at UVA that have never won an ACC title: volleyball, field hockey, and mens' and womens' golf.
That brings our title count to four (men's basketball, women's swimming & diving, and the two tennis team) this season, with a fully-expected rowing title yet to come and obvious contention for a baseball title still in the works. We won't catch Florida State this year, as they have seven championships, but c'mon - three of them are basically the same damn team (women's cross country and indoor and outdoor track.) No fair that we don't ever get to count indoor tennis.
****************************************************
And hey, at least we scored bragging rights over the Noles in baseball this weekend. Nick Howard is the star of the weekend as far as I'm concerned. Seven batters faced, seven strikeouts. That's just rude. Howard turned some perfectly good hitters totally upside-down; the Noles didn't even look remotely good against him. One of the better at-bats was turned in by Jameis Winston on Friday. When Jameis Winston looks like the best hitter of the inning, the other guys did something really wrong. And Winston got this distinction by being one of the few to actually foul off a pitch. Then he watched dumbfounded as a waist-high, straight-line fastball zipped merrily across the middle of the plate for strike three. The other guys brought their Swiss cheese bats to the plate.
At this point it's hard to make a case for anyone else but Howard as the top closer in the country. 15 saves - our bats have been just good enough to give him lots of chances and just bad enough to give him lots of chances. But the really nasty stuff: 43 Ks against 6 BBs. And he's been getting better as the season goes on. Nate Kirby is doing a ridiculous job, too, and Brandon Waddell - who started the season by giving up 6 runs in 4 1/3 - has worked his ERA all the way down to 2.90.
The weekend finally convinced Collegiate Baseball to stop being the last holdout among the five polls/rankings, and give UVA the #1 nod. Five rankings, five #1's for UVA. #1 in the country - and currently sitting in the ACC's 3rd seed for the tournament. No further proof is required for the fact that having divisions for baseball is monumentally stupid.
****************************************************
I turned the lacrosse game off in disgust during the second quarter, only to be overcome by curiosity, and turned it back on at some point midway through the third. That second period was perfectly emblematic of why this team has struggled. The first half, really. Matt Barrett couldn't stop a beanbag. Mick Parks gave up yet another faceoff win so clean that UNC's R.G. Keenan had but to run straight ahead til he arrived at the doorstep. And on one UNC goal - their second of the game, I think - a UVA defender watched the eventual scorer catch the pass, and then peeled off for parts unknown while the ballcarrier (Pat Foster, if memory serves) strode easy as you please into the vacated spot and potted the easiest goal of his life.
This is to say nothing of the pitiful clearing game. Awful decisions and half-assed passes turned the clearing game into a sloppy mess. One failed clear was an inexcusable 30-second violation - probably brought about by doing too much of a 180 from recklessness to an overabundance of caution. Fortunately, the Heels were even worse, particularly in the very crucial fourth quarter where they cleared two of six attempts.
The fourth also happened to be Barrett's time. He saved only 45% all day, but 100% when it mattered. Consistency is not Barrett's middle name, but there's a chance yet that we can be going into the 2018 season going "whatever will we do without that guy?"
I really think this team has a higher ceiling than it's shown this year. And effort is not the problem. This team has out-ground-balled everyone this year; in fact, they lead the nation in ground balls per game. Joseph Lisicky gets a lot of well-deserved attention for sucking up ground balls but it's not just grinding long-stick guys; that was UVA's leading scorer Mark Cockerton diving into the scrum for a loose ball, in front of an empty UNC net, and coming out with the crucial two-goal lead.
No, this team's problem is between the ears; they keep shooting themselves in the foot with mental breakdowns in all facets of the game. They shoot more with no backup behind the net than any team I've seen - and the X man will hang out blissfully by the side of the net when the shooter is winding up, instead of getting a head start on the backup. Several times a game I'll wish I could get inside the head of a defender and find out why he didn't consider the guy with the ball worth defending. And even when they were playing well against UNC, the passing was rather less than crisp. Either end of a pass might be the one to screw up the next one - maybe it goes sailing over someone's head, maybe it just gets ignored by the recipient. Eight seconds to go in a game where you have the ball and a two-goal lead, and you manage a giveaway. Silly.
This team would be a legit as hell title contender if they could just deal with some of this low-hanging fruit. They could very well find themselves in the Final Four - the draw I gave them in this week's bracketology happens to be an awfully favorable one, about as good as they could ever hope for, and set up beautifully for a potential trip to Baltimore. But they can't beat four good teams in a row with their brains working the way they do now.
(Speaking of bracketology: I've finished a project of mine that perfectly calculates every team's RPI and all the RPI-related factors that go into bracketology too. All I have to input is wins and losses. Put in the results of one game and it calculates every change to every RPI in the whole system. What does this mean? Faster bracketology; I don't have to wait for the Internet to update itself before I can start. Now that it's conference tournament week I plan on pushing out an update on Thursday and then every day unti Selection Sunday.
Even better: I should be able to adapt the thing for basketball and baseball and do my own bracketology for those sports, too. Baseball won't be ready in time for this year's tourney, but next year, wait and see.)
****************************************************
I guess we have to spoil things by finishing up with football. It's attrition season, and you expect to wring your hands occasionally when someone with untapped potential transfers out or washes out, what have you, but you don't really ever expect your top passing-game weapon to say see ya later.
Jake McGee's transfer comes as a surprise to us in the outside world, but word floats around the tubes that he and Tom O'Brien got along like Tom and Jerry from day one, and that just maybe that move to "TE/WR" was mostly about having McGee get his coaching from Marques Hagans instead of TOB. That is rumor, but it passes my smell test.
There's no way to put a positive spin on any aspect of it. Demeitre Brim also announced his transfer this past week, to Central Florida, and that was easily explainable by the fact that he's a Sam backer and nothing even remotely like the kind of Sam backer that Jon Tenuta is using. Is it a shame we couldn't finagle his considerable athletic potential into usefulness on the field? Sure. But it's also a cost of doing business.
McGee, on the other hand - they're selling his jersey FFS. He's plastered all over all kinds of advertising and literature. That the coaches allowed that to happen despite knowing he might leave is at a minimum a lousy grasp of PR; that McGee made it plain that he thinks Tight End U can't do a good job of preparing him for the NFL, that is just about as bad a piece of pub as we could've asked for.
The passing game is now short a terrific mid-range and red-zone option, and McGee's receiving skill set will not be easily replaced. Perhaps more importantly, Mike London's regime just took a major blow to the solar plexus of its image.
Showing posts with label mcgee. Show all posts
Showing posts with label mcgee. Show all posts
Monday, April 28, 2014
Tuesday, November 19, 2013
the recruit: Evan Butts
Name: Evan Butts
Position: TE
Hometown: Philly-ish, PA
School: Episcopal Academy
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 225
24/7: 85, three stars; #44 TE, PA #32
ESPN: 75, three stars; #27 TE-Y, PA #31, East #141
Rivals: 5.5, three stars; PA #31
Scout: three stars; #40 TE
Other offers: Boston College, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Navy, South Florida, Ohio, Army, Temple, Buffalo, UMass, Florida Atlantic, assorted FCS
The last time the coaching staff landed a dedicated tight end - as opposed to an athlete later converted into one - was nearly four years ago. That was when Zach Swanson, whom Stanford had more or less dropped a month or so before Signing Day, was hunting around for a landing spot and found a mutual fit at Virginia. So it wasn't really even totally on purpose, what with Mike London being less than two months into the job.
So for a school that prides itself somewhat on turning out high-level tight ends, it's nice to find one that's not a converted something else. Evan Butts plays defensive end as well for Episcopal, no less than you'd expect from a best-athlete-on-the-team type and a guy with a tight end build. He's kind of a one-trick pony at DE, though; nearly all his highlights showed the same move. Tight end it is.
Butts's strength, really, is his strength, which was his move at DE (shove the blocker backwards enough to create a space to get around toward the ball, a thing which won't work in college) and which should serve him well as a blocker on offense. ESPN says he's not a fast player and that's backed up by those highlights, which almost never have him breaking away from the pack. He's very comfortable in a crowd, though, with just enough quicks to separate enough to get open, and he's kind of gangly, which helps him reach for slightly-off passes and compensates somewhat for the fact that he's only 6'4", slightly on the short side for a TE.
The guru rankings here are remarkably consistent with each other and with Butts's offer list. What you see there is way on the high end of the consistency scale. Butts toured some of the various program camps this past summer and earned a couple offers that way; BC, for one. UVA's camp was the final stop on that tour. Not that surprising, when you think about it; Episcopal is part of the Inter-Academic League in the Philly suburbs, an association at least as well known for lacrosse talent as football. UVA is a destination school to a lot of students there, and the schools are all top-notch private schools.
So unlike many recruits, we ought to be able to pretty easily tell what we're getting here. A future all-ACC player - probably not. A future dependable cog - most probably. Zach Swanson's career path is a terrific guide, albeit hopefully without the ill-advised detour to fullback. Swanson also came in at 225 pounds and needed the first three years of his career to add the necessary bulk for TE. He's 30 pounds heavier now, and is easily the team's best blocking tight end as well as a perfectly legitimate receiving threat with 17 catches, a little under two per game.
It remains to be seen how Rob Burns and Mario Nixon develop at tight end, but since Swanson and Jake McGee are juniors, Butts is easily redshirtable. You never know anymore the way the coaches do things, but it seems likely. Afterwards Butts's playing time will probably depend on his physical development, and since 30 pounds don't come quickly, we may need to wait a little. What will get Butts on the field faster than his tight end skills is his skill as a long-snapper, something he does very well. Matt Fortin is a senior next year along with McGee and Swanson, so even if Butts doesn't play much on offense as a redshirt freshman, he'll have a role, and an important one, and better yet, the coaches don't have to fill a roster spot with a guy who can long-snap and long-snap only.
Position: TE
Hometown: Philly-ish, PA
School: Episcopal Academy
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 225
24/7: 85, three stars; #44 TE, PA #32
ESPN: 75, three stars; #27 TE-Y, PA #31, East #141
Rivals: 5.5, three stars; PA #31
Scout: three stars; #40 TE
Other offers: Boston College, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Navy, South Florida, Ohio, Army, Temple, Buffalo, UMass, Florida Atlantic, assorted FCS
The last time the coaching staff landed a dedicated tight end - as opposed to an athlete later converted into one - was nearly four years ago. That was when Zach Swanson, whom Stanford had more or less dropped a month or so before Signing Day, was hunting around for a landing spot and found a mutual fit at Virginia. So it wasn't really even totally on purpose, what with Mike London being less than two months into the job.
So for a school that prides itself somewhat on turning out high-level tight ends, it's nice to find one that's not a converted something else. Evan Butts plays defensive end as well for Episcopal, no less than you'd expect from a best-athlete-on-the-team type and a guy with a tight end build. He's kind of a one-trick pony at DE, though; nearly all his highlights showed the same move. Tight end it is.
Butts's strength, really, is his strength, which was his move at DE (shove the blocker backwards enough to create a space to get around toward the ball, a thing which won't work in college) and which should serve him well as a blocker on offense. ESPN says he's not a fast player and that's backed up by those highlights, which almost never have him breaking away from the pack. He's very comfortable in a crowd, though, with just enough quicks to separate enough to get open, and he's kind of gangly, which helps him reach for slightly-off passes and compensates somewhat for the fact that he's only 6'4", slightly on the short side for a TE.
The guru rankings here are remarkably consistent with each other and with Butts's offer list. What you see there is way on the high end of the consistency scale. Butts toured some of the various program camps this past summer and earned a couple offers that way; BC, for one. UVA's camp was the final stop on that tour. Not that surprising, when you think about it; Episcopal is part of the Inter-Academic League in the Philly suburbs, an association at least as well known for lacrosse talent as football. UVA is a destination school to a lot of students there, and the schools are all top-notch private schools.
So unlike many recruits, we ought to be able to pretty easily tell what we're getting here. A future all-ACC player - probably not. A future dependable cog - most probably. Zach Swanson's career path is a terrific guide, albeit hopefully without the ill-advised detour to fullback. Swanson also came in at 225 pounds and needed the first three years of his career to add the necessary bulk for TE. He's 30 pounds heavier now, and is easily the team's best blocking tight end as well as a perfectly legitimate receiving threat with 17 catches, a little under two per game.
It remains to be seen how Rob Burns and Mario Nixon develop at tight end, but since Swanson and Jake McGee are juniors, Butts is easily redshirtable. You never know anymore the way the coaches do things, but it seems likely. Afterwards Butts's playing time will probably depend on his physical development, and since 30 pounds don't come quickly, we may need to wait a little. What will get Butts on the field faster than his tight end skills is his skill as a long-snapper, something he does very well. Matt Fortin is a senior next year along with McGee and Swanson, so even if Butts doesn't play much on offense as a redshirt freshman, he'll have a role, and an important one, and better yet, the coaches don't have to fill a roster spot with a guy who can long-snap and long-snap only.
Thursday, October 31, 2013
game preview: Clemson
Date/Time: Saturday, November 2; 3:30
TV: ESPN
Record against the Tigers: 8-37-1
Last meeting: Clem. 34, UVA 21; 11/21/09, Clemson
Last weekend: GT 35, UVA 25; Clem. 40, Md. 27
Line: Clemson by 18
Injury report:
Virginia:
OUT - OL George Adeosun, CB Maurice Canady, CB Demetrious Nicholson, TE Mario Nixon, DT Brent Urban, S Wil Wahee
DOUBTFUL - none
QUESTIONABLE - none
PROBABLE - OG Conner Davis, K Ian Frye
Clemson:
OUT - DB MacKensie Alexander, OL Patrick DeStefano, DT Kevin Dodd, RB Tyshon Dye, LB Kellen Jones, WR Charone Peake, CB Garry Peters, DT Carlos Watkins
DOUBTFUL -
QUESTIONABLE -
PROBABLE - RB Zac Brooks
What were you doing in 1999? I'd guess your life was a lot different back then. Three presidential terms have come and gone since then, and then some. According to my high school yearbook, the Sega Dreamcast came out then. This was 14 years ago. I bring this up because the next time Clemson visits Charlottesville will be 14 years from now: 2027. That's when V for Vendetta takes place FFS. This is the brave new, stupid ACC.
Of course, Clemson might be a poor example of a team we should play more often, given the sound thrashing they're about to lay on our football team. This week will put a merciful end to the season, afte which point the team will perhaps be playing for nothing more than to save their coach's job.
-- UVA run offense vs. Clemson run defense
Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 144 carries, 614 yards, 4.3 ypc, 9 TDs
Khalek Shepherd: 38 carries, 248 yards, 6.5 ypc, 1 TD
UVA offense:
162.63 yards/game, 3.86 yards/attempt
92nd of 125 (national), 11th of 14 (ACC)
Clemson defense:
144.13 yards/game, 3.79 yards/attempt
41st of 125 (national), 7th of 14 (ACC)
The likely return of Conner Davis is a small piece of good news for a running game that proved mostly impotent against Georgia Tech. UVA has tried a lot of combinations, but this one, with Davis at LG and Whitmire at RG, has proven to be, on balance, the best of an unpalatable array of choices.
The drawback is that Luke Bowanko's snap issues are returning. Part of the reason he makes a better guard than center is because of his erratic shotgun snaps, which tend to be high and throw off the timing of the read-option as well as just plain regular runs out of the pistol. When your main back is Kevin Parks, whose acceleration isn't top-level stuff, it makes everything run a tick slow, and that in turn just piles up the issues on an offensive line that has a tough time as it is with holding blocks for long enough.
Adding to the difficulties is that bane of the UVA offense, a quality defensive tackle. For Clemson it's Grady Jarrett. They also have a pair of excellent linebackers in Spencer Shuey and Stephone Anthony, the two leading tacklers. Two-thirds of the way through the season and they already have 78 and 80 tackles, respectively. I'm less impressed by SLB Quandon Christian, and I think UVA would have more success running to that side than the other. But Clemson's defensive line is more than good enough to cover any weaknesses among the linebackers - not that there are many.
Other than an inexplicable meltdown against Syracuse and the opening game against Georgia, teams haven't been real successful running the ball against Clemson. It's unlikely ours is the team to break that trend. I don't think Parks will manage more than 60 yards, and the rest of the running attack will fall in place behind.
-- UVA pass offense vs. Clemson pass defense
Quarterback:
David Watford: 191/314, 60.8%; 1,715 yards, 7 TDs, 9 INTs; 5.46 yards/attempt
Top receivers:
Jake McGee: 31 rec., 265 yards, 2 TDs
Kevin Parks: 29 rec., 285 yards, 1 TD
UVA offense:
219.9 yards/game, 5.3 yards/attempt
124th of 125 (national), 14th of 14 (ACC)
Clemson defense:
230.6 yards/game, 7.4 yards/attempt
81st of 125 (national), 11th of 14 (ACC)
Why is Clemson looking upwards in the Atlantic Conference race? Because of the 444 yards they gave up to Jameis Winston. David Watford isn't Winston and has nothing close to the surrounding talent, but this remains the weaker point of Clemson's defense.
Actually, it doesn't mean they're not dangerous, though. Clemson's 29 sacks are tops in the country, and their 13 picks are tied for 8th. Cornerbacks Bashaud Breeland and Darius Robinson have three picks apiece, and speed-rushing DE Vic Beasley has ten sacks. GT's Jeremiah Attaochu abused right tackle Eric Smith, sometimes simply by juking him without ever being engaged in a block, and Smith will have his hands full again; no doubt Clemson paid attention to the film and won't bother lining up Beasley across from Morgan Moses.
Clemson, though, is also prone to allowing the big play. They sit near the bottom of the national rankings in this regard. That means if UVA is even going to keep this thing close(ish), Tim Smith needs to repeat his performance of last week. Having Jake McGee back will be a big plus, but Watford needs multiple options to stretch the field or there just won't be any point to this at all. It's Smith who has emerged as a downfield threat - not in terms of the one big lightning strike, but he can create 20, 25-yard plays. Consistency is a problem, of course, as he's yet to really do anything two games in a row this year.
Watford is likely to have a tough time with this pass rush. Consider it experience for the VT game. Clemson averages more than 3.5 sacks a game, so predicting three, as I was planning on doing, starts to look pretty weak; let's say four. I think Watford can continue to top 200 yards and the Hoos should be able to move the ball in fits and starts, but expecting a repeat of last week would be too much.
-- Clemson run offense vs. UVA run defense
Top backs:
Roderick McDowell: 119 carries, 607 yards, 5.1 ypc, 2 TDs
Zac Brooks: 47 carries, 234 yards, 5.0 ypc, 2 TDs
Clemson offense:
175.88 yards/game, 3.94 yards/attempt
87th of 125 (national), 9th of 14 (ACC)
UVA defense:
182.0 yards/game, 4.56 yards/attempt
84th of 125 (national), 13th of 14 (ACC)
Tailback Roderick McDowell is a decent back, but let's face it, even as the starter he's essentially Tajh Boyd's change of pace. A great deal of the Clemson run game is the read-option run between Boyd and McDowell, and Boyd has 72 carries for 334 yards once you take away sacks.
In that sense it's a good deal for us that the defense has been seeing the read-option in practice. The basics of defending it are to do one of two things: have your defensive tackle kick some ass while the DE pops out to take the QB (but there's no Urban) or crash the DE to take the RB and "scrape" the linebacker outside. I have, however, no idea what Jon Tenuta is doing with linebackers these days, given the strange appearance of this week's depth chart.
One thing seems sure: Max Valles as anything other than a situational pass-rusher seems like a bad idea. Valles is inexperienced and it showed badly against GT; against the read-option I'd rather stick with the experienced and trustworthy Romero and Coley. And if Tenuta blitzes up the middle, that's great except that Boyd will probably just keep and head outside for a big gain.
Clemson will get their yards here; they've been pretty successful all season without being spectacular. Steady is the word, as the run game gets its share of room just from teams hanging back, understandably scared of the pass. I'm not too worried about there being a big play here, but there's no reason the Tigers shouldn't just continue to be able to do what they do, which is pick up five yards whenever they want to.
-- Clemson pass offense vs. UVA pass defense
Quarterback:
Tajh Boyd: 168/263, 63.9%; 2,243 yards, 17 TDs, 5 INTs; 8.53 yards/attempt
Top receivers:
Sammy Watkins: 58 rec., 813 yards, 5 TDs
Adam Humphries: 30 rec., 368 yards, 2 TDs
Clemson offense:
319.6 yards/game, 8.1 yards/attempt
36th of 125 (national), 7th of 14 (ACC)
UVA defense:
211.8 yards/game, 6.6 yards/attempt
39th of 125 (national), 7th of 14 (ACC)
No Nicholson, no Canady, going against Sammy Watkins and Tajh Boyd. There's no need to overthink this.
-- Favorability ratings
UVA run offense: 2.5
UVA pass offense: 3.5
UVA run defense: 3.5
UVA pass defense: 1
Average: 2.63
-- Outlook
For the cliff notes, just reread the pass defense segment. I cannot think of a single reason this should go well. It's possible to look at UVA and see a team scrapping for a win and continuing to improve but tragically coming up short each time. It's also possible to see a reeling, injury-riddled, often undisciplined team with unsolvable weaknesses, going up against a legitimate top-ten team in the country. The improvement might just result in one win, maybe against Carolina or VT's putrid offense. For now, Tivo will come in handy should I want to see any play in particular; I'll be watching Michigan-MSU.
-- Prediction summary
-- Kevin Parks fails to reach 60 yards on the ground.
-- David Watford passes for over 200 yards.
-- Watford is sacked at least four times.
-- Sammy Watkins needs 187 yards to reach 1,000 for the season. He'll get them all Saturday.
Final score: Clemson 51, UVA 17
-- Rest of the ACC
Virginia Tech @ Boston College - 12:00 - Any team that plays a decently disciplined defense against VT is an upset risk - and BC does.
North Carolina @ NC State - 12:30 - UNC is 2-5, and could easily finish the regular season 7-5.
Wake Forest @ Syracuse - 12:30 - A likely Bowl Eligibility Bowl in the Atlantic.
Pittsburgh @ Georgia Tech - 7:00 - GT can clinch a postseason trip.
Miami @ Florida State - 8:00 - Possible preview of the ACCCG.
Byes: Maryland, Duke
Friday, October 25, 2013
game preview: Georgia Tech
Date/Time: Saturday, October 26; 12:30
TV: ACC Net., ESPN3
Record against the Jackets: 17-17-1
Last meeting: GT 56. UVA 20; 9/15/12, Atlanta
Last weekend: Duke 35, UVA 22; GT 56, Cuse 0
Line: GT by 10
Injury reports:
Virginia:
OUT - OL George Adeosun, CB Maurice Canady, CB Demetrious Nicholson, TE Mario Nixon, WR E.J. Scott, DT Brent Urban, S Wil Wahee
DOUBTFUL - WR Kyle Dockins
QUESTIONABLE - G Conner Davis, K Ian Frye, TE Jake McGee
PROBABLE - LB Daquan Romero
Georgia Tech:
OUT - WR Anthony Autry, OL Morgan Bailey, OL Ray Beno, C Freddie Burden, S Jamal Golden, DT Shawn Green, LB Anthony Harrell, OL Errin Joe
DOUBTFUL - None
QUESTIONABLE - None
PROBABLE - None
Yeah, Paul Johnson, I bet you have nobody banged up in the slightest aside from the guys who'll miss the game. Not a single tweaked ankle, twinged shoulder, or sore knee. Somebody is not conforming to the intent of the ACC injury report. Meantime, that is the worst UVA injury report I've ever seen.
It all just makes a tough game tougher. Georgia Tech is always a difficult matchup if your defense isn't well-prepared, and last week is proof they can demolish lousy teams - as if last year's game in Atlanta wasn't proof enough. The road doesn't get any easier after last week, and with the losses piling up it's fair to wonder if this team will find another win all season.
-- UVA run offense vs. GT run defense
Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 131 carries, 560 yards, 4.3 ypc, 8 TDs
Khalek Shepherd: 32 carries, 233 yards, 7.3 ypc, 1 TD
UVA offense:
176.14 yards/game, 4.03 yards/attempt
82nd of 125 (national), 9th of 14 (ACC)
GT offense:
124.00 yards/game, 3.98 yards/attempt
57th of 125 (national), 11th of 14 (ACC)
Conner Davis's presence on the injury report is a disturbing sign for the offense; it was his absence in the first place that triggered a lot of the offensive line troubles. Cody Wallace is listed as Davis's backup with Eric Tetlow behind Jay Whitmire on the other side, but keep an eye on this. Wallace was pulled for Tetlow against Pitt, and Tetlow could get the call. The offense would probably run better if so.
Georgia Tech's defense has been somewhat like a chameleon, matching their play to the level of opposition. If the opponent is good, they've gashed the Jackets. If the opponent is lousy, they get shut down. Duke Johnson and Miami absolutely destroyed them; on the other hand, Virginia Tech's running game didn't exist except for what Logan Thomas did. Which wasn't much.
The Jackets just don't get into the backfield much. Nose tackle Adam Gotsis is a nasty customer in this regard with six run-game TFLs this season, but otherwise nobody else has very many, and GT is 110th in the country in TFL. That said, a nasty defensive tackle was all it took for Pitt to destroy UVA's offense, and three-tech tackle Euclid Cummings is good enough that over-doubling Gotsis will probably cost the Hoos.
GT's linebackers can be tough too; there is no particular holy terror but no weak link either, with all three starters - Brandon Watts, Jabari Hunt-Days, and Quayshawn Nealy - all in the team's top four in tackles.
If Davis does play, he'll probably be limited, so I can't express a lot of hope for the line either way. UVA isn't going to find itself totally shut down, but shouldn't expect to move the ball as easily as they did in the first half against Duke, either. The best chance: Watford. GT has shown a tendency to allow yards by a running quarterback, as both Logan Thomas and BYU's Taysom Hill were able to move the ball this way. Watford doesn't keep much on the read option, though. I was brimming with optimism for the run game last week against Duke; their failure to come through combined with injury troubles at guard and another tough DT gives me much less faith, and I can't figure the run game for more than 125 yards or so.
-- UVA pass offense vs. GT pass defense
Quarterback:
David Watford: 148/253, 58.5%; 1,339 yards, 5 TDs, 8 INTs; 5.29 yards/attempt
Top receivers:
Jake McGee: 31 rec., 265 yards, 2 TDs
Kevin Parks: 25 rec., 270 yards, 1 TD
UVA offense:
197.6 yards/game, 5.1 yards/attempt
122nd of 125 (national), 14th of 14 (ACC)
GT defense:
203.7 yards/game, 7.3 yards/attempt
75th of 125 (national), 9th of 14 (ACC)
Bad news, everyone. We're no longer last in the country in passing! Wonder if it'll matter this week; we've known for a couple weeks now that Jake McGee is banged up even though he didn't show up on the injury report against Duke. The Maryland game made it clear enough. Now listed as questionable, McGee's status is firmly up in the air. I would guess he plays, but we'll see. No McGee would mean a big, big role for Zach Swanson, and, no disrespect to Swanson, but a pretty big detriment to the passing game.
It won't have much effect on the stat sheet, but Kyle Dockins looks very likely to miss the game given his injury report status. Dockins isn't targeted much, but his absence means the coaches will have to dig deeper into the underperforming-veterans well and give more playing time to Tim Smith or Darius Jennings. Any more drops by Jennings and he's going to end up the fanbase's least favorite player; his chronic case of stone hands this season has been one of the year's most frustrating developments.
Defensively, Tech brings a solid pass rush from Adam Gotsis and defensive end Jeremiah Attaochu, though Attaochu's production on the year is decidedly down from what it was. They present a tough matchup in that their linebackers, Quayshawn Nealy in particular, are good pass defenders. Nealy plays the weak side, though, so won't likely be matched up with McGee much. Brandon Watts on the strong side is less skilled in pass defense, so McGee (or Swanson) should be able to find room. Cornerback Louis Young is the top player in the secondary, and given our receivers' inability to get open, should be a blanket all day.
I think it's fair to upgrade our assessment of our passing game a tick - but only a tick, as Watford is still far too inconsistent and the receivers haven't shown any indication of upgrading their game. If they didn't do it against Duke, I have no idea when they ever will. GT isn't overall a great pass-defense team - the rush is OK, and Young is the only playmaker among the starters in the secondary, though backup safety Chris Milton also has two picks. Logan Thomas, he of the scattershot arm, had a really nice day passing against the Jackets. Tech might present some matchup problems with linebackers who can defend the pass (Nealy may be a problem in trying to get the ball to Kevin Parks) and a pass-rushing DT, but Watford should continue to nudge his trend upwards, even if only slightly.
-- GT run offense against UVA run defense
Top backs:
David Sims: 84 carries, 409 yards, 4.9 ypc, 6 TDs
Zach Laskey: 45 carries, 261 yards, 5.8 ypc, 4 TDs
GT offense:
304.43 yards/game, 5.27 yards/attempt
19th of 125 (national), 3rd of 14 (ACC)
UVA defense:
151.71 yards/game, 3.98 yards/attempt
56th of 125 (national), 10th of 14 (ACC)
Each week I've sort of taken to naming which of the four sections of the game should provide the decisive factor. This week it's here, because against GT it's always here. You know the drill about what they do.
Unfortunately, defending it is going to be a son of a bitch this week. We don't have our best DT, so we'll have a tough time holding the middle against the fullback dive part of the option. We're short on options at DE because our run-stopping DE is playing DT (and is a little overmatched there due to size.) Two very solid run-stopping tacklers at CB are out. We do have some high-quality linebackers whose strengths just happen to include play diagnosis - but only two.
Adding to the complication is what Jon Tenuta will do. Remember, Tenuta, despite his past tenure at GT, didn't coach there under the current regime, and so doesn't have any special insight. If I had a time machine I'd go back and watch old NC State-GT games (despite the crossover, Tenuta did coach against the Jackets twice while at NC State) to see what his philosophy was. It didn't work out especially well; Tenuta's defense gave up 28 and 35 points, while the Pack split the crossover series in 2010 and 2011.
If he decides to be Mr. Aggressive as usual, that could pay wicked dividends at times and get him burned super-crispy at others. Blitzing Coley up the middle could help dissuade fullback dives, and sending an OLB or a CB from one side could either flood the area with defenders (good) or leave huge running lanes (bad.) Tech isn't real big on throwing over the middle, so having Anthony Harris filling the middle while Coley finds a gap to get through could be a helpful strategy, especially since the depth at DT is hurting.
Tenuta's going to have to wizard his way through this one, though, and ultimately, GT has a major upper hand here. With so many key personnel out, UVA will be depending on a patchwork of less-experienced players. I think GT will have a ton of success up the middle. I fully expect to get gashed there. If the Hoos can force Vad Lee to keep - he's only averaging three yards a carry - they'll be in better shape, but I don't think they can do that consistently.
-- GT pass offense vs. UVA pass defense
Quarterback:
Vad Lee: 44/99, 44.4%; 846 yards, 8 TDs, 5 INTs; 8.55 yards/attempt
Top receivers:
DeAndre Smelter: 14 rec., 211 yards, 2 TDs
Robert Godhigh: 10 rec., 188 yards, 2 TDs
GT offense:
125.6 yards/game, 7.9 yards/attempt
42nd of 125 (national), 9th of 14 (ACC)
UVA defense:
225.9 yards/game, 6.4 yards/attempt
33rd of 125 (national), 6th of 14 (ACC)
You have to give Paul Johnson this: He's incredibly consistent in his pass-offense playcalling. In his first four years as GT coach, his teams attempted 165, 168, 168, and 167 passes. Last year they went all pass-wacky with 194, but this season, Vad Lee is on pace for 170 attempts. Consistency.
I bring up this factoid just because there's very little to talk about in defending GT's passing game. All it takes is a solid cornerback and some discipline at free safety. (That would be really cool if we had Demetrious Nicholson, or even Maurice Canady.) If you have those two things, GT will not be able to throw the ball against you, because they like to wait until you're overplaying the run.
Then again, we might be forced to overplay the run if the assigned defenders can't stop it. Plus, this season, GT is actually spreading the ball between WRs a little more than they used to, when in the past they would have one big dude making all the plays and the second WR would just be a very fast, very widely split offensive tackle. And then some occasional throws to the RBs. This year, DeAndre Smelter has 14 catches, but Darren Waller has 10. Both are very, very tall in the usual Paul Johnson mold; Smelter is 6'3" and Waller 6'5". Ordinarily this would not be a bad game to break in Tim Harris in his first game as a starter, but Harris may be tested a few times, particularly given his inexperience.
Lee, however, has not been the more-accurate passer he was advertised to be, connecting on only 44% of his passes. And UVA has, with just a few ugly exceptions, defended the pass rather well. If GT beats us, it won't be through the air.
-- Favorability ratings
UVA run offense: 3.5
UVA pass offense: 4
UVA run defense: 1.5
UVA pass defense: 6
Average: 3.75
That said, it'd really be fairer if I half-weighted the pass defense and double-weighted the run defense.
-- Outlook
Here's the recipe for beating Georgia Tech's offense. You need:
-- a really good defensive tackle that can command a double team and even slash into the backfield, to discourage the fullback dive part of the option
-- defensive ends that are both disciplined and able to hold the edge against a blocker
-- a cornerback that sticks like glue
-- a free safety you trust implicitly
-- linebackers who can fill gaps ASAP and move side-to-side with ease.
We have one out of five. We would have four out of five if not for injuries. This is not a good omen.
-- Prediction summary
-- The UVA running game fails to top 125 yards.
-- David Watford again tops 6 yards a pass. Progress. Baby steps.
-- Both David Sims and Zach Laskey have 100+ yard rushing days.
-- No GT receiver has a catch of 30 yards or more, unless it's mostly YAC. (This represents success in one realm of the matchup, at least.)
Final score: GT 35, UVA 17
-- Rest of the ACC
Wake Forest @ Miami - 12:00 - A likely rout, but then, that's what I thought Maryland would do to the Deacs last week.
Pittsburgh @ Navy - 1:00 - I labeled Pitt the worst team in the Coastal and they're two wins from eligibility; probably one win after this week.
NC State @ Florida State - 3:30 - The Pack have occasionally had the magic touch against FSU, but not this year.
Clemson @ Maryland - 3:30 - The Terps will have other chances at bowl eligibility, but it won't be this week, and being rolled for the second week in a row - not to mention losing their whole receiving corps to injury - could send them into a death spiral.
Boston College @ North Carolina - 3:30 - I picked BC to go to a bowl this year when nobody else would, and even I didn't figure they'd be the only team in this matchup with a conference win.
Duke @ Virginia Tech - 3:30 - Semi-unstoppable force meets immovable object when Duke has the ball. Wet noodle meets half-eaten jelly roll otherwise.
Bye: Syracuse, busy licking their GT-induced wounds.
Sunday, October 13, 2013
a million miles away
I can see all the signs. I see the box score, where respectable offensive numbers show up in places where there used to be a toxic waste dump. I watched the game and for once it was the opponent I saw making crucial mistakes and handing points on silver platters to the other team. If one game can be called a trend, there's a decidedly upwards one.
I'm still not convinced. It's probably too late to rescue the season, now that the team needs four wins in the next six to call the season a success. The progress isn't fast enough. On the one hand, they did a lot of things right on Saturday; on the other, they did a few basic things so badly that they're still having to compensate in ways that can't bring sustainable success.
The O-line's inability to push a pile into the end zone was the most galling, and the reason that UVA lost despite a +3 turnover margin. Given not one, but two red zone chances after muffed punts, the Hoos managed two field goals. (This is why red-zone scoring percentage is a crap statistic. Announcers call that 100%. I call it 42%.) The offensive line simply was not good, and the result was a whole bunch of field goals when touchdowns were demanded.
This is why it's awfully hard to blame Steve Fairchild for the woes of the offense right now. If anything, maybe Scott Wachenheim. The offensive line is a lousy unit right now. It just is. It can't be anything else given their total failure to be able to line up and gain just a few yards when that's all that's needed. Fairchild managed to scheme around that and actually pile up yards on the ground. 242 rushing yards - that's all scheme. When asked to execute an assignment, the line is doing fine. When asked to win a battle, it ain't happening.
The level of trust in the quarterback isn't there either. UVA ran twenty plays inside the Maryland twenty, only six of which were called passes. Six passes, fourteen runs. This doesn't count the end-of-game sequence in which the playcalling was apparently designed to ensure maximum safety. I can't totally fault that - people would've been all over London and Fairchild if Watford had thrown a pick - but don't you think if we had a quarterback we trusted, they'd've put the game in his hands? They purposely didn't, nor did they, except for one (failed) attempt, let him try and score the touchdown with his arm. The only time he did score with his arm was a totally improvised busted play.
Against an O-line that can't move anyone and a quarterback the OC doesn't trust, how does the team win four of six? It probably doesn't. A two-game winning streak is the only thing that can change my mind, and even then maybe not because Clemson waits in three weeks.
I don't have a lot of other reactions in brief (other than to say that, yes, kicking the extra point to cut Maryland's lead to 14-13 in the first half was the right call. In the first half you always take the point, period. Too much can happen and it's the easiest thing in the world to come up with scenarios where you might really, really regret not having that point.) So let's go straight to the predictions:
-- Watford throws neither a pick nor a touchdown. Aw, c'mon. If it hadn't been for his very excellent improvision with McGee I'd have nailed this one. Oh well. Actually Watford played maybe his best game so far. He slightly improved the distance on his passes and didn't throw an interception. He needs some help from his receivers, who consistently don't get open, but he's starting, just ever so slightly, to come into his own.
-- Neither run game musters more than three yards per attempt. Actually both run games looked solid.
-- Keeon Johnson leads UVA wide receivers in receptions. I thought there was no way this was going to pan out, but - boom. Johnson had two, and nobody but Dom Terrell (two also) had more than one.
-- Stefon Diggs has had two catches each of the past two games; he has more here. Diggs had six. This was an easy call.
Two-for-four makes me 13-for-30, plus I nailed both the game and spread prediction, making me 3-3 in both.
P.S. I think we're going to find out this week that, once again, We Can't Have Nice Things. In this case, nice defensive tackles.
I'm still not convinced. It's probably too late to rescue the season, now that the team needs four wins in the next six to call the season a success. The progress isn't fast enough. On the one hand, they did a lot of things right on Saturday; on the other, they did a few basic things so badly that they're still having to compensate in ways that can't bring sustainable success.
The O-line's inability to push a pile into the end zone was the most galling, and the reason that UVA lost despite a +3 turnover margin. Given not one, but two red zone chances after muffed punts, the Hoos managed two field goals. (This is why red-zone scoring percentage is a crap statistic. Announcers call that 100%. I call it 42%.) The offensive line simply was not good, and the result was a whole bunch of field goals when touchdowns were demanded.
This is why it's awfully hard to blame Steve Fairchild for the woes of the offense right now. If anything, maybe Scott Wachenheim. The offensive line is a lousy unit right now. It just is. It can't be anything else given their total failure to be able to line up and gain just a few yards when that's all that's needed. Fairchild managed to scheme around that and actually pile up yards on the ground. 242 rushing yards - that's all scheme. When asked to execute an assignment, the line is doing fine. When asked to win a battle, it ain't happening.
The level of trust in the quarterback isn't there either. UVA ran twenty plays inside the Maryland twenty, only six of which were called passes. Six passes, fourteen runs. This doesn't count the end-of-game sequence in which the playcalling was apparently designed to ensure maximum safety. I can't totally fault that - people would've been all over London and Fairchild if Watford had thrown a pick - but don't you think if we had a quarterback we trusted, they'd've put the game in his hands? They purposely didn't, nor did they, except for one (failed) attempt, let him try and score the touchdown with his arm. The only time he did score with his arm was a totally improvised busted play.
Against an O-line that can't move anyone and a quarterback the OC doesn't trust, how does the team win four of six? It probably doesn't. A two-game winning streak is the only thing that can change my mind, and even then maybe not because Clemson waits in three weeks.
I don't have a lot of other reactions in brief (other than to say that, yes, kicking the extra point to cut Maryland's lead to 14-13 in the first half was the right call. In the first half you always take the point, period. Too much can happen and it's the easiest thing in the world to come up with scenarios where you might really, really regret not having that point.) So let's go straight to the predictions:
-- Watford throws neither a pick nor a touchdown. Aw, c'mon. If it hadn't been for his very excellent improvision with McGee I'd have nailed this one. Oh well. Actually Watford played maybe his best game so far. He slightly improved the distance on his passes and didn't throw an interception. He needs some help from his receivers, who consistently don't get open, but he's starting, just ever so slightly, to come into his own.
-- Neither run game musters more than three yards per attempt. Actually both run games looked solid.
-- Keeon Johnson leads UVA wide receivers in receptions. I thought there was no way this was going to pan out, but - boom. Johnson had two, and nobody but Dom Terrell (two also) had more than one.
-- Stefon Diggs has had two catches each of the past two games; he has more here. Diggs had six. This was an easy call.
Two-for-four makes me 13-for-30, plus I nailed both the game and spread prediction, making me 3-3 in both.
P.S. I think we're going to find out this week that, once again, We Can't Have Nice Things. In this case, nice defensive tackles.
Friday, October 4, 2013
game preview: Ball State
Date/Time: Saturday, October 5; 12:00
TV: RSN/ESPN3
Record against the Cardinals: 0-0
Last meeting: N/A
Last weekend: Pitt 14, UVA 3; BSU 31, Tol. 24
Line: UVA by 5
Injury report: none
One kind of annoying thing about having kind of a (perceived) lousy team: nobody gives you credit for the good things you can do. UVA is a fashionable upset pick this week because "Ball State has a good offense." (Classic example: David Hale on the ESPN blog writes, "Ball State QB Keith Wenning has thrown for more than 300 yards in every game so far, meaning the Cavaliers are likely going to need some offensive fireworks of their own to keep pace." What that actually says is, "UVA's defense isn't good enough to stop him from doing so again.") That offense has been on display against teams like the mighty Eastern Michigan Eagles, but whatever. UVA's defense isn't being given a whole lot of attention. DARK HORSEZ MAN. US VS. EVERYBODY. This is a must-win game, though; I chalked up Ball State as a win on the road to bowl eligibility not because I think they suck VMI-style, but because if you can't beat Ball State you're gonna find the road in the ACC awfully tough. So if we do - somehow - pull off the win, don't forget to drop Hale, Mark Schlabach, and Heather Dinich a friendly little hello.
-- UVA run offense vs. BSU run defense
Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 72 carries, 294 yards, 4.1 ypc, 3 TDs
Daniel Hamm: 23 carries, 141 yards, 6.1 ypc, 2 TDs
UVA offense:
163.75 yards/game, 3.70 yards/attempt
96th of 125 (national), 12 of 14 (ACC)
BSU defense:
202.6 yards/game, 4.65 yards/attempt
90th of 125 (national), 8th of 13 (MAC)
The question I've been rhetorically asking all season is: which back is going to be Kevin Parks's primary reliever? It might be that the answer is nobody. Part of the deal there is injuries - all three of the primary options, including both the surprise and the non-surprises, have been dealing with injury. I think the other likely explanation is this: Parks is the only one the coaches consistently trust to run the read-option with Watford (inexperienced backs can logarithmically increase your fumble rate on that play) and Watford defaults to handing off. Parks has averaged 18 carries a game, and that's including his half-day against VMI and the forced pass-happy day (UVA attempted 47 passes) against Oregon.
When Mike London announced changes on the offensive line, it was primarily to get the running game going. Pass protection, while not spectacular, isn't a total disaster either; Aaron Donald did make it look worse than it has been, but it was basically the running game that instigated the change. I'm slightly more than cautiously optimistic about it; Jay Whitmire is undoubtedly one of the top linemen on the team, and you can tell because of how his RT position was never challenged in camp. No, that's not a knock on the challengers. He will be a colossal upgrade over Cody Wallace and is also probably better than the still-injured Conner Davis. RG just got a lot better.
So that should help the run game. We'll have to see about center; the smart money leans toward Jackson Matteo, whose track to the starting job was derailed by an injury in camp. He's now over that and should be ready, but the fact that he's an unknown quantity makes me more nervous about that potential change.
Ball State should be a good way to ease the linemen into their new roles. There's no dominant force on the Cardinal D-line - the closest thing might be DT Nathan Ollie, who's got a few TFL to his name - and running offenses both good and bad have moved the ball against them. Eastern Michigan, the 118th rushing offense in the country, had 4.6 yards a carry, and North Texas (101st) was over five. The Cardinals have some decent linebacking from Ben Ingle and Zack Ryan, but ultimately there's no individual in particular to game-plan for. That's great news for our offense; it means they can focus internally without penalty, and worry about what they want to do rather than what they have to do to avoid the strengths of the defense.
It's still early, so hope springs eternal yet; I might be a hopeless dumbass for this, but let's just go ahead and call a 100-yard day for Kevin Parks. Five yards a carry on the 20 carries he'll get given the likely injury state of the other backs. 125 yards on the ground is all the Hoos need for a non-VMI season best, and I think they get it.
-- UVA pass offense vs. BSU pass defense
Quarterback:
David Watford: 80/135, 59.3%; 604 yards, 3 TDs, 6 INTs; 4.47 yards/attempt
Top receivers:
Darius Jennings: 14 rec., 107 yards, 1 TD
Jake McGee: 16 rec., 91 yards, 1 TD
UVA offense:
158.5 yards/game, 4.3 yards/attempt
125th of 125 (national), 14th of 14 (ACC)
BSU defense:
223.6 yards/game, 6.4 yards/attempt
50th of 125 (national), 2nd of 13 (MAC)
It's official now: we have the worst-ass pass offense in the nation. Last week pretty much cemented that. Very rarely was the offense ever able to put together good protection, good decision-making, a good throw, and an actual catch all in one play. The receivers found themselves on notice in practice this week for all the drops.
That part can probably improve. Darius Jennings and Jake McGee have never been stonehanded players. Dominique Terrell used to be, but not for a while now, and he actually was not a major culprit (in the passing game, anyway.) Despite the depth chart and its "or" overload, I don't think there'll be a revolution there. We'll probably see most of the usual suspects again.
Watford's decision-making is a work in progress, though, and it's going to come along at its own pace rather than there suddenly being some opponent which makes it easier on us. And a new right tackle (true freshman Eric Smith) could have us keeping an eye on pass protection. Ball State doesn't have any dynamic pass-rushers, but they like to bring blitzes from different areas; their sack leader, with two, is cornerback Kenneth Lee. The D-line accounts for only 3 of their 8 sacks, so this is another reason for the coaches to want to lean on the veteran RB in Parks, as well as something else for Watford to have to watch.
There are too many moving parts in a passing game for me to hold the same kind of optimism as with the running game. And the Cardinal defense is better in this realm. The D-line won't generate a big pass rush, so that's a plus, but Ball State is good at keeping things in front of them and making a few turnovers happen here and there. I don't think Watford gets more than 6 yards a pop, tops.
-- BSU run offense vs. UVA run defense
Top backs:
Horactio Banks: 55 carries, 350 yards, 6.4 ypc, 5 TDs
Jahwan Edwards: 49 carries, 219 yards, 4.5 ypc, 7 TDs
BSU offense:
136.6 yards/game, 4.30 yards/attempt
76th of 125 (national), 4th of 13 (MAC)
UVA defense:
146.5 yards/game, 3.83 yards/attempt
53rd of 125 (national), 9th of 14 (ACC)
The real testament here to the quality of the UVA defense is that they're comfortably in the top half of the country despite that 350-yard Oregon game. The rest of the time, which includes two perfectly decent BCS-level opponents, UVA has been crushing running games into fine powder, and their yards-per-carry stat in those three would be good enough for second in the country.
So despite the very nice-looking stats of Ball State's primary ballcarriers, I'd say it's the Cardinals that have to prove themselves here. Their backs are smallish all the way around; Horactio Banks is sort of normal-small at 5'10", but Jahwan Edwards is stocky as hell at the same height and 225 pounds. They're a little bit of a poor man's thunder and lightning; Edwards might have a little bit better of a ypc average if he weren't called on a lot in short yardage. Ball State also uses freshman mini-back Teddy Williamson, but he hasn't been productive yet.
At any rate, there's not a lot to discuss, matchup-wise. We've gotten to the point where I'm perfectly comfy turning our defense loose and not worrying about the result because it'll take care of itself. OK, we can talk about that a little bit; Ball State does have a pair of what Gregg Easterbrook used to call Ticonderoga-class offensive guards in Jalen Schlachter and Jordan Hansel. They should be able to win a few battles here and there. Still, I don't think either of BSU's primary backs can top even half their season average for yards per carry, nor two-thirds their yards-per-game.
-- BSU pass offense vs. UVA pass defense
Quarterback:
Keith Wenning: 118/184, 64.1%; 1,650 yards, 9 TDs, 3 INTs; 8.97 yards/attempt
Top receivers:
Willie Snead: 35 rec., 611 yards, 4 TDs
Jamill Smith: 28 rec., 397 yards, 1 TD
BSU offense:
335.8 yards/game, 8.7 yards/attempt
25th of 125 (national), 2nd of 13 (MAC)
UVA defense:
152.8 yards/game, 4.7 yards/attempt
4th of 125 (national), 1st of 14 (ACC)
These defensive numbers are so good (that is, low) that I seriously thought for a second I had accidentally called up the offensive stats again. They're even pretty close. Again, they're you-have-to-beat-us numbers.
Ball State should be relatively easy to scout because they don't spread the ball around much. The guys you see on film are the ones you'll see on game day. That goes for the running and passing game. The top four receivers account for 81% of the receptions; the next two are hurt, so it's more like 93% considering only receptions by players actually available.
This area of the game, though, is why people think Ball State will win. Keith Wenning is a senior QB with a load of experience under his belt; he's been a starter since he was a freshman. He's averaging 330 yards a game. His stats are also you-have-to-beat-us stats. Receiver Willie Snead has already hauled in 611 yards, more than two-thirds of ACC receivers (if not more) will have all year. Ball State also has Jamill Smith, an itsy-bitsy spider at 5'8", 141, and Jordan Williams is their big guy at 6'2". Solid receiving corps, but if our secondary can cover Devin Street and Tyler Boyd consistently, they should also be able to handle Ball State's gang.
Wenning has thrown for at least 317 yards in every game, but every defense they've faced has been trash. Every I-A team they've faced ranks in the triple-digits against the pass. North Texas - and that's the team that beat the Cardinals, by the way - is 120th. Yes, Ball State's been good at protecting the passer and moving the ball with tremendous efficiency - but they're in a whole new ballgame here. Wenning is not going to top that 300 mark, nor even 250, I would hazard.
-- Favorability ratings
The offense is in such a state that there is no longer any team in which I can possibly give them a favorable rating. Maybe VMI. Maybe.
Run offense: 4
Pass offense: 2.5
Run defense: 8
Pass defense: 7.5
Average: 5.5
-- Outlook
For the first time this year I don't think the average favorability quite does the game justice. It's cliched but true to brag that Ball State, gaudy though their numbers might be, has not faced a defense like ours. I make an allowance for their accomplishments, but the baseline favorability ratings right now ought to be, like, 2 for the offense and 9 for the defense. Ball State actually plays fairly well into our hands; the thing they do best pits them against the teeth of the monster, and the thing they do worst (defend the run) is well-positioned to let us look for a rebound game. I think it'll be a little tighter than would be comfortable at times, but in the end we should be happy with the result.
-- Prediction summary
Admittedly some of these do not set the bar all that high, but c'mon. Baby steps.
-- Kevin Parks runs for over 100 yards.
-- The offense as a whole runs for over 125 yards.
-- No new favorite receivers. The receptions leader among non-RBs will be Jennings, McGee, Smith, or Terrell; nobody with fewer than nine catches.
-- However, one receiver with two catches or fewer will gather in at least four.
-- Ball State's top RBs, Banks and Edwards, reach neither one-half their seasonal ypc nor two-thirds their average ypg.
-- Keith Wenning throws for fewer than 250 yards.
Final score: UVA 24, BSU 13
-- Rest of the ACC
Maryland @ Florida State - 12:00 - If Maryland wins, or even comes close, I promise to stop saying "we'll have to wait and see if they're any good."
North Carolina @ Virginia Tech - 12:30 - Hokies fans are always so torn for this game. It's like choosing between children.
Boston College vs. Army - 1:00 - The Eagles look to "shut down" (HA HA GET IT BECAUSE OF THE GOVERNMENT?) the Army attack.
NC State @ Wake Forest - 3:30 - Remember how I said the Deacons' O-line was horrible and the NC State D-line was awesome? That's still true, so this ought to be an interesting game.
Clemson @ Syracuse - 3:30 - I don't expect this to be all that competitive either.
Georgia Tech @ Miami - 3:30 - If GT wins it could really screw up the Coastal race.
Byes: Pittsburgh, Duke
Monday, September 30, 2013
bipolar disorder
I was going to start this post with some variation of "I don't know whether to be happy or pissed off" based on the completely polar-opposite performances by the offense or defense. Then I realized - duh - we lost. So the answer to that question is pretty obvious.
Let's get the good stuff out of the way first before we descend into internet RAGE mode. All of the good stuff is defense-related, obviously. I really can't say enough what a great job the defense did. The offense should spend the week bringing room service to the defense and otherwise catering to their every whim, in exchange for the terrible letdown they handed their teammates on Saturday. Pitt does not have a good offensive line, but still - the domination at the line was a sight to behold. It wasn't just the seven sacks. It was the nonexistent Pitt running game, and the pressure on what must have been two of every three of Tom Savage's dropbacks.
The coverage deserves a hand, too. Savage had 191 passing yards and would've had less than half that if not for some absurdly good NFL throws. Several of his completions were despite beautiful coverage - and against two of the ACC's best receivers. Between the total ownership of the line of scrimmage and the excellent pass coverage, I have nothing whatsoever to say against the defense and can't find enough words of praise to heap upon their performance.
I really wish, though, that I'd thought of Jerry Ratcliffe's line about Dominique Terrell before Ratcliffe thought of it - specifically, he called Terrell's punt-catching decisions "like watching a drunk chase a balloon near the edge of a cliff." You just don't usually get that kind of color from the media and it's a shame. I might have said "off a cliff" because that's where Terrell seems to want to send his team's fortunes. At this point I've given up hope that Terrell will ever be a smart player, and it's just amazing to hear London talk about things like accountability and at the same time continue to put Terrell and his idiotically adventuresome decision-making skills out there in the spotlight.
So let's talk about our offense.
It's not so much that David Watford makes bad decisions. He just doesn't make any decisions. Occasionally, very occasionally, he keeps on a read option. When passing, he waits for his first-option receiver to get to the point on the route where Watford should throw the ball, and then throws it. Coverage be damned.
I really don't want to single out one person, though. The offensive line blocked like shit. Steve Fairchild called a shit game. And on the rare occasions where Watford made neither a shit throw nor a shit decision, his receivers took a shit.
I have two main bitches about Fairchild. One, God kills a baby angel every time an offensive coordinator runs a toss sweep or option play to the short side of the field. Two baby angels if he does it on fourth down. That is setting your offense up to fail, plain and simple. Two, continually calling run plays directly at Aaron Donald. I don't know whose fault it was that Donald kept being single-blocked, but there's never a good reason to run right at the best player on the defense regardless of how many blockers there are.
"Soul-searching" is probably the wrong word for what needs to happen in offensive meetings between now and next Saturday. Imodium-searching might be more productive so the offense can stop taking a big diarrhea-shit all over the field. Maybe someone can teach Watford that he has more than one receiver to throw to - or else just put nine guys in protection. Maybe someone can teach the offensive line to stay between the defender and the ball. Maybe someone can put stickum on the hands of the receivers. For some really stupid reason UVA starts as a five-point favorite against Ball State - which puts a lot of faith in the offense to score more than five points.
Brief other stuff:
-- If the offense spends the week fetching water for the defense, they can include Alec Vozenilek in their rounds for the 77-yard punt that bailed them out from shitting around inside their own ten.
-- I'm not mad at London for going for it on fourth and almost-goal, down 14-3. Anyone suggesting we should have kicked the field goal is saying that the offense would've been able to actually move the ball again. That one drive included over 40% of the yards the offense gained the entire game. 77 of their 188 total yards. What's easier: scoring a touchdown from the three yard line or your own 20?
-- It's possible, maybe probable, that Eric Tetlow is a better player than Cody Wallace right now.
-- The maddening thing about all the drops is that so many of them came from what are supposed to be our best receivers. Two each, I think, from Jake McGee and Darius Jennings. Settin' the example.
-- Piling on Dom Terrell a little bit more, how about this: we win if Terrell doesn't try to chase down that punt. Even if the offense had gone three-and-out, they'd likely have ended up punting, putting Pitt in no position to score. They don't score, they don't kick off and pin us deep where a bad snap gives Pitt the ball in the red zone again. Just keep trading punts and eventually the turnovers our defense generated would've let us get a field goal here and there, and the Panthers likely would've been shut out.
Prediction review:
Before we start, I'm just gonna say that I'm not taking responsibility for bad predictions this week. I'll still track 'em, but c'mon. I deserve a break when the offense is more preoccupied with taking a shit than with moving the ball.
-- Daniel Hamm outgains Khalek Shepherd. Null prediction as London mentioned Hamm left the game early with an injury. I think minus that I would've gotten it, though, because Shepherd was in for just one series.
-- Watford manages about six yards per pass. He got 3.3. He might have made it to six without the drops.
-- Watford also contributes at least 30 yards on the ground. He actually gained 50 yards going forward and lost 35 to sacks and shitty snaps. I'm claiming this one as a win since his contribution to the running game was much bigger than previously, even against VMI, and it's not his fault his O-line politely allowed Aaron Donald and his DT cohorts to get all up in his stuff every other pass.
-- Aaron Donald and Eli Harold are the only players on either team to register a sack. I actually got this half right. One Pitt sack - a fumbled snap - was considered a "team" sack, and Donald got their other two. I didn't really foresee the ass-kicking the rest of our line would deliver, though, and Max Valles deserves special recognition for making prophets out of the defensive coaches that put him way high on the depth chart.
-- UVA is able to keep Pitt's running game in check, with no more than four yards a carry. If you include sacks, Pitt totaled eight yards on the ground. Not including sacks they still got crushed, with only 2.2 yards a carry. Niiiiice.
-- If both Tyler Boyd and Devin Street have fewer than 100 receiving yards apiece, UVA wins. Null prediction as Boyd gathered in 111 receiving yards. That's not why we lost, though.
Take away the two nulls and I actually went two-for-four. 8-for-20 is the season total, and since I predicted a win, I drop to 2-2 both real-time and ATS in the game-prediction department. I should get another loss just for assuming the offense was a real offense, but that's not how this works.
Let's get the good stuff out of the way first before we descend into internet RAGE mode. All of the good stuff is defense-related, obviously. I really can't say enough what a great job the defense did. The offense should spend the week bringing room service to the defense and otherwise catering to their every whim, in exchange for the terrible letdown they handed their teammates on Saturday. Pitt does not have a good offensive line, but still - the domination at the line was a sight to behold. It wasn't just the seven sacks. It was the nonexistent Pitt running game, and the pressure on what must have been two of every three of Tom Savage's dropbacks.
The coverage deserves a hand, too. Savage had 191 passing yards and would've had less than half that if not for some absurdly good NFL throws. Several of his completions were despite beautiful coverage - and against two of the ACC's best receivers. Between the total ownership of the line of scrimmage and the excellent pass coverage, I have nothing whatsoever to say against the defense and can't find enough words of praise to heap upon their performance.
I really wish, though, that I'd thought of Jerry Ratcliffe's line about Dominique Terrell before Ratcliffe thought of it - specifically, he called Terrell's punt-catching decisions "like watching a drunk chase a balloon near the edge of a cliff." You just don't usually get that kind of color from the media and it's a shame. I might have said "off a cliff" because that's where Terrell seems to want to send his team's fortunes. At this point I've given up hope that Terrell will ever be a smart player, and it's just amazing to hear London talk about things like accountability and at the same time continue to put Terrell and his idiotically adventuresome decision-making skills out there in the spotlight.
So let's talk about our offense.
It's not so much that David Watford makes bad decisions. He just doesn't make any decisions. Occasionally, very occasionally, he keeps on a read option. When passing, he waits for his first-option receiver to get to the point on the route where Watford should throw the ball, and then throws it. Coverage be damned.
I really don't want to single out one person, though. The offensive line blocked like shit. Steve Fairchild called a shit game. And on the rare occasions where Watford made neither a shit throw nor a shit decision, his receivers took a shit.
I have two main bitches about Fairchild. One, God kills a baby angel every time an offensive coordinator runs a toss sweep or option play to the short side of the field. Two baby angels if he does it on fourth down. That is setting your offense up to fail, plain and simple. Two, continually calling run plays directly at Aaron Donald. I don't know whose fault it was that Donald kept being single-blocked, but there's never a good reason to run right at the best player on the defense regardless of how many blockers there are.
"Soul-searching" is probably the wrong word for what needs to happen in offensive meetings between now and next Saturday. Imodium-searching might be more productive so the offense can stop taking a big diarrhea-shit all over the field. Maybe someone can teach Watford that he has more than one receiver to throw to - or else just put nine guys in protection. Maybe someone can teach the offensive line to stay between the defender and the ball. Maybe someone can put stickum on the hands of the receivers. For some really stupid reason UVA starts as a five-point favorite against Ball State - which puts a lot of faith in the offense to score more than five points.
Brief other stuff:
-- If the offense spends the week fetching water for the defense, they can include Alec Vozenilek in their rounds for the 77-yard punt that bailed them out from shitting around inside their own ten.
-- I'm not mad at London for going for it on fourth and almost-goal, down 14-3. Anyone suggesting we should have kicked the field goal is saying that the offense would've been able to actually move the ball again. That one drive included over 40% of the yards the offense gained the entire game. 77 of their 188 total yards. What's easier: scoring a touchdown from the three yard line or your own 20?
-- It's possible, maybe probable, that Eric Tetlow is a better player than Cody Wallace right now.
-- The maddening thing about all the drops is that so many of them came from what are supposed to be our best receivers. Two each, I think, from Jake McGee and Darius Jennings. Settin' the example.
-- Piling on Dom Terrell a little bit more, how about this: we win if Terrell doesn't try to chase down that punt. Even if the offense had gone three-and-out, they'd likely have ended up punting, putting Pitt in no position to score. They don't score, they don't kick off and pin us deep where a bad snap gives Pitt the ball in the red zone again. Just keep trading punts and eventually the turnovers our defense generated would've let us get a field goal here and there, and the Panthers likely would've been shut out.
Prediction review:
Before we start, I'm just gonna say that I'm not taking responsibility for bad predictions this week. I'll still track 'em, but c'mon. I deserve a break when the offense is more preoccupied with taking a shit than with moving the ball.
-- Daniel Hamm outgains Khalek Shepherd. Null prediction as London mentioned Hamm left the game early with an injury. I think minus that I would've gotten it, though, because Shepherd was in for just one series.
-- Watford manages about six yards per pass. He got 3.3. He might have made it to six without the drops.
-- Watford also contributes at least 30 yards on the ground. He actually gained 50 yards going forward and lost 35 to sacks and shitty snaps. I'm claiming this one as a win since his contribution to the running game was much bigger than previously, even against VMI, and it's not his fault his O-line politely allowed Aaron Donald and his DT cohorts to get all up in his stuff every other pass.
-- Aaron Donald and Eli Harold are the only players on either team to register a sack. I actually got this half right. One Pitt sack - a fumbled snap - was considered a "team" sack, and Donald got their other two. I didn't really foresee the ass-kicking the rest of our line would deliver, though, and Max Valles deserves special recognition for making prophets out of the defensive coaches that put him way high on the depth chart.
-- UVA is able to keep Pitt's running game in check, with no more than four yards a carry. If you include sacks, Pitt totaled eight yards on the ground. Not including sacks they still got crushed, with only 2.2 yards a carry. Niiiiice.
-- If both Tyler Boyd and Devin Street have fewer than 100 receiving yards apiece, UVA wins. Null prediction as Boyd gathered in 111 receiving yards. That's not why we lost, though.
Take away the two nulls and I actually went two-for-four. 8-for-20 is the season total, and since I predicted a win, I drop to 2-2 both real-time and ATS in the game-prediction department. I should get another loss just for assuming the offense was a real offense, but that's not how this works.
Monday, September 9, 2013
weekend review
I've said in the past that writing about losses is much harder than writing about wins, and now that we've just seen the single largest football defeat of the FOV era (and that's saying something) I find the trend continuing. There's a certain je ne sais quois about a seven-score ass-whoopin' that takes all the words out of my mouth. "Well that sucked" just doesn't have the kick to it I'd like.
In fact, I've decided the most disappointing part about the game was not anything that actually happened (playcalling, interceptions, big plays given up, etc. etc. - the problem is that there are just too many to pick one) but that they all happened with UVA wearing its classiest uniforms. I'm glad and all that they picked a big game to wear the "traditional"** look but now they probably never will again, at least not this season.
I have to give Oregon this, too: Often, when I'm watching a blowout, it doesn't seem like one. The losing team will just keep doing things a little bit worse than the winning team and by the end of the game it's like 45-7 and I realize, dang, that wasn't actually competitive. No such restrictions this time. I think it's because of the number of times we got gashed for big plays, or maybe it's because of things like big long touchdowns immediately following a pickoff, or maybe just because every time there was an important play, we came out on the wrong side of the outcome.
Complicating matters, of course, is BYU's dominating win over Texas. I seem to recall playing really good defense against BYU. Cougars fans must wonder how on earth they went basically nowhere against a defense that just gave up 9 yards a carry to Oregon and then exploded for 550 rushing yards against Texas. I'm allowed to interpret this however I want, and so for my own sanity I say that we really do have a good run defense, maybe even a really good run defense, but Oregon is special and unique. Plus also, Marcus Mariota was only 14-for-28 passing, which isn't that good, and UVA is allowing only a 40.6% completion rate to opposing quarterbacks. David Watford's passing has been kind of crummy, and so has Logan Thomas's, and VT is allowing only a 36.8% completion rate, and so in the department of way too early predictions, that game against the Hokies is really going to put a stellar air assault on display.
Oh well. At least Greyson Lambert didn't fire up a QB controversy, right? Ah, that's not a nice thing to say. I shouldn't say that.
Time for the prediction review:
-- At least two of UVA's running backs, one of which is Kevin Parks, will improve on their BYU rushing total by at least 10 yards. Well, Khalek Shepherd did, because he carried for 46 yards with 45 of them coming on one play. Parks did not, however. Oregon's run defense played much better than I gave them credit for, a major reason for the blowout since UVA could accomplish very little on the ground.
-- UVA's TEs and RBs combine for more catches than their WRs. By a lot, too. 21 to 10. By themselves, Jake McGee and Zach Swanson fulfilled this particular prophecy. Oregon's corners were at least as good as advertised, and I advertised them as comprising "one of the finest secondaries in the country." Darius Jennings caught three passes for -2 yards, which is a huge statement by the Duck cornerbacks. I didn't even realize he'd caught as many as three passes.
-- Watford throws more INTs than TDs. Even when making this prediction I had really hoped for a better than 0-to-3 ratio, but there you are.
-- Oregon breaks at least one TD run of at least 60 yards. Mariota's 71-yarder to open the scoring certainly qualifies. At that point I was regretting not making the prediction "at least three runs" and if I had, I would still have given myself this one because the only reason some of those runs weren't longer is because Oregon was given such nice field position in the first place.
-- Oregon has more than twice as many rush yards as passing yards. I thought for sure I would get this one right, but then the box score shows only 350 rush yards against 207 passing yards. I feel like I ought to give myself this one for the very reason above, but I'll let it slide.
-- Mariota is the only Oregon QB to throw a pass. I have to give at least that much to our defense; at least we'll keep it close enough to keep the scrubs out of the game. I blame the offense for my failure at this prediction, actually.
Going 3-for-6 this week (with one that could've easily made it four) makes me 4-for-10 so far on the season, which is a respectable start. And I'm now 1-1 both straight up and against the spread after winning this week's bet.
Notes from the rest of the ACC:
-- I think you definitely have to give the conference some credit this year for having, now, two statement wins against the SEC, thanks to Miami this week. The ACC-SEC battle this year has been much closer to even. If anyone besides Syracuse would play a Big Ten team we could probably match up pretty well there, too.
-- Don't look now, but Boston College is 2-0. Two weeks from now they'll probably be 2-2, and they still have an uphill battle for bowl eligibility, but I was feeling pretty good about myself after watching the Eagles' defense stuff Wake Forest.
-- Another team I'm feeling pretty good about, or at least, I'm feeling pretty good about my prediction about them: NC State. Michael Strauss - the former Hoo, yes - shredded them for 300 yards, and the Pack barely escaped Richmond.
Senior Seasons feature:
Williams 39, Cummings 33: Will Richardson missed the game, his team's third straight loss to start the season. Cummings is 0-3.
Oscar Smith 42, Lake Taylor 2: Andrew Brown had 4 TFL, 2 sacks, and forced and recovered 2 fumbles in Oscar Smith's dominating, nationally televised win over Lake Taylor. Oscar Smith is 1-0.
Oaks Christian 57, Upland 28 (Jeffrey Farrar) - Upland is 0-2.
Tampa Catholic 13, Central Catholic 10 (Caanan Brown) - CCC is 1-1.
Episcopal Academy 21, Interboro 7 (Evan Butts) - Episcopal is 2-0.
Bayside 14, Princess Anne 0 (Quin Blanding) - Bayside is 2-0.
Eastern View 40, Chancellor 22 (Steven Moss) - Chancellor is 0-2.
Tuscarora 21, Woodgrove 14 (J.J. Jackson) - Woodgrove is 1-1.
Miscellanea:
-- In a development that surprises nobody, the VMI game will only be on ESPN3. Two weeks from now, of course; the first bye week is next week. Ordinarily you'd think before the VMI game is a rotten time for a bye week, but it's probably not the worst thing to have it after that Oregon game.
-- I often complain that I don't have enough of a chance to talk about soccer, thanks to a combination of it being undertelevised and overshadowed, so I took the opportunity to watch the men take on Clemson on Friday. It didn't go well. Overall impression was of a UVA team that had better ball skills than their opponent but was much worse at space and timing, and either chased balls they shouldn't or didn't chase ones they should. Result: defensive breakdowns and little offensive pressure and a 2-0 loss. I wouldn't call it discipline - more like a lack of good recognition, leading to bad spacing and being slow to realize danger on the defensive side.
There won't be a chance to watch the men's team on TV for another month, but the women will be on ESPN3 against Pitt in a couple weeks.
In fact, I've decided the most disappointing part about the game was not anything that actually happened (playcalling, interceptions, big plays given up, etc. etc. - the problem is that there are just too many to pick one) but that they all happened with UVA wearing its classiest uniforms. I'm glad and all that they picked a big game to wear the "traditional"** look but now they probably never will again, at least not this season.
I have to give Oregon this, too: Often, when I'm watching a blowout, it doesn't seem like one. The losing team will just keep doing things a little bit worse than the winning team and by the end of the game it's like 45-7 and I realize, dang, that wasn't actually competitive. No such restrictions this time. I think it's because of the number of times we got gashed for big plays, or maybe it's because of things like big long touchdowns immediately following a pickoff, or maybe just because every time there was an important play, we came out on the wrong side of the outcome.
Complicating matters, of course, is BYU's dominating win over Texas. I seem to recall playing really good defense against BYU. Cougars fans must wonder how on earth they went basically nowhere against a defense that just gave up 9 yards a carry to Oregon and then exploded for 550 rushing yards against Texas. I'm allowed to interpret this however I want, and so for my own sanity I say that we really do have a good run defense, maybe even a really good run defense, but Oregon is special and unique. Plus also, Marcus Mariota was only 14-for-28 passing, which isn't that good, and UVA is allowing only a 40.6% completion rate to opposing quarterbacks. David Watford's passing has been kind of crummy, and so has Logan Thomas's, and VT is allowing only a 36.8% completion rate, and so in the department of way too early predictions, that game against the Hokies is really going to put a stellar air assault on display.
Oh well. At least Greyson Lambert didn't fire up a QB controversy, right? Ah, that's not a nice thing to say. I shouldn't say that.
Time for the prediction review:
-- At least two of UVA's running backs, one of which is Kevin Parks, will improve on their BYU rushing total by at least 10 yards. Well, Khalek Shepherd did, because he carried for 46 yards with 45 of them coming on one play. Parks did not, however. Oregon's run defense played much better than I gave them credit for, a major reason for the blowout since UVA could accomplish very little on the ground.
-- UVA's TEs and RBs combine for more catches than their WRs. By a lot, too. 21 to 10. By themselves, Jake McGee and Zach Swanson fulfilled this particular prophecy. Oregon's corners were at least as good as advertised, and I advertised them as comprising "one of the finest secondaries in the country." Darius Jennings caught three passes for -2 yards, which is a huge statement by the Duck cornerbacks. I didn't even realize he'd caught as many as three passes.
-- Watford throws more INTs than TDs. Even when making this prediction I had really hoped for a better than 0-to-3 ratio, but there you are.
-- Oregon breaks at least one TD run of at least 60 yards. Mariota's 71-yarder to open the scoring certainly qualifies. At that point I was regretting not making the prediction "at least three runs" and if I had, I would still have given myself this one because the only reason some of those runs weren't longer is because Oregon was given such nice field position in the first place.
-- Oregon has more than twice as many rush yards as passing yards. I thought for sure I would get this one right, but then the box score shows only 350 rush yards against 207 passing yards. I feel like I ought to give myself this one for the very reason above, but I'll let it slide.
-- Mariota is the only Oregon QB to throw a pass. I have to give at least that much to our defense; at least we'll keep it close enough to keep the scrubs out of the game. I blame the offense for my failure at this prediction, actually.
Going 3-for-6 this week (with one that could've easily made it four) makes me 4-for-10 so far on the season, which is a respectable start. And I'm now 1-1 both straight up and against the spread after winning this week's bet.
Notes from the rest of the ACC:
-- I think you definitely have to give the conference some credit this year for having, now, two statement wins against the SEC, thanks to Miami this week. The ACC-SEC battle this year has been much closer to even. If anyone besides Syracuse would play a Big Ten team we could probably match up pretty well there, too.
-- Don't look now, but Boston College is 2-0. Two weeks from now they'll probably be 2-2, and they still have an uphill battle for bowl eligibility, but I was feeling pretty good about myself after watching the Eagles' defense stuff Wake Forest.
-- Another team I'm feeling pretty good about, or at least, I'm feeling pretty good about my prediction about them: NC State. Michael Strauss - the former Hoo, yes - shredded them for 300 yards, and the Pack barely escaped Richmond.
Senior Seasons feature:
Williams 39, Cummings 33: Will Richardson missed the game, his team's third straight loss to start the season. Cummings is 0-3.
Oscar Smith 42, Lake Taylor 2: Andrew Brown had 4 TFL, 2 sacks, and forced and recovered 2 fumbles in Oscar Smith's dominating, nationally televised win over Lake Taylor. Oscar Smith is 1-0.
Oaks Christian 57, Upland 28 (Jeffrey Farrar) - Upland is 0-2.
Tampa Catholic 13, Central Catholic 10 (Caanan Brown) - CCC is 1-1.
Episcopal Academy 21, Interboro 7 (Evan Butts) - Episcopal is 2-0.
Bayside 14, Princess Anne 0 (Quin Blanding) - Bayside is 2-0.
Eastern View 40, Chancellor 22 (Steven Moss) - Chancellor is 0-2.
Tuscarora 21, Woodgrove 14 (J.J. Jackson) - Woodgrove is 1-1.
Miscellanea:
-- In a development that surprises nobody, the VMI game will only be on ESPN3. Two weeks from now, of course; the first bye week is next week. Ordinarily you'd think before the VMI game is a rotten time for a bye week, but it's probably not the worst thing to have it after that Oregon game.
-- I often complain that I don't have enough of a chance to talk about soccer, thanks to a combination of it being undertelevised and overshadowed, so I took the opportunity to watch the men take on Clemson on Friday. It didn't go well. Overall impression was of a UVA team that had better ball skills than their opponent but was much worse at space and timing, and either chased balls they shouldn't or didn't chase ones they should. Result: defensive breakdowns and little offensive pressure and a 2-0 loss. I wouldn't call it discipline - more like a lack of good recognition, leading to bad spacing and being slow to realize danger on the defensive side.
There won't be a chance to watch the men's team on TV for another month, but the women will be on ESPN3 against Pitt in a couple weeks.
Monday, August 5, 2013
camp questions
It's here. Yay? The first day of fall camp. If you like you can call it the first day of football season. Personally I wait until Monday of the first game week for that, because that's when I get this machine moving into its football rhythm, but today is just fine too if it suits you.
I do not write a full-blown preview of the season until I see how camp went, because stuff always changes. Always. But I do whet your appetite just a little every year with what I think are the questions that we need to answer by the end of August. Something a little more specific than just "what are the freshmen going to look like?" That is what we'll do today. These are the issues I think are most important for this year's practices.
1. Will Mike London keep his promise to pick a quarterback and stick with him?
You'll note that the QB thing is most emphatically not "Lambert or Watford?" It doesn't matter. It's a different question than last year entirely. When the choice was between Rocco and Sims, it was a question of experience and stability vs. dazzling potential. It mattered a bit more. This year it doesn't. Watford has played a little, but his limited run in 2011 isn't very informative and so much has happened since then that it wouldn't be fair to base any judgments on it. Both are close to equally inexperienced.
So no, I don't think it matters whether the coaches choose Watford or Lambert, and anyway it looks like the answer is leaning toward Watford. Really, I have minimal patience for people who pick one (especially when the candidates have been on the field so little) and root for that one to win and then get all pissy on message boards when their choice disagrees with the coaches. It smacks of individual over team, it starts unnecessary fights, and its arrogant to think you're that much smarter than the coaches when you don't get to see anything of practice, the film room, or the weight room. So the real question is: Are we going to have to put up with the wishy-washy stuff again? After two years of platoonery, it's clear that it doesn't work and probably stunts the growth of both QBs involved. There's a reason very smart coaches have said that if you have two quarterbacks, you don't have any. 1 + 1 = 1/2. If just one quarterback takes all the starters snaps this season, it'll produce benefits both this year and in future years. If not, we'll probably look back at the London era and decide that the reason it was shorter than the Groh era was because he couldn't ever make up his mind about quarterbacks.
2. How will we deal with the Sean Cascarano situation?
Cascarano's hip is more and more sounding like a medical scholarship waiting to happen. At the very least he's not ready for the start of camp, and at this point, it's a bonus if he can play at all. Tough situation for the team to lose an experienced senior who's capable of playing both tackle and guard. Cascarano probably would've lined up at RG, so for starters, the coaches need to decide who takes his place (Conner Davis would be the leading candidate) and then, who steps up to the two-deep. Might Ross Burbank see some action at guard as well as being the backup center? (Currently, Jackson Matteo is listed as the starter.) Ryan Doull is listed as the backup LG and Sean Karl the third-string RG. That's getting into redshirt freshman territory.
The line is otherwise fairly set. Jackson Matteo enters camp as the starting center, and that's the only other place where it looks like a change is possible (though not wildly likely), barring further injury. Morgan Moses and Jay Whitmire look pretty set as the tackles, and Luke Bowanko will have a starting role regardless of where he plays - which is LG at the moment.
3. How much playing time will Taquan Mizzell get?
Kevin Parks is probably going to get carries regardless. Khalek Shepherd keeps getting talked up, and we barely know a thing about Kye Morgan, who redshirted last year. (And just as a wild card, LaChaston Smith starts off the fall listed as a running back. Not terribly surprising, since Smith talked about wanting a shot there, and the depth chart is a little thin at tailback. But I think ultimately, Smith lands back on defense.)
Most of this won't matter if Mizzell is all that's been advertised. Parks is a fixture, but Shepherd and Morgan probably won't get in the way if Smoke is Smoke. Mizzell is said to be an outstanding pass-catcher in addition to all his physical talents as a ballcarrier, which only adds to the likelihood of seeing him on the field. How big will his role be? We'll probably know by the end of camp whether he'll see starters carries or not.
4. Can Jake McGee round out his game?
McGee got a few votes for the preseason all-ACC team because he's one hell of a pass-catching weapon, as demonstrated last year. But as a blocker he's not there yet, or at least, wasn't last year. He's up 15 pounds from last season, a good sign in that regard as long as it doesn't detract from his fluidity downfield. If he can really mature into being a true all-around tight end that can road-grade linebackers in the running game, protect against blitzers in pass-blocking, and go downfield as a receiver, he's got the chops to be first-team in the conference at some point.
5. What does the two-deep look like at defensive tackle?
Losing Justin Renfrow was a nasty hit to the depth there. You've got David Dean and Brent Urban as the starters; that's a good foundation. DT generally requires three really good options for a rotation, though, or the starters will wear down. Can Marco Jones be ready? (He might be needed more at DE, too.) The rest is freshmen. Andre Miles-Redmond is coming off a redshirt year, and there's true freshmen Tyrell Chavis (after FUMA-shirting) and Donta Wilkins. Any or all of them might have to show up on the field at some point, but fall camp will be crucial in establishing a pecking order there.
6. Who wins the placekicking battle?
Ian Frye and Dylan Sims are the main candidates. Let's hope at least one of them can kick well enough that by October, watching the kicker trot onto the field isn't a reason to have a nervous breakdown.
Obviously, there are all sorts of other things to be worked on. It'll be interesting to see how the schemes of Jon Tenuta and Steve Fairchild develop. Same goes for the special teams expertise of Larry Lewis, and Tom O'Brien's contributions to game management, but these won't really be noticed until game time. And yeah, I do kinda want to see what the freshmen will look like, both the true and the redshirted variety. All this in just four short weeks; it'll be game time any minute now.
I do not write a full-blown preview of the season until I see how camp went, because stuff always changes. Always. But I do whet your appetite just a little every year with what I think are the questions that we need to answer by the end of August. Something a little more specific than just "what are the freshmen going to look like?" That is what we'll do today. These are the issues I think are most important for this year's practices.
1. Will Mike London keep his promise to pick a quarterback and stick with him?
You'll note that the QB thing is most emphatically not "Lambert or Watford?" It doesn't matter. It's a different question than last year entirely. When the choice was between Rocco and Sims, it was a question of experience and stability vs. dazzling potential. It mattered a bit more. This year it doesn't. Watford has played a little, but his limited run in 2011 isn't very informative and so much has happened since then that it wouldn't be fair to base any judgments on it. Both are close to equally inexperienced.
So no, I don't think it matters whether the coaches choose Watford or Lambert, and anyway it looks like the answer is leaning toward Watford. Really, I have minimal patience for people who pick one (especially when the candidates have been on the field so little) and root for that one to win and then get all pissy on message boards when their choice disagrees with the coaches. It smacks of individual over team, it starts unnecessary fights, and its arrogant to think you're that much smarter than the coaches when you don't get to see anything of practice, the film room, or the weight room. So the real question is: Are we going to have to put up with the wishy-washy stuff again? After two years of platoonery, it's clear that it doesn't work and probably stunts the growth of both QBs involved. There's a reason very smart coaches have said that if you have two quarterbacks, you don't have any. 1 + 1 = 1/2. If just one quarterback takes all the starters snaps this season, it'll produce benefits both this year and in future years. If not, we'll probably look back at the London era and decide that the reason it was shorter than the Groh era was because he couldn't ever make up his mind about quarterbacks.
2. How will we deal with the Sean Cascarano situation?
Cascarano's hip is more and more sounding like a medical scholarship waiting to happen. At the very least he's not ready for the start of camp, and at this point, it's a bonus if he can play at all. Tough situation for the team to lose an experienced senior who's capable of playing both tackle and guard. Cascarano probably would've lined up at RG, so for starters, the coaches need to decide who takes his place (Conner Davis would be the leading candidate) and then, who steps up to the two-deep. Might Ross Burbank see some action at guard as well as being the backup center? (Currently, Jackson Matteo is listed as the starter.) Ryan Doull is listed as the backup LG and Sean Karl the third-string RG. That's getting into redshirt freshman territory.
The line is otherwise fairly set. Jackson Matteo enters camp as the starting center, and that's the only other place where it looks like a change is possible (though not wildly likely), barring further injury. Morgan Moses and Jay Whitmire look pretty set as the tackles, and Luke Bowanko will have a starting role regardless of where he plays - which is LG at the moment.
3. How much playing time will Taquan Mizzell get?
Kevin Parks is probably going to get carries regardless. Khalek Shepherd keeps getting talked up, and we barely know a thing about Kye Morgan, who redshirted last year. (And just as a wild card, LaChaston Smith starts off the fall listed as a running back. Not terribly surprising, since Smith talked about wanting a shot there, and the depth chart is a little thin at tailback. But I think ultimately, Smith lands back on defense.)
Most of this won't matter if Mizzell is all that's been advertised. Parks is a fixture, but Shepherd and Morgan probably won't get in the way if Smoke is Smoke. Mizzell is said to be an outstanding pass-catcher in addition to all his physical talents as a ballcarrier, which only adds to the likelihood of seeing him on the field. How big will his role be? We'll probably know by the end of camp whether he'll see starters carries or not.
4. Can Jake McGee round out his game?
McGee got a few votes for the preseason all-ACC team because he's one hell of a pass-catching weapon, as demonstrated last year. But as a blocker he's not there yet, or at least, wasn't last year. He's up 15 pounds from last season, a good sign in that regard as long as it doesn't detract from his fluidity downfield. If he can really mature into being a true all-around tight end that can road-grade linebackers in the running game, protect against blitzers in pass-blocking, and go downfield as a receiver, he's got the chops to be first-team in the conference at some point.
5. What does the two-deep look like at defensive tackle?
Losing Justin Renfrow was a nasty hit to the depth there. You've got David Dean and Brent Urban as the starters; that's a good foundation. DT generally requires three really good options for a rotation, though, or the starters will wear down. Can Marco Jones be ready? (He might be needed more at DE, too.) The rest is freshmen. Andre Miles-Redmond is coming off a redshirt year, and there's true freshmen Tyrell Chavis (after FUMA-shirting) and Donta Wilkins. Any or all of them might have to show up on the field at some point, but fall camp will be crucial in establishing a pecking order there.
6. Who wins the placekicking battle?
Ian Frye and Dylan Sims are the main candidates. Let's hope at least one of them can kick well enough that by October, watching the kicker trot onto the field isn't a reason to have a nervous breakdown.
Obviously, there are all sorts of other things to be worked on. It'll be interesting to see how the schemes of Jon Tenuta and Steve Fairchild develop. Same goes for the special teams expertise of Larry Lewis, and Tom O'Brien's contributions to game management, but these won't really be noticed until game time. And yeah, I do kinda want to see what the freshmen will look like, both the true and the redshirted variety. All this in just four short weeks; it'll be game time any minute now.
Thursday, November 15, 2012
game preview: North Carolina
Date/Time: Thursday, November 15; 7:30
TV: ESPN
Record against the Heels: 54-58-4, depending on how you view their history of cheating
Last meeting: UNC 28, UVA 17; 9/17/11, Charlottesville
Last weekend: UVA 41, Miami 40; GT 68, UNC 50
Line: UNC by 3
Injury report:
Virginia -
OUT FOR SEASON
S Pablo Alvarez, DT Marco Jones, WR Mario Nixon
OUT
none
DOUBTFUL
CB Maurice Canady
QUESTIONABLE
None
PROBABLE
K Ian Frye, DE Billy Schautz, S Anthony Harris
North Carolina -
- doesn't like to play nice, and doesn't release injury reports. But they won't have their kicker, in case you're wondering.
RedemptionQuest continues as the Hoos try to salvage their season. Now UVA's two oldest rivals stand in the way of the postseason, and only the fact that this is at home and the VT game is in Blacksburg is keeping me from outright declaring this the toughest of the two remaining games. You know what's at stake here.
-- UVA run offense vs. UNC run defense
Top backs:
Kevin Parks: 140 carries, 660 yards, 4.7 avg., 5 TDs
Perry Jones: 114 carries, 395 yards, 3.5 avg., 2 TDs
UVA offense:
136.7 yards/game, 3.85 yards/attempt
88th of 124 (national), 7th of 12 (ACC)
UNC defense:
137.9 yards/game, 3.49 yards/attempt
25th of 124 (national), 3rd of 12 (ACC)
Before you ask, yes, UNC's own personal GT nightmare has a little bit of an effect on their numbers, to the tune of a little less than half a yard per carry. So what we're looking at really is one of the best run defenses we've seen all year.
UNC runs a 4-2-5, kinda. UVA has seen some 4-2-5's this season, with limited success against them, but trying to run on a 4-2-5 isn't that different than trying it against a basic 4-3. UNC employs a safety, Gene Robinson, in a position they call the Ram, and his primary responsibility is run defense. This way they can go into a nickel, if they like, without changing personnel, but when UVA shows run, Robinson is no more a safety than Laroy Reynolds.
The other neat difference is that Robinson, in playing further back than a regular linebacker, can see more of the field and thus can be used as a hedge against counters and other misdirection. That leaves the regular linebackers free to crash the first thing they see, instead of taking a split second to hesitate and diagnose. This they do quite well. UNC's two linebackers are a pair of playmakers, especially Kevin Reddick, who's got 14.5 TFL this season.
Not much relief on the D-line, either. DT Sylvester Williams is an absolute load. DE Kareem Martin is too. Between them they combine for 24.5 TFL, and in case you're wondering, only three teams in the country have more TFL than UNC.
Against Maryland we were facing statistically one of the best run defenses in the country, and we gashed 'em. I don't see that happening here. UNC has more playmakers than Maryland does; a lot more. And no, using the GT game for optimism is a bad idea, and I think you know why that is. Once you nullify Joe Vellano, you've more or less dealt with Maryland; UNC can bring them from every angle. With an offensive line that's still finding itself, I'm awfully pessimistic about this part of the game. It's such an ugly matchup that I'm getting a glass of rum, right now, to make the rest of the preview easier to write. The rest of this post is brought to you by Sailor Jerry.
-- UVA pass offense vs. UNC pass defense
Quarterbacks:
Michael Rocco: 136/221, 61.5%; 1,585 yards, 12 TDs, 8 INTs; 7.17 yards/attempt
Phillip Sims: 103/179, 57.5%; 1,203 yards, 8 TDs, 4 INTs; 6.72 yards/attempt
Top receivers:
Darius Jennings: 42 rec., 521 yards, 4 TDs
Perry Jones: 41 rec., 341 yards, 0 TDs
UVA offense:
282.4 yards/game, 7.0 yards/attempt
80th of 124 (national), 9th of 12 (ACC)
UNC defense:
254.2 yards/game, 7.2 yards/attempt
68th of 124 (national), 7th of 12 (ACC)
I don't like quarterback platoons. What do I like even less? Screwing around with what's working. And I hate to admit it but the platoon is working. It shouldn't, but it is. It shouldn't work because Rocco is a quarterback that needs to not be looking over his shoulder in order to produce. And Sims needs experience, not half-games, to learn to make the touch and timing throws. And yet here we are, 4-6 instead of 2-8.
UNC has a very good pass rush, and it's going to come from the interior because Sylvester Williams and Kevin Reddick (the linebacker) have 10.5 of UNC's 24 sacks. Kareem Martin will also be a problem. Pass rush aside, though, UNC can be thrown on. Lots of quarterbacks this year have had very good days against UNC's defense. I suspect we may see something similar to what we saw against Miami, with the middle available for use. UNC has better safeties than Miami does, but Gene Robinson isn't a pass defender and neither is linebacker Tommy Heffernan.
UNC's corners, Jabari Price and Tim Scott, are solid. But one thing that's been key to UVA's aerial assualt these past two games is that we're finally getting the contributions we've been expecting from all sides of the receiving corps. I think Jake McGee will be a matchup nightmare for UNC. Of the three linebacker-types on the field (Robinson, Reddick, Heffernan) the best-equipped to handle McGee is Reddick, who has by far the best combination of size and athleticism. As you might imagine this means opportunity. If this is executed well, UNC can be forced to pick a poison: risk McGee being open for big chunks of yardage, or take Reddick out of the run defense.
This is not to mention the effectiveness of the newfound three-headed monster at WR. What it means to the offense to have Dominique Terrell playing at a high level is now as plain as it could ever have been. Terrell, Jennings, and Tim Smith can give secondaries nightmares if they all play to the level they've each demonstrated. Then it's all on the quarterback just to get the ball there.
That's not really as easy as it might sound, given that Sims and Rocco have now alternated being the star of the game. It seems that one reason the platoon has worked is that both are prone to awful games, but both of them having the same bad game is less likely. And this game is going to be on them, because the run game won't serve much of a purpose except to hopefully keep the Heels honest.
-- UNC run offense vs. UVA run defense
Top backs:
Giovani Bernard: 142 carries, 1,008 yards, 7.1 avg., 11 TDs
A.J. Blue: 73 carries, 393 yards, 5.4 avg, 8 TDs
UNC offense:
201.0 yards/game, 5.19 yards/attempt
18th of 124 (national), 3rd of 12 (ACC)
UVA defense:
143.8 yards/game, 4.16 yards/attempt
66th of 124 (national), 8th of 12 (ACC)
Scary. Dude: this guy is averaging 7 yards a carry! We have a pretty good run defense. And I'm legitimately concerned what this guy Bernard is gonna do to it, especially if we break out the same tackling performance we did last Saturday. Yes, Duke Johnson is pretty good himself, but it wasn't just on him that the tackling effort was crummy.
UNC brings a complete set of weapons to the fight. Gio Bernard would be getting Heisman consideration if he hadn't missed a couple games with a knee injury. A 262-yard performance against Virginia Tech inflates his numbers a little bit, but still. There's your workhorse. A.J. Blue is the bulldozing short-yardage brute; at 6'2", 225, he's a very effective goal-line and fourth-down hammer. Romar Morris is the change-of-pace scatback. All three average better than five yards a carry.
There's a very solid offensive line, too. It's missing one piece: RT Brennan Williams went down in the Duke game and is lost for the season. The rest of the line is there, and it's good.
UVA has its work cut out for it. The matchup between lines will be huge. Either side has the capability to claim ownership of the trenches. The tackling must be much better than it was against Miami, or all is lost. I think if Heel fans are looking for Bernard to roll with 7 yards a carry, they'll be disappointed; he has, in fact, been trending gradually downwards ever since the VT game, to the point where GT's horrible defense actually held him under five yards a carry. If the Hoos can do that, it would neutralize a massive piece of UNC's attack. Not sure they will, but there has to be a correlation between losing Williams and the downward trend in Bernard's numbers, hasn't there?
-- UNC pass offense vs. UVA pass defense
Quarterback:
Bryn Renner: 219/347, 63.1%; 2,736 yards, 20 TDs, 7 INTs; 7.89 yards/attempt
Top receivers:
Erik Highsmith: 46 rec., 511 yards, 2 TDs
Giovani Bernard: 38 rec., 411 yards, 4 TDs
UNC offense:
287.7 yards/game, 7.9 yards/attempt
33rd of 124 (national), 4th of 12 (ACC)
UVA defense:
205.3 yards/game, 6.4 yards/attempt
29th of 124 (national), 2nd of 12 (ACC)
Quietly, sneakily, UVA has brought to bear one of the best pass defenses in the country. That's without a lot of sacks and with a super-young secondary. (I think that the lack of sacks has, in a perverse way, made our pass defense look better. Most teams' pass rush is good enough to get to the quarterback. Ours is not, but it's good enough to almost get there, and to bat down low-thrown passes. That means that most teams get their sacks included in their run defense stats, while our pass rush that almost gets there has those plays turn into incomplete passes instead.)
Anyway, that's the good news. The bad news is that our defense had no answer whatsoever for Larry Fedora's spread attack last year when he was employing it at Southern Miss. Maurice Canady is doubtful for this game, but let's hope that's premature the way Eli Harold was "out" last week and then was not. UVA will need to employ its full depth chart in the secondary, because Fedora is a spread coach and likes three-wide formations. Like UVA, he uses the full range of options in pass-catching. Gio Bernard gets a lot of receptions, and why wouldn't he? I would get that guy the ball too. Tight end Eric Ebron actually leads the team in receiving yards. Erik Highsmith, at 6'3", will be a difficult cover for UVA's smallish corners, as will Quinshad Davis (36 catches, 463 yards) at 6'4".
You'll recall that Southern Miss just killed us last year with shortish completions delivered with deadly accuracy. When Renner is really firing, he can do the same thing. But he's prone to the occasional off day, which he had in a loss to Wake Forest and a narrow win over Miami. Neither are good pass defenses.
Renner is a right-hander, but UVA might be well-advised to put pass rushers Ausar Walcott and Eli Harold on his throwing side, so as to avoid LT James Hurst and run them at Travis Bond instead, who's slid over from guard to fill Williams's spot at tackle. Don't expect much, though. UNC has only allowed 10 sacks all year. This one's on the secondary; they must be effective, or they'll allow UNC's offense to be multidimensional and exceedingly difficult to stop.
-- Outlook
They have a good run defense, Giovani Bernard, an efficient passing attack, and one of the better O-lines in the conference. Why are the Heels only 6-4, with losses to two of their instate rivals? Search me. I believe Heels fans would chalk it up to a defense that's not as good as it looks on paper, and perhaps the growing pains of learning a new system on both sides of the ball.
All I can go by is what my own eyes tell me, though. UNC looked pretty good in the VT game, and on paper, they're tough as well. Plus, by the looks of things, they didn't spend one second of their bye week prepping for Georgia Tech, and just went all-in on Virginia prep. I suspect the loss of placekicker Casey Barth will be worse on paper than in real life; replacement Thomas Moore has kicked in games before (most of last season) and isn't a disaster. UVA will have to force UNC into a worse game than their on-paper averages have shown this season, and play better than they did last week. It's a tough hill to climb.
-- Prediction summary
-- UVA's backs average about 2.5 yards a carry.
-- Jake McGee has a big game, with a per-catch average of about 15 yards and at least 3 receptions.
-- UVA's quarterbacks combine for at least a 300-yard passing game.
-- Giovani Bernard reverses his downward trend and averages about 5.5 yards a carry.
-- One of UNC's receivers has a six-catch day, or better.
Final score: UNC 31, UVA 21
-- Rest of the ACC
-- Florida State at Maryland, 12:00: Should be fun to see what happens when a freshman linebacker tries to throw against Florida State's defense. FSU clinches the Atlantic with a win.
-- Virginia Tech at Boston College, 12:30: I'm not sure whether to root for VT, in case it sets up the Bowl Eligibility Bowl, or against them for obviousness. Guess we'll know by late Thursday night.
-- Miami vs. South Florida, 3:00: The very real chance exists that the ACC could have just four bowl-eligible teams. To avoid that, let's hope the 5-5 Canes don't biff this one.
-- Duke at Georgia Tech, 3:30: Will greatly simplify the Coastal race.
-- Wake Forest at Notre Dame, 3:30: I don't know about you but I already consider this an in-conference game.
-- NC State at Clemson, 3:30: Clemson will know by game time whether or not they can win the Coastal, and probably they can't.
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