game preview: Georgia Tech

Date/Time: Saturday, October 31; 3:00

TV: RSN/ESPN3

Record against the Jackets: 17-19-1

Last meeting: GT 35, UVA 10; 11/1/14, Atlanta

Last weekend: UNC 26, UVA 13; GT 22, FSU 16

Line: GT by 6

Part of the reason I was bitching about following this football team, is that it's really stinkin' hard to come up with a narrative for anything.  This is the spot where I like to talk about What This Game Means, but what it means is the same thing every week anymore: either one more loss closer to the end of the season or a week-long reprieve.

This one means quite a bit to Georgia Tech - a team that was supposed to contend, now facing down the barrel of no-bowl-dom, but staving off execution by upsetting Florida State last week.  With their most loseable remaining game turned into a win, GT now cannot afford to completely reverse that equation, so while coming off an emotional big win is usually a good time to catch a team, that's less likely to be the case Saturday.

-- UVA run offense vs. GT run defense

Top backs:
Taquan Mizzell: 90 carries, 371 yards, 4.1 ypc, 2 TDs
Albert Reid: 37 carries, 163 yards, 4.4 ypc, 1 TD

UVA offense:
125.43 yards/game, 3.66 yards/attempt
111th of 128 (national), 13th of 14 (ACC)

GT defense:
164.88 yards/game, 4.73 yards/attempt
94th of 128 (national), 13th of 14 (ACC)

Could it be that UVA's running game is on a genuine upward trend?  The ground game surpassed 200 yards against UNC for the first time this season, and Smoke Mizzell picked up 117 yards; his previous career best was 66.  Daniel Hamm added 70 - mostly on one carry, but that makes two very long pickups in three games for the run game, and it gets harder to ignore them the more they're produced.

UNC had a pretty forgiving defense, but so does Georgia Tech.  Four of their opponents - all good ones - have reached that 200-yard threshold.  Alcorn State had 166.  Truth is, very few running backs have had unproductive days.  Adam Gotsis is a legitimate playmaking DT, but like David Dean, he's usually double-teamed and can't get the help he needs.  GT is most vulnerable on the outside, where the DEs are undersized and there's no playmaking linebacker to clean up.  (There's also no real nose tackle to be found; the defensive tackles are all better suited to the three-tech, but someone has to hold down the fort at the nose, usually Jabari Hunt, and he's not really up to the task.)  The team tackle leader is MLB P.J. Davis with just 54, and the next-most is 36, owned by strong safety Jamal Golden.

No doubt this team is setting me up for disappointment again, but there's reason to be more optimistic about the run game right now than at any previous point this season - including the very beginning.  Continuity along the O-line is certainly helping.  I think Jay Whitmire is finally rounding back into form.  Maybe the best sign is that I went "aw shit" when Jackson Matteo briefly went down during the UNC game - instead of just rolling my eyes at once again having to shuffle the O-line.  You can move the ball on Georgia Tech - and if the past two games can be an indicator, UVA just might do it.

-- UVA pass offense vs. GT pass defense

Quarterback:
Matt Johns: 134/221, 60.6%; 1,580 yards, 12 TDs, 12 INTs; 7.15 ypa, 127.7 rating

Top receivers:
Taquan Mizzell: 41 rec., 466 yards, 3 TDs
Canaan Severin: 33 rec., 458 yards, 3 TDs
T.J. Thorpe: 10 rec., 187 yards, 1 TD

UVA offense:
230.6 yards/game, 7.0 yards/attempt
79th of 128, 11th of 14 (ACC)

GT defense:
194.8 yards/game, 6.8 yards/attempt
55th of 128, 9th of 14 (ACC)

On the flip side, the passing game has chosen this moment to hit a downslide.  While the running game hit 200 yards last week, Matt Johns missed that mark for the first time this year, and by a lot, too.  A lot of that's on him.  Not every INT was his fault last week - but the one he lofted ten feet over Canaan Severin's head sure was.  It goes without saying he needs to erase those turnovers.

Gotsis remains the primary threat in this area, as he's a solid up-the-middle pass rusher.  Otherwise, GT finds it tough to generate a pass rush without blitzing, and that's not something they do often.  DC Ted Roof prefers a zone scheme and has been known to throw six defensive backs out there more often than a lot of coordinators.  The top pass defender in the secondary is D.J. White, with two picks and five break-ups.

You often see it said about quarterbacks, "we just have to get some pressure on him."  This of course is a close cousin to "we need to not turn the ball over," but with Johns, he does seem like one of those quarterbacks whose performance suffers more than usual from being pressured too much.  And unfortunately the offensive line lets that happen more than it should.  But a bend-don't-break scheme is exactly the kind of thing Steve Fairchild game-plans against.  If the opposition wants to play zone and let you amass six-yard completions all day, Fairchild will greedily slop that up.  I could see that working out.

-- GT run offense vs. UVA run defense

Top backs:
Justin Thomas: 107 carries, 400 yards, 3.7 ypc, 6 TDs
Patrick Skov: 81 carries, 331 yards, 4.1 ypc, 6 TDs
Marcus Marshall: 57 carries, 508 yards, 8.9 ypc, 4 TDs

GT offense:
283.38 yards/game, 5.60 yards/attempt
16th of 128, 2nd of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
165.86 yards/game, 4.57 yards/attempt
87th of 128, 9th of 14 (ACC)

No need to overdo this.  By now you know what GT does.  You also know how to stop it: rigidly disciplined assignment football and stepping on, over, or around players who cut-block you.  Disciplined assignment football left this team a long time ago and never bothered with a forwarding address.  You can't stop this run consistently with half the team getting so easily redirected.  UVA hasn't successfully stopped the GT attack for a long time, and this team looks especially susceptible.

-- GT pass offense vs. UVA pass defense

Quarterback:
Justin Thomas: 52/118, 44.1%; 915 yards, 10 TDs, 6 INTs; 7.75 ypa, 127.0 rating

Top receivers:
Ricky Jeune: 15 rec., 319 yards, 3 TDs
Micheal Summers: 8 rec., 120 yards, 2 TDs
Mikell Lands-Davis: 7 rec., 169 yards, 1 TD

GT offense:
120.9 yards/game, 8.0 yards/attempt
38th of 128, 4th of 14 (ACC)

UVA defense:
248.4 yards/game, 8.1 yards/attempt
109th of 128, 14th of 14 (ACC)

The Hoos will be without Tim Harris for this game, which is probably OK given Harris's propensity to give up the big play and GT's propensity to look for it.

For GT, Ricky Jeune is nicely filling the big-and-tall receiver role that they like to feature prominently in what little passing game they have.  Everything's pretty much as usual here too, except that Justin Thomas has been less accurate than most GT triple-option QBs, especially last year's version of Justin Thomas.  Defend the GT pass game by not getting suckered in by what looks like the 17th run in a row.  Also been difficult for our defenders.

-- Favorability ratings

Run offense: 4.5
Pass offense: 4
Run defense: 1.5
Pass defense: 3

Average: 3.25

-- Outlook

Can UVA stop the triple option?  No.  And that's basically what it boils down to.

I do expect an improved offensive performance, at least on the ground.  Or at least, for last week's success to continue.  But as with last week, the run game can be good but very unlikely enough to carry the team.  The run game almost certainly limited the UNC scoring opportunities in the very cliche way of controlling the clock and giving the defense rest etc. etc., but you can't hold that particular horde off forever.  Sooner or later you have to try and stop what you can't stop.  And GT is probably the best losing-record team in the country.  They're not as bad as their wins and losses show.  That'll out, too, and GT will be on the path to reviving their bowl hopes while UVA gets put in the position of having to win out to make it.

Final score: GT 35, UVA 17

-- Rest of the ACC

Byes: none

North Carolina 26, Pittsburgh 19 - Thu. - First game among the three heavyweights of the Coastal.

Louisville @ Wake Forest - Fri. 7:00 - Wake's last game against an unranked team.

Syracuse @ Florida State - 12:00 - Always bet on a team at home that just lost a really tough one - especially if their opponent lost to UVA.

Virginia Tech @ Boston College - 12:30 - Excellent chance - believe it or not - for BC to pick up their first ACC win.

Clemson @ NC State - 3:30 - Next two games mean the season for Clemson.  It's playoffs or bust this year.

Miami @ Duke - 7:00 - The Canes were embarrassed last week and Duke struggled to get past VT; watch for Miami to pull off the upset in this one.  Also, three decades of football just went "WTF" at that characterization of a Miami win over Duke.

catching up

Let's pretend for a minute that this is a UVA blog and that we should talk about a few UVA things that have gone on.  Not training camp, mostly; it's never been my style to ruthlessly dissect every nugget, because most of them are the same claptrap every year.  Defensive coordinators talk about their aggressive defense; somebody is "really making his mark" and then promptly disappears the moment the games begin; the schemes are "adding new wrinkles" or "focusing on the basics" and either is an improvement.  Like clockwork.  I prefer to wait til it's all over and then sift through the results.  So maybe a few football things, but not all.

-- The Maryland lawsuit saga is finally over, with both sides agreeing basically not to bother each other any more and no more money changing hands.  The ACC has withheld about $31 million, and agreed not to go after any more in exchange for Maryland not trying to get any of it back.  One Sabreite theorizes, based on whatever source he has, that the settlement has to do with a future ACC Network, and the lawsuit being a real drag on those plans because the ACC would've had a hard time calling itself damaged by the loss of Maryland while at the same time firing up the money machine.  

That may be, but I have a simpler (albeit not mutually exclusive) theory: now that Maryland's officially gone, collecting any further damages requires actually being written a check by Maryland rather than simply not giving them any money.  This was unlikely to happen without an order from whatever was the highest court that deigned to hear the case following the usual lineup of appeals, which means that if the ACC really wanted to pursue this, they probably weren't getting paid until like 2018.  Maryland's case was always tenuous and slightly nonsensical - it was based on the idea that since they didn't vote for the higher exit fee they shouldn't have to pay it.  Accepting that argument would more or less require any private organization to have unanimous consent of its members to do anything at all, so it was bound to go nowhere fast.  Maryland had an excellent incentive to just let the whole thing drop.

-- I include this football article mainly to point out the likelihood that the Hoos will have neither Dominique Terrell nor Jay Whitmire this coming year.  Best guess: the coaches will do everything they can to get Whitmire in the lineup only if they get the notion that he won't get a medical redshirt (which would give him a 6th year of eligibilty.)  If they think he can get the NCAA waiver, he'll sit the year.

-- This is an excellent article, I think, on freshman guard B.J. Stith.  B.J. has some unique challenges in front of him, following in dad Bryant's footsteps at UVA, and you really get the impression that both of them understand the nature of it.  And that B.J. is more than mature enough to handle it.

-- Speaking of handling things, Evan Nolte went out and did silly college things and we now get to know about it because he's a basketball player and not just some dude.  Actually the story is sort of funny.  CPD went easy on him, which is nice.

-- ESPN released their "Big Monday" schedule (I think Monday's kind of an annoying day for the big weekly hoops showcase, but whatever) and guess who leads the ACC in appearances?  UVA has games featured against UNC, Pitt, and Syracuse.  Only UNC has as many as three games featured.  Duke and UNC will still have their rivalry hyped to the moon and back, but still.

-- Cleveland is becoming the home of UVA sportsters of all types.  Tim Smith signed with the Browns last week; this sees him join Joe Harris, of course with the Cavaliers, and Kyle Crockett pitching for the Indians with Mike Papi in the Indians' system with middle-A Lake County.  Smith's chances of making the Browns' final roster are certainly slim, but exposure is exposure.

Cleveland is all well and good, but personally I'm having even more fun following the exploits of Artie Lewicki (middle-A West Michigan) and Whit Mayberry (high-A Lakeland) in the Tigers' system.  Both are pitching very, very well, in case you were wondering.

kickoff

ACC media days are going on, so I think it's time to say goodbye to the offseason.  Not that it lasted very long.  What would you rather be, a UVA fan where the offseason lasted a month, or a Tech fan where it lasts eight?

I can start writing football previews as soon as the last piece of media days comes out - the preseason all-ACC team.  So I think the first one will be Wednesday.  Being that I save UVA's for last, the football kickoff around these parts will only be a few odds and ends of thoughts today.

-- The football roster is out.  It came out after the basketball roster, which would be a bit odd except I'm never fully capable of accounting for the behavior of the athletic department, especially when it comes to football and/or public relations.  (I'd guess the football roster release is timed for media days, but hell if I know.)

Anyway, the main thing to check for: Missing names.  And there are a few.  We knew of some transfers already: Jake McGee, Kye Morgan, and Demeitre Brim, to Florida, Stony Brook, and Central Florida, respectively.  Not seen on the roster, with no explanation as yet: Tyrell Chavis, C.J. Moore, Marco Jones, and Anthony Cooper.

The impact to UVA's roster is mainly theoretical, as none had ever played much if at all.  Chavis's career was imperiled from the word go, for reasons which have been purposely kept out of the public eye.  Moore fell out of favor with the new defensive staff.  Cooper and Jones represent a fair bit of missed opportunity, particularly Cooper, about whom fans will always wonder why he got immediately moved to safety, buried, and never got a shot at receiver.

That much attrition puts the roster at 81 scholarship players, so, with 18 seniors and a smallish 2014 class (i.e. plenty of room to work in some early enrollees from '15) it's possible, in an ideal non-hot-seat-coach world, to barrel past the limit of 25 players with no problem.  The actual problem might be finding enough players - good players, not guys we stole from Liberty - to fill the class.  Between attrition, plenty of room, and the difficulties of the trail, any coaching change this year will crush our depth something fierce.

-- As if there weren't enough attrition, this little gem came out of media days too: "Mike London says LT Jay Whitmire will "likely" miss the start of the season due to back issues."  Oh, goody.  Can't wait to see what the O-line looks like without its best veteran.  There's a reason I harangue on the depth issues there.

-- You've also got the preseason team poll coming out today.  Florida State took 109 of 112 first-place votes in the Atlantic Conference; guess which was the only team not to get any first-place votes in the Coastal?

It's easy to say we're really blowing a big opportunity here, what with such parity existing in the Coastal, but I'm looking a little deeper.  There are 112 voters and we got 142 points in the poll.  Math skillz tell me that somewhere between 5 and 30 voters picked UVA not-last in the division - and five would mean those five picked us second, so it's probably much closer to 30.  Another step or two of logic tells us this about the ballots of those that didn't put UVA in the cellar: those people think a 2-10 team is better than another team that somebody thought is the best in the division.  Pitt and Georgia Tech are both someone's champion, and likely enough, someone's worse-than-UVA.  That's parity alright.

Also, UNC got the second-most #1 votes but is 4th; VT got the 4th-most #1 votes but also is the only Coastal team picked to unseat FSU as ACC champ.

-- I've updated the depth chart by class and will do so again if and when a fall-camp depth chart is published.

weekend review

No review of the weekend's events would be complete without discussing the depth chart changes, so let's get right on that.  In ascending order of importance, these are at tight end, linebacker, wide receiver, O-line, and punt returner.

-- Zach Swanson's lack of presence probably means an injury from which it's going to take a while to come back.  Too bad, because his play early in the season was strong.  But his absence isn't why the offense sucked, either.

-- Demeitre Brim moves from strong-side to weak-side LB.  I think this is a subtle way of saying Max Valles will be on the field more, and that the SLB position is becoming more and more of an extra pass rush than a traditional Sam role.

-- Wide receiver.  "Or" shows up everywhere.  No starters this week except those that earn the job in practice by not screwing up, is how to read that.   My guess is that the de facto impact will be small - for one thing, Darius Jennings's participation in the construction of such an exquisite pile of shit was surprising and probably short-lived.  Here's betting he doesn't drop a thing all week.  The rest I'm not so sure about, so we'll just have to see come game time.

-- And the much-maligned-and-deservedly-so O-line.  The five-best-guys philosophy is on full display with Jay Whitmire moving to the problematic RG position and Eric Smith taking over at tackle.  Cody Wallace moves to LG behind Luke Bowanko, which is code for you'll never see him again because Bowanko is considered one of the rocks.  Wallace just got buried.

I'm less sure what it means that Michael Mooney moves to backup LT - I think that's probably a promotion of sorts.  Sadiq Olanrewaju definitely got promoted; even though he's behind Smith (obviously) that's better than being behind Morgan Moses.  It might seem like Whitmire got demoted (tackle to guard, after all) but it's really more a function of him having a couple years on Smith and therefore being more versatile.

The center battle is back on, too, probably not least because of Burbank's bad snap.

-- Finally we come to punt returner - where no change whatsoever was made.  This is bad in a couple different ways.  Mike London can't be on the accountability train if he's letting slide the single stupidest play of UVA's season so far.  It's fortunate that Dominique Terrell is from northern VA or this would really open the door to 757 favoritism charges.  You had a lot of that undercurrent with Phillip Sims; allowing Terrell's drunken balloon chase to go unaddressed would practically blow those doors open if he were from Chesapeake or something.

The final verdict is that these are generally positive changes taken one by one.  Wallace just has never been an ACC-level lineman.  Putting a week-long microscope on the receivers is a good idea - David Watford has enough trouble finding open receivers without them dropping the throw when he does.  But London's playing Russian roulette with his credibility over what should be a very simple call at PR.  Can't fully trust what he says about fixing problems when he won't fix the most visible one.

FWIW, London has said that will be a practice competition too, but actions are speaking louder than words here.  Until I see someone besides Terrell back there I won't believe it - and really, even then, it shouldn't be a competition, Terrell should simply sit and watch, because he's hurting the team as bad or worse than any other individual, the way he fields kicks.

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The ACC didn't produce too much in the way of surprises this week, except in Chapel Hill.  Quick takes on the week's action in the league:

-- UNC is definitely leaving me with egg on my face for picking them to win the Coastal.  ECU racked up 55 points on them, so maybe our offense can score a touchdown or two.

-- Maryland looks better and better each week, even when they don't play.  West Virginia's bounce-back win over Oklahoma State makes the Terps look awfully good.

-- VT's win in the battle of the Techs actually puts them in great shape, with UNC looking like a bunch of chumps and Miami being the only likely roadblock in the Coastal now.

At the one-third mark of the season, it's time to reassess the remaining schedule.  Beating BYU was a great step toward bowl-game respectability; losing to Pitt was almost as big a step back.  The remainder of the season breaks down like so.

Likely wins: Ball State, Duke.  Not "likely" in the traditional sense - just that you can't be a bowl team period if you can't beat those teams.

Likely losses: Miami, Clemson.  These would be the teams that our defense almost certainly can't stop enough for the offense to catch up.

Swing games: Maryland, GT, VT, UNC.  And let's be real, we're not exactly favored in most - or any - of these.  But if we can get past Ball State and Duke, we need only win two of these four.  And all these teams have serious flaws, although if that's true of Maryland, they've yet to be exposed.  Our defense, though, is good enough to at least give us a prayer of seeing a win in all four of these.

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Senior Seasons feature:

Peachtree Ridge 49, Habersham Central 0: Jordan Ellis only needed seven carries to have his biggest day of the season - he racked up three touchdowns, two of them on runs of 68 and 73 yards, and finished with 197 yards.  Peachtree Ridge is 5-0.

Episcopal 38, Chichester 20: Evan Butts had three catches for 111 yards.  Episcopal is 5-0.

Upland 42, Santiago 41 (Jeffery Farrar) - Upland is 3-2.
Central Catholic 38, Trinity Catholic 14 (Caanan Brown) - CCC is 4-1.
South Granville 56, Cummings 27 (Will Richardson) - Cummings is 1-5.
Ocean Lakes 49, Bayside 16 (Quin Blanding) - Bayside is 2-3.
Oscar Smith 56, Lakeland 6 (Andrew Brown) - Oscar Smith is 4-0.
Chancellor 37, Millbrook 3 (Steven Moss) - Chancellor is 1-4.
Briar Woods 45, Woodgrove 16 (J.J. Jackson) - Woodgrove is 2-2.

camp questions

It's here.  Yay?  The first day of fall camp.  If you like you can call it the first day of football season.  Personally I wait until Monday of the first game week for that, because that's when I get this machine moving into its football rhythm, but today is just fine too if it suits you.

I do not write a full-blown preview of the season until I see how camp went, because stuff always changes.  Always.  But I do whet your appetite just a little every year with what I think are the questions that we need to answer by the end of August.  Something a little more specific than just "what are the freshmen going to look like?"  That is what we'll do today.  These are the issues I think are most important for this year's practices.

1. Will Mike London keep his promise to pick a quarterback and stick with him?

You'll note that the QB thing is most emphatically not "Lambert or Watford?"  It doesn't matter.  It's a different question than last year entirely.  When the choice was between Rocco and Sims, it was a question of experience and stability vs. dazzling potential.  It mattered a bit more.  This year it doesn't.  Watford has played a little, but his limited run in 2011 isn't very informative and so much has happened since then that it wouldn't be fair to base any judgments on it.  Both are close to equally inexperienced.

So no, I don't think it matters whether the coaches choose Watford or Lambert, and anyway it looks like the answer is leaning toward Watford.  Really, I have minimal patience for people who pick one (especially when the candidates have been on the field so little) and root for that one to win and then get all pissy on message boards when their choice disagrees with the coaches.  It smacks of individual over team, it starts unnecessary fights, and its arrogant to think you're that much smarter than the coaches when you don't get to see anything of practice, the film room, or the weight room.  So the real question is: Are we going to have to put up with the wishy-washy stuff again?  After two years of platoonery, it's clear that it doesn't work and probably stunts the growth of both QBs involved.  There's a reason very smart coaches have said that if you have two quarterbacks, you don't have any.  1 + 1 = 1/2.  If just one quarterback takes all the starters snaps this season, it'll produce benefits both this year and in future years.  If not, we'll probably look back at the London era and decide that the reason it was shorter than the Groh era was because he couldn't ever make up his mind about quarterbacks.

2. How will we deal with the Sean Cascarano situation?

Cascarano's hip is more and more sounding like a medical scholarship waiting to happen.  At the very least he's not ready for the start of camp, and at this point, it's a bonus if he can play at all.  Tough situation for the team to lose an experienced senior who's capable of playing both tackle and guard.  Cascarano probably would've lined up at RG, so for starters, the coaches need to decide who takes his place (Conner Davis would be the leading candidate) and then, who steps up to the two-deep.  Might Ross Burbank see some action at guard as well as being the backup center?  (Currently, Jackson Matteo is listed as the starter.)  Ryan Doull is listed as the backup LG and Sean Karl the third-string RG.  That's getting into redshirt freshman territory.

The line is otherwise fairly set.  Jackson Matteo enters camp as the starting center, and that's the only other place where it looks like a change is possible (though not wildly likely), barring further injury.  Morgan Moses and Jay Whitmire look pretty set as the tackles, and Luke Bowanko will have a starting role regardless of where he plays - which is LG at the moment.

3. How much playing time will Taquan Mizzell get?

Kevin Parks is probably going to get carries regardless.  Khalek Shepherd keeps getting talked up, and we barely know a thing about Kye Morgan, who redshirted last year.  (And just as a wild card, LaChaston Smith starts off the fall listed as a running back.  Not terribly surprising, since Smith talked about wanting a shot there, and the depth chart is a little thin at tailback.  But I think ultimately, Smith lands back on defense.)

Most of this won't matter if Mizzell is all that's been advertised.  Parks is a fixture, but Shepherd and Morgan probably won't get in the way if Smoke is Smoke.  Mizzell is said to be an outstanding pass-catcher in addition to all his physical talents as a ballcarrier, which only adds to the likelihood of seeing him on the field.  How big will his role be?  We'll probably know by the end of camp whether he'll see starters carries or not.

4. Can Jake McGee round out his game?

McGee got a few votes for the preseason all-ACC team because he's one hell of a pass-catching weapon, as demonstrated last year.  But as a blocker he's not there yet, or at least, wasn't last year.  He's up 15 pounds from last season, a good sign in that regard as long as it doesn't detract from his fluidity downfield.  If he can really mature into being a true all-around tight end that can road-grade linebackers in the running game, protect against blitzers in pass-blocking, and go downfield as a receiver, he's got the chops to be first-team in the conference at some point.

5. What does the two-deep look like at defensive tackle?

Losing Justin Renfrow was a nasty hit to the depth there.  You've got David Dean and Brent Urban as the starters; that's a good foundation.  DT generally requires three really good options for a rotation, though, or the starters will wear down.  Can Marco Jones be ready?  (He might be needed more at DE, too.)  The rest is freshmen.  Andre Miles-Redmond is coming off a redshirt year, and there's true freshmen Tyrell Chavis (after FUMA-shirting) and Donta Wilkins.  Any or all of them might have to show up on the field at some point, but fall camp will be crucial in establishing a pecking order there.

6. Who wins the placekicking battle?

Ian Frye and Dylan Sims are the main candidates.  Let's hope at least one of them can kick well enough that by October, watching the kicker trot onto the field isn't a reason to have a nervous breakdown.

Obviously, there are all sorts of other things to be worked on.  It'll be interesting to see how the schemes of Jon Tenuta and Steve Fairchild develop.  Same goes for the special teams expertise of Larry Lewis, and Tom O'Brien's contributions to game management, but these won't really be noticed until game time.  And yeah, I do kinda want to see what the freshmen will look like, both the true and the redshirted variety.  All this in just four short weeks; it'll be game time any minute now.

the recruit: Jay Whitmire

Name: Jay Whitmire
Position: OT
Hometown: Alexandria
School: T.C. Williams
Height: 6'6"
Weight: 290

ESPN: 77; three stars; #70 OT
Rivals: 5.7; three stars; #43 OT; VA #14
Scout: three stars; #30 OT

Other offers: Notre Dame, Penn State, North Carolina, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Boston College, Maryland, NC State, Rutgers, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Duke

This is the good part. Because by this time room in the class was getting way crammed, and the coaches got real choosy about who they took a commitment from, and managed to close on most of the best targets besides. Jay Whitmire was one of the top Northern Va. targets of the year, and got a whole big list of offers real early. The ankle sprain that caused him to miss almost half the season probably prevented a few more, but regardless he was entertaining overtures from Notre Dame as late as November, a couple weeks before his commitment to UVA.

Whitmire is the top OL commit of the class by both offers and scouting services. "Athletic" is the word that gets tossed around the most; you are permitted to believe it on account of the lacrosse he plays. A 290-pound guy playing lacrosse is athletic.

On account of being an offensive lineman and missing half the year, there's not much to say about Whitmire's season, though he did happen to collect a few sacks on the defensive side. Whitmire was easily a Washington Post All-Met pick as a junior; the injury kept him off the list this fall. It probably also cost him his fourth star with Scout, though they didn't drop him too many places in their OT rankings. The rankings can be cruel to a guy with an injury.

Anyway, I wouldn't worry. Whitmire reminds me muchly of Sean Cascarano, except that Cascarano's about 20 pounds lighter and staggeringly ginger. Both are very athletic tackles with similar rankings (if ESPN had bothered) and accolades coming out of high school, and Cascarano's looking like a guy who's going to be very hard to keep off the field in his redshirt sophomore year. If not a starter, he'll still be in the rotation. Whitmire should have a similar timeline. As 98% of linemen do, he'll redshirt, and once 2012 arrives it's not hard to see Whitmire nosing into the two-deep as a redshirt freshman. Following that year, Oday Aboushi and Aaron Van Kuiken graduate, and we should see a lot of Whitmire after that.

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A little housecleaning of the news on the street is in order:

- You know by now that Billy Baron packed up and went back to Rhode Island. I suppose it was inevitable that one of the six freshmen in this class would get squeezed out of the rotation enough to want to leave. Still, it's weird that our association with Baron was less than a year long; the guy only committed last March. Hate to say it after sending so much praise his way when he committed, but the impact here is minimal. Obviously it's got no effect on this year, and Baron was going to have to wait until at least 2012-'13 to get a real shot on the court, especially if Malcolm Brogdon turns out to be just as much all that as he's supposed to.

- Pick three different positions on the football team where we can least afford to have the inevitable attrition this offseason. How about cornerback, center, and linebacker? Welcome to your average UVA offseason. It never fucking fails. It's exactly the way things go at UVA that the guys acting like dumbasses would be the ones standing in between the starters and the totally untested freshmen - or the starters themselves with freshman backups.

In case you're too lazy to click the link, that's starting LB Ausar Walcott, potential starting CB Devin Wallace, and backup C Mike Price, all suspended indefinitely for the ever-popular "conduct detrimental to the team." Walcott's been in trouble with the law in the past, though as I recall it was something really dumb and nothing that went past "why don't you cool off in the back of the car here and then go home." This isn't police stuff, fortunately. Also fortunately, it's not actually the attrition we're waiting for; these three knuckleheads will probably be back after they demonstrate appropriate contrition, dedication, etc. etc.

- The men's tennis team is deserving of at least a quick mention - they're ranked #1, and they've played 67 matches this season and lost two. Eh, not bad. The indoor nationals are approaching - UVA hosted and won them last year - and they'll be going for four in a row in Seattle in a couple weeks. The outdoor season is the real deal (that's the one that earns you an actual NCAA championship) but the men are dominating this season in a way they didn't last year.

weekend review

YeahYeah yyyyyyyeahhhhhhh.......I'd forgotten how sweet it was to beat VT in something that people pay attention to. The Radford game is tomorrow, and I this is what I wrote about it back in October: "There's the distinct possibility that this game will be needed to break a losing streak as long as six games." Instead it's likely to extend a winning streak. Coming off of two road games against theoretically better teams, how's that for a turnaround of expectations?

Expectations are what we're supposed to be keeping in check right now, but you know how hard that can be. Now there's talk of being 12-3 going into the ACC storm, starting with North Carolina. What fun, a big winning streak!

Of the teams that lie ahead, most are certainly the kind on which winning streaks are easily built. The competition gets a lot easier for the next month, but there's still three of those 50/50 type games ahead, and may I remind you we use five freshman and still rely on Mu Farrakhan's roll-of-the-dice method of shooting jumpers? I'll concede that there's the distinct possibility of seven more wins in a row, but I won't let myself expect it.

That's because if we really, really get honest with ourselves, beating VT said a lot more about VT than UVA. OK, yes, I love going into their gym and getting the job done, and Mike Scott is officially a double-double machine and an absolute rock of consistency. What we've really proven is that Tech is not a tournament team, nor are they as good as their preseason expectations. (The same can probably be said about two-thirds of the ACC, so not being part of that unfortunate group bodes very well for our chances.) Our own team is still feeling its way around the court, learning how to win. Maybe they're fast learners. Myself, I'm simply going to enjoy having something to lord over Tech again, and enjoy the ride too, without worrying too soon about where it's going.

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With good news on the basketball court and good news on the recruiting trail it's been an uplifting kind of week. The recruiting board has another orange name, O-lineman Jay Whitmire. Heavily offered, that one. A big deal for Mike London. That gives us the requisite four linemen, a number you pretty much aim for in just about every class so as to build depth where it's most needed. Whitmire looks like the best of the bunch. Changes to the board, then:

- Moved OT Jay Whitmire from blue to orange.

- In response, moved OT Donovan Smith from yellow to red. It's an open secret that Smith likes Penn State mucho, and I'm sure the coaches would take his commitment if he called tomorrow, but they're likely focusing their efforts elsewhere.

- Added WR Brandon Reddish to yellow.

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All three teams with UVA recruits won in the VHSL playoffs this weekend:

- Hermitage 42, Bayside 27
- Phoebus 21, Dinwiddie 13
- Stone Bridge 21, Osbourn 0

Hermitage plays Battlefield for the Division 6 title, and undefeated Phoebus goes against undefeated Stone Bridge in Division 5. Both games are at Scott Stadium, awesomely enough.

Phoebus may be playing without Caleb Taylor, who sustained a "leg injury" during the game. Taylor would almost certainly have redshirted next season anyway, but a long-term injury recovery would etch that in stone.

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Poll study results are also up. Relatively strong bias number this week. Last time there was one this high was for the rankings of the week of 10/23, an eventful week with Wisconsin dropping Iowa, Missouri upsetting Oklahoma, and then-#5 Auburn beating #6 LSU. (Keep in mind that if you're used to seeing the numbers higher than this, it's because I was screwing up the whole time, and found and fixed my mistake last week. That made the final bias number higher than it should have been.) This week's poll is another one in which assumptions were heavily shaken, with Boise falling to Nevada. Hypothesis: I think it's possible this is because voters see the poll results week after week and shift their votes toward the mean a little bit (as in: "hey, maybe I'm overrating so-and-so, they don't end up as high in the poll, I'll knock them back a spot or two"), until something somewhat earthshattering happens and they're forced to think for themselves. Does this actually happen? No idea. It may be something I can test in the final analysis.