game preview: Georgia Tech

Date/Time: October 9, 3:30 PM

TV: ESPNUVA

History against the Yellow Jackets: 16-15-1

Last matchup: GT 34, UVA 9; 10/24/09 in Charlottesville

Last week: FSU 34, UVA 14; GT 24, WF 20

Line: Georgia Tech by 10

Opposing blogs: From The Rumble Seat

Uniform combination: blue jersey, orange pants

Injury report:

OUT

WR Bobby Smith
WR Tim Smith
TE Joe Torchia

DOUBTFUL - none

QUESTIONABLE

FB Terence Fells-Danzer
C Mike Price

PROBABLE

OT Landon Bradley
WR Kris Burd
LB Darnell Carter
RB Raynard Horne
WR Brian Oden
TE Colter Phillips

Other useful stuff:
GT season preview
FTRS Q&A
Other half
Updated depth chart

Is this the biggest game of the season? No, but ask around and you'll find a faction of the fanbase that wants this one more than any other this year. Any other. In some circles, the game discussion starts and ends with two words: Al Groh. Tech's Paul Johnson hired Groh to install his 3-4 defense, and the results have been mixed so far, giving UVA fans plenty of reason to believe in the chance of beating the ex-head coach.

HOW WE CAN WIN

- Groh is Groh. You think Al Groh will throw what the FTRS boys call the Grohfense out the window for the UVA game? Detractors and defenders alike can agree on this: Groh doesn't mix things up for the sake of it. He brought what he knows to Georgia Tech, which means they'll be running exactly the same defense UVA ran for nine years. The same defense Mike London ran as defensive coordinator. You know where I'm going with this.

- Big-time safety help on run defense. GT's passing game has been ineffective all season. Joshua Nesbitt is completing passes at under a 40% clip, and the wide receivers have caught just 15 of Nesbitt's 25 completions for an average of 10.9 yards a catch. That's a far cry from 2009 when Demaryius Thomas was the passing game, and averaged over 25 YPC. Bottom line: there's nothing scary about Tech's receivers Stephen Hill and Tyler Melton, and I'm totally happy to let Ras-I Dowling and Chase Minnifield deal with them and cheat the safeties up to help in run support. The corners should be instructed to stick with their receivers - Dowling and Minnifield make one of the best CB tandems in the league and should have little trouble - and the safeties should crash the line of scrimmage and focus on stopping the run.

HOW WE CAN LOSE

- Predictability. So London knows the GT defense. Yup, and Al Groh knows the UVA offense. He even feels confident enough to point out to the media that UVA still (despite the many coordinator changes and the head coaching change) runs a lot of the same stuff Groh ran for Billy McMullen. This is the same style of offense Groh likely preferred. Groh is a wizard on defense, and if Bill Lazor allows UVA to fall into too many patterns, it'll get shut right down. GT's defense may have trouble executing but there's something about knowing what's coming that makes that problem go away.

- Changing to the 4-3 defense. Yes, I worry about this. The 3-4 is uniquely able to deal with Johnson's triple option. Because it already demands the use of a big nose tackle that can clog the middle, it can take away the middle option just by being itself, and with fewer players. That leaves more players to roam the edges, spy the QB and RB, and shut down the running game. It can turn those consistent four- and five-yard gains into one- and two-yarders. The 4-3, being what the majority of college teams play, is what this offense was designed to attack. London and Jim Reid need to find a way to neutralize this inherent advantage. Especially if they're going to insist on using a 245-pound defensive tackle.

- Poor passing game. Nothing invigorates the GT offense more than the ability to dominate in time-of-possession, and nothing facilitates that kind of domination like three-and-outs on offense brought about by incomplete passes. An efficient, well-run passing game won't guarantee victory here, but an inaccurate outing by Verica will likely guarantee a loss.

HOW THE GAME WILL GO

I like UVA's chances a lot better without Rodney McLeod - or any of the defensive backs for that matter - on the injury report. I tell ya though: for all that we didn't know about this team following the first three games, we don't know much more after the fourth. It doesn't help that GT is still kind of a work in progress themselves. The Jackets' offense isn't a high-powered Ferrari - it's more like a smooth four-cylinder engine with insanely good gas mileage. Only, one of the cylinders is misfiring, thanks to the lack of a wide receiver to make the passing game go. Mileage may vary. And the switch to the 3-4 is a big shift, as far as these things go. Not quite on the scale of Rich Rodriguez bringing the ninja spread to one of the Big Tenniest of Big Ten schools, but the growing pains are similar at Tech.

Remember, Wake Forest is one of the conference's worst teams, and Tech barely beat their 4th-string quarterback. So this is not the GT of the past two years. Still: we have our own growing pains, and it's still a safe bet that the offense will still have more bad times than good on Saturday.

So....what? Very few outcomes would surprise me on Saturday. GT is a team ripe for a blowout and you know how UVA teams of late have pulled surprise blowouts out of their asses when least expected. So even with that, I'd just shrug and chalk it up to a developing pattern. I'm feeling too wishy-washy about this game to make an actual prediction, so let's put it this way: the outcome that would not-surprise me the most would be a close loss. We're on the road, after all.

REST OF THE ACC

Virginia Tech vs. Central Michigan, 12:00
Boston College @ NC State, 12:00
Clemson @ North Carolina, 3:30
Wake Forest vs. Navy, 6:30
Florida State @ Miami, 8:00
Duke, Maryland: bye week

more baseball in football season, but also football

Today, a break from the heavy stuff. Those season previews are no joke to write, man. We'll catch up on a little bit of the goings-on for Hoos in the pros.

First, a little fluff on John Phillips and Kevin Ogletree from the Cowboys' official site. Should be good news that the official site writer is putting stuff out there on these guys, right? And speaking of Cavalier wide receivers, Billy McMullen has been released by Seattle, and signed with the Lions yesterday. This probably is not significant - the Lions basically need warm bodies to run receiver drills with so many of them out, and McMullen is a long, long shot to make the roster. I mention this mainly just because it's cool as a Lions fan that McMullen's onboard, however long it lasts. Hey, you never know. Detroit's had good luck with UVA receivers in the past.

And speaking of early departures, Matt Packer has decided to join that club. This surprises me, frankly. Packer was picked in the 32nd round and I figured a good senior season would cut that draft round in half or so. All is quiet on the Tyler Cannon front; Cannon has four more days to sign if he's going to do so.

That makes three very reliable arms we have to replace instead of two, but Jeff White has your answer to that, as Branden Kline has turned down sixth-round money from the Red Sox to come to UVA. Outstanding. Kline has the usual sick and twisted stats of a kid who's obviously too good for high school - in his case, a 0.66 ERA and two strikeouts an inning - and should come in ready to contribute. Based on limited but highly effective summer league stints, Will Roberts and Justin Thompson could be ready to assume a larger role, and we should also be able to lean more heavily on Shane Halley. So fear not friends - the pitching is poised to get better, not worse.

I told you K.T. Harrell wasn't done moving up ESPN's list. He checks in now at #86 on the ESPNU 100 with a ranking of 93, a nice boost from the 90 he had before he committed. Regan and Harris don't make it, and neither does Trae Golden, but a few of our other targets are there: Kyrie Irving at #6 (!), James Johnson at #69, Michael Cobbins at #85.

Lastly we have - recruiting board! Yes! Actually boo. As with previous weeks, more names are dropping off than jumping on board. I have only two addition: LB Quayshawn Nealy, who we offered, and CB Louis Young, who's already decommitted twice from Stanford. Young claims to be a soft verbal to Stanford, but: riiiiiiight.

And the cuts are coming hard and heavy. CB Urell Johnson surprise-committed elsewhere, after, in reverse order: talking about taking all year to decide, decommitting from Southern Miss, surprise-committing to Southern Miss, and talking about taking all year to decide. So as a "verbal", he's off, for now, and would it surprise anyone to see him back at some point? Also gone are: LB Khairi Fortt, QB Munchie Legaux, DE Kareem Martin, and DT Bruce Gaston, all of whom came out with top threes or fives or sixes or whatever and didn't say Virginia when they did it. Fortt actually probably eliminated us a long time ago. Legaux has done all manner of mind-changing throughout his recruitment, but I think we were more of a novelty than anything there anyway. Martin is a little bit surprising; Gaston less so, but disappointing nonetheless - we need a DT in this class and Gaston was one of three we're focusing on. I'm getting antsy for a commitment here - it's been about five weeks.