After a difficult September, the debate helped Mr. Romney regain the lead in both the Electoral College and the national popular vote

While Mr. Romney appeared to be doing relatively well in the South in the middle of the summer, he was just barely ahead relative to Mr. Cain in the Southern region of the country at the end of September. Thus relative to 2008, Mr. Romney was struggling in many states in this particular region. In terms of the political landscape, it makes no difference if Mr. Romney wins a particular Southern state by 17 points or 21 points. However, it is worth monitoring states where the race is a bit closer. I was monitoring Georgia throughout September, because while it never was a swing state, thing looked a bit closer than they should be of course, Mr. McCain did not do nearly as well as Mr. Bush did in Georgia, but a win is a win. A few weeks ago, we had two polls from Georgia. One showed Mr. Romney winning by a landslide double digit margin, the other was much closer, but still comfortable, so together with other data, I can not only put Georgia off my radar for this election, but for the next few election cycles.
As imperfect as my model is, with the release of more data to the public over the past months, by the end of September, I saw patterns that internal pollsters were seeing earlier in the summer. While every election cycle, there are about 12 to 18 battleground states, there are usually only 5 or 6 states that are truly swing states in terms of potentially tipping the balance to one candidate or the other. By early September, it became evident that at least 7 or 8 states could call themselves swing states, now it does not take too much of a stretch to see we have about a dozen swing or at least quasi swing states.
If an election were held at the end of September, Mr. Obama would have probably won 333 to 205. Mr. Romney would have won North Carolina by less than 2 point and Mr. Obama would have won the remaining swing and quasi swing states and win the national popular vote by 2.6%. The good news for Mr. Romney was that Mr. Obama would be only 247 electoral points without the swing states. In fact, Mr. Romney was behind by less than 1 point in Colorado, Florida and Virginia. Adding these states to Mr. Romney’s total, would put him at 256. He trailed in Iowa and Ohio by less then 2 points. Winning these two tipping point states, Mr. Romney would be up to 180 already and he was within 3 point of New Hampshire and Nevada; winning these states would bring him to 292. Wisconsin and Oregon were quasi swing states and Michigan and New Mexico were close to being quasi swing states. In short, with so many states being up for grabs, it was possible for either candidate to win a significant amount of electoral points without winning the popular vote by a huge margin.

As we enter the official campaign season, Mr. Romney finally takes the lead in the Electoral College.

If we give proper weight of Democrats and Republicans and we look at the records of each polling company, it is not the first time that Mr. Romney leads in the national Popular vote, but it does appear to be the first time that Mr. Romney was able to put together a coalition of at least 270 point. At the end of August, he sat on 268 points, new polling data puts him over the top.

Throughout the summer, Mr. Romney always had a minimum of 205 points in his pocket. He could count on all the McCain states, Missouri and Indiana. And while it was and is a little too close for comfort, North Carolina was always in the Romney column during the summer months. Florida, Nebraska’s 2nd district, Nevada, Iowa, Colorado and even Wisconsin were not firmly in either camp and switched sides throughout the summer. Perhaps due to statistical error, a few of these states actually leaned initially towards Mr. Obama soon after Mr. Ryan was chosen as VP candidate. However, Ohio (with 18 points) went from tipping point state (the most Purplish state) to Burgundy and getting Redder. While it is true, that Mr. Romney has only won one Ohio poll recently, he was able to come very close in a recent Ohio poll in which the Democrats had a significant advantage in voter demographics. Furthermore, a few polling companies have stated that Mr. Romney has had a good week in the 11 or 12 Swing states. After the last Presidential election, I have learned to take internal polls with a grain of salt, but one local candidate told me excitedly that since Mr. Ryan’s selection as VP, not only has Mr. Romney surpassed Mr. Obama in the state of Ohio, but the Romney/ Ryan ticket is doing rather well in Eastern Ohio now. As an aside, I told him that he would be elected to sit in our state capital on his own merit.

With both Florida and Ohio being key swing states, but leaning towards the Romney camp, the Romney total jumps from 205 to 252 EC point. I am not ready to believe my own model, but interestingly, Oregon is also now firmly in the Romney camp to bring the EC total to 259. It has been a long time since we had a poll from Oregon and that poll actually did have Mr. Obama slightly ahead in Oregon. However, two of three polling companies that release regional results claim that Mr. Romney is recently increasing his popular vote in the Western United States faster than the rest of the country, if these regional numbers are even within the margin of error, it would actually be mathematically a little difficult for Mr. Romney to be losing Oregon. Not that approval number mean much, but numbers released a few days ago show that more Oregonians disapprove of Mr. Obama than approve of him. Mr. Ryan was also sent to Oregon to publicly campaign. So perhaps, internal Republican polls are also suggesting that Oregon could in deed be winnable for the Romney camp.

The key state of Colorado joined the Romney camp at the end of August by just a few 10th of a percentage point, but with good swing state and western polling for Mr. Romney this week, Mr. Romney now leads Colorado by more than 2 points and it has thus now become a Reddish Burgundy battleground state instead of a key Purple state, giving Mr. Romney a total of 268 points.

Where do we stand electorally?

Now that it appears that Mr. Romney is going to have more than half the delegates, where does he stand with regards to the General Electoral landscape? It is first good to look at the 2008 results. In terms of per cent, Mr. Obama received 52.935 of the popular vote and Mr. McCain received 45.66%. In short, the GOP candidate got beat by a little more than 7 points. However, since Red states have increased their population a little faster than the rest of the country, if every state were to vote for the same party by the same margin, the gap between Mr. Obama and the GOP candidate shrinks from about 7.3 per centage points to 6.9 points. In part because Red states like Virginia and Colorado moved Blue and in part because Purple states like NH, Iowa and New Mexico went Blue by more than a few points, Mr. Obama has an electoral advantage. Mr. McCain won 173 electoral points. Because of the last census, Mr. Romney would win 179 point simply by winning the same states that Mr. McCain did. While Mr. McCain had a difficult time hanging on to Missouri and Montana to a degree, he barely lost North Carolina and Indiana as well and the second district of Nebraska. Further, while Florida and Ohio were not nail-biters, the margin in both those states was less than 5 points. Assuming that Mr. Romney wins all of those close states, he would be at 253 point. If Mr. Obama hangs on to every state that he won last time, he also sits at 253 points. So if the political landscape shifts right uniformly across the country, VA, CO, NH and Iowa would be the 4 states that decide the 2012 Presidential election. In 2000, Mr. Bush won because of Florida, in 2004, Ohio’s then 20 points put him over the top, a few states NM and Iowa were icing on the cake and in 2008, Colorado was the state that put Mr. Obama over the top as he won that state by about 1.7 points more than he won the national popular vote. While much can and probably will change between now and the election in November, it is possible that Colorado will decide or help decide the 2012 contest. In two thirds of all the states (including all Purplish states,) we have had at least one state opinion poll between the two major candidates. In fact over a dozen states have been polled over the past week, so we have a rather good idea of what is going on in each state as well as the country as a whole. While Real Clear Politics gives Mr. Obama at least a 2 point advantage, if we give more weight to the better polling companies, the gap nationally is probably about 0.1 in Mr. Romney’s favor; essentially a tie. Despite the fact that it is essentially a tie, at this point, the electoral landscape appears to favor Mr. Obama today. Near the beginning of the month, Mr. Obama would have probably won a national election 343 to 195 in the Electoral College and he would have won the popular vote by 1.5 points. So the gap is closing on both accounts. In the beginning of May, Mr. Romney would have won all McCain states plus Indiana and New Hampshire. Also, State-wide polling with regards to Nebraska in early May suggested that Mr. Romney would have won the second district. Polling later in the month suggested that Mr. Obama would hang onto the second District, but recent national momentum for Mr. Romney probably puts the that district back in the Romney column. While, relatively recent polling suggests that New Hampshire is back in the Obama column, North Carolina, Florida and even Ohio have moved into the Romney column to sit him at 253. Polling (both state and national) suggested that Mr. Romney has closed (or widened) the gap with Mr. Obama since 2008 in 47 state, while he has lost ground compared to Mr. McCain in Arizona, Minnesota and Tennessee. While it is understandable that Mr. Romney would lose ground in Mr. McCain’s home state, we might very well have bad (or incomplete) polling from the other two states. In any event, Mr. Romney will hang on to AZ and TN anyway and while Mr. Bush did well in MN, it is certainly not a purple state these days nor a must win for Mr. Romney. On the other hand racking up the score in bright Red states like Utah and the Dakotas and making it closer in costal states that he won’t win anyway does not help Mr. Romney. In short, under the current political landscape, Mr. Romney must win the popular vote by 1 or 2 points in order to win the Electoral College. Mr. Romney is probably lagging in the 4 keys states of 2008 by anywhere from 1 to 3 points. So he is no far from victory. On average, the needle has moved 7 points Red since the last election. While not every state is moving at the same speed, the political landscape is relatively stable. While Mr. Obama won Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Wisconsin by more than 10 points, he won these 4 by less than 14 points. For now, Mr. Obama still leads MN by more than 10 points, but Mr. Romney has cut Mr. Obama’s lead to 5 or 6 points in both PA and WI so these states could potentially be key states. Nevada has become a key state by virtue of Mr. Obama’s gap being cut to 1.5 points in that state. Unless Mr. Romney wins the 4 2008 keys plus Nevada, he must win Ohio where his lead is less than 1 point. Mr. Romney is one and a half points ahead is Florida and is would be difficult to believe that Mr. Romney would be the Electoral College without Florida. So the 6 Key states for 2012 in order of Reddest to Bluest are currently, Ohio, Iowa, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada and New Hampshire. Not a big change from 2008 so far. In fact the only change to the 6 key states so far is that Nevada replaces PA. On a side note, MN moves away from being a potential swing state. Either Virginia or Colorado is the deciding state currently; just like last time. The absolute worst case scenario for Mr. Romney is 206, but he will likely get at least 235 or 253 as a minimum. Mr. Obama should get at least 217 points and at this point it would be difficult to realistically get him under 247. If Mr. Obama does eventually fall into meltdown mode, the next states that we would expect to fall based on 2008 would be New Mexico (a traditional Purple state,) New Jersey (a state that has move Blue over the past few decades,) Oregon (where Mr. Bush narrowly lost back in 2000,) Michigan (the state that put Mr. Reagan over the top both times,) Washington and Maine. Of this group of states, polling suggests that at this point, Oregon is the only state that Mr. Obama is at risk of losing. His lead is about 5 and a half points. However, since we have only had one poll from Oregon, I would have to have my doubts that Oregon is that close. Mr. Romney is probably within 10 points of winning, Maine, New Mexico and New Jersey, but Mr. Obama is still safe for now, the only thing Mr. Obama might have to worry about in this group of states is hanging on to the 1st District of Maine. I suppose one could always question the accuracy of the various polling companies and their methods, but it would appear that both WA and MI are out of reach for Mr. Romney at this point. It was a pipe dream that Mr. Romney could turn his father’s state of Michigan into a key state. It is certainly possible that Mr. Romney might end up winning Michigan if Mr. Obama has a severe meltdown, but MI is not the key state that it was in the Reagan years. If Mr. Obama really falls into meltdown mode, states like Connecticut and Rhode Island might come into play, but at of now the key states are Ohio, Iowa, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada and New Hampshire. While the list of key states might change slightly as the campaign unfolds, all of the key states and the few potential key states have a slightly higher than average Veteran population, this should help Mr. Romney. These states on balance have their fair share of Blue collar working which is a double edge sword. Many Blue collar workers have traditionally voted Democrat, but are not happy with the extreme environmental regulations coming from the current administration. On the other hand, they are not happy with Mr. Romney’s connections to Bain Capital so it is no surprise that we are hearing a lot about Bain and Solyndra in Key states. On a personal note, I am not impressed with the economic policies of either of the 2 main candidates. For the record, while Bain did not create as many jobs as Mr. Romney claims, Bain capital was and is a net positive on the American economy and to be sure, Mr. Romney was a good businessman, but in the end it matters to me not how Mr. Romney carried on his business and personal affairs. The bottom line is that while governor, his record on jobs was 47th in the country. So just like a good eye doctor cannot always fix your teeth, a good business does always govern with good economic sense. Meanwhile Mr. Obama governing record with regards to economics has been even worse. He has presided over and helped cause arguably the second worst economy in America’s history. So one candidate is not a capitalist (or at best a crony capitalists) and the other might have his heart in the right place and pretend to be a capitalist, but has no record of delivering while governing. So I for one am not excited about my choices from an economic point of view. These times call for the extreme Right Wing policies of Governors Walker and Kasich. Despite not having an economic choice, I will vote for Mr. Romney because at least there will be a good possibility that he will appoint good judges. It is difficult to predict exactly how the election will unfold 5 months from now, but since Mr. Romney is close to shoring up at least 253 points, Mr. Obama should be beatable, especially with the economy in poor shape. As Mr. Rumsfeld says ‘you go to war with the army you got.’ I am among those who would not chose such an army, but I guess I’ll cross my fingers and hope for the best.

As one Ohio battle went down to the wire, Mr. Kasich appears to have won the Ohio Civil war by a landslide

On Tuesday, while my own precinct voted 77% to 5% for Mr. Santorum over Mr. Romney, after midnight it was announced that Mr. Romney won the state 37.9% to 37.1%. At best, I may have been responsible for one other Santorum vote in my own precinct besides my vote. I was more concerned about elected Pro-Kasich committee people to our party’s Central Committee, while my own precinct (the only precinct in my county to vote GOP in 2006) was one of the few precincts to vote for both Pro-Kasich Committee people, unfortunately, my State Senatorial District (like about 10 others) split down the middle and vote for one Pro-Kasich Committee person and one anti-Kasich Committee person. Well one is better than nothing.

While the dust still has not technically settled yet as there will be at least one recount, it appears that the Pro-Kasich forces have won 47 of the 66 Ohio GOP committee seats. I went to bed Tuesday night not knowing who won between Mr. Santorum and Mr. Romney. When I woke up Wednesday morning while I found out who won the Presidential race, I only found out how a few committee races turned out as it was difficult to find out results. By the end of that day I was able to figure out the results of 47 of the 66 positions (or 65, since one is vacant.) I did not find information about the other 25 positions or they were still too close to call in some cases. It looked at the time that of those 47 seats, Pro-Kasich forces won or would win 34 seats so already he was up to a simple majority and thus the first goal had been met.

Mr. Kasich himself said:
“We did extremely well and we will have a transition to new leadership," Kasich said, referencing the 66 ORP central committee seats up for grabs last night. "You know the results. We will transition to a new chairman at some point. We don’t know exactly what all the numbers are, but we are very pleased we’re in a position where there will be some changes.”

As the popularity of Mr. Gingrich melts down, Mr. Santorum now leads in national popularity

Mr. Santorum rises over 9 points this week to sit at 37% and take the national lead. Mr. Romney loses about 2 and a half point to sit at 31.2%. While all non Santorum candidates lose something this week, the biggest decliner is Mr. Gingrich, who now sits at 15.1% dropping almost 7 points. Dr. Paul slips less than a full point to sit at 12.9%. Not only did we get a lot of national and state data, one polling company gave us regional data for the South which suggests that Mr. Gingrich is bleeding to Mr. Santorum at a greater rate than the nation as a whole. So now Mr. Santorum leads in the South as well as in the Midwest. So he is on course to land at 892 elected delegates; an increase of almost 400. Both Mr. Romney and Mr. Gingrich lose over 150 projected elected delegates. Mr. Romney sits now at 783 and Mr. Gingrich sits at 298. Dr. Paul slips just a bit to sit at 148. On the one hand, Mr. Santorum currently has momentum; on the other hand, Mr. Romney only needs a slight increase in popular opinion to tie Mr. Santorum in projected delegates mostly because he has a head start in elected delegates. So in any event, we are in for an exciting ride.

I was going to write a post about Ohio only, but for various reasons, I will hold most of my fire and just write part of the story here. On Friday morning, we were all given a heads up that somebody in Ohio was going to endorse Mr. Santorum. I had my hopes up that it would be our great Governor, Mr. Kasich, but it appears that Mr. Kasich will remain neutral. Instead, our AG, Dr. Dewine announced that he was abandoning the Romney camp in favor of Mr. Santorum. Objectively, this is not a bad thing for the Santorum camp; most Santorumites like anybody else will take support wherever they can get it. Even though, I am only an honorary Santorumite instead of a real McCoy Santorumite, I am not a happy camper to have such a clown in my quasi-camp. At least he did not bring his evil cousin with him. I suspect this was a move of political opportunity. Had he stayed in the Romney camp, he would have to justify two years from now to Ohioans why he supported the author of MAcare.

As things get a little more interesting, Mr. Romney hangs on to first place nationally and Mr. Santorum surpasses Mr. Gingrich for second place.

Mr. Romney lost a bit more than a per cent age point this week to sit at 33.7%. Mr. Santorum gains almost 10 points for the week to sit at 27.9%. Mr. Gingrich drops over 7 points to sit at 21.9% and Dr. Paul slips a tad to sit at 13.7% nationally. This past week we had 4 contests. Mr. Romney underperformed a bit with regards to Tuesday’s three contests, Dr. Paul over preformed, but the big story was the collapse of the Gingrich vote and Mr. Santorum benefiting from that. There was not a whole lot of recent polling on Maine, but there were no big surprise from the Northern New England state. Tuesday’s contests were a bit unique because they were essentially, one straw poll and two caucuses. While MO did not elect any delegates, it is inaccurate to say that the other two contests were meaningless. MN and CO elected delegates to be delegates and barring any serious surprises, Mr. Santorum should not have much trouble clearing 50 delegates from those two states. By the end of the week, polling suggesting that the states that voted Tuesday had a national impact. I am pleasantly surprised, skeptical. Even though anti-Santorumites predicted a good week for Santorum, I was surprised that he actually surpassed Mr. Gingrich. At least up until now, I was among those who believed that if Mr. Romney was going to get aeven a serious run for his money, it would come from Mr. Gingrich, not Mr. Santorum. Sure, the reality is that Mr. Gingrich is to the Left of both of them, but he is a more exciting speaker than both of them and more articulate. Mr. Gingrich may not be a Conservative or a man of the people, but he can play the part.

Happy Birthday Mrs. Palin!

Today is a day for celebration for our Palin camp as our Camp leader reaches another year. Perhaps appropriately, in state as in several other state, we are having Alaska type weather as we have several inches of snow on the ground. I did want to go to a minor league hockey game last night to celebrate America's Hockey Mom, but I did not think the roads were safe. So in a few hours I will go to a brunch where the majority of the people will happen to be Republicans, so I will give them pamphlets of Right Wing candidates as my way of celebrating this great day.

P.S. I understand Mr. Romney's birthday falls on Supper Dupper Tuesday this year, so I look forward to hearing how you guys observe your occasion.

Mr. Romney regains the lead nationally

We have limited national polling, but indications suggest that Mr. Romney gained almost 5 points nationally, while Mr. Gingrich lost the same amount. So Mr. Romney has about 34.9% nationally while Mr. Gingrich is down to 29.3%. If trends continue, Mr. Romney will widen his lead soon. Mr. Santorum gains over a point to sit at 18.3% and Dr. Paul slips a tad to sit at 13.8%. About 80 delegates have been elected as Romneyites so far and he should be able to get 965 if state and national polling stands which is an addition of over 150 from last week’s projections. 31 delegates have been elected to the Gingrich camp so far and that figure is projected to reach 709 which is almost a 150 drop since last week. Mr. Santorum has11 elected delegates and he is projected to end up with 246 with is a rise and Dr. Paul is projected to end up with only 171. He has 15 elected delegates so far.

In short, Mr. Romney strengthens his position. However, the delegate race will go on for a time as nobody is projected to get a majority any time soon. The big question is whether Mr. Gingrich can close the gap with Mr. Romney or will he slip further towards third place.

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Mr. Romney looks ready for a big win in Florida, but slips a bit nationally

A week ago, it looked like Mr. Gingrich was trending towards victory in Florida, now it looks like a double digit win for Mr. Romney. In this up and down race nationally, Mr. Gingrich stays rather stable just slipping under the 34% mark while Mr. Romney slips a few point nationally to remain just over the 30% mark. Mr. Santorum almost gains 2 points to sit at 17.3% and Dr. Paul gains over a point to sit at 14.2%. Mr. Gingrich is also rather steady in the delegate count with an 857 elected delegate projection and Mr. Romney slips to 810. Mr. Santorum jumps over the 200 mark at 215 and Dr. Paul climbs slightly to 180. 60 delegates remain uncommitted or other. Note yesterday’s poll number are not including in this analysis due to limited time on my part.

While the last few days of polling show Mr. Romney catching up to Mr. Gingrich nationally, again; it is a bit puzzling why Mr. Gingrich leads at all. After all, Mr. Romney won both Florida debates unlike the South Carolina debates. So it short, at least as of yet, the Florida debates did not move national numbers as much and as fast as the South Carolina debates. However, that could change in the days to come. While the main contest (or dog fight to be a bit more blunt) in between Mr. Romney and Mr. Gingrich, ever since Christmas, there has been a minor dog fight below the radar between Mr. Santorum and Dr. Paul. Last week, radio pundit started to mention this contest below the radar and both non-charismatic candidates were able to at least throw some punches. While it does not matter who comes in third place, the trick for both Mr. Romney and Mr. Gingrich is to either snag Santorum/Paul voters or make the other guy lose a bit of support to the other guy. If the national contest does stay close, it will be interesting and important as to how the Santorum/Paul voters affect the overall contest eventually. No doubt Mr. Romney’s win today will give him some momentum, but how much and how long will it last? I have to agree with Ras this contest will not be over soon, although, Mr. Romney will regain the advantage after tonight.

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Mr. Gingrich is now the front-runner by the slimmest of margins

With South Carolina behind us and Mr. Perry out of the race, Mr. Gingrich leads Mr. Romney 34.1% to 32.4%. Mr. Santorum is at 15.6% and Dr. Paul is down to 13%. What a difference a few weeks and even a few days make. A little less than 2 weeks ago, it looked like Mr. Gingrich was going to slip to third place and Mr. Romney was almost coasting to victory. However, Last’s week’s debate has put Mr. Gingrich on top.

In part because it looks like he won’t make a few state ballots, Mr. Gingrich leads in the elected delegate count by only 10 votes; 854 to 848. Mr. Santorum is third place with 189 votes and Dr. Paul is down to 167. 60 delegates look like they will be uncommitted or other. There is a regional divide shaping up with Mr. Gingrich winning a majority or Southern states and delegates, Mr. Romney doing the same in the Northeast and Mr. Romney holding a modest delegate lead in the rest of the country.


Despite the fact that Mr. Gingrich won endorsements or quasi-endorsements from Mrs. Palin, Mr. Perry and Mr. F. Thompson, the real turning point of the campaign was the debate itself. Prior to that Mr. Romney’s go it alone strategy seems to work. By spending the last few years distancing himself from both Tea Partiers and SoCons, Romney 4.0 would have the moderate vote all to himself and the Conservative vote would be split several ways. However, all of a sudden, Mr. Romney had an absolutely terrible debate, failing to answer simple questions in a savvy way while Mr. Gingrich hit the ball out of the park smashing windows while he was at it. While I for one have my doubt as to whether Mr. Gingrich is nearly as Conservative as he claimed, he defended his positions articulately unlike Mr. Romney. With South Carolinian Conservatives rallying around Mr. Gingrich, Mr. Romney’s divide and conquer strategy was put on hold. His electability argument is also put on hold. The country as a whole scratched their heads and said if this guy cannot debate in his own primary, he cannot go up against Mr. Obama. He has thus lost his front-runner status. While Mr. Santorum and Dr. Paul were decent, unfortunately, neither of them can speak with charisma. So those on the fence are all breaking to Mr. Gingrich instead of an alternative.


At the current moment in time, we are headed to a brokered conservation. However, eventually, one of the two candidates could emerge prior two Tampa. Of course as the establishment is reaching its limit being embarrassed there are whispers of Mr. Romney leaving the race. I doubt this will happen. We are stuck with both him as well as Mr. Gingrich as the main candidates. On the one hand, his ego won’t let him get out on the other hand, after winning this Monday’s debate, there are signs that Mr. Romney might get his act together again. In the meantime is it both sad and entertaining to watch the Romney camp go into meltdown mode lashing out calling everybody stupid and bigoted. How soon they forgot that they are in this mess simply because so called smartest man in the room was not smart enough to do his homework before the debate. RW and I warned them for months what they’d eventually have to face, but they knew better and they were prepared. Well the favor of this month found out that they could no longer just wing it. And as for the bigotry lash outs, these guys also did not have a problem with bigotry when Mr. Cain was on the losing end, but hey.


On the one hand, Mr. Gingrich should win Florida simply from his current momentum. On the other hand, if I have to predict (which is dangerous to do this seasons) I predict that Mr. Romney will eventually get his act together to win the nomination even if it is just kicking and screeching over the finish line. While his judgment is poor, he is not nearly as stupid as last week’s debate performance suggests and he is also a little saner than the TARP on steroids wing of his camp.

Mr. Romney still leads, but that lead has started to slip over the past few days

Mr. Romney still cracks the 35% mark nationally, but that is down almost a point since earlier in the week despite Mr. Huntsman’s endorsement. Mr. Gingrich jumps up over 4 point nationally to be just shy of 21%. Still a way back, but he is on the increase. Until the last few days, it appeared that Mr. Santorum was going to over-take Mr. Gingrich, but the first debate of the week settled the issue of second place in favor of Mr. Gingrich. Mr. Santorum stays stable at 16.3%. Dr. Paul gains almost a point to sit at 15.4%. And ironically, like Mr. Huntsman, Mr. Perry has a mini-surge and gains almost a point to close his bid at 7.4% nationally. In short the dynamics of the race has shifted. Mr. Romney’s poor debate performance combined with Mr. Gingrich’ historic great debate performances has stalled Mr. Romney’s momentum and allowed Mr. Gingrich to challenge him. While Mr. Romney still has a commanding lead, the idea of Mr. Romney getting a quick coronation was putting the cart before the horse to say the least. While Mr. Santorum did well in the debates, his lack of charisma has effectively taken him out of the game.
Mr. Romney loses over 100 delegates since the debate to sit at 1159. Mr. Gingrich jumps to 448. Mr. Santorum this week to sit at 1051; Mr. Gingrich loses over 350 to sit at 550. Dr. Paul rises enough to take third place in the delegate count to sit at 232. Mr. Santorum is stable at 213 and Mr. Perry would have had 68 delegates would been able to stay in the race and maintain his level of support. As things stood a few days ago, Mr. Romney stood to win 45 states. He is now down to 39 or 40. It is not a good week for him as he kind of lost Iowa and will most likely lose South Carolina by at least 5 or 6 point in a few hours. Mr. Gingrich will likely continue to close the gap with today’s up coming win, but since Mr. Romney was more prepared for Thursday’s debate and was able to defend Conservatism without looking like a total fool, he’ll probably rebound into a significant lead eventually. Overall, it is a good thing for all that things are getting slightly more interesting. More people will get involved in the process and both major candidates will have a chance to pull up their socks and get their acts together.

Mrs. Palin’s decision is understandable, but I disagree with it.

I was among those who were not happy the other when my camp leader gave a quasi- endorsement to Mr. Gingrich. My first choice would have been for her to stay out of it and let the people decide individually for themselves, but if she felt that she had to endorse, I would have liked her to choose somebody further to the Right of Mr. Gingrich. Nevertheless, there are plenty of reasons for why she did what she did.


A week or two ago, it looked as if Mr. Santorum would be (could be) the one to give Mr. Romney a run for his money. But, it the tide did not turn before, this week’s debate made it clear that unfortunately, Mr. Gingrich became the leading non-Romney candidate if you will. Mrs. Palin simply followed the old strategy of voting for the least evil or choosing the most Conservative person that has a chance of winning. Personally, I tend to believe that Mr. Gingrich is worse than Mr. Romney and let’s just say I am far from convinced that Mr. Gingrich is more Conservative than Mr. Romney. However, unfortunately, she is probably correct that Mr. Gingrich has a better chance of being the leader of the non-Romney camp than Mr. Santorum. The sad reality is that although Mr. Santorum is not Right Wing enough for some of us, he is too Conservative for the average person who is part of the current GOP universe. To add to that equation, Mr. Santorum is not a native son of the South like Mr. Gingrich so there is another disadvantage. To top it off, while Mr. Santorum had a decent performance during the debate, Mr. Gingrich hit the ball out of the park thereby making Mr. Santorum all, but toast with or without a Palin or any other endorsement. This morning a local politician told me that he was surprise that both Mr. Perry and Mrs. Palin endorsed Mr. Gingrich, but he said that it was probably due to Mr. Romney terrible debate night. He went on to say that Mr. Romney preformed much better on Thursday and showed that the previous debate was just a bad day for him.

My local radio hostess (a Santorumite) was upset at first with Mrs. Palin, said this morning that it was a good move because Mr. Gingrich is the only person that can change the dynamics of the race at least enough to stall Mr. Romney’s coronation and give us a chance to further vet the candidates. Mr. Romney’s poor performance was enough to frighten Republicans like Mrs. Palin into wondering whether he has what it take to win in the general. In short, Mr. Romney needs a chance to improve his game. Some say that Mrs. Palin should have endorsed Mr. Romney in order to brown nose for a cabinet post. Even if she wants a cabinet position, it is doubtful, she’d get one because there is so much distain for Mrs. Palin in the Romney camp that she has nothing to lose by opposing him.

Mr. Romney is now projected to win the majority of delegates

The past week (especially the past few days) have been good for Mr. Romney. He gained over 4% to sit at 35.8% on the eve of Mr. Huntsman’s exit. There is no clear second place person. Even as Mr. Ginrich loses almost 4%, he hangs on to second place with 16.8% of the national vote. Mr. Santorum loses a little more than a point to sit at 16.4%. Dr. Paul rises slightly to sit at 14.6%. Mr. Perry stay stable at 6.6%, perhaps the most ironic item is that Mr. Huntsman actually gains over a point and a half in the week of his exit to end his bid with about 4.2%. Note the ABC national poll is not in this mix.

In large part due to a split in the opposition, Mr. Romney in now leading in every state except for 5 southern states. He has between 30 and 41% in every region of the country so the landscape is somewhat uniform across the country. Even without Mr. Huntsman leaving the race, he gained over 200 delegates this week to sit at 1273. Mr. Gingrich loses almost 200 delegates to fall to 358. Mr. Santorum slips a bit to sit at 213; Dr. Paul gains a bit to sit at 191 and Mr. Perry slips slightly to 71. Finally, had Mr. Huntsman continues to remain in the race and maintain his level of national support; he would have ended up with 16 delegates.

Mr. Romney cracks the 30% mark nationally and Mr. Santorum rises a dozen points nationally as we enter New Hampshire

For those who said Iowa was irrelevant, it got rid of one candidate officially (Mrs. Bachmann,) it strengthened another’s lead (Mr. Romney) and it essentially vaulted another into the first tier (Mr. Santorum.) Mr. Romney sits at 31.4% nationally, Mr. Gingrich still holds on the second with 20.8%, but he is trending downward (losing 8.5% this week.) Mr. Santorum gains over a dozen points to sit at 17.7%, Dr. Paul is at 13.9% (a slight increase) and Mr. Perry drops to 6.7%.

Mr. Romney gains over 100 delegates this week to sit at 1051; Mr. Gingrich loses over 350 to sit at 550. Mr. Santorum gain over 200 this week to sit 251. Dr. Paul goes up a bit to 184 and Mr. Perry slips to 79. In short, Mr. Romney is just a few votes vote of avoiding a brokerages convention so if things keep on their current path he shall be the nominee, but if there is a bump in the road for him, we might be looking at a brokerage convention, but I am certainly not predicting that.

My model for New Hampshire shows Mr. Romney with about 40 to 41%, Dr. Paul gets 18 or 19%, Mr. Huntman cracks the 15% mark. Mr. Santorum cracks the 12% mark and Mr. Gingrich is at 10 or 11%. We have a definite front-runner now with 3 and half candidates in the race. Mr. Huntsman and Mr. Perry are not going anywhere fast. Going into South Carolina, Mr. Romney will essentially have a win and a tie with momentum in SC. While mathematical, NH is the win and Iowa is the tie. In term of the expectation games, if Mr. Romney does not crack 40% in what is essentially home ice (home field) it won’t be considered a huge win. On the other hand, even though winning by a few votes in not impressive, the fact that undecided voters came to the Romney camp in Iowa on the eve of the caucus is at least a victory in the expectations game. In 2008, many then Romneyites complained that SC was neither a typical American state nor even a typical Southern state. Too many Ethnic votes on the coast and too many Independents voting, some claimed. As Mr. Romney appears to be benefiting from a band-wagon effect for now, the current Romney camp is quiet with regards to South Carolina’s iniquities. Whether Mr. Romney win SC by a decent margin, win by a rather small margin or loses by a small, unless he has a meltdown within the next few week, he will at least do respectable enough to maintain some sort of momentum as we approach Super Duper Tuesday.

Mr. Romney got to where he is more by gaining undecided and soft voters than by having supporters of other candidates join his camp yet in large numbers. Mr. Santorum got to where his is to a large degree by gaining former Bachmannites and Gingrichites. However, there are not a whole lot of Bachmanns left to leave the race and at least for now, it does not look like what is left of the Gingrich camp will flock to Mr. Santorum in large number. Perhaps one of the more interesting polls was a PPP poll showing that Mr. Romney beating Mr. Santorum 45-40 in South Carolina. Yes this is one poll and one state and things are still rather fluid, but in short it suggested that if Mr. Gingrich would leave the race, Mr. Santorum would close the gap with Mr. Romney, but Mr. Romney would still have a slight lead. Furthermore, I’d assume that Dr. Paul would stay in and continue to get his 15%. So the big question is when will Mr. Ginrich be out of the race and where will his supporters go. In short, Mr. Romney remains in a good position (in fact a better position) on one hand. On the other, it is becoming clear that Mr. Santorum is becoming the candidate that will challenge Mr. Romney for now if you will. Mr. Santorum’s poor numbers in NH should not prevent him from doing decently beyond NH. His lack of money and organization did not hurt him in Iowa. In fact, he beat expectations and is now benefiting from a mini-surge. Eventually, he is likely to run out of steam. However, he is having a fun ride for now and his national numbers are still trending upward for now.

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USA Today Political Survey

The USA Today has a fun political survey on their web-site, (http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/candidate-match-game) so I took it for fun. I was a bit surprised with the results. Of the 7 candidates listed for the GOP including Mrs. Bachmann, Mrs. Bachmann is supposedly my best fit. What surprised me a bit was that both Dr. Paul and Mr. Perry slightly beat Mr. Santorum in political compatibility. Perhaps I was most surprised that Mr. Gingrich surpassed both Mr. Huntmans and Mr. Romney in political compatibility. If it came down to those 3, I’d nevertheless still have a rather difficult time voting for Mr. Gingrich.

There were 11 issues which can be ranked in order of importance and here is who I supposedly agreed with on each issue:

Afghanistan: No Republican
Energy: Dr. Paul
Health Care: Mrs. Bachmann, Dr. Paul, Mr. Perry, Mr. Santorum and Mr. Gingrich,
Medicare: Mr. Perry
Immigration: No Republican
Type of Experience: Mrs. Bachmann, Mr. Gingich, Dr. Paul and Mr. Santorum
Social Security: Dr. Paul and Mr. Perry
Climate Change: Mrs. Bachmann, Dr. Paul, Mr. Perry and Mr. Santorum
Taxes: Mrs. Bachman, Mr. Huntsman and Mr. Santorum
Defense: Mrs. Bachmann and Mr. Gingrich
Gay Marriage: Mrs. Bachmann, Mr. Gingrich, Mr. Perry, Mr. Romney and Mr. Santorum.

I am sure other surveys would give different result, so I’d take it with a grain of salt.

The political landscape on the Eve of Iowa

There are now two contests going on, one nationally and one in the early states. Let’s start nationally. Unlike in the middle of the month, there have not been many national polls released in the Christmas week. Over the past few days, Gallup shows that Mr. Romney has surpassed Mr. Gingrich. Since there is not any other polling companies to confirm that yet, we need to mix in some data from last week. So both main candidates are just under 30% nationally. Mr. Romney is at 28.8% and Mr. Gingrich is at 28.5%. While Dr. Paul seems to have had a good few weeks in the early states, he actually slips a bit nationally to 12.7%. Mr. Perry had a good week nationally to move to 7.8%. Mrs. Bachmann is going the other direction to slip to 6.8 % and Mr. Santorum creeps up a bit to crack the 5% mark and sit at 5.8%.

In terms of the delegate math, apart from a few states tweaking their threshold mark and a few states going back and forth about what to do with their CD delegate allotment, the structure of the delegate math has been stable overall. However, as most now know, back in November, VA tinkered with the amount of signatures needed to get on the ballot and than we found out just before Christmas that only two candidates have enough signatures to get on the VA ballot. Like many states throughout the country, VA give 3 delegates per CD and its statewide delegates are elected proportionately. A candidate must also have at least 15% statewide to get statewide delegates. That is no problem for Mr. Gingrich or Mr. Romney, but the only other person who could possibly crack 15% in VA would be Dr. Paul. Now that it appears that Mr. Romney and Dr. Paul will be the only two on the ballot, cracking 15% will be no problem for either. However, like various other states on the Atlantic coast, VA has a provision that if one candidate gets 50%, they get all statewide delegates. With only two in the race, one of the two will crack the 50%. Apparently, there are no write in allowed, but I assume that there is nothing that says voters cannot spoil there ballots.

Merry Christmas Everyone!

Merry Christmas and a Happy Holiday Season Everyone!

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Are we headed towards a brokered Convention?

Since this is my last post of the calendar year, I’d like to wish a Merry Christmas to Gingrichites, Romneyites, Paulites, Perryites, Bachmannites, Santorumites, Huntsmanites, Johnsonites, Otherites and Undecidedites. In order to have a brokerage convention under the current rules and landscape, the top two candidates need to be close to each other in national support and there has to be at least one other strong minor candidate. While things can and will change, the current landscape is shaping up to lead to a potential brokerage convention.

According CBS and CNN, Mr. Gingrich certainly slipped further over the past few days or so. PPP and Harris do not show a big slip, but over all, he has lost almost 5 per cent to sit at 31.2 %. ABC and Mason-Dixon would suggest that Mr. Romney is the main beneficiary, but Harris and You Gov suggest that Mr. Romney is himself slipping. All in all, Mr. Romney is stable at just under 26 %. With the exception of Mason-Dixon, most polling companies show that Dr. Paul might be the flavor of the week as he gains over 3 points to sit at 13.6%. Mr. Perry gains a full point to get back into fourth place with 7.6%. Mrs. Bachman slips slightly to also sit 7.6%. Mr. Santorum gains a half point to sit at 4.6%.

With the exception of Ohio moving their primary back up to March 6th, there have not been too many delegate rule changes in the past week or two. Because of loss of national support, especially in the Midwest, but also northeast and West, Mr. Gingrich lost over 100 delegates and now sits at 1062. In other words, he has half of elected delegates. Apart from perhaps the South, Mr. Romney did not gain much in any region of the country, but by closing the gap with Mr. Gingrich, he jumps up to 693 delegates. Dr. Paul’s gains were nationwide as he climbs up to 180 delegates. Mr. Perry is still under 100 at 90. Mrs. Bachmann is down to 55 and Mr. Santorum inches up a little further to 34.

I have rejoined the dark side

Growing up in a small village outside of The United States, I was somewhat is the elite class simply because of who my mother was. We were certainly not the first household on the street to get a color TV or any other technological gadget, but we never had to worry about where our next meal was coming from or worry about getting enough presents at Christmas and birthdays unlike some villagers. In fact because of our family position, Santa Claus was not the only one to give us presents at Christmas time. It was even written in the Township by-laws that our street was the first to be cleaned in the event of a storm. Being part of the elite class in a village was not all what is was cracked up to be. Unlike in a urban area, everybody knows your business and they think that you are a brat whether it is true or not. One eventually learns not to make noise. Once some young hot-heads though one small business owner in the village had kids that were too uppity so they fire-bombed his business. My grandfather once warned me that I would be the first one killed if terrorists ever did come to the village because I was the oldest in the family.

I must admit as a kid, I looked down at the average villager. At most they could speak one language fluently while my parents spoke 3 fluently. The villagers had no sense of adventure in music, fashion or cuisine. I would dream of either immigrating to a big American city or have city slickers come to my village to civilize it. In my late teen years, one of my wishes came true as city slickers started to move in. They made more trouble than it was worth and I started to finally appreciate being a villager. As a teen I was a youth representative of my then party. In my early 20s I decided to run for local office. The constituency included 3 townships. At the time I was a bit naïve and arrogant and at first I was not going to campaign in my own village. I figured that as long as I campaign enough in the other 2 townships to make it close, I would win the seat because my last name would carry me in my own township. Somebody older and with more sense told me I needed to campaign in my own village too. I did manage to make this close in the other two townships, but my margin of victory in my own township was also close so on balance I lost the race. I continued to fight for my township at public committee meetings for a time and then I moved to America.

At the Ides of December, Mr. Gingrich slips a little, but still leads

Over the past week, Mr. Gingrich has done well in the Pew, NBC and FDU polls. On the other hand, he has slipped in the Gallup tracking poll. Also, he was not impressive in the Ipso and AP polls. He did do well in state polls apart from the Midwest. All in all his slipped almost 4 points to sit at 35.8 %t. Mr. Romney did well in the AP and FDU polls, but he did poorly in the Ipso poll. While his raw numbers did not essentially improve much despite Mr. Gingrich’ slip, Mr. Romney does crack the Twenty-Five per cent mark to sit at 25.6%. Dr. Paul remains in third place and cracks the 10% mark to sit at 10.1%. Both state and national polls seem to suggest that people are giving Mrs. Bachmann a second look as she gains a point and a half to sit at 8% for fourth place. Many analysts have predicted that many would give Mr. Perry a second look if the other candidates slip. Well, people might indeed be giving him a second look, but all he can do is remain essentially steady at 6.7%; he falls behind Mrs. Bachmann to fifth place. Mr. Santorum cracks the four per cent mark to hang on to sixth place.

Mr. Gingich had a particular bad week in the Midwest and Far West and lost about 75 delegates in those two regions. His total loss since the start of the weekend was almost 100 and he sits at 1205. Not a meltdown by any stretch, but a sign that he is starting to slip a bit. Mr. Romney had a particularly good week in the Midwest, gaining 2 points. Michigan is again much more firmly in the Romney column, Wisconsin has also tipped slightly into the Romney camp and he has closed the gap in Iowa. On the other hand, Mr. Romney is flat in the South since the start of last weekend according to state polls and a few regional polls released. He gains 75 delegates to sit at 622. Dr. Paul gains a few delegates to sit at 116. Because of his Southern Strength, Mr. Perry only loses half a dozen delegates to maintain fourth place in the delegate count at 82. Mrs. Bachmann and Mr. Santorum each rise slightly to sit at 65 and 28 delegate respectively.

With both sides claiming victory, more dust must settle before we see the full effect of the recent Iowa debates. Last night Mr. Romney made up for his bet gaffe by giving an excellent answer on abortion. Mr. Gingrich had a few good and bad moment in each debate, but who knows yet how that might effect his standing. We are kind of in an interesting situation where Gallup, arguably one of if not the best polling company showing a race that is tightening, but most other polling companies do not see this tightening beyond the margin of error. So the truth is somewhere in the middle. While Mr. Gingrich still leads, either Mr. Gingrich or Mr. Romney could be the nominee. The Other candidates do not have a realistic chance of becoming the nominee, but together with the Undecided voters, those who support minor candidates will eventually decided the winner with or without a brokerage convention. In order for there to be a brokerage convention, there will most likely have to be a rather strong third place candidate since most minor candidates will eventually drop out of the race well before June. Right now, Dr. Paul would probably not get any delegates in a third of all the states and in the two thirds of the states where he does have delegates, he does not have many. This is because he falls short of the threshold in many states.

To one degree or another, the early states will help set the tone for the nomination race. While Mr. Gingrich’s national slip is still somewhat debatable, it is clear he is slipping in Iowa. A week ago, Mr. Gingrich’ lead in Iowa was at least 12 points; it is now cut to less than 7. I will probably have to look a bit more closely at my state models as we get closer. Meanwhile in New Hampshire, While Mr. Romney still leads comfortably; his current 15 point lead was a bit over 16 last weeks. Certainly not a big slip, but we shall see how the cookie crumbles. As for Dr. Paul, he has gained more than a point in Iowa over the past few weeks and over 2 points in NH over the past few weeks. So we will see if Dr. Paul’s ground game will live up to the expectation game. As for South Carolina, the Governor’s endorsement of Mr. Romney should help him beat expectations there. So the fun begins after Christmas.

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