Nationals chances are still slim mathematically, but Slim just got fatter

One bad play, one bad inning changes the whole game and the whole emotional dynamic for both teams. Washington can rightly feel that THEY should be up 2-1 instead of down 2-1 and the Giants understandably do not want to go back to Washington http://www.csnbayarea.com/giants/belt-nobody-wants-go-back-washington.

from CSN Bay Area:
Rewind: Bumgarner, Giants throw away Game 3 to Nationals | CSN Bay Area:

And Posey acknowledged the rest – that yes, he was yelling “Three! Three!” as Bumgarner fielded catcher Wilson Ramos’s two-strike bunt with runners at first and second in the seventh inning of a scoreless game. Bumgarner, his face forlorn, later shook his head as he walked out the clubhouse door. “Doesn’t matter,” he said. “He didn’t tell me to throw it into left field.”

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Game Four now becomes almost just as much of a must win for the Giants as it is for the National and the pressure now shifts to the Giants side of the field. These are all factors that cannot be plugged well into a spreadsheet.  So from a purely mathematical standpoint the Nationals odds of advancing increase from 10% to maybe 30-35%, if you add the emotional component, it may be close to a toss-up.

It would help if the top of the order contributes, Blanco and Panik have gone fairly cold last couple of games and the Giants need a break-out from one or both tonight. In fairness to Panik, who was hitting .143 in this series last night, that is about middle of the pack for all hitters in this series. Other than Posey and Rendon, I'm not sure who is really contributing consistently with the bats, the pitching has been simply dominant.

Odds of a Nationals Comback: Slim and slim is still in the building

I think I see where the author gets to his 10% figure.

from Bleacher Report:
Odds of the Washington Nationals Pulling off a Comeback | Bleacher Report:

If Fister can carry the Nationals past Bumgarner, the team could be in line for a favorable matchup in Game 4. As Sam Ryan of MLB Network reports, manager Matt Williams has yet to decide on a starter for that contest. The obvious choices would be either Gio Gonzalez or Tanner Roark.

 Meanwhile, Ryan Vogelsong would likely be slated to get the nod for the Giants, according to Alex Pavlovich of the Bay Area News Group. With an 8-13 record and a 4.00 ERA, the 37-year-old has been shaky throughout 2014.

Winning Games 3 and 4 in San Francisco would clearly swing the momentum in favor of the Nationals. Plus, the team would get the added bonus of playing Game 5 in front of its home crowd at Nationals Park. That decisive clash would see the returns of Stephen Strasburg and Jake Peavy, who would both be pitching on six days' rest. 

....

 Odds of Pulling off a Comeback: 9-1 (10 percent)

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Based on the pitching match-ups as presented if you assume ( I know, I know) that in Game 4, Fister v. Bumgarner the Giants are a 60:40 favorite, the the Gonzalez/Roark v. Vogelsong is a 50:50 toss-up @ SF, and then the Game 5 Peavy v. Starsburg redux is a 50:50 toss-up as well, I get to 10% as well.

The Math: ( 0.40 * 0.50 * 0.50, the Nats winning percentage chances in each game = 0.10  )

Even a best case scenario, where you say Fister is 50:50 vs. Bumgarner on the road and the other two match-up are skewed 60:40 in Washington's favor, you get to an 18% chance of coming back to win the series.

The Math: ( 0.50 * 0.60 * 0.60 ) = 0.18

Even using the best math skills of an Obama economic adviser, wherein you believe the Nats chances to win are 60:40 in each game for the rest of the series, you only get to 21.6% chance of ultimate victory.

The Math: ( Suspend all semblance of reality based of what has gone on in the recent past ) * ( Present numbers that only those who believe in the Tooth Fairy and the Easter bunny would accept ) * (0.60 *0.60 *0.60) = 0.216.

Hey, don't laugh Giants fans and anti-Obama folks, it is a team from Washington.

Maybe they ought to get the patent and trademark people on removing the Washington name from the franchise after they lose the series for besmirching the good name of the District. Or maybe they are representing the area just about right.

It is after all, the Land of Hope and Dreams, right?